Parker Hageman

The 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees on Monday night was one that helped knock the collective monkey off of their backs for the Minnesota Twins. After all, Yankee Stadium – be it the original or this new theme park – has long given the Twins fits. Individually, too, Twins players shrugged off the load that had been weighing them down to lead to the third win of the season. Carl Pavano, who became a pariah in the five boroughs after his disabled tenure with the Yankees, proved that he’s advanced beyond simply being a punch line. Sure, he allowed two back-to-back home runs to start the game and quickly coughed up the 2-0 lead the Twins provided him, yet he remained calm and hit his spots – specifically that spot two-and-a-half inches off of the plate that umpire Gerry Davis was giving him. He worked in a devastating change-up that he buried on his opponents, getting them to miss on seven of the 26 he threw. After a series against Texas in which he went 1-for-12 with five strikeouts, people were starting to get restless about Justin Morneau’s recovery. Offensively, he looked overmatched and, as Nick Nelson examined, his plate discipline numbers were the truly worrisome part. A year ago, one of Morneau’s biggest problems was pulling open off the pitch and leaving the outer half of the plate wide open for opposing pitchers. Nevertheless, positioned at first base tonight, Morneau appeared much more dialed in following his first at bat. In his third trip to the plate, Morneau timed a Freddy Garcia “fastball” perfectly and launched a shot into the Yankees’ bullpen area. After the game, Morneau told FSN’s Robby Incmikoski that following his first plate appearance of the night, he told himself to consciously wait back. Coming into Monday night’s game, Joe Mauer was holding a ground ball rate over 60%. That tape measure shot he sent into the stands against the Angels seemed like a distance memory as the Rangers kept the Twins catcher from doing much elevating. He finished the last series going 2-for-10 while grounding into two double plays – bringing his season total of twin killings to MLB-leading four. Answering some of his critics, Mauer smacked a double to left in the first and followed that up with a double to right in the fifth inning. Danny Valencia, who had been chastised by his manager in 2011 for failing to take the ball the other way, came up in the eighth inning with the Twins holding a decent but never comfortable two-run lead in the Bronx. In addition to becoming too pull happy a year ago, Valencia’s weakness against right-handed pitching was also exposed. On the first pitch from the right-handed reliever Corey Wade – a slider running away from the zone, no less – Valencia stayed back and laced the ball into the right-center field gap, scoring Ryan Doumit from first and gave the Twins some more breathing room. All in all, it was certainly a confidence building win for the Minnesota Twins and has set a good tone for the rest of the four game series in New York.

The 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees on Monday night was one that helped knock the collective monkey off of their backs for the Minnesota Twins. After all, Yankee Stadium – be it the original or this new theme park – has long given the Twins fits. Individually, too, Twins players shrugged off the load that had been weighing them down to lead to the third win of the season. Carl Pavano, who became a pariah in the five boroughs after his disabled tenure with the Yankees, proved that he’s advanced beyond simply being a punch line. Sure, he allowed two back-to-back home runs to start the game and quickly coughed up the 2-0 lead the Twins provided him, yet he remained calm and hit his spots – specifically that spot two-and-a-half inches off of the plate that umpire Gerry Davis was giving him. He worked in a devastating change-up that he buried on his opponents, getting them to miss on seven of the 26 he threw. After a series against Texas in which he went 1-for-12 with five strikeouts, people were starting to get restless about Justin Morneau’s recovery. Offensively, he looked overmatched and, as Nick Nelson examined, his plate discipline numbers were the truly worrisome part. A year ago, one of Morneau’s biggest problems was pulling open off the pitch and leaving the outer half of the plate wide open for opposing pitchers. Nevertheless, positioned at first base tonight, Morneau appeared much more dialed in following his first at bat. In his third trip to the plate, Morneau timed a Freddy Garcia “fastball” perfectly and launched a shot into the Yankees’ bullpen area. After the game, Morneau told FSN’s Robby Incmikoski that following his first plate appearance of the night, he told himself to consciously wait back. Coming into Monday night’s game, Joe Mauer was holding a ground ball rate over 60%. That tape measure shot he sent into the stands against the Angels seemed like a distance memory as the Rangers kept the Twins catcher from doing much elevating. He finished the last series going 2-for-10 while grounding into two double plays – bringing his season total of twin killings to MLB-leading four. Answering some of his critics, Mauer smacked a double to left in the first and followed that up with a double to right in the fifth inning. Danny Valencia, who had been chastised by his manager in 2011 for failing to take the ball the other way, came up in the eighth inning with the Twins holding a decent but never comfortable two-run lead in the Bronx. In addition to becoming too pull happy a year ago, Valencia’s weakness against right-handed pitching was also exposed. On the first pitch from the right-handed reliever Corey Wade – a slider running away from the zone, no less – Valencia stayed back and laced the ball into the right-center field gap, scoring Ryan Doumit from first and gave the Twins some more breathing room. All in all, it was certainly a confidence building win for the Minnesota Twins and has set a good tone for the rest of the four game series in New York.

