Matthew Lenz

The Twins were quiet today but Kris Bryant made headlines while the Astros were busy for the second consecutive day signing a former Twin.Former Minnesota Twins catcher, Jason Castro, back in Houston This gives the Astros a possible platoon option with Martin Maldando as both hitters have traditional splits against lefty and righty pitchers. Castro is coming off of his worst offensive season since 2013 with .179/.233/.375 splits in 92 at-bats over 27 games played. Per Baseball Prospectus Catching Leaders, Castro is going to be a huge improvement defensively over any of their catching options, Maldanado included, from the 2020 season. Kris Bryant: “... is this even fun anymore?” On an episode of Barstool Sports podcast “Red Line Radio” that was released today, Bryant rhetorically questioned if he was having fun playing baseball anymore. The former MVP is coming off of his worst season as a pro and enters the final year of his contract amid another offseason of trade rumors. The Cubs seem to be in sell mode after unloading Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres and the Twins would be an ideal fit for the three-time all star who could theoretically play any of the four corner infield or outfield spots. Blue Jays designate Anthony Castro Castro signed as an international free agent in 2012 with the Detroit Tigers, has just one Major League inning under his belt, and is only 25-years-old. The righty has had moderate success in the Minors as a high strikeout rate but has issues with his control as that’s coupled with a very high walk rate. In his “Top 39 Prospects: Blue Jays” analysis, Eric Longenhagen scouting report reads “his heater has natural cut; his slider lacks depth”. It’s that last part that might pique my interest for the Twins. We have a franchise that loves pitcher development and sliders ... doesn’t Castro fit the bill? And at only 25-years-old with room on the roster, he could make for an interesting project. Reds are interested in Andrelton Simmons The free agent shortstop hasn’t been tied to the Twins but the Twins have been tied to needing a shortstop or utility infielder. Simmons is arguably the best shortstop available on the market and, if the Twins were to be interested, it appears they would have added competition in the Reds. If you are overly concerned with Polanco’s defense, then Simmons is right up your alley as one of baseball’s best defensive shortstops. Tim Anderson to star on the cover of RBI 21 MLB announced that Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson would be the cover player for RBI 2021. This is now the seventh year this game has been released since its reboot in 2015, and Anderson is the second American League Central shortstop to be featured after Francisco Lindor donned the cover in 2018. Anderson has inarguably been charismatic and productive in his last three Major League seasons, but how do you snub Fernando Tatis Jr or one of the players from baseball's most trending team? Just another gaff for a marketing department that struggles in advertising the games most polarizing stars. Calm down, @ChiSoxFanMike, this is less of a shot at Anderson and more of a recognition of the coast-to-coash star that Tatis Jr has become. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Liam Hendriks is off the board and it appears Brad Hand may sign shortly, but history tells us avoiding the top of the bullpen market will likely be a wise decision by the Twins.At around the same time that Twins fans heard the Hendriks news, MLB Network was releasing their #Top10RightNow relievers which featured him at the top of the list: Naturally, many were concerned with the White Sox bolstering their already solid bullpen and many more were wondering if the Twins would sign Brad Hand, who recently said he would love to play for his hometown team. When I saw this list, the question I posed was what did this look like two years ago ... suggesting that it probably looked very different from the current list. The only names on both lists are Aroldis Chapman and Josh Hader. Want to know what last year's list looked like? See for yourself. Once again, Chapman and Hader are the only two names that are on even two of the three lists, and we now have two decades worth of data in this new era of power pitching bullpens that shows this type of fluctuation in the games top relievers is the norm rather than the exception. Quite literally when reviewing league wide relief pitcher data on Fangraphs you can see that what we now know as the modern day bullpen started forming right around 2000. The last 21 seasons are all in the top 21 of relief innings pitched and 18 of the 21 are in the top 21 of K/9, while the other three are still in the top 26. (Sidenote: the 1875 season is 21st on the list at 7.19 K/9 over just 41.1 innings pitched...bizarre outlier) What has the lifespan of an “elite reliever” looked like over the last 20 years? Although not the end-all and be-all indicator, I used fWAR as my measure while limiting the search to pitchers who had a season where they pitched at least 50 innings so my research wasn’t influenced by guys who didn’t put in a full season of work. This obviously eliminated 2020 from the data set which I think is actually pretty fair given the unique set of circumstances compared to every other season. I then found the standardized score of each player's fWAR and found that the data fit a bell-shaped distribution and was close to being “normal”. