drjim

Those work. If they are going to win, the new front office better be better at the first and more willing to do the second. Both certainly remain to be seen. If they fail at the first, it won't be from a lack of infrastructure change.

So now it's about "good teams" and avoiding signing free agents? So now the Twins don't sign free agents?

This is an oft repeated line by you, but it's not especially accurate. 7 of the last 8 world series champions did not have a comparable signing to Darvish. It would be more the exception rather than the rule to win the world series after a signing like this. There are many ways for a team to be successful.

Hard to envision how that plan could go awry.

Why not? It was a serious offer, but a long shot that a bigger market wouldn't trump it.

That's a reality of the market/revenue/payroll situation.

Depends how you value an opt out, and how much you trust the "consensus". And it wasn't a drop in years.

I don't think they were ever willing to go 6 years, and definitely weren't willing to do an opt out.

I do think a willingness to trade prospects (when in competition) will be one clear way that the current front office is different than the previous regime.

I'm jumping in to say I definitely agree with you on both of these points. I suspect our disagreements are whether 6/160 is a good contract for the Twins to give out (I don't) and whether their actual offer (as best we can tell) should be considered serious (I do think it should be considered serious).

But that is kind of the point. They can regroup and throw more numbers at the rotation and take a chance they click. And starters will be available at the deadline.

And they were serious. But it was always a long shot and a matter of whether the big boys would step in or not.

You have observed previous free agent markets before right? The lateness of this throws it a little off, but it was always going to start moving after Darvish signed. And Heyman and Rosenthal aren't exactly under the radar guys with their reporting.

I don't really see it that way, but to each their own. Delusional strikes me as over the top. They never actually said they were going to sign Darvish. He was actually a priority and they made a good run at him, but that doesn't mean they would do everything possible, and they got beat out by a larger market that was a better team and a better fit for Darvish.

They'll likely never sign a top outside free agent under the current system, unless they get lucky on a price drop. Or they want to seriously damage the team a couple of years later.

I think he was a priority, but they had a limit, and it wasn't likely to be enough. They should have downplayed it a little more.

I really don't know what the hype was about. Does make them look silly.

I would be pretty surprised of they don't have a plan b. I don't think it was Darvish or bust.

Pretty much. I never thought tjey were going to sign Darvish, but thought it was worth it to stay engaged if his price dropped. Teams in markets the size of the Twins don't have success with free agent contracts that stretch them too much, especially for pitchers.

I'll fault them when more pitchers beyond Darvish come off the board and they end up with nothing.

Nope. By year 4 it won't make sense, though the Cubs will be able to eat it easier than the Twins would have.

I didn't like the hype, but why would you read that as the Twins willing to pay whatever it takes to get Darvish?

What isn't in evidenve? The reporting on the offers or the fact the other pitchers were always going to wait (which they did!)?

Thid is potentially true. depending on how the Cubs respond, or what the true value of the opt out is for Yu. But consensus aside, it's not a good contract for the Twins.

I still don't understand your point in the first graph. Twins knew what he wanted, had a limit they'd go to, and hoped no one would beat them. Perfectly acceptable beyond the hype.