LA VIkes Fan

I really think the main difference between us is that I say sign two free agent starters and you’re using some of that money to sign relief, and then trading for that second starter. I think either approach works well. The key is getting two guys to handle rotation. I don’t think our needs in relief are as great. I think we may have actually found a decent group in the second half. If we go to the trade route, Miami seems illogical partner. I live in LA, and I seriously doubt if the Dodgers will trade pitching so I don’t think either they or the Padres are likely to trade anyone any good. My only other disagreement is I think we would be buying high on Robbie Ray if we signed him and I don’t think he is anywhere near as good as the other guys you mentioned. But Hey, I would be happy if your plan came to fruition.

That is the question. Who gets the 4-5 year $20-$25 million a year contract? If you aren’t willing to pay that, you cannot expect to get a tier 1 or even a tier 2 starter. That is why we no longer have Berrios. We didn’t offer that kind of money and he will get there or more when he becomes a free agent. And that’s for a tier 2 starter like Berrios. I would go high twice, on short term, one long-term. For the short term, I would offer Verlander and Greinke each 20 to 25m a year on a 2 year deal given their age. That maybe a tough sell because they are going to want to go to a team they see is being contenders in their last two years. Verlander Is a little younger so he may want and get more years. Greinke is my target - Older guy, doesn’t like the limelight. If that doesn’t work you drop the money and pivot to Cory Kluber or Robbie Ray. Then, you sign a younger younger pitcher to a four or five year $20-$25 million a year deal. Best choices are Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rondon. Push hard to get one of them. Those two guys head the rotation, Pineda comes back at somewhere between 8 and $10 million a year for a couple of years, and Ober and Ryan fill out the rotation. There will be plenty of opportunities in 2022 for other guys to get a shot do the injury and there isn’t anybody else in the system that is shown they are worthy of a full year shot at this point. How do I pay for this? That is where all of the off-season money goes. We sign a stopgap glove first shortstop like Iglesias or Galvis or even Simmons to a $5 or less million deal, and we run with the bullpen and lineup we have. Yes, that means picking up Colome’s option and also signing Rogers to a three-year $20-$25 million backloaded deal. It’s back loaded so that Rogers salary jumps when the older starter comes off the books. Overall, this commits another roughly $50-70 million a year to the payroll, which should put us between $140-160 million If my memory is right on what’s committed to next year, etc. If necessary, we trade Kepler and/or Sano as part of a package for young pitching to reduce payroll so we can spend the money on major-league pitching. I think this approach makes us competitive next year without putting an unrealistic strain on payroll. It also gives us options as guys develop over the next two or three years.

It’s very hard to see Rooker as having any long term place on the Twins for all the reasons stated. He also won’t have any trade value until after the 40 man is announced for the Rule 5 draft. Why would any team trade for him when there’s at least a decent chance that he would be protected? I think the smart move is to leave him on the 40 man roster and then try to trade him maybe as a sweetener in a package deal. If there isn’t a reasonable deal out there, he does have an option left so we can give it one more yearBut that’s probably just delaying the inevitable. All this assumes there’s room for him on the 40 man without having to expose a decent pitching prospect. It’s a choice between him and any kind of pitcher with any kind of upside, Rooker should go.

For those of us not as well versed as others, who needs to be added to the 40 man roster after the season that isn't on the 40 man roster now? Is there a site where this information is available?

It's hard to see Thorpe, Smeltzer or Barnes as MLB starting pitchers. Smeltzer might offer some Long relief of LH Bullpen value, but again it seems like that could be replaced with pitchers released from other Organizations or Rule 5 pickups. I owuld not put any of those 3 on the 40 man roster unless we have open spots and it seems unlikely that they will be selected in the Rule 5 draft. We should be ale to keep Barnes and Smeltzer in the organization with Minor League contracts with an invitation to Spring training and have them in AAA to start the season. No big deal if one of them is lost. They will get another chance next year with the twins due to the injury or ineffectiveness of others. Jax and Stashack are tougher calls because I could see one of them him being drafted in the Rule 5 Draft by a poor team. I would leave them both on the 40 man. Gant may be our 5th starter next year and, if he isn't, he will be in the Twins bullpen or at the top of the AAA rotation. He stays on the 40 man. Same analysis for Dobnak. Unfortunately, theis means the RH pitchers stay and the LH pitchers go. Not good. Still, their performance seems to compel this result.