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-01-12 at 10.55.41 PM.png Using the standard normal table, I defined an elite reliever as someone who finished in the top three-percent of the data set which equated to 1.88 standard deviations above the mean. There are 147 individual seasons and 78 unique pitchers who accomplished this feat, which is evidence in itself that a reliever lifespan as “elite” doesn’t last more than a season or two in a vast majority of cases. Furthermore, it was infrequent that a pitcher even appeared on the list as many as four times. Mariano Rivera (7) -- who we knew would be an outlier on this list -- Kenley Jansen (4), Jonathan Papelbon (4), Joe Nathan (4), Craig Kimbrel (4) and Aroldis Chapman (4) are the only pitchers who appear on the list more than three times, and they account for about 18.4% of the total list. A handful of pitchers accomplished the feat three times of which the most notable might be Eric Gagne who accumulated 83.6% of his career fWAR in those three seasons. He has since admitted to steroid use during his run which could explain his massive three-year peak in an otherwise uninspiring career, but is nonetheless another case of an elite reliever falling off after a few short years. So let's bring this back to the two elite free agent relievers entering the 2021offseason that Twins fans were clamoring for. Per fWAR, Liam Hendriks 2019 season was the second best relief season of the century behind the aforementioned Gagne’s 2003 which we now know was partially thanks to steroids, and he was the best pitcher in 2020 accruing the same fWAR (1.4) as Brewers reliever Devin Williams. If the data above tells us anything it’s that Hendriks, who will be 32 by season's start, will likely be overpaid and no longer elite for at least half of his contract with the White Sox. Both parties definitely benefit from the shortened 2020 season as he saved 50-60 innings on his arm, but on top of history being against him he is also on the older end of when the list of relievers above peaked in their careers. And remember, a vast majority of the pitchers in the data set only appeared once or twice. The former Twin might be a “Twin Killer” in 2021, possibly 2022, but 2023 and 2024 (there is a team option) is a crapshoot that the White Sox went all-in on. On the other hand, heh, Minnesota native Brad Hand hasn’t truly had an elite season in his career. His best season in 2017, where he accrued 1.7 fWAR, would rank as the 259th best season of the century although he had a solid year last year where he finished as the fifth-best reliever in baseball. In 2020, he was on pace for what would likely have been an “elite” season, but if you’ve gathered anything from this article so far it’s that relievers are nearly impossible to predict. Hand is about a year younger than Hendriks and doesn’t have the same umph behind his fastball that some of the names listed above have, which are both factors that could make his lifespan as a top, if not elite, reliever a little longer. The real issues with these two, and other “elite” relievers, isn’t necessarily the unpredictable production that their teams will get out of them, but it’s their cost that has me saying “no, thanks”. Even if Liam Hendriks isn’t an elite closer in a couple years, he’ll likely be serviceable as a 7th/8th inning type, but the problem lies in paying a 7th/8th inning type $15.4MM per year. MLB Trade Rumors has Hand signing for two-years, $14MM which actually wouldn’t be a bad deal, a short term deal paying $7MM AAV for a top end reliever is practically a steal. That said, they also had Hendriks signing for three-years, $30MM and he ended up getting an extra year, although it’s a team option, plus an extra $5.4MM AAV and these two factors will surely drive up Hand’s cost. I’d be willing to give Hand two-years, maybe three if it’s a team option, but no more than $9MM based on the volatility at his position. Let me end with a mea culpa, especially directed towards fellow Twins Daily-er Nick Nelson. You see, I was a BIG Craig Kimbrel bobo, as a certain Twins Cities sports radio station might say, and went back and forth with Nick quite a bit on the topic. Even with damning evidence that Kimbrel was toast, I wanted the Twins to DO SOMETHING ... ANYTHING ... but specifically throw money at Kimbrel. I’m sorry, Nick. The data presented in this article, and Kimbrel’s production since 2019, has shown me the light. We shouldn’t be mad about “losing out” on [insert top reliever here]. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

T’was the night before christmas, when all through stands Not a creature was stirring, not even the fans. The Target Field bars and concessions were bare, With hopes in twenty-one, we all could be there.Twins Territory nestled in and pulled up Twins Daily, While making their list to replace Homer Bailey. And fans in the comments said give Bauer a cap, While wondering if Odo would get another lap. When up in the office, there arose different clatters, They also had needs for some new Bomba batters. Away to free agency Rosie flew like a flash, Now open the checkbook to give Nelly some cash. No need to fly like new-fallen snow, Now prospects can drive across I-ninety fo’. When, what to fans wandering minds became clear, They had a new affiliate for which they could cheer. Jeffers and Rooker got to the majors so quick, We knew in a moment they would definitely stick. Just as rapid as the season, players come and they go, But none were more surprising than Fernando Romero. Thank you Rosie and Marwin! Thank you Romo and Adrianza! Bring on Kirilloff or Larnach, Or even Marcell Ozuna. However you choose to take in the call, Cheer away, cheer away, cheer away all! Here's the 2019 version for those of you interested. Happy Holiday's everyone! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

