jmlease1

Some of this might depend on where you land on his changeup. If that is/becomes a plus pitch then I think even KLaw would be looking at him a little differently. It's fair to be concerned on whether he will have a problem with hard contact if he doesn't have those plus pitches...but as noted above, this wasn't an issue for him in AAA. He's got good deception in his delivery, but will that big figured out once he's in MLB and guys get a lot more tape on him and experience it? So far that hasn't really happened to Joe Ryan. I'm a fan of SWR. He's has some real bumps in his development path that were outside of his control. Traded at 18 during his first full year as a pro in 2019. No minor league ball in 2020. Jumped up to AA after not pitching for a year. Sent to the Olympics but didn't get to pitch, then traded again in 2021. Missed extended time again last season because of COVID (don't underestimate this; I'm six weeks past my initial diagnosis and I'm still struggling some days) but got promoted twice and still made his MLB debut. It's not exactly how you would draw it up for developing a high school pitcher...but he keeps getting guys out. the Twins had to basically rebuild him in 2021 after they got him in the trade, and they (and he) deserve credit for getting him back on track. It will also be interesting to see where his slider and curve end up. If both can be solid pitches for him, now we're looking at a guy who has four pitches he can use and one of the ways you make up for not having as much pure stuff is to have more options to go to. It's much easier to sit on a pitch if you know the player only really throws 2 of them. Sometimes being able to throw 4 pitches can make them all a little more effective because guys won't be sure what's coming, especially if there's good deception in the delivery. We'll see. The production has been good so far, he's only 22, and starting in AAA is a good place for him this season. Right now I think he's the 3rd guy to call up (assuming Ober & Varland both start in AAA) if needed in the rotation and I have to say that makes me feel pretty good, because 2 years ago i would have been over the moon to have a pitcher like him be the FIRST call up from AAA. If his change continues to develop, he can keep his mechanics in line, and sharpen up one or two of his other pitches he could be a very good starter. I mean, where would he be, if his development path hadn't gotten knocked around by outside forces basically every year?

seriously. Once they've assessed his health against being back throwing full-time on the mound and built up his arm, he could advance quickly, but 2025 is a much more likely arrival date, and that's without significant setbacks.

I thought this was a really smart draft pick. there's definitely risk attached here, but the upside is immense and when you nail a sure thing with your first round pick there's room to add some risk/reward with your second rounder. I expect he'll spend several weeks at the complex in Ft. Myers, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him moved over to A-ball (which is conveniently in ft. Myers as well). they'll watch his innings carefully, but he's an exciting pitcher with serious upside. he might not come back all the way from injury, he might be a guy who gets hurt a lot and never lives into the talent. but there's no guarantee that will happen. It's just one risk factor, and weighed against his potential, I think it's a great pick and when you consider the ceiling he makes a lot of sense here.

Someone will still dropped, though: we get 13 pitchers on the active roster, period. Pagan is the most on the bubble for me (and everyone else that's not in twins management as far as I can tell), but if you keep 7 starters, then you only get 6 relievers. A piggyback strategy made sense to me last season when we were running out Archer (who couldn't get past the 4th inning much of the time) or Bundy (whom we didn't want pitching any deeper than the 5th most of the time), but we our top 5 starters i think there's more belief and faith that they can go deeper more consistently. The other issue is whether or not the guys who have trained as a starter and prep in that way for a known starting assignment can adapt to warming up in a very different fashion and coming in mid-game. Maeda could do it...but has incentives tied to his number of starts, which could be an issue. I do think the twins should be looking at having 1-2 pitchers in their bullpen that are able to go 2+ innings consistently and be planned to deploy as those bridge pitchers (and would love to drop Pagan in favor of that!)...but I don't think that's the best way to manage Varland's career right now.

I think you're doing Martin an injustice here: being tagged as unlikely to stick at SS isn't "defensively challenged"; Martin has the speed and skill to be at least average in CF and plus in the corners, and potentially a plus at 2B (a little unclear at 3B; he might not have the arm for it, but his range could be great). If Salas has a defensive profile similar to Martin it mostly means he's unlikely to stick at SS, not that he's going to be a poor defender.

