Nashvilletwin

The truth is that virtually any championship calibre team will be comprised of both home grown talent and acquired players (trades or FA). However, smaller market teams - like the Twins - benefit more on the margin by developing more of their own cheaper, controllable talent as opposed to having to go out and fill a lot of holes with more expensive, shorter contract players (again, via trades or FA). This current rotation has been filled via trades and the result is more proven players but with very limited control. This approach for a team like the Twins is too skewed probably on an ongoing longer-term basis than would be ideal (or likely even sustainable). But it has been done at a reasonable cost for the most part, provided we get the performance out of these players we expect (and that is far from certain). The trick will be to see how many of the up and comers can get prepared to be quality, cheap, controllable rotation pieces in ‘24 and beyond (essentially behind Lopez, Ryan and any of Mahle, Gray or Maeda we choose to/are able to extend). Then we can get back to a little more balance in the model.

Couldn’t agree more. The rotation is better. And Correa is better. But that may be it. Just keeping it real. Unless Buxton stays healthy and goes off, we probably have the lightest hitting OF in the majors. Correa cannot make up for a declining Polanco and yet to be dependable Miranda and Kiriloff. Catcher is a good mix and should neither a plus or minus by much either way (but no at the plate production like Garv Sauce). DH? Please - we likely will be bottom 25% of the league in terms of production. Nelson ruled. If healthy, the rotation is deep and should be what carries this team. We shall see about the BP, but hopefully Duran and Alcala improve, but I’m worried about Jax and Lopez regression. In 2019, Rocco’s weaknesses were hidden by the long ball. He will not have that luxury at all this year when manufacturing runs and playing good fundamentals will be at the forefront. Not even a close comparison….

Don't forget Ober, Winder, SWR, and Varland. I’m sure we are missing a few as well. But, you are correct. They 100% “are focused on determining their own future”. And many of them would welcome with open arms a trade where they might get more opportunity. All I’m saying is that the queue is long and growing and many of them realise they might/probably have a better chance to prove themselves outside the Twins organization. Moving Arraez helps the infield log jam a bit. Trading for Lopez and Taylor, signing Gallo, and keeping Kepler do not. At some point, the kids need innings.

Overall, a middling lineup with all hopes for a playoff berth based on the rotation. Unless Buxton is playing and hitting, this might be the weakest offensive outfield in the league (but great defensively). Gordon might be the only player to hit above .230. The infield is relying on two young players (one who is oft injured and, when not, only occasionally rakes and the other who is at best middle of the road defensively and fell off quite dramatically at the plate after a hot stretch last season) - and a veteran coming off his worst season in years. Catching will be so so more or less. Rotation looks solid, particularly if Mahle, Gray, Lopez, and Maeda can stay healthy (but has the depth). The bullpen is pretty much a run back from last year. The coaching staff hasn’t been upgraded either - we will see if they get better in getting more out of our fundamentals, base running and in-game tactics than last year. On a side note, I’d really hate being a top prospect in the Twins organization at the moment. Ageing vets (Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, even Polanco) seems to be a core strategy. There are lots of players - both positional and on the bump - lining up for a shot. There’s a decent chance you will just get stashed until you start to age out of the sweet spot of getting majors experience. Then when you do get a chance, you are under team control long enough you might only get one bite at the big money deal. I’m sure there is a ton of frustration right now among some of the prospects banging at the door.

Let’s check in at the end of the year. I hope I’m wrong on all of them (except I hope Arraez makes the NL all star team).

Nope, just what I’ve read. One sight had him #7 on the Marlins’ prospect list and I think MLB slotted him behind Martin on our pro forma list. A SS prospect initially, but who some now question if he can even stay in the infield. He’s a plus batter who’s overall performance seemed to drop last season. None of that is unusual for a young player. We’ve seen that summary for a lot of prospects. He may turn out great. I just don’t rate him yet as highly as others. Hope I’m wrong.

