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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Maddon hasn't exactly been amazing with his bullpen usage either. I think the lesson is that basically every manager is as good as their staff allows.
  2. drjim
    And he only pitched 31.2 innings.
  3. drjim
    Not only future value, but contract and years of control along with where they are in their career (upside, peak, downside) factor into trade value. I do think the question of who had the most valuable season based on how much they are paid is very interesting, but perhaps not the question that is being answered in this award? If so, I would think Berrios was much more valuable than Santana, for example, considering Santana made 25x the salary.
  4. drjim
    I would bank my career on Buxton, and to a lesser extent Berrios. I would be comfortable punting on Rosario/Kepler/Polanco for a season, and I don't think I would go huge on Sano this offseason.
  5. drjim
    I never really believed any of that. But I do believe he didn't have enough reps in the spring to make up for his terrible 2016 and jump the guys in front of him. It was especially beneficial because the backend of the rotation pitched somewhat irregularly at the beginning of the season due to weather and days off. It gave Berrios a chance to stay on a regular turn in the minors, get a good start to his season, and hit the ground running when called up. Smart development.
  6. drjim
    Seemed like his season played out pretty well, so hard to argue too much with how they handled him. He was ready to roll when the opening presented itself.
  7. drjim
    I don't really buy that was the reason he was sent down, though it probably made it more difficult to jump other players ahead of him. If Berrios wanted to start the season in the majors he should have pitched better in 2016.
  8. drjim
    I agree with this. They have to move on Buxton this offseason or it likely does not happen at all. I don't think Sano is an option this offseason and looking like he won't be during his time here, unless he really wants to be a Twin. Once the free agents sign next offseason it's game over. The others can wait without that much of a difference. Extension is fine, another year probably doesn't matter a whole lot on their ability to keep them.
  9. drjim
    Morneau and Cuddyer were signed by Bill Smith, Nathan the same year. (Though in fairness, it was also when Hunter walked and after Target Field was approved). The first Mauer contract was a big mistake by Ryan, way too short. Set the stage for the albatross to follow. He did well with Johan and Hunter though.
  10. drjim
    If it's too late for Buxton then they never really had a chance.
  11. drjim
    I would endorse an extension for Berrios, but wouldn't be especially offended if they decided to wait 2-3 years. Good (enough) extensions for non elite pitchers can be had throughout the pre-arb and arb years. That said, he seems like a decent guy to invest in, unless you are nervous about his height and if that leads to more injury concerns.
  12. drjim
    Buxton would have to be something like 1-5-9-12-22-22-etc at a minimum, and that is probably underselling it by a decent margin. These extensions are much more desirable when the money is comically understated. None of these hitters, not even Rosario, is giving up the first year of free agency for 10.5mil. Berrios might be a slightly different story, being a pitcher and locking him up two years before arb.
  13. drjim
    I don't know, Dozier had just backed up a 2.5 WAR season with a 4.7 WAR season, so there was some expectation going forward (that he has since lived up to). Kepler is still a 1 WAR player at a corner OF.
  14. drjim
    I'm old school enough to think IP really matters a lot for a SP over the course of a regular season. 65+ is a massive enough difference to easily overcome the slightly better rate stats of Berrios. Easy choice.
  15. drjim
    I think it would be nice to see a little more from Kepler and Polanco before you consider an extension. I'm not even sure how you would figure out the expected performance and what the risk tradeoffs would be.
  16. drjim
    I wouldn't sleep on Gordon either. I would go with Gonsalves as early favorite, possibly Romero if he ends up in the pen.
  17. drjim
    Establishing cost certainty on the main guys would probably make it easier to get pitching.
  18. drjim
    Correct. But it's not like the front office wants to punt the next couple of years.
  19. drjim
    I would go Buxton and Berrios. Buxton as long as it he'll go and Berrios snatched up with mulitple options. There is no rush on Rosario, another year doesn't change the equation much. He's a nice player but not going to be elite. He can sign next year too. Locking up Sano would really, really make me nervous. I would want to see a full season of health and minimal weight gain. I have a suspicion the Twins never lock him up.
  20. drjim
    Spitballing here, but what if Falvey likes Molitor, thinks he brings a lot to the table as a baseball manager, and is the best current option to implement his vision.
  21. drjim
    And MacPhail was already in the organization (albeit briefly) before he was promoted to GM. That whole analogy didn't make much sense.
  22. drjim
    Neil Allen didn't make it.
  23. drjim
    If the front office really wanted a different manager they could get one, but they would have to nail the hire or risk their jobs. And I think it is quite likely they like Molitor, as they should. I know it's hard to believe, but good relations with a fan base and trying to sell tickets is part of the equation. Ultimately winning is what matters the most (by far), but you can screw up the process in the mean time and do actual damage and cost revenue. It is a massive risk to replace Molitor after his season with media, fan base, corporate sponsors, etc. I could go either way myself, I don't think managers matter *that* much and I find most criticisms of Molitor on here to be weak sauce. And yes, an owner is going to have to sign off on a decision of who the manager is (I don't think the Pohlads are going to force a certain move tho). There's not a franchise in professional sports where that's not the case, so I don't think mlb is going to strip them of the team.
  24. drjim
    I think what's missing from this critique is how many people they have hired. Boosted the front office by around 40% in size (at least). It's smart to keep talented people who may have been hamstrung by previous operating methods and systems.
  25. drjim
    I don't understand why we try so hard to limit the agency of Falvey and Levine. They have the power to make the decisions they deem necessary. I imagine St. Peter and Pohlad would push back if they wanted to go a different direction, but they should! Molitor is popular locally and just unexpectedly led the team to the playoffs for the first time in 7 years. There needs to be an extremely good reason not to bring him back. A few too many bunts and a very undefined critique of "bullpen management" isn't nearly enough. If they don't renew Molitor and hire Pickler and it goes bad, that might be their jobs.
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