Nashvilletwin

Sure, absolutely the fortunes of this team will swing on the health of our two best players. That’s not unusual, but it’s fair to say the Twins are relatively more long on those two players’ health than other clubs might be with their two best players. Having said that, we shouldn’t look past the health of the three players comprising the core of the FO’s 2023 strategy: Gray, Mahle and Maeda. If those three are healthy - let’s say, pitching combined over 450 innings - this team could go a long way even if Buxton and/or Correa only play 80 games apiece. Said another way, if Buxton and Correa each played 130+ games and those three throw less than a total of 325 innings (and, btw, that unfortunately is not an unreasonable expectation by any means), Buxton and Correa’s good health won’t matter. We do not have the starter or BP depth to overcome that. That’s why it’s important to get one more solid, reliable innings eater starter.

We break camp with 13 position players - 2 catchers (Vasquez, Jeffers), 5 infielders (Correa, Farmer, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda) and 6 outfielders. Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, who are the six outfielders (with primary positions)? 1. Buxton (CF). 2. Gallo (RF). 3. Gordon (LF, CF backup). 4. Larnach (LF, RF). 5. Kiriloff (LF, RF, 1B). 6. Celestino (OF utility) or Wallner (RF) or new RH OF bat First three are starters. Any of the six (other than Celestino) could DH with Gordon able to play SS or 2B and Gallo and Kiriloff able to play 1B. Kepler is traded. Based on spring training, Wallner or Celstino begins the season in AAA with the other (if we add a RH OF bat) and Martin (who may be the first call up given his RH bat status - don’t sleep on him, he could be above Wallner and Celestino in the OF pecking order by the end of May).

Exactly why we cannot trade either Lewis or Lee. If both turn out to be super players, there will be room for both of them on the diamond. But we cannot afford to trade Lee and then have Lewis turn into 80 Game Buxton or worse.

Played our cards on Gallo….

Nice post!

Haha - didn’t see your post, but I just posted the same stats on the Should We Extend Arraez thread. The numbers are eerily similar through the first four years - and both finished their fourth year at age 25.

Berrios had a decent ‘21, but only threw 70 or so innings. Last year he threw over 170, but led the league in both hits and earned runs given up. His ERA was over 5.3. So he barely played in ‘21, was awful in ‘22 (would have been no better performing than our #5 except for eating innings), and he’s expensive. The Berrios trade for SWR and Martin was one of this FO’s better moves. We will see what becomes of SWR and Martin, but we didn’t give up anything per se. Sorry, but other than innings, JB is not contributing much. (One could argue that we wouldn’t have traded for Mahle last season if we still had Berrios - so there’s that. But if that were the case, would JB be better than our #4 starter?)

Wow, just think how good Arraez would be if he didn’t limp when he ran….haha.

Would you extend this player? Averages for first four seasons: Ave: .316; OBP: .366, OPS: .770. Total plate appearances: 1,889. Age at the end of year 4: 25. Compare to Arraez. Arraez first four seasons averages: BA: .314; OBP: 0.374; OPS: .774 Arraez total PAs: 1,569. Age at the end of year 4: 25 I’m not saying Arraez will have a career like the player above; however, their first four seasons overall have been pretty comparable at the plate. I’d extend him. Oh, the player is Tony Gwynn

Thank you! Have a great weekend!

Let’s try to break this down a bit. The goal for the Twins this year should be to win the Central (and see where things go from there) while building/not screwing up the roster for a longer and more open window in ‘24-‘26. 1. If healthy, our starting staff is solid - in reality, how much more value would be created by replacing Ober with one of these Marlins. Some for sure, but at what cost to ‘24-‘26? 2. With an injury or two, we still have SWR, Varland and Winder for depth. Could one, or even a mix of all three, do nearly as well as one of the Marlins? Possibly. But we should expect injuries to our current starters and having another fairly certain 100+ IP SP arm would be a super hedge. 3. After this year, there is no certainty we resign any of Gray, Mahle or Maeda. That leaves us with Ryan, Ober and the three prospects (four if you include Balazovic). At least one more dependable, controllable and cheap SP arm is highly desirable heading into ‘24 and beyond. 4. Ideally, we do not want to move any position player assets who have a reasonable chance to be impactful on the roster in ‘24-‘26. This list includes Arraez, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Wallner, and maybe one of Larnach or Kiriloff. This list probably does not include Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Gallo, Celestino, Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, Urbina, and possibly one of Larnach or Kiriloff. Conclusion: We definitely could use another reliable 100 IP starter to both maximise our chances this season while giving us a solid core rotation heading into ‘24-‘26. Any package of the position players listed above to get that done which includes (if required) a) one of either Farmer or Polanco, b) one of either Kepler or Gallo, c) one of either Celestino, Larnach or Kiriloff, and d) one of Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, or Urbina makes sense and might be doable. The order of interest IMHO would be: Cabrera, Luzardo, Lopez and Rogers.

