LA VIkes Fan

This is the classic question when a team appears to be underperforming – has the manager lost clubhouse? Is the team still playing hard for him? I am genuinely curious as to whether anybody as seen or heard anything that suggests Rocco has lost this team. I haven't and I do read a lot of things and subscribe to the Athletic, but I don't listen to talk radio or anything like that. I'd really be interested if someone who actually knows something is suggested that he has lost the team because I certainly have not seen anything. This is to suggest that Rocco is a great manager, he's not, but I don't think there's an issue between him and the players. I think the bottom line with this team is that it simply does not have talent. I don't agree with Jim Souhan very often but he is right about this lineup. The top 4/5 of Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Correa and Buxton are above average but they are not great. They are pretty good. More importantly, there is no one superstar hitter among them who can carry a team for a month. All 5 of those guys would be great complimentary hitters around a true middle of the order stud but we don't have that guy. The back half of the lineup is a disaster. Nick Gordon is a nice player hitting a little bit above average and he could start on a contending team hitting in the 7 or 8 hole. Urshela is a classic starter on a 2nd division team, utility player/8 or 9 hitter on a contending team. Kepler is fourth outfielder you keep because of his defense. He can't hit. Celestino is a AAA centerfielder who you hope will make a meaningful contribution one or two years from now. Sanchez is a backup catcher, Leon is a 3rd catcher/AAA depth. Cave and Beckham are at best high minors depth who really shouldn't be on any MLB roster. You look in the minors and outside possibly of Helman there's nothing there that can help you this year. The pitching staff is similar to the top 4 or 5 hitters, solid/good but not great. The rotation is fine and could be really good if it had a number 1 starter. But we don't. The bullpen is actually pretty solid 5 to 6 pitchers deep after the trades, but the quality really falls off at the bottom. Add a #1 starter and the pitching might be good enough for a contending team with a good lineup but it's not good enough to carry the weak lineup we have. Yes, injuries have hurt, particularly the back half of the lineup and the bullpen. Yes, we will have more starters next year. . Yes there is optimism for next year because of that. All good. This year? We've been playing in June, July and August at only a little below the level of the talent we have; we should really be a slightly above .500 team not a 7 or 8 games under .500 team, but that's really where the talent is. To me the manager test is whether the team performs at or above the level of its talent. I think this team at 4-6 games over .500 is right where its talent level takes it. Has Rocco been a bad manager and hurt the team? No, I don't think so. Has he been a great manager and elevated the team? No, I don't think that's the case either. He's been ok. Kind of like the rest of the team - not great, not outstanding, not bad, not underperforming, just ok.

Bummer but not so surprising. This way he misses two starts and is available to start on 9/3 against the White Sox. Sounds like they want Smeltzer in the bullpen. Who starts Tuesday then? Maybe Sands pitches today and is then sent down for the Tuesday starter - Sanchez or maybe even Varland?

I agree and let’s see what happens today. We all know Archer will go only four or five innings. Today would be a perfect day for Sands to go 2-4 innings and then be the guy who’s optioned to AAA SO Aaron Sanchez or Smeltzer can come up and start Tuesday in Houston. Sands can then come back in 10 days and be on the Roster by 9/1 in case we make the playoffs or we can run a 6 man rotation in September.

I tend to agree with the last poster. For this team to get hot play .600 baseball for a month, which is what they need to do to win this division, either the rotation or the offense needs to take a step up. Well I think the rotation to marshmallow you prove, I think it’s much more feasible and likely for the office to take that next step. In order to do that, Arraez, Gordon and Miranda have to continue to play the way they have and 2 of Correa, Buxton and Polanco Have to get hot. I would make those three the most important because I think that’s the most likely way to win the division.

Interesting, and seems to comport with the eye test. Kepler and Sanchez are having lousy years and Correa has been decent but below standard. He has a chance though to get back to his "normal" performance, whereas Kepler and Sanchez really don't. The other interesting thing is really to show how much both Buxton and Polanco have sacrificed average for power. I frankly like to see both of them dial that back a little since I think for this team to be successful on offense it has to be a string hits together team. Not enough table setters to be a single and a blast team. Anyway, interesting stuff.

