kab21

I am not convinced that Gimenez won't be back with the Twins. It sucks to hold Garver back in AAA but it is an asset to have good players in AAA for the very reason that you made the thread. I could at least understand the logic of bringing Gimenez back although I am not sure if that would be my plan.

I think Sano could be looked at as a prospect (4 years of control) and net a pretty good pitcher on a weak hitting team. For example, Archer. I don't know how I feel about that trade but for the most part I don't think trading Sano is a practical plan this offseason. There will still be interest but this is a sell low point imo.

Actually with enough sample size BAPIP (Sano is getting close to enough) doesn't regress to a mean (average of all players) but instead establishes a player's expected BAPIP. Joe Mauer has always had a well above average BAPIP and Brian Dozier well below average. There are also many factors that determine a player's BAPIP. Speed is only one factor and not even the most important factor IIRC. How hard you hit the ball (or LD rate) was the biggest factor. Sano is above average (near the top in exit velocity I think) in both of those factors. BAPIP and ISO are completely separate from each other. ISO is heavily dependent on HR while BAPIP completely omits HR's. But again both of these benefit from hitting the ball very hard and Sano does that very well. His ISO is also really good rather than middling. He ranked 26th (if he qualified) out of 144 qualified hitters. But of course, expectations are that it will go higher as he improves as a hitter and enters his prime years.

This is my concern as well. They have a lot of wins against mediocre teams this year since they have faced a favorable schedule so far. The schedule gets harder for them and they will need to show that they can beat the top 6-8 teams in the NBA. Right now I think they can get through the 1st rd but have no chance in the 2nd rd.

He has done this at age 24 while battling a few injuries. The injuries are the concern.

The encouraging thing despite the Wolves dismal 3 pt attempts is that 5 out of 6 of their top players are shooting 3-4 of them per game. And Tyus/Bjelica can chuck a few off the bench also. Even though the number of attempts are about the same as last year there seem to be more competent 3 pt shooters out there.

I would have to be blown away to trade Sano. I have concerns about his health (coming off of surgery) but that also reduces his blow me away trade value (not to mention the new PR mess). I don't think it is unfortunate to relegate him to DH at such a young age. Nor does it really hamstring you (vs trading him away) since he is the best hitter on the team by a decent margin and he can still play 1B occasionally. If someone else is dinged up and needs a day off then they can sit if they can't outhit Sano. If he is hitting 30-40 HR with a .850+ OPS then everything works out.

Ugh... A loss to the Nets... The biggest loss with Teague out is that the Wolves are getting 18 backup minutes at PG from Crawford or Hunt. That is really killing them right now. But at least Wiggins is showing signs of respectability. I hope his struggles are from trying to figure out what his role is since Butler has taken control of the go to guy. We shouldn't be surprised that he struggled to find a role and hopefully he continues to do well. Towns is hitting almost 40% on 3's and taking more than ever. This bodes well I think.

This is an issue that you address after the route to solve starting pitching this offseason. And more likely you kick the can down the road to the next offseason. He might ultimately come at a discount if the market is soft (like last year's trade market) but he is close enough to FA that he will want the upper end of any numbers discussed in this thread. I don't think he exceeds that in FA. The reason to push for an extension now is if he would be considered a MUST sign player that the team can't afford to lose. He isn't. The Twins have many options in the middle infield to reasonably replace him even if there is a falloff in overall ability. One thing that could change this would be trading multiple MI prospects (including non-prospect Polanco) for a pitcher like Archer. If that occurred then MI wouldn't be as strong and they might be able to tie up money in Dozier (Archer is cheap). But even then I probably keep spending on pitching (RP or SP). One thing that I have mentioned before is that I would MUCH rather pay Escobar elite utility player dollars in an extension (3/20-25M) than to give Dozier a 4 or 5 year contract at 15-20M/yr. Buying age 31-35 seasons at a premium makes me NERVOUS. He will get paid and he made the right choice (no option years) but it looks like a bad idea. Cano says hello though...

Prospects are overrated and the Twins can't wait any longer to finish the rebuild. Every year that you hold and wait equals one more year that Buxton, Sano and the young core inches closer to FA. The cost would be high (Lewis plus 1-2 other top 5 prospects) but you get a 10+K/9 and <3 BB/9 (avg 200 IP for 4 seasons) 29 yr old on a great contract (locked up for 4 years for peanuts). Getting Archer and his low contract would allow the Twins to go after another sort of expensive FA or really break the bank and sign Darvish also.

He is the anti-Popovich or the baseball version of Blyleven. It is great to see these wins but this team is going to be gassed in the postseason.

