LA VIkes Fan

OMG, this is depressing. I hate to ask but does this mean that Larnach is not coming back this season? I was kind of hoping he would be the replacement for Cave. Not sure the Billy Hamilton is anything but Cave, a few steps faster, several years older, and with much less power. By the way, whatever happened to Michael Conforto? Last I heard he was targeting a September return. Any chance we can grab him for something less than a contract beyond 2022 and 2023? Maybe a pillow contract to be a DH for this September and playing in the OF next season? This FO previously did a creative deal with the Scott Boras client, I say go for it again!

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen? To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy, The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready. Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen. I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view. What say ye?

Totally agree. Wes Johnson was supposedly really managing the pitching staff in games before he bolted. He wasn't very good at that part of his job and Rocco has been no better. Maki seems to be in a little bit over his head now. I think that getting a better head pitching coach for next year could really help. By the way, is James Rowson available to come back and be the hitting coach?

I agree with one big caveat - I think this team has played to the sum of its parts. My question about Baldelli is that I don't think he has gotten more - here the sum of the whole is NOT more than the sum of its parts. I don't usually agree with Jim Souhan but he is right about this lineup. The top 4/5 of Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Correa and Buxton are above average but they are not great. They are pretty good. More importantly, there is no one superstar hitter among them who can carry a team for a month. All 5 of those guys would be great complimentary hitters around a true middle of the order stud but we don't have that guy. The back half of the lineup is a disaster. Nick Gordon is a nice player hitting a little bit above average and he could start on a contending team hitting in the 7 or 8 hole. Maybe he'll be more next year, maybe less. Urshela is a classic starter on a 2nd division team, utility player/8 or 9 hitter on a contending team. Kepler is fourth outfielder you keep because of his defense. He can't hit well enough to start on a contending team unless he plays CF, not a corner OF, hitting 8 or 9. Celestino is a AAA centerfielder who you hope will make a meaningful contribution one or two years from now. Sanchez is a backup catcher, Leon is a 3rd catcher/AAA depth. Cave and Beckham are at best high minors depth who really shouldn't be on any MLB roster. Garlick is a platoon player who shouldn't get more than 200 ABs a season. The pitching staff is similar to the top 4 or 5 hitters, solid/good but not great. The rotation is fine and could be really good if it had a number 1 starter. But we don't. The bullpen is actually pretty solid 5 to 6 pitchers deep after the trades, but the quality really falls off at the bottom. Add a #1 starter and the pitching might be good enough for a contending team with a good lineup but it's not good enough to carry the weak lineup we have. Yes, injuries have hurt, particularly the back half of the lineup and the bullpen. Yes, we will have more starters and hitters back next year. . Yes there is optimism for next year because of that. All good. This year? We've been playing in June, July and August at only a little below the level of the talent we have; we should really be a slightly above .500 team not a 7 or 8 games under .500 team, but that's really where the talent is on this team IMHO.

I think you evaluate a manager based on where the team performs versus it's talent level. I thought he got max value out of the roster in 2019 and 2020, but got less than full value last year. This year? The tough call with Rocco this year is quantifying the extent to which injuries have hurt the roster, particularly the batting order. I think if healthy this team had 87-90+ win potential, as is more like 81-85. So I think we're kind of playing to our level. Full disclosure - I predicted 78-84 in the preseason poll here but I think that was before we got Correa and I definitely missed out on the dramatic improvements of Arraez, Miranda and Gordon. Fine, ok, not bad. That's my overall impression of Rocco. He's fine - not great, not significantly above average, not bad, not significantly below average, fine. The classic 3 to 3.5 on a scale of 1-5. That could rise if the team goes 25-15 in the last 40 (we're 0-1 so far), drops if we go 15-25. Most likely, we go 21-19 or so and wind up with 82-85 wins. In that case, I think he'll get one more year. And I agree chpetit19 - I'm ok with Rocco staying if there isn't an available Terry Francona type out there with next year being his make or break year. I just don't think baseball managers influence more than a spread of 5-8 wins a year unless they're really good or really bad. I think in baseball about 135 games play out strictly based on talent level and the other 25 or so are management with a 5-8 win spread out there between the best manager and the worst. This is baseball, not football. What I'm really looking for is growth at the FO level to increase creativity and less standardized thinking game after game. I've actually felt like Rocco is trying harder these last few games to lose the script and react to the situation so, as the say, there is no cure but there is hope through research.

I have read that Pagan has options but he also has more than 5 years of MLB time. Asa a result, he can refuse an assignment to AAA and become a free agent if the Twins try to option him down. He also is controllable one more year through arbitration. I think these are the two reasons the Twins still hang on - hope that he can be "fixed' so his production matches the talent and fear that he will leave and another team will fix him. That, and the trade we amde to get him and Paddack. Having said that, this strikes me as the classic chasing after sunk costs combined with a fantasy that the Twins can find value where others can't. It didn't work out here; time to move on. Option him, bring up Moran or Sisk. IF he stays in AAA and collects his $2.3m salary maybe he can be fixed. If not, it's a cost of doing business.

