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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    If they merit it, they can probably lock everyone up other than Sano and still be in an OK financial position. I would go with Buxton and Berrios this offseason, and extend Dozier (if it is no more than 3 additional years), then wait another year for Polanco/Kepler/Rosario. I just don't see the Twins and Sano coming together for a variety of reasons.
  2. drjim
    Sounds about right to me.
  3. drjim
    And the free agent years were bought out for $33.25 mil a year. Don't think it will quite be that much for Buxton.
  4. drjim
    That might be more a fluke than a trend, a product of specific players and teams. The biggest superstar of them all signed one of these deals not that long ago. I think Buxton is getable, just needs to be enough money.
  5. drjim
    I think you are discounting the difference between a 31st round pick grabbing available money and a #2 overall pick (who already got a $6mil bonus) betting on himself.
  6. drjim
    I would guess there is expansion of two teams, a change to 4 divisions of 4 teams, no change to basic league structure/rules and the same number of games. Assuming it is Portland and Montreal, and Oakland stays in Bay Area (maybe San Jose) and Tampa stays in the south, I'd probably do this: AL West Seattle Portland LA Angels Oakland AL South Texas Houston Kansas City Tampa AL North Minnesota Chicago Detroit Cleveland AL East Boston New York Toronto Baltimore NL West San Francisco LA Dodgers San Diego Arizona NL South Pittsburgh Cincinnati Atlanta Miami NL North Colorado Milwaukee St Louis Chicago NL East Montreal New York Washington Philadelphia
  7. drjim
    I would do the contract proposed in a second. I suspect it is light.
  8. drjim
    That might be true. But we have seen a return to a more normal ageing curve as a return from what we saw in the height of the steroid era. Modern training methods are quite impressive too. I guess I don't especially care either way, I'm in favor of athletes using steroids anyways.
  9. drjim
    There is enough to go around, assuming the Mauer contract is reasonable.
  10. drjim
    I appreciate digging into the specific numbers, but before I become think more negatively about payroll spending, I would like to see at least some evidence that the Twins operate in a manner different from the vast majority of teams in the league, either in revenue/payroll split or in a failure to fully reinvest franchise value appreciation. I'm highly, highly, highly skeptical that can be shown. I would guess the typical franchise is even *worse*. If ownership allocates an appropriate amount of resources (based on revenue level), which by all available evidence they do, I put the onus on the front office to win.
  11. drjim
    For the other questions, this has been discussed, but they now pay all operating expenses and upgrades at Target Field, and they have upgraded facilities in Florida and DR and elsewhere. And expenses always go up through simple inflation.
  12. drjim
    I think they have been pretty much exactly like the majority of mlb teams. All available evidence points to this.
  13. drjim
    It's a dumb complaint, but also misguided. The way it gets presented in the local media really takes the heat off how mediocre (or worse) a gm both Smith and Ryan were. It's a simple complaint with an easy villain. If we just got a new owner, <shakes fist>, we would finally have a payroll...that is pretty much exactly the same.
  14. drjim
    And better players and different approaches. I imagine those two combined with juiced balls is most of it. I'm skeptical there is a new steroid being used by the majority of players, maybe a handful.
  15. drjim
    Angels are the most likely destination if he leaves the Twins.
  16. drjim
    Maybe. I do think if you have an established level, you get hurt, and then return to said level the second year after returning from the injury - that is an achievable position. It's basically what Alex Cobb did (albeit at a slightly lesser performance than Lynn). There is certainly risk, and it is also possible, probably likely he won't hold up over the length of the contract, but that is why he is a free agent and why he would potentially be in the Twins price range this offseason. You can pick apart every available free agent arm, but the Twins need one.
  17. drjim
    Improved health is the obvious one. If he gets back to the 3 years prior to TJ, that's a very solid 3.
  18. drjim
    Almost every free agent contract is going to be *bad* and you can pick apart every option that is out there. But, alas, you need a rotation.
  19. drjim
    It does seem the Twins missed out on a market inefficiency by not trading with Beane the last couple if years. There's still time.
  20. drjim
    Promising to me in that a reasonable extension can be struck between Dozier and the Twins. If he likes it here and there likely won't be multiple good teams pursuing him after next year, perhaps he'll sign.
  21. drjim
    I take this as a promising sign that a reasonable extension can be worked out. The better teams in the league don't have a strong need for a 2b in the immediate future.
  22. drjim
    Obviously. But not clear where he gets it.
  23. drjim
    Link for revenue and player expense here here: https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ 2008: $149MM revenue $81MM payroll 54% 2009: $158MM revenue $80MM payroll 51% 2010: $162MM revenue $83MM payroll 51% 2011: $213MM revenue $112MM payroll 53% 2012: $213MM revenue $121MM payroll 57% 2013: $214MM revenue $122MM payroll 57% 2014: $221MM revenue $97MM payroll 44% 2015: $223MM revenue $106MM payroll 48% 2016: $240MM revenue $125MM payroll 52% 2017: $249MM revenue $123MM payroll 49% I didn't look at other franchises, but I imagine it is a similar range. What I do think looking at this is that they may have a little bit of flexibility going into this next year, they seem to be a little light compared to historical trends, which isn't especially surprising considering they are at the end of a rebuild. They should have enough money to add a Lynn/Cobb type, another 1 year starter and a pretty good reliever. As money comes off the books (Mauer, ESan, Hughes), they can add Dozier if they do desire, expecting that revenues should keep creeping up.
  24. drjim
    Why would they trade Dozier now? I assume they plan on competing and they don't have a ready replacement. I think they have a shot at a 3 year extension. If Dozier balks, him walking next year is not a disaster.
  25. drjim
    3 years would make sense if they can pull it off. There is somewhat of a glut of good 2b and he is pretty much at his peak now, so perhaps it would make sense for Dozier to take the deal.
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