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Yesterday, the Twins traded a known commodity in center fielder Denard Span for the potential of right-hander Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9, hard-throwing and former first round pick with talents that have impressed prospect pundits. While the Nationals get immediately better, the Twins will have to wait to see if Meyer’s talent pans out. Here’s what we know about Meyer: He can throw in the upper 90s (ooh!) coupled with a devastating breaking pitch (ahh!) and is really super tall (whoa!). Do those three things make him destined for baseball immortality? Not necessarily, after all, two of those three things could have been said about former Twin Jim Hoey. So what makes Meyer so promising to the Twins? Off the bat, well, he misses bats - something that has been sorely lacking among the system’s talent. In first professional season, Meyer struck out 26.6% of all batters faced. Comparatively, the starter to throw over 100 innings with the closest strikeout rate within the Twins organization was Liam Hendriks with a 19.9% strikeout rate. When opponents do make contact, they have mainly put the ball in play on the ground. With a ground ball rate over 50% split between two levels, Meyer has proven that his pitches are difficult to square up. Although grounder rates typically decline some as a pitcher advances up the ladder, Meyer’s current rate is impressive and a good starting point. Because of his Futures Game outing, albeit a brief, six-pitch endeavor, we have a glance at what sort of action he has on his pitches thanks to the magic of pitch f/x cameras. The first thing that sticks out is his release point. Naturally, with a big frame at 6-foot-9, you would expect that he would have an equally impressive release point. Unlike fellow vertically imposing hurlers like Jon Rauch (6-foot-11), Meyer does not have a release point that extends above his height limit. Rauch’s fastball release point has averaged 7.1 feet above the ground (remember, pitch f/x captures the “release point” a foot and change after a pitcher lets go of the ball). By comparison, the pitch f/x camera’s that night in Kauffman Stadium said that Meyer’s fastball was being released at 6.6 feet on average - slightly below his overall height. This means Meyer is coming from a three-quarter slot rather than over-the-top arm action. In this screen grab captures from Mike Newman’s scouting video, you can see where Meyer’s release point is: During his Futures Game outing, BrooksBaseball.net says that Meyer’s no-seam fastball, a pitch he threw four of the six times, averaged 99 miles an hour with glove-side run. Obviously when you are throwing cheddar at 95+ as a starter, the movement is not exactly the focal point that the hitter is grumbling about as he walks back to the dugout. Still, it is noteworthy that Meyer has some very good run on his fastball nonetheless. If you don’t have movement, you end up like Jim Hoey’s fastball which major league opponents can catch up to, In describing this no-seam pitch, Meyer told MiLB.com’s Andrew Pentis that in college he had thrown a straight four-seam fastball but discovered that he actually threw his “no-seam” fastball -- a two-seam grip in which he positions his fingers closer together off of the seams -- harder than his four-seamer with the added bonus of movement. Combined with his three-quarters release point, this pitch will demonstrate plenty of run. So, if a hitter actually is able to catch up to this 99er, it is also running either into (if right-handed) or away from (if left-handed) and making it that much more difficult to square up. This is part of the reason why he has been able to generate ground balls in over 50% of balls put into play. This particular clip of his fastball, captured during a bullpen session while in the South Atlantic League by the aforementioned Newman, shows how his fastball runs down and into right-handers: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354284175_Meyer2.gif What you also see is his ability to dial it up to another level: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Meyer.gif Meyer’s fastball does not end up at the catcher’s target (down in the zone) but rather finishes up in the zone. To me, this is reminiscent of some of Justin Verlander’s fastballs. Watching Verlander the years, you see his catcher call for something lower and then have the right-hander simply overpower you with a high fastball. What makes him more than just a one-trick pony is his devastating knuckle curve he mixes in. While some outlets will frequently refer to this pitch as a “slider” - mostly because it is thrown with a hard velocity and has a sharp, downward break - Meyer actually grips this pitch with a fingernail dug into the horseshoe-shaped part of the ball. As he describes to Pentis: Here is Meyer’s knuckle curve grip during the Futures Game. Note the positioning of his index finger: This downward action created by the grip has caused plenty of swing-and-misses and was rated by Baseball America as the best slider in the Nationals’ organization. While it is absolute filth at times, some of his unstable mechanics, an issue with taller pitchers, caused some problems this pitch. During his outing this summer, Newman noted that: In addition to his knuckle curve, Meyer is developing a change-up which he admits does not have the overall feel for but is working hard on perfecting that pitch. At the very least, the change in velocity -- from the upper 90s to the upper 80s -- gives the opponents something to think about. However, if Meyer is going to progress to the point of being a front-of-the-rotation starter, he will need to have that all-important third pitch. Otherwise his two-pitch fastball-knuckle curve combination has reliever written all over it. It’s long been said that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Some flame out, some get hurt and some never adapt. In Meyer’s case, injury is not out of the question, but his skill set is very strong. The Twins organization’s coaches and instructors -- likely those in New Britain -- will be tasked with refining his mechanics and instilling some consistency in them as well as finalizing his change-up in order to maximize his potential as a starter.
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Twins trade Denard Span for Nationals' 2011 first round pick
Parker Hageman posted an article in Twins
The Twins announce that they have have traded Denard Span to the Washington Nationals for pitcher Alex Meyer, a 2011 first round draft pick (23rd overall). The big-bodied Meyer, 6'9" and 220, spent last year split between A and High-A, striking out 26.6% of batters faced, walking just 8.6% and produced a 2.86 ERA which led to an invite to the Futures Game. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fangraphs.com had an excellent write-up on Meyer, noting that his 97-98 MPH fastball is very impressive in addition to his slider - which Baseball America considered the system's best after the 2011 season. From the Fangraphs.com's article, here's Mike Newman's (Scouting the Sally) scouting report on Meyer's secondary stuff: Newman went on to say that the name that popped into his head the most was "Matt Clement" - a promising pitcher who never lived up to the hype. Following his draft in 2011, Baseball America's Aaron Fitt said this about the right-hander, noting caution of mechanical issues which plagues taller pitchers: Clement and now Brackman? Uff. Not the most impressive comparables. Still, as Fitt said, there is high-upside there, potential to be a top-of-the-rotation guy - something the Twins don't have now, nor deeper in the farm system. Given his age (23 in January), there's an outside possibility that Meyer could be ready to join the rotation sometime in 2014. In trading Span, the Twins free themselves of a $4.75 million commitment for 2013 and $7 million in 2014 ($6.5M plus a $500,000 buyout). -
The Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported yesterday that the Twins officials have been in contact with Francisco Liriano’s representatives and will meet next week in Nashville during the winter meetings. To many Twins fans, the news probably inspired a palm to the face followed by a head to the desk. After all, Liriano has been as bad of a starter in the past two seasons not named Nick Blackburn -- another reason to repeat the face-palm and head-desk combination. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Since his mini-rebound in 2010, Liriano has turned in a bloated 5.23 ERA (sixth highest in that time) and has walked 12.6% of batters faced (second most in MLB). His inability to control the strike zone has resulted in the overabundance of baserunners and subsequent runs scored (hence the ERA and walk rate). Pitchers need to work ahead and throw a high percentage of strikes in order to maintain success at the major league level. High walk rates mean quick-rising pitch counts and early showers which means more strain on the bullpen and stress on the manager’s heart. Liriano, however, has been baseball’s biggest culprit of digging himself into a hole the past two years. According to Fangraphs.com’s pitch data, his 51.7% first-pitch strike rate is the lowest in baseball. It should be elementary but this was a very significant factor for Liriano has when he fell behind, opponents were able to reach base in a myriad of ways, in almost 50% of those instances (.498 on-base percentage when batters ahead versus .467 MLB-average). In comparison, when he was able to get ahead of opponents, he was able to retire them at a rate higher than the baseball norm (.186 on-base percentage versus .211 MLB-average). In terms of raw stuff, Liriano has been one of the best in the game. His slider has been able to make the smartest of hitters look completely stupid once it begins to descend the other direction. Thanks to good velocity and tilt, he is able to achieve plenty of swing-and-misses (23% in 2012) on the slider but it is a pitch best used when he is ahead in the count. Falling behind more frequently in 2012 translated into more two-seam fastballs (titled “Sinker” in this chart) says BrooksBaseball.net: Liriano’s two-seam was one of the reasons he was his own worst enemy the past two years. In 2010, Liriano, not showing exemplary command of the pitch, managed to throw it in the zone over 52% of the time. The past two years, that rate has dropped to below 50% -- 46% in 2012 -- meaning that every other fastball was not in the strike zone. Hitters may be fooled by sharp breaking pitches darting out of the zone but a fastball isn’t going to get them to bite as regularly. As such, after a season of recognizing this tendency to miss the zone, hitters kept the bat on their shoulders more frequently (36% swing rate in ‘12 versus 44% in ‘10) and strayed after fewer out of zone fastballs (20% in ‘12 versus 25% in ‘10). The end result was a grand total of 52 walks on the pitch in 2012 compared to just 27 in 2010. A reunion with former pitching coach, Bobby Cuellar, who was recently promoted to bullpen coach by the Twins, may be the right combination to get Liriano’s game back on track. After all, it was Cuellar who had worked with Liriano on refining his mechanics which allowed him to throw more strikes -- currently his most notable flaw. Of course, a pessimist would argue that Cuellar has not exactly pumped out any other pitchers like Liriano or Johan Santana since his return to the organization since 2007. This past year, Nick Blackburn was sent to Rochester and Cuellar was instructed to fix whatever was wrong. After several successful outings in AAA, Blackburn was recalled and proceeded to crank out a turd of start after another over his final 12 starts. Whatever knowledge was bestowed upon Liriano and Santana did not sink in with Blackburn. What’s more is that Liriano was already suppose to be fix by White Sox pitching guru Don Cooper, who the careers of Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton have been improved because of his instructions. While it was just two months of mentorship, Cooper, who said that he knew what was wrong with the lefty, did little to set Liriano straight (he actually fell behind in the count more while in Chicago). In fact, when he started to careen off kilter, Cooper told reporters that it was more mental than physical, something the Twins had been saying all along: If the legendary Cooper cannot fix what ails Liriano, how is Cuellar going to resuscitate his career? Video does show that Liriano has some changes to his delivery from the 2010 season and a big part of that is keeping it consistent. In 2011, he was not extending the same as he did in 2010 which changed his release point. Early on in 2012, it was falling away to the third base side with every pitch and causing some arm slot issues. Can Cuellar perform the same magic as he did almost a decade ago in New Britain? Ultimately, if the Twins believe working with Cuellar can positively influence Liriano, somehow coaxing the 2010 success out of him, then a one-year gamble with the expectation that he is a back-of-the-rotation arm would be as good of a move as signing potential injury risks of the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Scott Baker or Scott Feldman.
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Twins interested in a Francisco Liriano reunion
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
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Twins interested in a Francisco Liriano reunion
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2750[/ATTACH]The Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported yesterday that the Twins officials have been in contact with Francisco Liriano’s representatives and will meet next week in Nashville during the winter meetings. To many Twins fans, the news probably inspired a palm to the face followed by a head to the desk. After all, Liriano has been as bad of a starter in the past two seasons not named Nick Blackburn -- another reason to repeat the face-palm and head-desk combination. Since his mini-rebound in 2010, Liriano has turned in a bloated 5.23 ERA (sixth highest in that time) and has walked 12.6% of batters faced (second most in MLB). His inability to control the strike zone has resulted in the overabundance of baserunners and subsequent runs scored (hence the ERA and walk rate). Pitchers need to work ahead and throw a high percentage of strikes in order to maintain success at the major league level. High walk rates mean quick-rising pitch counts and early showers which means more strain on the bullpen and stress on the manager’s heart. Liriano, however, has been baseball’s biggest culprit of digging himself into a hole the past two years. According to Fangraphs.com’s pitch data, his 51.7% first-pitch strike rate is the lowest in baseball. It should be elementary but this was a very significant factor for Liriano has when he fell behind, opponents were able to reach base in a myriad of ways, in almost 50% of those instances (.498 on-base percentage when batters ahead versus .467 MLB-average). In comparison, when he was able to get ahead of opponents, he was able to retire them at a rate higher than the baseball norm (.186 on-base percentage versus .211 MLB-average). In terms of raw stuff, Liriano has been one of the best in the game. His slider has been able to make the smartest of hitters look completely stupid once it begins to descend the other direction. Thanks to good velocity and tilt, he is able to achieve plenty of swing-and-misses (23% in 2012) on the slider but it is a pitch best used when he is ahead in the count. Falling behind more frequently in 2012 translated into more two-seam fastballs (titled “Sinker” in this chart) says BrooksBaseball.net: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2749[/ATTACH] Liriano’s two-seam was one of the reasons he was his own worst enemy the past two years. In 2010, Liriano, not showing exemplary command of the pitch, managed to throw it in the zone over 52% of the time. The past two years, that rate has dropped to below 50% -- 46% in 2012 -- meaning that every other fastball was not in the strike zone. Hitters may be fooled by sharp breaking pitches darting out of the zone but a fastball isn’t going to get them to bite as regularly. As such, after a season of recognizing this tendency to miss the zone, hitters kept the bat on their shoulders more frequently (36% swing rate in ‘12 versus 44% in ‘10) and strayed after fewer out of zone fastballs (20% in ‘12 versus 25% in ‘10). The end result was a grand total of 52 walks on the pitch in 2012 compared to just 27 in 2010. A reunion with former pitching coach, Bobby Cuellar, who was recently promoted to bullpen coach by the Twins, may be the right combination to get Liriano’s game back on track. After all, it was Cuellar who had worked with Liriano on refining his mechanics which allowed him to throw more strikes -- currently his most notable flaw. Of course, a pessimist would argue that Cuellar has not exactly pumped out any other pitchers like Liriano or Johan Santana since his return to the organization since 2007. This past year, Nick Blackburn was sent to Rochester and Cuellar was instructed to fix whatever was wrong. After several successful outings in AAA, Blackburn was recalled and proceeded to crank out a turd of start after another over his final 12 starts. Whatever knowledge was bestowed upon Liriano and Santana did not sink in with Blackburn. What’s more is that Liriano was already suppose to be fix by White Sox pitching guru Don Cooper, who the careers of Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton have been improved because of his instructions. While it was just two months of mentorship, Cooper, who said that he knew what was wrong with the lefty, did little to set Liriano straight (he actually fell behind in the count more while in Chicago). In fact, when he started to careen off kilter, Cooper told reporters that it was more mental than physical, something the Twins had been saying all along: If the legendary Cooper cannot fix what ails Liriano, how is Cuellar going to resuscitate his career? Video does show that Liriano has some changes to his delivery from the 2010 season and a big part of that is keeping it consistent. In 2011, he was not extending the same as he did in 2010 which changed his release point. Early on in 2012, it was falling away to the third base side with every pitch and causing some arm slot issues. Can Cuellar perform the same magic as he did almost a decade ago in New Britain? Ultimately, if the Twins believe working with Cuellar can positively influence Liriano, somehow coaxing the 2010 success out of him, then a one-year gamble with the expectation that he is a back-of-the-rotation arm would be as good of a move as signing potential injury risks of the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Scott Baker or Scott Feldman. -
Do the Tigers really have that much more money than the Twins?