We shall see……

We don’t really know how this trade will work out. Clearly one team valued a particular skill base more than another and vice versa. Lots of outcomes are certainly possible. But let me offer a few wagers: 1. Lopez pitches over 150 innings in either ‘23 or ‘24. 2. Salas progresses as a prospect and is a top 100 prospect at the end of ‘23 on anyone’s list? 3. Arraez’s OBP, BA, and BARISP are better than any Twins player in ‘23? 4. Kiriloff hits over 20 HRs and .250 and plays in over 100 games? 5. Arraez is an all star in ‘23, the Twins have no position player all stars, and Arraez’s defensive ranking at 2B is better than Polancos? My side in each: no, no, yes, no, and yes. We all have our opinions. Mine, albeit quite unpopular and in the vast minority, are that Arraez hasn’t peaked yet, Lopez has, and Salas is falling as a prospect and will never play a single inning of SS (maybe not even 2B) in the majors. It’s actually Miami that actually sold high. We shall see.

Disagree, I’ve seen Salas ranked #7 on the Marlins prospect list and MLB currently slots him in behind Martin on our list. I’ve also read plenty that he doesn’t have the lateral range to be a SS and some even question his ability to play 2B. Who knows, adding Chourio might have been like that scene from Money Ball. We can debate Lopez injury risk vs. Arraez’s. But Arraez was the second best position player on the Twins behind Correa (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count). He has a decidedly differentiated skill base at the plate than any other player on this team - by a lot. He’s only 25 and there is no way you can hypothesise that he’s peaked. The risk on Lopez having peaked is likely higher at 27. Arm issues for a pitcher exceed knee issues for a hitter. So many people are just assuming this a slam dunk, “we fleeced the Marlins” deal. It’s just my opinion that it is not that simple. But then again, we all need to live by the bible of Fangraphs.

The consensus of the “national press” is exactly reason #1 to question this trade. Group think and parroting one another does not make for good analysis.

But his knees, right? Lol.

This is the truth - Lopez protects the Mahle, Gray, Maeda strategy for ‘23 and is the hedge on the ‘24 rotation when none of them are resigned (for whatever reason - pay demands, injury, plain old stink).

Kiriloff may never be back - the risk with his wrist is greater than the risk with Arraez’s knees. Miranda cooled off a lot last year and neither he nor Kiriloff is an upgrade at 1B. Polanco has peaked and may not be on this team by the trade deadline. Gordon and Martin are primarily outfielders. Farmer is a one year stop gap. Lewis, Lee and Julien all have promise for sure - but it’s still just promise. Arraez brought incredible differentiated value to this team and arguably was our second best position player (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count).

Salas is not a SS prospect - maybe not even an infielder prospect.

Lol - This is exactly the reason why the merits of this deal should be questioned. The consensus of the “national” press generally means a bunch of group think by people too lazy to really delve into the issues and who simply parrot what each other write. We shall see, but Lopez was clearly the one “youngish” SP of “quality” the Marlins were fixated on moving. Why? Probably because he had less control (a big issue for the Marlins) and he had less upside. Very possible he has peaked. How about Salas? Salas had just a good enough year to build back some trade value. But they know he’s no SS, probably not even an infielder. So Salas is our new Austin Martin, but with less OBP and a bit more power. Anyone want to wager if Salas’ national rankings go up or down this season within the Twins’ system? The last guy? If only we all had a nickel for every 17 year old phenom. Sheesh - his value is next to nada. Sorry - but this very much is still a one-for-one trade and is not as cut and dried as the vast majority of TDers think. Hope it works out, but the beauty of an Arraez at bat was a reason to tune into every game. Lopez will not replace that. There is no one on the Twins to replace what Arraez brought to the lineup. Kiriloff? Please. Miranda? C’mon. Farmer, or Gallo? Be serious. As a team struggling to score runs - and they will be that if Buxton doesn’t play 100 games and hit well - the Twins could be a very boring team to watch this year. They’d better win….

More like Austin Martin with a bit more power. Seriously, it’s just like getting Martin who, when the Twins got him, was a fringy top 100 player who plays SS but may not even project as an infielder. I refuse to buy into the “Twins fleeced the Marlins” narrative that seems to be quite popular on TD tonight. Other than maybe the Berrios trade, this FO hasn’t shown it can deliver on trades, let alone fleece anyone. When people start talking about how smart we are and how dumb or backed against the wall the Marlins were, that’s when the antenna go up.