With the Twins and Nelson Cruz at a stalemate, Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently reported that the Twins have “checked in on" Kyle Schwarber, Adam Duvall and Michael Brantley. Yet, one of the best free agents available could be an even better fit than the previous three listed.On Wednesday, Hayes shared an update on the Cruz situation stating that talks “may not speed up any time soon” as Cruz is looking for a two-year deal on top of a raise from the last two years where he averaged $13 million each year. Understandably, the Twins are hesitant to give the aging slugger a multi-year deal as he’s also coming off three consecutive seasons dealing with various ailments. It was his ankle in 2018, his wrist in 2019, his knee in 2020, and as he is entering his 16th full major league season those should be some red flags for the Twins. As previously noted, there are younger options that the Twins can consider for the role of DH. Without a doubt Schwarber and Duvall would each be a downgrade at the position, and they are both coming off the worst seasons of their respective careers. On the other hand, Brantley is arguably a more valuable piece than Cruz as he is younger and more versatile with the ability to play a solid left field. MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) has Brantley as the 13th-best free agent this offseason and predicts him signing a two-year, $28MM deal with the Atlanta Braves, but he is undoubtedly a really nice fit for the Twins now that Eddie Rosario is gone. That said, if the Twins are okay settling with more of a DH-only, they should kick the tires on a player that is four years younger than Brantley. Following Hayes’ article on Wednesday, Eno Sarris posted another article “Find the Best Fits for the Top Ten MLB Free Agents”. In that article he points that 31-year-old LF/DH Marcell Ozuna would be a good fit for the Twins but ultimately predicts him signing with the Chicago White Sox on a four-year, $80MM contract. At MLBTR, they have him as the fourth best free agent and signing with the Nationals for four years, $72MM. It’s worth noting that before Sarris, Twins Daily own Cody Christie had Ozuna part of his 2021 Blueprint and Nash Walker mentioned it on his podcast not long before that. And for good reason. Between Ozuna, Brantley, and Cruz, Ozuna is coming off the best season slashing .338/.431/.636 while hitting 18 home runs and posting a WRC+ of 179. Download attachment: Untitled document.jpg Ozuna’s biggest knock, specifically when compared to Brantley, will be his strikeout and rates although his numbers do fall pretty closely to those of Cruz. Defensively, Brantley is definitely the superior player as Ozuna was almost exclusively used as a DH in Atlanta and Brantley became Houston’s primary DH partially due to Yordan Alvarez’s injury. That said, overall Ozuna is the better hitter, the younger player, and doesn’t have the spotty injury history that Brantley has although he has remained healthy for each of the last three seasons. As Sarris and MLBTR predict, Ozuna will likely be looking for a multi-year deal longer than the two-year deal that Cruz wants and Brantley is predicted for. Looking long term, this could be something the Twins aren’t interested in as Josh Donaldson may need to slide into that role to remain healthy and productive as he gets older. If the Twins don’t want a drop in productivity then Duvall and Schwarber aren’t serious options, but Brantley, Cruz, and Ozuna are all kind of a toss up. They could go with the best player in Ozuna, the best fit and value in Brantley, or stick with the veteran in Cruz who has provided invaluable leadership in his two years as a Twin. Of the names mentioned in this article, who do you want the Twins to go after? Is there a name not listed here you’d consider? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Not a surprise to many, it became unofficially official this week that Twins fans had seen the last of Eddie Rosario donning a TC Hat.. As a thank you to Eddie, who spent more than a third of his life with this franchise, let's look back at some of his biggest moments.Watching Eddie Rosario play was always exciting, as Seth Stohs would say, although not always in a good way. It seemed that for every time he made fans throw their hands up in excitement, he would also make them throw their hands up in disbelief as . Whether it was base running errors, errant throws, or swinging at anything from his toes to the bill of helmet, you never knew what to expect while watching him play baseball. BUT, on the flip side, he also made a habit of , and he arguably was one of the best “bad ball” hitters in the league over the last six seasons. His passion and energy were contagious to both teammates and fans alike, and he provided the franchise with lasting memories that will likely be added to his Twins Hall of Fame Highlight Reel in 20 years. [Author’s Note: Yes, if Michael Cuddyer is a Twins Hall of Famer, then so is Eddie] It’s the aforementioned moments that has Twins fans divided and has left many with mixed emotions. Whether you’re ready to move on or wish the Twins had ponied up, there’s no arguing that Eddie provided some exciting moments over his six major league seasons and here are some of the best: May 6th, 2015 v. Oakland Athletics Eddie Rosario starts his career with a bang by hitting a 399 foot homer to the left field bleachers in his first big league at-bat. September 13th, 2017 v. San Diego Padres The Twins are surprisingly two games up on the Angels for the 2nd Wild Card spot and need every win they can get. Cue Eddie with the Walk Off blast. October 3rd, 2017 @ New York Yankees Like his first regular season at-bat, Rosario starts his postseason career off with a bang giving the Twins a 3-0 lead with a two-run shot in the first inning of a one-game playoff. from our writers— Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I feel like your comment has nothing to with the topic of this article. Not at all suggesting a rebuild, replacing Sano, Buxton, et al I guarantee all of these guys will be employed in 2021. I’m not suggesting the Twins sign any of these guys in lieu of going after a bigger dish, I say as much in the article, but the fact is that every time has these guys in the active roster.

Thanks!

I prefer to give the prospects a shot too, but even in that case we need some backup in case they need some more seasoning.

