Parker Hageman

Good thoughts on this subject. Thanks for sharing!

For the 9-to-5ers in Twins Territory, those who did not attend the game should consider themselves lucky they stayed in the office rather than witness Nick Blackburn’s last start on Wednesday afternoon. For the second consecutive start, Blackburn was punished across the field, allowing another pair of home runs to Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. The one-time groundball-getter has failed to induce the batted ball types that earned him that label. In those two starts, he managed to get 12 grounders to 26 fly balls – hardly the worm-burning ratio. At a point when the Twins are in desperate need of a starter to just throw consistent innings Blackburn, the guy they paid millions to supply just that, has been unable to fulfill their needs. Is there any hope of Blackburn turning things around or is he simply a casualty waiting to happen? In March 2010, the Twins made the decision to sign Blackburn to a four-year deal -- in spite of coming off a season in which he led the league in hits allowed (240) -- effectively buying out his arbitration years and a year of free agency for $14 million. Not long after that Rob Antony, the team’s assistant general manager, explained the logic behind locking in Blackburn saying that the organization believed he was capable of providing the team with more than his nearly 400 innings (399.0 to be exact), 22-22 record and 4.04 ERA which he had already put up in 2008 and 2009. “You start putting down the numbers and all the comps that he has and you base it off of if he just does what he has done,” Antony said. “You don’t project that he is getting better – although we believe there is more in there. Instead of being an 11-11 guy, we believe he could easily be a 15-9 guy.” Had he simply sustained his previous production, Blackburn would have been a huge bargain for the Twins. In his first two seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric said that he was worth $24.8 million mostly based on working 200 innings. Of course, he would not be able to maintain that level of output. Injuries and general ineffectiveness has made it look like he hornswoggled the team out of millions. Over the past three seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric has said he has been only worth $2.4 million while the Twins have paid him $8.25 million in actual money. Blackburn has always been a pitcher who seems to work in a delicately balanced universe. As a high contact groundballer with the propensity to give up long home runs, he requires sterling defense behind him and laser-sharp command to guide him through his starts. If one of those items falls out of equilibrium, the levee breaks. To his credit, Blackburn seems very cognizant of his abilities and his reliance on his mechanics to help the movement in his sinker. This spring, Blackburn headed into camp talking about changes he had made to him mechanics and approach. The first was shifting to the middle of the pitching rubber away from the first base side he had lived at for most of his career. This, he said, would give added deception. The second change was getting to a more “over-the-top” release point to alleviate stress on his arm. In considering his season thus far, clearly neither addition has been the answer. While pitchers are always adapting, Blackburn’s latest mechanics seem further and further away from his successful 2009 season which landed him his large payday. Take a look at his 2009 version compared to his current one: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1340946905_Blackburn_OAK09.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_CIN12.gif If you are looking for it, you will notice several differences but the most critical difference is in his leg stride. Notice in his 2009 model that he gets his front leg up higher and instead of bringing it back down immediately, he stretches it further out towards home. There is a brief hesitation as he gets to the peak of his leg lift before bringing his leg forward. As that is happening, his weight stays back extremely well. Meanwhile, his current mechanics involve bringing the front leg down and then drifting it forward rather than stretching it as he did in 2009. Compare the two motions at the point in which he is beginning to move his front leg forward. Here you can see how much more he elevations his front leg in 2009 and how the 2012 version is taking more of a swinging path towards home. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2009-OAK.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2012-CIN.jpg Pitch F/X data details a significantly different story in the path of his sinker (classified as a two-seamer) from 2009 and 2012. In 2009, while lining up on the first base side of the rubber, Blackburn’s sinker most often was thrown on the black of the plate (in on righties, away from lefties). This, more or less, is an ideal spot for that pitch. Notice in the overhead below that the pitch has some pitcher’s glove side run to it as well. This season, with the relocation to the middle of the slab, the sinker is thrown smack dab in the center of the plate and, unlike the 2009 version, does not have much run if any. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Overhead.jpg From the strike zone view, you will see how the 2009 sinker ran in on the hands of right-handed hitters and away from the left-handed hitters’ swings. This season a solid majority of his offerings have been within the zone, giving hitters something they can square up on: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Zone.jpg In short, in 2009 he stayed back well and was able to get outstanding movement and location. In 2012, he is rushing a bit towards home which creates a timing issue and has less movement on the sinker. As has been discussed at length at Twins Daily’s forum, Blackburn is currently a sunk cost to the Twins. He now has thrown several stinkers in a row without any signs of improving. The general attitude among the community appears to be to cut him loose and give those innings to another pitcher. Unfortunately, the team is on the hook again for $5.5 million next year and, with the current state of the rotation, the Twins could certainly use the 2009 version of Blackburn again. There are probably some very good reasons behind Blackburn’s mechanical changes since 2009. However, given his struggles, I would submit that it cannot hurt to attempt to return to the motion he was using back when the front office invested $14 million in him and his power sinker.

