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70charger

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Everything posted by 70charger

  1. Stats for reference: MLB batting stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml Rosario stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosared01-bat.shtml
  2. Wow. No. My entire point is to quit focusing on the outliers. Don't cherry pick samples either way. Don't pretend like baseball teams' front offices do, either. Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but Rosario's career OPS is .784. League average for the last 80 years has never been that high. Similarly, Rosario's 2018 OPS is .803. League average for the last 10 years has been around .720. Also, it so happens that Rosario has, beginning in 2017, dramatically improved his discipline. He went from a strikeout to walk ratio in the 7 range in 2016 down to 3 in 2017. He regressed a bit this year, to 3.5, and I don't personally see that as any reason to panic. His walk rate this year is above his career average, and at 26 years old, I don't know why anyone would assume it has peaked. Finally, you think you'll find a team that will trade for him on the basis of his .950 first-half production, and not on his career numbers and trends? That's ridiculous, and I don't think it lines up with your claim to know how baseball front offices make their decisions.
  3. So, by this logic we should be getting rid of guys like Rosario and going out to find more guys like ...Grossman? Yeah, I’m going with cherry picked sample.
  4. Super cool. I'm a big Johnny Bench fan (the Reds are, sadly, my NL team). I think Mauer belongs in that same catching pantheon.
  5. Is it possible you're having difficulty differentiating appreciation and rationalization?
  6. You may be right, but it's also logically possible that you're reversing cause and effect: i.e., it is possible that these amazing pitchers are all in the big leagues early because they're naturally amazing pitchers. Mozart could write symphonies as a kid. Does that mean that all kids should be pressed to write symphonies? I'd love to see a side-by-side of the bell curve's tails. I don't have the bandwidth to do it, but wouldn't it be interesting to see a comparison of the top-level pitchers who are late bloomers versus the top-level pitchers who are prodigies?
  7. Stealing this response, word-for-word, from Tom Froemming's response in the pitcher of the year thread: So, the GCL suppresses hitting. Makes some sense given where they play. An average OPS of .692 is well below the major league OPS average, so I guess it makes sense that even the good hitters would seem somewhat low.
  8. This. We are all fools of randomness right now. We overperformed last year, and that got us way too excited. Then we underperformed this year, and based on risen expectations, we got way too angsty. I have to believe that roughly 75% of this conversation wouldn't exist if we were just .500 team both years, like we probably should have been. So much drama...
  9. I was thinking that too. Sounds like something Michael Lewis would make fun of in Moneyball. How's his girlfriend look? That's what I want to know.
  10. Yep, satire alert. Seth, I know you have a lot to read and probably skim, so no worries. Thanks for all you do.
  11. This is such a Twins thing. Is there any other team in the league that has such a ridiculous development policy? Carlos Correa had three birthdays in one season, if I recall correctly, and yet here are the Twins insisting that their players age one year at a time. Ridiculous.
  12. I can think of a way to get rid of Logan Morrison today... But seriously, if anyone gives the Twins anything at all for him it’ll be a few thousand bucks or some 25 year old org filler in low A. It’s not worth the at bats to showcase a guy who’s had the kind of season Morrison has had. Best case scenario the return goes from nothing to slightly more nothing. If I ran the show, I’d DFA him yesterday and start seeing what we have in Austin.
  13. Looks like the second GCL game score is off in the writeup. I was curious to see whether they'd move Chase De Jong to relief, but it looks like he's scheduled to start. I don't suppose we've heard anything about their plans for him yet?
  14. I don't think it angers anyone. Until you're mathematically eliminated, you're not mathematically eliminated; I just think some have an easier time accepting that the odds were ridiculously against this team. If the Twins were running a marathon race, they'd be crossing the starting line while the Kenyans were passing mile 10. Does it meet the technical definition of "race"? Yes. Is it a race? Come on, now.
  15. Doubt we need more marginal AAA relievers in their mid-20s. I'd have held out for the younger guy with upside too. Though you could be right: this could be Dozier's [lack of] value.
  16. Don't think there's any realistic chance of this. Rooker is this front office's draft pick (for whatever that's worth), and they've showed absolutely no hesitation in pushing him up the chain. He's at AA a year and a half into his pro career. Austin looks more like a Vargas type, because, well, Vargas ain't coming back. The pitcher looks like the more interesting piece to me. I'm scouting stat lines, but although the strikeout rates are lower than you'd want them to be, the walk rate is ridiculous. Maybe there's something there.
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