Matthew Lenz

Twins right-handed pitching prospect, Bailey Ober, made his Major League debut on May 18th against the Chicago White Sox. Unlike his rise to the majors as a 12th round pick, we were a little slow to this but, as they say...better late than never! Let’s take a look back at his rise to the Majors in his prospect retrospective. He was knocked around a bit in his debut going four innings, allowing six baserunners and four earned runs off of two homeruns while striking out four hitters. In his second start, against the Kansas City Royals on June 6th, he once again went four innings with four strikeouts but kept the ball in the ballpark and allowed just one run. Prep Career Ober attended Charlotte Chrisitan School in Charlotte, NC where he helped his team win state championships in his Junior (2012) and Senior (2013) years. His bio at the College of Charleston, where he would go on to played for three years, goes onto say that as a Senior he “posted [a] 10-0 record with 0.45 ERA and 99 strikeouts”, and actually played baseball with another local professional athlete: Ober started his college career strong as head coach Monte Lee, who is now at Clemson, said “Ober has been our guy. He really commands the strike zone well and doesn’t miss his spot...He spots his fastball well and his changeup is very good. The breaking ball, over time, has become a much better pitch, too” in an Mid Major Spotlight article by Perfect Game. He would go on to be selected as Freshman Pitcher of the Year by the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association posting a 10-3 record, 1.52 ERA, and 85 strikeouts across 106.2 innings. Unfortunately, Ober was forced to take a redshirt for his true sophomore season as he required season-ending Tommy John surgery. Although he was not as dominant upon his return in his redshirt sophomore, he did well enough to get drafted by the Dodgers in the 23rd round of the MLB Draft but ultimately elected to return to Charleston for his redshirt Junior year where struck out more than one hitter per inning and more than six strikeouts to each walk across 10 starts. That lead to him getting drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 MLB Draft Professional Career Despite striking out 11.7 batters per nine in his final collegiate season, Ober was drafted being known for his command of the strike zone and having a four-pitch arsenal with great movement. That said, in his first three professional seasons he continued to strikeout more than one batter per inning combined with an elite walk rate of around one per nine. His success lead to a quick ascension through the Minor League system starting the 2019 season with the GCL-Twins and ending the season at AA-Pensacola, where he posted a 0.69 ERA and 11.11 K/BB over 78.2 innings and 13 starts. In 2020, Ober was rated as the 30th best prospect in the organization and moved up to 23rd in 2021 despite losing a second season of competition in six years. Following the 2020 season, Ober was added to the 40-man roster and prior to making his 2021 debut, he had made four starts for AAA-St. Paul with a 2.81 ERA and a 4.20 K/BB. Ober was then called up on May 18th after the Twins moved Michael Pineda to the IL. Twins Daily Coverage READ: Get To Know Twins RHP Prospect Bailey Ober by Seth Stohs in January of 2018. READ: Bailey Ober on His 2019 Successes by Seth Stohs in September of 2019. READ & WATCH: Highlights: 4 Twins Prospects Off to Hot Starts by Tom Froemming in May of 2015. READ & WATCH: Twins Spotlight: Episode 9 (Bailey Ober) by Seth Stohs in November of 2020. READ: Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects: 16-20 by Tom Froemming in February of 2021. READ: The Next Minnesota Twins by Steve Lein in April of 2021. READ: Time for a Changing of the Guard by Cody Pirkl in June of 2021. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Twins come out on top against the Royals on Sunday afternoon after another game of struggling to push across runs. They were able to split the four-game series against the Royals improving to 23-35 on the season. That and more in today’s game recap. Box Score Bailey Ober: 4 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (72.5% strikes) Homeruns: none Top 3 WPA: Rogers (.452), Larnach (.120), Duffey (.110) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs) Ober Efficient in Second Career Start Like his first Major League start, Ober gave the Twins four strikeouts in four innings but this time he was able to keep hitters in the ballpark leading to just one run scored. Ober was looking good early after going six up-six down in the first two innings including three strikeouts, executing the scouting report on the Royals: The “Rocco pulls his pitchers too early” crowd will not be happy as Ober only needed 51 pitches to get through those four innings, but the Royals were hitting the ball hard and had an xBA of .342 going into the top of the fifth. Moreover, in the third the Royals had runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out before Miguel Sanó was