For the 9-to-5ers in Twins Territory, those who did not attend the game should consider themselves lucky they stayed in the office rather than witness Nick Blackburn’s last start on Wednesday afternoon. For the second consecutive start, Blackburn was punished across the field, allowing another pair of home runs to Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. The one-time groundball-getter has failed to induce the batted ball types that earned him that label. In those two starts, he managed to get 12 grounders to 26 fly balls – hardly the worm-burning ratio. At a point when the Twins are in desperate need of a starter to just throw consistent innings Blackburn, the guy they paid millions to supply just that, has been unable to fulfill their needs. Is there any hope of Blackburn turning things around or is he simply a casualty waiting to happen? In March 2010, the Twins made the decision to sign Blackburn to a four-year deal -- in spite of coming off a season in which he led the league in hits allowed (240) -- effectively buying out his arbitration years and a year of free agency for $14 million. Not long after that Rob Antony, the team’s assistant general manager, explained the logic behind locking in Blackburn saying that the organization believed he was capable of providing the team with more than his nearly 400 innings (399.0 to be exact), 22-22 record and 4.04 ERA which he had already put up in 2008 and 2009. “You start putting down the numbers and all the comps that he has and you base it off of if he just does what he has done,” Antony said. “You don’t project that he is getting better – although we believe there is more in there. Instead of being an 11-11 guy, we believe he could easily be a 15-9 guy.” Had he simply sustained his previous production, Blackburn would have been a huge bargain for the Twins. In his first two seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric said that he was worth $24.8 million mostly based on working 200 innings. Of course, he would not be able to maintain that level of output. Injuries and general ineffectiveness has made it look like he hornswoggled the team out of millions. Over the past three seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric has said he has been only worth $2.4 million while the Twins have paid him $8.25 million in actual money. Blackburn has always been a pitcher who seems to work in a delicately balanced universe. As a high contact groundballer with the propensity to give up long home runs, he requires sterling defense behind him and laser-sharp command to guide him through his starts. If one of those items falls out of equilibrium, the levee breaks. To his credit, Blackburn seems very cognizant of his abilities and his reliance on his mechanics to help the movement in his sinker. This spring, Blackburn headed into camp talking about changes he had made to him mechanics and approach. The first was shifting to the middle of the pitching rubber away from the first base side he had lived at for most of his career. This, he said, would give added deception. The second change was getting to a more “over-the-top” release point to alleviate stress on his arm. In considering his season thus far, clearly neither addition has been the answer. While pitchers are always adapting, Blackburn’s latest mechanics seem further and further away from his successful 2009 season which landed him his large payday. Take a look at his 2009 version compared to his current one: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1340946905_Blackburn_OAK09.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_CIN12.gif If you are looking for it, you will notice several differences but the most critical difference is in his leg stride. Notice in his 2009 model that he gets his front leg up higher and instead of bringing it back down immediately, he stretches it further out towards home. There is a brief hesitation as he gets to the peak of his leg lift before bringing his leg forward. As that is happening, his weight stays back extremely well. Meanwhile, his current mechanics involve bringing the front leg down and then drifting it forward rather than stretching it as he did in 2009. Compare the two motions at the point in which he is beginning to move his front leg forward. Here you can see how much more he elevations his front leg in 2009 and how the 2012 version is taking more of a swinging path towards home. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2009-OAK.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2012-CIN.jpg Pitch F/X data details a significantly different story in the path of his sinker (classified as a two-seamer) from 2009 and 2012. In 2009, while lining up on the first base side of the rubber, Blackburn’s sinker most often was thrown on the black of the plate (in on righties, away from lefties). This, more or less, is an ideal spot for that pitch. Notice in the overhead below that the pitch has some pitcher’s glove side run to it as well. This season, with the relocation to the middle of the slab, the sinker is thrown smack dab in the center of the plate and, unlike the 2009 version, does not have much run if any. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Overhead.jpg From the strike zone view, you will see how the 2009 sinker ran in on the hands of right-handed hitters and away from the left-handed hitters’ swings. This season a solid majority of his offerings have been within the zone, giving hitters something they can square up on: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Zone.jpg In short, in 2009 he stayed back well and was able to get outstanding movement and location. In 2012, he is rushing a bit towards home which creates a timing issue and has less movement on the sinker. As has been discussed at length at Twins Daily’s forum, Blackburn is currently a sunk cost to the Twins. He now has thrown several stinkers in a row without any signs of improving. The general attitude among the community appears to be to cut him loose and give those innings to another pitcher. Unfortunately, the team is on the hook again for $5.5 million next year and, with the current state of the rotation, the Twins could certainly use the 2009 version of Blackburn again. There are probably some very good reasons behind Blackburn’s mechanical changes since 2009. However, given his struggles, I would submit that it cannot hurt to attempt to return to the motion he was using back when the front office invested $14 million in him and his power sinker.