LA VIkes Fan

I live in LA. Bundy was the Second Coming in 2020, a number two at the bottom of the bowl in 2021. Worth a shot, particularly on that contract. We've all identified the same problem As one of 3 trades/FA signings where the other 2 are better, not a bad thing to do. As the only one, terrible off season. The off season has a ways to go . We're just going to have to wait this out. No way to make a fair evaluation or decision until February.

I'm fine with the idea of trading Kepler. He's an above average fielding, below average hitting corner OF with some power, that could be an average fielding CF. In short, he's replaceable, The idea of trading Lewis is tough but we need to remember one thing. We have Lewis, Miranda and Martin, al of whom are IFs, probably not SSs, and their ability to play CF just got a little less important since we now think (hope against hope?) that Buxton is the CF for the next 7 years. I think we can trade one of them. Trading one for a high upside controllable SP is not the worst idea I've ever heard. I'd rather keep Lewis and give up Larnach or Miranda, but trading one of Martin, Miranda or Lewis should definitely be a possibility for the right starting pitcher.

Why not do this? We take a shot at a reliever with a 96 mph fastball; cut him if we can't make him more consistent. Who cares about Cave? He gets 300k a year - chump change by MLB standards - and we see if he can somehow come back to where he was in 2018/2019 when he looked like an upgrade over Kepler. And if Cave hits .200 in AAA we lose him. Until then he's insurance in case Celestino isn't ready to be the backup CF/4th OF. All makes sense. All of this is just a reminder that we have to break out of the 24 hour news cycle and give things time to play out. Good idea, but hard to do, I had my pitchfork out when Cave was signed and couldn't understand why the FO wasn't talking to Buxton. Those idiots!! Then it turned out that they were talking to Buxton all along and signed him to a contract that actually seems to make sense for both sides and kept a guy who has shown some promise at the big league level that they could stash in the minors. Now I'm furious that they haven't signed or traded for a FA starting pitcher or closer when we need at least 3 of the former and one of the latter. Those morons! All the good ones are either gone or going to be gone soon! Hmmmm, maybe I should wait a few weeks before I decide whether the FO moves back to the idiot category....

I like the moves but I agree with the first poster that your salary for Knebel is waaaaay too low. He is much more likely to get $7-10m after his performance for the Dodgers. The $5m salary for him you project would be a steal. While I would also prefer Montas or Bassitt over Maneaa, and would be willing to give up more to get Montas, the cost for Montas is going to be very high and Bassitt is 32 years old, 33 in February. So I would switch to a deal with the Reds, trading Larnach, Strotman and Cole Sands for Sonny Gray. I would give them Winder as well if they swap out Mahle for Gray but I don't think that's enough. I think that the only way to get Mahle would be to trade Miranda or Martin in conjunction with a pitcher like Strotman or even Winder and I don't want to do that. Arguably though, we have Lewis, Martin and Miranda as IF coming up with Polanco still relatively young and Buxton hopefully playing CF for the long term. One of those 3 could be made available if we get young, controllable pitching in return - like Mahle. I would do a Mahle for Martin or Mirnada straight up but I don't think that's enough for the Reds. So bottom line, the package for Gray or Miranda (or Martin) for Mahle. I like the rest.

Manaea would be great to get, but ONLY if he can be signed to at least a 2-3 year type deal past 2022. Otherwise, the cost is way too much for a one year mid rotation rental for a team that is unlikely to be a true contender next year. I'd rather pay more in prospects/players if we need to and get Montas, Bassitt, or one of the controllable starters from Miami. I think a good scenario for next year is to turn over the roster a bit, get younger, and be an up and coming team in 2022 who we hope makes the playoffs but isn't a WS contender on their way to true contention in 2022-2025. That means only getting youngerish pitchers with at least 2-3 year contracts or control, and being willing to trade Sano, Kepler, Garver, and Donaldson. Oh yeah, by the way, and SIGNING BUXTON to a longer term deal. I agree that we may be seeing the FO strategy in the Twins' lack of involvement on free agent pitching to date. It looks like either (1) the team is going to try to get pitching in trades and maybe signs a #3/4 type as a FA, or (2) we are going to add Pineda and maybe one other Pineda type and then roll with our own young guys in 2022. I hope it's number 1 but we may be looking at number 2, so to speak.

