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LA VIkes Fan

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Everything posted by LA VIkes Fan

  1. LA VIkes Fan
    While I'm not sure about Urshela at clean up, I like the idea of Kepler hitting 9th. He should definitely be there against LH pitching and I think even against RH pitching since it sets up the top 3 in the order. As for the #4 hole, I would rather see sano there with Kiriloff at #5 and Urshela dropping to #6. Against RH pitching, I would expect to see Arraez in 2 hole with Correa and Polanco dropping back one each, Kiriloff at 5, and Urshela at Dh with Sanchez/Jeffers on the bench.
  2. LA VIkes Fan
    What ashbury said. We need controllable quality starting pitching. You have to give something of quality up to get that, something like Rogers. The real question is did we get controllable starting pitching in Paddack. I think so IF he isn't and doesn't get hurt. The "small UCL tear" is a little concerning. If that isn't a problem, I think we got a guy who will slot in as a #3/4 starter with an ERA in high 3s to mid 4s who can go 150 + innings a year. and who might be better than that. Plus we got a reliever who should be average and who also could be more. Giving up a quality reliever near the end of his contract is worth that return. Rooker had no trade value since he was on the verge of being waived so we can't count him as "value" lost. Great trade? No. Fair trade? Yes.
  3. LA VIkes Fan
    I don't see any chance that Ober is going into the bullpen anytime soon. I don't think we have a single starter stretched out to go more than 5 innings, if that. I think we will simply have a 6 man rotation through May as we work through the starters, assuming Archer is stretched to enough to start games. If not, he's the bullpen piece. Ober was brought up from the Minors to be a starter and was very effective in that role with room to grow. Moving Ober to the bullpen would frankly be just be poor roster management. There is no magic to 5 starters, the rules actually allow you to have any size rotation you want. Ober is a picture this team wants to have as a starter for the foreseeable future so that's where he's going to be this year unless he is ineffective. I think we will run a 6 man rotation for the 1st month while we are carrying 16 pitchers and then, and only then, will we be making some changes or thinking about moving anyone to the bullpen from these top 6.
  4. LA VIkes Fan
    Based on your analysis that the separation between Paddack and our other 6–8 starters isn't significant, I understand your concern. I'm kind of assuming that the 6-8 starters for 2022 are Winder, and some combination of Smeltzer, Balazovic (IL), Sanchez. Henriquez and Megill since that's who seems to be starting at AAA. Maybe in 2023 you could add Strotman, SWR, Varland, and Canterino, who are opening at AA, but probably not this year. If you accept that list, where I would disagree as I think Paddack is significantly better than anyone on that list except for Winder and maybe SWR or Caterino, both of whom are probably a full year away. So I think the play here is twofold. This year Paddack adds starting pitching depth that we will undoubtedly need given the 5 starters we have. I would expect both Winder and Paddack to get a minimum of 10 to 15 start each if only for injury and innings limits. That assumes everybody's reasonably effective and I think the odds on that with Bundy and Archer in the rotation are not real great. I think next year Bundy and/or Archer are gone, Winder and Paddack are in the rotation. So this year he's needed depth and the expectation next year he is in the rotation every 5th day. Now all of that can go south if he gets hurt or is ineffective so there is risk. Is that risk worth one year of Taylor Rogers (I think it's a fair assumption that he would not be re-signed by the Twins once he hits the open market)? I think so but recognize that reasonable minds can differ.
  5. LA VIkes Fan
    The issue here is how one evaluates Paddack. Rooker for Pagan is a solid win for the Twins. If Patick is what he was in 2019, Paddack for Rogers is a win for the Twins. Starters are worth more than relievers. If Paddack is what he was in 2021, FIP notwithstanding, it’s a clear win for the Padres. As with many things, I think Paddack is going to turn out to be somewhere in between those two years, essentially a number 3/4 starter who gives us 150+ innings a year with an ERA from the high 3s to the low 4s. I think that means that the Padres win that end of the trade and it winds up about even overall given the different years of control. I don’t like losing Rodgers. Still, three years of Paddack could actually be a very good thing If he turns out better than I am thinking and a pretty good thing if he hits the mark I’m anticipating. In short, we improved the rotation at the expense of the bullpen and I’m OK with that.
  6. LA VIkes Fan
    Marisnick might be what they need short term as a good fielding RH OF, except he is a lousy hitter - .216/.286.385 (.671) for his career. I don't know if he has good splits against lefties to help platoon with Kepler in right. Still, he's a better fit for what this team needs than wither Garlick or Rooker. My guess is that he or someone like him will fill the last spot on the roster.