Just two seasons into Target Field’s existence and already the ballpark’s environment had drawn as much consternation from hitters as an expanded strike zone or moving the mound ten feet closer to the plate. Departing Twins took shots at the venue as they left the team, suggesting that the way the field plays makes players alter their swings to avoid long fly outs to the gaps. Rather than continuing to jam square pegs into a round hole, the Twins made an offseason signing that is proving early on that if you select the right talent, Target Field can be porous. With a sampling of two seasons, the home run chart at Target Field showed that the easiest way to leave the field of play was to yank one down the left field line - and that’s where Josh Willingham comes in. Because of his high pull tendencies and Target Field’s favorable environment to right-handed pull hitters, this winter’s acquisition had all the signs that it could be successful. Just three games into the first homestand of the year, Willingham has reminded fans why the team named the third deck section of left field the “Home Run Porch” by pulverizing the Rawlings deep into the stands and narrowly missing a fourth by several feet on Monday. In concert with Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, both of whom homered on Thursday, the Twins now have five home runs at home. That is downright a derby contest compared to last season in which fans had to wait until the twelfth home game of the season to be treated to the fifth Twins home run. Let’s take a closer look as to why Willingham has been such a solid power source. As I wrote back in December, what makes him such a dangerous hitter is that he “draws his power from a stiff front leg which helps with leverage and keeps his hands inside as his back arm stays close to his body at a little over a 90 degree angle – otherwise known as the “Power L” position. This combination, plus his natural strength, has led to a home run every 18.6 at bats since 2009.” Here is an example of this in his home run off of Jared Weaver on Wednesday night. What I failed to mention back then, is the explosive hip action he has when he uncorks. Take note of the stiff front leg and the way his trailing arm stays tucked in. Notice, also, that the point of impact is well out in front of his body resulting in him pulling the ball: [ATTACH=CONFIG]610[/ATTACH] Next is an almost identical position for his home run off of Kevin Jepsen. Observe the same front leg, arm tucked in and the impact made out in front of his body: [ATTACH=CONFIG]611[/ATTACH] Because of this approach, Willingham has had great success when being pitched middle-in: [ATTACH=CONFIG]612[/ATTACH]Due to his early season success, one has to believe that the Rangers advanced scouts are filing reports that say “PITCH HIM AWAY! AWAY! AWAY!” in big bold letters and underlined. After all, Texas can neutralize him in this weekend’s series by forcing him to use the large part of the park rather than directing the ball towards the porch in left. It is impossible to think that his pace will continue throughout the season, but pitchers do make mistakes – like Jepsen did when he tried to hit the outer-half the zone on Thursday only to have it stay over the middle – and Willingham appears to be a hitter who takes advantage of such mistakes. While this season still needs to play out, as of right now, it appears that the Twins front office has made one home run of a signing.