involved in his third triple play in as many years and the fifteenth in franchise history: Even in the fourth inning, Royals hitters were starting to get to Ober after Alex Kirilloff misplayed a lead-off Whit Merrifield single, turning it into a standup triple. Fortunately, Andrelton Simmons was shifted behind second base to snare a Carlos Santana line drive that helped limit the damage of the inning to just one run on three hits. Twins Load the Bases but Struggle to Score I mean that both figuratively and literally. Brady Singer needed 106 pitches to get through five and two-thirds innings where he allowed eight hits and three walks, yet the Twins were only able to manage two runs scored going 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position. But literally in the fifth, Polanco placed a bunt perfectly down the third baseline which loaded the bases with nobody out. After back-to-back strikeouts from Kirilloff and Sanó, the Twins were able to scrape together a run thanks to a Trevor Larnach hit-by-pitch. On the day the Twins finished going 2-for-11 with 10 left on base. With all of that said, it’s hard to be totally negative when you are able to get on base 13 times like the Twins did today. Strikeouts aside, Miguel Sanó continued to hit the ball hard today with an RBI double that gave the Twins their first lead in the third, as well as hitting a shot to centerfied in the 6th that had an exit velocity of 96.5 miles per hour and an xBA of .390. More encouraging is the continued hitting of Nick Gordon who went 2-for-4 upping his OPS to .979 while swiping his third base on the season, as the Twins organization continues to develop middle infield talent after seeing Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco experience success in recent years. Bullpen Turns in Solid Series A Taylor Rogers high leverage save was a great way to cap off a tremendous weekend by the Twins bullpen. After a taxing six and two-thirds inning on Friday night, the Twins relief pitchers were able to shut down the Royals for three innings on Saturday and five innings on Sunday, not to mention three innings of one (unearned) run ball on Thursday night. Although it may be too little too late for 2021, the Twins will likely be seeking to get some value out of one-year rentals Alex Colomé and Hansel Robles via trades while also giving pitchers like Jorge Alcala and Luke Farrell an opportunity to showcase their talents for 2022 and beyond. WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Anderson 0 0 62 0 0 62 Farrell 0 11 0 0 13 24 Colomé 21 0 0 0 0 21 Robles 0 20 0 10 15 45 Duffey 0 12 0 7 14 33 Alcala 3 0 7 0 10 20 Rogers 0 0 0 12 0 12 A lot of fans were hoping that 13 games against the Orioles and Royals would ignite this team into the playoff contender they were projected to be. Unfortunately, the Twins end up going 6-7 over that stretch and now face Yankees and Astros for six games at home after an off-day on Monday. I’d imagine these last two weeks were the figurative “nail in the coffin” for even the most optimistic fans. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Twins outfield prospect, Gilberto Celestino, made his Major League debut on June 2nd against the Baltimore Orioles going 0-for-2 with a strikeout before being lifted in the top of the 8th by a pinch hitter. Let’s take a look back at his rise to the Majors in his prospect retrospective. Amateur Career Coming out of the Dominican Republic, there isn’t really any statistical data on his amateur career before being signed as an international free agent in July of 2015. At the time he was considered the #11 international prospect and MLB.com’s scouting report read as follows: “Known for his athletic ability and instincts in the outfield, Celestino is projected to start in center field and likely stay there as he develops because of his speed, arm and his ability to get good jumps in the outfield. He's lean but is expected to fill out as he matures. Scouts like his makeup and expect him to reach his potential once he signs with a team and receives daily instruction. One of the most polished players in the class, Celestino is known as a "gamer" because he has a track record of success in tournaments in the Dominican Republic. He's gained a reputation as one of the better game players in the class, despite varying opinions on his some of his tools.” Professional Career After signing with the Astros for a total of $2.5 million, including a $2.25 million signing bonus, Celestino played 56 games between the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an OPS of .758. Over two and a half seasons and 152 games, Celestino sported an OPS of .753 with 10 homeruns and 39 stolen bases reaching as high as AA for the Astros. Just nine days before he was traded to the Twins, The Runners Sports published this article comparing him to the 6th overall pick from the 2012 MLB draft. On July 29th, 2018 the Twins received Celestino and right-handed pitcher Jorge Alcala in a package that sent Ryan Pressly to the Astros. At the time, Celestino was their 15th