The sabermetrics will tell you that stolen base attempts are not worth it unless you succeed at least 75% of the time. In other words, if you succeed less than 75% of the time you actually hurt your chances of scoring runs overall. A stolen base is a positive play; a caught stealing is a much more negative play. That's the issue. This team has no real speed outside of Buxton and maybe Gordon. I don't count Cave since he should never be on the field except as a late inning pinch runner. Baldelli being true to his computer doesn't like to try to steal bases with anyone else. Part of it is the talent we have, but I agree that part of it is a lack of emphasis in the Minors and in drafting so we have no guys with experience or with the physical tools. By the way, none of this excuses our inability to advance runners with productive outs. That's just bad baseball and bad coaching.

I have to admit that I am a little surprised that Jake Cave is still with the team. He is simply overmatched by average MLB pitching at this point and helpless against quality MLB pitching. My only thought is they're waiting for Garlick to get ready that he will come in with Cave going down on Friday. Which of course gives us no help today or tomorrow. By the way, are Garlick and Larnach playing in St. Paul? Last I heard both were doing "full speed baseball activities" so I don't see why they wouldn't be getting a few at bats in AAA so they can come back up ASAP. We definitely need them both, something that I never thought I would say about Kyle Garlick. I guess the kind of shows where we are in the outfield these days.

To echo what others have said, this is a no-brainer from a business standpoint. Of course he will opt out. The only risk he takes by opting out is that no team, including the Twins, will give him a one-year deal for $35.1 million. There is a small amount of risk but not very much risk given the market for shortstops. I think that the very least he could re-sign a similar deal with the Twins and probably with five or six other teams. There is no rational business reason for him to do anything other than not exercise his player option unless he suffers a really significant injury. The real question is does he want to stay with the Twins long-term. If he does or is at least open to the possibility, this is the off-season for him to try to sign the contract of five years or longer. That's really what we should be talking about, should the Twins give him a 6-8 year deal at $30+ million? I vote yes! I know we have Royce Lewis coming up but there's no reason he couldn't play 3B or LF. I do recognize and appreciate the argument that the same money could and should be used to sign a true #1 starting pitcher. I hear that but the risk is very high in those long-term pitching deals and the Twins have not shown the willingness or the ability to sign those kind of free agent pitchers. I also question whether a true, established #1 starter would come to Minnesota when we just got rid of our highest paid player. Also, I think bringing on Mahle and Gray this year, both of whom I think the Twins can and should re–sign or less than the total of $40 million per year between the two of them, put us in a decent spot with starting pitching when you add in Ryan, Maeda, Ober, and Paddack. Yes, this year is an example of what can happen with injuries to pitchers but that's a risk I'm willing to take. I also think re-signing Correa long-term sends exactly the signal to the market that we want to send. It tells other free agents that were willing to spend for quality, and that we are committed to a long-term winning culture. That gives us a much better shot at getting some free agents, particularly the second tier good but not great players that you need to be a backbone for your team. If I were in charge of the Twins, I would put a competitive 6 or 7 year offer on the table north of $30 million in AAV and see if he can be re-signed.

Thanks for the clarification on Cave. I thought he was out of options. No reason for the DFA then, just option him back to AAA.

I agree there. I don't see any reason to DFA Kepler at all, particularly right now. I am hopeful though that when and if Larnach comes back healthy that he and Gordon see most of the time in the corner OF spots, not Kepler. I suspect that we are going to get some not so great news on Buxton soon though, so all of this may be moot. Gordon may wind up in CF for most of the rest of the season with Buxton at DH or on the IL. We'll be very happy we have Kepler around if that turns out to be the case. Just, please, for the love of all that is good an pure in this world, stop hitting Kepler in the 5 hole! move him back to 7 or 8.

Here's his chance. He pitches well tonight and against the Giants on Sunday and he may have cemented an MLB job for the rest of this year and even next year.

I've actually defended Baldelli but I end to agree here. Whatever is happening now simply isn't working. This team has the talent if healthy to win 90+ games, Even with all of the injuries the Twins are good enough to finish with around 85-88 wins, especially after the trade season. Injuries have hurt a lot but the team just isn't clicking. As we all know, you can fire all of the players so sometimes it's the manager that has to go. I'm not sure if you do the deed now after we get hammered by Houston or wait until the end of the season. My thinking is that September is the acid test. If the Twins perform and either sneak into the playoffs or win the division Baldelli gets one more year. If not, he is thanked for his contributions, offered another good position in the organization, and a different analytically oriented manager with more on field managerial experience replaces him. On balance that's what I would do but I have to say the option of firing him now in the hope that a new manager shakes things up is tempting. I just don't know who that new guy would be.

