jmlease1

I don't think Correa is moving off SS in the next 3-4 years. It's going to be interesting to see how everyone fits in with Martin, Julien, Lee, and Lewis knocking on the door and the infield already potentially filled with MLB quality players. But that's a problem I want to have, and why I don't worry about Gallo only being on a one year deal, Kepler close to running his deal out, Polanco close to running his deal out, etc.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of douchebags.

Really, really interesting prospect. If he comes back well from TJ, he's got the stuff to be an ace. The fastball plays, the slider is excellent, and the changeup already looks functional with upside and there just aren't that many starters that walk in with a 3 pitch mix that you feel confidence in. He's far enough removed from his surgery that his outings this season should actually matter; this isn't a guy who is 9 months to a year removed from his surgery. He should be ready to go, even if he's going to have rust and command challenges from not having pitched games in a long time. I think he'll spend most if not all of the year in Ft. Myers, in part because it's where the team's whole complex is and they'll have all the resources to keep a good watch on him, provide appropriate therapy etc while still letting him pitch a full season of games. If he gets through this season with no major set-backs, I think he's going to move up quickly. of course, I'm Mr. Positivity. But he does that the tools to be great, and would have been a no-doubt top-10 pick if not for the TJ. I think it was a great pick and signing.

I think Joe Mauer is 100% Hall-worthy and should go in on the first ballot. He probably won't, because there's an irritating number of writers (fortunately many of who are finally aging off as voters) who have this "thing" about the first-ballot and it's hard to get in as it is. It will sadly likely cost Mauer some votes. (along with the idiots who won't vote for anyone until they get to vote for Pete Rose or other nonsense).

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/26-man-roster Unless something changes, twins will not be keeping 14 pitchers.

C: 2019, in a walk. garver just raked, even if he only played 93 games 1B: push? Cron wasn't impressive, Kirilloff is coming off a major injury 2B: 2023. Polanco is better than Schoop SS: 2023. Correa is better than 2019 Polanco, who hit less than Correa and isn't nearly the defender 3B: 2019. Miranda could be great, but Sano had a big year. LF: 2023. This was the start of "Overrated Eddie"; not great at the plate and awful in the field. Gallo is better CF: 2023. Buxton wasn't Buxton yet RF: 2019. Kepler had a fluke year, IMHO but it doesn't mean he wasn't great. DH 2019. Nelson Cruz laughed at Father Time. Position players are pretty even head to head...YMMV on the aggregate? Rotation: SP1: 2019 Berrios was excellent, gotta take him over Gray SP2: 2019 Odorizzi had a career year. I think Lopez might be our 32? SP3: 2023 I'll take Ryan over Pineda SP4: 2023 Gibson wasn't that good and Maeda should be better SP5: 2023 Mahle in a walk over Perez (blegh) Bullpen: A little hard to judge? 2019 was very good with its top guys: Rogers, Duffey, and May. but Duran, Lopez, and Jax aren't bad. i think 2023 bullpen is deeper with Thielbar, Moran, and Alcala over Parker (who got cut), Harper, and Romo? It's an interesting argument. They are very different clubs: 2023 has deeper pitching and much better defense. 2019 had a great offense and all the power in the universe. It's important to think about them in context; Rosario's .800 OPS would have looked great in 2022 and might be excellent for a corner OF in 2023, but in the juiced ball year of 2019...it wasn't impressive (OPS+ of 107, worse than Nick Gordon in 2022)

Gallo is an interesting idea. He's a better baserunner than you think, he will see a bunch of pitches, he'll take walks...and after the first inning it's all a scramble anyways. I'd probably lean towards Polanco, who has good on base skills and as a switch hitter balances the lineup on the run. Buxton makes sense if the team intends to use his speed on the bases...which I dearly love to see and recognize it may not be worth the punishment. I'd say no on Kepler unless he shows he can get on base more; .317 is not good enough IMHO. he does see plenty of pitches, but he's also the winner of the annual "Most Likely to Bounce Out Weakly to Second" Award 3 years running...

Don't think we're allowed 14 pitchers any longer? Thought part of the deal (which was put in abeyance due to COVID) for the 26 man rosters was no more than 13 pitchers? Am I wrong about this? I could be wrong about this. (but even if we are allowed, I wouldn't think we'd carry 14 pitchers and we shouldn't.)

because we're not allowed to have 14 pitchers, and adding another starter at the expense of a reliever is likely to leave us short, especially since most of our relievers aren't more than 1 inning guys. It won't hurt Ober to have him start in Saint Paul.