You're absolutely right that a lot of evaluators will value projectability and tools (especially for younger prospects at lower levels) over production. And I don't think it's unreasonable to put a little more value on production (I'd argue it's less subjective than evaluating tools, but getting the context right for that production can be a little more slippery). And some of it about ceiling vs floor too: the ceiling is probably quite a bit higher for Salas as a toolsy teenager in the low minors than for Wallner, who was never really young for any level he played at in pro baseball. At the same time, the fact that wallner has already debuted in MLB shows that his floor is already higher than Salas. I think a team's prospect list has to have some balance in it; you hope you're not counting on too many toolsy teenagers to make it happen, nor do you want to be overloaded with guys who may already be close to their ceilings.

Part of Vargas' problem with the Twins was he could only really play 1B or DH (and he wasn't exactly elite defensively at 1B). Mauer was already in place at 1B, and Sano was starting to compete for some of those DH ABs as well. And to be a primary DH you need to hit. Vargas never showed he could do it consistently enough at a high level. Good potential in his first stint in 2014, poor in 2015. Good production in 2016...and then he fell off again in 2017. Maybe he would have done better if he'd been given more consistent opportunities...but he also would have gotten more consistent opportunities if he'd produced better. It's a little surprising he didn't get a chance in 2018, but at the same time...he didn't exactly light the world on fire at AAA and demand the opportunity on a team that needed the help. I'm not that surprised he got a minor league deal, but it's hard to say how much he's got to offer at this point. (Mexican league stats aren't great indicators?) I expected Sano would get signed this offseason, but it sounds like there are still questions about his knee. If he's not healthy, there's not really much reason for a team to give him a major-league deal right now and I'm guessing he's not interested in a minor league one. If he's healthy, he's worth taking a flyer on, even if the odds are good he'll break down again at some point. With the universal DH, there's probably at least a few teams that could use his power, but his lack of consistent splits might actually be hurting him right now. I'm guessing teams looking at him are trying to add RH power to punish LHP in more of a limited role, and that's not really Sano. When he's going good, he hits everybody and hits them into orbit, and when he's going poorly he can't hit water if he fell out of a $*&@% boat. If the knee isn't sound, then he's probably not going to hit anyone? Good luck to them both. Vargas always seemed like a good dude, and I never bore the hate for Sano that others did.

I think it's hard to push a prospect that is showing up in respected top 100 rankings (or just outside of it) much further down. ESPN has Salas at 94, for example. At his age, a lot of it is based on projection and he certainly has that. When you factor in his upside, it's hard to say there are 10 better prospects in the twins system than salas right now.

Right now, who would you bet on being more successful in 2023: Varland or Mahle, Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Lopez? Which one of those guys are you dropping from the rotation to let Varland "play ball!"? Varland only has 5 solid starts in MLB, 4 starts in AAA, options left, and work remaining on his offspeed pitches. Being a "hometown favorite" (btw, he pitched DII and few people knew who he was until the twins drafted him) is a bad reason to value a player over others. he should start in AAA. He'll get opportunities this season and likely be in the rotation full-time no later than 2024 if he continues to perform.

It's not like Miranda went from being a 230lb slugger to a 170lb slap hitter. This is fairly normal stuff from players after their first experience in MLB: seeing what other guys are doing to get in/stay in shape, be successful, not wear down, etc. I've seen absolutely nothing to suggest that the twins are significantly changing Miranda's approach at the plate.

I think they would have looked at Radke's WHIP, his ability to keep the ball in the park, generate groundballs, his plus changeup, his durability in moving up from low A to AA in 2 seasons and thought "this guy's a prospect!" Radke had an excellent season in AA at age 21 and got promoted to MLB the next season (likely a year too early, but the 1995 Twins stunk, needed the help, and they could afford to let him learn on the job). I don't think they would have written off Brad Radke just because he didn't have high K/9 and a blazing fastball. I think most of the posters complaining about the Twins pitching today would also complain about Radke "not being an ace" if Twins daily had been around back then too, so... Varland has enough gas to compete, but he'll need to sharpen the offspeed stuff and cut down the walks to be mentioned in the same sentence as Brad Radke.

