LA VIkes Fan

Love he idea of those 3 in the rotation all year, but we probably won't get more than 150 innings apiece out of them and probably a little less. I actually like what we've seen of Paddock so far - he could be a solid #3/#4 type for the next 3 years we have control of him. Add in Gray and it actually looks like a MLB rotation. Who would have thought? The big issue is that none of these guys look like 180 plus inning guys based on their past so we will need depth. I'm actually kind of bullish on Winder, less so on Archer. Looking at AAA, the only starter going well is Smeltzer. We're starting guys like Jake Faria, JC Ramirez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Derek Rodriguez, with the kind of predictable mediocre AAA results. Be interesting to see what we do when we need to go beyond the 7 guys we have on the MLB roster.

I'm with you. Better defense means better pitching and Ryan used it last night. I love the idea of getting Arraez in the lineup at 1B or DH and only occasionally in the infield. Keep Correa, Polanco and Urshela in the infield as much as we can - all 3 are waaaay above average at their positions and really help these guys out.

Kepler hitting like he did last night or over the last week would sure help fix the big hole with this offense - the lack of a #4 or #5 hitter. Even better he hits left handed and the other 2-4 guys that can hit are all RH except Arraez. I don't think it's likely but ... a girl can dream, right?

Agreed. The two players going down at the end of the week are Celestino and Godoy unless Sanchez still can't play,. Then it's Celestino and Sanchez to the injured list. The roster crunches come when Gray is ready to come back and Kirilloff is ready to be elevated. When Gray comes back., either Jax or Stashack goes. When Kirilloff is ready, we have to lose either Larnach back to AAA or DFA Garlick. While I would prefer a DFA of Garlick with Larnach playing most days in LF, Kirilloff at 1B, and Sano as a part time DH and back up 1B, and I think the more likely result is Larnach back to AAA to play in LF every day.

With the rule change allowing for 14 pitchers, I think this becomes a much easier decision when we cut to 26. We have a 14 man pitching staff now. We Gray is ready to come back we jettison the least effective of Stashack and Jax. Right now, I think that's Stashack but I'm not sure he has options like Jax does. We now have our 14 man pitching staff. We cut to 12 players by reducing ourselves with three-man bench, a 2nd catcher (Sanchez) a super utility (Gordon) and then which ever 1 of Sano, Garlick, Larnach or Arraez isn't playing LF, DH or 1B that day. Celestino goes down to AAA to play centerfield every day and we lose Godoy assuming Sanchez is ready to play. It is a little tempting to go with 3 catchers since they like to have Sanchez DH when he is not catching, but that leaves no room at the Inn for Garlick unless you want to keep him and send Laranch back down. I think Garlick stays for now. The harder question comes when Kirilloff is ready come back. I think at that point we to make a decision between Larnach, Garlick and Sano going off 26 man roster to make room. While performance to date suggests Sano would be the one to go, you basically have to trade him or keep him and he has no trade value right now. Moreover, it's not like the other 2 are burning up the league and somehow forcing the Twins to keep them on the active roster. I think the likely result is that when Kirilloff comes back, we choose between keeping Garlick or Larnach. My guess is that Larnach will go back to AAA unless he gets on a hot streak that's more than just hitting the ball hard, but actually getting hits and not striking out so much.

This is great to see. I agree that Kepler was getting shifted to the bench. High hopes that there is a .250-.270 hitter with 20 HR power and a .340 OBP in Kepler if he can hit the ball to LF. Even better if he can find some power to the LCF gap. Then he really is a keeper.

I agree with you there. Kepler is better than the present alternatives, and probably still is even if/when Kirilloff comes back and plays LF. We saw last night what a good glove in the corner OF can do and what it can't when Grossman butchered the play on the ball hit by Sano. Frankly, for all the talk we heard about the glut of corner OF prospects we supposedly have, it looks like we are short in that area at least in the high minors. I just think we need to understand what Kepler is - a good fielding corner OF with a below average corner OF bat. He hits 6 against RH pitching, 7 against lefties (although he's hitting lefties better than righties this year) and plays every day until somebody better comes along. We can win with Kepler playing every day IF we get a consistently good hitting LF or 1B that can hit 4 or 5. Still working on that.

