Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3475[/ATTACH]Don’t look now, but Samuel Deduno has not walked a batter yet this spring. I know, I know: It has been five meaningless spring innings. Give it time, right? And, sure, four of those innings were against Spain in the World Baseball Classic, a team whose lineup was littered with players lacking even minor league deals. Pump the brakes, Parker. The reality is that last year he handed out more free passes than the gals standing out front of Dream Girls gentlemen’s club. With 121 innings split between Rochester and the Twins, he walked 75, or 14% of all the hitters he faced. Five measly innings of not throwing four balls in a given at-bat is not going to change that fact. His inability to work ahead of hitters put Deduno in many precarious situations in 2012. A whopping 8% of his match-ups resulted in 3-0 counts (league average being 5%). Overall, hitters knew his reputation and refrained from chasing much of anything outside of the strike zone. According to Fangraphs.com Deduno got opponents to chase after just 23.5% of all out-of-zone offerings – the second lowest rate in baseball with a minimum of 70 innings pitched. Here’s the catch: Despite being behind hitters frequently, he was not damaged significantly. He walked plenty, but teams were unable to put the ball in play sharply. Thanks to his incredible movement of his fastball which had an MLB-best 67% ground ball rate, the opposition showed they simply could not square up. Even in situations where they should have an advantage, they were unsuccessful. While the rest of the American League’s pitching staffs had a .299/.465/.513 batting line when behind in the count, Deduno produced a walk-heavy yet respectable .244/.524/.389 line. With his nearly unhittable fastball (not to mention decent curve), Deduno has the foundations to be a very good pitcher. The giant elephant on his chest is his incapability to throw the ball over the plate consistently. Behind the small sample size, there may be some reason why he is throwing the ball better. Look how free and easy his motion is – particularly his finish - while in the World Baseball Classic compared to last season: file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/JHageman/My%20Documents/Downloads/Sam2.gif file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/JHageman/My%20Documents/Downloads/Sam3.gif file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/JHageman/My%20Documents/Downloads/Sam4.gif file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/JHageman/My%20Documents/Downloads/Sam5.gif file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/JHageman/My%20Documents/Downloads/Sam6.gif Notice the “Francisco Liriano” twirl with his back leg after his follow through. He is finishing higher with his upper body. This is the follow through of someone who is not over-thinking, not aiming, not over-throwing on every pitch. He’s just letting it fly, as they say. Maybe that is all that it takes with him to achieve that next level. Then again, who is to say that this will carry over to the season? At 29 years old, he’s had numerous opportunities to try to get his walk rate in order and failed. Frankly, Deduno represents a fringe player; one whose skill set can get him near the top level but never fully entrench him into a starting rotation. That said, it is still important for a an organization to have a pitcher like Deduno available. As Russell Charlton’s research at Baseball Prospectus showed that pitchers who have had previous injuries have high odds of a reoccurrence. For example, pitchers who have had elbow injuries have had a 27.4% chance of re-injury. That means three-fifths of the projected rotation - Vance Worley, Scott Diamond and Mike Pelfrey – stand the likelihood of spending time on the DL in 2013. If Deduno is able to harness his control, he could be a valuable contributor in some capacity. Deduno will get the start for the Dominican Republic on Thursday, taking on a far superior Team USA lineup. Watch his command, walk total and scrutinize his mechanics – if he is throwing free and easy, it could translate to a rough day for Team USA in the WBC.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3413[/ATTACH]Liam Hendriks could very well be one of the five starting pitchers the Minnesota Twins take north when camp breaks at the end of the month. He has the minor league numbers to show that he capable of retiring batters. He just needs to do the same against major league hitters. One area he needs to improve on in 2013 is achieving better result when he releases a slider from his fingertips. Coming off the season he had last year, no one would blame him from shelving the pitch indefinitely. Just under 200 times, Hendriks twirled his slider towards home. He retired a batter on that pitch in less than 5% of those occasions – the lowest rate in baseball with a minimum of 100 pitches in 2012. On seven instances, that slider became a home run. Admittedly, six other pitchers managed to surrender more jack jobs on the slide piece but those pitchers also threw the breaking ball at least 300 more times than Hendriks did. Those are some stomach-churning results. A 2012 interview with MILB.com’s Andrew Pentis may help illuminate Hendriks’ struggles with the pitch. According to the interview, the then Rochester Red Wing told Pentis that he had acquired the slider in 2008 from former reliever Graeme Lloyd, another hurler of Australian descent who was coaching down under. Hendriks said that the slider is his “fourth pitch”, behind his two fastballs and change, and he likes to throw it in on lefties and away to righties. When it comes to the latter, therein lies the problem. Last year I examined some of Hendriks’ tendencies and video to find that his closed landing foot causes an inability to hit the outer-half of the plate to righties as effectively as he would hitting the inside corner. Here we see his heat map of where his slider crossed the plate: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3414[/ATTACH] While it appears that he is trying to work away with his slider -- as evidenced by his sporadic spotting down and away -- the majority of his offerings fall within the zone, specifically in the dreaded “middle-middle” location. These are easily feasted upon and have led to a .341 average against (15-for-44) with seven of those hits becoming home runs in 2012. His second start of the spring, a three-inning affair, showed promise that his future remains bright. Following the game, Hendriks told reporters that he had been working on his mechanics: Hendriks continued by saying he did want to remain closed “a little bit” to add to the deception. That may not be a bad thing. After all, it may be a part of this deception which allowed him to maintain a reverse split: a .786 OPS facing lefties and a .998 OPS facing righties. But the improvement in the motion could be enough to allow for better placement of his slider – something that he told reporters felt better after his second spring start. With sustained success in the majors his ultimate goal, finding a stable breaking offering to throw to right-handers will be somewhat critical. If this mechanical adjustment can help facilitate that, then he may be able to replicate some of his minor league triumphs at the big league level.

