Parker Hageman

The 2011 season was quite a mess for Francisco Liriano. Coming off the solid 2010 season, expectations had been high for the lefty and instead of moving forward he regressed heavily, turning in one of the worst seasons among qualified starters. Command-wise, his 12.7% walk rate was the highest among pitchers with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. According to a recent John Shipley article at the PiPress, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson offered up a cure for what he believes ails Liriano: This is an interesting assessment because this is not the first time that getting Liriano to pitch more “downhill” as been brought up. Following his eight-inning, nine strikeout performance against the Texas Rangers on June 12 of last year, the MLB Network crew took the opportunity to dissect the difference between the early season Liriano – the one who had gone 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA with a 21/27 K/BB ratio in 35.2 innings combined in his first seven starts – to the one who had just obliterated the future AL Champions. What MLB analyst Mitch Williams noted was that Liriano had a tendency of not “staying behind his head”. The former closer described this as rushing throw his delivery and that he would peel off towards the third base line with his momentum – just like Anderson said. This, noted Williams, resulted in a decrease in control. Williams and his on-screen partner Dan Plesac also highlighted a key difference between his June 12 domination and a clip from a 2010 start against Baltimore: Liriano’s arm angle. Here you see the screenshot and notice the tilt variation between the still on the left (from 2010) to the one on the right (2011). [ATTACH=CONFIG]164[/ATTACH] Williams said that Liriano’s 2011 angle was “much better” than his 2010 one and that gave him the ability to pitch “downhill.” Fangraphs.com’s Pitch F/X charts confirm that his arm was much more vertical on that day versus that of his 2010 outing against the Orioles: [ATTACH=CONFIG]165[/ATTACH] Release point vs Rangers 2011 [ATTACH=CONFIG]166[/ATTACH]Release point vs Orioles 2010 As we know by now, Liriano’s outing against Texas was not the pivotal turnaround moment that most hoped for (or that MLB Network predicted). Instead, he sputtered throughout the remainder of the season and walked 12% of batters faced. At some point during the early portion of the season, according to a source with the team, the Twins used visual aids supplied by the team’s videographer to show the left-hander how chaotic and random his release points had been at the season’s onset. Supposedly, they were working on getting Liriano to raise his release point. As Anderson mentioned to reporters, he feels that if Liriano stays “tall”, he will be able to create a better downward plane. Many people interpreted the Twins staff’s tinkering with Liriano in 2011 as a way to convert the strikeout pitcher into a finesse-type who pitches to contact. To which Anderson denies: Without question, Liriano has some inconsistent mechanics - he pulls off towards third, he short arms at times, his rushes through his delivery, he throws from various slots, etc – and you can understand why Rick Anderson is trying to iron him out. Anderson claims that the higher release point will get him to throw “downhill” more. Mitch Williams echoed that sentiment by saying the downward plane leads to a “fastball that explodes in the last four-to-five feet” and gets more drop on the slider. However, and with no disrespect to Mr. Anderson or Mr. Williams, but thus far the higher release point has seemingly done squat for Liriano. I understand that Rick Anderson has done wonders with plenty of pitchers but it is possible that what he describes as “his way” may not be the optimum position for Liriano. In 2010, according to pitch f/x charts Liriano’s release point appeared to be somewhere between 10 and 11 o’clock (a bit lower) while this past season he moved it up closer to 12 (a bit higher). In 2010, his fastball command was far superior and his slider showed more bite. This past season his exercised some of the worst command of a fastball among all qualified starters. Based on that alone, one may consider reverting back to the 2010 mechanics if, for nothing else, to rekindle that flame. In April of last season, I took a quick look at the difference between the 2010 and 2011 Liriano deliveries and found that in 2011 he was remaining tall (much like the Twins are encouraging him to do) but his follow-through lacked the same downward action that he showed in 2010. According to pitch f/x charts, it appeared that staying tall seemed to elevate his fastball. At that time, I figured the staff would try to get him to emulate his 2010 mechanics but it sounds like I was wrong. It is curious to me that instead of attempting to re-create the environment that propelled Liriano towards his second best season of his career, Anderson has been trying to mold him into pitching “his way” and throwing it “straight up” - a manner in which Liriano has struggled.

La Valle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system.

La Valle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system.

Without having seen Megan's video, I'm guessing she's a Tampa-resident that has been entrenched as Yankee territory since at least the mid-70s. Many of the residents in Tampa have thrown their allegiance to the Yankees particularly since they were the only game in town for a long while. Still...yucky.