Parker Hageman posted an article in Twins
This is back-of-the-napkin type math based on a lot of assumption so please, do not attempt to cite the concluded numbers as final. They are, in essence, an educated guess that is founded from bits and pieces of available public information. But let’s use it to attempt to figure out why the Tigers are able to make it rain on the free agent market while the Twins are left counting pennies. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Tigers recently signed Torii Hunter to a two-year, $26 million deal. With that addition, Detroit now has five players under contract for 2013 who are scheduled to make $10 million or more for a grand total of $81 million. Plus, they have not completely ruled out extending pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking roughly $15 million per year. How is it that the Tigers are spending small principalities worth of money while the Twins stand idly by and target the one or two-year bargains? Detroit made approximately $93.93M at the gate last year (based on attendance multiplied by the $31 ticket price average sold). The Twins, on the other hand, made $91.74M (averaging $33 per ticket sold). That’s without taking into consideration advertising the stadium, suites, luxury boxes, concessions (which can range from $3.4 million to $20 million depending on the attendance and offerings). Assuming the Tigers were one of the teams to make the higher end of that based on their competitiveness and relatively new stadium, with a payroll of $133 million in 2012, they likely came in $10 million short. Comparatively, the Twins who also likely made the higher end of the stadium-generated revenue from suites and concessions, could have potentially made $10 million in profits (without taking in to consideration the operating costs, farm system expenses, etc, etc). Then there is the benefits of being a playoff team. According to research done by BizofBaseball.com’s Maury Brown, teams can stand to make an average of $1 to $2 million per game in the playoffs. If we split the difference, the Tigers could have made approximately $19.5 million for the 13 games played in October. In addition to that, Brown notes, the real windfall is the revenue generated for the following year as the club receives additional season ticket requests, sponsorships and are able to leverage that if local TV/radio contracts are up in the air. With the Twins not making it into even playoff contention for the second straight season, undoubtedly season ticket sales and sponsorship requests are down. The Tigers can plan for additional revenues whereas the Twins will likely brace for some fallout. The biggest difference maker between the two markets is the size of the TV contracts: The Tigers get an estimated $50M per season from their Fox Sports affiliate while the Twins are getting $29M per season. So, rather than having an operating loss as described above, the Tigers have somewhere closer to a $60 million profit thanks to the playoffs and broadcast rights. The Twins, meanwhile, could have somewhere in the ballpark of $39 million – a difference of $21 million in favor of the Tigers. What’s more, both teams, starting in 2014, will receive $50 million from the MLB central fund because of the new television contracts with ESPN and TBS. This added bonus certainly is taken into consideration when teams and agents are projecting long-term contracts. In the end, the Tigers could be poised to spend roughly $110 million (with some operating expenses removed) in 2014 while the Twins will be trying to compete with $89 million (with operating costs and what is certain to be a decline in ticket/stadium-based revenue). While it is not at the level as Detroit, the Twins still have plenty of money to spend for 2013 (particularly when you consider how much they have dropped off their payroll from the 2012 season) so they should not be crying poor. Sure, the ownership may be pocketing this additional funds – and that’s their prerogative – but, based on my outsider calculations, there appears to be plenty of revenue to add a few of the game’s top free agents…if they wanted to. -
Do the Tigers really have that much more money than the Twins?
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2690[/ATTACH]This is back-of-the-napkin type math based on a lot of assumption so please, do not attempt to cite the concluded numbers as final. They are, in essence, an educated guess that is founded from bits and pieces of available public information. But let’s use it to attempt to figure out why the Tigers are able to make it rain on the free agent market while the Twins are left counting pennies. The Tigers recently signed Torii Hunter to a two-year, $26 million deal. With that addition, Detroit now has five players under contract for 2013 who are scheduled to make $10 million or more for a grand total of $81 million. Plus, they have not completely ruled out extending pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking roughly $15 million per year. How is it that the Tigers are spending small principalities worth of money while the Twins stand idly by and target the one or two-year bargains? Detroit made approximately $93.93M at the gate last year (based on attendance multiplied by the $31 ticket price average sold). The Twins, on the other hand, made $91.74M (averaging $33 per ticket sold). That’s without taking into consideration advertising the stadium, suites, luxury boxes, concessions (which can range from $3.4 million to $20 million depending on the attendance and offerings). Assuming the Tigers were one of the teams to make the higher end of that based on their competitiveness and relatively new stadium, with a payroll of $133 million in 2012, they likely came in $10 million short. Comparatively, the Twins who also likely made the higher end of the stadium-generated revenue from suites and concessions, could have potentially made $10 million in profits (without taking in to consideration the operating costs, farm system expenses, etc, etc). Then there is the benefits of being a playoff team. According to research done by BizofBaseball.com’s Maury Brown, teams can stand to make an average of $1 to $2 million per game in the playoffs. If we split the difference, the Tigers could have made approximately $19.5 million for the 13 games played in October. In addition to that, Brown notes, the real windfall is the revenue generated for the following year as the club receives additional season ticket requests, sponsorships and are able to leverage that if local TV/radio contracts are up in the air. With the Twins not making it into even playoff contention for the second straight season, undoubtedly season ticket sales and sponsorship requests are down. The Tigers can plan for additional revenues whereas the Twins will likely brace for some fallout. The biggest difference maker between the two markets is the size of the TV contracts: The Tigers get an estimated $50M per season from their Fox Sports affiliate while the Twins are getting $29M per season. So, rather than having an operating loss as described above, the Tigers have somewhere closer to a $60 million profit thanks to the playoffs and broadcast rights. The Twins, meanwhile, could have somewhere in the ballpark of $39 million – a difference of $21 million in favor of the Tigers. What’s more, both teams, starting in 2014, will receive $50 million from the MLB central fund because of the new television contracts with ESPN and TBS. This added bonus certainly is taken into consideration when teams and agents are projecting long-term contracts. In the end, the Tigers could be poised to spend roughly $110 million (with some operating expenses removed) in 2014 while the Twins will be trying to compete with $89 million (with operating costs and what is certain to be a decline in ticket/stadium-based revenue). While it is not at the level as Detroit, the Twins still have plenty of money to spend for 2013 (particularly when you consider how much they have dropped off their payroll from the 2012 season) so they should not be crying poor. Sure, the ownership may be pocketing this additional funds – and that’s their prerogative – but, based on my outsider calculations, there appears to be plenty of revenue to add a few of the game’s top free agents…if they wanted to. -
Do the Tigers really have that much more money than the Twins?
