LA VIkes Fan

We are going to find out a lot about the ability of this roster to compete in the first month. The first 21 games of the season are against Seattle (90 wins in 2021), the Dodgers (106 and NLCS berth), Boston (92 and ALCS berth), KC (74), the White sox (93, division champs), improved Detroit (77), and Tampa (100, division champs). Not a schedule conducive to working out the kinks. The Twins would only be favored to win maybe one or two of those series, at home against Detroit or in Kansas City. Very realistic to go something like 7-14 or 8-13 in the first 21. The good news is we might get buried early but have a much easier schedule in May and June. Still, it sure looks like we can't compete with the big boys so far.

Sadly, you may be right. There's a lot of IFs there and they aren't all going to come true and maybe only Correa playing better. Most likely result is Kepler, Sano and Sanchez playing like they usually do - average to below at the plate - and Gordon, Larnach and Celestino and a legion of "work in progress development" players in LF. I'm sticking with 78-84.

Lineup is at least 2 bats short, maybe 3 now that Kiriloff is gone. We have 3 strong and potentially elite bats in Buxton, Correa and Polanco, two potentially good complimentary bats in Arraez and Urshela (we need to play them both at the same time), and the catchers are decent as an entry. Huge wasteland after that. Kepler isn't good at the plate and Sano is way too streaky. LF is a void. Nothing much on the bench or at AAA. The pitching? Better. Probably will wind up about league average which is a step forward. Staff doesn't ahve a lot of really weak points but lacks the top end in the rotation and bullpen. Having said that, we have young, talented guys who might develop into top end guys. Actually, I'm fairly optimistic on the pitching for the next 2-3 years. Defense and management? Both should be better but are off to slow starts. I expect the defense to stabilize at a pretty high level, not so sure about Baldelli. I've been a defender of his but he just doesn't seem to get it or to be getting any better. Way too mechanical and too player friendly. He might need to be replaced to give this team a spark but I'm still withholding judgement. Overall - mediocre to slightly average team. Better than last year, but still at least one year away from truly contending and may need 2 years to develop a high end starter or two from the young guys and at least another 2 bats In fact, we probably need 3 bats since we will need to replace Correa after this season. Predict between 77 and 83 wins depending on injuries and development curve of the young guys. Right now if I had to bet I would say 78-84.

Agreed. Make Larnach hit at AAA before we bring him up. Play Gordon and find what he really can do if he plays every day. This really does show how thin we are in the field. We've gone from a team that seemed to boast a lot of hitting depth with not much pitching in the org to one that seems to boast a lot of pitching depth that can't find a competent bat to play LF, the position where defense is the least important (well, other than DH but that's not really a position). Frankly, it's a little scary for the long term.

Let's face reality, it sounds like Kirilloff is out for awhile. I suspect we'll be looking at a 60 day IL stint once we have to make a 40 man decision. Really hurts because we were counting on him to fill one of the top 5 spots in the Order and there isn't anyone to replace him on the roster in that role. We know who Kepler, Sano, and the catchers are and none of them can hit in the top 5 or even top 6 on a contending team. The choices are Gordon and Larnach for now unless we make a trade. I for one would like to se Gordon play LF every day for a month and see what he can do. I would either sign a FA RH hitting Of (but who?) or bring up Garlick as a RH stopgap playing 2-3 days a week for Kepler and Gordon. I would do that for the next 3-4 weeks so Larnach can play every day in AAA. Then I would bring Larnach up and play him every day unless Gordon takes off with regular playing time. Gordon is 26 and Larnach is 25. They can either can play at the MLB level or they can't and its time for us to find that out. In an ideal world, we wind up with Gordon as a quality super utility and Larnach as an every day OF or at least one of them claims the job. The other end of the spectrum is they aren't good enough and we cut bait and move on to Contreras, Martin and Julien. Kirilloff is going to wind up as the every day 1B by next year so the LF spot is open. Let's use this time to fill it.

Following the last two games in an office in LA surrounded by Dodger fans too polite to say the truth - the Twins are nowhere hear the Dodgers league.