rated prospect in a farm system that ranked 10th best in baseball according to Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com. In his one-and-a-half seasons prior to losing the 2020 Minor League season to COVID, he hit 11 homeruns, stole 22 bases, and had an OPS of____. The Twins thought highly enough of the speedy centerfield to add him to the 40-man roster following the 2019 season and added him to the 60-man player pool in 2020. After many injuries at the Major League level and a solid start at AA-Wichita he was called up on June 2nd. Twins Daily Coverage WATCH: Highlight Reel created by Tom Froemming in February of 2020. Consider this his HYPE video. READ: Trade Retrospective: How Did the Twins Do in the Ryan Presley Trade? by Cody Christie in August of 2020. I don’t know that we are any closer to a clear answer right now, but it’s encouraging that both pieces from that trade have made it to Minneapolis. READ: Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects: 11-15 by Nick Nelson in February of 2021. He came in as Twins Daily 11th ranked prospect in 2021, one spot ahead of Brent Rooker, which is one spot higher than he was in 2020. READ: Celestino Looking to Impress this Spring, Debut this Summer(?) by Seth Stohs in March of 2021. Is there anyone more in tune with the Twins farm system than Seth? My vote: “nay”. READ: One Twins Prospect to Watch at Each Minor League Level by Cody Christie in May of 2021. Celestino was Cody’s prospect to watch heading into this season...who knew we’d get to do it at Target Field or on Bally Sports North?! Oh yeah, Seth had a feeling. READ: Examining Minnesota's Center Field Depth by Cody Christie in June of 2021. This was written days ago amid the Twins throwing Rob Refsnyder and Kyle Garlick in centerfield. Welcome to the bigs, Gilberto! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Would love to see an extension that is no more than 3 years, preferably 2, and at an AAV in the mid to low teens.

After naming Mitch Garver the first Twins Daily Minnesota Twins Hitter of the Month, it is now time to look at the first pitcher who earned the distinguished honor of being recognized by Twins Daily. Come for the award announcement and stay for the debate in the comments! This race wasn’t as clear cut as the race for hitters was, and I found it a challenge trying to value starters versus relievers especially between the Pitcher of the Month and the 1st Honorable Mention. Honorable Mention #3: Alex Colomé This honorable mention feels a lot like writing Sano down in my last piece...not great….BUT I felt it was important to recognize Colomé for the marked improvement since March/April. After all, did you know… ...and on top of that he was statistically the worst reliever in all of baseball for the first month of the season. Woof. On the other hand, in the month of May he made 11 appearances only giving up two earned runs and striking out more than one hitter per inning. Unfortunately, some of his metrics (i.e. BB/9 and FIP) don’t really support the improvement so we’ll see how long it lasts. You could argue Michael Pineda or Randy Dobnak deserve a little recognition and that’s where I struggled valuing relievers versus starters, but ultimately neither of those made more than two appearances in the month. Honorable Mention #2: Hansel Robles Aside from the first couple sentences, I feel like I could copy and paste what I said about Colomé right here. Even down to the “I don’t know how long this will last” comment. With only two clean innings in the month, Tom provided us with a new, yet familiar moniker for his appearances. Honestly, you could use the same monker for Colomé and most of the bullpen, but it feels better fitting for Robles given how he ended the month against the Orioles on Monday. What’s worse about Robles is his penchant for walking people has been a career long issue aside from his career year in 2019, and even in the month of May his FIP is more than a run worse than his ERA. I think the best case scenario for Robles and Colomé is that they remain serviceable enough to provide value at the trade deadline, but I wouldn’t count on it. Honorable Mention #1: José Berríos Berríos made a strong case to win the pitcher of the month with his second best start of the year on Memorial Day against the Orioles, but he was pretty subpar in the first half of the month to take the cake. That said, it was great to see Berríos have an efficient and effective outing against one of the worst hitting teams against right handed pitchers. That’s not to diminish his start but to suggest that he did exactly what he needed to on Monday...attack the zone, let them put the ball in-play, and have the defense do the work for you. Consistency has been Berríos biggest issue throughout his career and this month was no different where he had three starts allowing three or more earned runs and three starts earning two or less earned runs. His next start will likely come against the Royals which he faced on May 2nd and got tagged for four runs over six innings. Pitcher