I agree. A "breakout" for Kepler would be for him to hit .250-.260/.330/.460. Not bad, but hardly a middle of the order bat. Still a serviceable piece on a good team as the 3rd best hitting OF and his glove brings real value. He seems like he's make strides and he MIGHT improve to be a solid starter/#6 or #7 hitter in a good lineup. It really seems unlikely he will be anything more that that in his career. In other words, a solid complimentary player but not someone who is a core carrier of the team. By the way, let's stop talking about how Kepler's 103 OPS+ makes him an "above average hitter". It makes him a roughly average hitter when you include everyone that plays, including catchers, shortstops, second baseman, and center fielders - all positions where the glove work is more important than the offense. Kepler is a Corner OF. He needs to hit better to play that spot. I would love to see the average OPS+ for corner OFs. I can't seem to find anything recent on the internet. The only one I found is multiple years old and says that the average OPS for a corner OF is .819, with .756 as "replacement level". Kepler's career OPS is .... .756. Replacement level if one believes these old stats. I'd love to see some updated or better ones. Still, this validates what I at least think Kepler has been - a good fielding OF with a below average, replacement level bat for a corner OF. I hope he adjusts and is better this year, I really do. But let's not pretend he's been more than that in his career.

I understand the author's point and agree with it, but only to a limited extent. We all know what Sano is as a baseball player- a steaky hitter with power who provides negative value on defense. He will carry the team for a couple of weeks at 2 or 3 junctures this season. He also will drag us down and cause us to lose games by missing opportunities to help the team like his brutal at bat in the 2nd last night watching 3 strikes go bay with a men on second and third and no outs. Inexcusably bad at bat. The question is does that provide what you need from a 1B/DH on a good, contending team? The answer is a resounding NO. no advanced metrics can change that answer - he's just not good enough if our goal is to actually contend. Do we have anyone any better? I think Arraez is easily better against RH pitching so at most Sano should be the weak half of a 1B platoon. Kirilloff might be better so he should play every day when and IF he's ready. Bottom line is that Sano should be at most a part time player, trade bait if anyone will even give us a A ball lottery ticket or two for him, and gone after this season.

We're all frustrated with Sano and we'll all be cheering him IF and when he goes on one of his patented hot streaks. I think the frustration is that those hot streaks seem to be further and further apart. He also provides no value to the team if he doesn't hit. I'm not a big fan of Kepler either, but at least he does provide value with his glove in right field. For Sano to help the team, he has to be hitting well. To me, the big problem with Sano is that 1B is a position where you should always have a strong offensive player or at least a good glove that hits for average. Sano is neither one of those things. We have a team with a lineup problem right now. The lineup isn't good enough to score consistently enough for the team to consistently win. The obvious places for an upgrade in this lineup are 1B, DH and LF. Arraez can only play one of those three at a time. This team needs ae consistent hitter at the 1B position. Unfortunately, Sano hasn't been that guy for the last few years and is unlikely to be that guy in the future based on his past performance. The only thing saving him now is the lack of an obvious replacement. He goes to the bench if that replacement arrives, say Kirilloff maybe, and is probably gone from the team next season since it is very unlikely that we will pick up his option at $14 million for next season.