Ah, how one day and one injury changes things. This lineup is about 4 bats long, 5 against RH pitching because you can add Arraez. Kirilloff was supposed to be a middle of the order bat. Gone, and might be for awhile. Sano is off to his usual torrid start. Won't be any better than last year and a better second half doesn't help a team out of contention by the All Star Break. Kepler is who he is - a lousy hitter. The Catching position actually could be mediocre at the plate and that's the best spot in the back half of the lineup. The pitching? Not that bad. Could be middle of the pack. Defense? Not good so far. Overall? Mediocre team. Let's use this year to develop some more guys.

Hard to see a good reason to go get Upton. Frankly, Garlick looks like a better bat at this point. If we think we can contend, put Arraez out there, live with his poor defense and hope he knees allow him to play 120 games. Maybe pair him with Garlick. If this is really more of a rebuilding/development season, put Gordon out there some and Larnach some and see what happens. I lean to the latter because I think these first 6 games have sobered me up to see how many holes this team has. The pitching may be average - an improvement but not good enough - but the lineup is least two hitters too short to really contend. I hate to say it, but I think we have time. Persistent soreness that affects one's swing in an already surgically repair wrist doesn't sound like a 10 day IL stint to me. Sounds more like at least a month and that's if they can figure out what's wrong.

Really bad news about Kirilloff. I was one of the people calling for him to go back to AAA since he really did look bad and overmatched. In a sense, it's reassuring to hear that his problem is an injury; really bad because it sounds like it could be a longer term one. Even worse, we have no one to replace him that looks even close to ready to play every day in the bigs. Maybe Arraez, but Rocco doesn't want him in the OF. Sounds like this is the best opportunity that NIck Gordon will ever get. Hope he runs with it. Time to think harder about Upton?

Maybe that's a better answer, although they have Martin playing SS in AA. Not sure I see "loads" of corner OFs though. Larnach is a question mark after last year. Frankly. so is Kirilloff based on performance to date although that might be injury related. Who else is there? At AAA the other OFs are Cave, Garlick, and Contreras. Two journeymen who have shown they can't be everyday MLB OFs and a guy who might be good but only just showed something last year. AA, we ahve Wallner, Sturgeon and Julien, only one of which is hitting over .200. At the MLB level we have Kepler who doesn't hit much, Celestino who hasn't shown he can hit at the MLB level, an Injured and previously ineffective Kiriilloff, and Larnach who hit .223 with a .672 OPS last year, went to AAA and didn't hit there last year or this year so far. I really wonder if this surplus of corner OFs is real or just a hope.

Would love to trade for Bryan Reynolds. Tried to find a trade on MLB Trade Values. Problem is Reynolds has an 85 rating so short of trading Ober, Ryan and Larnach we can't get there and even that's not enough. have to entice the Pirates with high upside pitching. How about Winder, Sands, Strotman and Larnach for Reynolds?

Nothing like Minnesota in April. Find Your True North. That's why I live in LA. Here it's Find Your True Fruits and Nuts.

Ok, so Kirilloff to the 10 day IL, Larnach up, Cotton DFA'd, Rodriguez up after Alcala on Il and Jax up. Did someone say that Ober went on the IL? Haven't seen that one yet...

Arraez as "a much better hitting Astudillo"? Well said. You have that exactly right.

Arraez is a great hitter against RH pitching, ok against LH pitching (maybe could improve with more ABs against LHs), and a real joy to watch. But he really is a one trick pony. He has no real power and he is brutal defensively, just brutal. I live in LA and was listening the game on the drive home from work when he made the error in the 8th. He also apparently whiffed on a previous play he should have made and missed a third. His defense was the reason the Dodgers had a 6 run inning rather than a 2 run inning and he made the relief pitchers look even worse than they were. The Dodger announcers were polite but they not only questioned the results they questioned his effort saying that on his error he missed the ball by a foot and "didn't give a major-league effort". They actually wondered if there was a lighting issue such that he wasn't seeing the ball because he was so far off on these plays. We've seen this before. He can't really play 3B, SS or LF. I agree with the previous poster on his position, he can only play 2B and there is a little below average. Unfortunately, our second best player plays 2B so he hasn't got a spot in the field. I think Arraez should be the full time DH against RH pitching and sometimes against LH pitching in tandem with Sanchez so he can get better there. He can spell an IF occasionally but not too often. Let's be honest, it's not like we got anybody else to DH who's any good and he provides the only real high OBP bat on the team. At the present time, we appear to have basically a 4 hitter deep lineup when he doesn't play so let's DH him and make it 5 deep. Let's also get Urshela's glove in the field every day at 3B. He can actually play the position. The DH doesn't have to be a power hitter; it's just your best hitter is not playing the field that day. Most days on this team that's Arraez. Arraez as an everyday player in the field? Not on a good team. Arraez as a LH DH who spells IFs on an occasional basis? There's his value on a good team.