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
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Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2683[/ATTACH]One of the more notable batted ball tendencies out of Joe Mauer’s 2012 season is that for the first time in his career, he actually pulled the ball more often than he went the other way. This happened very quietly, perhaps because he still managed to spray the entire field with hits and, admittedly, it was not as if he was launching majestic shots onto the plaza with this new found tendency to make anyone take notice. Rather, the Twins backstop/first baseman/designated hitter drove the ball into the ground at the same alarming rate he had for the majority of his career. Only this time, they found real estate at a higher clip than his norm. With the league’s second-highest ground ball rate when pulling – an unsightly 85.1% ground ball rate – it is hard to believe that so many of those scooted past first and second basemen in 2012. Nevertheless, when he did yank the pitch, he had a ball in play average of .285 – his highest success rate aside from his ’07 mark of .295 produced thanks, in part, to the ground ball-accelerating carpeting of the Metrodome. While this could be a statistical anomaly or simply batted ball luck, digging deeper, it appears that there may be some intelligent design behind this method. The first thing to consider is that Mauer’s pull tendencies do not reflect any changes made in response to changes in the oppositions’ approach, on the contrary, they kept the ball down-and-away at a high frequency. However, when they did go down-and-in or on his belt off of the plate, Mauer opened up more readily on those pitches. Here, his batting average on balls in play chart in 2012, provided by BaseballProspectus.com, shows how well he was at handling pitches down and in: Particularly interesting is Mauer’s aggressive tendencies with pitches that were in off of the plate. Although he does inside-out plenty of pitches on the inner half, the further they are off the plate, the more likely it is that a hitter must open up and attack the pitch out in front. This translates into a higher percentage of hits to the right-side of the field for left-handed hitters. Now, situationally, next to the Yankees’ Robinson Cano (166) Mauer was at the plate for the most appearances in double-play situations. Of his 641 times at bat, 148 of those were with a runner on first with less than two outs. For those who recall booing him lustily this year, you probably remember that Mauer bounced into 23 double-plays -- an unfortunate byproduct of having ground ball tendencies when pulling. The other side of that coin is that in terms of defensive positioning, this gives the left-handed Mauer a bigger infield hole on that right side and a decisive advantage. In practice, when a left-handed hitter is up, the shortstop will cover second base on a stolen base attempt and allow the second baseman to cheat towards first base while staying the vicinity of the base in the event of a double play ball. In Mauer’s case, his career-long tendency of hitting the ball back up-the-middle has enticed defensive alignments to squeeze him up the middle rather than have the second baseman shade towards his left. Below is an example of this configuration that Mauer faced often. In this instance, the Phillies were up by three and the Twins had runners on the corners with no outs. With the lead, Philadelphia chose to play the middle infield at double play depth, bringing the second baseman in and towards the bag. The first baseman held the runner. This created ample room for a well hit grounder to skip through the right side. And, as such, the Phillies’ left-handed reliever, Antonio Bastardo delivered a pitch on the inner half of the plate and Mauer re-directed it to that vacant space. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2681[/ATTACH] Even taking it a step further and simply having a runner on first is very advantageous for Mauer, regardless if the double play is in order. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2684[/ATTACH] In similar example of Mauer profiting from having a runner on first, in this game against the Indians, the Twins were leading by four in the fourth. Once again, the runners were on the corners. Not wanting to put another runner in scoring position, the Indians held Revere at the bag. Gambling on Mauer’s tendency to use the middle of the field, Indians’ second baseman Jason Kipnis was playing back (which would help cover more ground) but squeezing towards short. Comparatively, when teams do not have to defend against base runner, they were able to play Mauer straight-up in the infield (perhaps cheating their middle infielders towards the center of the diamond). In this case, the Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks is able to play back and first baseman Corey Hart is able to do the same, increasing the defensive coverage and reducing the BABIP odds on grounders to the right side of the field. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2680[/ATTACH] Without a runners on base, Mauer’s average on balls in play has been lower over his career and is 34 points lower than when he has at least a runner on first with less than two outs. This past year his ball in play average was 83 points lower (.333) with no one on versus with a runner on first, less than two outs situation (.416). Theoretically, some of that has to do with his success at directional hitting when given sizable targets in which to aim. Based on his altered batted ball tendencies and the results, it is not far fetched to say that Joe Mauer is using his unequaled bat control to garner a few more hits in those circumstances. -
One of the more notable batted ball tendencies out of Joe Mauer’s 2012 season is that for the first time in his career, he actually pulled the ball more often than he went the other way. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This happened very quietly, perhaps because he still managed to spray the entire field with hits and, admittedly, it was not as if he was launching majestic shots onto the plaza with this new found tendency to make anyone take notice. Rather, the Twins backstop/first baseman/designated hitter drove the ball into the ground at the same alarming rate he had for the majority of his career. Only this time, they found real estate at a higher clip than his norm. With the league’s second-highest ground ball rate when pulling – an unsightly 85.1% ground ball rate – it is hard to believe that so many of those scooted past first and second basemen in 2012. Nevertheless, when he did yank the pitch, he had a ball in play average of .285 – his highest success rate aside from his ’07 mark of .295 produced thanks, in part, to the ground ball-accelerating carpeting of the Metrodome. While this could be a statistical anomaly or simply batted ball luck, digging deeper, it appears that there may be some intelligent design behind this method. The first thing to consider is that Mauer’s pull tendencies do not reflect any changes made in response to changes in the oppositions’ approach, on the contrary, they kept the ball down-and-away at a high frequency. However, when they did go down-and-in or on his belt off of the plate, Mauer opened up more readily on those pitches. Here, his batting average on balls in play chart in 2012, provided by BaseballProspectus.com, shows how well he was at handling pitches down and in: Particularly interesting is Mauer’s aggressive tendencies with pitches that were in off of the plate. Although he does inside-out plenty of pitches on the inner half, the further they are off the plate, the more likely it is that a hitter must open up and attack the pitch out in front. This translates into a higher percentage of hits to the right-side of the field for left-handed hitters. Now, situationally, next to the Yankees’ Robinson Cano (166) Mauer was at the plate for the most appearances in double-play situations. Of his 641 times at bat, 148 of those were with a runner on first with less than two outs. For those who recall booing him lustily this year, you probably remember that Mauer bounced into 23 double-plays -- an unfortunate byproduct of having ground ball tendencies when pulling. The other side of that coin is that in terms of defensive positioning, this gives the left-handed Mauer a bigger infield hole on that right side and a decisive advantage. In practice, when a left-handed hitter is up, the shortstop will cover second base on a stolen base attempt and allow the second baseman to cheat towards first base while staying the vicinity of the base in the event of a double play ball. In Mauer’s case, his career-long tendency of hitting the ball back up-the-middle has enticed defensive alignments to squeeze him up the middle rather than have the second baseman shade towards his left. Below is an example of this configuration that Mauer faced often. In this instance, the Phillies were up by three and the Twins had runners on the corners with no outs. With the lead, Philadelphia chose to play the middle infield at double play depth, bringing the second baseman in and towards the bag. The first baseman held the runner. This created ample room for a well hit grounder to skip through the right side. And, as such, the Phillies’ left-handed reliever, Antonio Bastardo delivered a pitch on the inner half of the plate and Mauer re-directed it to that vacant space. Even taking it a step further and simply having a runner on first is very advantageous for Mauer, regardless if the double play is in order. In similar example of Mauer profiting from having a runner on first, in this game against the Indians, the Twins were leading by four in the fourth. Once again, the runners were on the corners. Not wanting to put another runner in scoring position, the Indians held Revere at the bag. Gambling on Mauer’s tendency to use the middle of the field, Indians’ second baseman Jason Kipnis was playing back (which would help cover more ground) but squeezing towards short. Comparatively, when teams do not have to defend against base runner, they were able to play Mauer straight-up in the infield (perhaps cheating their middle infielders towards the center of the diamond). In this case, the Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks is able to play back and first baseman Corey Hart is able to do the same, increasing the defensive coverage and reducing the BABIP odds on grounders to the right side of the field. Without a runners on base, Mauer’s average on balls in play has been lower over his career and is 34 points lower than when he has at least a runner on first with less than two outs. This past year his ball in play average was 83 points lower (.333) with no one on versus with a runner on first, less than two outs situation (.416). Theoretically, some of that has to do with his success at directional hitting when given sizable targets in which to aim. Based on his altered batted ball tendencies and the results, it is not far fetched to say that Joe Mauer is using his unequaled bat control to garner a few more hits in those circumstances.