Without a doubt, there will be plenty of storylines to monitor during spring training this year. One of the bigger ones that you should keep an eye on in Fort Myers is Francisco Liriano’s fastball. Injuries took him out of the 2011 season but it was clear that the southpaw was not the same pitcher as he was the season before. Between a decrease in velocity, an inability to locate his fastball and regularly falling behind his opponents, Liriano posted a career high in walks (75) and his second-worst ERA of his career (5.09). Perhaps a bit predictably based upon his delivery and past history, he succumbed to injuries midway through last season and missed a significant amount of time. Suddenly, not signing Liriano to a long-term deal became one of Bill Smith’s finest moves as a GM. For his part, Liriano, who was admonished for not following through with offseason workouts before last season, opted to participate in winter ball – the same platform that helped him regain his form two seasons ago. Unfortunately, the results were not quite as enticing this year as they were in the past. He threw 24.2 innings and posted a 25/16 K/BB ratio in winter ball. This outcome was a distant cry from his 2009 winter league performance in which he reintroduced himself to baseball as one of the more filthy pitchers in baseball. That year in 20 innings Liriano posted a 30/5 K/BB ratio on his way to becoming one of the Twins more dominating starters in the 2010 regular season. Admittedly, each pitch thrown between November and April means very little in the grand scheme yet the signs are not wholly positive at this juncture. What can Liriano do to become the pitcher the Twins so desperately need in 2012? There’s no question that he still has the nasty slider that can catapult him towards being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, however, as I detailed following Liriano’s first outing this offseason in the Dominican, the main question is whether he can command his fastball. According to BrooksBaseball.net’s pitch f/x data, Liriano’s fastball was vastly different from the 2010 predecessor: [TABLE] [TD=colspan: 4, align: center]Liriano’s Fastballs (2010 vs 2011)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]MPH[/TD] [TD=align: center]Called Strike[/TD] [TD=align: center]Whiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.6%[/TD] [TD=align: center]15.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]13.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]10.8%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]14.7%[/TD] [TD=align: center]12.3%[/TD] [/TABLE] In addition to the decrease in velocity, notice the sharp decline in the amount of called strikes with his two-seamed fastball. This is the pitch he uses most often against right-handed opponents. This may explain why his walk rate when facing righties jumped from 8.5% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2011. Having scouted a couple of Liriano’s outings in the Dominican, you can see that he was still struggling to place the pitch in the Caribbean – specifically his two-seamed fastball against right-handers. Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have little in their rotation of being an elite pitcher. In order to reach that echelon which the team so desperately needs, Liriano, besides being healthy, needs to see an improved fastball in 2012.

Without a doubt, there will be plenty of storylines to monitor during spring training this year. One of the bigger ones that you should keep an eye on in Fort Myers is Francisco Liriano’s fastball. Injuries took him out of the 2011 season but it was clear that the southpaw was not the same pitcher as he was the season before. Between a decrease in velocity, an inability to locate his fastball and regularly falling behind his opponents, Liriano posted a career high in walks (75) and his second-worst ERA of his career (5.09). Perhaps a bit predictably based upon his delivery and past history, he succumbed to injuries midway through last season and missed a significant amount of time. Suddenly, not signing Liriano to a long-term deal became one of Bill Smith’s finest moves as a GM. For his part, Liriano, who was admonished for not following through with offseason workouts before last season, opted to participate in winter ball – the same platform that helped him regain his form two seasons ago. Unfortunately, the results were not quite as enticing this year as they were in the past. He threw 24.2 innings and posted a 25/16 K/BB ratio in winter ball. This outcome was a distant cry from his 2009 winter league performance in which he reintroduced himself to baseball as one of the more filthy pitchers in baseball. That year in 20 innings Liriano posted a 30/5 K/BB ratio on his way to becoming one of the Twins more dominating starters in the 2010 regular season. Admittedly, each pitch thrown between November and April means very little in the grand scheme yet the signs are not wholly positive at this juncture. What can Liriano do to become the pitcher the Twins so desperately need in 2012? There’s no question that he still has the nasty slider that can catapult him towards being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, however, as I detailed following Liriano’s first outing this offseason in the Dominican, the main question is whether he can command his fastball. According to BrooksBaseball.net’s pitch f/x data, Liriano’s fastball was vastly different from the 2010 predecessor: [TABLE] [TD=colspan: 4, align: center]Liriano’s Fastballs (2010 vs 2011)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]MPH[/TD] [TD=align: center]Called Strike[/TD] [TD=align: center]Whiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.6%[/TD] [TD=align: center]15.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]13.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]10.8%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]14.7%[/TD] [TD=align: center]12.3%[/TD] [/TABLE] In addition to the decrease in velocity, notice the sharp decline in the amount of called strikes with his two-seamed fastball. This is the pitch he uses most often against right-handed opponents. This may explain why his walk rate when facing righties jumped from 8.5% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2011. Having scouted a couple of Liriano’s outings in the Dominican, you can see that he was still struggling to place the pitch in the Caribbean – specifically his two-seamed fastball against right-handers. Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have little in their rotation of being an elite pitcher. In order to reach that echelon which the team so desperately needs, Liriano, besides being healthy, needs to see an improved fastball in 2012.