Black Friday’s here and there are some deals the Twins shouldn’t miss! You won’t need to stand outside at 3 a.m. waiting for the doors to open, rather a phone call to the three players covered in this article during business hours will probably go over better than knocking on their door at 5 a.m.When making your Black Friday shopping list, you first need to think about what you need. The Twins have six days to decide whether they want to tender offers to Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Tyler Duffey, Mitch Garver, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario, and Matt Wisler. It’s widely believed that all of those players will be tendered an offer with the lone exception being Eddie Rosario. They could also lose Nelson Cruz, Alex Avila, Marwin Gonzalez, Ehire Adrianza, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey, Jake Odorizzi, Sergio Romo, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, and Zack Littell to free agency. That’s a long list of players to fill voids for but I’ve summarized a list of the Twins needs based off the players they’re losing: Left fielderDesignated HitterTwo starting pitchersMultiple relieversUtility Infielder/OutfielderNow some of these needs will need to be filled by impact players who you aren’t going to find on the cheap. For example, the Twins will hopefully be legitimate suitors for Trevor Bauer to fill one of the starting pitcher voids and, whether or not they are able to attract him, they could also bring back Odorizzi on a deal. Outside of that, they could fill some of the gaps with players who could be had on the cheap. Here’s my list of Major League Baseball’s Black Friday Deals that could help the Twins: Brad Miller - Utility Infielder Defense has never been his strong suit which would make him a downgrade over Adrianza and Gonzalez, but he’s a considerable upgrade offensively and is able to play anywhere in the infield. FanGraphs Free Agent Tracker projects him to get a one-year deal worth two million, which would be a steal compared to the value he could provide ... especially if Josh Donaldson were to miss time in 2021. Kevin Pillar - Utility Outfielder Pillar contributes on both sides of the ball and would be an upgrade over Jake Cave who is entering his final year of team control before entering the arbitration phase of his career. Cave has been solid defensively in his career but has been streaky at the plate. I’m not clamoring for Pillar to replace Rosario but he would provide some consistency and flexibility if a full-time player needed a break or got hurt. Michael Wacha - Right-Handed Starting Pitcher Wacha was a first-round draft pick, who accelerated through the minors, and had a strong five-year start to his career including NLCS MVP in 2013 and All-Star appearance in 2015. In the last three seasons, he’s dealt with injuries that have limited his innings and effectiveness. The Atlanta Braves and Drew Smyly have set an expensive starting pitcher market which might make big name guys like Corey Kluber and Chris Archer too expensive for their inherited risk. FanGraphs has Wacha signing for one-year at three million dollars ... a no-risk, no-brainer deal in my eyes. Brett Anderson - Left-Handed Starting Pitcher Doesn’t have the upside of Wacha but also doesn’t come with the recent injury history, and is thought to be similarly priced. As a cheap option, he might be more attractive to the Twins than Wacha for the sole reason that he is a lefty in a rotation that is dominated by righties and is less of a question mark. I would prefer one of these two over anyone else currently on the Twins 40-man roster. Justin Wilson and/or Jake McGee - Left-Handed Relief Pitchers Relievers are wild cards. They’re nearly impossible to project and, in my opinion, not worth spending on. I like Trevor May but wouldn’t mind letting him walk assuming that he is going to look for a multi-year deal after a ‘bleh’ season. Wilson and McGee are two guys who have shown flashes, are coming off solid seasons, and could shore up the middle of the bullpen. The last cheap option that could help fill various voids is by relying on prospects. The Twins have a few prospects in Brent Rooker, Alex Kiriloff, and Trevor Larnach who could help fill the positions that might be left open by the departure of Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz. Even if this is the case, which I hope it is, I still think the Twins need to bring in a utility veteran or two who can fill-in if they rookies show they still need some fine tuning. Again, I do hope that the Twins spend on starting pitching. Kenta Maeda, Michael Pineda, and Jose Berrios make a solid 1-3 but you can never have too much pitching, especially of the power variety. An arm, like Bauer, to slide in front of those three would create one of the best rotations in baseball no matter who the fifth arm is. If the Twins do spend big on a starter, left fielder, or designated hitter then this list serves as some cheaper fill-ins. What do you think of these guys as filling important roles for the Twins? Is there an under-the-radar player that makes your list that didn’t make mine? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

After a record setting 2019, the Twins were +2500 to win the 2020 World Series, just a 3.8% chance. Exactly a year later, after an underwhelming 2020, they’re at +1400 (6.6% chance) to win in 2021. What can history tell us about the movement of these odds as players move around the league? Does it matter who the Twins sign from a betting perspective?After a record setting 2019, the Twins were +2500 to win the 2020 World Series, just a 3.8% chance. Exactly a year later, after an underwhelming 2020, they’re at +1400 (6.6% chance) to win in 2021. What can history tell us about the movement of these odds as players move around the league? Does it matter who the Twins sign from a betting perspective? To attempt to answer that question I will look at the free agents that MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) predicts could end up in a Twins uniform and use historical data from the last three seasons to help determine that players impact on their odds to win. As I did previously, I will provide you with the odds to win as well as the percentages using the formula odds/(odds +100). Does a big splash correlate to a big move in the odds? How do important role players and relievers, like Marwin Gonzalez or Trevor May, influence the oddsmakers despite not playing everyday? It’s time to find out. Trevor Bauer MLBTR has Bauer ending up with the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but they do list the Twins as a potential suitor and give various reasons why he might not fit on some other big name teams (i.e. Yankees). To look at his possible impact on the oddsmakers, let's look no further than the 2019-2020 offseason when