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Over in Indian Wells, California baseball’s head honchos are engaged in debates regarding rule changes, safety regulations and Ken Rosenthal’s choice of bow ties. In between that and the golfing, teams have been aggressive in their pursuits for available talent. “I’ve been in this business 21 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it,” said pitcher Anibal Sanchez’s agent, Gene Mato of SFX. “This is moving really, really fast.” Even the Twins appear fairly active – at least if you are basing that on their “interest” list. So far, most of the reports emerging from the meetings demonstrated that the Twins are serious about fixing their starting rotation. Yesterday, John Bonnes discussed the potential starting pitching trade options for the Twins, highlighting the Rays and Braves in particular, and Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported that the Twins and Mariners were talking swap. Now, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson compiled an interesting list of players the Twins have had contact with: Brandon McCarthy: Prior to catching on with the A’s, McCarthy was destined to be a flame-out prospect after several seasons with the White Sox and Rangers. If it were not for the early-career arm injuries, McCarthy may never have changed his mechanics which may never have led to the increase in ground balls. He does not miss a ton of bats, but he avoids heavy contact and has kept his home run rate subdued (part of that may have to do with pitching in Oakland). The downside is, with the extensive injury history and the recent blow to the head off the bat of the Erick Aybar, McCarthy has not thrown that many innings raising the question of whether or not he would be able to give a team 30-plus starts. In addition to the Twins, the Cubs are courting the right-hander. Anibal Sanchez: As Wolfson’s source indicated, Sanchez’s asking price may preclude the Twins from actually engaging in serious talks. It was reported last night that the 28-year-old right-hander is seeking a six-year, $90 million deal. Considering that Sanchez is likely the second-best free agent option on the market aside from Zack Greinke and that he is under 30-years-old, there is a strong probability that he could command that kind of cheddar. Ryan Dempster: Reported yesterday by Wolfson, the Twins “inquired” on this 35-year-old free agent. But so too have the Red Sox and now the Milwaukee Brewers. Dempster had success as both a closer and starter for some terrible Cubs teams, and had averaged 206 innings as a starter from 2008 to 2011. In fact, since 2008, he’s had the exact same expected fielding independent pitching number as Jake Peavy (3.73) and has been slightly better in that department than Anibal Sanchez (3.80). Of course, that doesn’t mean he will continue on that path. This past year, he struggled a bit in Texas and has had his velocity drop to sub-90 this year (not a good indicator in the mid-30s). On a one or possibly a two-year deal, Dempster could be an effective addition for Minnesota. Brett Myers: Working on a budget with numerous holes to plug, Terry Ryan will undoubtedly have to get creative in how to get the most out of their available payroll. With that in mind, targeting Brett Myers makes sense. After two consecutive years throwing over 200 innings with the Astros, Houston decided to convert him into a closer. Following a trade to the White Sox Myers, now a free agent, has interest in becoming either a starter or reliever. In terms of performance, Myers has been the archetypical Twins starter: Gets strike one (career 61% first-pitch strike rate), limits walks (career 8% walk rate), is not a strikeout pitcher (at least as a starter). This probably isn’t sexy but he’s done well and, if capable of hitting the 200 innings milestone, he would be a decent number four option in the rotation. Brandon Webb: This falls under the “leave no stone unturned” category. Webb has thrown only 12 real innings since 2009 and that was in the Texas League (AA) in 2011. His shoulder has simply not responded well since his 2009 rotator cuff surgery and that necessitated a second surgery in 2011. Since then, there has been no reports of Webb’s throwing status but considering the surgery was over a year ago, there should be some indication of where he is at velocity-wise. The odds are long but if this former Cy Young winner gets an spring invite and has rediscovered something, who knows. The Twins may ultimately leave California without any new additions to the rotation but obviously the groundwork has been laid. And, as it is rumored, the moves could happen quickly. Stay tuned.
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Twins' weighing free agent options
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2651[/ATTACH]Over in Indian Wells, California baseball’s head honchos are engaged in debates regarding rule changes, safety regulations and Ken Rosenthal’s choice of bow ties. In between that and the golfing, teams have been aggressive in their pursuits for available talent. “I’ve been in this business 21 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it,” said pitcher Anibal Sanchez’s agent, Gene Mato of SFX. “This is moving really, really fast.” Even the Twins appear fairly active – at least if you are basing that on their “interest” list. So far, most of the reports emerging from the meetings demonstrated that the Twins are serious about fixing their starting rotation. Yesterday, John Bonnes discussed the potential starting pitching trade options for the Twins, highlighting the Rays and Braves in particular, and Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported that the Twins and Mariners were talking swap. Now, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson compiled an interesting list of players the Twins have had contact with: Brandon McCarthy: Prior to catching on with the A’s, McCarthy was destined to be a flame-out prospect after several seasons with the White Sox and Rangers. If it were not for the early-career arm injuries, McCarthy may never have changed his mechanics which may never have led to the increase in ground balls. He does not miss a ton of bats, but he avoids heavy contact and has kept his home run rate subdued (part of that may have to do with pitching in Oakland). The downside is, with the extensive injury history and the recent blow to the head off the bat of the Erick Aybar, McCarthy has not thrown that many innings raising the question of whether or not he would be able to give a team 30-plus starts. In addition to the Twins, the Cubs are courting the right-hander. Anibal Sanchez: As Wolfson’s source indicated, Sanchez’s asking price may preclude the Twins from actually engaging in serious talks. It was reported last night that the 28-year-old right-hander is seeking a six-year, $90 million deal. Considering that Sanchez is likely the second-best free agent option on the market aside from Zack Greinke and that he is under 30-years-old, there is a strong probability that he could command that kind of cheddar. Ryan Dempster: Reported yesterday by Wolfson, the Twins “inquired” on this 35-year-old free agent. But so too have the Red Sox and now the Milwaukee Brewers. Dempster had success as both a closer and starter for some terrible Cubs teams, and had averaged 206 innings as a starter from 2008 to 2011. In fact, since 2008, he’s had the exact same expected fielding independent pitching number as Jake Peavy (3.73) and has been slightly better in that department than Anibal Sanchez (3.80). Of course, that doesn’t mean he will continue on that path. This past year, he struggled a bit in Texas and has had his velocity drop to sub-90 this year (not a good indicator in the mid-30s). On a one or possibly a two-year deal, Dempster could be an effective addition for Minnesota. Brett Myers: Working on a budget with numerous holes to plug, Terry Ryan will undoubtedly have to get creative in how to get the most out of their available payroll. With that in mind, targeting Brett Myers makes sense. After two consecutive years throwing over 200 innings with the Astros, Houston decided to convert him into a closer. Following a trade to the White Sox Myers, now a free agent, has interest in becoming either a starter or reliever. In terms of performance, Myers has been the archetypical Twins starter: Gets strike one (career 61% first-pitch strike rate), limits walks (career 8% walk rate), is not a strikeout pitcher (at least as a starter). This probably isn’t sexy but he’s done well and, if capable of hitting the 200 innings milestone, he would be a decent number four option in the rotation. Brandon Webb: This falls under the “leave no stone unturned” category. Webb has thrown only 12 real innings since 2009 and that was in the Texas League (AA) in 2011. His shoulder has simply not responded well since his 2009 rotator cuff surgery and that necessitated a second surgery in 2011. Since then, there has been no reports of Webb’s throwing status but considering the surgery was over a year ago, there should be some indication of where he is at velocity-wise. The odds are long but if this former Cy Young winner gets an spring invite and has rediscovered something, who knows. The Twins may ultimately leave California without any new additions to the rotation but obviously the groundwork has been laid. And, as it is rumored, the moves could happen quickly. Stay tuned. -
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Twins Talkers: Your Twitter Questions