The boardgame bug has completely bitten me and I keep setting up board game nights with friends. Cheap shipping to Taiwan on Amazon is also killing me. Here is Keith Law's list for 2017 (new games only) https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/12/the-10-best-board-games-of-2017.html I haven't heard of many of these but he certainly has an interesting list 1. Azul - sounds like a fantastic game 2. Whistle Stop - another train game 3. Photosynthesis - a game about growing trees and avoiding shadows (slow growth) 4. Wasteland Express - post-apocalyptic delivery game 5. Ex Libris - a set collection game that requires alphabetical sorting of book titles and includes banned books - looks very interesting but expensive 6. Skyward 7. Yamatai - includes the vermilion Japanese torii's as part of the game - love it 8. La Flamme Rouge - a bicycle race game - sold 9. Mole Rats in Space - from the creator of Pandemic - simplified coop for children 10. Barenpark

No, it makes sense to take a flyer like this if it doesn't affect your bigger plans and you could really use one more rotation option on your competitive team. Posting one example of this type of move not working out is meaningless.

That is a pretty weak link. Every player on the 25 man is part of roster management. If the FO isn't willing to move on from players for a variety of reasons then they have a roster management problem.

This isn't an argument and you are not the only one that is making the case that a winning team must (multiple dominate bullpen arms are the best translation of W-L outcomes). Numerous people are claiming that an elite bullpen is necessary but nobody is supporting this argument with any real analysis. Perhaps some anecdotal evidence on both sides but that doesn't say much. The thing is that most very good to great teams have a lot of good to great players all over the roster. Odds are that some of the teams will have a few in the bullpen also. I stand by my plan to spend money/prospects for the rotation and spend wisely (cheap if necessary) in the bullpen.

This is a singular example. The more comprehensive lists (listed in this thread) show the risk in signing RP's to multiyear contracts. You can't just use one example of where it would have been better to sign a longer contract to justify signing an unrelated RP to a longer contract. Do you have a link to any analysis that shows a greater correlation of an elite bullpen to winning vs starting pitching/defense/hitting/etc?

My alternative is to spend money and prospects for rotation upgrades that pitch 180+ innings every year and find competent to good RP's (Rodney included) to give the bullpen depth. Elite bullpen is nice but unnecessary. A deep bullpen however is VERY necessary. I answered your question. You are up.

Step 1 is to assemble a competent bullpen that can get it done from the 7th (or the 6th) through the 9th. It doesn't do the team any good to get one dominant RP if they lose the lead in the 7th inning and don't use him. And do you have an analysis that even backs this up? There have certainly been great teams that had great bullpens but I haven't seen an analysis that said it was the best translation of W-L outcomes or the more realistic way to be competitive.

A lot of the offseason talk was Gordon plus Gonsalves/Romero. I think we are more likely in Lewis plus Gordon territory now. I don't really see how Kepler enters the equation for the Pirates. I think they will go for prospects (and top ones) if they start trading.

And your alternative is? Spending big on 30+ yr old RP's? Trading really good prospects to the Reds for Raisel Iglesias? I think everyone would like to have an elite bullpen but buying it with prospects or money is not a good solution.

I really don't understand these snide remarks about Ryan 2.0 because the FO (wisely) goes after a low cost closer instead of giving a 3+ year contract to 30 something yr old RP. There were things to criticize from the Ryan era but not spending big money isn't one of them. And I still can't connect the dots with how this means that the Twins will be bringing in retreads for the rotation instead of adding a good pitcher. Nearly everyone understands that the FO is working with a limited budget (even if we want higher spending) and they can't spend big in multiple areas this offseason. Saving money on volatile RP so they can add a better starter is a wise move. But it remains to be seen who that starter(s) will be. I will wait with my pitchforks until then and am fine (for now) with the various small moves that they have made. I just can't get bent out of shape for a small one year contract to an effective RP or Rule V losses/additions.

The disappointing thing for me is that his shooting %'s are down across the board and getting to the point where he is a bad player (31% 3 pt - 64% FT). I would expect his offensive usage (and scoring) to go down with Butler (and Teague) on the team but he needs to find a way to be more efficient when he does have the ball.

Everything you said here has to do with roster management. Keeping him on the 25 man roster and not returning him because he isn't what they thought he might be is exactly what I am talking about as a roster management problem.

People are free to complain about Rodney as an addition to the bullpen. He isn't great but he is a solid pitcher and the price paid reflects that. But the more important item missing from many posts is that the closer role is totally overrated. It doesn't matter if Rodney is the 7th inning guy or the closer, if he is good enough for one of those roles then he is good enough for a different one. See Kintzler and Belisle as last year's closers. I also wouldn't have had any problems with Kintzler returning on his contract either. Rodney has some troubling numbers but so does Kintzler. So far his 5.5 K/9 has gotten him by (125 IP) but that is scary out of the bullpen. I can understand passing on him and picking someone with a longer track record on a shorter commitment.

Your complaint is about roster management and has nothing to do with Rule V other than your 1 example. The Twins should be better at cutting players loose regardless if they are Rule V picks or not.