Colome is a tough call because since May he's actually been a pretty good reliver. We need pretty good relievers because the starters are rarely going to go more than 5-6 innings next year unless we bring in a FA that can lead the staff. It's more likely that we'll have a guy like Greinke, then Pineda, than three of the Ober/Ryan/Dobnak/Jax/Barnes/Winder/(fill in more names here) crowd. I agree with the poster who said a mid market team can make it work with 5-6 inning starters with a quality bullpen. Colome could be part of a quality bullpen, but not as a traditional closer. The problem is that Baldelli insists on making Colome a traditional style closer. This season has taught us that he is not good at that role at this point in his career. By the way, neither is Taylor Rogers. In order to make this work, we need to either get a free agent "traditional" closer who effectively gets the ball in every save situation, or we need to play matchups and have 3 or 4 guys can pitch in the 8th and 9th inning depending on the opponent and matchups. Baldelli said that shifting/flexibility was what he was going to do, and then he frankly acts like Ron Gardenhire by designating a closer and going to him every time. He exacerbated his mistake by having the wrong guy designated as the closer. If I would point to one mistake that Baldelli has consistently made this year that makes me question whether he can be an effective major league manager, it's his bullpen management. It has been poor to say the least. He has been inflexible and beholden to the idea that the relievers need to have "set roles" to be effective. This may simply be the problem with having a former player from a different era manage. If we have relievers that have to have a set goal to be effective we need to get different relievers because that is not the way to win modern baseball games. So, bottom line, happy to keep Colome on the team if he is an interchangeable part rather than a set traditional closer. I question whether Baldelli can actually make that transition. The Front Office may need to take that option away from him. I hope he is self curious and self reflective and really studies what he did this year that didn't work. If he does, he should conclude that his set role bullpen management was a mistake and commit to greater flexibility. if he does that, Colome may have an effective role on this team.

Good analysis. This article points out something we all kind of know and supports it with real data. Kepler is an above average fielding corner outfielder with a well below average bat. I don't think moving him to centerfield really helps a lot because tat minimizes his one asset, an above average glove, because he would be an average at best centerfielder. The problem is he just can't hit and for some reason he is unwilling to do anything other than pull the ball on regular basis. He's got to be the easiest guy in the American League to shift against. With these flaws, I think it's unlikely that we would be able to trade him for much pitching unless we included an upside prospect with him in a package. Maybe somebody who is not an elite or even strong prospect but projects to be a possible mid to back rotation starter or solid bullpen piece regarding whom there is still some doubt. That might be someone like Winder or Strotman or, if we are willing to take more risk on the return side, maybe someone like Jax or Barnes. I will say that if I'm right on the possible return, Kepler probably has more value to the Twins than he does to anybody else. We are probably still a year away from having a capable replacement given the somewhat gaping hole we presently have in left field. Even if Kirilloff becomes our regular leftfielder and continues his development as a solid or better than that hitter, it's not like we have another outfielder banging on the door to take Kepler's place in 2022. Larnach wasn't quite ready when he came up this year and neither is Celestino or Rooker. I think the best thing for Kepler is to continue to work with him on learning to hit the ball to left field while at the same time effectively platooning him with who we think is our best right-handed hitting outfield prospect to give that player a chance to develop. In my view, that's probably Celestino given how well he hit at AAA when he went back down. We use the 1st half to two thirds of 2022 to see if the younger player can develop and/or if Kepler and finally gets a better approach at the plate and each of them and effectively also functions as the backup centerfielder. I just don't think trading him makes sense because of the low likely return and I do think the Twins highest priority in the off-season is to re-sign Buxton

I agree on the SS position. I just don't see them trusting Polanco or Gordon, nor should they. I would expect them to sign someone like Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias although the latter just had kind of a brutal year in the field for the Angels. How about Sano as a bounce back candidate? He's had a strong second half but he was so bad the first half that he was almost unplayable. I would consider a .240 avg., 35 HRs and a 30% or less strikeout rate a great improvement. That may be more of an improvement than a bounce back though. The other bounce back candidate is Tyler Duffy. Again, better in the second half but not good in the first. I would love to se him show up in shape and have a sub 3.00 ERA year but having two good halves instead of just one.