Great post. 3 thoughts on this. If you were the #1 person using Kepler as a whipping boy, I was #2. I think Kepler is a 4th OF on a good team but after watching the games this weekend I'm starting to think he could be more. He actually tried to hit the ball the other way and was successful a couple of times. I'm beginning to hope that he has finally learned that he has to do that to open up his pull side. Maybe he can be a .260 hitter after all. Combine that with 20-25 HRs and an above average glove and we may have a #5 or #6 hitter that deserves to play every day. Also, Urhela is a player - good defense and decent hitter. He should be playing every day in the #5 or #6 hole. Arraez can play somewhere else, mostly 1B and DH, although we do have a huge hole in LF. On the negative side, I have to agree on Sano. He looks like a RH DH, backup 1B right now. I would put Arraez at 1B so he plays every day against RH pitching, and only play Sano against LH pitching. When and IF Kirilloff is back AND shows he can hit, he can play LF or 1B with Arraez playing the other spot, and Sano an occasional 1B and part-time DH. Sano reminds me of the bench scorer/ no D guy on an NBA team. You put him in and tell let him hoist up a couple right away. If they go in, he plays. If he misses, you pull him and he sits the rest of the game because if he isn't scoring he has a negative value. With Sano, you give him a a game's worth of ABs. If he hits it hard, he plays. If he strike outs or hit pop ups, he sits for a few games and you give him another shot hoping to catch that hot streak. He helps when he's hot, he drags us down when he's not.

Hey, made two inexperienced guys look like .... two inexperienced guys. Wish we had a veteran bat there but we don'; t have that guy,

Would love that. Who is it? We don't have that guy right now. Who do you have in mind? the only guy I know of that's available is Justin Upton and word is he wants to go to a place where he will play every day in the OF. It's great to want a veteran hitter in LF but you need ot tell us who that is.

Archer looking like a bullpen guy. Maybe Winder takes his spot if he pitches well today and goes 5 or the last 6? At the very least, Archer drops off the rotation when Gray is back and we go to a 5 man after May 1 when the roster's cut down to 26.

We aren't expecting miracles; we're hoping against hope because the rookies are all we have. There ain't nobody else. Open to other ideas if you got 'em. Agree with you on the unis though.

While I'd love that, it ain't going to happen. Lewis will play SS in AAA until Correa is gone. He's the replacement and needs the ABs. Miranda tried LF last year a little in AAA and looked like a 3B/1B out there. In other words, not good. Larnach is who we got until Kirilloff is ready to play or they want to give Contreras a shot. Now's the itme to find out if the kid can hit. If not, he goes back down when Kirilloff is ready to play.

Agreed, but I do like the fact that Rocco is getting Gordon and Larnach in the lineup every day. We need ot see if one of them can fill one of the gaping holes in this lineup and playing them is the way to find that out. Larnach has been swinging the bat pretty well, just think he might be overthinking things.

I think this is where we disagree. I agree that Arraez, Correa, Polanco , and Buxton are quality MLB hitters. I just don't see any of them well suited to a run producing spot like #4 or #5 and that's assuming that Polanco can be the #3 hole hitter. Really, Correa and Polanco are pretty similar hitters, both around .265-.280/ .325-.340/ .475-.520 with Correa more in the .850 plus OPS range and Polanco more like .800. Interestingly, Correa has really been a boom or bust a guy with an OPS either at .850 or higher (2019 and 2021) or in the low to mid .700s (2018 and 2020). A lot of his value is as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, not as a hitter. Still, even with Correa and Polanco holding down the #2 and #3 spots - a bit of a stretch for Polanco - we lack the quality leadoff hitter and putting Arraez or Urshela in the #4 and #5 spots is really a stretch for them. They are both better suited to hitting #6 or in Arraez' case, as a possible leadoff hitter but there he's too damn slow. Buxton can either leadoff or hit #4, but he's really not suited for either spot. He also should probably be hitting #2. Really, what this team lacks is the traditional middle of the order bopper will hits for a high average with some power or hits 260-.275 with 30+ homerun power. It's possible that Buxton could develop into that guy, but you hate to waste his speed by putting him in the middle of the order behind a slow guy like Arraez. The rest of the group is just a bunch of mismatched pieces. That's why we struggle to score runs. Maybe the answer is to try something different. Let's put Nick Gordon in the leadoff spot, followed by Correa, Polanco and Buxton. Urshela and Arraez can hit #5 and #6 in some order depending on whether a RH or LH starts, and the bottom three can be some combination of Kepler, Larnach, Sano, and whoever is catching that day. That still leaves is a major black hole at the bottom of the order, although Sanchez can profile is a good #7 hitter, but at least we have a chance to score some runs through the top six spots in the order. We'll have to score those runs by guys getting lots of singles and doubles and situational hitting with some but not a lot of power. I just think that's who this team is right now. we aren't going to bash our way to the top.