Hitting coach Joe Vavra recently shared some ideas behind what was causing the drought at the plate with the Pioneer Press’s Tom Powers. Plenty of factors played into the team’s offensive ineptitude but for those who did make it to the plate, Vavra felt that the approach was fundamentally lacking: Despite some fans objections to the contrary, Joe Vavra comes off as a smart, intelligent and process-oriented hitting coach. I have personally never had the opportunity to meet with him however in interviews and articles about him, he comes off as someone who has a keen understanding of the art and science of hitting. After all, as stated in this column and in previous interviews, he has a history of checking data to assist in his techniques and teachings – and advanced viewpoint coming from a position that has historically been of the “see ball, hit ball, spit chew, little bingo, how now brown cow” ilk. In that particular piece, Vavra does not outright say what constitutes “struggling” or rather which metric he uses to gauge that, however, he cited batting average a number of times. Because pull-hitting often takes a toll on a player’s average, you can see why the Twins would want to discourage this practice. Using more of the field is an indication that a hitter is able to handle more pitches in more zones. For example, if a right-handed hitter gets too pull-happy and attempts to turn on a pitch on the outer-half, odds are they will be pulling something towards the shortstop rather than “going with the pitch” to right field. In theory, opposing teams will recognize this and attack the outer-half more which will incite a player to turn-over on the pitch more often and drag down his batting average. This more or less seems to be what Vavra is saying happened to the 2011 squad, particularly the young right-handed hitters. Given that the Twins cycled through a greater number of younger hitters through the lineup that hit from the right side (Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Drew Butera, Joe Benson, etc) Vavra’s theory makes sense. Not surprising, the data indicates that the right-handers turned on 29.9% of their balls in play – a sizeable jump from the 24.3% pull rate in 2010. As such, righties hit .237 as a group, their lowest in the past three seasons: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_hKDcxyuj2I/TzyTeNq-oVI/AAAAAAAAAT0/cYEjF4OJWXA/s1600/RHB_Pulling.jpg Now, the batted ball data shows the outcome but it clearly does not show intent. That is something that hitting coaches can detect and video can reveal a bit more on what a hitter was trying to do when being pitched away. While a near 30% pull rate is high, there may be more outer-half pitches that hitters attempted to pull but directed them towards center instead of right field. What data might show some of that is the precipitous drop in using the opposite field successfully over the past three years. The idea is that if a hitter is focused on going oppo, the result should be better: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NLvtY0KW4pI/TzyTkrDc0iI/AAAAAAAAAT8/_MP1V7hKNUw/s1600/RHB_Oppo.jpg As you can glean, the 2011 Twins were considerably less successful at going the opposite direction than their predecessors. If the 2011 lineup was indeed less focused on driving shots to right field, it is reflective in those splits. So, redirecting those players who may have grown too pull-happy like Trevor Plouffe or Danny Valencia back towards the big part of the field may help bolster their batting average but what of the power? As I’ve written about extensively here, Target Field plays more favorably for pull hitters. This offseason, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit were added to the lineup and both hitters showed clear pull tendencies over their careers. In Willingham’s case, he moved to Oakland and grew increasingly pull-happy to combat the spacious park. Although he set a career high in home runs (29) that came at the expense of over 20 batting average points and a significant amount of on-base numbers. If the team wants the home runs added to the repertoire, they should encourage Willingham to keep the same approach he had as an Athletic. Not long ago, the Twins tinkered with Hardy’s approach at the plate, suggesting he was getting too pull-happy. Hardy had incorporated the opposite-field mentality to his approach which the Orioles hitting coach told him to forget. Not only did Hardy’s batting average remain at a high level after going back to being a pull hitter, he also jacked 30 home runs. Will Vavra allow Willingham and Doumit to retain their approaches? Of course it is up to the individual but it sounds as if Vavra had his way, it sounds like he would discourage the pair from this method. According to Tom Powers’ column, the Pioneer Press scribe posited the question if power hitters should try “to yank the ball” to which Vavra replied “I’d challenge them on that”. The reasoning behind Vavra’s contention was never clarified but I would speculate that it has to do with what amounts to a batting average drain. Clearly, talent certainly played a key factor in the degeneration of the batting average from the right-side for the Twins but the inexperience and the pull-heavy tendencies also contributed. The old adage “hit it where it’s pitched” applies. Still, pulling the ball is not as big of an enemy to the offense as some would think.