Two comments. 1. I just do not understand the lack of love for Gordon on this site. He might not have a roster spot in ‘23? Seriously? After Buxton he is our best all around outfielder - which means most of the time he’s our best all around outfielder. Until he is unseated by Larnach, Kiriloff or Wallner, he should be starting five games a week. And if Buxton is hurt, he’s probably our best bet at an everyday CF. Celestino? Please. Gordon is a legit major leaguer who has not peaked yet. He’s absolutely part of the solution going forward. 2. Polanco was not mentioned. He’s probably our most valuable trade prospect. But with CC coming back, he’s probably off the table. Same with Gray - no chance he gets moved at this point. The FO is probably all in until the deadline on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Polanco, Farmer and Gallo (sadly). The question is whom (outside of Kepler) do we move and when to grab one more starter to hedge the IP risk of the three veteran starters. It could be the FO waits to see how the overall staff looks coming out of ST and what kind of start the team has in the first six or so weeks of the season.

Love the deal; great to have CC back. Yes, it was lucky we got him back, but kudos to the FO for not only hanging around the hoop, but also actually getting a deal (btw, much more favourable to the Twins than the first offer) done in a tense, constantly leverage changing, rumor-filled environment. Hats off! A few days ago, the all-in on Mahle/Gray/Maeda strategy for ‘23 was looking much more risky and maybe even ill-advised. The FO and Joe had to be worried about the team they’d put on the field and the ability to draw fans. A healthy Correa in the lineup now changes that narrative dramatically - he makes the entire team better and much more interesting to the fan base. It will be interesting to see how much more all in the FO goes this off-season. With Correa now on board, an entirely new set of trades will probably be evaluated. Some players who were off the block might suddenly be back on and some who were on the block might now be off. Another starter to hedge the risk of less than expected IPs from Mahle, Gray and Maeda makes much more sense now (I mean, time to put some more chips in now, right?). I for one just hope we don’t give up anyone who can reasonably be expected to break camp with the team in ‘24 because our best window if we play our cards right might just be ‘24-‘26.

Gordon and Martin are outfielders. At the moment they are behind Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, and Julien (even probably Arraez for that matter on a utility basis) in the non-1B infield innings to be played queue. No one is worried about the Correa signing taking away innings and ABs from Gordon or Martin - they will need to make or break their careers with the Twins in the outfield. The player you are missing is Julien. At the moment he projects as a true 2B who should see major league time this season. Correa is not the player clogging up this infield - he’s the key cog for the next several years. It’s going to be Farmer and Polanco (whom I hope has a monster bounce back year) who could be the clogs in ‘23 taking playing time away from Lewis, Julien and Lee. Ultimately, the Twins could have an infield in ‘24-‘26 of these six players: Correa (SS/3B), Lewis (3B/SS), Lee (2B/SS utility), Julien (utility/2B), Miranda (1B/3B) and Arraez (1B/2B utility). Six solid players, of whom four start every game and one is available to DH. Excellent flexibility. Good enough D coupled with a strong mix of batting characteristics (i.e L/R, power, AVE, OPB, speed, etc.) Outside of Correa, pretty darn cheap. Future is bright if we don’t blow it.

Great development that Correa fell back into our laps. This FO will now be all in on making their Mahle, Gray, Maeda strategy work. So that means your roster projection is in the ballpark. But it means many young players still requiring development will not get the innings or ABs they need barring injury. Wallner, Larnach, Martin (he’s an outfielder now), Celestino and maybe Kiriloff will be sacrificed for one more year on the Joey Gallo and possibly Max Kepler altars. Same with Julien, Lewis and possibly Lee on the Farmer and Polanco (here’s hoping he has a great bounce back year) altars. Probably we will see a trade or two to bolster/injury hedge our SPs. Its the right strategy in the short term - the Central could be had. But make no mistake, it will come at a cost for ‘24 when it’s quite possible that many, if not all, of Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Farmer, Gallo, Kepler and Polanco are gone.

