jmlease1

who are you dropping from the bullpen? because that's where they have to take a player off if they keep 6 starters. The rule is in place this year: max 13 pitchers. They clearly like having 8 guys in the bullpen, and despite the fondest wishes from the fanbase, they're sticking with Pagan. So who goes? Megill? Moran?

I hope beyond hope Buxton has a healthy season. he's the most exciting Twins player in a very long time, a highlight waiting to happen. And everything we know says he's a good dude too.

I probably would start the transition on Sands now; if no starter gets dinged during camp the AAA rotation is already full with Winder, Varland, Woods Richardson, Henriquez, Balazovic, and Sanchez...where is Sands going to get a start? I think it's fair to not move Winder yet, but Sands really looks like a reliever to me if he's going to make it.

How about leaving the guy who was a platinum glove winner 2 years ago stay at SS until he plays himself off it, especially not in favor of a guy who has never played SS as well as Correa? Don't get stuck on the supposed "bad wheel"; SF & NY were using that to try and forecast 8-10 years down the road, not 2-5. Correa was willing to slide down to 3B in NY because they already had Lindor at SS. He's not going to move for Brooks Lee (or even Royce Lewis) any time soon. There are real questions about whether Lee can stick at SS (making it in MLB as a SS is really really hard!), especially since his best tools are in his bat. It's no knock on Lee to think that his future is likely at 3B or 2B, and slotting him in at 3B in 2024 next to Correa could be the makings of a fantastic infield. The only guys that are truly guaranteed of a starting job in MLB right now (assuming everyone is healthy) are Buxton, Correa, and Polanco. Everyone else is going to have to sing for their supper, even if their presumed to be the starter for now. Brooks Lee is one of the guys that's going to keep pushing everyone, and that's great. Maybe, just maybe he'll push Polanco too. But Lee is also going to have to compete with Julien, Martin, and Lewis for a spot if/when it opens. Which is a good spot to be in too. Definitely eases any pain of trading Spenser Steer.

Brooks Lee had about as good a start as anyone could have wished for. Love it. Hope he continues to crush it. He looks like he'll slide down to 3B nicely, with Correa ensconced at SS for the next several years at least...and right now it seems unlikely that Lee is going to sit in the minors for very long. I think he could be ready to play in MLB this season. But I find myself caught between two poles on this one: I want him to hit and play so well that he's pushing his way up and knocking on the door with his talent and drive. At the same time, I'm hoping the Twins don't have a bunch of injuries on the MLB roster and guys like Miranda & Polanco are having the seasons they are capable of and the MLB club doesn't need him to rush up to the majors. Maybe he gets some time in MLB in 2023, but I suspect he's starting for us in 2024. I just think he's too good and too driven not to be here sooner rather than later.

The tools are still great, and last season he showed just how well those tools can translate into production. He's been unlucky recently: the pandemic year cost him a developmental season (although the Twins smartly got him into the Saint Paul "camp" as i recall) and then he blew out the knee in a fluke slip. For him to come back into full-bore competition looking as good as ever after essentially 2 years of no real baseball and dealing with a significant injury says a lot. He's got the makeup and the talent to be great (and seems like a really good dude too). I hope he comes back all the way. I think he will; he's got that extra something special about him. I'm not sure where he lands positionally, but I think he might be the super utility guy who plays starters minutes without having a set starting position. (I'm not ready to throw Polanco out with the trash like some people seem to be; he's signed through 2025 and he's a damn good player) A 2024 hitting roster of: Jeffers, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lee, Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Miranda, Martin, Lewis, Vazquez, and Julien could be kinda awesome.

It's a fair way to look at it. I still wouldn't have kept Pagan for all the aggro he'll cause twins fans even before a pitch is thrown this season, but I can understand the logic. And I'm still concerned the team has talked themselves into his improvement being real more than it might actually be because of the sunk-cost fallacy...but as a fungible middle reliever it could work out. I hope I'm wrong and he does well and has turned the proverbial corner. But of all the players on this roster, he's the one I feel the least enthusiastic about making it work, he's the one that instinctively gives me the most heartburn.