Hitting coach Joe Vavra recently shared some ideas behind what was causing the drought at the plate with the Pioneer Press’s Tom Powers. Plenty of factors played into the team’s offensive ineptitude but for those who did make it to the plate, Vavra felt that the approach was fundamentally lacking: Despite some fans objections to the contrary, Joe Vavra comes off as a smart, intelligent and process-oriented hitting coach. I have personally never had the opportunity to meet with him however in interviews and articles about him, he comes off as someone who has a keen understanding of the art and science of hitting. After all, as stated in this column and in previous interviews, he has a history of checking data to assist in his techniques and teachings – and advanced viewpoint coming from a position that has historically been of the “see ball, hit ball, spit chew, little bingo, how now brown cow” ilk. In that particular piece, Vavra does not outright say what constitutes “struggling” or rather which metric he uses to gauge that, however, he cited batting average a number of times. Because pull-hitting often takes a toll on a player’s average, you can see why the Twins would want to discourage this practice. Using more of the field is an indication that a hitter is able to handle more pitches in more zones. For example, if a right-handed hitter gets too pull-happy and attempts to turn on a pitch on the outer-half, odds are they will be pulling something towards the shortstop rather than “going with the pitch” to right field. In theory, opposing teams will recognize this and attack the outer-half more which will incite a player to turn-over on the pitch more often and drag down his batting average. This more or less seems to be what Vavra is saying happened to the 2011 squad, particularly the young right-handed hitters. Given that the Twins cycled through a greater number of younger hitters through the lineup that hit from the right side (Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Drew Butera, Joe Benson, etc) Vavra’s theory makes sense. Not surprising, the data indicates that the right-handers turned on 29.9% of their balls in play – a sizeable jump from the 24.3% pull rate in 2010. As such, righties hit .237 as a group, their lowest in the past three seasons: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_hKDcxyuj2I/TzyTeNq-oVI/AAAAAAAAAT0/cYEjF4OJWXA/s1600/RHB_Pulling.jpg Now, the batted ball data shows the outcome but it clearly does not show intent. That is something that hitting coaches can detect and video can reveal a bit more on what a hitter was trying to do when being pitched away. While a near 30% pull rate is high, there may be more outer-half pitches that hitters attempted to pull but directed them towards center instead of right field. What data might show some of that is the precipitous drop in using the opposite field successfully over the past three years. The idea is that if a hitter is focused on going oppo, the result should be better: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NLvtY0KW4pI/TzyTkrDc0iI/AAAAAAAAAT8/_MP1V7hKNUw/s1600/RHB_Oppo.jpg As you can glean, the 2011 Twins were considerably less successful at going the opposite direction than their predecessors. If the 2011 lineup was indeed less focused on driving shots to right field, it is reflective in those splits. So, redirecting those players who may have grown too pull-happy like Trevor Plouffe or Danny Valencia back towards the big part of the field may help bolster their batting average but what of the power? As I’ve written about extensively here, Target Field plays more favorably for pull hitters. This offseason, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit were added to the lineup and both hitters showed clear pull tendencies over their careers. In Willingham’s case, he moved to Oakland and grew increasingly pull-happy to combat the spacious park. Although he set a career high in home runs (29) that came at the expense of over 20 batting average points and a significant amount of on-base numbers. If the team wants the home runs added to the repertoire, they should encourage Willingham to keep the same approach he had as an Athletic. Not long ago, the Twins tinkered with Hardy’s approach at the plate, suggesting he was getting too pull-happy. Hardy had incorporated the opposite-field mentality to his approach which the Orioles hitting coach told him to forget. Not only did Hardy’s batting average remain at a high level after going back to being a pull hitter, he also jacked 30 home runs. Will Vavra allow Willingham and Doumit to retain their approaches? Of course it is up to the individual but it sounds as if Vavra had his way, it sounds like he would discourage the pair from this method. According to Tom Powers’ column, the Pioneer Press scribe posited the question if power hitters should try “to yank the ball” to which Vavra replied “I’d challenge them on that”. The reasoning behind Vavra’s contention was never clarified but I would speculate that it has to do with what amounts to a batting average drain. Clearly, talent certainly played a key factor in the degeneration of the batting average from the right-side for the Twins but the inexperience and the pull-heavy tendencies also contributed. The old adage “hit it where it’s pitched” applies. Still, pulling the ball is not as big of an enemy to the offense as some would think.

Each spring fans are entertained by non-news news from the southern camps in Florida relating to how great of shape a player is in, how re-dedicated they are, etc, etc. Early February brings a lot of "I feel great" moments from players who were injured the previous season and, of course, wealthy catcher Joe Mauer is one such player who draws this kind of attention from the media. In January, right around TwinsFest when Mauer made a quick circuit of local appearances, reports spread that the catcher had put on nearly 30 pounds - some of which was weight that needed to be replaced after supposedly losing so much over the course of the 2011 season. Mauer, who has a home in the Ft Myers area, has joined in with some of the early arrivals to get back into game shape. Reporters, milling around for a story, inquired about the added weight to which Mauer said: What may be important to the baseball-side of this quote is that according to the Twins roster, Mauer is listed at 235 pounds - roughly 10-15 pounds from where he is now. Since his marvelous 2009 season in which he slugged 28 home runs in 606 plate appearances, Mauer has tagged just 12 in his last 917 plate appearances dating back to 2010. So putting 10-to-15 pounds of muscle on his 6-foot-5 frame would be a good start towards hitting those 2009-type numbers again. Unfortunately, with the season a little over a month-and-a-half away, adding poundage seems like a tall task given the amount of conditioning and weight-loss players typically encounter in the spring.