  7. LA VIkes Fan
    Over/under at 83. A lot of IFs need to come true to hit more than 85. I predict 84-78, playoff contention but no playoff spot, and Correa is one and done.
  8. LA VIkes Fan
    Upton might very well be worth a look, especially if we consider our other options. If we go on ST performance, neither Rooker (.063/.211/.125) or Garlick (.037/.161/.037) should be in the MLB discussion, and maybe not even in the "should we care if they stay in the organization" discussion. I know ST isn't the best indicator always but for guys fighting for a roster spot they are sure stinking up the joint. If they can't handle the make the team in ST pressure it's hard to see how they will handle the pressure of playing games that actually matter. Also, by the way Jax (13.50 ERA), Velez (27.00) and Romero (6.75) gave up 9 earned runs (6 by Jax) in the last 3 innings to cost us the last ST game. I don't care about the game but I just hope those 3 are not on the MLB roster on Opening Day (although I guess Romero might be). Sheesh. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that out RH hitting 4t OF is not on the team right now but will be Upton or someone grabbed on waivers from another team. Rooker gets waived for the 40 man spot and probably gets through (not a big deal if lost) and Garclick is assigned to the AAA team or released. By the way, I think this is the right answer.
  9. LA VIkes Fan
    Sounds like the saw Godoy and decided he wasn't the LH hitting catcher they need, so they moved on to Cisco. Better pedigree, but not much performance at the plate. The 2nd/3rd/AAA insurance LH hitting catcher carousel may just keep spinning for awhile. And who knows, Godoy may wind up in St. Paul or Wichita if he liked us and we liked him enough. A little scary though, because it now appears that Sanchez will catch at least 2 days a week. I think it's Garlick over Rooker on merit. I'm guessing that the Twins will wait until the last second to run Rooker through waivers and hope that he gets by in the crush of waived players in a day or so. Not a big deal if he doesn't since he only fits on a bad team roster like Oakland or Baltimore. Anyone else will just have to waive him again in a month. Still, the extra 2 guys until May 1 might give a team a spot to stash him and see what they got. Finally, I'm a little surprised that Smeltzer didn't make the club given his ST performance. I guess the Twins have decide to make him a starter in AAA, stretch him out, and have him be the 7th or 8th starter this year. I'm assuming Winder is starter #6, Duran is now in the bullpen for at least a season, so who's #7? Smeltzer may fit in there over Strotman, Balazovic and Sands, at least for now. We will go through at least 8 or 9 starters so I see Smeltzer getting 5-10 starts this year, more if he's effective. Gray is the only 160-180 IP guy in the rotation now, if even him, so there will be plenty of starts to go around.
  10. LA VIkes Fan
    Great idea, but the Dodgers just traded Pollack for Kimbrel so they’re short a 4th OF. I thunk Pillar makes the Dodger team.
  11. LA VIkes Fan
    Another good day on the mound for Smeltzer - 4 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 SO, 2 BB. My money is on Smeltzer to be an add on to the 40 man and to go north with the team, Either a waiver of Rooker or Enlow on the 60 day IL accomplishes the task.
  12. LA VIkes Fan
    Thats right, it was George “scrap iron” Godiski. He and Kenny could never beat the Vachon brothers - Butcher and Mad Dog- in a tag team match.
  13. LA VIkes Fan
    Wow, a Kenny 'Sodbuster' Jay reference. I think he was also known as the "scrappy" Kenny Jay or was that the scrappy Geroge Godaski?
  14. LA VIkes Fan
    Slight disagreement on OFs and pitchers. Catchers: Ryan Jeffers, Jose Godoy, Gary Sanchez Infielders: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Gio Urshela, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, Daniel Roberton (NRI) Outfielders: Alex Kirilloff, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Kyle Garlick or FA RH OF, Jake Cave (NRI), Brent Rooker (IL) Pitchers: Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Jharel Cotton, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Smith, Cody Stashak, Jovani Moran, Jhon Romero, Devin Smeltzer, Danny Coulombe (NRI), Jake Faria (NRI), Devin Smeltzer (NRI), Josh Winder (#1 starter in AAA) OF - Garlick or FA RH hitting OF from another team in, Rooker on IL to start season, then to AAA rehab assignment, then decision. Depends on if someone decent comes available. P - Smeltzer in as a long man, WInder as starter in St. Paul, although could see WInder as piggyback/long man on a 5 day schedule with Jax going down. I think they want Winder on a 5 day "starter Schedule" because he's the #6 starter. May need him sooner rather than later with the question marks around Bundy and Archer. I still think there's a possibility that Colulombe makes team instead of Stashak or Duran. 40 Man Issues - Enlow goes on 60 day IL as corresponding move for Smeltzer on 40 man. Corresponding move for Coulombe harder to find, does putting Rooker on 15 day IL open a spot? If not, maybe Rooker goes on 60 day IL or a trade happens. May need Rooker's 40 man spot for Garlick and my mythical FA RH OF from another team so Coloumbe may be out of luck absent an IL move for someone else. Then he's AAA depth.