On Monday against the Angels, Nick Blackburn, despite taking the loss in a 5-1 contest, provided the team with some assurance that he may be able to outperform the lowly expectations that have been outlined for him based on his track record the last two years. What has been the most impressive about his 2012 debut was his ability to miss bats. After all, at an 89.9% rate over the past two seasons, he has allowed more contact than any other qualified starting pitcher. It has been like his pitches are heat-seeking bat finders. However, with a healed elbow along with some minor modifications to his mechanical approach, Blackburn has seemingly turned a corner. This spring, the previously highly mashable right-hander held opponents to a 73% contact rate, says 1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey, a huge difference from his career rate. That trend continued into the home opener as Blackburn managed to fend off bats, obtaining a swing-and-miss on 7.1% of the total offerings. What’s more is his fastball, previously a strong candidate to get annihilated, actually missed six bats out of the 30 thrown on the cold April afternoon. Now, that certainly is not Liriano-like but for someone who has spent the past two years at the 4% mark, this is a significant step in the right direction. Let’s take a peek at his changes and see what, if anything, this may have done to improve his game and if this output might continue. At the beginning of March, Pioneer Press columnist Tom Powers noted that Blackburn had made two noteworthy changes to his approach: (1) shifting over to the third base side of the rubber and (2) switching to a higher, over-the-top arm angle. The first change is very apparent. In the first image, you see that Blackburn has started on the first base side of the rubber. In the ensuing shot, he has moved his starting position to the third base side. By his account, this is now enabling him to pound his fastball on the inner-half of the zone better to right-handed opponents. [ATTACH=CONFIG]578[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]579[/ATTACH] The second change, his arm angle, did not seem to stick with him through spring camp. In his televised spring training start against the Yankees, Nick Blackburn was seemingly throwing from a more over-the-top type arm angle versus his standard three-quarters release that we have been accustom to. Contrary to what was relayed this spring, in his first start of the season, Blackburn was actually throwing at a lowered release point this season than he did the previous one. The top image (from 2011) shows a slightly more tilted (read: higher) release angle than the second image (2012): [ATTACH=CONFIG]580[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]581[/ATTACH] Furthermore, the Target Field pitch f/x camera system concurs that, in addition to having his release point shift over several inches towards the right-handed batter’s box, it has also dropped a few inches as well: [ATTACH=CONFIG]582[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]583[/ATTACH] These changes have allowed Blackburn to hammer righties down and in, getting under their swing and avoiding the meaty part of the zone. According to Fangraphs.com’s heat maps chart, we see that on Monday (below), Blackburn pounded the inner-half of the plate with his two-seamer whereas the prior season (above), the majority of those pitchers were finishing out over the plate: [ATTACH=CONFIG]584[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]585[/ATTACH] Essentially, his off-season alterations have led to more pitching arm side movement of his two-seamer which dropping significantly as well. It’s easy to see with this type of spotting why Blackburn was able to generate an increase in his swing-and-misses and, not to mention, a decent uptick in ground ball production (a near 70% rate against Los Angeles). Of course, we have seen the feast-or-famine Blackburn act before, so it’s hard to say if he can continue this output over the duration of the season. Nevertheless, based on these findings, if he can maintain a swing-and-miss rate around 7% while keeping that ground ball rate at or above 60%, he could be in line for a much needed bounce back season.