I like Varland. I think he needs to sharpen his offspeed pitches and reduce his walks to really be successful in MLB, but he certainly has shown that he can adapt and grow as a pitcher so far during his career. If he can keep building out that change-up, for example, as an out pitch I think that will really help him. The fastball plays, even if it's not a plus velocity (he can dial it up to 97mph, though, so there's capacity) and I think he someone who can chew up innings and get results. Avoid free passes and that WHIP starts looking much better. He's a heck of a success story. Great developmental work by the team, and finding those lower-round, less heralded picks and turning them into real prospects is incredibly important. Varland's got the right make up to be a success and showed he can improve his tools through work and process. Love it. He'll be pitching in the rotation this season and be locked in for next season, I think.

as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player". This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.

The narrative that the Twins were screwed against LHP probably took hold last season when the injuries started really piling up and the offense really struggled in August and September. heck, in my head I thought for sure the Twins had lost 3 straight to a bad Texas Rangers squad that ran out 3 crappy lefties and ate our lunch. Turns out memory is bad: we only faced 1 lefty starter during those 3 games (we in fact beat a crappy lefty in the first game of the series, before dropping the next 3). Maybe the bigger problem hitting anyone was the fact that Jake Cave was starting.

I'm definitely still a fan of Martin, and I hope that he can have a good, healthy season this year to show what he can bring to the table. I like having him in AAA and while I think it's unlikely he'll play much SS in MLB, this isn't a case of a player not having a position: he'd probably be above average at least at 2B, above average in CF, and with his range a plus defender in LF. (not sure how well his arm plays at 3B, but he'd likely field the position well?) he could legitimately be a super-utility player that can cover anywhere except SS & C. We'll see where he lands as a hitter. He'll definitely make a lot of contact, draw some walks, and get hit by pitches, so the on-base % will be good...can it be great? It could be. If it's not, then it would help a lot if he shows some gap power to prop that slugging up. He doesn't need to hit a ton of HRs to succeed, but if he collects enough doubles and triples with that speed to land consistently in the .380-.400 range then it'll be enough. Power development is often the last tool to come along, so he might be able to keep inching it up.

Part of the problem is Urshela doesn't profile very well as a utility infielder, especially based on what we think we know of how the Twins view him. They don't think he can play SS as anything other than in an emergency, they don't appear to see him as a 2B option (and he's only played 23 innings there in his MLB career, none since 2017), and his bat plays less well at 1B (presuming he can play a good enough 1B...which seems likely, but is unproven, since he's had a total of 7 innings there in his MLB career, likely as an emergency option). Farmer shows out positional flexibility much better and frankly so does Gordon: Urshela only has 100+ innings at 2 positions in his MLB career. Farmer & Gordon (in only 2 seasons for Gordon) have 4. You can argue that's because Urshela is a starting quality 3B and that's where's he's been slotted in for his career...but he didn't become that guy until his 4th year in the majors. I don't disagree that the roster is still a bit lopsided with LH corner OF. But keeping Urshela and dropping Kepler only fixes part of that equation (more playing time for the other LH OF); there still isn't a good role for Urshela on this team unless you either push Miranda back to 1B or drop Miranda to the bench, which the Twins seem disinclined to do. I supported keeping Urshela on this team, but essentially swapping his roster spot for Farmer with Correa back as the starting SS makes sense to me. Gallo has always been the move that's seemed off to a lot of us, but it's worth noting that Gallo has fairly even splits, and doesn't need to be given the day off against every lefty that comes to town.

If the argument is we let Urshela go for too little...I get that. He was a quality player last season and the 3B market was thin. Of course, he's getting paid a pretty decent amount this season and there may be questions on whether or not he was going to be able to repeat the performance. But from the Twins perspective, the decision was about SS, not the OF. The Twins have less confidence in Urshela at SS than they do Nick Gordon (and they have very little faith in Gordon playing SS). They see Urshela as a 3B, and it's unclear if they see him as a viable player at 1B, though it doesn't seem unreasonable. But they felt confident in Miranda after his rookie season, so if he's got the starting gig at 3B, how does Urshela fit in a bench role? Along side Nick Gordon...not very well. If Farmer was going to be the starting SS, they needed a backup for the spot and Urshela can't do that (neither can Gordon). With Correa back in the fold, they still need a backup and Farmer fits that role very well, with proven positional flexibility in a number of spots. There's only so many spots on the roster, especially with the team carrying 13 pitchers. Urshela's a nice player, but Miranda is younger and cheaper, and has more upside. I still question the Gallo decision, but once that move happened there's just no room for another 3B on the roster.