Excellent idea. I didn’t realize he was that good with the glove. If you’re right and he can field at an above average big league SS level, he is now my first choice. Like you, I think the Twins need to spend all of their money on pitching and sign a one year stopgap shortstop. I like Goodrum much better than Jose Iglesias, who stunk for the Angels last year, Freddie Galvis, wants to go to Philadelphia, and Simmons, who cant hit and just a little too weird for my liking.

Excellent point and one I couldn't really address with my limited knowledge. My thinking is that once the FO decides how many spots they need for free agents, that the next players sent packing are Thorpe, Stashak, Garza, and Smeltzer. Each without a corresponding add so the spots stay open. I think Cave and Astudillo are already all but gone. No one should be surprised when they are DFA'd in the next few weeks. The shock would be if either one is retained on the 40 man roster. Keeping either one on the 40 man would be a very bad decision.

Can someone tell me if I'm doing this right? I went to twinsbaseball.com and they show 38 players on the 40 man roster including the 8 on the 60 day DL. We start there. Next, I would then remove Cave, Astudillo, and Garlick. All easy calls, all possible MiLB contract signers with some team and it could be the Twins if we want them back. Now we're down to 35. The top 5 players on Seth's list are all more important to the Twins both long and short term than those 3 guys. The FO should be able to make this decision in their sleep or over coffee. Now we're back up to 40. So far, no really tough decision to make. NOW, we get to the hard part. Are any of Vallimont, Gore, Hamilton. Palacios, etc. more important to keep than Smeltzer, Thorpe, Rooker, Strotman, Jax, Garza, Dobnak or Barnes? That's the choice. My choice would be to drop Thorpe and Barnes, replace them with Vallimont and Gore. Thereafter, the questions are who might get drafted and would we rather have them than Garza, Smeltzer, or Minaya, and do we need open spots for free agents. It seems logical to me that the best thing to draft/easiest to stash guy for a bad team with a longer term horizon is a pitcher; even better is an injured pitcher. Utility guy comes next. With that mindset, I do 2 things. First, I trade Rooker or Larnach together with Sano or Kepler for a combination of one MLB ready pitcher and younger non-40 man prospect(s). Opens 1 spot. I leave it open for a FA. If I need more spots, I drop Smeltzer, then Garza, and I keep Minaya. If I can't swing a trade, I drop Smeltzer, Garza and Rooker in that order (hoping to re-sign them to MiLB deals), and keep Palacios first, then Hamilton, then Schulfer. Not sure I'd trade Hamilton for Garza or Rooker for Schulfer so I might stop before or right after Hamilton. Take my chances with the rest.

I hear your point about a 7 year deal, but I disagree that to justify the contract Berrios has to pitch like an ace. $20 a year is not the price for an "ace" starter – that is closer to $25 million-$30 million a year. For $20 million a year in today's MLB, you get a solid to strong #2 starter. Not an ace, not even an average#1 starter, you get a good #2 starter. Toronto now has two good #2 starters in Ryu and Berrios, each at $20 million a year, but they don't have that ace unless Robbie Ray comes back and is the same guy he was last year (unlikely on both counts). I actually think that's a very viable strategy and applaud the Blue Jays for their moves. As for the Twins, looks like the strategy is to try to buy time for a year or two with a couple guys like Pineda and hope that the pitching fills out through guys that are presently in the minors or acquired through trades. The problem is the lineup will be gone/aged out by the time the pitching is ready to contend. That's why I think the likely move is to start dropping contracts and players from the lineup for prospects. I'm afraid we are becoming another Cleveland without the pitching pipeline. The 2022 Twins – Get To Know 'Em!