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1374[/ATTACH]Ever since his demotion to the bullpen, Francisco Liriano has been back to his new-old self. In 37.1 innings, Liriano has posted a much improved 2.41 ERA, limited hitters to a .157 average against and has struck out 40 while walking just 14 thanks to rekindling his relationship with his dirty, dirty slider. Nevertheless, even with the improvement, the Twins front office has to be considering moving the enigmatic starter at the upcoming trade deadline because of the current state of the organization and the $12 million price tag required to offer him in arbitration in order to secure a compensatory draft pick. If the Twins are committed to rebuilding and strengthening the organization for several years instead of just next year, trading the rejuvenated Liriano makes complete sense. The question is what sort of return can the Twins expect at the deadline? FoxSports.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted yesterday that his club sources told him that officials expect “robust” interest in Liriano based on his recent performance. With the added Wild Card berth granted this year, clearly more teams will consider themselves buyers rather than sellers and the deadline. And, if what Morosi said is accurate, Liriano’s value is elevated by a number of clubs competing for his service and the Twins return should be expectedly more substantial. Of course, it is not quite that cut-and-dry. For starters, Liriano’s impending free agency undoubtedly drives his return down. After all, we’re not talking a Cliff Lee/CC Sabathia-type track record that would merit a team unloading multiple prospects for the half-season rental. Liriano has just six consecutive starts in which he’s pitched well. Furthermore, even though he has not shown it this season, he remains an injury concern. Since 2001, there seems to be just a few trades that occurred at the non-waiver deadline that are comparable to the Twins if they choose to move Liriano by himself (if they add players to the trade, all bets are off). On July 28th, 2010, the 56-44 Chicago White Sox were clinging to a one-game lead over the Twins and looking to further distance themselves by adding some starting pitching. Sox GM Kenny Williams targeted the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hard-throwing right-handed, 26-year-old Edwin Jackson. Jackson, who had worked 397.1 innings with a 27-20 record along with a 3.99 ERA the previous two seasons, was not finding the National League nearly as accommodating as Tampa Bay or Detroit. In 21 starts with the Arizona club in 2010, he went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA while walking four batters per nine innings – his highest rate since 2007. Despite that performance, Chicago’s lust for a winner and Jackson’s recent success combined with a 94 mile per hour fastball incited Williams to pull the trigger by sending their third and eighth highest ranking prospects according to Baseball America in right-handed starter Dan Hudson and lefty David Holmberg. Hudson has been extremely valuable in Arizona, going 26-14 in 52 starts with a very nice 3.47 ERA while striking out 273 and walking just 78 in 345.1 innings pitched. Holmberg, meanwhile, has turned 20 years old this year but is a fast-moving prospect in the Dback’s system. In his stop at high-A Visalia he struck out 86 batters in 78.1 innings and was bumped to AA Mobile. What’s the likelihood of this scenario playing out for the Twins? I wouldn’t hold my breath. Unlike Liriano, Jackson was under contract at the time and due to make a reasonable sum of $8.35 million in 2011 and he had also never showed much injury potential making his acquisition seemingly less risky than Liriano. Still, never underestimate a GM who reeks of desperation for a winner, as Williams proved, who was willing to flip a productive and club-controlled pitcher for one they felt could contribute immediately. If the Jackson-for-Hudson trade is at one end of the potential spectrum (the “hey, wouldn’t it be great if…” end of the spectrum) at the other end is the Kyle Lohse-to-Philly trade in 2007 (the “hey, this feels about right” end). That year, the Phillies, who had finished second in the NL East for three consecutive seasons and were denied playoff berths, wanted to improve their starting rotation. Curiously enough, they tapped into Cincinnati’s Lohse who had been traded from Minnesota to the Reds one year ago to the day. In Lohse, the Phillies were receiving a 28-year-old right-hander who had seen a steady decline in his performance since his solid 2003 season – although his record while in Cincinnati was more reflective of his lack of run support, receiving below average offense in his time with the Reds. In exchange, Philadelphia shipped a left-handed pitcher who was tearing up the lower ranks of their system: 23-year-old Matt Maloney. Although Lohse is nothing like Liriano in terms of style – Liriano’s ceiling and floor is wildly different than Lohse’s had been up to that point - their situations share similarities. For instance, when traded, Lohse would be paid a prorated share of his $4.2 million salary, not all too different from Liriano’s $5.5 million. Both were reasonable contracts to assume but potential trade partners likely recognize that the current teams (the Reds and Twins respectively) were not planning on retaining either pitcher. As Twins fans know by now, Maloney never quite panned out but back in 2007, he was an interesting commodity for Cincinnati. As Baseball America pointed out, Maloney had just come off a season in the South Atlantic League in which he was named Pitcher of the Year thanks to leading the league in wins (16), innings (169) and strikeouts (180) and finishing a close second in ERA (2.03). Since they were going to lose Lohse to free agency likely anyways, landing an intriguing arm in exchange seemed like a fair compensation. Obviously, it is hard to predict what the market with do for Liriano with a month remaining to the deadline. If he continues his current output, it is easy to see more teams jumping into the fray (such as the Toronto Blue Jays who Nick Nelson wrote about today) and perhaps push offers up towards the Daniel Hudson level. However, if he falters a bit, his stock likely drops to the Maloney-prospect-gamble range.