It used to be said that the difference between an "Ace" or "#1 Starter" and a mid-rotation guy was whether or not they could be effective that 3rd time through the order or during pitches 90 – 120. I frankly don't think anything's changed much at all. What's happened is that the analytics have shown us that this general rule of thumb from days of yore was actually pretty accurate. We now have the statistics to back up how most pitchers are much less effective either the 3rd time through the order or after 90-100 pitches. Those that are effective than are making $25m a year on long term contracts. I think the real issue with the Twins is that we don't have that "Ace" or number 1 or 2 starter unless its Mahle and it's too early to tell with him, particularly with the shoulder fatigue issue cropping up again. I don't think the problem is the FO or manager pulling the starting pitchers too early at all. I think their performance shows that we are doing the right thing for the most part with Gray and Ryan. Same goes for Bundy and Archer, who tend to fall apart after either 5 innings or 65-70 pitches so they get an even shorter leash. I think Baldelli is actually handling the starters correctly overall, although he does need to do a better job of giving a longer leash to at least Gray and Ryan in that one start over out of every 3 or 4 when they really appear to be "on their game" with both low pitch counts and good results. To echo many here, I think the real problem is that if you are going to handle starters this way it is incumbent upon you to have 1 or 2 multi-inning relief pinchers available to pitch at least every 2nd or 3rd day, and then to actually use them that way. I actually think that we do have a couple of those guys in the bullpen now in Jax and Sands, maybe Megill, and after yesterday maybe even Pagan could be one of those guys in a pinch. We also have Jharel Cotton, Aaron Sanchez and Devin Smeltzer in AAA who are possible candidates for this role. I know we need to keep at least 1 of the last 3 them stretched out as a starter for injury insurance but no reason not to try the others in long relief and maybe even as a shuttle since no one seems to want to pick them up when they are DFA'd. To me, this is the real failure of Rocco and the FO. When you commit to not exposing or starters that 3rd time through the order or over 90 pitches, you have to have multi-inning relievers or piggyback starters available. We don't and this is where the failure is. The good news is that is easily addressable by just letting your existing relievers go longer, like Baldelli did Wednesday out of necessity with Pagan and Jax, or altering your bullpen mix by adding in failed starters with promise like Cotton, Smeltzer, Sands and Sanchez instead of a bullpen of all short relievers. Most failed starters are guys who look great for 2-4 innings and then fall apart. Perfect long men. I know they don't like it because starters get paid a whole lot more but frankly these guys are with Twins AAA team because no one was out there giving them a starter contract. Realign your bullpen mix to have the long men available, at least 2 of them since they can't pitch every day and will need at least a day or 2 between outings, and the starter strategy probably works better. Otherwise, you burn out a bullpen of short guys and have meltdowns in late innings.

I think we are where we are and it will be hard to totally change philosophies at this point in the season. I would like to see three tweaks though. First, give Jax, Megill, and maybe even Sands 2 inning assignments on a regular basis. That's starting to happen and they can be the "bridge" between the 4-6 inning starters and the short relievers - Fullmer, Duran, and Lopez. Theilbar is more of a fireman filling multiple roles and Pagan (rhymes with "should be gone") is the low leverage guy. Second, bring up Aaron Sanchez (for Pagan) and piggyback 2 of the following 3 each time through the rotation - Sanchez, Bundy and Archer. Hopefully that gives us one start per rotation turn where 2 guys handle most or even all of the innings. Third, give Gray and maybe Ryan more rope to go into the 6th and 7th innings. Same for Mahle if he's back soon. They're as built up as we're going to get; now is the time to stretch innings. Of course, my third thought is a lot easier to implement if we could score some runs. It's a lot easier to let guys keep going when you're up 4 or 5 runs. That would help a lot.

I don't think the Twins expected to have both of them starting every 5th game all year. They thought they had 2 guys for basically 1 5th starter spot. Paddack, Winder and/or Ober were supposed to take the #3 and #4 spots. They both got hurt and these guys are the depth options we though they might be. It's a good thing they're around with the injuries and Smeltzer pitching like, well, like Smeltzer. Bottom line, good thing we have them this year. We got value for their contracts and it was a good thing we signed them. Turns out we needed them (and maybe more depending on how long Mahle is now out). Having said all that, let' s hope we don't need more than 1 of them next year.

If Mahle goes on IL he misses 2 starts - one in Houston and one against the SF Giants. Sounds like that may happen.

Agreed. He's already a #3 guy in a solid rotation.

They're saying Mahle left with "right shoulder fatigue". Sounds potentially ominous. Just hope it's the kind of thing that 15 days of rest can solve.