Each spring fans are entertained by non-news news from the southern camps in Florida relating to how great of shape a player is in, how re-dedicated they are, etc, etc. Early February brings a lot of "I feel great" moments from players who were injured the previous season and, of course, wealthy catcher Joe Mauer is one such player who draws this kind of attention from the media. In January, right around TwinsFest when Mauer made a quick circuit of local appearances, reports spread that the catcher had put on nearly 30 pounds - some of which was weight that needed to be replaced after supposedly losing so much over the course of the 2011 season. Mauer, who has a home in the Ft Myers area, has joined in with some of the early arrivals to get back into game shape. Reporters, milling around for a story, inquired about the added weight to which Mauer said: What may be important to the baseball-side of this quote is that according to the Twins roster, Mauer is listed at 235 pounds - roughly 10-15 pounds from where he is now. Since his marvelous 2009 season in which he slugged 28 home runs in 606 plate appearances, Mauer has tagged just 12 in his last 917 plate appearances dating back to 2010. So putting 10-to-15 pounds of muscle on his 6-foot-5 frame would be a good start towards hitting those 2009-type numbers again. Unfortunately, with the season a little over a month-and-a-half away, adding poundage seems like a tall task given the amount of conditioning and weight-loss players typically encounter in the spring.

I'm not quibbling over how he would play in left field - I'm certain he would be a very much above average left fielder. The difference is that - on average - a center fielder gets 100 more balls hit in their direction over the corner outfielders. My preference would be to have the best fly catcher of the two in that position to create more outs. So far, that person is Ben Revere.

Before the spikes have even hit the turf at Hammonds Stadium, manager Ron Gardenhire has gone on the record as saying Denard Span is his 2012 center fielder. "[span's] going to lead off and be my center fielder. That’s my expectations. If somebody were to tell me that he’s not able to do that, then we’d have to ad lib. But if Denard comes in healthy, then he’s my center fielder, there’s no questions to me about that." Apparently, Ben Revere, who performed admirably in center in Span’s absence, was just keeping the position warm for the incumbent. There is probably little doubt that Gardenhire is basing some of his decision on the fact that Revere has a substandard arm. From the wisdom of the crowd, Fangraphs.com polled their readers to compile a collective scouting report on all players. Their contingency gave Revere’s Arm Strength a 4. This was by far the worst rating among all center fielders and a 90-point difference between him and the leader, Rick Ankiel. Also viewed critically was his release: the Fangraphs.com crowd said that his release rated as a 28, the third-lowest mark in that category too. It doesn’t take advanced metrics to recognize that Revere has a weak arm. It takes a bit more scouting acumen to see that he has a long arm throw which delays his release. Combine these two factors and it equates to extracurricular activity on the base paths. The question is what did Revere’s skill set cost the Twins and does it preclude him from being the starting center fielder? According to BillJamesOnline.net, the website which warehouses a vast majority of the Baseball Info Solution’s defensive data, they peg Revere’s arm as the worst among qualified center fielders in 2012 (minimum 700 innings) – adding data to the fan’s observations. He managed to accumulate 3 kills (throwing out runners) but allowed 63.9% of runners who had an opportunity to advance to the next base did so during his watch. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arms_(2012).jpg Here’s what we know about Revere: He’s fast. Because of this, we might also assume that he gets to many balls quickly, even those that fall to the ground. If he can get to more balls quicker than slower center fielders like, say, Rick Ankiel, one would think it would have some effect in preventing coaches from sending runners around the bases. Until we have other data available like how quickly an outfielder gets to a ball or how much velocity someone throws or how quick their release is, we are simply not going to have a comprehensive overview of how to judge someone’s arm. Still, looking at how many times opposing teams have had the opportunity to advance a base on him (89) versus how many times they decided to move up (56), you have to reach the conclusion that Revere’s lack of an arm has an adverse affect even if he is able to get to the ball quicker than the rest. Allowing runners to move up has been the crux of the argument for those wanting to keep Revere out of center. After all, in addition to patrolling the deepest part of the field, a center field has one of the longest throws to home plate among the three outfield positions and has a hefty chore when throwing to third base as well. In Revere’s case, opponents took note of his arm strength last year and used it to their advantage, wheeling around second-to-third or third-to-home. Understandably, if opposing teams recognize this opening, they will like walk through it at a high rate and put themselves in scoring position whenever possible. That idea certainly makes a manager cringe but, ultimately, it might be the wrong thing to focus on when deciding who should man center field. Moving Revere to left field definitely cuts down the distance on the throws, giving him an opportunity to cut off runners advancing to third or home. On the other side of the coin is the fact that Revere can cover ground like no other. Last year, Revere finished tied for third in Plus/Minus among center fielders with a plus-twenty (+20) mark. That means he was 20 plays better than the average center fielder which added up to 11 runs saved. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Range_(2012).jpg What this boils down to is that by the Plus/Minus system, it is much more valuable to prevent hits than it is to allow the opposing team the opportunity to move into scoring position. In terms of his arm, Revere has spent the offseason trying to improve in that area. Revere told 1500ESPN’s Judd Zulgad and Joe Anderson that he has been throwing “long toss with a football” to build strength. And while he may be able to add a few MPHs, his long arm action still needs to be pared down to shorten his release time. Additionally, there are no real precedence set to say how much a player’s arm can develop over an offseason so there is no way of telling how much Revere can improve his arm. To be sure, Denard Span is no slouch in center himself, especially in his 500-plus innings there last year. While he was not quite at Revere’s catch ‘em all caliber, he managed to save six runs which ranked him as the 11th best center fielder according to the P/M system. In the end, moving Revere out of center may play towards his lack of arm strength however it might wind up costing the Twins some outs when he is no longer patrolling the spacious center at Target Field.

