Nashvilletwin

We shall see about our bullpen - there are plenty of questions and not just about Pagan: Is Lopez really going to be a reliable high leverage option (personally, I think this is the biggest risk - not Pagan)? When and will Alcala reach dependability? Was poor Jax just overused, or was his later in the season decline a harbinger that the league was figuring him out? Thielbar is a solid lefty, but is another year older an issue? Will Moran continue his solid trajectory as a reliable, improving 25 year old option? Can Megill improve upon his 2022 campaign? Our bullpen looks as solid as any in recent years. No doubt. But bullpens can be fleeting, fickle things and this year it won’t just be Pagan’s performance that will make or break the bullpen’s season. In fact, a rebound from Pagan could be huge if some of the questions above don’t to turn out to be favourably answered.

Reasonably above or below ERA or FIP won’t be the key to the success of our five pencilled in starters (and by extension quite possibly the success of the team) this season. The key is going to be their innings pitched.

We can only hope so. Rocco’s (or any Twins’ manager given our small to mid-market positioning) two primary objectives are: a) be an above average in-game manager whose day-to-day managerial decisions on the field lead to more net wins than losses; and b) demonstrably develop his players - most importantly, the young talent he’s given from our minor league system - into the best major leaguers they can be. We shall see if Rocco can make the necessary adjustments - whether though his style or staff - to meet those objectives. At least he seems to admit changes are needed.

No need to worry about Ober getting innings - if healthy, he will get every opportunity to get in the maximum starts his ramp up in ‘23 allows. There just is so little chance our expected five starters stay heathy. Personally, I’m expecting Gray, Mahle, and Lopez to all need some time off this season and Maeda won’t get fully ramped up until 1/4 - 1/3 of the season if all goes well anyway. Also, depending on if, or how close, we are to competing, a couple of our impending ‘24 starters might be traded by the deadline anyway. I expect the number of our “primary” starters this year to actually be more like 7-8 with Ober and Maeda rounding out the top 6. Remember, an incredibly important sub goal to this season is to see what we have in Ober, Varland, Winder, and SWR and to get them ready for the ‘24 campaign - so all should see plenty of big league action this year even if there are limited injuries or departures within the “top five”.

Thanks for the update Nick. The “on ramp” to being fully ready for opening day seems a bit congested already, but other than concerns re Polanco and Kiriloff - both of whom are incredibly important to our offensive success this season - overall not that bad for week one. Really good news on Mahle, Larnach, and Lewis. We all have anticipated that Maeda and Alcala probably would be eased in over the first 1/4 - 1/3 of the season anyway and Paddock is primarily a ‘24 wager. And, alas, Buxton is Buxton…..

Good strategy with our next 4-5 starter candidates - keep them as starters as it’s highly likely we will need them all sometime this year (possibly often) and beyond for sure. The Saints’ lineup pretty much from top to bottom could be a lot of fun to watch this year.

Lee is as close to a “can’t miss” prospect as the Twins have had in several years - son of a coach, high baseball acumen, raked at every level with both power and OBP, and plenty good in the field. Baseball flows through this kid’s veins. I can’t wait to cheer for this kid and tune in to watch every one of his ABs.

I’d take .210 right now…..lol

Actually, a very weak offensive team has Gallo, Kepler, Taylor and Farmer in the lineup. But you make a great point: a lot of these players are unproven. To that end: a) it’s important we get them the innings to see not only what we have in them, but also accelerate their development; b) it’s more than likely not all of them will turn out due to injury or difficulty making the grade - that is why having 10 of them on league minimum provides the financial flexibility to go get the key one or two FAs (think Vasquez, not Gallo) to augment the roster as needed; and c) we will have other fine young players who will be knocking on the door, including a couple as soon as late ‘24 or ‘25 (i.e. Rodriguez, Salas and Miller). The future is bright.

Your 2024 Minnesota Twins Position Players (13) Starting infielders: Correa, Miranda, Lewis, Lee. Starting outfielders: Buxton, Gordon, Larnach. Starting catcher: Vasquez Designated Hitter: Kiriloff Bench players: Julien, Martin, Wallner, Jeffers. Summary Three core veterans, five multi year young players, five essentially full-time first year players. Ten players essentially on league minimum; all thirteen under team control through 2025 and twelve under team control through at least 2027. Excellent combination of power, OBP/BA, L/R. Strong defensively, particularly up the middle. Superior positional flexibility. Mediocre, but acceptable, basebath speed. This is the new, exciting position player core coming soon to the Twin Cities to bring multiple AL Pennants, at least one additional World Series title, and year after year drawing 2+ million fans to Target Field. Please Falvey, Rocco and Injury God - don’t screw this up.

Winder, SWR and Varland should get themselves ready - they are going to get lots of chances this season….

All the better!

I agree that the FO has made some fairly big bets to put together a team that should be able to compete in the weak AL Central. The base of any success is more than likely going to be the performance of the starting rotation - more specifically, Mahle, Lopez, and Maeda. This team as currently comprised is a one year wager on that rotation. Next year, it’s very likely we see big turnover as a new young core comes in. Where I disagree is on the more interesting part. I know I’m in the minority, but there is nothing “more interesting” about watching Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Farmer, and even Polanco (oh how I hope Polanco has a huge year and I’m wrong about him). (As an aside, Vasquez is marginally “more interesting” than Sanchez, but hardly dial moving). There’s nothing new to see in those players - we all know who they pretty much are - and what we have seen from them recently hasn’t been overly interesting. Any or all could essentially be looked at as “one year rentals” (or less) depending on how the season goes. This team better win or this season could get really boring very quickly - only to be saved in the second half by the arrival of Lee, Lewis, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Varland, SWR, Winder, etc.