The Twins recently announced that Target Field would be a smoke-free facility starting in 2012. Apparently, they were not referencing tobacco products but rather Carl Pavano’s fastball. Minnesota’s inning-eating stalwart of the past several seasons entered Opening Day in Baltimore and was not impressing any radar gun enthusiasts by tossing his fastball a touch over 85 miles an hour. On Saturday, Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan reported that there were some organizational staffers were “alarmed” at this development. [ATTACH=CONFIG]557[/ATTACH] At Baseball Prospectus, former analyst and current Houston Astros’ staffer Mike Fast found that pitchers’ velocity is a bell curve over the course of the season: “Fastball speed for an average major-league pitcher starts at its lowest point in early April, rises by about 1.0-1.5 mph to a peak in the month of July, and declines gradually thereafter. These trends apply similarly to starting pitchers and relief pitchers.” As you can see from the chart above, like Fast’s research which showed velocity increased throughout the season, Pavano also had a gradual climb in velocity as the season progressed. In 2009 and 2010, he added roughly 2 miles an hour to his fastball. Last year, however, he was only able to dial up his heat 0.2 miles an hour. Meanwhile, this year, he has begun at his lowest starting point in the past four years. At 36 years old and coming off of two straight seasons of throwing over 222 innings -- not to mention a failure to ratchet up his fastball in 2011 like he did in 2009 and 2010 -- this may be an early indication that he could be wearing down indefinitely. To be fair, Pavano, who has never been a hard thrower even in the early stages of his career, has always relied on his fastball’s command and movement over power. Because of its pedestrian nature in comparison to the rest of the league, when he misses his spots over the plate opponents have been able to lacerate his fastball (such as what happened when Nick Markakis launched a two-run home run off of him in the first inning of Friday’s contest). For instance, in 2009, the year in which the Twins traded for him at the waiver deadline, Pavano’s fastball was valued at -23.8 runs below average by Fangraphs.com – the worst rate in baseball among qualified starters. The following year it came in at -7.2, a fair improvement but still near the bottom of the league. Last season his fastball finished at -25.6, second only to A.J. Burnett’s -34. Despite all of that, Pavano has managed to remain a pitcher who has turned in consecutive seasons of 3 wins above replacement since 2009. What allowed him to succeed despite the sheer obliteration of his heater was guile – throwing a decent combination of a slider and changeup that incited plenty of opponents to expand the strike zone and swing at less than favorable pitches. Between 2009 and 2011, he was able to get hitters to swing at 34.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches – the second-highest amount in baseball. In short, opponents were less likely to square up on a ball that is off the plate leading to more outs for Pavano in spite of chucking a lackluster fastball. But here’s another factor that should be considered as his velocity declines: the differential between his fastball and his off-speed pitches is eroding. Along with his command and movement, the secondary pitches provided Pavano with a change of speed that disrupted the opposition’s timing. Baseball researcher Dave Allen discovered that the optimal differential between a fastball and a changeup to be effective is between 5% and 12%. In essence, anything below 5% and anything above 12% gives the hitter a better read on the pitch. For Pavano, in 2009 and 2010, he had an approximate nine mile per hour differential between his fastball and his changeup. This resulted in differentials of 10.2% in ‘09 and 9.4% in ’10. Last season, he posted a differential of 8.8%, still within the sweet spot Allen described but was definitely trending downward as his fastball’s velocity decreased. In just his one start, he held a differential of 4.5% slightly below the threshold for effectiveness. In theory, if Pavano continues to throw his fastball and changeup in this range, he will lose the ability to fool hitters with the off-speed stuff. Yes, it is just one outing, and his first of the year at that, but there are some signs which suggest Pavano may be in line for a hard season if he is unable to add some MPHs to his fastball.