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1303[/ATTACH]Francisco Liriano’s first six starts of the season were nothing short of disappointing. With plenty of raw talent, the Twins potential rotation leader failed miserably, throwing 26.2 innings, allowed 37 hits (six of which were home runs), posted a terrible 21-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio and failed to pitch into to the sixth inning in all but one start. In that time, Liriano was drastically out of whack mechanically and the coaching staff had even tried to recreate his spring training success by getting him to throw his four-seam fastball more than his two-seamer which he struggled to command. The changes did not keep him from derailing and a shift to the bullpen would be required. After several outings in the ‘pen, injuries and perhaps a need to inflate his trade value necessitated his return to the rotation. Even though the team’s record in those four starts may not reflect it (1-3), Liriano has been a better pitcher during this more recent stretch. He’s worked 23.2 innings (completing six innings in all but one start in which he fell one out shy of the mark) and has allowed just 12 hits to go along with a much improved 29-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. One of the main reasons for this subtle rejuvenation is that he has increased his slider usage. In the past three years, Liriano has had one of the game’s best sliders. According to Fangraphs.com, since 2010 Liriano’s slider has been “worth” 23.6 runs above average, making it the eighth most valuable slider in that time. However, he was encouraged to throw his two-seam fastball more often in attempts to get more quick outs – a ground ball here and there – to avoid getting into deeper counts like most strikeout pitchers do. So, during his first stint in the rotation this year (April 1 – May 7), Liriano favored the two-seam fastball, throwing it 52% of the time and, of those, threw 56% for strikes – a good not great rate. Because of favoring his two-seamer, he threw his slider just 26% of the time in those six starts. In his second stint in the rotation (May 30 – Present), Liriano has leaned more on the biting slider, mixing it in now at 38% of the time. [TABLE=align: center] [TD=colspan: 4]Francisco Liriano – Slider Usage (2012)[/TD] [/TD][TD]Two-Seam Fastball Slider Batting Average April 1 – May 7 52% 26% .346 May 30 – June 15 38% 38% .143 [/TABLE] What’s more is that not only is Liriano using the breaking ball more frequently across the board he is also using it quite a bit to start off each batter in efforts to get ahead of opponents. One of Liriano’s shortcomings these past two years has been his inability to get ahead of hitters. In fact, of starters who have thrown a minimum of 150 innings since 2011, Liriano’s 51% first-pitch strike rate was the lowest in baseball. Not surprisingly, Liriano mainly threw his two-seam fastball on the first pitch and 62% of the time in his first six starts. Meanwhile, in his second go round, he has increased the amount of slider’s he has thrown (from 22% to 36%) and reduced the amount of two-seamers (from 62% to 38%). Because his slider has a much higher strike rate than his fastball, Liriano has found himself ahead in the count more in these last four starts. The change in his pitch distribution has led not only to more strikes but also more ground balls. Liriano’s slider is a ground ball manufacturer and in his first six starts, he exercised a GB/FB split of 0.69, meaning he was inducing more fly balls than grounders (as seen in his six home runs allowed in that time). More recently, that batted ball ratio has increased to 1.00 GB/FB which means the amount of grounders has grown (and he has allowed just one home run in those four starts). What we are likely seeing is Liriano upping his value from absolute zero to something that could bring the Twins a decent prospect in return if he continues this performance and the Twins decide to move him. Watch for Liriano to throw more slide pieces in tonight’s start again Pittsburgh.

Aaron and special guest co-hosts Parker Hageman and Joe Nelson talk about Trevor Plouffe's power explosion, Liam Hendriks' long-ball troubles, whether or not the Twins should be looking to trade Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and other veterans, why a filthy Twitter is a good thing, the development of power pitchers, and a phone call from a vacationing John Bonnes. Here are: the podcast the rss feed the podcast on itunes

Aaron and special guest co-hosts Parker Hageman and Joe Nelson talk about Trevor Plouffe's power explosion, Liam Hendriks' long-ball troubles, whether or not the Twins should be looking to trade Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and other veterans, why a filthy Twitter is a good thing, the development of power pitchers, and a phone call from a vacationing John Bonnes. Here are: the podcast the rss feed the podcast on itunes

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1246[/ATTACH]No one would blame Liam Hendriks if he wakes up in the middle of the night because of some horrific dreams involving Ryan Braun. After all, the Brewers outfielder tormented Hendriks throughout the afternoon, going 2-for-2 with a pair of home runs and a walk. Braun has inspired fear in all of baseball’s pitchers - now amassing 19 home runs thanks to his multi-homer day at Target Field - and Milwaukee’s big right-handed bat showed why he’s such a good hitter, grinding through a nine-pitch match-up in the third inning and finally got Hendriks to throw something that he could handle. After falling behind 1-2 in the count, Braun made Hendriks labor and fouled off three pitches, working himself into a full count and drove the Hendriks’ fastball into the right field flower bed for an opposite field home runs – a rare feat for a right-handed hitter a Target Field. “Braun’s a strong guy and knows what he’s looking for,” said manager Ron Gardenhire. “He knows how to come to the plate and knows how to protect. He fights off some pitches and finally gets to a pitch he can do something with.” Meanwhile, one pitch later, Aramis Ramirez would pull a first-pitch slider over the fence, giving Milwaukee a quick four run lead, ample cushion for Brewers’ starter Michael Fiers who kept the Twins hitters off-balanced with an array of pitches including a very good cutter and slow curve. Fiers managed to avoid any damage from the league’s hottest hitter, Trevor Plouffe, by bypassing the strike zone altogether, walking him in two of their three match-ups on the afternoon. In all, Plouffe would be walked three times in the game – a career-high for