I agree with some of this, but not all. Here's where we disagree. I think Urshela is actually a pretty good hitter. Jeffers is not. I don't think that Kepler is a wild card all - I think we know what he is. He's a .220 - .230 hitter with a good glove and some pop. He is fine as the third or fourth OF on a good team. He is NOT good enough to hit in the middle of the lineup or turn the team around offensively. Same with Sano. He's a streaky hitter who will give us 25+ homeruns, hit between .210 and .235, and hurt us on defense. He is a mediocre DH. Having Garver and Donaldson might help a little, but you're right, missing them isn't the problem. I think the problem here is simple. We counted on Kirilloff, Kepler and Sano to all be middle of the order hitters in order to make this lineup click. History tells us that Kepler and Sano are not that kind of hitter and it's become even more obvious with Cruz no longer on the team to carry the middle of the order. There is no reason to expect any significant improving change from either Kepler or Sano. I hope I am wrong but they may be at the point in their careers where the change is likely to be negative, not positive. Kirilloff is at this point a complete wild card because he hasn't now been healthy for almost a year and has never proven himself at the MLB level. This team lacks a middle of the order hitter outside of maybe Polanco and that's why we can't score any runs. Guys, I think we've seen enough to know that it's time for Plan B for this season. We are not going to be able to bash other teams with slow footed power hitters. Ours are not good enough and MLB is now putting the baseballs in humidors so they don't carry as far. We need to inject speed and athleticism into the lineup. To me, that means much more playing time for Gordon in particular, and a look at AAA to see who can help us down there – maybe Miranda, Contreras, and even Martin from AA. We need to make adjustments on the fly and we need to do it soon or this season is going to be another "development year" where the team's idea of development is to continue to trot out the same guys and somehow hope they get better. Let's not do that again.

It looks like many of us agreed that the big problem is the lineup is at least three bats short of being good enough to really compete. I am a little perplexed on why people assume Urshela will be gone soon. He isn't even arbitration eligible until 2023 and isn't a free agent until 2024. I think he's here for the next two years playing third base or maybe even shortstop once Correa is gone unless Lewis is ready to take over. In any event, he's one of the 45 major league caliber bats we have and the last thing we need to do is get rid of him. We can find a place for Miranda at 1B or even as the DH. I know it is early, but I really do think it's time for us to try to move on from at least Sano and maybe also move Kepler to a 4th OF role. Let's get consistent at bats for Gordon, Larnach and Arraez (the latter against LH pitching to see if he improves), at the LF, DH and 1B spots for the next two weeks. Sano can go to part time bench bat, occasional 1B or 3B. If one or more of them don't show enough, time for Miranda, Contreras, Kirilloff if he's healthy and maybe Martin to be given the opportunity using those same positions. I would mention Lewis but I think it makes the most sense to leave him at shortstop in AAA so that he can be plugged in as the major link shortstop either after a midseason trade this year of Correa or when Correa opts out at the end of the season. I'm tired of being betwixt and between all the time, not good enough to really contend but still playing the same guys over and over who are the reason we're not good enough to really contend. Maybe playing the young guys brings us down and not up but we need to see how they fare when given a real opportunity. Besides, it frankly can't get much worse than this at the plate.