Absolutely right. I would add Kepler to that first group.

Larnach might not provide much help but there is hope. He was hitting well before the injury dragged him down and had a good walk rate. It will take some games to knock the rust off but I could see him providing a .260/.325/.425 kind of boost down the stretch. Better than Kepler, better than Celestino, more power than Gordon with the same OPS range. Maybe he and Garlick become a platoon in LF (where Laranch rated highly on defense), Gordon can play CF with a Celestino/Kepler platoon in RF since Buxton may need to primarily DH if he can play at all after last night. If Buxton can come back and play CF, Kepler should be the odd man out to be the 4th OF with Gordon playing every day although I don't trust Baldelli to see it the same way. IF performance is the basis and hitting counts more than defense on a team that is having trouble scoring runs, Gordon is the winner over Kepler. Buxton as a full time DH creates an interesting situation since the Miranda/Arraez/Urshela group only has 1B, 3B, and DH to get them all in the lineup. Somehow injuries seem to take care of these things, particularly for this team. My guess is Buxton goes on the 10 day IL this week, Garlick comes up, Larnach is up next week, Cave goes DFA, Beckham goes DFA when Buxton comes back.

The guys that could maybe help are Larnach, Garlick, and Maeda. None may help but Larnach is really the key. If he can hit some, he can essentially be the full time DH/LF. We desperately need another middle of the order bat to hit ahead of Gordon, Urshela and Kepler. If he were to come back and hit, he could really help. And if Buxton is out for awhile we need the help even more. The rest is marginal. Garlick can at least put Kepler on the bench against lefties so that's some help. Maeda can hopefully take some of the stretch innings that would go to Pagan and Megill. Big help? No, but maybe something on the margins. Seems like a game or two may matter so even the margins help. Oh, by the way, I think Aaron Sanchez is actually going to help down the stretch.

Well that was frustrating. So who's worse to have on the roster - Beckham or Cave? The correct answer is . . . yes

Why is Kepler hitting 5th? The guy is something like 5 for his last 55. I get why he plays, but I am astounded that he hits in the middle of the order. For the love of God, put him in the 7 or 8 hole and move up Gordon and Ursehla. Incredibly aggravating.

Well put. It seems like they just don't have somebody who's simultaneously keeping the team loose and at the same time performing and pulling guys up. We miss Nelson Cruz. I know he can't hit any more but it would almost have been worth bringing him back. Same for Eddie. Teh team always seemed to play better when he was in the lineup whether he hit or not. We just don't seem to have that guy right now.

Discussing Kepler's place on the team doesn't equal "hate". I think we're all pretty much on the same page - he's an elite defensive corner OF with a below average bat. I say below average because he's consistently in the high 90s in OPS+ and RF is a bat first position, It's ok to be league average or below OPS+ if you're the catcher, CF or SS, not so much if you play in the corner OF or corner IF. For a lineup to work you need guys who's OPS+ in above 100 or even 110 in the bat first positions. Kepler has only been above 110 once in 2019, and was 109 in 2020. Other than that, always a guy between 95 and 100. The question is how do you improve this lineup? If you can find better bats where do they typically play? That's easy - 1B, 3B, DH, LF and RF. I say keep Kepler until we find somebody better, and then drop him a rung to 4th OF. In the interim, DO NOT hit him in the middle of the order. Hit him 7 or 8, not 4, 5, or 6. He's killing us in the middle of the order - give those spots to Miranda, Gordon, and even Urshela ahead of Kepler. We have to play him because that better guy isn't on the roster right now but might be once Larnach is back this year and if Kirilloff can come back next year. Even if we think they those two can be the good hitting corner OFs we need, I think a good hitting corner OF should be a priority this off season. I think we're mostly just disappointed with Kepler. We all hoped he'd be a great defensive OF who also was a good hitter and he just isn't that guy. And entering his age 30 season, it seems unlikely he will ever be that guy.

i agree with this. I say it slightly differently - we don't have that one guy who can/will carry the team for a month. Same concept though. There is no on field player who puts the team on his back and carries it. Buxton is hurt, Correa isn't that guy, Polanco . . .A great manager like Terry Francona can do that on conjunction with one great player like Jose Ramirez but Baldelli isn't that manager and we don't have that player. It would be great to see one emerge but the time is getting late. . .