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2634[/ATTACH]Rather than spew out some analysis based on hot stove rumors and theories (which I've already done on Shaun Marcum and Kevin Youkilis, by the way), I thought I would take the opportunity to field some burning questions from the Twins Daily followers via Twitter. On to your questions: Who will be the Twins starting rotation on Opening Day? [@MichaelRHerman] As the Twins have said since the season started winding down in September, Scott Diamond is the only pitcher guaranteed a spot in next year’s rotation. Outside of Diamond, here’s what I envision happening at this point: I see the Twins re-signing Scott Baker, signing one mid-to-low free agent and then trading for a starter. Best optimistic guess at this point? Here’s what I would like to see: 1: James Shields 2: Scott Baker 3: Shaun Marcum/Jeremy Guthrie/Joe Blanton 4: Scott Diamond 5: Internal candidate (Liam Hendriks/Kyle Gibson/Samuel Deduno/Brian Duensing) How’s that? Think there’s any real chance of trading for a strong starter like Buehrle or Shields? [@christopherokey] More so this year than in previous years. I believe the front office is under some pressure from ownership to improve the team in order to avoid seeing a historic decline in revenue during the first five seasons of a new ballpark. Now, I do not believe these to be Steinbrenner-esque directives (“Go out and get be the best-damn pitcher available, money is no object.”) from ownership but Terry Ryan will likely wind up trading a long-time Twin (Denard Span, possibly) and/or someone from the farm system in order to get that piece. Of course, it also matters too what the opposing teams thinks their commodities are worth in return. As much as people like to think the Rays need to unload Shields, they are already shaving off a substantial portion of their payroll (upwards of $20 million), so there is not a need to jettison the pitchers who has thrown the third-most innings in the last three seasons. Rays will likely be looking for a solid return for Shields who has a reasonable $10.25 million left on his contract in addition to a $12 million 2014 team option. I personally like the idea of a Shields acquisition (as you can see by my prediction above) but I just don’t know if the Twins have enough or are willing to part with enough to get him. On the other hand, Buehrle, who has been amazingly consistent and durable for his career, could come less of a ransom than Shields. However, the Marlins have him locked in through 2015 and -- while he is owed a reasonable $11 million in 2013 -- he has $18 million and $19 million coming to him in 2014 and 2015, respectively, as he enters his late-30s. I’m not sure the Twins want to trade away a prime asset for those latter years. Why does Mauer hate hitting home runs? [@DanaWessel] Like most real Minnesotans, Joe Mauer would love to put his head down and just go about his business without all the hoopla. Home runs clearly put undue attention on him while circling the bases from all those cheering fans at the game. Real Minnesotans like Mauer would prefer to slap singles and avoid the showboating. In reality, there is a lot that goes why the sudden spike in 2009 and the complete inability to poke a few shots in to the stands every now and then. First is the external factor of the ballparks which played a significant role in both the increase and the decline. At the Metrodome in 2009 Mauer was feasting on the front row of the left field bleacher seats – hitting 16 of his 28 home runs in that direction. When the Twins moved to Target Field, the outdoor elements and dimensions became extremely restrictive for that kind of power. A ball hit to the right-center gap or center field has difficulty leaving the park. Secondly, his on-going knee issues have undoubtedly drained some power, reducing the amount of drive produced from his lower-half. One interesting note: three of Mauer’s home runs this year have been right down the right field line, not far off of the foul pole. Only one of his home runs dating back to 2008 had been in that region. Perhaps he is starting to figure out what needs to be done in order to hit home runs at Target Field. With another offseason to heal and the additional time away from catching could equate to more “dingers” in 2013. That said don’t expect a big jump, maybe 15 at the most next year. That’s not what most fans want to hear, but Mauer still provides plenty of value with his ability to avoid making outs in over 40% of his plate appearances (one of four hitters in the league this year to do so). Why do former Twins do better outside of the Twins system? (Dickey, Hardy, Lohse, etc) [@brandon_mack] I don’t think this is necessarily true. Yes, there are some players who realize their potential after leaving the organization but it is not because of something the team is or is not doing with these players. Most of the time it the improvement is up to the individual not the organization. What’s more is that in the case of the three players you named, other organizations could also claim the same thing. In the case of R.A. Dickey, he was still very much attempting to refine his knuckleball – a pitch he had just picked up two seasons before arriving to the Twins. He did not have his mastery of knuck then, rarely getting opponents to chase the pitch out of the strike zone or induce silly-looking swings. Both the Rangers and the Brewers gave up on Dickey. J.J. Hardy was not completely healthy (which may or may not have been a testament to the training staff) and he did not focus on pulling the ball (which may or may not have been hitting coach related). When he got to Baltimore, he got healthy, got focused on turning on pitches and was in an environment that was more conducive to hitting home runs. With Lohse, both the Reds and the Phillies had Lohse without reaping the same benefits that the Cardinals just had with his 2012 season. In short, I do not believe there is some internal issues that is causing the Twins to fail to identify future performance – at least, no more so than any other team. Who is the best long-term option at 1B? Morneau, Parmelee or other. [@MikeAmundsen] With Justin Morneau in his early 30’s and teeming with various injuries, it’s not him. Hulking first baseman with injury tendencies do not age well – in fact it typically accelerates. Take Travis Hafner, for example. Until the age of 30, Pronk was having an outstanding career and even receiving MVP votes. After 30, his big body began to breakdown rapidly and frequently, resulting in a significant decline in his numbers: Age 25-30: 112 games per year, .290/.393/.552, 142 HRs Age 31-35: 86 games per year, .259/.353/.436, 59 HRs Because of that, I do not see the Twins retaining Morneau beyond his current contract. Parmelee is still young, intriguing but is unproven over the course of an entire season at the major league level. His 2012 season at Rochester -- one in which he had the league’s second-highest isolated power average (minimum 250 plate appearances) – raising eyebrows that he can develop into a player with some legit power. As Terry Ryan said in the Offseason Handbook, the Twins appear committed to putting Parmelee in the lineup somewhere this year. It may be in right to begin with, but after next season, he could be the team’s first baseman for the next several years. Of course, the real key to the Twins long-term plans at first base will be Mauer. Already seeing some time at first, he has looked comfortable at the defensive-side of the position and could eventually be there for the duration of his contract once squatting is out of the question. Who are the number one suitors for [Denard] Span? Does Gibson start the season with the big league club? [@dropshotbob] It looks like the Rays maybe the top suitors for Span. Tampa has not outright expressed interest, but Span is certainly a logical fit, what with his good defense, good plate discipline and good contract, plus, because B.J. Upton is likely to leave via free agency, Span is almost a natural target. If he doesn’t end up there, Atlanta is another team looking for center field help. Unless something happens to Kyle Gibson between now and spring training, he’s likely on an inside track to start the season with the Twins – probably in the bullpen where the team can limit his innings and monitor his progress as he adapts to major league hitters and wraps his head around pitching in double-decker stadiums. If Buxton doesn’t pan out as a positional player, chance #Twins try him as a pitcher? Reports were mid-hi 90’s in HS. [@Aaron_jenkins] This topic has come up with Aaron Hicks as well, who purportedly threw in the low 90s in high school like Buxton. So far, there are no indications that Buxton is headed for a bust – after all, he was both the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League’s number one prospect overall as an 18-year-old. However, if for whatever reason, he winds up unable to climb up the system as a hitter, I would definitely want the Twins to consider seeing if he can be converted to a pitcher. In fact, any and all positional prospects who have an arm should be given the opportunity to see if they can throw off a mound before being given their walking papers. In a piece at Deadspin.com, Jack Dickey spoke to St Louis Cardinals’ farm director John Vuch and that organizations methods for dealing with prospects with great arms who end up unable to catch on as a hitter: How are my Red Sox gonna look next year? [@MinnesotaRonin] Much like the Twins, the 2012 Red Sox had extensive troubles with their pitching staff – at least in the earned runs department. Boston allowed 754 earned runs, finishing one behind the Twins in that category and third most in the American League. And, like the Twins, things didn’t quite work out as planned, either. Two of their starters, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, had down years. Lester’s season was much more unexpected as the lefty had emerged as the team’s number one-type arm but a decline in strikeouts and an increase in his average on balls in play resulted in more runs. Josh Beckett’s fastball velocity dropped from 93.1 in 2011 to 91.4 in 2012 which opponents made much better contact on. So they wind up dishing out 94 innings to guys like Aaron Cook, who never met a bat he couldn’t hit. In fact, Cook’s 4.9% strikeout rate was the lowest among any starter with a minimum of 90 innings dating since the Mariners’ Glenn Abbott posted the same rate in 1979. But, unlike the Twins, the Red Sox have a ton of financial freedom – and that gives them the ability to fix things quick. In addition to an already high revenue stream, thanks to the unloading of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (and I suppose Nick Punto too), this has freed up approximately $60 million of payroll to rectify the pitching problem, grab an outfield bat and perhaps bail out the auto industry as well. So far, the Sox have been tied to a bevy of free agent including Dan Haren and Scott Baker among others, who would go along with the existing arms of Lester, Buccholz, Felix Doubront and John Lackey. And rumor is the Sox are looking at former Twin Torii Hunter as well. By the way, if you would like to participate in the next round of questions, follow me on Twitter (@OverTheBaggy) and fire me any or all Twins/baseball-related inquiries. -