Huzzah, a new year has begun and hope reigns eternal! (but not for some people at Twins Daily who prefer to look for the downsides) I'd much rather look at the possibilities for goodness in this squad, especially because it's far too late for any kind of drastic revision. There are some exciting young players who will be getting their chance to show they can stick in MLB, prove they can stay healthy for a full season, etc. I'm looking forward to seeing Kirilloff and Larnach, and hope they can stay healthy. i think it's the only thing holding either of them back. I'm looking forward to seeing how Nick Gordon fits on this roster (a little super utility where he plays occasionally at 2B/3B/LF/RF?) and whether he can improve his hitting another notch, now that his health problems seem to be resolved. I can't wait to see how Miranda does locked in at a primary position and with a year of MLB under his belt. Did he get better in the off-season, or will there be a sophomore slump? Can Jeffers get right and be a real asset in the batters box and not just behind the plate? I'm excited about our veterans in the field: Polanco is an all-star caliber player, Correa and Buxton are MVP talents, and Vazquez bring real steadiness behind the plate. (I'll admit to not being excited about Kepler, who I feel may have already peaked or Gallo who wasn't where I wanted them to go with an OF signing. but I'm rooting for them both!) Michael A. Taylor is a highlight reel waiting to happen in the OF. It's the deepest rotation we've seen in a long time; I can't recall the last time I looked at a Twins roster and thought, "hey even if someone tweaks a hammy in Spring Training...we're good!" I'm a huge Joe Ryan fan: I love watching him pitch. he might not be the best starter on the roster (but then again he could be!), but for me he's the most fun to watch. I'm excited to see what Pablo Lopez brings to the table; he's got serious talent and had a great first half last season. It's great to have Kenta Maeda back. he was great during the pandemic-shortened year, so I'm hoping he's all the way back and ready to roll. We didn't really get to see what Mahle can do, and I wanna see it. Gray is steady as anyone. the bullpen has lightning in it with Duran, who is crazy good. I adore Moran's change-up and how silly it makes guys look. Maybe I'm wrong about Pagan! (I want to be wrong about Pagan?) I think Lopez will be good now that he gets to settle in. there's loads of things to be excited about with this team. I'm exciting about the start of the season and I can't wait to see how they do. yes, there are questions. yes, there are injury concerns. But none of them mean the worst case scenario has to happen. The best case scenario could happen too, and Spring Training is the time to look for the good and enjoy the fact that baseball is coming back to us and that right soon. Go, Twins!

It's 199 plate appearances, not ABs. Dude only had 136 ABs because of the gazillion walks he took. 1 HR every 15.1 ABs is pretty dang good, especially in the FSL at 19. Over 500 ABs (he's never going to get 600 with a walk rate like that!) we're talking 30+ HRs. He also hit 5 doubles and 3 triples. The SLG is impressive, the OBP is other-worldly. Sucks that he picked up a knee injury sliding into a base, but at least it's the meniscus, which should be a much easier and faster rehab. I think he'll come back all the way on that one without much of an issue, but YNK. Can wait to see him at cedar rapids and what he can do.

I think there's an average amount of question marks here, so that seems about right. I'm surprised so many people think Jax is a question mark: he was more than solid last season, is in his prime, and the changes to his pitch mix and move the 'pen seems to suit him very well. I'm not too worried about Duran, Thielbar, and Jax. Alcala has the talent, but needs to show he can recover from injury. Lopez needs to show he's first half guy not post-trade guy. So some questions, but serious upside. Moran is middle relief until he shows better command/control, but he's certainly good enough to hold down that slot right now. that change-up is deadly, his splits are fine and he can pitch multiple innings. Only question is really his ceiling: middle relief if he's always this wild, higher leverage if he locks it down (and out of the league if he loses it entirely, but...that's every reliever, right?) Megill & Pagan have the most questions, but they're also the most fringe parts of the 'pen. Megill has shown signs, but is a little too hittable to be a consistent reliever right now. If he locks it down, he'll be a guy, if not they'll cycle him out for Sands or someone like that. Pagan has the stuff, but no one in Twins fandom has any faith in him for high leverage situations. (for good reason) In middle relief, he's probably ok, but I still wouldn't have kept him. the ceiling is pretty good on this group, the floor isn't bad, and Duran is the only one where it'd be particularly crushing if he flamed out/got hurt.