Thanks for the update, I misread the stats. I could see Garlick at the RH DH, gets his "glove" out of the field, maybe in tandem with Larnach. I couldn't agree more on Gordon - let's give him 4 ABs a game for 10 days and see what we have. Hit him 9th with Buxton leading off - or even hit them 1 and 2, and let's see if going to speed helps shock this lineup into more production. Maybe a batting order like Gordon (LF), Buxton (CF), Polanco (2B), Correa (SS), Arraez (1B), Urshela (3B), Sano/Larnach/Garlick/Sanchez (DH), Sanchez/Jeffers (C), Kepler (RF).

Love the optimism but I don't think it's warranted. Yes, I expect Correa and Polanco to come around and produce in line with their career norms. I'm also optimistic about Buxton and Urshela, and I think Arraez is a good singles hitter, with no power or speed. Sanchez isn't horrible for a catcher. The problem is that's it. Kepler is who he is - a .220-.230 hitter with a good glove and occasional power. Sano is a streaky mediocrity with no glove, and Laranch isn't much yet. Gordon is the best hitting OF we have right now. Kirilloff might hwlp but he might be hurt all year. This team is not a good offensive team with this lineup. W have no 4 or 5 hitter - Urshela, Kepler and Sano should be hitting 6,7,8 and then where do hit the C, the DH or the LF? We are offensively challenged in the 3 lineup positions where the bat is more important than the glove - 1B, LF, and DH. I would add RF in that statement. Could this team be around the middle of the pack offensively? Sure, but it isn't likely without a trade or a call up that catches fire. More likely, this is a bottom third offense on a team that will go as far as the pitching can carry it. And that ain't going to be too far.

Except Garlick can't mash lefties and he's also playing against righties. He's hitting .286 with a .714 OPS against lefties, .182 with a .636 OPS overall. Why on earth is he playing? Kepler is hitting .267 with a .754 OPS against lefties this year; for some reason he now can't hit RH pitching. IF we have room to keep Garlick around as a 5th OF/ RH pinch hitter, ok. But for God's sake, don't ever put him in the regular lineup. He isn't good enough. I really would like to see them give Gordon an everyday run in LF to see what he can do. Celestino can play occasionally against LH starters and Larnach can either play 1B or really should probably be in AAA getting every day ABs. We could use Gordon's speed and defense in the lineup and so far he's the one hitting. Performance matters. Gordon is performing; let's give him the shot. If it doesn't work, move on to the next.

It looks like the worm is turning in baseball away from the power laden lineups of the past living or dying with the home run to more old timey situational baseball. that means we need more athletes and fewer boom or bust HR guys. Martin may be that kind of athletic guy. Let's at least give him a shot at AAA to see. No reason to be paying Cave every day there, he's not going to help the big club. Put Martin in LF in AAA and see what he can do. If he succeeds, we've increased our options at the MLB level. If he fails. he goes back to AA and we haven't lost anything since Cave is not in the Twins future.

I like the premise that these 3 guys are close. The question is - how close? We have some real holes in our lineup now. I don't expect that they're going to be calling these three guys up in the next month but I do think they are going to be opportunities by Midsummer. There really is an opportunity for right-handed hitting outfielder now since I don't think any of us believe that Garlick is even much of a short term stopgap, much less any sort of long-term solution. The early returns on Larnach aren't very good no matter how we try to dress up his poor performance based on his exit velocity and barrel rates. The bottom line is he was not good last year after a hot start and has not been good this year. Kirilloff is a complete wildcard given his wrist and what appeared to be associated issues that may be more psychological than physical, but still as real. This season is rapidly circling the drain. Can we turn it around over the next month? Absolutely. Is that likely given what we've seen to date? No. I'm wondering if maybe it wouldn't make sense to give either Maranda or Martin some run in the outfield or at 1B at the major-league level starting fairly soon. I think we have to keep Lewis playing shortstop because he is the one heir apparent once Correa leaves either through a midseason trade, the more likely route the way things are going, or at the end of the year. I disagree with the previous poster, I think we have seen enough to know that Sano and Kepler are not the answer. They're not hitting this year, they didn't hit last year, and they didn't hit the year before. I would be happy to bench or trade either one of them to make room if these guys are ready for their shot.