of the Month: Taylor Rogers Take out his first two appearances in the first four days of the month and Rogers puts up a 2.53/1.81 ERA/FIP, a 15.2 K/9, and accruing four holds+saves over 10.1 innings pitched. Even considering those first two appearances where he gave up four earned runs in 2.1 innings, he still was my choice for the first Twins Daily Minnesota Twins Pitcher of the Month. Rogers has had a nice bounce back season in 2020 and that can be at least partially attributed to the location of his sinker. From the GIF above, you can see he has been locating his sinker on the edges of the plate and the results are noticeable. In 2020, batters slugged .561 against the pitch while in this season they are down to .400 and the putaway rate on the pitch has increased by 57% between the last two seasons. What’s more is that Rogers is currently at the 100th percentile in chase rate this year thanks to his command of the zone with that pitch despite his batted ball data being roughly similar over the last two seasons. The Twins still have another year of Rogers after this season, so him coming back to his pre-2020 form is good to see. Congrats to Taylor Rogers on winning the first Twins Daily Minnesota Twins Pitcher of the Month! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Likewise, we appreciate your readership and engagement. At the end of the day, we all just like talking Twins baseball...even when they're not very good

I really wanted to stop my list at 2 honorable mentions but was following the lede of the Minor League pieces that uses three honorable mentions for that exact reason. It didn't feel great writing Sano's name there but it also didn't feel great writing the name of someone who played in half the games and ended the month so poorly. You're right though...that's a reflection of how this season has gone.

Along with being the Twins most improved position player, Mitch Garver runs away with the first ever Twins Daily Minnesota Twins Hitter of the Month. Although it’s been a mostly miserable season and month for the Twins, let's look at some other positives at the plate. Before we dive into one of Mitch Garver’s best months as a Twins catcher, let's look at a few Twins hitters who had a good month of May but ultimately missed the cut. Honorable Mention #3: Miguel Sano I know, I know….he struck out A LOT, including three more times on Monday against the Orioles but throughout the entirety of the month it was actually right around his career norm. The hot streak was short lived as he finished the month 3-for-36 with all singles but he also led the team and home runs with seven and a solid .331 wOBA. It will be really, really interesting to see how long Rocco Baldelli can justify playing Sano on a daily basis, especially when Kirilloff comes back. You might have been looking for Rob Refsnyder here but he played in just half the games throughout the month, which disqualified him in my mind, and he also finished with just two hits in his last 21 at-bats. Honorable Mention #2: Jorge Polanco It’s good to see Polanco start to hit a bit as he’s been mostly a liability at the plate since September of 2019 and had one of the worst hitting months of his career in March/April of this season. It wasn’t quite on par with his 2019 season but maybe it’s the start of getting back on track, and his Savant metrics seem to concur that his month might not be a fluke. The move over to 2nd hasn’t gone as well as many had hoped and with Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, and Royce Lewis all looking to compete for a starting spot over the next few years Polanco will need to get back to his 2019 ways to stick in the line up. He had the highest walk percentage he’s had in a month in five seasons and the highest hard hit rate in a month of his career can be attributed to the successful month, but I think a little negative regression is likely as a 50.8-percent hard hit rate is not sustainable and is 18 points higher than his carer norm. Honorable Mention #1: Trevor Larnach For a long time now, Larnach has been overshadowed by Alex Kirilloff when in fact his .857 OPS in 641 Minor League at-bats is just 12 points lower than Kirilloff and he can play just as well in the outfield. He played all the part of a top prospect in his first month with an OPS of .845, a wRC+ of 142, and he ranked 28th in all of baseball with a 9.7-percent barrel per plate appearance of batters with at least 25 batted ball events. Furthermore, our own Parker Hagemen provided this little tidbit after smoking a double on May 17th. At one point, I thought that maybe Larnach would be expendable because of Kirilloff but the first two months of this season have shown that both players belong in the starting lineup on a daily basis. Hitter of the Month: Mitch Garver At the end of the 2019 season, Garver looked like he might be the best complete catcher in the game showing marked improvement at and behind the plate. Unfortunately, extremely poor play possibly due to injury subsided those thoughts in 2020, and it was even more