agree 100%. If Gordon can be passable at 3b, then he becomes an option for if Miranda needs a day off or if there's a particularly nasty RHP coming up, etc. the more positional flexibility Gordon has, the better off he is, and the better off the Twins are in maximizing the utility of their bench. I don't think he'll be a pick to be a regular at 3B. Ever. I think if Miranda goes to the IL for any length of time, they will call up Julien, or Martin, or Lee (or possibly Lewis, depending on where we are in the season) and manage time at 3B primarily with the call-up and/or Farmer. But as a LH bat option off the bench who could slide in at 3B if needed...that would be helpful. I would also test Gordon at 3B in Spring Training. We know he can play LF. He can be the emergency backup in CF. He's not going to be good defensively in the infield, but if he can be not-awful then it opens up options even for pinch-hitting. He's out of options, he's got a decent hit tool that's improved now that he's finally got his health in order (that gastro-intestinal stuff was pretty rough on him) that makes him a useful player, especially if he can pass at as many positions as possible.

Right. It's also important to note that you don't need to throw a change-up at all to be a successful MLB starter. If you have three pitches that are all above average, you don't need to throw a change-up just to throw a change. Fastball-slider/curveball-cutter is a pitch mix that will do just fine in keeping hitters off balance. You're still changing speeds within that, it's just different. I'd rather have someone throwing Raya's mix with command and comfort than lobbing in meatball changeups and hoping the hitter gets fooled.

i think the "ghost runner" rule is a reasonable attempt to try and keep games from going on and on and on...and if they do, to increase the odds of there being some action in them. As a game, the lack of a clock on the competition is a blessing and a curse, because it adds a level of timelessness and means teams are only playing against the other side, not against the clock. but it also means it's the slowest of all the major sports. With pro soccer you're in and out in about 2 hours whereas baseball often runs you 3+. Looking for ways to keep games at 10 innings or less isn't a bad idea, especially since with this rule it still follows the core tenet of baseball that to win the game you have to face down the other team. I thought I was going to hate it and it turns out it didn't really bother me much at all. Position players coming out and throwing 48 mph curveballs and knucklers and so on is fun once and a while, but it's happening way too much. It gets to be a mockery, and frankly it slows the game down there too. I'm not opposed to a pitch clock, because I'm bored with guys meditating on the mound. I'm equally sick of hitters who want to step out and adjust equipment on every pitch. Stop dithering and play! fewer pitching changes would help, but pitchers that just move a game along will help at least as much if not more. Getting through a game in 2:25 is wonderful! More Mark Buehrles, please.

These are outstanding stories.

law was also the first national guy in on Balazovic, so there may be a little bias there. I think he's being a bit unfair to Raya in the assessment of his actual performance: 10.5 k/9 and a WHIP of 1.077 is pretty impressive for a 19 year-old kid who skipped rookie ball and went straight to A-ball. he's penalizing him for arm problems in 2021...that didn't come up in 2022? The size could end up being the bigger issue, but if Raya keeps getting guys out, then just call him Yoda and put him on the mound. It's a reasonable upside pick here. I know Twins staff is very very high on him. I'd like for him to get a taste of AA by season's end, but more importantly I want him to crack 100 innings.

name names, please. Who on this pitching staff (outside of Pagan) is "really bad"? But let's contrast to opening day last season: we're looking at 60% of the rotation being different (No Bundy, no Archer, and Ober likely in the minors), and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who wouldn't say that replacing those three with Mahle, Lopez, and Maeda isn't an improvement. The bullpen has changed as well: no Duffey, no Joe Smith, no Coloumbe, no Cotton, no Romero. the bullpen at the end of last season was more than solid, and that's who they brought back. It's old? Maeda is 34, Gray is 33. The rest of the starters are like 27, and only get younger after that. Thielbar is old, but Lopez is only 30, even Pagan is only 32. the rest are under 30. (Alcala, Duran, Megill, Jax, & Moran are the most likely to stick in MLB right now) Last year's team was right around or just below league average in FIP, ERA+, and ERA. That's not good, but it's also not "really bad". ERA+ is adjusted for park effects; league average was 101, the twins were 98. League average in FIP was 3.97, Twins were 4.03. League ERA was 3.96, Twins were 3.98. Really bad are teams like the Pirates or Royals. the Twins were in the middle third of the league last year, and their pitching should be better...even if they get hit with an injury bug again.