the Twins third baseman. Whether this was a strategy implemented by the Brewers in response to Plouffe’s monumental month is unknown, but Gardenhire gave him plenty of credit for not caving into those pitches out of the zone. “Trevor didn’t chase, he didn’t give in. Whether their pitching around him or not, I don’t know but I know he didn’t chase the pitches and force the issue.” Braun, Plouffe’s off-season workout compatriot, would strike again in the fifth, sending his second home run on the day in the bullpen and equaling Plouffe’s multi-home run game from the night before. In response to the second shot, Hendriks said it was not his intention of giving Braun something he could handle on that particular pitch. “I threw a slider which I did not get it off the plate enough – I was trying to get it away off the plate for a ball – and I left it a little bit over and he put a good swing on that one as well” The three home runs allowed by Hendriks on the day was the sixth time this season one Twins pitcher has allowed a trifecta of home runs in a game. Despite being hit with the loss, Hendriks’ day was not all bad. In five innings he did strikeout five, walked just one and coaxed seven ground ball outs to just two fly ball outs but, in a rare defensive off-day for Jamey Carroll, the veteran second baseman committed two errors – just the second time he has done so in one game in his career. Had Carroll was able corral the second inning grounder or held on to the foul pop from Braun in the fifth, Hendriks may have come away from his first start back in Minnesota since the May demotion a little less scathed. Still Hendriks, who was coming off a 125-pitch start for Rochester seven days ago, did not look crisp as he fell behind hitters early in the game and had required 39 pitches through the first two innings. Being behind shifted the advantage to the Brewers’ offense, which took control of the game. “I think you saw Hendriks behind in the count quite a bit,” said Gardenhire. “He left his breaking ball up a couple of times and they made him pay for it, banged it out of the ballpark.”

Unquestionably, Trevor Plouffe has been one of the hottest hitters in the month of June, smacking eight home runs and five in the past six games. Needless to say, it took plenty of work and patience on both the part of Plouffe and the Minnesota Twins to coax this power out. If you review his minor league numbers, he was scarcely a player one would describe as being blessed with raw power. After all, he hit 49 home runs in his first 680 games in the minors, hardly a fountain of clout. Nevertheless, with a steady tinkering of his mechanics and approach, the Twins were able to tap into a substantial, if unexpected, power source. Over the past three seasons, Plouffe has made the transition from a slasher to an unbelievably potent bat. In 2010, Plouffe maintained a somewhat crouched, closed stance. He held his hands high and, as you can see in the video clip, he had plenty of pre-swing bat movement. This caused him to have to move his hands a great distance from close to his head all the way back to the load position. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_F.jpg However, in 2011, as you can see in the front view image below, Plouffe opened up his stance, keeping his front foot aim towards the shortstop side of the diamond, rather than at the second base side. This season, he made two important changes that aided him in hitting a career-high 26 home runs split between Rochester and Minnesota. The first was keeping his bat still before the pitch. The second was incorporating a more violent leg kick, helping to generate power. In 2010 Plouffe hit what was then a career best of 15 home runs in 445 plate appearances at Rochester. In 2011 it took him only 220 plate appearances to reach that mark proving he was progressing in the power department. A strong kid, Plouffe’s mechanical adjustments resulted in a batted ball type shift from being a ground ball hitter to one who could elevate pitches. Prior to 2011, his ground ball rate was consistently between 42% and 50% in the minors. Afterwards, that ground ball rate dropped significantly to 31% while at Rochester in 2011. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_SV.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_SV.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_F.jpg Fast forward to the current season, Plouffe started the year off extremely slow, hitting just .133 with two home runs in his first 73 plate appearances. For the most part, his mechanics were very much the same as his 2011 season – one which produced both a glutton and famine of production. He still had the opened stance, the tall starting position and aggressive leg kick but now he was getting his bat position off of his body. As you can see from the front view below, Plouffe moved his hands away from his body a bit and, as has been repeated by the FSN analysts, Ron Coomer and Roy Smalley, Joe Vavra was working on getting him to keep his head still during his swing to improve his contact rate. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV1.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV1.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_F1.jpg In the season’s first two months, Plouffe was hitting a high percentage of fly balls, but did not quite get the desired distance. As I mentioned a little over a week ago, that began to change rapidly. This month Plouffe has turned into a manimal, tearing the cover off the ball and obliterating opponent’s fastballs. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value data, Plouffe has hit the fastball 5.2 runs above average in June alone – only the Angels’ Mike Trout at 7.8 runs above average has had a better month against the heat. This has led to eight home runs over 46 plate appearances and another four doubles to boot. There are a few minor alterations Plouffe has made since May 28 that has led to this unbridled and unadulterated display of power. The first is getting his back elbow up, which you can see in both the side and front view images. The second, and probably more important addition, is that he is placing his weight more on his back leg and giving him a slightly lowered and wider stance. In the video clip you will see that, in action, he keeps his weight back during his leg kick and we see his hip rotation is centered well almost directly above his back leg. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV2.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV2.