worrisome when that continued into the first month of this season. There were signs at the end of April that Garver was turning a corner as he was hitting the ball hard and had a criminally low BABIP, and that positive regression hit hard in May as he boasted the 6th highest wRC+ and 8th highest OPS of all players who had at least 60 plate appearances. Moreover, nine of his 16 hits in the month went for extra bases including this shot from Friday night against the Royals: Garver is in his 30-year-old season with two-years left of arbitration and, unless he continues hitting like this, will likely start splitting time with catcher-in-waiting Ryan Jeffers over the next two years. The Twins lousy record aside, Garver bouncing back from a down year could be great signs for the future similar to the tandem of him and Jason Castro from 2017-2019. Congrats to Garv Sauce for being the first Twins Daily Minnesota Twins Hitter of the Month! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Those numbers speak more to his durability than anything else as there have only been 53 pitchers to pitch 500+ innings since 2017. I understand that durability adds to his value but being 28th and 23rd in two categories puts him in the middle of the pack of that group. The players I came up with are based off of the recent trades in my previous article that showed a single pitcher doesn’t net you a top-100 guy without adding more to the deal.

Berríos is not a front line starter on a “****ty squad”, as you would say, what makes you think he’s a frontline starter on a non-“****ty squad”. His career era and FIP are near 4.00...thats “front line” to you???

The Twins best pitcher is 32...

In my last article, I analyzed José Berríos’ trade value using recent trades for what impact starters netted their former clubs. Now, I will look at a few teams that might look to bolster their rotation before or at the deadline and specific players the Twins could target. The last article generated some good discourse on this topic and really showed that fans really are split on this topic. Some are wondering if it’s a panic move based on two months of data while others are wondering who would replace Berríos in the rotation if he were traded? In Matthew Taylor’s article, which was the inspiration for my articles on this topic, he is of the ilk that the last two months show the Twins aren’t in that window to compete for a World Series this year or next. He doesn’t believe a complete rebuild is necessary, as the Twins boast one of the best farm systems in baseball, and thinks the window is just shifted to 2023 and beyond. On the other hand, I’ve just lost the faith in Berríos to take that next step to be a frontline starter but, with one-and-a-half years of team control remaining and being on the younger side, I think a team would “pay up” for that potential that many Twins fans thinks he still has. If the Twins were to hold him and look to sign an extension, I’d want it to be no more than $15MM AAV over a two or three years but even the top end of that feels too rich for me. If we were to move on from Berríos this year and think that we will compete in 2022, then there are about a dozen free agents options that I think would sufficiently replace him but that sounds like an article for another day. I think one thing that we need to be reminded of is that this informal series that Matthew and I have created wasn’t just a spur of the moment, “panic” decision. To be fair, this sounds more like speculation than an actual report but it comes from a legitimate journalist who’s been tied to Major League Baseball since the early 2000’s. Even if it’s speculation, he’s been through enough seasons and trade deadlines to have an idea on how the trade market could come together in the coming months. In particular, he mentioned the Blue Jays as a potential suitor but I also think the Braves and Yankees are two other teams who have the offense for a postseason run while needing some rotation help, and have the farm system necessary to add an impact starter. Looking at the Twins farm system and young talent already in the Majors, I think the biggest needs for the Twins would be a pitching prospect, ideally left-handed, and/or a prospect who could play third base who can help within the next couple of seasons. Theoretically, the Twins could probably piece together a second base/shortstop/third base puzzle that included Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, Royce Lewis, and even Keoni Cavaco over the next few seasons but they really don’t have a true third base prospect in their system. Based on my previous article, I don’t think the Twins will net a top-100 prospect for Berríos alone and would likely need to add another piece to sweeten the deal whether that be cash, a rent-a-reliever (i.e. Hansel Robles or Alex Colomé), or a position player (i.e. Kepler with the emergence of Larnach and Kirilloff). Without further ado, here are the players I would be targeting a Berríos deal. Toronto Blue Jays (24-23, 4th in AL East, 