I think in evaluating the 40 man roster decisions last winter we have to bear in mind that the Twins were expecting to be contenders. Window was wide open as they say, until it turned out to be totally shut. Either way, last winter the Front Office seemed to prioritize players who would be able to contribute right away, like Devin Smeltzer, over the players they saw as being a couple of years away, like Tyler Wells and Baddoo. It’s the same reason we have so many AAAA players at Saint Paul, we were looking for guys who could come up for a few games and potentially contribute rather than guys to develop because we were in the contention window. Well, that evaluation turned out to be wrong. Now, we have to make the same evaluation again. Is this team going to contend in 2022 we should be playing for the long haul? I think it goes without saying that we should be playing for the long-haul given the state of our pitching staff. To me, that means he made 40 man decisions based upon long-term prospects without considering the short term. Guys like Jake Cave, Astudillo, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Luke Farrell, Nick Vincent, etc. are not protected so that you can keep the guys you consider to be the better long term prospects. Next year is more of a development year where who knows, maybe we get lucky and contend, not a year we expect to contend. Hopefully the Front Office sees it the same way and makes 40 man decisions accordingly.

Couldn't have said it better, Big Dog. Now is the time.

Abolsutely. At worst, we find out that Gordon can't be an everyday SS but he gets some experience at the MLB level playing the position so he can play their on a utility basis if necessary next year. Who knows, maybe we will get lucky and he actually has a chance to play there on a regular basis. If he can, we do not have to to spend money to bring in a free agent SS and we can use that money on pitching. Probably not, but it sure as heck doesn't hurt to try him out now. It's kind of hard to care if we go 10 – 6 for the last 16 games or 6 – 10.

How to spell the right term for a guy like Jax whos is consistently excellent the first time through the order, gets hit hard the second time, and gets absolutely shelled the third time? R-E-L-I-E-F PITCHER . I think Jax has some talent but I also think we've seen enough to know that he isn't a top 5 starter on a winning team. I think the issue is whether he provides more value as the 7th or 8th starter awaiting the call from AAA or whether he could be an effective reliever in a MLB Bullpen. I would love to give him a try in the bullpen this year but with all of the injuries I don't know that we have anyone to take his place if we give him a shot in relief. I'm glad Gordon played SS last night and I think we should keep doing it. I didn't see the game but we need to know if he can hold down that position. If he can't, he's a utility player fighting for the 25th or 26th spot on the 2022 Twins and we go out and get a FA SS in the off season. If he can, then we spend our SS money on pitching. One game isn't enough to know. I'd like to see him start at SS for at least 12 of the last 16 games so we can find out if he's a possible answer.

Interesting idea for which you should be congratulated, but I come out as a "No' because I don't see Torres glove work as good enough for a team with a very young starting pitching staff. Freddy Galvis is a better choice. Juan Igelsias also MIGHT be if his work for the Angels this year is an aberration and he rebounds to be the better SS that he has been in the past. Having said that, the idea of trading Kepler for a shortstop and/or pitching help is a good one but I think you guys are smoking crack as to Kepler's value. If we are being generous, Kepler is a good fielding, below average hitting corner outfielder (waaaaay below average in 2021) with occasional power who can play a decent but not great center field in a pinch for a couple of weeks. In other words, he is a good, solid 4th outfielder on a contending team. If we look at his history, this is all he has ever been other than in 2019 and it is becoming more and more clear that his performance in 2019 was an outlier probably assisted by the juice balls used that year. He is not going to be good enough to get a controllable starting pitcher even as the lead player in a package. He is the 2nd or 3rd player in that package. We are going to have to trade somebody better from the farm system, like a young pitcher, to get that controllable starter. Kepler is nowhere near enough.

I love this idea. I may do the same. I'm already thinking of betting on Arizona Sunday in their game with the Vikings for the same reason,

I agree but was he throwing 91-92 with the Twins? He looked very hittable and frankly, a long way from being able to contribute to a MLB team. He looked very overmatched when he was up before. It would be great if Barnes could help next year. So far it looks like Ober and Ryan (I know, SSS) can really help us next year in the rotation absent injury. We need at least one more internal pitcher and Jax does not look like the answer to that question. Maybe Gant, but his track record as a starter in St. Louis does not inspire confidence. He looks more like a decent reliever.