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_F2.jpg What helps too is Plouffe’s ability to make contact out in front and pull the ball. As I have previously discussed in regards to Josh Willingham Target Field can been inviting to those who have mastered the art of pulling the ball with authority. Now you can add Plouffe to that list. In terms of isolated slugging, a metric that subtracts batting average from slugging percentage to reveal just the power contributions, Plouffe has posted a .692 isolated slugging percentage when pulling the ball, second only behind Chicago’s Adam Dunn (.828). Will Plouffe’s power continue? Despite the improvement in his swing, a lot of whether he continues to pop has to do with his contact rates, pitch recognition and ability to adjust. A year ago, we saw some streaky power binges but opponents were able to get him to expand the zone (32% out-of-zone swing rate versus 31% league average) while his in-zone contact was firmly below average (83% in-zone contact versus 88% league average), which may be attributed to the aforementioned head movement that Vavra was attempting to correct. So far this year Plouffe has been noticeably better in both departments. He has greatly reduced his tendency to chase after pitches (26% out-of-zone swing rate versus 30% league average) and has an above average contact rate with in-zone pitches (89% in-zone contact versus 87% league average). Part of the improvement in his contact rate, along with the potential head stabilization, is his ability to handle sliders better. In 2011, Plouffe was unable to do much against sliders, particularly from right-handed pitchers. PitchF/X data suggests he swung at 51.6% of all sliders thrown his direction that year and, all said, he was 1.4 runs below average when facing sliders. Plouffe’s inability to allow a slider to pass by likely was the reason behind his ground ball rate spiking to 40%. This year, however, he has managed to lay off more often than not when a pitcher spins one his direction. PitchF/X data says he’s swinging just 36% of the time on sliders. What’s more is that when he does put a swing on a slider, he has been doing damage to the tune of 1.9 runs above average. Last, as mentioned above, Plouffe has been decimating fastballs, particularly on the inner-half of the zone. These facts will not likely escape advanced scouts for upcoming opponents. Soon enough, the fastball well will dry up or teams will begin to stay away from the inside part of the plate. Plouffe will need to adjust to whatever the new plan of attack is and continue to punish any mistakes thrown his way.

Unquestionably, Trevor Plouffe has been one of the hottest hitters in the month of June, smacking eight home runs and five in the past six games. Needless to say, it took plenty of work and patience on both the part of Plouffe and the Minnesota Twins to coax this power out. If you review his minor league numbers, he was scarcely a player one would describe as being blessed with raw power. After all, he hit 49 home runs in his first 680 games in the minors, hardly a fountain of clout. Nevertheless, with a steady tinkering of his mechanics and approach, the Twins were able to tap into a substantial, if unexpected, power source. Over the past three seasons, Plouffe has made the transition from a slasher to an unbelievably potent bat. In 2010, Plouffe maintained a somewhat crouched, closed stance. He held his hands high and, as you can see in the video clip, he had plenty of pre-swing bat movement. This caused him to have to move his hands a great distance from close to his head all the way back to the load position. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_F.jpg However, in 2011, as you can see in the front view image below, Plouffe opened up his stance, keeping his front foot aim towards the shortstop side of the diamond, rather than at the second base side. This season, he made two important changes that aided him in hitting a career-high 26 home runs split between Rochester and Minnesota. The first was keeping his bat still before the pitch. The second was incorporating a more violent leg kick, helping to generate power. In 2010 Plouffe hit what was then a career best of 15 home runs in 445 plate appearances at Rochester. In 2011 it took him only 220 plate appearances to reach that mark proving he was progressing in the power department. A strong kid, Plouffe’s mechanical adjustments resulted in a batted ball type shift from being a ground ball hitter to one who could elevate pitches. Prior to 2011, his ground ball rate was consistently between 42% and 50% in the minors. Afterwards, that ground ball rate dropped significantly to 31% while at Rochester in 2011. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_SV.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_SV.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_F.jpg Fast forward to the current season, Plouffe started the year off extremely slow, hitting just .133 with two home runs in his first 73 plate appearances. For the most part, his mechanics were very much the same as his 2011 season – one which produced both a glutton and famine of production. He still had the opened stance, the tall starting position and aggressive leg kick but now he was getting his bat position off of his body. As you can see from the front view below, Plouffe moved his hands away from his body a bit and, as has been repeated by the FSN analysts, Ron Coomer and Roy Smalley, Joe Vavra was working on getting him to keep his head still during his swing to improve his contact rate. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV1.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV1.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_F1.jpg In the season’s first two months, Plouffe was hitting a high percentage of fly balls, but did not quite get the desired distance. As I mentioned a little over a week ago, that began to change rapidly. This month Plouffe has turned into a manimal, tearing the cover off the ball and obliterating opponent’s fastballs. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value data, Plouffe has hit the fastball 5.2 runs above average in June alone – only the Angels’ Mike Trout at 7.8 runs above average has had a better month against the heat. This has led to eight home runs over 46 plate appearances and another four doubles to boot. There are a few minor alterations Plouffe has made since May 28 that has led to this unbridled and unadulterated display of power. The first is getting his back elbow up, which you can see in both the side and front view images. The second, and probably more important addition, is that he is placing his weight more on his back leg and giving him a slightly lowered and wider stance. In the video clip you will see that, in action, he keeps his weight back during his leg kick and we see his hip rotation is centered well almost directly above his back leg. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV2.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV2.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_F2.jpg What helps too is Plouffe’s ability to make contact out in front and pull the ball. As I have previously discussed in regards to Josh Willingham Target Field can been inviting to those who have mastered the art of pulling the ball with authority. Now you can add Plouffe to that list. In terms of isolated slugging, a metric that subtracts batting average from slugging percentage to reveal just the power contributions, Plouffe has posted a .692 isolated slugging percentage when pulling the ball, second only behind Chicago’s Adam Dunn (.828). Will Plouffe’s power continue? Despite the improvement in his swing, a lot of whether he continues to pop has to do with his contact rates, pitch recognition and ability to adjust. A year ago, we saw some streaky power binges but opponents were able to get him to expand the zone (32% out-of-zone swing rate versus 31% league average) while his in-zone contact was firmly below average (83% in-zone contact versus 88% league average), which may be attributed to the aforementioned head movement that Vavra was attempting to correct. So far this year Plouffe has been noticeably better in both departments. He has greatly reduced his tendency to chase after pitches (26% out-of-zone swing rate versus 30% league average) and has an above average contact rate with in-zone pitches (89% in-zone contact versus 87% league average). Part of the improvement in his contact rate, along with the potential head stabilization, is his ability to handle sliders better. In 2011, Plouffe was unable to do much against sliders, particularly from right-handed pitchers. PitchF/X data suggests he swung at 51.6% of all sliders thrown his direction that year and, all said, he was 1.4 runs below average when facing sliders. Plouffe’s inability to allow a slider to pass by likely was the reason behind his ground ball rate spiking to 40%. This year, however, he has managed to lay off more often than not when a pitcher spins one his direction. PitchF/X data says he’s swinging just 36% of the time on sliders. What’s more is that when he does put a swing on a slider, he has been doing damage to the tune of 1.9 runs above average. Last, as mentioned above, Plouffe has been decimating fastballs, particularly on the inner-half of the zone. These facts will not likely escape advanced scouts for upcoming opponents. Soon enough, the fastball well will dry up or teams will begin to stay away from the inside part of the plate. Plouffe will need to adjust to whatever the new plan of attack is and continue to punish any mistakes thrown his way.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1220[/ATTACH]The Twins save $200,000 by locking up their number two overall draft pick, Byron Buxton, to a $6 million dollar bonus, slightly under Major League Baseball’s new slot recommendations, reports Baseball America’s Jim Callis. As Callis mentions, Buxton’s signing represents a 25% increase over this year’s first pick of the draft, Houston’s Carlos Correa, who signed with the Astros on June 7 for a reported sum of $4.8 million. Buxton, 18, is a significant investment over last year’s selection, UNC’s Levi Michael, who the Twins inked for just $1.175 million. Also, unlike last year’s selection, the Twins saved themselves two months of lost development time by signing Buxton in June rather than August as they did for Michael. Michael, who was two years older than Buxton when drafted, has just begun his professional career at High-A Fort Myers and is scuffling against the competition, hitting .214/.308/.286 in 226 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Buxton will likely have the opportunity to experience his first season as a professional in 2012 at one of the two Rookie level teams, potentially starting with GCL Twins and then progressing to Elizabethton. Prior to his signing, Buxton was on-hand at Target Field after his physical and took some batting practice with the team. MLB.com correspondent Jordan Garretson witnessed his round in the cages and tweeted that his performance was “not really blowing anyone away”, noting that he was “spraying line drives around the field.” Now, this is obviously a premature assessment of Buxton’s true talents, particularly given the whirlwind the past few weeks must have been. What’s more is given Buxton’s lack of home run power in high school not having upper deck power at this point should be expected. Nevertheless, FSN did mention he eventually dropped a shot into the bullpen in left-center field which is clearly distance reserved for those wearing big-boy pants. In short, the raw power is not quite there. As ESPN.com’s Keith Law noted, his current power on a 20-80 scale rates at 35 while his potential is closer to 60. So obviously there is room to grow. With potential that has been regularly compared to Arizona’s Justin Upton and the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, Buxton’s developmental path looks like it will be more similar to Kemp’s than Upton’s. The Diamondback’s took a rather aggressive approach with their number one overall pick in 2005. They inserted the 18 year old into the Midwest League (Low-A) a year after his selection and Upton crushed immediately, hitting 12 home runs and posting a .263/.343/.413 batting line. Meanwhile, Kemp, who was a sixth round pick out of high school, was sent to the Gulf Coast League immediately after the draft and hit just one home run with a .270/.298/.346 batting line. It was not until his first full season in the minors that his true power talents began to emerge. Offensively, Buxton feels more like a Kemp who eventually obtained power versus an Upton who hit for power out of the gates. Fortunately for the Twins - who moved quickly to lock up their highest selection since Joe Mauer in 2001 - they will have the opportunity to start his development right away and put him on the path to hopeful reach his comparables.