Rather than spew out some analysis based on hot stove rumors and theories (which I've already done on Shaun Marcum and Kevin Youkilis, by the way), I thought I would take the opportunity to field some burning questions from the Twins Daily followers via Twitter. On to your questions: Who will be the Twins starting rotation on Opening Day? [@MichaelRHerman] [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As the Twins have said since the season started winding down in September, Scott Diamond is the only pitcher guaranteed a spot in next year’s rotation. Outside of Diamond, here’s what I envision happening at this point: I see the Twins re-signing Scott Baker, signing one mid-to-low free agent and then trading for a starter. Best optimistic guess at this point? Here’s what I would like to see: 1: James Shields 2: Scott Baker 3: Shaun Marcum/Jeremy Guthrie/Joe Blanton 4: Scott Diamond 5: Internal candidate (Liam Hendriks/Kyle Gibson/Samuel Deduno/Brian Duensing) How’s that? Think there’s any real chance of trading for a strong starter like Buehrle or Shields? [@christopherokey] More so this year than in previous years. I believe the front office is under some pressure from ownership to improve the team in order to avoid seeing a historic decline in revenue during the first five seasons of a new ballpark. Now, I do not believe these to be Steinbrenner-esque directives (“Go out and get be the best-damn pitcher available, money is no object.”) from ownership but Terry Ryan will likely wind up trading a long-time Twin (Denard Span, possibly) and/or someone from the farm system in order to get that piece. Of course, it also matters too what the opposing teams thinks their commodities are worth in return. As much as people like to think the Rays need to unload Shields, they are already shaving off a substantial portion of their payroll (upwards of $20 million), so there is not a need to jettison the pitchers who has thrown the third-most innings in the last three seasons. Rays will likely be looking for a solid return for Shields who has a reasonable $10.25 million left on his contract in addition to a $12 million 2014 team option. I personally like the idea of a Shields acquisition (as you can see by my prediction above) but I just don’t know if the Twins have enough or are willing to part with enough to get him. On the other hand, Buehrle, who has been amazingly consistent and durable for his career, could come less of a ransom than Shields. However, the Marlins have him locked in through 2015 and -- while he is owed a reasonable $11 million in 2013 -- he has $18 million and $19 million coming to him in 2014 and 2015, respectively, as he enters his late-30s. I’m not sure the Twins want to trade away a prime asset for those latter years. Why does Mauer hate hitting home runs? [@DanaWessel] Like most real Minnesotans, Joe Mauer would love to put his head down and just go about his business without all the hoopla. Home runs clearly put undue attention on him while circling the bases from all those cheering fans at the game. Real Minnesotans like Mauer would prefer to slap singles and avoid the showboating. In reality, there is a lot that goes why the sudden spike in 2009 and the complete inability to poke a few shots in to the stands every now and then. First is the external factor of the ballparks which played a significant role in both the increase and the decline. At the Metrodome in 2009 Mauer was feasting on the front row of the left field bleacher seats – hitting 16 of his 28 home runs in that direction. When the Twins moved to Target Field, the outdoor elements and dimensions became extremely restrictive for that kind of power. A ball hit to the right-center gap or center field has difficulty leaving the park. Secondly, his on-going knee issues have undoubtedly drained some power, reducing the amount of drive produced from his lower-half. One interesting note: three of Mauer’s home runs this year have been right down the right field line, not far off of the foul pole. Only one of his home runs dating back to 2008 had been in that region. Perhaps he is starting to figure out what needs to be done in order to hit home runs at Target Field. With another offseason to heal and the additional time away from catching could equate to more “dingers” in 2013. That said don’t expect a big jump, maybe 15 at the most next year. That’s not what most fans want to hear, but Mauer still provides plenty of value with his ability to avoid making outs in over 40% of his plate appearances (one of four hitters in the league this year to do so). Why do former Twins do better outside of the Twins system? (Dickey, Hardy, Lohse, etc) [@brandon_mack] I don’t think this is necessarily true. Yes, there are some players who realize their potential after leaving the organization but it is not because of something the team is or is not doing with these players. Most of the time it the improvement is up to the individual not the organization. What’s more is that in the case of the three players you named, other organizations could also claim the same thing. In the case of R.A. Dickey, he was still very much attempting to refine his knuckleball – a pitch he had just picked up two seasons before arriving to the Twins. He did not have his mastery of knuck then, rarely getting opponents to chase the pitch out of the strike zone or induce silly-looking swings. Both the Rangers and the Brewers gave up on Dickey. J.J. Hardy was not completely healthy (which may or may not have been a testament to the training staff) and he did not focus on pulling the ball (which may or may not have been hitting coach related). When he got to Baltimore, he got healthy, got focused on turning on pitches and was in an environment that was more conducive to hitting home runs. With Lohse, both the Reds and the Phillies had Lohse without reaping the same benefits that the Cardinals just had with his 2012 season. In short, I do not believe there is some internal issues that is causing the Twins to fail to identify future performance – at least, no more so than any other team. Who is the best long-term option at 1B? Morneau, Parmelee or other. [@MikeAmundsen12] With Justin Morneau in his early 30’s and teeming with various injuries, it’s not him. Hulking first baseman with injury tendencies do not age well – in fact it typically accelerates. Take Travis Hafner, for example. Until the age of 30, Pronk was having an outstanding career and even receiving MVP votes. After 30, his big body began to breakdown rapidly and frequently, resulting in a significant decline in his numbers: Age 25-30: 112 games per year, .290/.393/.552, 142 HRs Age 31-35: 86 games per year, .259/.353/.436, 59 HRs Because of that, I do not see the Twins retaining Morneau beyond his current contract. Parmelee is still young, intriguing but is unproven over the course of an entire season at the major league level. His 2012 season at Rochester -- one in which he had the league’s second-highest isolated power average (minimum 250 plate appearances) – raising eyebrows that he can develop into a player with some legit power. As Terry Ryan said in the Offseason Handbook, the Twins appear committed to putting Parmelee in the lineup somewhere this year. It may be in right to begin with, but after next season, he could be the team’s first baseman for the next several years. Of course, the real key to the Twins long-term plans at first base will be Mauer. Already seeing some time at first, he has looked comfortable at the defensive-side of the position and could eventually be there for the duration of his contract once squatting is out of the question. Who are the number one suitors for [Denard] Span? Does Gibson start the season with the big league club? [@dropshotbob] It looks like the Rays maybe the top suitors for Span. Tampa has not outright expressed interest, but Span is certainly a logical fit, what with his good defense, good plate discipline and good contract, plus, because B.J. Upton is likely to leave via free agency, Span is almost a natural target. If he doesn’t end up there, Atlanta is another team looking for center field help. Unless something happens to Kyle Gibson between now and spring training, he’s likely on an inside track to start the season with the Twins – probably in the bullpen where the team can limit his innings and monitor his progress as he adapts to major league hitters and wraps his head around pitching in double-decker stadiums. If Buxton doesn’t pan out as a positional player, chance #Twins try him as a pitcher? Reports were mid-hi 90’s in HS. [@Aaron_jenkins] This topic has come up with Aaron Hicks as well, who purportedly threw in the low 90s in high school like Buxton. So far, there are no indications that Buxton is headed for a bust – after all, he was both the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League’s number one prospect overall as an 18-year-old. However, if for whatever reason, he winds up unable to climb up the system as a hitter, I would definitely want the Twins to consider seeing if he can be converted to a pitcher. In fact, any and all positional prospects who have an arm should be given the opportunity to see if they can throw off a mound before being given their walking papers. In a piece at Deadspin.com, Jack Dickey spoke to St Louis Cardinals’ farm director John Vuch and that organizations methods for dealing with prospects with great arms who end up unable to catch on as a hitter: How are my Red Sox gonna look next year? [@MinnesotaRonin] Much like the Twins, the 2012 Red Sox had extensive troubles with their pitching staff – at least in the earned runs department. Boston allowed 754 earned runs, finishing one behind the Twins in that category and third most in the American League. And, like the Twins, things didn’t quite work out as planned, either. Two of their starters, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, had down years. Lester’s season was much more unexpected as the lefty had emerged as the team’s number one-type arm but a decline in strikeouts and an increase in his average on balls in play resulted in more runs. Josh Beckett’s fastball velocity dropped from 93.1 in 2011 to 91.4 in 2012 which opponents made much better contact on. So they wind up dishing out 94 innings to guys like Aaron Cook, who never met a bat he couldn’t hit. In fact, Cook’s 4.9% strikeout rate was the lowest among any starter with a minimum of 90 innings dating since the Mariners’ Glenn Abbott posted the same rate in 1979. But, unlike the Twins, the Red Sox have a ton of financial freedom – and that gives them the ability to fix things quick. In addition to an already high revenue stream, thanks to the unloading of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (and I suppose Nick Punto too), this has freed up approximately $60 million of payroll to rectify the pitching problem, grab an outfield bat and perhaps bail out the auto industry as well. So far, the Sox have been tied to a bevy of free agent including Dan Haren and Scott Baker among others, who would go along with the existing arms of Lester, Buccholz, Felix Doubront and John Lackey. And rumor is the Sox are looking at former Twin Torii Hunter as well. By the way, if you would like to participate in the next round of questions, follow me on Twitter (@OverTheBaggy) and fire me any or all Twins/baseball-related inquiries.