Agreed, although I would add Kirilloff into that mix. Hopefully this is just one series and at least one of those 3 will come around quickly because otherwise we have a pretty short lineup. Best bet on that is Sano. Kepler is what he is - a .220 hitter with some power who's a good defensive OF. 8th or 9th place hitter. Kirilloff looks bad at the plate right now and may need some time at AAA to get 4-5 ABs a game and get his swing back after the long injury layoff.

Well that was ugly. I guess with 2 strikes you take chances, but with Correa up next? Hmmm....

Celestino is the only roster position player who hasn't yet played. I would expect him to get a start against the Dodgers since they are throwing 2 left-handers and probably better to have him start against Heaney than against Kershaw. Winder is the only pitcher that hasn't got in but I expect he is the long man available tonight after Bundy. Regarding Kirilloff, we all need to remember that this is a young player without much of a track record coming off a major injury. He looked very good in 2021 for about 100 bats, looked very bad for about 100 bats, and then got shut down. He just hasn't looked comfortable at the plate so far. It's not an 0-12 with a few line drive outs, I don't think he squared the ball up yet. So that may mean it just requires some at-bats and some time. My only point is that it might be better to have those at bats and time in AAA IF there is someone to replace him who might give us more competitive at bats. That isn't likely to be Celestino, but maybe if we play him tonight or tomorrow night we will find out. I still would not be surprised to see the Twins sign Justin Upton and potentially lose Jhon Romero or put Stashack on the 60 day IL.

What am I looking for from Bundy? At least 5 innings, hopefully 6, and 3 or fewer runs. I think we have a less than 50/50 chance of either. I would nominate him as "most likely to be the odd man out when the rotation goes from 6 to 5 in a month", but then there's Archer. Archer is a great cartoon, not such a great starting pitcher.

Thanks for letting me know that. Sounds like the IL strategy doesn't really advance the ball on adding a non-40 man replacement. Sadly, the only OF in St. Paul on the 40 man is Larnach and he's hitting .118 in AAA.

An IL stint for Kirilloff might be an even better answer than just sending him down. If I understand this right, putting him on the IL would allow us to add a free agent or someone on a minor-league contract to the 40 man roster without dropping anyone until the IL stint was over. Kirilloff would then get some rehab time in St. Paul before having to be added back to the 40 man. That would give us a time to either sign a guy like Justin Upton or bring up Garlick, Cave or Contreras without having to lose somebody on the 40 man roster. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Kirilloff has looked bad. Frankly, he's looked over matched. Part of that may be the long layoff from last year's injury. He hasn't really faced live bullets since July, 2021 - Spring Training doesn't really count. Still, it's not just that he isn't hitting, there aren't any signs that he's ready to bust out any time soon. The question is would it be better to send him to AAA to play every day and find his groove. The problem with that is who replaces him. Cave and Contreras are the OFs hitting in AAA, Larnach is not, so its hard to get excited there, Upton is the FA flavor of the week, also hard to get excited. Add to that Kepler can't hit and now you 2 corner OFs who aren't contributing at the plate. Not good. Much as I dislike the alternatives, I think its time to send Kirilloff down to AAA for a month, play him every day until he really gets going, and then bring him back up. I would give Contreras a shot but i suspect that Cave would be the call up. Still, better than watching him flail away up in the bigs. Watch, now he'll get 3 hits today and make me look like and idiot. Ahh, to dream....