If you had not noticed, Rochester Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky has been a Mr. Fix-It when it comes to the system’s hitters. He has worked well with the young players in the organization, helping get the most out of middling prospects as well as putting the finishing touches on fast-risers in the system. Brian Dozier, Darin Mastroianni and Ben Revere, among others, are all members of the Twins who have credited Brunansky with tinkering with their swings to favorable results over the past two years. When Dozier encountered Brunansky for the first time in New Britain, the former Twin helped the current Twins shortstop add a bit more power to his stroke. Thanks in part to Brunansky’s tutelage the middle infielder went from a high ground-ball hitter to one who hit a high percentage of line drives and more fly balls. This led to a few more extra base hits, including a career-high 22 doubles in 351 plate appearances with the Rock Cats, and put him on Ron Gardenhire’s radar. LaVelle Neal reported that Brunansky had approached Mastroianni about changing his swing in spring training. The speedy outfielder tried it out at that time but it did not take. Sent to New Britain out of the chute, when Mastroianni was promoted to Rochester he worked with Brunansky on incorporating the previous changes into his swing. Mastroianni’s production went off the charts in the International League as in 84 plate appearances the 27-year-old hit .346/.393/.423 and was called to Minnesota. Most notably was the change in the trajectory of his batted balls. Previously a hitter whose ground ball rate was upper 40%/lower 50%, Mastroianni was able to generate more lift and posted a ground ball rate below 40% for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, in Revere’s case, Brunansky attempted to reduce his hand movement. As Brunansky told Sloane Martin of the Rochester Baseball Observer: After performing well with the Twins’ AAA affiliate, Revere was recalled in mid-May. Since his return to Minnesota, he has gone 22-for-70 (.314) with a very impressive .429 slugging percentage thanks, in part, to being able to drive the ball a bit further – perhaps a direct result of him reducing his hand movement. Interestingly enough, Revere recently told the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman that his success as of last was due to a video revelation which involved another aspect of his hands: So Revere’s success could be attributed to Brunansky, Revere’s own findings or maybe a little bit of both. Another one of Brunansky’s scholars, Chris Parmelee, will have the opportunity to show that, like Revere, the Red Wings hitting coach’s methods can reap dividends at the major league level. Following a month-and-a-half of offensive ineptitude with the Twins, Parmelee was returned to Brunansky with a simple task: Fix it. Opponents attacked Parmelee’s weak spots, exploiting a long swing by blowing him apart with fastballs on the outer-half of the plate and getting him to chase curveballs out of the zone. Having worked with Parmelee in 2011 while the hitting coach for New Britain, upon arrival to Rochester, Brunansky appeared confident that he could correct what was ailing Parmelee. According to Martin: Placed back under Brunansky’s guidance, Parmelee raked with Rochester. In 58 plate appearances, he hit .370/.500/.717 with four doubles and four home runs. What’s more is that after showing poor zone judgment with the Twins at the beginning of the year, Parmelee coaxed 12 walks (21% walk rate), a positive sign that not only is he stinging the ball well but also has the wherewithal to lay off those off the plate. As mentioned above, Parmelee’s swing elongated with the Twins this year. During one broadcast FSN analyst and former Twin Roy Smalley pointed out that Parmelee’s tendency to open up quickly caused his bat speed to drag thus giving him fits when being pitched away. Clearly, this needed some attention. One adjustment that we can see Parmelee and Brunansky feature was a reduction in Parmelee’s open stance. By bringing his front leg closer to the plate, Parmelee’s first movement towards the plate with his weight does not have to be as significant as it once was and, in theory, he will not have to open up his hips as quickly to attempt to “catch up” during his swing – the part of his swing which Smalley pointed out was actually slowing his bat down. In short, the new stance should improve his coverage by keeping him from needing to commit early. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1168[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]1169[/ATTACH] It is hard to argue against Parmelee’s results but if there is one thing to be cautious over it is that his line drive rate evaporated while in Rochester. At the major league level, Parmelee had a line drive rate close to 20% but he exchanged those ropes for flies in Rochester, lining only 13% of his total balls put into play. It seems that fly balls have an easier time sneaking out of single-tiered stadiums over ones like Target Field. Admittedly, for every Brunansky success story like Dozier, Revere and potentially Parmelee, there are guys like Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni and Danny Valencia who seem to head in the opposite direction which reminds us of the baseball truism is that you will have many more misses than you do hits.