  15. LA VIkes Fan
    Kepler will start in RF until Larnach or Celestino is ready to take over. Unfortunately his contact is too rich for the 4th OF spot, so he will then have to be cut, traded, or his contract re-done.
  16. LA VIkes Fan
    I agree, I don't see Sanchez as anything more than an occasional catcher, backup 1B, and DH. How much he plays depends entirely on how much he hits and he gets to DH a lot if he its, not catch. Godoy is the 2nd catcher - LH hitter, good defender.
  17. LA VIkes Fan
    I think Godoy makes the team as a 2nd/3rd Catcher while they decide if Sanchez can field the position well enough to play him behind the plate. That's probably why Sanchez is seeing significant time behind the plate during spring training. After the 1st month of the season, if Sanchez is hitting he stays as a right-handed bench bat/occasional catcher with Jeffers and Godoy doing most of the catching. I think this actually makes the most sense because no one is really being blocked; Larnach, Rooker and Miranda all need regular at bats to prove they belong and they won't get them on this roster. I think Larnach and Miranda are back up reasonably soon due to an injury and the ineffectiveness of someone else, I don't think much of Rooker as a long-term player for this team. That still leaves open the question of who's going to be the 4th outfielder/right-handed bat to be a reserve and replace Kepler if he once again can't hit left-handed pitching. It's starting to look more and more like Garlick will be that player but I'm hopeful that someone better will become available through waivers or a minor trade as we get closer to the start of the season and teams struggle with issues regarding their 40 man roster spots. Gordon is the backup centerfielder with Celestino playing CF every day in AAA until Buxton hits the injured list. Finally, I like Winder a lot but I think there is no room at the inn for him to be in the starting rotation. I think he goes AAA as the "6th starter" and is the 1st 1 up. I think they want to build up his innings as a starter and not put him in the bullpen since none of the 5 in the rotation are likely candidates for a "piggyback" situation. I would actually like to see Smeltzer make the team given his performance in spring training after last year's injury issues. We are going to need long relievers at the beginning of the season and he looks like the best one we have. Jax also makes the opening roster for the same reason. If I'm counting right, that means two of Stashack, Moran and Duran go down - my guess is Duran and Moran.
  18. LA VIkes Fan
    The #9 hole hitter is easy to me - it's Kepler. Good speed, decent OBP, occasional power, low average. Don't want him hitting in the top 6 because his low batting average hurts us from capitalizing on run scoring opportunities. Since we want to tur over the lineup to the top 3 or 4 with men on base, he's the best asset in the 9 hole.
  19. LA VIkes Fan
    It's really a 5 man bench to me with one of them filling the DH role every day. Sanchez is a lock unless we can find a way to trade him. I would love to trade him for a RP because he's the one blocking Miranda, Larnach, et al. He's too big a defensive liability to play behind the plate often and he doesn't hit enough to regularly DH. Let's face it, we got stuck with Sanchez as the price for the Yankees eating all of Donaldson's contract. The problem is there's no market for him so Twins will try to get him hitting again like it's 2107 or 2019 before they give up. Arraez is also a lock for the reasons in the article. I hope he's the DH a whole lot more often than Sanchez. I think the last 3 are Gordon, Godoy and either Garlick or a player not currently on the team who hits RH and plays a passable LF/RF. We need Gordon to back up the middle IF and CF, and Godoy as the 2nd not 3rd Catcher (that's Sanchez). We need a RH hitting OF to play against lefties for Kepler and give Kirilloff a break. We don't have that guy yet. Rooker is a butcher in the field and can't hit. Send him to AAA. Garlick is another poor OF but he can hit LH pitching. He isn't really good enough to make the team and I think we will be looking for an upgrade if one becomes available when cuts start happening next week. I'm not just sure one will be available. Larnach and Miranda need to be playing regularly. They go to AAA unless there's a significant trade. Both will be up playing regularly for the Twins at some point this season due to injury or ineffectiveness of others. Rooker also goes to AAA but I think he's unlikely to be an MLB player so he's the third or 4th call up and may wind up with another team before season's end as a trade add or lost on waivers.