Not sure I agree that the only "stars" came from a previous regime. It was this FO that actually created a functional MLB pitching staff by trading for Duran, Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Fullmer, Maeda and Mahle, among others. Of course, they also traded away Rogers for a starter who got hurt and he who shall not be named. They also signed Polanco and Buxton long term and signed Correa as a FA, things the former regime would not have done. They also drafted Miranda, Royce Lewis and Kirilloff - not sure if Larnach was them or the last year of prior regime. I think this FO has a pretty good track record of getting and keeping talent; certainly better than the Ryan II regime. Other than Buxton and Polanco, what talent did this regime inherit? Kepler and Sano were the crown jewels with Polanco and both flamed out. On the pitching side, the only real asset I can recall is Rogers and yes, he should not have been traded at least not for who they got. Maybe Kyle Gibson? I can't really think of anyone else at the MLB level that's a quality MLB player that was inherited. Gordon maybe? I think this FO has a real positive and a real negative. On the positive side they took a team that was threadbare in talent in 2016, added some real MLB talent, greatly improved the minor league pipeline and were able to keep assets around. Ryan wasn't really doing any of those things the second time around. On the negative, their trade record is mixed and the pipeline has yet to produce high end MLB pitching or that superstar hitter, and they really only added two "star" free agents, Cruz and Correa. Overall a mixed bag but I think above average to very good. But let's be honest, Much better than the prior regime.

Good post, Ted. I agree that the lack of a player "stepping up" to lead this team is one of the real issues this season. There really hasn't been a time when one or two hitters have really stepped up and carried the team through a 10-15 game stretch. Having said that, I think the bottom line with this team is that it simply does not have enough talent. I don't agree with Jim Souhan very often but he is right about this lineup. The top 4/5 of Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Correa and Buxton are above average but they are not great. They are pretty good. More importantly, there is no one superstar hitter among them who can carry a team for a month. Correa isn't that guy - he wasn't the MAN in Houston and he's not the MAN now. All 5 of those guys would be great complimentary hitters around a true middle of the order stud but we don't have that guy. The back half of the lineup is a disaster. Nick Gordon is a nice player hitting a little bit above average and he could start on a contending team hitting in the 7 or 8 hole. Urshela is a classic starter on a 2nd division team, utility player/8 or 9 hitter on a contending team. Kepler is fourth outfielder you keep because of his defense. He can't hit. Celestino is a AAA centerfielder who you hope will make a meaningful contribution one or two years from now. Sanchez is a backup catcher, Leon is a 3rd catcher/AAA depth. Cave and Beckham are at best high minors depth who really shouldn't be on any MLB roster. You look in the minors and outside possibly of Helman there's nothing there that can help you this year. The pitching staff is similar to the top 4 or 5 hitters, solid/good but not great. The rotation is fine and could be really good if it had a number 1 starter. But we don't. The bullpen is actually pretty solid 5 to 6 pitchers deep after the trades, but the quality really falls off at the bottom. Add a #1 starter and the pitching might be good enough for a contending team with a good lineup but it's not good enough to carry the weak lineup we have. Yes, injuries have hurt, particularly the back half of the lineup and the bullpen. Yes, we will have more starters next year. Yes there is optimism for next year because of that. All good. This year? We've been playing in June, July and August at only a little below the level of the talent we have; we should really be a slightly above .500 team not a 7 or 8 games under .500 team, but that's really where the talent is. I'd love to see one of the hitters really jump up and carry us for the next couple of weeks. I think we're going to just continue to fade without that happening. If we're being honest, the best bets are really Polanco and Arraez. Correa and Buxton have been lousy with runners in scoring position all season so it's hard to see how that will change and Miranda is just a rookie. Kepler and Urshela just aren't good enough to be more than complimentary hitters at best. Short of someone really popping up to carry this team, I see the Twins continuing this slow fade and winding up somewhere between 82 and 85 wins. Enough to sort of be in contention but finishing 3-4 games outside the playoffs. Hey, it's a great improvement over last year but still would be a tad disappointing

You got that right brother. Can't win if you can't score and I don't see any cavalry riding over the hill. Maaaaybe Larnach gives this lineup a boost in a couple of weeks? That's pretty much the only hope. Any team that has Kepler and/or Urshela hitting anywhere near the top 6 spots in the Batting order has got much bigger problems than the low end of the bullpen.

I'm really hoping that Pagan is given a DFA in order to bring up Aaron Sanchez to start Tuesday in Houston. Starting Sands in Houston has all the earmarks of a complete blowout, and keeping him and Smeltzer the bullpen for long relief actually makes sense with Bundy and Archer's starts coming up. Sands and Smeltzer need to cover some innings when those 2 start. Not only is Pagan not good enough based on performance, he really doesn't fit in the bullpen construction. I really wonder if part of the reason he is still around is the fear that someone in the division like KC or Detroit (or God forbid, Cleveland) will pick him up and "fix" his problems. I just have this sneaking feeling that FO is afraid that if Pagan is given a DFA he will picked up by another organization, and what they really want is to keep him around to see if they can harness that talent. Reasonable thinking for a non-contending team; disaster if you want to contend. Better move is to DFA Pagan, hope he slips through and hope he'll accept going to AAA to try to turn things around. If you lose him, you lose him. Not a big loss.