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]548[/ATTACH]Lily Rothman of Slate.com recently wrote a very interesting piece on the treatment of minor league baseball players and their plight to make ends meet. Rothman noted that these “hidden underclass of workers” make a salary comprising of $1,100 a month and receive that pay for only half the year. As opposed to their major league brethren, minor leaguers have little or no protection as a working class. There have been some players within the system who have championed for some labor changes. According to the article: The last player to talk seriously about minor-league unionization was Garrett Broshuis. In 2006, Broshuis was playing for the Connecticut Defenders, the AA affiliate of the San Francisco Giants. The pitcher, who was sharing an apartment with some teammates in a bad neighborhood in Norwich, Conn., got radicalized after an upstairs toilet clogged and flooded the place. “That was kind of the moment where I realized this isn’t really fair,” he remembers. “It’s not fair that I’m playing in front of seven or 8,000 people each night and making pennies.” Broshuis, who is a good follow on Twitter, tried to make some inroads with his fellow minor leaguers and convince them that unionizing was in their best interest. Nothing came of it. Things are even worse for the independent leaguers who do not have the incentive of being within a major league team’s system, you get little pay and no assurance that you may have a chance of reaching the next level: But there will always be players like Tom Zebroski, a 45th-round draft pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2010. As a first-year player, he made $1,100 a month before taxes, and his bonus wasn’t any bigger. Zebroski had promised himself he would never play in an independent league, with no direct route to the big leagues and even less money than you get in the minors. But when he got released by the Royals last year, Zebroski changed his mind. He decided to work in the offseason to save up for the chance to have a chance. “It's one of those things that, if you give it up before you're ready to, you'll be questioning yourself,” he says. “Like, what if I'd done this, what if I'd done that, what if I'd given it one more year?” He now plays for the Traverse City Beach Bums in the Frontier League, where the salary cap is $75,000 per team and the minimum salary is $600 a month. Books like Dirk Hayhurst’s Bullpen Gospels and Out Of My League in addition to Matt McCarthy’s Odd Man Out provide inside glimpses to the world of a minor leaguer. Most of us consider these players extremely fortunate to be doing what they do for a living but forget that because of the lack of pay, they are often living three deep in a one bedroom apartment and sustaining off of peanut butter sandwiches. Here at Twins Daily, we are lucky to have a consortium of minor league players who have provided us a look into their on-field experience (and a bit of the off-field summertime work) but I think it would be interesting to hear about the day-to-day life of a minor leaguer away from the ballpark. Is it really as grim as Rothman portrays it, or is it similar to a college experience where you are eating wish sandwiches (you know, “boy I wish this Ramen was a sandwich”) and living off of well short of $1,000 a month that minor leaguers make? It sounded like squalid living reflecting back on it now but at the time you just rolled with the punches. Perhaps that is how minor league life is as well. Either way, the Slate.com article is an interesting read and it is a topic worth mulling over.

On Thursday, Ron Gardenhire announced his opening day lineup. Giving it the once over, you will notice that the lineup is filled with “professional” hitters, a start contrast to the motley crew that the manager was forced to field at the end of last year. Headlining names like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span have returned. It is deep enough that Chris Parmelee, who hit in the heart of the order in September, is batting eighth. With the offseason additions of Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll, there is optimism that this offense will not finish at the bottom of the league in runs scored. [ATTACH=CONFIG]523[/ATTACH]Of course, while the offense is providing some warm fuzzies, it’s the pitching staff that is the real concern. And it’s already off to an ominous start. Scott Baker, in efforts to rehab an arm issue he experienced this spring, made a start for the Ft Myers Miracle yesterday. It did not go well. Just 11 pitches into the outing, he was pulled, stating he was unable to get loose. The News-Press’s David Dorsey tweeted that Miracle manager Jake Mauer said “the radar guns were 80 to 84 or whatever the heck it was. He wasn’t comfortable at all.” There is no clarity as to what is actually wrong with Baker, either. Earlier in the day, general manager Terry Ryan was on KFAN with Dan Barreiro and said, of Baker, “the only concern I have is that he’s not injured. There’s nothing wrong; we’ve done all the test and so forth.” Baker’s situation is starting to sound somewhat similar to Glen Perkins’ plight in 2010. That season, Perkins complained about shoulder pain which sidelined him for an extended period of time and drew the ire of Twins officials who were “privately questioning his pain tolerance and willingness to compete.” As we know, Perkins rebounded swimmingly, assuming the set-up man’s position in the bullpen and earning himself a three-year deal after a terrific 2011 season. Baker, meanwhile, has now had multiple seasons now end with arm issues and this one, much like Perkins in 2010, does not have a clear diagnosis. Is he now receiving the Perkins treatment from the team’s inner circle? In August of last year, Baker headed for the disabled list, saying that he noticed a “lack of velocity and less sharpness in his breaking pitches.” Back then he was still hitting the upper-80s despite the