  20. LA VIkes Fan
    Why Rooker on the 28 man? Has he shown something in ST other than what we saw last year? He should be in AAA learning to control the strike zone and honing his swing. He was good but not great in 2019, his last year in the minors - good counting stats with a .933 OPS but 95 SOs in 274 PAs. (33.5%). Guys that SO 33.5% in AAA are going to SO 33% in the Majors like Rooker did in 2021. Can't play a guy who strikes out 33% unless he hits 35+ HRs or ha a >850 OPS, and you can't play that guy, Sano, and Sanchez. Rooker has not yet completely conquered the minors or forced his way up. Send him down. It's likely he will get through waivers if that's necessary. I say there are 2 much better choices. One is to keep Godoy as the 2nd C so that Sanchez (3rd C) doesn't see the field much and only DHs 2 or 3 times a week. Godoy hits LH, is pretty good defensively and project to a .687 OPS - not great but not horrible for a Catcher. The other is to to keep up Miranda if we can find him some playing time somewhere, maybe LF. He did force his way up last year with his performance. He deserves a shot. Let's reward performance and actually fill our roster needs. Miranda has performed. Godoy fills a need. Rooker does neither.
  21. LA VIkes Fan
    Agreed. To me "competitive" means over .500 at the break with a shot at winning 85-88 games. I think this team is good enough to do that and maybe a little more. I also think this team could fall flat on its face and win 72-75 games again. My over/under is 83 wins.
  22. LA VIkes Fan
    Interesting that Thorpe cleared waivers.... Is it possible that we all overestimated the value of one of our prospects again? Glad we were able to keep him in the organization. Seems like there has to be a MLB pitcher in there some where.
  23. LA VIkes Fan
    I like it in the sense that we now have at least some cover if Bundy, Ober or Ryan flame out early. Sounds like Winder starts the season in AAA and is the first call up in the case of injury or ineffectiveness. Prevents us from having to have 3 guys who are basically rookies in the top 5. There will be plenty of opportunities for Winder, Balazovic and Duran this season with innings limitations, ineffectiveness, and injury. Those 3 can start out in AAA and sort themselves out in order in the Minors. Besides, there is some potential upside here. Archer is 3 years away from being an effective MLB starter, with 2018 the last last decent year. He lost most of 2019 to a shoulder injury, and then part of 2020 and all of 2021 to a hip injury (likely because he changed his motion due to the shoulder issue). IF that's now all ok, a big IF, maybe he rebounds to a 3.75-4.25 ERA, 130-150 IP performance like he used to have before the injury. Not great, but plenty good enough for a #5 starter.
  24. LA VIkes Fan
    Arraez is the issue, high OBP but poor running speed makes it hard to hit him in front of Buxton, Polanco and Correa to start off the game. We want the top three guys free to wreak havoc on the bases when possible. How about hitting Arraez on the #6 or #7 hole and putting Kepler in the #9 hole, aka the second leadoff spot? Something like this - Buxton (CF), Polanco (2B), Correa (SS), Kirilloff (LF), Sano (1B), Urshela/Miranda (3B/DH), Arraez/Miranda (3B/DH), Jeffers/Sanchez/Godoy (C), Kepler (RF). Kepler's decent but not great OBP skills should open up more RBI opportunities for the front 1/3 of the order, and it helps hide his low batting average. It also makes it easier to play bench players without changing the batting order much - Gordon, Larnach or whoever is the 4th OF, and Miranda slot in where Kepler, Urshela or Arraez is, etc. You could get the same result by leading off Kepler but he doesn't have the OBP for the leadoff spot yet it's pretty good for a #9 guy. He also will be after the high SO/low OBP catching group so it's likely he will come up with no one base a lot if not most of the time. It's also a reflection of what Kepler is as a player - excellent defense, occasional power, low BA player, who walks a lot and runs well. Not good enough to hit in the front 6 of a solid batting order but good enough to start and play a lot, especially against RH pitching,
  25. LA VIkes Fan
    What about Smeltzer making the team as an opener/5thstrater/long reliever? He seems to be having a very good spring. HE also went 3 innings last time out. Glad to see you don't have CHi Chi Gonzalez on the team. I actually think there was thought that he cold be a #5 starter. They're actually stretching him out and he started against ATL. God help us if he gets any time on the big league level...
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