39.3% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs) The Jays farm system is stacked and they have one of the best offenses in baseball that needs to be supplemented with some pitching help in both their rotation and bullpen. If I were to put together a deal involving Berríos and one of our rent-a-relievers, I would be targeting the following: Simeon Woods-Richardson - RHP prospect known more for his command of the zone than being a power pitcher Jordan Groshans - a SS/3B prospect with a good bat who needs another season or two in the minors Alek Manoah - RHP prospect with a big arm that needs to improve control I’m more interested in the top two than Manoah and, of course, he’s coming off a fantastic MLB debut. They might be pressed to move on from Groshans as they don’t have any other future options at third with Vladimir Guerror Jr moving to 1st but, if the Twins are sellers, they’ll have the assets to net him and Woods-Richardson. Atlanta Braves (24-25, 2nd in the NL East, 36.1% chance to make the playoffs) Like the Blue Jays, the Braves have the offense to contend but really need help in their rotation and bullpen making them a good match if the Twins are sellers. Moreover, they have one of the better farm systems in baseball making it plausible they’d be willing to move things around to make a push in the second half of the season. I would target the following: Braden Shewmake - 2B/SS prospect projects as a good contact hitter with good speed and a good glove, but not great skills. Tucker Davidson - LHP prospect who projects to be good, not great, with a plus fastball but needs to work on improving his offspeed. Kyle Muller - hard throwing LHP prospect with plus pitches but struggles with control which will likely be a deciding factor in how his career plays out. As I mentioned earlier, the Twins are chalked full with young middle infield options but when Shewmake was drafted (2019, 1st round) some thought his long-term outlook was at 3rd base, although he’s played exclusively at short in the Braves system. Of the two lefties, which is a need for the Twins, Muller has the higher ceiling while Davidson has the higher floor and has also made two appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons. New York Yankees (28-20, 1st in the AL East, 87.0% chance to make the playoffs) The Yankees starting rotation has been better than most would have thought but just lost Corey Kluber for at least two months to a shoulder injury, and I don’t think they have the reinforcements that can be relied on in 2021. I would target the following: Luis Medina - hard throwing RHP prospect who really needs to work on control. Probably needs at least one or two more seasons in the minors. I didn’t even mention higher ranked RHP prospects like Clarke Schmidt who has already had Tommy John surgery and multiple issues with his elbow, Luis Gil or Deivi Garcia who don’t move the needle for me. On the other hand, Medina would be an intriguing project that has the potential to be better than Berríos but also has the floor where he’s a non-factor. Outside of Jasson “the next Mike Trout” Dominguez, they don’t have the farm system to acquire a big-time arm (i.e. Max Scherzer) midseason, so a mid level starter like Berríos is probably more realistic. I wouldn’t be overly concerned with our lack of 3rd base prospects and would be targeting pitchers as the headliner in a trade involving Berríos, as you can never have enough pitching. Furthermore, I think finding a team like the Blue Jays or Braves that need help in the rotation and bullpen could really help a better prospect by creating a bigger package of immediate contributors to potential playoff teams. What are your thoughts on some of the names in this article? There are undoubtedly more teams that would be interested in Berríos...do you have a certain team or prospect in mind you’d like to see the Twins acquire? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Matthew Taylor's article was definitely of the tune that 2021 is lost and he doesn't see us as a contender in 2022 with how this team is playing and is structured, and he even drew comparisons to the 2011 Twins team. For me, I just don't believe in Berrios and haven't since the 2nd half of 2019 when he had a stellar first half and it looked like he had taken that next step, but then reverted back to the pitcher he was before and has been since in the 2nd half. In regards to your other post, I admit that I am thinking Berrios wants to be paid like a frontend guy despite their not being any proof of that, but I base that off of his deleted tweet from 2019 and this 2018 article when he switched representation. I'm not blaming Berrios for wanting to get paid...that'd be asinine, but I am saying that I don't want to pay him anything more than mayyyybe $15MM AAV over 2-3 years. If he agrees to that then great, but I don't know why he wouldn't test the market at this point. Who replaces him in 2022 if we think the Twins are contenders? There are about a dozen pending free agents for 2022 that I'd rather have over the same timeframe.