Before the spikes have even hit the turf at Hammonds Stadium, manager Ron Gardenhire has gone on the record as saying Denard Span is his 2012 center fielder. "[span's] going to lead off and be my center fielder. That’s my expectations. If somebody were to tell me that he’s not able to do that, then we’d have to ad lib. But if Denard comes in healthy, then he’s my center fielder, there’s no questions to me about that." Apparently, Ben Revere, who performed admirably in center in Span’s absence, was just keeping the position warm for the incumbent. There is probably little doubt that Gardenhire is basing some of his decision on the fact that Revere has a substandard arm. From the wisdom of the crowd, Fangraphs.com polled their readers to compile a collective scouting report on all players. Their contingency gave Revere’s Arm Strength a 4. This was by far the worst rating among all center fielders and a 90-point difference between him and the leader, Rick Ankiel. Also viewed critically was his release: the Fangraphs.com crowd said that his release rated as a 28, the third-lowest mark in that category too. It doesn’t take advanced metrics to recognize that Revere has a weak arm. It takes a bit more scouting acumen to see that he has a long arm throw which delays his release. Combine these two factors and it equates to extracurricular activity on the base paths. The question is what did Revere’s skill set cost the Twins and does it preclude him from being the starting center fielder? According to BillJamesOnline.net, the website which warehouses a vast majority of the Baseball Info Solution’s defensive data, they peg Revere’s arm as the worst among qualified center fielders in 2012 (minimum 700 innings) – adding data to the fan’s observations. He managed to accumulate 3 kills (throwing out runners) but allowed 63.9% of runners who had an opportunity to advance to the next base did so during his watch. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arms_(2012).jpg Here’s what we know about Revere: He’s fast. Because of this, we might also assume that he gets to many balls quickly, even those that fall to the ground. If he can get to more balls quicker than slower center fielders like, say, Rick Ankiel, one would think it would have some effect in preventing coaches from sending runners around the bases. Until we have other data available like how quickly an outfielder gets to a ball or how much velocity someone throws or how quick their release is, we are simply not going to have a comprehensive overview of how to judge someone’s arm. Still, looking at how many times opposing teams have had the opportunity to advance a base on him (89) versus how many times they decided to move up (56), you have to reach the conclusion that Revere’s lack of an arm has an adverse affect even if he is able to get to the ball quicker than the rest. Allowing runners to move up has been the crux of the argument for those wanting to keep Revere out of center. After all, in addition to patrolling the deepest part of the field, a center field has one of the longest throws to home plate among the three outfield positions and has a hefty chore when throwing to third base as well. In Revere’s case, opponents took note of his arm strength last year and used it to their advantage, wheeling around second-to-third or third-to-home. Understandably, if opposing teams recognize this opening, they will like walk through it at a high rate and put themselves in scoring position whenever possible. That idea certainly makes a manager cringe but, ultimately, it might be the wrong thing to focus on when deciding who should man center field. Moving Revere to left field definitely cuts down the distance on the throws, giving him an opportunity to cut off runners advancing to third or home. On the other side of the coin is the fact that Revere can cover ground like no other. Last year, Revere finished tied for third in Plus/Minus among center fielders with a plus-twenty (+20) mark. That means he was 20 plays better than the average center fielder which added up to 11 runs saved. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Range_(2012).jpg What this boils down to is that by the Plus/Minus system, it is much more valuable to prevent hits than it is to allow the opposing team the opportunity to move into scoring position. In terms of his arm, Revere has spent the offseason trying to improve in that area. Revere told 1500ESPN’s Judd Zulgad and Joe Anderson that he has been throwing “long toss with a football” to build strength. And while he may be able to add a few MPHs, his long arm action still needs to be pared down to shorten his release time. Additionally, there are no real precedence set to say how much a player’s arm can develop over an offseason so there is no way of telling how much Revere can improve his arm. To be sure, Denard Span is no slouch in center himself, especially in his 500-plus innings there last year. While he was not quite at Revere’s catch ‘em all caliber, he managed to save six runs which ranked him as the 11th best center fielder according to the P/M system. In the end, moving Revere out of center may play towards his lack of arm strength however it might wind up costing the Twins some outs when he is no longer patrolling the spacious center at Target Field.