Well, it sure looks like the kind of deal that the Twins that should have been willing and able to make either last year or this off-season. Add into that the fact that Thor has signed a one-year deal with the Angels for $21 million and I think we know the price of pitching this off-season. Any thoughts of Stroman or Ray signing for less than $22 – 25 million a season over at least three or four years, and probably more like five, are gone. Even guys like Jon Gray are going to cost more like $17 million a year, not $14 or 15 million a year. It is a tough day to be a Twins fan. It is becoming more and more clear that the current regime is either badly underestimating the market cost for starting pitching of various types or ownership is unwilling to commit to the market price for pitching. We can all rail about how these guys are "overpaid" or "not worth the money" but frankly that's all irrelevant noise. The market is what the market is. We can either pay the market price and in the case of the Twins, probably a small premium over that due to the weather, last year's bad results, and the lack of ancillary financial opportunities, or we simply won't get anyone. Given that the Twins don't even seem to have been in on what appear to be not overly generous contracts to Rodriguez and Thor, and were not really in on what now appears to be a reasonable price to Berrios before trading him, it is very hard to imagine that the team will belong to pay the necessary freight to sign even a second tier free-agent starting pitcher. I think the next couple of weeks before the current CBA expires and all free-agent activity stops will be fascinating for the Twins. The timetable is now accelerated; they have to make a decision as to whether we want to be competitive in 2022/2023, or tear it all down and go into a full rebuild. I really think it's a binary choice. To me, some middle ground where we sign a couple of number three type starters and proclaim that were ready to go is not only a bad choice, it's effectively a rebuild. Maybe I'm wrong and we are close to a trade for Sonny Gray or Castillo from the Reds, or maybe someone from Miami, but it sure looks like we are out of the free agency sweepstakes almost before it even really began. My prediction (admittedly based upon being irritated by today's news ) - this is the start of the teardown. We won't be able to sign Buxton and he will be traded. Once that happens, we will trade Donaldson rather than pay him $25 million to hit 4th on a sub .500 team. The FO will gush about the "great" prospect return for those two, and move forward with trading either Sano, Garver or Kepler, or perhaps all three, for more prospects. The cycle starts anew. The sad thing is that I could get behind that strategy if the team was honest and said we think we need to tear down and rebuild. What makes this hard to stomach is the public statements about how were going to reload and be competitive in 2022, followed by news that shows we aren't really even making an effort to reload. The good news is I live in Southern California so if Thor works out, maybe the Angels will be fun to watch this year for change.

Interesting. I know Sano is a lousy 1B, but we have no where else to play him if we keep Donaldson. Donaldson needs at least 50-60 games at DH if we want 140 games from him and Sano isn't worth keeping if he's only going to play 80-90 games a year at Dh at a few at 1B. This conundrum plus the need to find a place to give Miranda a chance has me thinking more and more that we should trade one of those two guys. I just think it's really hard to keep both on the team, unless you play Sano at 1B, Donaldson/Arraez/Miranda at 3B/DH and Kirilloff/Arraez in LF. Perhaps not the best approach.

Guys, unless there is a trade we already know who is going to play LF next season - Alex Kirilloff. Think about how the roster is presently constructed. Sano is going to play virtually every day absent injury and he can only play IB or DH. Same for Donaldson, and he can only play 3B or DH, an probably needs to DH at least 40-50% of the time. They want to keep Arraez' bat in the lineup and he can only really play 2B, 3B or DH. Polanco is our best player and he will get 140 games next year at 2B. Kepler is the everyday RF with some platoon from a RH hitter. So where's the room for Kirilloff to be an everyday player on the present roster? Left Field and only Left Field. Obviously, a trade would change everything and potentially open up IB or RF for Kirilloff if Sano or Kepler are traded, or if Donaldson is traded and Sano becomes a full time DH with Arraez and Miranda sharing 3B. At this point, the only trades involving these guys that make sense are either a trade of Sano, Polanco, Arraez or Kepler PLUS young MiLB talent (probably pitching) for young controllable MLB pitching, or a salary dump trade of Donaldson to open up payroll space to sign a free-agent pitcher. The 1st seems unlikely because Sano, Arraez, and Kepler just don't have that much value to anyone other than a hitting starved team like Miami, and they won't trade Polanco's team friendly contract unless there is an unlikely pitching overpay by someone. The 2nd seems unlikely if the team/FO is being honest that they intend to try to contend in 2022. Trading Donaldson would be equivalent to putting out a sign that says "2022 is a development year, hopefully we'll contend by 2023 or more likely 2024." While both scenarios could happen, I think the odds are at least 60/40 that neither will happen and that next year's opening day roster will include Donaldson, Kepler, Sano, Arraez and Polanco, each of whom the team will be looking to get at least 500 to 550 plate appearances. that leaves LF as the ONLY option to get 500+ ABs for Kirilloff. The good news is that a healthy Kirilloff in LF should substantially improve the team's standing in the statistical rankings for that position. I think we can reasonably expect a baseline of .270-.280/ .330-.350/.450+ from him if he stays healthy. I think Celestino is the team's 4th OF and he will get some play in LF. Larnach will at least start the season in AAA and probably doesn't come up to the majors unless there is an injury or we have another lousy season and they want to give him at bats in August or September. I think the team is seen enough of Rooker for the time being and he will either be with someone else if taken in the Rule 5 draft, or he will get another year at AAA to try to boost his standing and hope that Martin, de la Trinidad, Contreras, etc. don't pass him up. So, there just is no room at the Inn for a guy like Canha, Conforto, or for the guy I would like to see come back, Eddie Rosario. Lucas is right that we need improved production from LF. I think we will get it and get it from Alex Kirilloff. I think the Twins should spend all of their free agent money on pitching, pitching, and more pitching, plus a stopgap shortstop, and not on anything else. The good news is is at least they declined the option on Colome. That represents a good start.