If we're talking about Gibson, he did get 160 hits in a season (167 in 1985) but he also won an MVP and 2 World Series. Didn't hit 30 HRs, but totals were lower during his prime and he still hit over 25 HRs 4 times. Might not have been voted in to the all-star game, but deserved it at least 3 times. A guy isn't a good player because he crosses over an arbitrary round number.

If Correa bounces back on the metrics that will make a significant difference. But I'm a little confused on how Miranda is assessed: the metrics have him as league average at 3B last year, and that's the position he's slated to play full-time this season, why are we assessing him as not being good defensively in 2022? he struggled at 1B, which was essentially a brand-new position for him, but the metric and eye test have him as being average/passable at 3B. I dunno. I look at the team and Miranda looks to be pretty average, Correa superior (even if he had a down year last season defensively by the metrics), Polanco below average, and Kirilloff to be above average. there's no disasters out there. the infield defense (especially if you include the catching) looks solid at worst to me. Polanco gets whacked on pretty hard for his defense around here, I think. Polanco was pretty good defensively in 2021, dipped a little last year (not coincidentally when missing a lot more time for injury), so projecting him to be bad this season at 2B based primarily on last season alone might be a little too negative? Jorge Polanco was arguably better than Jose Altuve just as recently as 2021, maybe we shouldn't be looking to toss him on the scrap heap just yet.

I forget who was in first place in the division for like 3 months of the season last year? Detroit? No, that was the Twins! This wasn't a bad team last year until everyone got hurt. When you're starting your 10th choice in the OF in September, then there's a problem, but it's not that the team as a whole was bad. (I mean in a critical september series we had to run out cave, celestino, and contreras as the starting OF with Billy hamilton, Jermaine palacios, and Sandy Leon as the bench options. but that was because injuries wiped out everyone) The twins have not spent on the bullpen because they have rightly seen that the variance in performance often doesn't get you anything when you drop $3-6M AAV on a guy, and you're often better off finding internal options and sorting through cheaper guys that you can churn if they show they don't have it any longer. That's been the Tampa model: get 3-5 core pieces in your 'pen, and then fill it in more on the fly as you need to, without giving starter money to fungible relievers. Would I have preferred they go sign a guy and replace Pagan? Sure, because I'm worried about sunk cost fallacy and fan PTSD with Pagan and there looked to be guys that were RH options for $3-5M that could have bene trustworthy hands. but overall the bullpen looks pretty good, with some high upside guys in there and few who we're hoping will have a bounce back year. Thielbar has been very good for 3 years; it's a little silly to question him based on him being out of baseball years ago. Jax had a very successful year as a reliever, there's little reason to think he can't be successful this season. Duran was amazing, and relief seems to be the best way to keep his elbow healthy, not a reason to be more concerned. Moran has control issues, but has an awesome changeup and isn't slated to be a high-leverage guy. Alcala was quality before injury. Lopez might be the biggest question mark (outside of PTSD Pagan), but showed the talent to be an all-star. There are questions about the bullpen, but you can probably make the same or equally valid questions about every bullpen in baseball. take the ChiSox: their elite closer is going to miss significant time (if not the whole season) because of cancer treatments, their next best reliever (reynaldo lopez) last season just became a full-time reliever in 2022. Their most used reliever last season has had his WPA decline for 3 seasons in a row, and their 2nd most used reliever from last year has had a negative WPA 4 years in a row. neither of these guys (Graveman & Ruiz) have particularly strong peripherals (WHIP of 1.4? That was Tyler Duffey last season and we cut him). Twins bullpen looks pretty solid.

He's a really interesting player. His best position is "hitter", but you can almost always find room on the roster for someone who has those kind of skills at the plate, assuming he continues to hit like this. The eye at the plate is interesting, because you would normally expect that ability to generate walks to slide back a little as he advanced in level once he started facing pitchers with better control, but that's never happened to him. the one hiccup he had was in the half-season at high A where he wasn't getting hits, and that's probably where some evaluators are seeing some concern: if he doesn't get the hits and punish the ball when he does swing at it, then how much upside does he have when he's facing guys who aren't giving away ABs because they can't find the zone? but with Julien, the slugging has always been there; the .456 SLG in low A probably has more to do with it being the FSL than any flaw in his approach, especially since he was chasing .500 again when he moved up to cedar rapids. He mashed again in AA, and the .490 SLG plays just fine. he nuked the AFL in that short stint. The lack of a great defensive home is a bit of an issue, but his eye at the plate is pretty fantastic, especially at his stage of development. He doesn't have great speed, but does appear to be a quality baserunner; considering how often he gets on base, if he can swipe 10-15 bags a season through good jumps and smart choices at a good clip, then that's real value. (He's a career 77% base-stealer in the minors; if that can stay above 70% than it really does add to his value) I think he's probably going to be a 1B/DH guy who can fill in at a couple of other spots...but you don't really want him there regularly. But a .400 OBP and .450-.500 SLG plays anywhere. (his lack of defensive acumen at 2B/3B is less worrisome with Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis coming through, along with Miranda & Correa already on the roster and oh yeah let's not forget Polanco) he should be a very fun watch in Saint Paul, and I expect to see him him at Target Field sometime this year.