discomfort. This spring, the radar gun has said he has been at 86 miles per hour and below. As someone who lives up in the zone and allows a high percentage of fly balls, the drop in velocity would be fuel to the fire. It’s frustrating, as Ryan told Barreiro, because despite throwing just over 130 innings last year, Baker was undoubtedly the rotation’s lone bright spot through the first half of the season. He was a breath of fresh air as a strikeout pitcher (whiffing 22.5% of batters faced) in a sea of contact artists (Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn) and zone avoiders (Francisco Liriano). Now it appears there is no timeline in which Baker will recover in the near future. His absence will also further highlight the Twins lack of depth in the system when it comes to the starting rotation. Liam Hendriks, who pitched decently in September, will assume his spot however, if any other injuries crop up, there is little left in the farm system to replace them. There are no Matt Garzas, Kevin Sloweys or Francisco Lirianos waiting in the wings. And what of the bullpen? A year ago, the reinforcements blew 20 save opportunities and were responsible for 28 losses (the most in the American League) while allowing 4.96 runs per game (the second most in the AL). Have the Twins improved themselves in this area? Matt Capps’ spring - following up a tumultuous 2011 season - has not reassured fans much that he’s turned things around. Likewise, the one pitcher who may have added a dominating force to last year’s group, Joel Zumaya, lasted 13 spring pitches. The Twins have also lost Joe Nathan and have not replaced him with a similar right-handed reliever. This doesn’t inspire much confidence, does it? Well, you are not alone in that sentiment. Ryan was also equally as uncertain by the unit he put together. “The biggest question is the bullpen,” said Ryan Thursday afternoon over the airwaves. “The bullpen has a bunch of question marks…I’m worried about the bullpen just like you are.” At the very least, the honesty is refreshing. It’s not like the front office is trying to feed us a spoon full of sugar to help the medicine go do. The reality is this pitching staff may very well leave a bitter taste.

While many fans will be focusing their attention on the more mainstream topics such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s health, Denard Span’s lingering concussion effects and Francisco Liriano’s resurgence, here are five things you can point out to your buddies as you watch games this month to make you seem like a genuine hipster seamhead: (1) Nick Blackburn’s adjustments and repertoire. Much has been made this spring about Blackburn’s shift on the rubber from the first base side to the middle. While this may help him hit a few spots with his sinking fastball that he was not afforded from a few inches to the left, what you should really watch for is his new “over-the-top” arm action that he has transitioned towards. In addition to his health, this might be the biggest attribute for a rebound season in 2012. Why would this have anything influence? A more “over-the-top” arm action would translate into a higher release point and, much like I described with Kyle Waldrop, the higher release point combined with good sink gives hitters less of the ball to hit through the hitting zone and should lead to more ground balls and missed bats. Blackburn’s spring numbers has been impressive, for whatever emphasis you want to put on them. In 17 innings, he’s racked up a decent 12/4 K/BB ratio while allowing just four runs. Perhaps more importantly than those numbers was the pitching work behind them. In addition to getting gobs of grounders according to Phil Mackey’s statistics Blackburn held opponents to a 73% contact rate in Grapefruit League play, a rate that is significantly better than his regular season performance (he has a 88.4% contact rate). The question is, has his healthy arm allowed him to throw his slider again - a pitch he hasn’t thrown with regularly or effectiveness since 2009 - thereby incited more swing and misses this spring? Or has the new arm angle resulted in added movement? Is there some other factor in play? Blackburn’s new release point was on display during this spring’s Yankees broadcast. Unfortunately, MLB.tv did not archive the game in order to properly dissect and compare it to his previous motion. On the other hand, Blackburn is scheduled to pitch on April 9th at the home opener so there will be ample opportunity to begin examining the changes in both his arm action through the video as well as the movement results through pitch f/x system. (2) Alexi Casilla’s left-side leg kick. A week ago I wrote that Twins fans may be surprised at what Casilla may be capable of offensively. This was based on the highly volatile offseason league performance that provides little confidence in basing any conclusion off of: He finished the spring with a .300 average in a little under 50 plate appearances and, surprise!, an ailing hamstring that kept him out of play for the final games of the warm-up circuit. Despite the injury, he’s scheduled to be ready by opening weekend. One of the reasons I cling to some hope for Casilla was his emergence last year. After spending most of 2010 