I could see signing Gray to a 3-5 year 15-17m a year kind of contract. Not sure if those numbers are high enough, but I think they might be. He would slot in as a #2/3 along with Pineda. This works IF the Twins go out and sign at least a semi-legit #1 like Stroman or Ray, or trade for that guy. Alternatively, sign Jon Gray and Pineda, and trade for Sonny Gray. Yes, that's a rotation of #2/#3 types followed by young kids. It might be more doable and that kind of rotation can get you into the playoffs in the short term. Long term, one of the kids has to develop into Berrios or better. Not sure if we have that pitcher but may be we do....

I agree with the grades and I think we already know 2/3 of next year's OF - Buxton in CF and Kirilloff in LF (Sano isn't tradeable and he has to play 1B so Donaldson can get 80 games a year at DH). Kepler is really the wild card going into next season. I think he is what he is and what you described, a low avg., low OBP, decent power, strong defensive OF. In other words, the perfect 4th OF on a contending team who gets 350-400 ABs a year playing all three OF positions, occasional DH, and LH pinch hitter. The question is whether there's anyone who can be that 3rd OF and take his job. Watch Celestino, he's the one possibility I see. Hit well in AAA after he was sent back, could start as the 4th OF this year and slowly squeeze Max out of the starting lineup to the bench. Larnach is another year away. Rooker is trade bait or AAA home run champion but he isn't an everyday MLB player.

That might have been me but don't let me take someone else's credit. Regardless of from whence it came, the conundrum is clear: we have a lineup that appears capable competing now and for the next 2 – 4 years, paired with a pitching staff that absent outside of multiple free agents or trades is not capable of competing that same time frame. If that's correct, the logical choices seem to be to either trade away our more veteran position players for prospects/controllable pitching with a plan to compete starting in 2003 or 2024, more likely not until 2024, or import pitching so we can compete in 2022 and 2023, and perhaps beyond. Both approaches have pluses and minuses. That's why I think the key issue this off-season will be whether or not we can sign Byron Buxton into a long term deal. He is the key position player to make and keep that lineup competitive. With him, all we really need is good health and some incremental development from guys like Kirilloff and we have a top 10 and perhaps a top 5 offensive team. Add in a strong defensive SS and the defense jumps into the top half and maybe even higher. Without him, the lineup is probably top half at best and without him and without a strong defensive SS, the lineup is mediocre at best defensively. I really think the FO has to pick a path and stick to it. If competing in the short term is the goal, Cody is right. We need to overpay if necessary to sign a top tier starter, plus sign (John Gray) or trade for a #2 like Alcantra (in a trade that does not involve trading Kirilloff, Lewis or Martin, everybody else is available), sign Pineda to be the #3 and then use Ober and Ryan, WInder, Dobnak, etc. as the backend of the rotation. We also need to sign at least a Freddie Galvis type to play short. If that isn't viable or the FO decides the long-term development route is the way to go, then the path is also pretty clear. Trade Buxton in the off-season for pitching, pitching and more pitching. Trade Donaldson and promote Miranda, sign Rogers to an arbitration deal and hope he is healthy enough to trade for big return at the deadline, at least explore the trade market for Sano and Kepler in return for pitching, even if it's prospects, and consider whether trading Polanco gets you enough to approximate his pretty high value. I don't like this latter approach as a fan, but I could at least understand it if you went full bore on development, promoted guys even if they're not quite ready, and pushed the process as quickly as possible . What I can't understand is playing it halfway in between. My vote is to sign Buxton, sign Stroman (overpaying if you must), trade real prospects plus Kepler or Sano for Alcantra, keep Donaldson, and sign Galvis or Iglesias. Let's compete next season, if there is a next season.