Vance Worley is poised for his second unofficial start for the Minnesota Twins today. Compared to the other recent additions to the rotation, the 25-year-old right-hander’s first outing in the Grapefruit League was very positive. He worked two innings, allowed a pair of hits but didn’t allow any runs. Feedback from his new manager was good. “I like him. He looks like a gunslinger with that windup,” Ron Gardenhire told reporters following the team’s 5-4 victory over the Pirates. “It looks like he’s ready to draw a pistol. I always liked guys like that.” Of course, first impressions are sort of Worley’s thing. It is meeting people a second and third time that the newest member of the team needs to work on, as you will see. Heading into the 2012 season Worley grew concerned that the rest of the league was going to catch on to his sinker, a pitch that had been wildly successful for him in 2011 when he finished 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 131.2 innings and took third in the Rookie of the Year voting. “I need to develop a change-up this spring so I can have it ready for this season,” Worley toldYahoo.com’s Dave Brown, “The whole league knows I throw a sinker now, and my cutter is OK; it can be good at times. But definitely I need a third pitch.” True to his word, Worley set out to install the change as his third pitch. Up to that point in his career, his version of the change was the standard “circle” grip, named such because when the pitcher’s thumb and index finger make the “OK” symbol and the ball is thrown with the aid of the three remaining fingers. Still, the results on the pitch in 2011 were lackluster. Because he threw this change at a high velocity (averaging 84.7 mph according to Fangraphs.com) he had little separation between that and his sinker and cutter (thrown on average at 90 mph). Opponents smacked the change around to the tune of a .309 average. Even coming off his solid rookie campaign, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee reiterated the need for Worley to add an additional pitch. “Hitters will adjust after seeing him,” he told the media. “He has to adjust, too.” Worley had the good fortune of being employed alongside one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. Just a few years prior, Halladay learned a new change-up grip that helped win him the National League Cy Young Away in 2010. Rather than the circle grip he split his ring and middle fingers out wide on what would have been a prototypical two-seam fastball grip, a less wide version of the split-finger fastball. What the former Cy Young winner did was develop a “split-change” that had heavy sink and enough speed variation to make it extremely effective. In camp in 2012, Worley hoped to come away with the new version of his change-up but despite the fact he had shaved a tad off of the velocity (down to 83 mph), he still did not feel comfortable throwing it frequently throughout the year. Nevertheless, Worley had success despite not missing bats was due to his deceptive delivery andoutstanding movement on his sinker/two-seamer. He froze opponents regularly, ringing up a baseball-high 57% of his strikeouts looking. What’s more is that umpires (with some help from his catcher) gave him nearly 10% of his pitches not swung at and thrown OUTSIDE of the strike zone a strike. That’s well above the league average of 7%. It appears, at least judging by the statistics, that opponents figured out not to be fooled as much by the movement or deceptive delivery the second or third time around. Worley’s splits may show signs of how he was affected by his shallow arsenal. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s pitching splits, Worley labored as the lineup continued to turnover in 2012. After the first time through the order, the spectacled one held the opposition to a 620 OPS coupled with a 22% strikeout rate. This success would slide significantly as the game progressed. The second time through the OPS increased to 863 while his strikeout rate dropped to 17%. The third time around, the floodgates would open as his OPS allowed spiked to 971 while his strikeout rate came in at 13%. With a lack of a solid third pitch, was the shifting numbers a result of opponents zeroing in on his sinker and cutter? While those segmentations are small sample sizes, the OPS allowed in the second and third time through the order were noticeably higher than the league average. As Worley said prior to the 2012 season, he was in need of an additional pitch. He threw a solid cutter, one that had the highest percentage of swing-and-misses among his repertoire last season, but that has been below average among all pitch types in that department. There’s probably some hesitation as to why Worley had mistrust in his change. It is a “feel” pitch and, given the fact that he allowed three of the 12 home runs surrendered on the pitch while throwing it less than 8% of the time. Look at his intended location versus his actual location for this change when facing Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alverez: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1362146832_Worley_Spot1.PNG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Worley_Result1.PNG Yes. That ball went way far, far away. The reason was that instead of down and away as desired, this slow mover went middle-in and allowed Alverez to nearly send that pitch back to the other side of the state of Pennsylvania. If a pitcher does not have confidence to hit his spots consistently, that pitcher may withhold throwing that pitch. And it appears that Worley still does not have faith in that offering either. “My changeup is usually just terrible all around, all the time,” Worley told reporters after his first outing this spring. “So if I can not use it, I won’t use it.” True, Worley only faced eight batters so he did not have the lineup turn on him and likely did not need to show them anything else. Yet switching to the American League, where, thanks to the DH, lineups are more robust, it should accelerate the need to refine that pitch. If he is able to hone that pitch, he may have better success against his opponent that second and third time through the order in 2013.