Joe Mauer has spent a substantial amount of time over the past few weeks on various media outlets attempting to erase memories of his contributions (or lack thereof) to the 99-loss season. He’s working hard. He’s putting on weight. He’s eating Wheaties. He’s saying his prayers. He's drinking nothing but unicorn milk. He’s doing the Rocky IV training in Russia. He’s P90X-ing while Tae Bo-ing. Etc. Etc. Merited or not, he has earned himself a reputation among the media types as being soft. KFAN’s Dan Barreiro had an on-going bit entitled “How Long Would Mauer Milk It?” alluding to various other afflictions (rug burn, paper cuts, etc) and the time the Twins catcher would spend on the bench. This also leaked from being a local gag to a more national sentiment. In fact, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Joe Cowley recently wrote that “Joe Mauer is the guy in the foxhole who’d rather push someone else onto the grenade than risk his hair getting messed up.” That’s a pretty damning view of his character, especially coming from a visiting columnist who does not see the inner workings of the clubhouse last year. True, while he may have ticked off some teammates and writers with his spa treatment in the whirlpool facilities, when he was on the field his performance was substandard for the bar that Mauer had set. Clearly, one of the biggest mitigating factors behind this was his health. It is unfortunate that he has had to jump through these hoops to explain that he wasn’t 100% last year but that comes with the $23 million dollar territory. During an interview on1500ESPN with Tom Pelissero and Phil Mackey, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra discussed what he perceived as causes for Mauer’s disappointing 2011 season and the effects the various injuries and ailments had on his performance. Because of his leg injury, Vavra said that the Twins catcher had troubles “getting off his backside and favored his legs a bit.” This, he said, led to more head movement as well as him being “unable to turn on the ball.” Vavra, a very astute hitting coach, said he first noticed the change in Mauer late in the 2010 season when he showed less of a tendency to turning on the ball. The subsequent offseason surgery and inability to fully recuperation likely exacerbated his leg issues into the “bi-lateral leg weakness” that sprung up. Without much of a foundation, Mauer struggled to pull the ball in addition to lifting the ball in the air. As anyone who has spent one iota of time watching the Twins knows, Mauer’s bread-and-butter has been his ability to go the other way. Not only is he able to drive the pitch on the outer-half to left field, he often uses that inside-outside to muscle pitches on the inner-half the other way as well. After all, he’s a .436 career hitter when going oppo and, during his magical 2009 MVP season in which he smacked 28 home runs, a high percentage of his home runs were actually hit to left field (11 opposite field home runs). Even though he made his millions feasting on left field, he still showed the potential to sock one to right every now and then. In 2011, that tendency decreased considerable. As you can see, Mauer’s ability to pull the ball has diminished some in comparison to the past several years and compared to his career too: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Pulling.jpg Similarly, Mauer had troubles lifting the ball to center as well, showing little power when smacking a pitch back up-the-middle: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Center.jpg Visually, his batted ball spray chart tells the same story. In 2009 and 2010 Mauer placed hits liberally to mid-to-deep center field and right field. That essentially evaporated in 2011 as only a handful of balls leaked out to (and over) the wall. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Spray_Chart.jpg What all this says is that he did not drive the ball as well as he did as recently as 2010. As the data showed above, Mauer definitely struggled to get around on pitches but what’s more is that he was unable to generate any lift. In 2011, just 21.5% of the balls he hit were of the fly ball variety – the lowest rate of his career. This put him in the category with punch-and-judy slap hitters like Ben Revere, Wilson Valdez, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki and Elvis Andrus – the only hitters ahead of him who hit fewer fly balls. Without a strong foundation, hitters have troubles elevating the ball and without elevation, you lose extra base hit capabilities. A year ago, Vavra cited Denard Span’s head movement as a major impetus behind his drop-off in 2010. That season, Span’s number declined as his groundball rate grew a bit. According to Vavra, Span was demonstrating too much head movement, rising up when the pitch was coming and causing him to shift the plane which led to less square contact. Now Vavra has made a mention of this being one of the issues for Mauer. If Mauer has been doing the same thing, it is not showing up on video footage of him (at least not to the extent that Span’s head movement had shown).Nevertheless, his 55.4% groundball rate in 2011 was the highest of his career and changing his vision plane would be a logical source for this increase. What are the odds that Mauer can bring himself back up into shape for 2012? Mauer had said he has rededicated himself this offseason, reportedly adding 30 pounds after shedding so much during the season last year, but mostly concentrating on his knee: "My workouts at this point were focused on rehabbing the knee, and I really didn't get to work on other things. Being a baseball player, with all the other movements you need to make, you need to focus on total body, and I'm able to do that now.” If healthy in 2012, Mauer should be able to turn on the ball a bit more, adding some lift and distance, and make people forget that he spent in the infirmary. He will likely never match that special 2009 season but as a high average/high on-base, solid defensive catcher, he is capable of being the anchor this team desperately needs.