Anchored by Correa, Buxton, Vasquez, Ryan and Duran, a new golden age of Twins baseball could be fast approaching - if we can just keep all of our young talent (those still in the minors and those early in their majors careers) healthy and on trajectory. Sure we want to win in ‘23 - the FO has bet big that the theoretical starting rotation will lead the way. But if all Rocco and his staff really accomplished in this season was to ensure tangible, sustainable development into true above average or star major leaguers from the young talent they will/should coach this year (Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Ryan, Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, Duran, Jax, Moran, and Alcala), we all should be pleased as punch. Can you just imagine this core with Rodriguez, Raya, Prielipp, Canterino, Salas, and Miller ready to join the mix in ‘25? Can you imagine the possibilities if our coaching staff actually turned out to be way above average at keeping player development going after reaching the majors? Things could get really interesting, fun and exciting around Twins Land pretty darn soon. I hope Rocco and his staff are up to their part of the plan.

Fair enough! Let’s just hope role ultimately can get settled on the field by the quality of play.

We got rid of Sano, to pick up (for $11MM) his not quite as good doppelgänger at the plate. It’s hard to believe actually, defensive accolades included. I’m getting to the stage in my life where every day, let alone hour or minute, matters a whole lot more. But honestly I can’t wait for 2024 to get here so I can watch more Twins players I actually am interested in watching. Sorry, but Gallo, Kepler, Farmer, Taylor, and maybe even Polanco, are not among that list of players. It’s all just seems so “been there, done that” will each of them. What’s the real upside in their play? Is it worth investing my time and emotions in them as a fan? Gallo may hit a monster dinger from time to time and a nice catch or throw; but, otherwise, he and his compatriots are pretty much a snooze fest. I can’t help but think that if this team doesn’t compete, and, luckily for the FO, it might not take much to vie for the weak AL Central, a lot of other Twins fans will agree with my assessment.

FDG, are you sold on Kepler, Gallo and Taylor? Do you think those three have the potential to add more value to the Twins over the next several years than Gordon? So, if Gordon has a rough spring at the plate (which btw still might be a better spring than the other three), do you just DFA him? Or trade him for junk? What if the any or all of the trio of one year rental OFs have a bad spring at the plate? Do they get DFA’d or traded as well? Or are they “defensively” so strong it makes up for their anemia at the plate? By his actual play last season - at the plate, in the field, on the bases, and in the dugout/clubhouse - Gordon should be considered our incumbent LFer until he’s dethroned by someone playing clearly better.

👍🏻

I’m waiting for the article with the headline: Why Isn’t Nick Gordon Our Everyday Starting Left Fielder?

Raya - love his stuff and development since being drafted. Let’s just hope he stays healthy and on or above his projected trajectory. Think about it - by this time next year, the Twins could have three (Rodriguez, Raya, and Prielipp) consensus top 100, if not top 50, prospects looking to join the big club full-time in ‘25. Remarkably for the Twins, two of the three are pitchers. Btw, the list excludes anyone we draft this season (@#5) and three additional top 100 prospects who should “graduate” to the Show late this season - Lewis, Lee and Julien (possibly four if Martin is included after a solid early ‘23 campaign). That ain’t too shabby. Hope it all works out that way.

So Gordon occupies our last position player bench slot. Please…. Once again, would you trade away Gordon straight up for any of Kepler, Gallo or Taylor? Honestly, of those four players, who projects to bring the most value to the Twins over the next several years? It’s not even close. Last season when the Twins started to swoon with Buxton out and Kepler anemic at the plate (and Gallo striking out 160+ times and hitting 0.160 - good grief), it was Gordon that supplied much of the spark to this team. At the moment, based on most recent actual performance, Gordon is our second best all around outfielder. So, are we going to DFA him so we can bring back Garlick while keeping Kepler, Gallo and Taylor? That’s utterly ridiculous. Unless Gordon has an epically horrendous spring, there’s not a snowball’s chance in Hades of that happening unless our FO is even more idiotic than some TDers think.

Ok, let’s begin by figuring out where he’s not going to be a full-time starter in 2024 (when he really needs/deserves to be). Scenario #1: SS (Correa), 3B (Lee/Lewis), 2B (Lee/Lewis), CF (Buxton), C (Vasquez/Jeffers). That leaves 1B (Miranda) and corner OF (Gordon or Larnach in LF, Kiriloff in RF, Martin and Wallner as backups). In this scenario, Julien and Miranda split primary reps at 1B and DH - both are in the lineup essentially every day. Scenario #2: SS (Correa), 3B (Miranda), 2B (Lee), CF (Buxton), LF/RF (Lewis), C (Vasquez/Jeffers). That leaves 1B (Kiriloff), LF/RF (Larnach/Gordon and backups Martin and Wallner). In this scenario Julien and Kiriloff primarily split 1B and DH and both are in the lineup essentially every day. So by process of elimination, Julien is not going to be our starting 2B. 1B and DH (with possibly LF) seem like the most likely spots for an essentially every day type role - which, with a bat like that, he needs to have starting next season at the latest.

Some might say that hitting matters too; if Buxton is not healthy and Taylor, Gallo and Kepler are your starting OF (as many on this site are suggesting by saying Gordon is no better than a 4th outfielder) that group is very, very light hitting. So, some might not be that impressed with the overall capabilities of that group. If everyone is healthy, I think our best outfield is Buxton, Gordon and Larnach.

So are you trading Gordon for Kepler, Gallo or Taylor straight up? Which of those four are most valuable to this organization going forward? Or is your comment about Gordon as an outfielder more a statement about how bad our outfield really is (which is a perfectly defensible point of view btw)?

Or Gallo at 1B as well - if he’s going to hit a buckninety and K 30+% of the time, he either has to be playing a plus defensive position or not at all.