Vance Worley is poised for his second unofficial start for the Minnesota Twins today. Compared to the other recent additions to the rotation, the 25-year-old right-hander’s first outing in the Grapefruit League was very positive. He worked two innings, allowed a pair of hits but didn’t allow any runs. Feedback from his new manager was good. “I like him. He looks like a gunslinger with that windup,” Ron Gardenhire told reporters following the team’s 5-4 victory over the Pirates. “It looks like he’s ready to draw a pistol. I always liked guys like that.” Of course, first impressions are sort of Worley’s thing. It is meeting people a second and third time that the newest member of the team needs to work on, as you will see. Heading into the 2012 season Worley grew concerned that the rest of the league was going to catch on to his sinker, a pitch that had been wildly successful for him in 2011 when he finished 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 131.2 innings and took third in the Rookie of the Year voting. “I need to develop a change-up this spring so I can have it ready for this season,” Worley toldYahoo.com’s Dave Brown, “The whole league knows I throw a sinker now, and my cutter is OK; it can be good at times. But definitely I need a third pitch.” True to his word, Worley set out to install the change as his third pitch. Up to that point in his career, his version of the change was the standard “circle” grip, named such because when the pitcher’s thumb and index finger make the “OK” symbol and the ball is thrown with the aid of the three remaining fingers. Still, the results on the pitch in 2011 were lackluster. Because he threw this change at a high velocity (averaging 84.7 mph according to Fangraphs.com) he had little separation between that and his sinker and cutter (thrown on average at 90 mph). Opponents smacked the change around to the tune of a .309 average. Even coming off his solid rookie campaign, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee reiterated the need for Worley to add an additional pitch. “Hitters will adjust after seeing him,” he told the media. “He has to adjust, too.” Worley had the good fortune of being employed alongside one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. Just a few years prior, Halladay learned a new change-up grip that helped win him the National League Cy Young Away in 2010. Rather than the circle grip he split his ring and middle fingers out wide on what would have been a prototypical two-seam fastball grip, a less wide version of the split-finger fastball. What the former Cy Young winner did was develop a “split-change” that had heavy sink and enough speed variation to make it extremely effective. In camp in 2012, Worley hoped to come away with the new version of his change-up but despite the fact he had shaved a tad off of the velocity (down to 83 mph), he still did not feel comfortable throwing it frequently throughout the year. Nevertheless, Worley had success despite not missing bats was due to his deceptive delivery andoutstanding movement on his sinker/two-seamer. He froze opponents regularly, ringing up a baseball-high 57% of his strikeouts looking. What’s more is that umpires (with some help from his catcher) gave him nearly 10% of his pitches not swung at and thrown OUTSIDE of the strike zone a strike. That’s well above the league average of 7%. It appears, at least judging by the statistics, that opponents figured out not to be fooled as much by the movement or deceptive delivery the second or third time around. Worley’s splits may show signs of how he was affected by his shallow arsenal. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s pitching splits, Worley labored as the lineup continued to turnover in 2012. After the first time through the order, the spectacled one held the opposition to a 620 OPS coupled with a 22% strikeout rate. This success would slide significantly as the game progressed. The second time through the OPS increased to 863 while his strikeout rate dropped to 17%. The third time around, the floodgates would open as his OPS allowed spiked to 971 while his strikeout rate came in at 13%. With a lack of a solid third pitch, was the shifting numbers a result of opponents zeroing in on his sinker and cutter? While those segmentations are small sample sizes, the OPS allowed in the second and third time through the order were noticeably higher than the league average. As Worley said prior to the 2012 season, he was in need of an additional pitch. He threw a solid cutter, one that had the highest percentage of swing-and-misses among his repertoire last season, but that has been below average among all pitch types in that department. There’s probably some hesitation as to why Worley had mistrust in his change. It is a “feel” pitch and, given the fact that he allowed three of the 12 home runs surrendered on the pitch while throwing it less than 8% of the time. Look at his intended location versus his actual location for this change when facing Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alverez: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1362146832_Worley_Spot1.PNG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Worley_Result1.PNG Yes. That ball went way far, far away. The reason was that instead of down and away as desired, this slow mover went middle-in and allowed Alverez to nearly send that pitch back to the other side of the state of Pennsylvania. If a pitcher does not have confidence to hit his spots consistently, that pitcher may withhold throwing that pitch. And it appears that Worley still does not have faith in that offering either. “My changeup is usually just terrible all around, all the time,” Worley told reporters after his first outing this spring. “So if I can not use it, I won’t use it.” True, Worley only faced eight batters so he did not have the lineup turn on him and likely did not need to show them anything else. Yet switching to the American League, where, thanks to the DH, lineups are more robust, it should accelerate the need to refine that pitch. If he is able to hone that pitch, he may have better success against his opponent that second and third time through the order in 2013.