Polanco is a reasonable fit there, although he'd be great in #2 spot as a switch hitter. But there's nothing wrong with a lineup that goes: Polanco Correa Buxton Gallo Kirilloff Miranda Larnach Vazquez Kepler It would be great if Kirilloff is hitting so well you could slide him in to the #3 spot, but he's probably not ready for that. But you don't need to go strictly L-R to protect yourself with the decline of the LOOGY, etc.

Cruz is going into his age 24 season and would need to be added to the 40-man soon, and he's averaged 6 BB/9 in his minor league career. he hasn't dipped below 5.5 BB/9 since he was 18 in rookie league ball. He's likely to be available in the Rule 5 draft soon if you really want him back. Sisk probably will pitch in MLB this season...but will he be effective? His control is pretty rough too, he's going to be 26 and until last season he's been both very wild and very hittable ever since rookie ball. I'm not going to pretend that Taylor is a good hitter (he's not), but he's not Florimon at the plate, who was so bad in his prime that he should have been considered unplayable. I still can't believe we were desperate at SS that he was our primary SS in 2013 but it certainly helps explain why we lost 96 games that year.

Gallo is probably our best defender of the corner OFs, though? Unless Kirilloff shows he's not healthy in spring training, I expect him to be on the MLB roster and 1B seems like the best fit for him. Gordon's not great defensively anywhere, really, but he's functional in a lot of places and has developed a solid hit tool now that he's gotten a little more power in his swing. He's got a lot more value if he can maintain viability in the infield, especially since Farmer is our only other infielder?

Kirilloff is basically going to be playing 1B/DH rather than the OF (he wasn't much out there and might be a superior defender at 1B with consistent work), Larnach is probably the starting DH against RHP, but will certainly get time in the corners when Kepler or Gallo need a break. Gordon will likely find more time in the infield, since Farmer is the only other player we have that can play 2B or 3B. There's likely enough playing time to go around what with the injury potential, but also the desire to keep players fresh. Kepler could still be moved, but the roster is still plenty functional. Dang, the OF defense could be amazing.

Gordon will get time somewhere; he hit well enough last season and can play multiple positions, so they'll find room for his bat. He'll probably get less OF time, but I'm sure they'll use everybody on the roster, especially with only 4 bench spots. He can pinch hit and stay in the game often, and they're going to want to keep everyone rested and fresh.

I wish Taylor could hit better? He's an excellent defensive player, but he's likely to be about as effective at the plate as Celestino, if not worse. Now, he's also likely to be much better on defense (Celestino is ok in CF, but still needs work). Price seems fine; I was intrigued by Sisk, but seems like the Twins don't think he's going to find enough control to be effective. Cruz is interesting, but can't find the plate either. It's impressive how he hunts Ks, but he was pretty hittable last season in addition to walking everyone. Not sure either of these guys are going to come back to haunt us any time soon? It's great insurance for Buxton going out for an extended period, or coverage for him to DH regularly. But it does add some pressure on guys like Kirilloff, Gallo, Jeffers, Larnach, and Kepler to up their offensive game this season. Twins are going for it though, and I like it.

I think SWR might be ahead of Winder at this point. Paddack is unlikely to pitch this year in MLB, I think. they're certainly not going to rush him back. Maeda is starting, so Ober is likely in Saint Paul. Even if you have a relatively healthy group you still probably want 10 good options for 5 spots to get you through the year. twins are getting close to that. I'd say the starting depth chart looks something like: Gray Lopez Ryan Mahle Maeda Ober Varland SWR Winder Balazovic Henriquez Sands Enlow Paddack doesn't get on the list until he's healthy for me. but that depth is pretty good. Can't really put Canterino on there either since he can't stay healthy. to me the options don't start to wobble too badly until you get past SWR; not sure Winder can hold up as a starter, Balazovic had a really rough year, unclear how good Henriquez is for me, Sands looks like more of a bullpen option, and Enlow came off the 40-man. But that's how it's going to be once you get past 7-8 guys. questions. It will be very interesting to see how guys like Prielipp, Raya, and Festa develop this year.

I'll take the over. I think that's a coin flip? Would hate to bet it either way. Seems likely? A little unfair; any player hitting 20 HRs in 100 games is a lot. I'll definitely go no here. Miami will be lucky to get 2 all-stars again, making it tougher on Arraez, Correa or Buxton are the most likely all-star picks for the Twins, and Polanco is a better defender at 2B than Arraez.