In his career he's right around 50/50 which is admittedly better than I would have thought, but over the last two years 64% of his starts have been less than 6 innings. His career strike% and BB% are both below average. He has great "stuff" but what limits his ceiling is his inability to consistently locate it.

Watching Berrios inefficiently pitch less than six innings through most starts gives me more of a headache than making sure I get value out of Berrios if he is going to walk anyway does.

I know this is your own opinion/speculation but I strongly disagree that he is "deflated on this team". If that were to be the case, he would be hurting his own cause as teams are going to pay him less based on his previous statistics. Further, if there was evidence of those that is going to limit his market as some teams (I hope the Twins included) would stay away from a guy that doesn't put his best foot forward.

A little preview into my next article, but I would want them to go after a young pitcher who is close to ready to contribute at the ML level.

If the Twins are out of the race (I think the next week and a half will be very telling), then who cares who replaces him? It seems like he wants to be paid more than he is actually worth and if he is going to walk next year, you might as well get something for him in return. Pineda has been our best pitcher by nearly every metric except for IP and K/9. I'd like to see Dobnak and Thorpe given some run in the rotation to see what they're long term outlook is. Can they be successful enough to be backend rotation pieces, are they better suited for the bullpen, or are they not consistent enough to really be impactful MLB caliber pitchers. We've seen both do well and both struggle in small sample sizes. Balzovic, Duran, and Caterino can all compete for a spot next year and the Twins will likely need to add via FA as they will lose Shoemaker and Happ.

Recently, our own Matthew Taylor wrote the time to trade José Berríos is right now. I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment and, in this article, will try to get an idea what a return could look like for the 26-year-old former top-100 prospect. I will let you read Matthew’s article in full as he does a tremendous job of explaining why now is the time, but will add that I’ve been ready to move on simply due to his lack of development. Berríos has been the same pitcher since his first full season in 2017 where he’ll give you 5-6 strikeouts, 2-3 walks, and an ERA/FIP in the high 3’s, but he’ll have those couple performances that’ll leave you thinking he can be an “ace” in this league. In short, he hasn’t shown consistent effectiveness or efficiency to prove he can become an “ace” and, although exact details have never been leaked, he wants to get paid more than the Twins are willing to pay him. In my opinion, Berríos is a middle of the rotation arm (low-2/high-3) who likely wants to be paid like a frontline guy which I don't think they should do. This brings me back to Matthew’s article where he went on to say “Berríos possesses the talent and the years of control that should bring back a top-100 prospect (and then some) in return.” Inarguably, there is still some upside to Berríos, some people will quickly remind you that Scherzer took time to become Scherzer, and his durability cannot be understated, but can he really net a “top-100 prospect and then some”? Let's take a look. I went back to the last few seasons to find trades that involved starting pitchers who had the potential to make an immediate impact to a big league club. Before diving in, understand that no situation is going to be the same as contracts and years of team control can obviously vary, teams have been financially impacted by COVID-19, and the current CBA expires in December. All that said, it’s not completely apples and oranges to look at previous trades and I’d think teams would use that to help establish the market for Berríos. Padres acquire RHP Mike Clevinger, OF Greg Allen and a PTBN from the Indians for C Austin Hedges, 1B/OF Josh Naylor, RHP Cal Quantrill, SS Gabriel Arias, IF Owen Miller and LHP Joey Cantillo Clevinger has had a much better, yet shorter, career compared to Berríos while also having an extra year of team control at the time of this trade, but on the flipside he’s also three-and-a-half years older than José. Even considering the age difference and now knowing that Clevinger is out with Tommy John surgery, I think most would take Clevinger over Berríos in a heartbeat. This deal included two young, MLB ready guys in Naylor and Quantrill but none of Arias, Miller, and Cantillo were or are currently top-100 guys, although Quantrill was as high as #38 back in 2017. Astros acquire SP Zack Greinke and $25MM from D-backs for Seth Beer, J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Josh Rojas Age is a big difference here, but the Astros were acquiring a former Cy Young and gold glove winner, bonafide ace, who still had