I'm guessing he and other teams are all playing the waiting game. He doesn't want a minor-league "prove it" deal, teams he wants to go to are tight on their 40-man rosters right now, and the money will be better if someone has a significant injury in spring training. If he's training properly then it wouldn't take that long to get a reliever ready to go for game action, so he can wait without any real harm. He's an interesting flyer. I'd probably be ok gambling on the upside if it meant dumping Pagan, whom can't be trusted in any kind of high leverage situation anyways.

I wasn't looking to trade Urshela, and he's a useful player, but his value also declines if he's playing 1B same as Gallo or Kepler playing over there. And while Urshela provided more bWAR than Kepler last season, a fairly significant chunk of the difference was the fact that Urshela was healthy all season. (and there's no guarantee Urshela will be any good playing 1B; he's played exactly 2 innings there in his MLB career. Odds are decent, but for all Urshela's supposed positional flexibility, 90% of his games have come at 3B) I think it's likely that the Twins saw Urshela as basically being a 3B and felt Miranda was ready to take over the position. As a bench option, Farmer is a better fit (and maybe so is Gordon, especially if he could be an option to fill in at 3B against RHP) because he has a LOT more positional flexibility, especially at SS.

He seems like a solid pick with potential. He's got good contact skills and it's not surprising to see him collect walks in Rk & low A ball, but still good to see. For him to be more than a utility guy will require him to add power, though and it is a little concerning that he showed so little of it in his first taste at pro ball. It's possible that his senior season at VT was a bit of a fluke, and if it is, it will really limit him unless he's able to collect a LOT more singles. I don't mind seeing a college bat with some positional flexibility and potentially a higher floor coming in here.

RIP, Mike. Cancer sucks.

I struggle with knowing how to evaluate guys like Mercedes; 18 years old coming off rookie ball? You could tell me he's top ten or down in the 20's and I would probably go "sure?" Great start, and nice to see a guy with great speed showing some skill at the plate, but he's got a lot of levels to go. Festa looks like a player to watch this season. He took a significant leap last year and it'll be really interesting to see how he does in AA. The fastball looks legit and it's impressive to see him add the velocity. If he can refine his off-speed pitches, he could be another Varland-type player. If Wallner makes enough contact, he'll be legit. If he doesn't, then he's more like a left-handed Brent Rooker. I expect he'll dominate AAA, just not sure if he can handle MLB pitching consistently. Miller looks the part of a SS; it'll be interesting to see how his hit tool develops this season. He seems to be learning the strike zone pretty well, but he'll need some more hits. Might come as he matures and gets stronger. I expect to see him in high A this year. Canterino just needs health, but those bastards at Rice might have ruined his arm. He's got all the talent in the world, but I don't know if he can stay healthy enough to start. It's a shame.

Sure, but the question is about depth. And after last season's adventures (where we were already on our 10th starter before June, as noted above), clearly depth matters. I don't think anyone is saying the Twins have a better rotation than Cleveland, but the depth we have (both in MLB and in AAA) arguably makes us better able to withstand injuries this season. Chicago might be in big trouble if any of their starters get hurt/suspended early. Lynn only made 21 starts last season and now he's 36. Clevinger might have Bauer-ed his season.

since this topic is about the OF, I'm going to skip over all the other stuff, but I'm unclear why you're wondering about our CF position. Buxton is an elite player when he's on the field, Taylor is an elite defender in CF and starter quality at the position (and he's the backup), they have 3 other guys on the 26 man roster right now who can play CF in Gordon, Gallo, and Kepler, and Celestino is waiting in AAA. This is the deepest CF we've had in quite a long time. So what exactly are you wondering about?

They 100% do not think Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. If they were convinced of that, Gallo would likely not be here, they would not have looked at dealing Kepler in the offseason. They know that's a fluke year. They are thinking that he will hit with a little more power than last season, which was far and away his worst power production as a major leaguer, and betting that he'll still play quality defense, take walks, and hit around .230. (BTW, Gallo did basically replicate those 2019 numbers for like 2/3 of a season in Texas in 2021. I doubt the front office expects to see that, but it's hardly crazy to think he might produce a season like the 2021 total, and that 121 OPS+ would have tied for 4th on the Twins last season. It won't be aesthetically pleasing to a lot of fans, but it might be productive...)