It's an interesting question, because right now I'm not quite sure who last position player roster spot goes to? I'm guessing Larnach is the opening day DH if no other moves happen; if healthy he's a MLB quality bat and better than expected in the field. I'm assuming Farmer, Jeffers, and Gordon are locks for the bench and the team will only carry 13 position players. Kirilloff seems probable to start at 1B right now, and there's a spot now for Larnach. Do the Twins add Celestino as coverage for Buxton in CF? Do they want a better bat option? Right now, I think it's Larnach (unless we face a LHP on opening day. then we might actually put Farmer in the DH spot)

Arraez did pretty well at 1B defensively this season, especially considering having basically never played the position before as a pro. As a 2B, he's below average. not awful, but not particularly good. Similar at 3B: acceptable, but not good defensively. the fact that he can play multiple positions in the infield adds value beyond just the results; positional flexibility is a very useful intangible benefit for a team. however, the Twins very clearly felt that it was going to be hard to keep Arraez on the field playing 2B or 3B and that his knees/legs needed the time at 1B/DH to stay in the lineup. Miami has him at 2B right now, so I guess we'll find out if the Twins were right on this one. But if he's missing more time and/or needs to slide down to 1B/DH, the need for more offensive production jumps up. As noted, even with Arraez's batting title, his overall OPS put him in the middle of the pack among 1Bs last season. And that was his best and healthiest (in terms of games played) as a professional. he doesn't hit the ball hard, and there's little evidence that he ever will on a consistent basis. He's got a great skill in making contact, avoiding Ks, getting on base, working counts, and collecting hits. there's real value in that, and it's also very fun to watch. But it does limit his upside, and it's more than fair to worry about his health. It was painful to see him limping through games last season, though I give him credit for fighting through it when we were so short-handed. but those leg injuries mean he's not adding value on the bases, and make it hard to see him getting through the season at 2B. I can understand people calling Lopez a #3 starter...but he pitched more like a #2 last season. Now, that was also his healthiest and most successful season (from a value standpoint) as well, so maybe we won't get more or even that much from lopez, but there's a very fair argument to be made that right now he should be seen as the 2nd best pitcher in the rotation, behind Gray. personally, I wanted any pitching acquisition to be better than Gray...but when the argument is now whether Mahle or Maeda is the 5th guy in the rotation, then that's a pretty deep group and a significant improvement over the rotation we had last season, which had a ton of starts made by Dylan Bundy (who was well below average), Chris Archer (who couldn't throw enough innings and was unquestionably below average), Devin Smeltzer (who was more lucky than good last season), and Josh Winder (who had results more like we should have expected from Smeltzer). I'll be a lot happier fan if those 77 starts are eaten up by Lopez, Mahle, and Maeda.

It's hard to get too excited about significant improvement from Kepler, because it seems pretty unlikely. Is it possible? Sure, but to date he's only really ever had 1 good season as a hitter. And that season was certainly appears to have had a juiced baseball, but regardless something happened that season that sent a substantially higher number of Kepler fly balls into the seats and without that factor he's been a below average hitter. (yes, he was above average in 2020, but that small sample season probably isn't representative of who he is as a player; that season he also was relatively poor defensively and it all likely had more to do with a smaller sample than anything else. Over a full season he defensive stats likely would have risen and his offense would have slipped) He's a fine defensive player in RF, with a strong arm and excellent range. But there's real flaws in his approach and execution at the plate. there are some nice looking "red numbers" on his Baseball savant page, but he's in the white on some pretty important ones: avg exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit %. The fact that his max exit velocity is in the 93rd % means that he tattooed the snot out of ONE ball...but most of the time he didn't hit it that hard. It's great that he didn't chase the ball out of the zone, took walks, and wasn't a K machine...but looking at his barrel % & hard-hit % it matches up to the eye test rather well: Kepler hit a frustrating amount of weak grounders and lazy flies. the shift functionally going away will help some of those grounders to bleed into hits...but how many? (it's been suggested that over the course of a season it'll likely be 5-10. That doesn't move the needle much for Kepler as an offensive force, even if you added 10 hits to last season's injury shortened season) To have a good season, Kepler needs to hit the ball harder consistently and it's hard to say there's much evidence that he will. He's still not a bad player, but a significant part of his value will be in his defense and his ability to get walks.

Cruz is a true professional, a great guy, and is going to turn 43 around midseason. He wasn't good last season, wasn't good after getting dealt to TB, and any hoped for bounceback effect has to reckon with the fact that Time is undefeated. I think the deal SD offered was perfectly reasonable; they didn't have a DH locked in, Cruz is a great professional to add to the clubhouse with some young players, and at $1M it's easy enough to let him go if he stinks. Sano has really struggled with injuries. He's increasingly looking like a DH with that problem and his generally poor defense at 1B, and he's got a pattern of getting out of synch at the plate where he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a %$%*&# boat for lengthy periods. But he's not that old and it hasn't been that long since he's also had stretches where he smashes the hell out of the ball, and he's always had enough strike zone judgment to draw walks. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a team gave him a Cruz-like "prove it" contract. I just don't think either is a good fit for MN any longer. I think we're wise not to have a permanent DH and to be able to cycle players through when we want their bats in the lineup but want to give them a break from the field (Buxton definitely comes to mind here). Both of these guys have red flags whether they can produce enough to be a quality DH (Cruz with age and declining skills, Sano with injuries and inconsistency). It's time to move on from both. If I had to bet on which one has the better season...I guess if I was forced I'd pick Cruz: better track record, good professional, less injury history. Sano's younger with more upside, but plenty of red flags. I don't think either is going to be particularly good, though. If you set the OPS for either player in 2023 at .725 I would bet the under.