the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole who was also coming off a Cy Young Award season. Cole signed with the Evil Empire on December 11th which improved the Yankees odds to +400 (20% chance) on signing day from +600 (14% chance) just six days earlier. I’d imagine that Bauer would have an even bigger impact on the Twins current odds of +1400 (6.6%) as +600 (14.2%) was already plenty good. It’s also possible that failing to sign him will decrease the Twins odds. When Cole signed with the Yankees, the fact that the Houston Astros failed to re-sign him moved their odds from +500 (16.6%) to +550 (14.8%). Nelson Cruz The Twins slugger is projected to stay with the team by MLBTR, although that largely depends on whether or not the National League continues to use a designated hitter. According to a tweet from the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal, this is likely not to happen...for now. Nelson Cruz is nearly in a class of his own being one of the league’s premier players at his position where he only has up to 14 other full-time competitors at any given time. Over the last few seasons, he and J.D. Martinez are really the most notable free agent signings, so why not look at his impact on the Twins 2019 World Series odds. Unfortunately, Sports Betting Dime’s first published odds of the 2019 World Series are after the Twins signed Cruz on January 2nd, but being that he was already part of the team in 2020, I don’t see a potential re-signing impacting the odds too much. Trevor May and Kirby Yates MLBTR has May and Yates as the fourth and sixth best relievers, respectively. Both enter the market coming off a down or injured year. It would be my opinion that middle relievers aren’t going to have a huge impact on World Series odds due to their volatility and, although being used in high leverage situations, they are the least utilized player on the roster from an innings perspective. To validate this let's look at arguably the biggest relief pitcher signing of the last three offseasons: Wade Davis to the Rockies on December 29th, 2017. On November 24th, SBD had the Rockies at +4000 odds (2.4%) to win the 2018 World Series while by January 10th they were +3300 (2.9%) which is a bigger jump than I would have thought, but it’s also important to note they signed two other relievers in Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee in that timeframe. Because of their positions and especially with May already being on the team in previous seasons, I don’t see either of these signings moving the odds. Corey Kluber Given his age, injury history, and peak the only player I can really think that compares here would be Johan Santana. Even if he ends up with the Twins like MLBTR predicts, I don’t see a figurative lottery ticket moving the odds one way or another. Jurickson Profar The Twins are in need of a utility player as Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are both set to be free agents this offseason. Like relief pitchers and figurative lottery tickets, I don’t see a utility player moving the needle a ton. But for the sake of the article, let’s look at how Marwin Gonzalez (admittedly a much better player than Profar) impacted the Twins 2019 World Series odds when he signed on February 25th, 2019. Around the same time the Twins were signing super-utility Gonzalez, the Phillies and Padres landed a couple of super free agents themselves - Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That might explain why the Twins odds February 20th (+5000 or 2%) were actually better than on March 27th (+5867 or 1.7%). It’d be impossible to draw any concrete conclusions about the above data, but here’s what we can summarize and possibly already knew. A big splash signing (i.e. Bauer) will move somebody’s odds significantly if the oddsmakers weren’t already anticipating the big free agent to land in a certain spot. On the other hand, as seen when the Twins signed Marwin, a big splash signing will also hurt the odds of teams who lost out on the free agent. Only owning the 10th best odds in baseball, it’s clear the Twins will need to make a move to improve those odds. Bauer is obviously a huge piece to this puzzle, but I think the key to this season, more than making a big splash in free agency, is how they handle their top prospects. Do they trade one or two for that immediate difference maker or do they commit to giving them playing time with the assumption there will be a learning curve early on? What do you think the Twins should do this offseason? Make a splash whether it be free agency or a trade, or rely on the likes of Rooker, Kiriloff, etc. to contribute in 2021? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

After a record setting 2019, the Twins were +2500 to win the 2020 World Series, just a 3.8% chance. Exactly a year later, after an underwhelming 2020, they’re at +1400 (6.6% chance) to win in 2021. What can history tell us about the movement of these odds as players move around the league? Does it matter who the Twins sign from a betting perspective?After a record setting 2019, the Twins were +2500 to win the 2020 World Series, just a 3.8% chance. Exactly a year later, after an underwhelming 2020, they’re at +1400 (6.6% chance) to win in 2021. What can history tell us about the movement of these odds as players move around the league? Does it matter who the Twins sign from a betting perspective? To attempt to answer that question I will look at the free agents that MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) predicts could end up in a Twins uniform and use historical data from the last three seasons to help determine that players impact on their odds to win. As I did previously, I will provide you with the odds to win as well as the percentages using the formula odds/(odds +100). Does a big splash correlate to a big move in the odds? How do important role players and relievers, like Marwin Gonzalez or Trevor May, influence the oddsmakers despite not playing everyday? It’s time to find out. Trevor Bauer MLBTR has Bauer ending up with the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but they do list the Twins as a potential suitor and give various reasons why he might not fit on some other big name teams (i.e. Yankees). To look at his possible impact on the oddsmakers, let's look no further than the 2019-2020 offseason when the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole who was also coming off a Cy Young Award season. Cole signed with the Evil Empire on December 11th which improved the Yankees odds to +400 (20% chance) on signing day from +600 (14% chance) just six days earlier. I’d imagine that Bauer would have an even bigger impact on the Twins current odds of +1400 (6.6%) as +600 (14.2%) was already plenty good. It’s also possible that failing to sign him will decrease the Twins odds. When Cole signed