Agreed (maybe Lewis is at 3B and Lee is 2B). Arraez and Julien are the 5th and 6th infielders. Four of the six play in the field, one dh’s, and one sits every day. In the OF, throw in Buxton, Gordon, and three of the Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and Rodriguez sweepstakes. Jeffers and Vasquez at catcher. Those could be our primary thirteen position players in ‘24. The two losers of the OF sweepstakes plus Celestino, Urbina, and Sabato are core AAA backups. Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Garlick, and Gallo are gone no later than the trade deadline - hopefully for pitching. That my friends presents a solid window for several years if we can get the pitching right.

Agree 100%. Love to see 9/$240 with the first tree at 3/$105, the next three at 3/$75 and the last three at 3/$60. Opt outs after years 2 and 5 (giving Correa 2/$70 and a chance to better the remaining 7/$170 at age 30 or 5/$165 and a chance to better the remaining 4/$75 at age 33). No trade clause thru year three.

Did the Dodgers’ manager yank him in the 5th after getting through the order for the 2nd time? Yeah, he wouldn’t be a fit for the Twins - he’d only last one start. Please note the italics font indicating sarcasm,

Agree, the Correa signing does have an impact - not only on the slots directly available, but also on the direction the team takes at the deadline. With Correa, if the Twins are in any way even remotely (i.e. delusionally) in the hunt for a playoff spot, this FO will be much less likely to pull the trigger on trading players like Polanco, Gallo and Farmer. Those three are the keys for Julien, Lee, and Martin (and Wallner for that matter) getting the ABs and innings they need to be ready for ‘24. In fact, they might even trade some of those young players to go all in on their Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Correa strategy for ‘23. Who knows - maybe it will be the right call. Without Correa, the FO might be more likely to grasp reality and develop/assess the young talent with meaningful major league experience.

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs. ’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs. With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players.

Hilarious. So true. Minnesotans are #1 in PA.

Gone by ‘24

Rodriguez is also a lefty. Buxton, Martin, Celestino and Urbina are the four right-handed bats of the nine. So without trades or FAs, it would be up to Martin, Celestino or Urbina to be a “decent-hitting RH bat”. My money is on Martin, but Celestino could very well be that player.

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy). For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield: 1. Buxton. 2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it). 3. Larnach. 4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24). 5. Wallner. 6. Martin. 7. Rodriguez. 8. Celestino. 9. Urbina. So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development. Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability. If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

The core of the Twin’s strategy in ‘23 certainly includes fewer injuries, rebound campaigns and/or ongoing improvement throughout most of the roster. However, it appears that for this FO and many Twins fans much of their hopes rest on three key planks: namely, Buxton’s health (how many games he plays), the pitching triumvirate of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (how many innings they pitch), and the renaissance of Gallo (how he slashes). It’s a fair supposition given that without more than a modicum of success from at least two, if not all, of those three, this Twins team will likely struggle to compete for a pennant, let alone a Central Division title. Although fair, is the supposition actually likely? For each of these three planks, what would a) define success (i.e. what could realistically be considered a very positive result and/or what makes the FO look smart) and b) what should we actually expect (i.e. the over/under)? Here’s one take: Buxton Games Played Success: 100 in CF, 30 as DH (second most ever) Over/Under: 70 in CF, 20 as DH (essentially average of ‘16, ‘19, and ‘22) Gray, Mahle and Maeda Innings Pitched Success: 390 (essentially 140 from both Gray and Mahle and 110 from Maeda) Over/Under: 330 (115 from both Gray and Mahle and 100 from Maeda) Gallo Production Success: .230/.350/.450 - OPS: .800 (essentially his 2021 season) Over/Under: .200/.290/.420 - OPS: .710 (better than his 2022 season) Twins fans know that, especially for mid-market teams, it might take several players having solid, if not career years, to win playoff games. However, would “success” re each of these three planks be enough to catapult the Twins into contention? Probably, especially with decent years from other key players. How likely is it that all three, are reached? Low in all probability. The point is that unless a couple of, if not several other, Twins have truly breakout years, even just hitting these three over/unders is not likely to be a winning strategy for ‘23. Hope springs eternal. The FO has pursued a strategy dependent on a few key bets or hoping for breakout years from others. Hey, it’s a strategy and it was put in place with Mahle’s acquisition last year and a reaction bet on Gallo after Correa moved on. We shall see if it’s a good strategy or even how long the FO/ownership stays committed to it.