I agree and Kepler. He is a 4th OF or a left-handed half of a platoon With a younger player breaking in. He does provide defensive value so he’s worth having, but not starting every day, and definitely not batting in one of the first six spots in the order. I think he plays because we don’t really have anybody else given the struggles of Rooker and Larnach Both at the plate and in the field. I would frankly like them to bring up Miranda and give him a shot in the outfield. He has played there some in AAA. The other guy is Mark Contreras, but he is another left-handed hitter. The issue is we just don’t have anyone to replace him right now. We should definitely be looking for an upgrade in the off-season.

Guys, I think you're deluding yourselves on Jax. He doesn’t look like a MLB starter. No out pitch, not enough velocity or command. On the other hand, I could see him as a successful reliever, even a high leverage guy. That’s where he belongs.

Amen, brother. We have to develop our own number one starter. It’s difficult to find one in a trade and we simply aren’t going to be able to/willing to pay the prices for a free agent at that level. The only way you develop a number one starter is to get them on the mound and let them pitch. We learned this year that Ober has a real chance to be a mid rotation guy or better, that Jax isn’t ready and may be a better relief pitcher than starter, and that Charlie Barnes probably doesn’t have enough stuff to make it in the majors. We found that out by pitching them and giving them a chance to succeed or fail. We need to keep doing that for guys like Ryan, Winder, Strotman, Blaze, etc. 2022 is the perfect year to do that in the rotation and, frankly, at a few positions in the field.I would say we went one for three this year on starters, with Ryan still a question mark Since he just got here. And I think that Jax could actually be a quality relief pitcher at the major-league level. That’s about as good as you can expect to do. Let’s get these guys on the mound and see what they have.

I agree on Kepler and Sano. I think we need to recognize what other teams will see them as being. Kepler is a below average hitting, good defensive corner outfielder who can also play centerfield. Perfect 4th outfielder for a good team like the Yankees or Oakland, not a starter. Sano is a boom or bust power hitter with no defensive position that he can competently play. In other words, a DH that hits sixth in the lineup. Those guys, even packaged together, are not going to get us a young controllable starter. They might get us a young shortstop, young relief pitching, or solid prospects. In both cases, I think that’s a trade worth making. Kirilloff replaces Sano, Larnach or Miranda replaces Kepler, or Kirilloff and Larnach play the corner OF spots with Miranda/Arraez at 3B and Donaldson at 1B. Upgrade defensively and at the plate at first base, downgrade defensively in right field but probable upgrade at the plate. Worth doing if we can get young, controllable players or good prospects at positions of need. Most likely result, though, is that they both stay with the Twins for most of their career. We frankly value them higher than the rest of the league does and so they’re likely to stay.

I think this is a very well reasoned article and a solid approach, although I would tweak it in one way. I think the twins really need to go hard For a youngish, front line starter like Marcus Stroman and sign him to a four or five year contract. Sign Buxton on a 5 to 7 year deal. Sign Rogers for three years, $20-$25 million. I would also bring back Pineda on a one year, $6-8 million kind of deal (or2 years if necessary). He will give us 125 solid starter innings so he doesn’t block someone completely. He simply shares one starter spot with a midseason call-up type. The rotation starts out as Stroman, Pineda, Ober, Ryan, and Dobnak. There will be plenty of opportunity for the next group of starters like Strotman, Winder, etc. from IL stints, the inevitable two months off for Pineda, and potential ineffectiveness. The most important thing is to get Ober and Ryan 30 starts so we know if they are solid mid rotation type starters for 2023 or more, or just not ready. Then in the off-season before the 2023 season, sign one more number two or number three starter and you have your contending rotation. In effect, use 2022 to find a minimum of three solid or better starters from the young starters. Frankly, I also agree that we should use this off-season to separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of that on-field core and see if there are good prospects out there for some of the Players who are not likely to be helping us in that next hoped for contention window of 2023-26. The three obvious question marks are Kepler, Sano, and Donaldson, the first two because they just haven’t really panned out the way we hoped and the third because of his age and physical condition. I would at least gauge the trade market for these guys. I think it is unrealistic that they will bring back a controllable starter, but I could see them bringing some high ceiling prospects or a young shortstop. That does leave us with a young batting order that’s likely to have some significant ups and downs so I would see if we can augment it by resigning Nelson Cruz or keeping Donaldson to be that number 4 hitter bulwark. They may not want to do that given the contention window is at least a year away but it’s worth a shot so we have some lineup stability as the group develops. So in short, use 2022 as a development year around a good starter, a good number 4 hitter, and Rogers as the bullpen stalwart. I actually think the talent is good enough for us to win 80-85 games that way, stay in contention for a playoff spot, and give these guys some valuable experience. This should set us up for a 2023-2026 contention window.