Ryan Pressly’s odds of making the bullpen when the Minnesota Twins break camp in April appear somewhere between slim and none. On a liberal guess, there are likely three spots open and two of those may already belong to Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak. The remaining vacancy? That’s competition between a Twins’ bullpen incumbent in Casey Fein, baseball’s relief innings leader last season in Josh Roenicke, and two former major leaguers trying to re-establish their careers in Rich Harden and Rafael Perez. So where does that leave a 24-year-old Rule 5 draft pick who has fewer than 30 innings of experience above Double-A? Probably with a one-way ticket back to Pawtucket with all the clam chowder he can eat waiting for him. Because of the Rule 5 draft’s rules, if Pressly is not placed on the 25-man roster, he must be offered back to Boston. However, there is another route Pressly could go to remain within the Twins’ system and that is if the team pulls a trade similar to the one that landed them Scott Diamond from the Braves. In order to do so, the Twins will need to place him through the waivers, exposing him to all the MLB teams, prior to negotiating a trade with the Red Sox. Would Pressly be worth it? There are plenty of people within the organization who firmly believe in his capabilities as a major league contributor. When the Twins selected him in early December out of the Red Sox organization, plenty of officials were already infatuated with his stuff. The Twins director of scouting Vern Followell, who followed Pressly since high school, said that he envisioned the right-hander to be a solid back-of-the-bullpen arm. Early in camp, manager Ron Gardenhire was also keen on the youngster, noting that while Pressly was a bit erratic, he was impressed by his fastball. What’s more is that Pressly was facing the meat of the big club’s order during his live BP sessions including Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, and Trevor Plouffe. Pressly works with a three pitch repertoire that is comprised of a mid-90s two-seam fastball, exquisite tilt on his curve and a good changeup. With those three pitches, the Sox had designs of making him a starter. While he did well with his secondary offerings, Pressly’s fastball often got him into trouble and he wound up with a high number of free passes issued. What is interesting about Pressly is that he make opposite handed hitters – lefties – miss more often than same-sided ones. This is not usually true as right-handed pitchers are much better at striking out right-handed batter thanks to the ability to hide the ball better and spin pitches away from their swing. Given the , one would assume he would thrive against righties but that has not been the case. Still, in 2012 – his first year in the bullpen – Pressly struck out 14% of right-handed batters faced but yielded a 25% strike out mark against lefties thanks to a strong running fastball and changeup combination. Take a look at this clip of his changeup thrown to Justin Morneau this week: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1361543132_Pressly.gif (Video courtesy of MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger) According to the StarTribune’s Phil Miller, this incited the Twins first baseman to describe the pitch as “nasty” afterwards. Pressly’s changeup has a strong bite down and away from the left-handed swing. Based on this action, one can easily conclude how he is able to achieve such a high percentage of strikeouts against the opposite hand. Competition may ultimately keep Pressly out of the hunt for the final bullpen spot but his strengths as a reliever should not go unnoticed this spring. Keep an eye on his ability to command his fastball. If he impresses enough, he may be given an opportunity to remain with the organization.

Ryan Pressly’s odds of making the bullpen when the Minnesota Twins break camp in April appear somewhere between slim and none. On a liberal guess, there are likely three spots open and two of those may already belong to Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak. The remaining vacancy? That’s competition between a Twins’ bullpen incumbent in Casey Fein, baseball’s relief innings leader last season in Josh Roenicke, and two former major leaguers trying to re-establish their careers in Rich Harden and Rafael Perez. So where does that leave a 24-year-old Rule 5 draft pick who has fewer than 30 innings of experience above Double-A? Probably with a one-way ticket back to Pawtucket with all the clam chowder he can eat waiting for him. Because of the Rule 5 draft’s rules, if Pressly is not placed on the 25-man roster, he must be offered back to Boston. However, there is another route Pressly could go to remain within the Twins’ system and that is if the team pulls a trade similar to the one that landed them Scott Diamond from the Braves. In order to do so, the Twins will need to place him through the waivers, exposing him to all the MLB teams, prior to negotiating a trade with the Red Sox. Would Pressly be worth it? There are plenty of people within the organization who firmly believe in his capabilities as a major league contributor. When the Twins selected him in early December out of the Red Sox organization, plenty of officials were already infatuated with his stuff. The Twins director of scouting Vern Followell, who followed Pressly since high school, said that he envisioned the right-hander to be a solid back-of-the-bullpen arm. Early in camp, manager Ron Gardenhire was also keen on the youngster, noting that while Pressly was a bit erratic, he was impressed by his fastball. What’s more is that Pressly was facing the meat of the big club’s order during his live BP sessions including Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, and Trevor Plouffe. Pressly works with a three pitch repertoire that is comprised of a mid-90s two-seam fastball, exquisite tilt on his curve and a good changeup. With those three pitches, the Sox had designs of making him a starter. While he did well with his secondary offerings, Pressly’s fastball often got him into trouble and he wound up with a high number of free passes issued. What is interesting about Pressly is that he make opposite handed hitters – lefties – miss more often than same-sided ones. This is not usually true as right-handed pitchers are much better at striking out right-handed batter thanks to the ability to hide the ball better and spin pitches away from their swing. Given the , one would assume he would thrive against righties but that has not been the case. Still, in 2012 – his first year in the bullpen – Pressly struck out 14% of right-handed batters faced but yielded a 25% strike out mark against lefties thanks to a strong running fastball and changeup combination. Take a look at this clip of his changeup thrown to Justin Morneau this week: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1361543132_Pressly.gif (Video courtesy of MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger) According to the StarTribune’s Phil Miller, this incited the Twins first baseman to describe the pitch as “nasty” afterwards. Pressly’s changeup has a strong bite down and away from the left-handed swing. Based on this action, one can easily conclude how he is able to achieve such a high percentage of strikeouts against the opposite hand. Competition may ultimately keep Pressly out of the hunt for the final bullpen spot but his strengths as a reliever should not go unnoticed this spring. Keep an eye on his ability to command his fastball. If he impresses enough, he may be given an opportunity to remain with the organization.