Like Graveman, but doubt the Astros will let him go. Knebel.

I think the only way Kirilloff is the everyday 1B next year is if Sano or Donaldson is gone. Think about it. Sano can only play 1B or DH. Donaldson has to DH at least 50-60 games or more if we want 135 games a year out of him and I think that's an absolute necessity to compete. Arraez needs 30 games at DH to save his knees, so that only leaves a max of 70-80 DH games for Sano. He will play every day. I think Sano is your everyday 1B unless either he or Donaldson gets traded and I think that's a low probability. The good news is that Kirilloff can play LF and play it better than Larnach or Rooker. There's no one else pushing for that spot so Kirilloff in LF makes a great deal of sense to me. That's the only way you can get Kirilloff, Donaldson, Sao, and Arraez all in the lineup at the same time.

Interesting article, but I don't think that there's a binary choice here of Rooker or Gralick. Frankly, I don't either one of them will make the MLB team and I think that's the right answer. By the time you have the 8 starters in the field plus Arraez, Celestino or another 4th OF, Jeffers as the 2nd catcher and 13 pitchers, there's only 2 spots left. I expect Gordon to get one of them - he showed more this year than Larnach or Rooker. I think that last spot on the roster comes down to Mranda (my choice), Refsnyder, Larnach or Rooker (Kirilloff is the LF and I think Astudillo and Cave are gone). I think Rooker finishes no higher than 3rd in that pecking order and I would say 4th. The only way he stays is if we trade Kepler or Sano with high upside MiLB players for starting pitching in the off season. Then, Rooker as a 5th OF/backup 1B/ part time DH might work but even then I'm dubious with the other 3 all better choices.

Great post. The real problem is that the pitching and lineup are not in sync on the development curve. The lineup is close to being ready to compete and might be if Buxton plays 140 games. The pitching, both ends but particularly the rotation, is not. By the time the presently in house pitching is ready (if ever, always a crapshoot), the lineup will be too old or too expensive. So, which way do we go? I say we compete, mostly because I think we have enough on the farm to make a decent trade or two. On the 6 questions: (1) Lewis or Palacios may be the long term solution so this next year we sign a stop gap. Freddy Galvis or Iglesias make sense. Save the $$$ for pitching. (2) 2 new starters at a minimum, 3 if re-signing Pineda counts as "new". Sign one premium free agent like Stroman, Rondon or Jon Gray to a 3-5 year deal. Stay away from older types like Verlander or Greinke. Stay far, far away from not quite there types like Alex Cobb or Danny Duffy. That spot goes to Pineda. Trade for one more starter - Alcantara or Rogers from Miami, Zach Gallen, someone like that and don't be afraid to part with real non-pitching assets like Martin or Miranda in combo with Kepler or Sano to get a good, young controllable starter. Re-sign Pineda. Rotation goes Stroman, Alcantara, Pineda, Ober, Ryan. Don't worry about the other prospects getting an MLB chance in 2022; there will be plenty of IL time, etc. available for the others like Balazovic, Winder, Strotman, etc. to get a chance to show what they can do at the MLB level. (3) Go to arbitration with Rogers and pay him. If he appears healthy try to negotiate a 2-3 year deal by the AS break and if you can't, keep him if you're in contention, trade him if you aren't. If he isn't able to go physically, eat the arb salary with a smile - it was worth the shot. (4) Don't play reliever roulette - keep the 6 guys mentioned, use guys like Jax or a FA to fill out the pen. Keep Colome but only if Rocco promises he'll use a "closer by situation" approach, not a "Colome every time" approach. (5) The DH is for rotation. Donaldson plays 50/50 DH and 3B, same for Arraez. When one sits, 4th Of (Celestino), or backup IF like Gordon or Miranda DHs. Do NOT sign a full time DH unless you trade Donaldson. You can't have both. (6) SIGN BUXTON. He is one of the 2 keys to contention along with the rotation. Almost as importantly, signing him shows the team and the fan base that you're serious about winning. Will we need to over pay/take risk? Yup. He's worth it. The twins cannot win consistently, or even every now and then, without taking significant risk. He is worth that risk.