and 2011 performing like the slap-hitting second baseman we’ve come to expect, he made some adjustments to his left-handed swing which had the ball jumping off his bat. From May 1 onward, Casilla hit an impressive .281/.344/.408 in just shy of 300 plate appearances. Needless to say, the post-May 1 Casilla would be a great addition to the Twins lineup. The question is will he show up? Watch Casilla from the left-side of the plate. If he is stepping toward the pitcher prior to the pitch being thrown, he’s using a high-contact but low-impact type of swing that does not engage the lower half. If he is striding after the pitch is thrown, as he did post-May 1 last season, that’s a much more able to produce power (doubles power, let’s not get carried away here) from his legs and hips. (3) Scott Baker’s fastball velocity. After being one of the bright spots in the Twins rotation for half the season last year, because of his barking elbow, Baker will start the 2012 season on the disabled list. Spring has not been kind to him. His fastball’s velocity, the best pitch in his repertoire, had abandoned him, residing at 85-88 miles an hour in camp. That’s a range that has been well-below Baker’s standard average velocity in-season. Dating back to 2007, there were just a handful of outings in which the right-hander fell below the 90 mile per hour mark, most, I suspect, were injury related. [ATTACH=CONFIG]494[/ATTACH] Meanwhile, in 2010, we witnessed what happens when he was unable to control his fastball and he was splattered across the diamond. Perhaps because of both location and the velocity, Baker was pummeled in his limited amount of work this spring – allowing seven hits, two for home runs, while striking out just one. This is disheartening for multiple reasons but biggest is that the promise he flashed in 2011 would be a welcomed addition to this rotation. Baker will make a start on Thursday with the Ft Myers Miracle and, if all goes well, he will be set to rejoin the team. If he makes it back to Minnesota this month, be sure to watch both the radar gun readings as well as where the catcher’s target is and where his fastball ends up. (4) Ryan Doumit’s plate discipline. Earlier this week I documented Doumit’s plate discipline improvements last year in Pittsburgh in conjunction with the increase in walks this spring. Obviously, this may be nothing more than a small sample size occurrence however, keep an eye on his at bats in April. Like Doumit, former Twin Jason Kubel had a similar experience last spring and while it did not translate into more walks during the regular season, Kubel came out and had a torrid first month. In his first 102 plate appearances, Kubel hit .351/.392/.511 with nine doubles and two home runs. Clearly, Kubel was dialed in and recognized what was “his pitch.” Even if his spring walks do not manifest into regular season walks, the meaningless free passes may be a sign that Doumit is seeing the ball well and laying off of breaking balls, off-the-plate fastballs and other trickery from the pitchers. The telling point will be if he is driving the ones that he chooses to swing at. (5) Matt Capps’ new pitch [ATTACH=CONFIG]495[/ATTACH]While watching him warm up a week ago Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, a stadium which allows fans to saddle up next to the bullpen and view the pitcher’s getting loose from an amazing vantage point, I noticed Capps was tossing a few split-finger fastballs - an offering that was not among his regular arsenal. He’d let a few go and then confer with the bullpen coach about release or movement or whatever. Monitoring from above the pitcher’s mound, you could see that these pitches were moving fairly well down and in to right-handed hitters, a stark difference in comparison to his fastball and slider. For the most part, Capps has been a pitcher who has labored up in the zone. With mostly a fastball-slider combination and a forearm injury to boot, he struggled to (1) get hitters to miss (his swinging strike rate dropped from above 9% to 6% in 2011) and (2) getting ground balls (his ground ball rate plummeted from 50% to 40%). When he was on the mound, the bats were loud. The hope is that the splitty will provide a bit of speed deception as well as enough movement to entice a few more swing and misses. Unfortunately, new pitches are not always a magic elixir for what ails you. A year ago, Jose Mijares and the coaching staff raved about his new two-seamed fastball that was supposedly going to help him battled right-handed hitters better. That did not pan out so well for the newly minted Kansas City Royal. Most spring on-lookers have agreed that opponents have continued to make noise off of Capps, including nailing four home runs off of him. This may be a byproduct of him “trying new things” out there - including incorporating his splitty – but, if this continues into April, the more ominous question is if his arm is 100%. Watch for more two-strike splitters from Capps this April. The only impediment is if hitters continue to obliterate the ball before he gets to two strikes.

Thanks for the boob...er...Thome pic. Glad to see those are still around. Gotta agree with Lein, that's a circle change - for whatever reason he tucks his pinky in.