Last year, as Brian Dozier’s offensive season sank deeper in the abyss, Andrew Bryz-Gornia at TwinkieTown pointed out how many different stances Dozier displayed. While the frequent changes in his batting stance acted as a visual barometer to his overall hitting struggles – the constant alteration a sign that he never was comfortable at the plate – his front side mechanics may have been one of the sources that led to his poor numbers. In 2012, Dozier’s swing contained a front foot landing which often remained closed at the point of contact but then was followed up with a delayed and inconsistent heel spin. What was happening was that Dozier’s upper body was pulling off of the pitch or spinning off the ball. Furthermore, the lack of a foot spin may have been a hint that Dozier’s overall mechanics were not entirely fundamentally correct and that he was not maximizing his hip contributions. The results were a high percentage of pitches pulled. Early on, this played to Dozier’s advantage however, when advanced scouts recognized this, he was pitched away more. Unable to make the in-season adjustment, Dozier’s numbers declined and the changes in his stance increased as frustration mounted while the core problem remained. Now in Fort Myers and reunited with his former minor league hitting coach, Tom Brunansky, Dozier has worked on improving his mechanics. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger captured video of Dozier working in the cage this week with Brunansky providing instructions (nothing of interest, simple baseball jargon like “wait for yours”, “little bingo” and “how now brown cow”). What is shown is Dozier’s swing and the Twins middle infielder has solidified a few things on the front end: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3301[/ATTACH] Admittedly, this is cage work, in Florida, with a pitcher who is probably throwing 75%. That said, in these swings we see a firm front foot that opens with the swing – not after – and remains in place rather than having it fall off the towards the third base line. This is an indication that the hips and hands are working in unison and giving Dozier a more solid foundation to drive the ball. Likewise, with the added stability, that should give him the ability to better control the zone with his swing and drive a pitch on the outer-half to right field as opposed to turning it over to the left side of the infield. Even though he ultimately homers on this particular swing – a demonstration to his bat speed and strength – you can see that based on his front foot, he was not maximizing his hip rotation in his swing last year. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3302[/ATTACH] From the front view, notice how Josh Willingham’s strong hip rotation forces the front foot open (this is a trait shared by many power hitters in which the front foot rotates open with the swing): [ATTACH=CONFIG]3303[/ATTACH] With seven spring games expected to be broadcasted on Fox Sport North, keep an eye on Brian Dozier’s front leg during his swing.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3265[/ATTACH]Mike Pelfrey, or “the Big Pelf’ as he is called, towers at six feet, seven inches tall. Because of his substantial stature, it is likely that when Pelfrey starts saying that he will be ready to pitch by April this year, there is nary a person around to tell him otherwise. Even the Minnesota Twins figure that Pelfrey, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2011, will be ready by the opener, less than a year after the procedure. “If the season started tomorrow, I would have worked up to be ready at this point,” Pelfrey told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. “Realistically, after 7 ½ months, I threw 90 pitches to hitters, so I could pitch [now]. They told me the other day, ‘No restrictions. You’re on the schedule with everybody else.’ That’s what I wanted.” He has reportedly thrown 40 mound sessions since the surgery and has zero setbacks thus far. There is no question that he is doing everything possible to be ready by April 1. An interesting comparison to Pelfrey’s development will be to monitor how the Chicago Cubs prepare for former Twin Scott Baker’s return from the same injury. When Baker was signed the past November, the Cubs raved about his progress. They were teeming with optimism that Baker would be a key component of the team’s success right away, mostly based on his rehabilitation. “There are no certainties with rehabs, but we spent quite a lot of time on the medical (evaluation) and (looking into) his rehab,” said Chicago team president Theo Epstein. “It was described by our medical staff as an ideal Tommy John’s rehab, so far. Knock on wood. Everything has gone perfectly so far. He’s really attacked it in an ideal manner.” Fast forward to yesterday and