I agree on Celestino. Assuming no trades of outfielders, I think Celestino profiles nicely as the 4th OF in 2022 playing in a platoon in RF with Kepler and being Buxton's primary backup. Let's get him 250-300 plus ABs next year and I think he could be starter material by 2023.

Interesting idea. I wonder if a combination of Garver and Kepler would be enough to interest Miami in trading someone like Sandy Alcantra, or more likely Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez or Trevor Rogers? There would undoubtedly need to be some adjusting Minor Leaguers included depending on the target but I think this is a combination worth exploring. BTW, I'd also be willing to swap out Jeffers for Garver or add Sano or swap him out for Kepler to get the best return. I also agree that we need to get a veteran LH backup catcher to pair with which ever catcher is left if we make a trade like this. Rotvedt isn't MLB ready at the plate yet. He needs at least another year at the AAA level and can be the emergency 3rd catcher to call up in case of injury. .

Agreed. This is why it's so hard to evaluate Rocco.

I think the C/C- is justified based on what Baldelli did outside of the player issues he had to deal with by bad FA signings. He seems to have a hard time shifting when things don't go according to plan. This lack of flexibility is the opposite of what a manager should do; the manager needs to adjust to the talent and performance, not the other way around (same problem with Zimmer). Two examples: (1) Colome showed early that he wasn't ready to be the closer. Baldelli said it was closer by committee and would use matchups and performance. Still, he decided to ride Colome as a closer after he didn't perform and never went to closer by committee. Colome in April and May is one of the main reasons this season went off the rails but Baldelli didn't see it happening and adjust. He also seems to hew to that hackneyed notion that relief pitchers need to "know their roles" and have consistent roles. Horse feathers. Good relief pitchers can adjust to different situations. If ours can't, they aren't good. Bad, very bad at adjusting to the facts on the ground this year. (2) The season was over by May 30, really over by June 30. After that, it was time to play the younger guys and see what we had for next year. He did some of that, but.... Why Simmons at SS all season? Why not try Polanco and Gordon on an every day basis? Why Colome as the closer again in August and September? Why not Alcala? Why even play Cave or Astudillo (or for that matter Refsnyder or Kepler even)? At least the first 2 of those 4 will not be with the Twins in 2022. His primary goal post 6/15 or so should have been to evaluate guys for next year. Instead, he seemed fixed in his ways and overly focused on short term wins over longer term development. As a result, we aren't as prepared for the off season as we could be. I think Baldelli has the possibility of being a good MLB manager. By that, I mean one who can adjust on the fly and change philosophies to match the talent he's given, all while keeping everyone loose and performing. He did not do the first part of that this year. Still, he seems to have both the ear and respect of the team and he did keep them competing in a lost season. Hopefully he's learned from his mistakes and can be more flexible going forward. If he can't, he needs to be replaced.

Extremely well said, sir. Especially the part about giving Rocco an experienced bench coach. Well, all of it well said.

Excellent point. I didn't realize he had 2 options remaining. Still a tough call on the 40 man, but does increase his value both to the Twins and to other teams after they stash him for a year as a Rule 5 draftee. I still wouldn't keep him on the 40 man over a youngish pitcher but I would keep him over a 30+ year old reliever with no clear path to the 26 man roster like Kyle Barraclaugh, Nick Vincent and Luke Farrell. His lack of defensive ability really limits his utility - he's got to be a .850 plus OPS guy to really be usable on a contending team. Still, it wouldn't kill me to have him as the 39th or 40th man so we can give him one more try.