with the Yankees, the fact that the Houston Astros failed to re-sign him moved their odds from +500 (16.6%) to +550 (14.8%). Nelson Cruz The Twins slugger is projected to stay with the team by MLBTR, although that largely depends on whether or not the National League continues to use a designated hitter. According to a tweet from the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal, this is likely not to happen...for now. Nelson Cruz is nearly in a class of his own being one of the league’s premier players at his position where he only has up to 14 other full-time competitors at any given time. Over the last few seasons, he and J.D. Martinez are really the most notable free agent signings, so why not look at his impact on the Twins 2019 World Series odds. Unfortunately, Sports Betting Dime’s first published odds of the 2019 World Series are after the Twins signed Cruz on January 2nd, but being that he was already part of the team in 2020, I don’t see a potential re-signing impacting the odds too much. Trevor May and Kirby Yates MLBTR has May and Yates as the fourth and sixth best relievers, respectively. Both enter the market coming off a down or injured year. It would be my opinion that middle relievers aren’t going to have a huge impact on World Series odds due to their volatility and, although being used in high leverage situations, they are the least utilized player on the roster from an innings perspective. To validate this let's look at arguably the biggest relief pitcher signing of the last three offseasons: Wade Davis to the Rockies on December 29th, 2017. On November 24th, SBD had the Rockies at +4000 odds (2.4%) to win the 2018 World Series while by January 10th they were +3300 (2.9%) which is a bigger jump than I would have thought, but it’s also important to note they signed two other relievers in Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee in that timeframe. Because of their positions and especially with May already being on the team in previous seasons, I don’t see either of these signings moving the odds. Corey Kluber Given his age, injury history, and peak the only player I can really think that compares here would be Johan Santana. Even if he ends up with the Twins like MLBTR predicts, I don’t see a figurative lottery ticket moving the odds one way or another. Jurickson Profar The Twins are in need of a utility player as Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are both set to be free agents this offseason. Like relief pitchers and figurative lottery tickets, I don’t see a utility player moving the needle a ton. But for the sake of the article, let’s look at how Marwin Gonzalez (admittedly a much better player than Profar) impacted the Twins 2019 World Series odds when he signed on February 25th, 2019. Around the same time the Twins were signing super-utility Gonzalez, the Phillies and Padres landed a couple of super free agents themselves - Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That might explain why the Twins odds February 20th (+5000 or 2%) were actually better than on March 27th (+5867 or 1.7%). It’d be impossible to draw any concrete conclusions about the above data, but here’s what we can summarize and possibly already knew. A big splash signing (i.e. Bauer) will move somebody’s odds significantly if the oddsmakers weren’t already anticipating the big free agent to land in a certain spot. On the other hand, as seen when the Twins signed Marwin, a big splash signing will also hurt the odds of teams who lost out on the free agent. Only owning the 10th best odds in baseball, it’s clear the Twins will need to make a move to improve those odds. Bauer is obviously a huge piece to this puzzle, but I think the key to this season, more than making a big splash in free agency, is how they handle their top prospects. Do they trade one or two for that immediate difference maker or do they commit to giving them playing time with the assumption there will be a learning curve early on? What do you think the Twins should do this offseason? Make a splash whether it be free agency or a trade, or rely on the likes of Rooker, Kiriloff, etc. to contribute in 2021? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Last week, I wrote about the Most Valuable Non-Prospect Offensive Trade Pieces. This week I will focus on which non-prospect pitchers I think are most valuable on the trade market. These are players that I don’t necessarily think will, or should, get traded but provide the most valuable towards a hypothetical move.More often than not we tie top prospects to big name trades because of their potential and years of team control remaining. In 2020, the Twins trotted out one of the oldest pitching staffs in all of baseball although, at an average age of 30.0, only four of the 23 pitchers used were older than the average: Kenta Maeda, Caleb Thielbar, Tyler Clippard, and Sergio Romo. Of that group Maeda is the only one guaranteed to return while Thielbar is still under team control and Romo has a club option of five million that could be picked up. Unlike the Twins offensive prospects mentioned in the previous article, there aren’t any pitching prospects that will be sure fire impact players in 2021. Especially considering the pandemic lost 2020 season, you might see the likes of Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, or Blayne Enlow but I’d be surprised if the Twins are counting on them to make any significant impact next year. That is to say that I think any trade involving non-prospects would come from dealing an offensive player rather than a pitcher. Regardless, the Twins have some valuable pieces that theoretically could be moved. Kenta Maeda, 32, 3 years AAV $3.125MM = 3 years, $9.375MM salary not including incentivesThe Twins aren’t trading Kenta Maeda. But this article isn’t predicting players that could or should be traded, rather identifying who would be most valuable. Although he’s already 32, he’s coming off a season where he competed for a Cy Young while only making $5.31MM after incentives. Without analyzing every pitchers contract in baseball, I have to imagine that you aren’t going to find a better deal around the league.Jose Berrios, 26, projected 1 year $5.4MM via arbitration per MLB Trade Rumors + 1 year of arbitration = 2 years of team controlThe Twins aren’t trading Jose Berrios either, but at only 26-years-old and many thinking he hasn’t reached his ceiling he carries a lot of value with two more years of team control. If you follow me on twitter you know I don’t think Berrios will ever be the true “ace” that many thought he was once projected to be and I don’t totally buy into him being a contending teams second best pitcher. My opinion aside, there are plenty of cases of pitchers developing into “aces” in their late 20’s...ever heard of Max Scherzer? Outside of those two your other options include young-ish guys who are still under team control for multiple seasons. The only pitcher guaranteed to come back in 2021 I would exclude from this list is Michael Pineda. Otherwise the likes of Randy Dobnak, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Cody Stashak, Devin Smeltzer, and Jorge Alcala could be of interest to some teams. That said, if you trade one of those guys I don’t know that you’re getting a return that improves your 2021 Major League team and I don’t know that you’re getting anyone that really improves your farm system. As I said before, if the Twins were to make a trade to improve the 2021 team that didn’t involve prospects I think you’re looking at someone on the offensive side of the ball. Any trade involving any of the pitchers named above would likely need to include multiple pieces to improve the 2021 team, which makes it unlikely a trade like that happens. If the Twins were to make a trade where is their biggest hole? What would help their 2021 World Series chances the most? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Despite having one of baseball's best offenses, the Twins are averaging less than two runs per postseason game over the last two seasons. In 2020 a few players took a turn for the worse and with prospects waiting in the wings, now might be the time to move on from some of their big league regulars.More often than not we tie top prospects to big name trades because of their potential and years of team control remaining. According to Baseball Reference, the Twins had the 8th oldest line up in 2020 at an average age of 28.7 although the likes of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez skew that a little. Sorting the Twins by at bats in 2020 shows that of the top 10 Cruz and Gonzalez, and Ehire Adrianza are the only players that are older than the average. Replacing Cruz’s 185 at-bats with a 25-year-old Brent Rooker and the Twins are all of a sudden the 8th youngest lineup in baseball. No, that’s not an exact science, but my point is that for having one of the best offenses in baseball the Twins are young. In 2021 the team may try and retain Cruz, but I think we’ve seen the last of Gonzalez and Adrianza in Twins uniforms. This will leave room for either a couple of free agent additions or for a couple prospects to get semi-regular or more playing time. With Rooker, Alex Kiriloff, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis all being legitimate candidates to play for the Twins in 2021 it may be time to make room for them in the Major League lineup rather than wait for a current starter to succumb to an injury. With a logjam in the outfield, I think the Twins will let Eddie Rosario walk...at this point we know Eddie’s ceiling which can be good but we also know his floor. If I’m the Twins I want to give an opportunity to one of the aforementioned prospects in 2021. That still leaves us with two more outfielders and another who could play the outfield if needed. Though they may not be prospects anymore, the Twins have some young Major League starters who have years of team control left and are on team friendly deals. These are the top three most valuable non-prospect offensive players that I would consider trading over the offseason. 1. Max Kepler, 27, 4 years AAV $7MM + $10MM 5th year team option = 5 years, $7.6MM maximum It didn’t take long for Max Kepler to establish himself as an everyday Major Leaguer and really breakthrough in 2019 having his best year as a pro. There’s no doubt that he struggled in 2020, specifically making solid contact, but how much does one weird season outweigh the two seasons previous where he produced a combined 7.1 fWAR? By the way, that would rank him as the 15th best outfielder in baseball. On the defensive side of the ball you have one of the best corner outfielders in the game, as well as someone who has shown the ability to play centerfield at an above average level. Combine this with an extremely cheap contract maxing out at $38MM over five-years, and you may have one of the most valuable Major League starters in all of baseball. 2. Jorge Polanco, 27, 4 years AAV $5.3MM + 10.5MM 5th year vested option + $12MM 6th year team option = 6 years, AAV $7.3MM maximum We knew at the time of Polanco and Kepler contracts that they were very team friendly, but it’s surprising to see how truly team friendly they are when you consider their contributions to the lineup. Like Kepler, Polanco was another player who didn’t take long to establish himself at the Major League level. Like Kepler, he broke out with a bang in 2019. And like Kepler, he really struggled in 2020. Unlike Kepler, it was learned the day after the Twins lost game two against Houston that Polanco hadn’t really been healthy for a majority of the season. Back-to-back offseason ankle surgeries will definitely hurt his value a little bit, but that fifth year option only vests if he has 550 at-bats in year four. Furthermore, the fifth year can be bought out for just $1MM. Assuming this ankle surgery isn’t career altering, at worst a team is looking at a guy who could fill-in at 2B, SS, and 3B for just an average salary of $5.5MM. Not bad considering Marwin made more than double that in 2019 alone. 3. Luis Arraez, 24, 2 years of team control + 3 years of arbitration = 5 years maximum I debated Buxton here but with his checkered injury history and only two years of arbitration remaining, I think Arraez carries more value on the trade market. Arraez unexpectedly broke onto the scene in 2019 in place of a struggling Jonathon Schoop and forced Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli to make him an everyday player. Unlike our previous two players, Arraez mostly picked up from where he left off in 2019. It took him a while to get going in 2020 but he ended the season slashing 0.321/0.364/0.402 while improving his defense immensely. Do I think the Twins will trade him? No. But you can’t deny the value a Major League caliber player has at just 24 years old with five more years of team control, including two of which will be for an AAV around $600K. On base guys with no power may not be the cool thing anymore, but putting a guy like that at the top of a lineup in front of a cool guy sounds enticing to me! Do you think the Twins will make a big move this offseason? If so, does that move just come from free agency? Does it involve a prospect? Or does it involve someone that contributed in 2020 that isn’t on this list? If not, are you really comfortable with them standing pat after the up and down season this offense had in 2020? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I’ve been thinking about this. I actually might lean the following: Maeda for GM1 If win GM1: Berrios for GM2 If lose GM1: Pineda for GM2 If clinch series in GM2: Pineda GM1 of DS If GM3: Pineda if he didn’t pitch GM2, otherwise Berrios.