Joe Mauer has spent a substantial amount of time over the past few weeks on various media outlets attempting to erase memories of his contributions (or lack thereof) to the 99-loss season. He’s working hard. He’s putting on weight. He’s eating Wheaties. He’s saying his prayers. He's drinking nothing but unicorn milk. He’s doing the Rocky IV training in Russia. He’s P90X-ing while Tae Bo-ing. Etc. Etc. Merited or not, he has earned himself a reputation among the media types as being soft. KFAN’s Dan Barreiro had an on-going bit entitled “How Long Would Mauer Milk It?” alluding to various other afflictions (rug burn, paper cuts, etc) and the time the Twins catcher would spend on the bench. This also leaked from being a local gag to a more national sentiment. In fact, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Joe Cowley recently wrote that “Joe Mauer is the guy in the foxhole who’d rather push someone else onto the grenade than risk his hair getting messed up.” That’s a pretty damning view of his character, especially coming from a visiting columnist who does not see the inner workings of the clubhouse last year. True, while he may have ticked off some teammates and writers with his spa treatment in the whirlpool facilities, when he was on the field his performance was substandard for the bar that Mauer had set. Clearly, one of the biggest mitigating factors behind this was his health. It is unfortunate that he has had to jump through these hoops to explain that he wasn’t 100% last year but that comes with the $23 million dollar territory. During an interview on1500ESPN with Tom Pelissero and Phil Mackey, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra discussed what he perceived as causes for Mauer’s disappointing 2011 season and the effects the various injuries and ailments had on his performance. Because of his leg injury, Vavra said that the Twins catcher had troubles “getting off his backside and favored his legs a bit.” This, he said, led to more head movement as well as him being “unable to turn on the ball.” Vavra, a very astute hitting coach, said he first noticed the change in Mauer late in the 2010 season when he showed less of a tendency to turning on the ball. The subsequent offseason surgery and inability to fully recuperation likely exacerbated his leg issues into the “bi-lateral leg weakness” that sprung up. Without much of a foundation, Mauer struggled to pull the ball in addition to lifting the ball in the air. As anyone who has spent one iota of time watching the Twins knows, Mauer’s bread-and-butter has been his ability to go the other way. Not only is he able to drive the pitch on the outer-half to left field, he often uses that inside-outside to muscle pitches on the inner-half the other way as well. After all, he’s a .436 career hitter when going oppo and, during his magical 2009 MVP season in which he smacked 28 home runs, a high percentage of his home runs were actually hit to left field (11 opposite field home runs). Even though he made his millions feasting on left field, he still showed the potential to sock one to right every now and then. In 2011, that tendency decreased considerable. As you can see, Mauer’s ability to pull the ball has diminished some in comparison to the past several years and compared to his career too: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Pulling.jpg Similarly, Mauer had troubles lifting the ball to center as well, showing little power when smacking a pitch back up-the-middle: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Center.jpg Visually, his batted ball spray chart tells the same story. In 2009 and 2010 Mauer placed hits liberally to mid-to-deep center field and right field. That essentially evaporated in 2011 as only a handful of balls leaked out to (and over) the wall. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Spray_Chart.jpg What all this says is that he did not drive the ball as well as he did as recently as 2010. As the data showed above, Mauer definitely struggled to get around on pitches but what’s more is that he was unable to generate any lift. In 2011, just 21.5% of the balls he hit were of the fly ball variety – the lowest rate of his career. This put him in the category with punch-and-judy slap hitters like Ben Revere, Wilson Valdez, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki and Elvis Andrus – the only hitters ahead of him who hit fewer fly balls. Without a strong foundation, hitters have troubles elevating the ball and without elevation, you lose extra base hit capabilities. A year ago, Vavra cited Denard Span’s head movement as a major impetus behind his drop-off in 2010. That season, Span’s number declined as his groundball rate grew a bit. According to Vavra, Span was demonstrating too much head movement, rising up when the pitch was coming and causing him to shift the plane which led to less square contact. Now Vavra has made a mention of this being one of the issues for Mauer. If Mauer has been doing the same thing, it is not showing up on video footage of him (at least not to the extent that Span’s head movement had shown).Nevertheless, his 55.4% groundball rate in 2011 was the highest of his career and changing his vision plane would be a logical source for this increase. What are the odds that Mauer can bring himself back up into shape for 2012? Mauer had said he has rededicated himself this offseason, reportedly adding 30 pounds after shedding so much during the season last year, but mostly concentrating on his knee: "My workouts at this point were focused on rehabbing the knee, and I really didn't get to work on other things. Being a baseball player, with all the other movements you need to make, you need to focus on total body, and I'm able to do that now.” If healthy in 2012, Mauer should be able to turn on the ball a bit more, adding some lift and distance, and make people forget that he spent in the infirmary. He will likely never match that special 2009 season but as a high average/high on-base, solid defensive catcher, he is capable of being the anchor this team desperately needs.

Yup, bone-graft: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09135/970290-63.stm