Winning solves everything - especially with front running Minnesota fans who’d rather spend their summer nights walking around a lake, fishing, biking, boating, etc. than watch a losing Twins club. As someone who watched 150+ games last year, Arraez was must see TV for me. I have no interest really in watching Kep anymore at the plate and Joey Gallo will really only be fun to watch to keep track of his k’s. Lol. Fangraphs be damned. We lost our most fun player to watch (sorry, Buxton only plays 1/3 of the games and “I can’t believe I ended up in Minnesota” Correa is just hard to cheer for in the heart). Gallo and Farmer are not going to get me to tune in. We will see about Lopez, but unless this team wins - and this is coming from a die hard Twins fan - my innings watched this year will likely be a lot less. Just keeping things real…… I actually view this more as either a) a hedge on not resigning one of Mahle, Gray or Maeda for whatever reason (injury, cost, plain old stink) and/ or b) not much faith in Ober, SWR, Varland, Winder and Balazovic. Either could be very valid reasons.

Not sure this is the case - really not very good at either, but I’d be hard pressed to say the Twins are a good hitting ball club. At the moment I’d wager the ‘23 Twins are in the bottom 20-25% of all teams in strike outs, BARISP, OBP, and, most importantly, runs scored. Its more like Falvey thought that even with Arraez the Twins would never be able to hit their way to victory - might as well go long pitching. Better make a few more pen moves if that’s the case.

Lee and Julien’s time in the majors this year (assuming they both continue to perform in the minors) will depend on if we are contending and the health of Lewis. If we are contending, chances are Polanco and Farmer make it through the deadline. If healthy, Lewis gets the first chance at significant ABs. Regardless, the Twins infield starting in ‘24 looks to be cheap (besides Correa, of course) and deep both at the plate and in the field. We should have these six players on the roster and with the DH, it’s possible that five of these six players are starting every game: Correa, Arraez, Miranda, Lewis, Lee and Julien.

I went to that July 4th 1974 Eddie Bane debut game. Crazy atmosphere. SRO at the old Met. Those were the days…… I’ve got the over on Lee having a better Twins career than Eddie. But give Eddie credit - he still built a solid career in baseball.

That’s a good one - never heard it before. Made me chuckle.

Based on his performance, development to-date, and potential, he’s probably ranked 9th on the current list of Twins’ 2024/2025 possible outfielders (note, Kepler, Gallo, and any additional RH bat acquired are absent): 1. Buxton. 2. Gordon. 3. Larnach. 4. Kiriloff. 5. Wallner. 6. Martin. 7. Rodriguez. 8. Celestino. 9. Urbina. The bad news for Urbina is that he’s ninth. The good news for Urbina is that not a single one of those players can be counted on to be an everyday player because of injury risk and/or proof of development. So there is a lot for him to play for re his future with the Twins. And as for the Twins, he is certainly still one of their bets they have out there to fill one of the four available projected OF slots behind Buxton. Let’s see how ‘23 goes for him.

Could be viewed as a “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” flier for the ‘24 rotation and a hedge on resigning one of Mahle, Gray and Maeda. So all good. The goal is to gather enough of these to at least find one or two reliable starters in ‘24 to go along with Ryan and Ober. Options now include: resigning one or two of Gray, Mahle and Maeda, Winder, SWR, Varland, Balazovic, and Paddack. Whom am I missing? We really could use one more reliable, innings eating, controllable arm by the trade deadline.

I’ve way got the under on this. Vegas would probably set the over/under at around .200.

I don’t understand the comments that we have not upgraded our starting pitching. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Mahle and Maeda were not in the rotation for most of ‘22. This year they both should break camp with the team. Also, Ryan and Ober are both a year older with more experience - they both should enter this season with the expectation to be better than where they were at the beginning of last season. We will see how healthy Maeda and Mahle turn out to be, but there is no way this year’s rotation out of camp isn’t significantly better on paper than last year’s.