With MLB announcing their postseason schedule, questions surrounding Jake Odorizzi’s health, and the option of Randy Dobnak the Twins find themselves in a precarious spot 10 days before their first playoff game. Who should the Twins rely and how should they manage the condensed postseason schedule?Typically in the postseason you see teams operate with a three to four-man rotation, but that won’t be the case in 2020 as MLB adds an extra six teams while still starting the World Series in mid-October. In the entire postseason, the only planned off days for teams in the midst of a series are between games 2/3 and 5/6 in the World Series. Other than that, teams only off days will be between series, which likely requires the use of a five man rotation throughout the postseason. The news comes kind of late in the season as I’d think teams would have made some additional moves at the trade deadline to strengthen their bullpen and/or the back end of their rotation had they known that the postseason schedule provided little time for rest. Specifically the Twins, who haven’t had their rotation at 100% for the entire season, really find themselves in a pickle with Odorizzi going back on the IL and Dobnak struggling in three of his last four starts leading to being optioned off the active roster. Now we’re 10 days away from playoff baseball and we need to figure things out pretty quickly, so lets look at what their five-man rotation will look like. #1 Kenta Maeda Maeda is the obvious game one starter for the Wild Card match up. He’s not only been the Twins best pitcher this season, but he’s legitimately in the Cy Young conversation. No matter the opponent, you should have the confidence that Maeda can end the 16-game postseason losing streak. #2 Michael Pineda Michael Pineda has been lights out for the Twins dating back to last season. Say what you want about his suspension, and what that did to the team in 2020, he is the Twins second best pitcher. Prior to missing the 2018 season, you’d see Pineda sitting 93-95 with his fastball and, after his return, it took him until late May to really regain that velo. From his start on May 21st, 2019 to now Pineda has struck out more than a batter per inning while allowing just over one base runner per inning and boasting an ERA/FIP of 3.32/2.95. #3 José Berríos I know ranking him behind Pineda will rub some the wrong way. I know that he has a K/9 of 10.7 and ERA/FIP of 2.60/3.05 in his last five starts including facing the White Sox twice. But for me it takes more than five starts to erase what happened over the calendar prior to these five starts. From August 20th, 2019 to August 19th, 2020 Berrios had an ERA/FIP of 5.24/4.15 while having a poor walk rate of 3.5 BB/9. He’s shown flashes of ace level production throughout his career while also showing flashes of being a middle of the rotation guy. He might have better “stuff” than anyone on the staff but he’s far too inconsistent for my liking. #4 Rich Hill I considered Hill over Berrios but I figured I was suffering from recency bias after watching Rich Hill cruise through 7 innings against the Cubs. Though I did think about it again after I looked at his postseason resume, which features 12 starts including three in the World Series, where he’s allowed just 15 baserunners and three earned runs while striking out 19 over 15 innings pitched. In all, his postseason ERA/FIP is 3.06/3.97 and K/9 is 11.04 and experience matters in the postseason. I think I talked myself into Hill over Berrios but I don’t really want to receive hate mail so I’ll keep him at the number four slot. #5 Jake Odorizzi / Randy Dobnak / Bullpen Game(s) / Homer Bailey With so much unknown it’s really hard to know who the fifth guy should be, let alone who it’s going to be. The order that I listed them is the order in which I would trust them with a considerable gap between Odorizzi and the rest of the group. I noted my concerns with Dobnak earlier this year and I don’t know how we can trust Homer Bailey who has only pitched five innings in 2020...if he's even going to be an option. I wouldn’t rule out a some sort of combo game with Odorizzi and Dobnak or a short start from one of those two combined with a mini bullpen game. Depending on the situation, Rocco might need to get creative here. It’s all about perspective and roles when you talk about starting pitchers, and although the Twins don’t have the big names (I know Maeda is currently making a name for himself), they arguably have the best one through four in all of baseball. What do you think about Hill and Berrios? Am I going crazy or would you consider flip flopping them too? What about that number five spot? No matter who it is, they come with question marks. Which option would you trust most in that group? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article