two-and-a-half years left on his contract and received about a third of his remaining salary from the Diamondbacks. At the time of the deal, Seth Beer was the only top-100 prospect (coming in at #96) and entering the 2021 season none of the prospects the Diamondbacks received are ranked in the top-100 although three of the four are currently in the organizations top-30 prospects. Marlins trade SP Trevor Richards and RP Nick Anderson to Rays for opener Ryne Stanek and OF prospect Jesús Sánchez I almost view this trade as Richards for Sánchez as Anderson and Stanek were pretty equal, although comparing the two relievers minor league track record shows that Anderson maybe has the higher upside. Anyway, at the time of this trade, Richards had 45 starts under his belt, looked to be less talented than Berríos, but still had five plus years of team control before becoming a free agent. By giving up the two better players in the deal, the Marlins received the 51st best prospect in all of baseball in Sánchez but is currently unranked after batting .040 in 25 big league at-bats in 2020. Marlins trade SP Zac Gallen to D-backs for SS prospect Jazz Chisholm At the time of this deal, Gallen was emerging as a promising young arm for the Marlins sporting an ERA under 3 and a K/9 north of 10 and on the previous day had limited the bomba squad to one homerun over seven innings while striking out eight. He still had six plus years of team control and In return the Marlins received the 54th best prospect in baseball in Chisholm whose time clock hadn’t yet started as he had only reached AA. Now, Chisholm is competing for the NL Rookie of the Year with an OPS of .817 and wRC+ of 127. Mets trade SP Marcus Stroman and $1.55MM in cash to Blue Jays for Minor League pitchers Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson At the time of the deal, Stroman was having the best year of his career and was in the some spot as Berríos having one plus year of team control left before being a restricted free agent. Comparatively, Berríos and Stroman have had similar careers although Stroman strikes out and walks less batters while also being less susceptible to the long ball. In return, the Blue Jays received two prospects who were outside of the top-100 at the time of the deal, but to this point Woods-Richardson is the 74th ranked prospect in baseball while Kay has struggled in his first 52.2 big league innings. A’s acquire LHP Mike Minor from the Rangers for Dustin Harris, Marcus Smith, and $133K of international slot bonus money Stick with me here...I promise I’m not trolling the Berríos stan’s with this one… By age and contract, Mike Minor (32) and Jose Berríos are not super comparable BUT (here’s the kicker, for me) statistically they have been nearly the same pitcher throughout their careers and, moreover, ZiPS projects in two years Berríos will still basically be Mike Minor. Minor Career (thru 08/31/2020) Berríos 3.98 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 Career: 4.05 FIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 ZiPs 2023: 3.97 FIP, 9.22 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 Minor, who was just a one month rental for the A’s, had a pretty poor 2020 which obviously hurt his trade value and thus didn’t even net two players that are ranked in the Rangers Top 30, let alone Major League Baseball’s Top-100. Moreover, the $133K in international slot bonus money obviously helps but doesn’t move the needle a ton either. Undoubtedly, a deal involving Berríos will net more than this but I thought it was interesting to see how similar these two pitchers are, and I think it really just proves Matthew Taylor’s original claim that we need to trade Berríos now. That said, after analyzing recent trades I don’t think I can confidently predict the Twins “should bring back a top-100 prospect (and then some) in return” just for Berríos. In the deals that netted a top-100 prospect there was more at play than simply getting a young-ish pitcher with a year plus of team control left: Greinke is far superior to Berríos yet still only netted the #96 prospect in baseball, among other pieces. Marlins sent high-ceiling reliever Nick Anderson to sweeten the deal for the Rays. Gallen was much younger, had many more years of team control remaining, and had pitched almost as well through his first seven starts as Berríos ever has in any seven start stretch of his career. Two years after the deal was completed, the Blue Jays can claim they received a top-100 prospect from the Mets. Especially with the unknown of the next CBA and the 2022 season, I think it’s realistic to think the Twins are going to need to add at least one additional sem-impactful piece (hmm...maybe a rent-a-reliever???) to a deal with Berríos to net a top-100 prospect. Next week, I will look into the teams that may be interested in a Berríos deal and some prospects the Twins could receive in return. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article