Yes, the explanation that Pagan throws some good pitches and then a bad one that gets hammered seems true to observation but just can't be the whole answer. He has a good strikeout rate at 12.8, high walk rate at 3.8, and he never seems to get soft contact outs early in the count. Every at bat seems like a struggle of several pitches waiting for that one bad pitch.. I can see why the Twins don't want to DFA him. His talent is such that you just have to think the results will come. Yet they haven't come for 3 (almost) full seasons and his FIP offers no real hope. It's truly bizarre.

interesting. I would never have guessed that. Why is he so bad then? I think the 49% hard hit rate this year is a big part of it, but it seems like he can't get the strikeout when he needs it and, much like today, he gives up hits on soft contact. Is it just bad luck? That seems hard to believe given his track record of futility over the last 3 years.

Wow, Pagan just doesn't have an out pitch. Dead straight fast ball only gets fouls, not swing and miss.

I disagree. Next starter up is Aaron Sanchez. He pitched well in his one try in the bigs with the Twins. I'm guessing he is the Mahle replacement. IF we need one. I'm hoping for the flu or something like that.

Great to see Gray get a shot at the 7th inning. Having said that, he can't go out an give up two solid hits to start the 7th and expect that to engender confidence with the manager. It's like when Bundy went 5 strong against the Padres (?) and promptly gave up back to back hits to start the 6th. Gotta back up the ask. Gray should get more cahnces in the 7th but he has to perform.

Who knows, but Beckham actually made a nice defensive play. Any way, had it all the way.

Hey, I'm one of Kepler's harshest critics but he did seem to adjust and hit 2 line drives to LF tonight. At this point though, we all know what were getting from him. .230/.320/.400 ish; OPs around .700-.725, and superior defense in RF. Not a bad guy to have but it would be great if we had 3 better OFs so he could be the 4th. Well, let's see, we have Buxton, and in descending order maybe Larnach (?), maaybe Kiriloff (?), maaaybe Gordon (?), and maaaaybe Celestino (?)! Cave and Contreras appear to be hard NOs, and who knows about guys in the minors like Wallner and Julien. Boy, it's going to be hard to trade him with those alternatives.

Agreed. One hopes he can be the #4 starter next year behind Mahle, Maeda and Gray. Then next year Ryan can be the #4, Ober the #5.

I so too, but I am the eternal optimist. I think it would help if the Twins would do a couple of things that I think are long overdue, think DFA Pagan and Beckham. That would at least make me think that they are trying to right the ship before this crucial stretch.

Our extreme lack of depth is really showing. Jake Cave and Tim Beckham do not belong on a major league roster yet they re really the only available replacements for Kepler. Kepler is at best the 4th OF on a contending team. Great glove, poor hitter with occasional power, should be playing 2-3 days a week hitting 8th. He's 29 people; he' snot going to get significantly better. This is who he is. Pagan should be in the bullpen of a non-contending team or in AAA. Great arm, can't handle pressure. Leon is a 3rd catcher/AAA depth, not a 50% timeshare guy. Megill should be honing his craft at AAA looking for next year's bullpen. Bundy and Archer - maybe one in a rotation, but definitely not both. Add to that, the team is lifeless outside of Arraez and Miranda. Yes, injuries are a big culprit but they don't completely explain this malaise. So what do you do? You can nibble around the edges - bring up Aaron Sanchez, DFA Pagan, put Archer in the bullpen; bring up Helman and Contreras, DFA Cave and Beckham. Maybe that helps a little. You can fire Rocco, but replace him with who? Tingler failed in San Diego and I'm not aware of anyone out there who would be an upgrade. Losing Wes Johnson was a huge loss. Bottom line, this team was barely good enough to contend this year when fully healthy. I keep saying we have about 80-85% of a good team, and I still think that's right, but only when healthy. Right now we have about 65% of a good team. I still have hope because I am the eternal optimist but my rational side says that this team will continue to slide and finish with around 82-84 wins; just over .500. Better than the 78 wins I predicted back in March but still just not good enough. Really interesting off season coming up with Correa situation. Also, I've been a big apologist for Rocco but I am beginning to think he just isn't the guy for a team like this. Looks like time for a new voice.

I don't agree. We having winning records against Seattle, Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore. Can we beat any of those teams in a playoff series? Absolutely. Can we beat Houston or Ne York in the second round? Probably not. Still worth trying.

It does make you wonder, doesn't it? Berrios gets traded, gets the big contract, and promptly falls into the sea. I hope it isn't nab injury or elbow issue. Maybe he's tipping his pitches?

Yeah, something's wrong with Berrios.

I guess the Orioles trading their closer and inspirational leader wasn't such a bad idea after all...