While it definitely would help us to have a right-handed hitting Outfielder on this roster, Upton doesn't look like the answer. The problem is, who else is there? Kepler cannot hit left-handed pitching and frankly, right now, Kirilloff can't hit anything. He looks overmatched and may be in need of a trip back to AAA to refine his stroke. Celestino is basically it though in the organization for a RH hitting OF. Garlick didn't hit in spring training and is a lousy fielder, and every other decent outfielder in St. Paul and Wichita hits left-handed. The only RH hitting real infield prospects at either level are Lewis, Miranda and Martin. So Celestino is it in the organization unless we move Miranda or Martin to the outfield and have them try it at the MLB level. Doesn't seem like a good idea and right now Miranda is playing third base and Martin is playing short. Looks like we have three choices, We can keep Celestino on the big club and actually play him, recall Garlick (yuck), or find someone to pick up. Hence, the interest in Upton because it just aren't any other decent RH OF bats out there yet. I'd like to see them play Celestino tomorrow night in place of Kirilloff to give him a chance and clear the latter's head, and then play him again in place of Kepler on Tuesday when the Dodgers pitch Andrew Heaney. Seattle gave us LH starters twice in 4 games and the Dodgers are giving us two in two games. It looks like the book is getting to be throw left-handers against the Twins and half their lineup goes kaput because Arraez sits, Kepler and Kirilloff can't hit lefties, and Polanco is a better LH hitter than RH hitter. Let's find out if Celestino's impressive run in AAA was real improvement because it sure looks like we need someone to fill that RH hitting OF role pretty quickly. If not, we're going to have to try Garlick or Upton.

I don't agree with the idea that Duffy is somehow 67-76 because of his holds in innings other than the 9th, There's a big psychological difference between pitching in the 9th with a one run lead and pitching earlier innings with that same lead. Earlier innings are less tense and psychologically easier to do because your team always has the ability and the time to rally if you don't pitch well. There is a reason that some guys thrive in ninth inning close situations and some don't; it's their ability to handle pressure where there is an air of finality attached to their performance. I think Duffy is a very good setup man, can do a great job in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings, and I'm glad we have him. He does not have the temperament to be a closer based upon his very poor record in that role. I think baseball has become so analytically based that sometimes we forget these are human beings, not robots. You have to take the human element into account. Some players are able to maintain their performance in clutch or pressure situations (no one actually gets better in those situations), and some are not as good at that. A closer needs to be someone who could maintain his performance. Duffy's track record showed that he is not that guy in ninth inning situations. Trying him as a closer might have made sense without considering his emotional makeup but it doesn't when you take that into consideration. The failure to do that is on the manager. That is his primary job. I've been a defender of Rocco but it is getting hard.

Here are two hot takes which I fear might actually turn out to be true. First, this lineup is not very good overall and only decent if Buxton, Correa and Polanco all hit well. The rest of the lineup looks like a wasteland other than Urshela and Arraez and it doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to play both of them the same day. Kirilloff appears badly overmatched and needs a trip back down to AAA, and we already know that Sano is the best a streaky number six type hitter, and that Kepler is simply not a good hitter overall and can’t hit left-handers at all. The rest of the spots are just Hopes and wishes. Moreover, we can’t hit left-handed pitching at all since it effectively takes Arraez and Kepler out of the lineup. That right handed hitting outfielder we were hoping for to be the fourth outfielder? We need that guy now and we need him to play every day either in left field or in right field when a lefty starts. We are way to home run dependent to score runs, bad roster management. The second is that it’s going to take us at least a month or two to find any sort of reliable closer. Duffy is not the answer and was just a bad managerial choice given his track record of 4 out of 13 in save opportunities. But watch, Rocco will give him at least three or four more tries before he does the right thing and starts running Pagán, Alcala, and maybe Duran out there. We will have to find one or two of those three to close games. My overreaction is that this team will be something like 12 - 18 after 30 games, struggle and fail to even get to .500 by the All-Star break, and the hot topic on this board will be who we’re going to get when we trade Carlos Correa at the All-Star break or deadline. I’m following Lewis at SS and Miranda, who is hopefully playing in left field at AAA, and Martin who hopefully is also playing in the outfield in AA. Those guys will need to make a big contribution this year for us to make a second-half run. Final record: 78–84.