Chicago’s field staff communicated a different message. Manager Dale Sveum said that the team was planning on “babying” him through spring training and that Baker had an “above-average” chance of missing the start of the regular season. What does Scott Baker’s timeline have to do with Mike Pelfrey? Baker had his Tommy John surgery almost two week prior to Pelfrey. Like Pelfrey, Baker’s rehab was thought to be going exceptionally well. He was throwing off of flat ground by August 8 and was throwing from more than 120 feet in September. In November, following his signing, the Cubs officials expressed adulation of his progress. During the time Baker began throwing again last August, Pelfrey was in Wichita where he played college ball. There, he helped coach an 18-year-old local team who was heading to a national tournament. Pelfrey took the opportunity to tell reporters that the medical staff and Mets’ organization had advised him to shoot for a May 2012 return based on the 12-month timeline post-surgery, but his own personal goal would be to be ready by opening day. By the middle of August last year, reports emerged that Pelfrey would be throwing on flat ground “soon.” Already he was few weeks behind Baker’s timeline but it appeared to be slipping further off target. When the Twins signed him in December, Pelfrey told reporters that he was confident that he would be 100% by opening day. "I'm on track for Jan. 15. So everything is going well," Pelfrey told ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin. "Tim Hudson came back in seven months (from Tommy John surgery)…I'll definitely be ready when spring training rolls around." True, Hudson came back quickly, but his actual recovery time was a bit longer than what Pelfrey relayed to the press. While he did return to pitch in the minors for a brief spell 10 months after his 2008 Tommy John surgery day, it wasn’t until 12 months after his surgery date that Hudson was throwing in the majors again – and even that was September work with the off-season ahead of him to rest. Essentially, Hudson jumped into the marathon near the end of the finish line whereas Pelfrey is expecting to run up to the starting line of the race and toss 180-plus innings. Locally, fans will remember Joe Nathan’s slow return to form in 2011. Nathan received the gift of a new UCL in March 2010 and busted his butt to get back on the hill by the start of the 2011 season. Nathan said all the right things, just like Pelfrey: I don’t want to be babied, I feel great, etc. After a clean spring training, Nathan was brought to Minnesota in what turned out to be a premature decision. It took the Twins nearly two months of the season, three home runs, two blown saves and a 7.63 ERA, to realize that Nathan was not ready. He was sent to Rochester to break up some scar tissue and came back effective for the second-half of the season. What may be similar between Nathan and Pelfrey is that they shared an expiration date on their contracts where Baker has an option year with the Cubs – one plausible reason while Nathan and Pelfrey were so eager to push it while Baker and the Cubs are willing to ease up on the throttle. This week, Baker reportedly threw 40 pitches at 70 percent effort in response to the Cubs’ babying program. Meanwhile, early dispatches from Fort Myers suggest the new Twin one-upped the former Twin and has overtaken him in the race for the return. In his first bullpen session of the year, Pelfrey threw 50 pitches. There are plenty of reasons why Pelfrey may actually comeback quicker than expected. His size suggests that he can take pressure off his arm. His relatively low injury history may mean he is less injury prone in general. He may have X-Men DNA and heal freakishly fast like Adrian Peterson. This is to say, every individual repairs themselves differently and at different intervals. Still, research tells us that the time to return to form from Tommy John surgery is 12-to-18 months. Hard work and great genes may help Pelfrey target May – closer to the one-year anniversary of his new elbow – but anything earlier than that could be risking a setback (like Joe Nathan). The Twins may be supportive to the public of Pelfrey’s return but, at the same time, gathering insurance quietly such as signing left-hander Rafael Perez, someone assistant GM Rob Antony believes can be stretched out into a starter, to a minor league contract. Perez -- along with Rich Harden and in-house candidates like Liam Hendriks, Cole DeVries and Sam Deduno -- may be the safety net the front office is preparing in the event Pelfrey is not ready by April. At his age and his relatively low injury-risk in general, Mike Pelfrey is almost certain to rebound. Never say never but, if history has any indication, the likelihood of him pitching effectively in April appears low.