I like Nick’s ideas but not adding Kluber, Morton, Cobb, Heany, etc. There’s no real upside there other than hoping to catch a one career year IMHO. I would go all in on the younger guys in the system for next year in a rotation anchored by a top tier guy like Stroman and a re-signed Pineda. I think both Ober and Ryan start next year in the rotation and are given a long leash. Dobnak starts the year in the rotation on a shorter leash and we have the rest of the Strotman/Winder/Blaze/Jax etc. group for depth. We’re not going to have internally developed mid-rotation or better starters for 2023 unless we give guys like Ober and Ryan 30 start next year. Those two look like the best bets right now, and there may be others who show us next year with those two are showing us this year. We cannot develop our own rotation by signing stopgap vets. That’s what you do and you don’t have enough younger options to develop. I do think we have enough younger options. I do recognize that probably means that it will be difficult for us to contend for a playoff spot next year unless the playoffs are expanded. I still see enough there to get us into the 85+ win category, with significant improvement by year end and a good outlook for 2023. And that’s what I see as the best approach; use 2022 as the pitching development year to get us to being a real contender by 2023.

Agreed. We need to improve our pitching through free agency and internal development, not by additional trades. The only players I would trade for pitching are Kepler and maybe Sano, Frankly I don’t think either one of them will bring back a quality starting pitcher. Same even if you traded both in the same trade.

Having an older pitching staff at the beginning of the year actually made sense; it just doesn't make sense now. If you think you're a contender, you tend to have an older pitching group at AAA so you want guys with some MLB experience to pitch when there are injuries rather than prospects. The Dodgers do exactly the same thing if you look at their AAA roster. You want guys like Coulombe, Theilbar, Law, Barraclough, etc. who have pitched in the bigs. They are better short term fill ins on a contending team than untested propects. What doesn't make sense is keeping them now. Do we really think Law, Barraclough or Coulombe will be on the team next year making a contribution? Theilbar I can see. A lot of this has to do with either keeping the Saints' season rolling or suppressing service time. Other wise, this makes no sense.

Hey, who else is Rocco going to run out there to close? Kyle Barraclough? Juan Minaya (actually, he might be an upgrade)? Garza? Garcia? Caleb Theilbar? Tyler Duffy remains missing in action, Rogers is hurt, Alcala is hurt and wasn't great, Coulombe has had is run is now back to being mediocre, and we all cheered when Robles left town. This isn't the manager's fault. I kind of understand why we haven't gone to bringing up the AAA bullpen with the attendant 40 man issues, effect on the Saints title push, etc. I just don't agree with it. It's time to bring up Hamilton and Moran, and I would give Vasquez a shot with them. Push some combination of Barraclough, Garcia, Garza, Coulombe and yes, even Astudillo and Simmons off the 40 man if that's what we need to do. One question. When we add 2 people on 9/1 do they have to go on the 40 man or do we get a "free" look? Might explain some of the head scratching decisions.

That makes sense. No need to call up whoever is going to take his spot in the rotation yet since that spot won't come up until Friday or Saturday. Besides, we can always give Albers a start. I cringe at that, but I have to admit that the guy went 4 innings, one run in NY. Lots of reasons that it could be a mirage - late innings in a blow out game, no one has seen him for 2-3 years, etc. - but he did perform when given the opportunity. Does make one wonder how he would do in a regular start in MN against Milwaukee this coming weekend. I have a feeling that we may just find out. I'd even bet that he will be with the organization next year as a 6th or 7th starter in St. Paul and will wind up getting a few starts with the Twins. Who would have guessed that over the last couple of years?