Apparently you don't need guys who have a prime where they average around 4 bWAR per season over 7-8 years. I guess you're another one of those "if they're not an MVP I don't need to know their name" fans. Of course, that's not really how baseball works, so maybe you should find a new sport. If Kirilloff returns from his early injury problems to be as productive as Gibson or Lankford, then it's a huge win for the Twins.

Why does playing for a small market have anything to do with whether a player is worthy of the Hall of Fame? A player should not get extra credit just because they play for the $#^$@* Yankees or Dodgers. A player should not get any demerits because they played for the Twins or Pirates or Royals. That's a ridiculous statement packed in a group of bad takes. Mauer played 10 years as a catcher and 15 seasons in total. Is there a new rule that I'm unaware of mandating that a player has to play more seasons at a particular position to get in to the Hall? Is there a rule that says you have to play on a good team to be a Hall of Fame player? There's a ton of players in the Hall who had no postseason success (remember, there were a lot fewer opportunities in earlier years). If you're going to exclude Mauer on this kind of criteria get ready to throw a lot of guys out of the Hall. The idea of a "small hall" where Willie Mays & Babe Ruth are the standard is long, long gone. It doesn't mean that everyone gets in, but Mauer is arguably one of the top 10 catchers of all-time and if he can't get in because he didn't play in a big market then I really have no idea what is going on here.

Mauer is also hurt badly here because of the some of the local media in MN. People like Dan Barreiro openly detested him (in part because Mauer had no interest in being on his show, I'm sure) and bagged on him frequently. When you have prominent media guys bashing on the star all the time (favorite complaints were about the contract, his RBI totals, and dumbest of all: him taking "too many walks") it hurts the rep with the fans, especially when they're frustrated about the team not having success in the playoffs, losing players like Johan (and not getting the pieces needed to really reload), and the injuries. But Mauer was awesome, and I have nothing but contempt for the haters. He was a terrific catcher and hit like few others. He should have won the Gold Glove at 1B in 2017, he deserved every one of his all-star appearances, deserved the MVP (another reason Mauer catches flak; bitter NYY fans who think the Sainted Jeter got robbed), and was simply an amazing player. 3 batting titles as a catcher? Look at what passes for hitting at catcher these days, does anyone think we'll see that again? Mauer's a no-doubt HoFer to me. Molina gets extra credit for the postseason, but you can't hold that against Mauer. It's not Mauer's fault that Cuzzi completely blew a call or that he played on teams with terrible rotations, or that Liriano's elbow exploded, or that management made staggeringly bad evaluations of guys like Nishioka or Park. I'd take Mauer as my catcher over Molina, who was an all-star caliber player for really only a few years and a good to very good player for most of his prime. Molina had 2 season with more than 5 bWAR. Mauer had 5, even with the injuries.

Didn't know that Gibson had essentially the same procedure! It's sorta nice to know that this isn't unprecedented in MLB. I really hope this fixes the issue for Kirilloff. I'm convinced of his talent and see him as a guy who will hit lasers all over the ballpark. I think his walk rate probably goes up a little; there's no question that he knows the strike zone, and I expect he'll work the count a little more to get the pitch he wants...and lay off the stuff that MLB pitchers will try and get him to chase. But he will be aggressive and go for hits. 15-20 HRs is more than reasonable, and I think he's the kind of player who can hit 40 doubles if he's healthy for a full season. Sure could be fun if he's finally found the solution to that balky wrist. He's such a talented hitter.

If the Twins make the World Series, which they haven't done in over 30 years, wouldn't that be a signal that dealing Arraez was the right move? Good grief.