Age: 21 (DOB: 05/09/1991) 2012 Stats (A+/AA): .320/.388/.539, 17 HR, 98 RBI, 76 R, 4/9 SB ETA: 2013 [ATTACH=CONFIG]3243[/ATTACH] It has been a while since the Minnesota Twins had major league ready offensive talent in their farm system knocking on the door of the big club. Outfielder Oswaldo Arcia appears to be wiping his feet at the welcome mat. Of course, there are just a few more steps - and players - ahead of him. One of the few areas of surplus in the Twins’ organization has been center field talent. In addition to Denard Span and Ben Revere, looming at the upper levels were Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks. Behind those two is Byron Buxton, the 2012 number two overall draft choice. If one were monitoring the pipeline, it became clear that for one position, some players were either going to move out of the middle of the outfield or be moved out of the organization. The Twins front office cleared some room quickly when they dealt Span and Revere this offseason, opening up a vacancy in both center and right. While Benson and Hicks will audition for the role of center this spring, Chris Parmelee, a first baseman by trade but an outfielder by necessity, is the front-runner to start in right field. Parmelee’s tenure in right appears to be a less-than-permanent job placement if Arcia continues to club the ball as well as he has the past two seasons. Arcia’s progress through the pipeline was stymied in 2011 when in early May, pain in his throwing elbow called for clean-up surgery that sidelined him for two months. Coming off of a season in which he tore through Appalachian League pitching in 2010, this injury abbreviated what should have been his first full season. Undeterred, the Venezuelan outfielder continued where he left off the previous year and mashed his way from the Gulf Coast League to the Florida State League – with a brief stop off in the Midwest League. In all, he accumulated just over 300 plate appearances and posted a respectable .866 OPS as a 20-year-old. Asked to repeat the 2012 season back at Fort Myers, this gave Arcia some additional at-bats in the offensively-challenged Florida State League. For some, the FSL can be a humbling experience for young hitters. Between the heat, humidity, the size of the ballparks and the advanced college pitchers, players who were putting up eye-popping numbers in the rookie and low-A leagues are often brought back down to Earth upon landing in America’s coastal swamps. It’s largely an environment where the men are separated from the boys and the prospects from the pretenders. Arcia’s half-season with the Miracle reaffirmed that he was definitely a legitimate prospect. While the average hitter in the league held a .373 slugging percentage, Arcia was one of five players in the league to have a slugging percentage over .500. Pushed up to New Britain and Double-A ball, as a 21-year-old in a league with an average age of 24, Arcia simply raked and emerged as a genuine run producer. At one point, he drove in 67 runs over the course of 69 games. The Good: Thick in the truck and stout in the upper body, Arcia has a bulldog-like build that consumes the left-handed batter’s box. Coupled with a strong hip transition, he is able to repeatedly make solid contact and power by keeping his hands close to his body and thereby creating leverage, as shown below: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3244[/ATTACH] This is an example of a pitch on the middle-to-outer third of the plate. Arcia is able to keep his hands close to his body and drive that pitch to the left-center gap for a double. With the spacious Target Field the ultimate goal for any Twins prospect, having line drive power to all fields – particularly in the expansive gap-to-gap region on the ballpark – is a very coveted skill. The Bad: Like most left-handed hitters at his age, Arcia has struggled some against same-sided pitching. Over the past two years, his OPS has been two hundred points lower when facing left-handers versus right-handers. Are the Twins concerned about his splits? Not entirely says Twins’ Director of Minor League Operations, Brad Steil. “Not concerned, but as with many young left-handed hitters, we know it’s an area he’ll need to keep working on. He did show improvement in the second half with New Britain last season.” That’s very true. After hitting .210/.286/.306 in 70 plate appearances against southpaws with Fort Myers, Arcia hit .319/.400/.464 over his next 80 plate appearances against lefties while in New Britain. Is this small sample size success or a sign of progress? The Bottom Line: Will Arcia get the call at some point this year? “Any potential contribution in the major leagues will depend on his progression and performance and an available opportunity,” Steil answered diplomatically. Obviously there is not a need for a corner outfielder at this point. That said, could certain moves in-season prompt an opening? Perhaps trading a soon-to-be free agent first baseman or moving the current starting left fielder into a full-time designated hitter role would make room. If Arcia continues to produce at the same pace as he did last season, it may be a “when” not “if” scenario for the Minnesota Twins.

Age: 21 (DOB: 09/28/1991) 2012 Stats (RK/A): .299/.347/.499, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 62 R, 11/22 SB ETA: 2015[ATTACH=CONFIG]3214[/ATTACH] So far, Eddie Rosario’s minor league career has been largely overshadowed by Miguel Sano. It’s a common phenomenon with any pairing. One emerges as the fan favorite and the other continues doing valuable if underappreciated work. Maris had Mantle. Oates had Hall. Colmes had Hannity. The guy on the left of Milli Vanilli had the guy on the right of Milli Vanilli. Having been teammates dating back to 2010 when both players joined the organization, it is Sano who has been grabbing the headlines and basking in the attention of the national prospect junkies. It starts physically where, unlike the imposing physique of Sano which casts a big shadow, Rosario’s six-foot-nothing, buck-seventy frame does not garner as much attention. Nevertheless, Rosario has put together an auspicious start to his professional career – thanks to remarkable bat speed and square contact. In 2011, he slammed 21 home runs to lead the Appalachian League as a 19-year-old. It had been eight years since someone had socked more than 20 home runs in the short-season league. “Since I was a kid, I’ve always hit the ball hard,” Rosario told reporters prior to the 2012 season. “Now that I’m a professional player, I realize that it’s because I have a really fast swing; I have quick hands, and usually hit the ball on the barrel. I’m aware of that now. When I was a kid, I just knew I always hit the ball hard.” Evaluators noted that Rosario lacked the speed to continue to play at center field and did not possess the arm for a corner outfield position like right field. Recognizing