Lee wins this going away on the fielding side. But I look forward to this competition on hitting. Haven't forgotten how Miranda absolutely destroyed it in 2021, and he really held his own in his MLB debut after a pretty awful first month that has sent a lot of rookies spiraling down back to the minors for a re-set. That said, I do think Brooks Lee's bat is special. Could be a lot of fun to watch them both in 2024.

You literally wrote off the prospects and said this is a one for one deal. I've seen Salas ranked as high as the Marlins #3 prospect and as low as #7. Most evaluators seem to have him in their top 5, but even if he should ranked at the lowest evaluator you can apparently find...he's still #7. he's considered to be a borderline global Top 100 guy (some systems have him in, several him outside looking in). That's a good prospect, and acting like he has no value and the only thing that matters is whether Arraez is "better" than Lopez is silly. And this isn't about Fangraphs. Yes, they like this deal for the Twins quite a bit (note: their evaluator is a fan of Arraez) but so does almost everywhere else.

Salas is 19 and had already performed well in low A and held his own in high A. There's a reason he's been considered as one of the Marlins top 5 prospects. Chourio is a lottery ticket at 17 to be sure, but he's the last part of this deal. The bigger issue here is you're throwing out any value of the prospects not based on scouting or statistical assessments but because you like Arraez, the way he hits, and are mad that the Twins dealt him. You can't pretend the prospects the Twins got back have no value just to run down the deal. When people are talking about national media here, we're not just talking about the bobos at ESPN who only watch East Coast games and the Dodgers and think that wearing Yankee pinstripes adds extra magical value to any player. We're also talking about the analysts at places like Fangraphs, who do dig in on every player and always have scouting and statistical data to back up their analysis. Despite all the injuries last season, the Twins were almost exactly league average when it came to scoring runs last season. That's not "struggling". They managed a top 10 OPS+ last year (again, despite all the injuries). For most of the season the offense was a strength of the club...until they had to start their 10th choice in the OF and so on. (BTW, when the Twins offense started to decline, Arraez wasn't fixing it, he was a culprit. Maybe you missed how much worse of a hitter he was Aug-Oct?) I don't know if Lopez has peaked or not; it's a fair question. (if he has, he could still be as good as any starter we have on the roster) But if you're going to consider it, then you also have to consider the same for Arraez, who has at least as many injury concerns as Lopez and probably more questions about his upside, based on his defensive limitations and lack of power.

Right now the Twins have shown more success in developing hitters over pitchers and have more depth in their team and system on the hitting side, especially infielders. I don't subscribe to a view of it's always or even usually better to trade bats for arms; I think trades have to always be looked at in terms of the overall value of the deal as well as in terms of strengths and weaknesses in the system. I think this deal makes a lot of sense for the Twins, even though I will miss Arraez a lot. More rotation depth is good. Lopez has the ability to be a quality playoff starter and was a legit #2 last season. With Gray, Mahle, and Maeda free agents in 2024, having someone like Lopez to front the rotation in 2024 makes a ton of sense. There's a real possibility that we've seen the top of Arraez's value, which is still significant; he had an excellent year last season. But if he's going to struggle to play the field because of injuries and be limited to primarily 1B/DH or spend considerable time on the IL...that's a real limitation. It's hard to see him adding much in the way of power, and he struggles against LHP. The Twins also have a number of prospects that are close to being ready that can fill spots in the infield and show real promise as hitters. Martin has a lot of the same onbase skills that made Arraez so valuable and much greater speed and defensive ability. Julien is another onbase machine who has shown more power and power potential. Royce Lewis has far more speed even with his injuries and more defensive viability. Brooks Lee is doing everything right in the minors and could continue to rise very very fast. In Kirilloff, Kepler, and Gallo we have additional players who can fill the slot at 1B right now. So we're not creating a hole to fill one. I really liked Arraez as a Twin. I hate to see him go. But we have to be honest about his limitations and his strengths, not just make this about how fun it was to see him at the plate. He wasn't the Twins "best hitter", even with the batting title. He had flaws in his game and real injury concerns. He was also a very good player and a very fun one. Perfectly fine to miss him and not want to see him go, but you have to trade value to get value and the Twins got good value without messing up the team.