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If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry.
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If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry.
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The rising cost of relief pitching
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2605[/ATTACH]If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry. -
The worst kept secret in baseball is that teams need an abundance of starting pitching. Like crack, you can never have enough. Also, pitching, like crack, can be an expensive endeavor – particularly when you need a lot of it. And this is exactly the position the Twins are in so said the team’s general manager, Terry Ryan, during his offseason apology tour. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In a recent interview with Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, Ryan admitted that his financial resources may keep the team from chasing the Zack Greinke’s of the world (shocker), but the team will be scouring the market for top of the rotation help. (The interview’s entirety can be found the Offseason Handbook in which Ryan expands on this topic and many more.) If the team is looking to maximize the return on a smaller investment, one such arm Ryan should be zeroing in on in the free agent market is the 30-year-old Shaun Marcum. If you were looking just at the radar gun, you would likely be nonplussed at Marcum’s fastball. Indeed, his 87.2-mph fastball over his career would incite plenty to label him yet another soft-tossing pitcher. After all, he shares the same career fastball velocity as one flame-thrower Bruce Chen. Recognizing his weakness Marcum uses his fastball extremely sparingly. Dating back to 2007, outside of the knuckleballers, only Roy Halladay (33.8%) has used his fastball less frequently than Marcum (38.2%). Once he gets ahead in the count – which we has more often than not – hitters have a better odds of seeing Halley’s Comet than his fastball. And it is his plethora of off-speed and breaking pitches that makes him so impossible to make contact against. Again, since 2007, Marcum has registered the sixth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball behind such luminaries as Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. That’s right: He missed more bats than Justin Verlander. Now, this has not translated into a ton of strikeouts but it shows that he is consistently confounding opponents. What makes Marcum so effective in spite of the town ball-level velocity is his ability to keep the fastball away off the plate while mixing in a variety of pitches and speeds that make hitters’ heads’ spin. Take a look at this year’s heat map of his pitch location: To both sides, he served every down and away. The reason this is noteworthy is because this area is perhaps the most difficult for a hitter to square up and certainly one of the hardest areas to pull consistently. Furthermore, Marcum’s ability to change speeds to the mid-70s to 80 back to the upper 80s on almost any pitch keeps opponents from cheating on the outer-half. As we have seen at Target Field, it can reward hitters who can yank pitches into the right and left field stands thus having someone who keeps the ball away from those looking to do heavy damage is in the Twins’ best interest. In short, his ability to miss bats and keep hitters from pulling the ball with lethal intent would play very favorably as a potentially number two starter in Minnesota. So, what are the odds the Twins could end up with him? The Royals, Cubs and Blue Jays all may be landing places for Marcum. In fact, in an interview with a Toronto radio station, Marcum expressed interest in returning to the Blue Jays where he had been a member of the organization from when he was drafted in 2003 until being traded to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Marcum said that he would welcome a homecoming to his original team in part because of the coaching and training staff which he had a strong relationship. Presumably, Marcum’s past injury history (Tommy John in 2008) and recent flare up in Milwaukee this year (right elbow tenderness with required a trip to the 60-day DL) will likely drop his stock among all suitors. Even the Brewers, who have seen him up close and are just a year removed from a 200-inning season, have maintained radio silence with him and his agent. This probably does not bode well for his immediate financial future. As a result, his price range is likely going to fall towards more of a one-year plus incentives in order to rebuild his value while still in his early 30s (he’ll be 31 in December), at which point he can explore a longer, more lucrative deal on the market. The Twins have plenty of holes to fill and, sad to admit, a finite budget, therefore a one-year deal for a pitcher of Shaun Marcum’s caliber would be in Terry Ryan’s best interest.
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Shawn Marcum could be a fit for the Twins
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2551[/ATTACH]The worst kept secret in baseball is that teams need an abundance of starting pitching. Like crack, you can never have enough. Also, pitching, like crack, can be an expensive endeavor – particularly when you need a lot of it. And this is exactly the position the Twins are in so said the team’s general manager, Terry Ryan, during his offseason apology tour. In a recent interview with Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, Ryan admitted that his financial resources may keep the team from chasing the Zack Greinke’s of the world (shocker), but the team will be scouring the market for top of the rotation help. (The interview’s entirety can be found the Offseason Handbook in which Ryan expands on this topic and many more.) If the team is looking to maximize the return on a smaller investment, one such arm Ryan should be zeroing in on in the free agent market is the 30-year-old Shawn Marcum. If you were looking just at the radar gun, you would likely be nonplussed at Marcum’s fastball. Indeed, his 87.2-mph fastball over his career would incite plenty to label him yet another soft-tossing pitcher. After all, he shares the same career fastball velocity as one flame-thrower Bruce Chen. Recognizing his weakness Marcum uses his fastball extremely sparingly. Dating back to 2007, outside of the knuckleballers, only Roy Halladay (33.8%) has used his fastball less frequently than Marcum (38.2%). Once he gets ahead in the count – which we has more often than not – hitters have a better odds of seeing Halley’s Comet than his fastball. And it is his plethora of off-speed and breaking pitches that makes him so impossible to make contact against. Again, since 2007, Marcum has registered the sixth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball behind such luminaries as Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. That’s right: He missed more bats than Justin Verlander. Now, this has not translated into a ton of strikeouts but it shows that he is consistently confounding opponents. What makes Marcum so effective in spite of the town ball-level velocity is his ability to keep the fastball away off the plate while mixing in a variety of pitches and speeds that make hitters’ heads’ spin. Take a look at this year’s heat map of his pitch location: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2550[/ATTACH] To both sides, he served every down and away. The reason this is noteworthy is because this area is perhaps the most difficult for a hitter to square up and certainly one of the hardest areas to pull consistently. Furthermore, Marcum’s ability to change speeds to the mid-70s to 80 back to the upper 80s on almost any pitch keeps opponents from cheating on the outer-half. As we have seen at Target Field, it can reward hitters who can yank pitches into the right and left field stands thus having someone who keeps the ball away from those looking to do heavy damage is in the Twins’ best interest. In short, his ability to miss bats and keep hitters from pulling the ball with lethal intent would play very favorably as a potentially number two starter in Minnesota. So, what are the odds the Twins could end up with him? The Royals, Cubs and Blue Jays all may be landing places for Marcum. In fact, in an interview with a Toronto radio station, Marcum expressed interest in returning to the Blue Jays where he had been a member of the organization from when he was drafted in 2003 until being traded to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Marcum said that he would welcome a homecoming to his original team in part because of the coaching and training staff which he had a strong relationship. Presumably, Marcum’s past injury history (Tommy John in 2008) and recent flare up in Milwaukee this year (right elbow tenderness with required a trip to the 60-day DL) will likely drop his stock among all suitors. Even the Brewers, who have seen him up close and are just a year removed from a 200-inning season, have maintained radio silence with him and his agent. This probably does not bode well for his immediate financial future. As a result, his price range is likely going to fall towards more of a one-year plus incentives in order to rebuild his value while still in his early 30s (he’ll be 31 in December), at which point he can explore a longer, more lucrative deal on the market. The Twins have plenty of holes to fill and, sad to admit, a finite budget, therefore a one-year deal for a pitcher of Shawn Marcum’s caliber would be in Terry Ryan’s best interest. -
As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.