the pipeline was filled with high quality outfield talent coupled with a dearth of middle infield candidates, the Twins requested that he grab an infielder’s glove. This transition could be very advantageous to Rosario and the Twins. Without many options head of him, his path to the major may have been shorten – provided he learns the position in a timely manner. The Good: Rosario has proven that he is an above-average hitter in his three seasons thus far. In addition to strong numbers stateside, he turned heads while playing in Puerto Rico this winter. In fact, MLB.com’s Peter Gammons tweeted that one general manager rated Rosario as the top prospect within that league based on his performance. Mechanically speaking, Rosario, who keeps his hands low in his set, exhibits a small, downward hitch in his swing at his load point (he has a north-south load rather than an east-west one). This added movement will likely need to be reduced in order to avoid being exploited but to this juncture of his career, he’s succeeded. More than that, his strikeout totals dropped noticeably – from 20% in 2011 to 16% in 2012 – even while moving up a level. His level swing allows the bat to stay through the hitting zone extremely well and, because of his plus bat speed, he is able to get the ball to jump hard off of the lumber. The Bad: Rosario didn’t match the output in 2012 when advancing to the Midwest League, but that was expected. After all, his approach is not a basher like Sano rather Rosario is a line drive, gap-to-gap guy with a high average potential. This trend will likely continue as he graduates to the Florida State League – a place where the heat oppresses the offense – so temper expectation accordingly. In the field, he will need to make strides at the keystone and grow more comfortable around the base during double-plays and going to his backhand. That said, reports from the fall instruct league were mostly positive. “He made improvements last season, but it’s still a work in progress, since he doesn’t have a lot of experience there,” commented Brad Steil, the Twins’ Director of Minor League Operations. “He’ll need to continue working on all aspects of his defense. His instincts and feel around second base will improve with experience.” Asked to participate on Puerto Rico’s World Baseball Classic team, Rosario will shift back to the outfield during the exhibition event. The Bottom Line: As a high average hitter with good pop, his bat projects extremely well as at second base - a position that has slowly transformed into an offensive-oriented one. Consider this: Since 2000, the Minnesota Twins’ collection of second basemen has produced a baseball-worst .672 OPS. With little ahead of him in terms of middle infield talent, a strong 2013 season could make Rosario one of the organization’s top movers-and-shakers. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler] [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #9: Trevor May] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #8: J. O. Barrios]

Age: 23 (DOB: 09/23/1989) 2012 Stats (AA): 10-13, 149.2 IP, 4.87 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 151/78 K/ BB ETA: 2014 [ATTACH=CONFIG]3190[/ATTACH] On paper, Trevor May has all the makings of an elite pitcher. At six-foot-five and 215 pounds, the 22-year-old right-hander has the stature of a legit workhorse. “Just his build, he is built just like a pitcher,” remarked Dusty Wathan, May’s manager at Reading (AA) last year. “If you were going to build a starting pitcher you would start with a body like that.” Beyond his physical presence, May fires low-to-mid 90s bullets and has a decent curveball, a developing changeup and has been working on a hard slider. Based on this pedigree, May would find himself a frequent guest in the top five when Baseball America would generate the Phillies’ annual Top 10 Prospects list. In fact, heading into the 2012 season, May was the baseball periodical’s choice for Philadelphia’s number one prospect. Sure, an assist goes to a Phillie farm system which had been harvested to allow May to ascend to the head of the class but the fact remained he got there by doing what he has done so well: strike fools out. Of course, along with the high totals of missed bats comes an unhealthy amount of missed strike zones as well. His mechanics reportedly have been inconsistent and off-balanced leading to the heartburn-inducing walk totals. After five years in the Phillies’ system, the organization may have soured on the idea that he would ever be able to make the adjustments necessary to reach his projected potential. Void of power-armed pitchers in their system, the Minnesota Twins are willing to gamble that they will see more of the former and less of the latter after they traded Ben Revere – one of their own Baseball America top five prospect graduates – to acquire May. The Good In 2011, May led the Florida State League (high-A) in strikeouts with 208 in 151 innings pitched. To put this into context, in the past 12 years only he and Tampa starter Matt Moore (208 in 2010) have registered more than 200 strikeouts in that league. May would follow that performance by leading the Eastern League too, a league in which he was two years younger than the average age. Based on those figures, it is hard to not dwell on the potential upside. What would be a good comparable? May envisions himself to be a Matt Cain-type of pitcher, as he told reporters at TwinsFest: After six consecutive seasons of 200+ innings and ERA+ of 126 in that time, certainly any team would take a Matt Cain duplicate. The Bad “All I’ve got to do is get his command and I think I’ll be OK,” May had self-evaluated. Will that be like Delmon Young saying: “All I’ve got to do is just stop swinging so much and I think I’ll be OK”? After making improvements to his control-based numbers in 2011, May’s walk totals trended the other way in 2012. So, in addition to leading the Eastern League in strikeouts, May also took home the dubious honor for most free passes issued (78). Last year the walks seemed to sneak up on him. After posting an 88-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the end of June, May sudden posted a 21-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the month of July, completely skewing his numbers. To make matters worse his home run total took a significant jump from his previous season (8 in 151.1 innings with Clearwater) to this past year (22 in 149.2 innings with Reading) as well. The Bottom Line May has the stuff to quickly ascend in the Twins system – especially given the relatively lack of talent ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, he has plenty of refining to do. While the Twins have been short on strikeout pitchers, as an organization they still thrive on precision and will likely want to see improvements out of May in that department. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler.]