Matthew Lenz

Almost exactly what he's given us aside the from the worst start of his career.

Whether we give Shoemaker another 2 weeks or so will have 0 impact on "the kids". The guy hasn't pitched in three years and has kept us in the game for all but two of his starts. What more can you ask out of your #5 guy?

On Friday, Twins right-hander Matt Shoemaker made his seventh start with the club. Allowing five earned runs doesn’t look attractive in the box score, but I’d argue that Shoemaker has met expectations to this point in the season. Admittedly, Shoemaker hasn’t had a great start to his Twins tenure posting a 1.43 WHIP and 6.00 ERA in 30 innings pitched. Especially after the worst outing of his career against Kansas City two weeks ago, Twins Twitter seemed ready to move on from the oft-injured veteran which I think was a little misguided. You see, in the four starts prior to facing the Royals, Shoemaker had a “good” start, “poor” start, “awful” start, and an “above average” start using FanGraphs Game Score Version 2 metric. Keeping in mind that Shoemaker was brought in as a low-risk/high-reward option who had pitched 88 1/3 innings over the last three seasons, I don’t know what more Twins fans would expect specifically this early in the season. In 2019, it took a superior pitcher in Michael Pineda two full months to really get back to full strength after an extended absence because of Tommy John surgery so why wouldn’t we give Shoemaker similar grace? Okay, I know the answer to that. Entering that atrocious outing, the Twins had just finished the first month of their season with a 9-15 record ... the inverse of what most would have expected. Many fans, myself included, figured a turn of the calendar would be a good opportunity to turn the tide of the season and get back on track. Then eight earned runs (nine total) in 3 1/3 innings pitched happened, and we realized it wasn’t going to be as easy to figuratively “turn the page” from the first month of the season. So, naturally, recency bias sets in and all of a sudden Twins twitter is narrowed in on the number five starter, with a respectable career ERA of 3.91 (for reference Berríos’ is 4.15), as the primary target for a pink slip in his locker to start cleaning things up. Yet, for me and setting aside one lonesome start, Shoemaker has mostly met expectations, and furthermore here’s the other issue I had then and still have: Who is going to replace him and automatically be better? Simply put, nobody. Moreover, the Twins fifth spot in the rotation is pretty far down the list of things I would attribute their 12-23 record to. All that said, Shoemaker could be a valuable asset moving forward whether it’s as a starter helping a team climb back into the playoff race or as a trade chip on one of the most disappointing Twins teams ever. Although it hasn’t been “the rest of the month”, he’s now had two starts since May 1st and has given the Twins mixed results, although his box score against Oakland is a little misleading. Albeit we’re talking about the Tigers, he looked effective although inefficient in his start following the Royals and was taken out after just 86 pitches, which made sense given that the 3-4-5 hitters were due up for the Tigers. On Friday, facing one of the best homerun hitting teams in the league, he made three mistakes and the A’s made him pay, scoring all five runs off the long ball. Regardless, he gave the Twins six innings for the second time this year which is one more time than Maeda and only one less than Berríos. You see what I’m setting up here? If you were disappointed in Shoemakers season as a whole, I think your disappointment needs to be redirected elsewhere. If I hadn’t made it clear yet, to this point Shoemaker has met the admittedly low bar I set for him when he signed with the club. I truly believe that if he can continue giving us competitive starts, one way or another, he could become a valuable asset come the end of July. What are your early thoughts on Shoemaker? Are you ready to move on? If so, who takes his spot? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Twins catching prospect, Ben Rortvedt, made his Major League debut on Friday, April 30 against the Kansas City Royals going 1-for-3 with a single, RBI, walk, and strikeout. Let’s take a look back at his rise to the Majors in his prospect retrospective.Prep Career The Wisconsin native (ugh ) was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the second round of the 2016 Major League Draft as the 56th overall selection out of Verona Area High School. The left handed hitting catcher had already signed a letter of intent to play for the University of Arkansas but, according to an article published in The Verona Press, Rortvedt told a Twins scout that he “wanted to play for the [club]” and was selected three picks later. The most recent Prep Baseball Report prior to being drafted had him as the 22nd prospect in the PBR Draft 100 and went to to say that his “offense separates himself from the rest of the catchers in the draft ... projects as a middle of the order hitter with power to all fields”, and defensively he “possessed plus arm strength” and an “agile” blocker. Professional Career The catcher spent four seasons in the minors spanning five different levels, as well as being invited to play in the Arizona Fall League in 2019. Although he was scouted as a plus hitter with power in his prep days, Rortvedt slashed just .240/.315/.345 with 16 home runs in 1,001 at-bats over 291 games played. In fact, it wasn’t until MLB.com released its 2019 Top 30 Prospect Rankings for the Twins where he was identified as being known more for his defense than his bat as he posted elite caught stealing rates throughout his Minor League career. Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press broke the news first with a flurry of transactions earlier in the day: Twins other top catching prospect, Ryan Jeffers, has had a slow start to the season which opened the door for Rortvedt to make his debut. I would expect Mitch Garver to start getting roughly two-thirds of the playing time while Rortvedt serves as his defensive minded backup. Twins Daily Coverage READ: Kernels Ben Rortvedt is Catching On by Seth Stohs from May 2017 Seth talks with Rortvedt and provides a deeper dive into his background as a catching prospect growing up in Wisconsin. READ: Looking Back: Twins Take Four Prep Hitters Atop 2016 Draft by Seth Stohs from August 2018 Being closer to the action than the National guys, Seth might have been one of the first writers to realize that Rortvedt was getting more recognition for his defense than his bat. WATCH: by Tom FroemmingREAD: Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects: 16-20 by Tom Froemming Rortvedt appeared on many prospect lists and minor league reports throughout his four years in the organization and in the most recent installment he was ranked as the Twins 17th rated prospect after not being ranked in 2020. As Major League Baseball is an offensive minded league, Rortvedt will need to improve his bat to become an everyday catcher for the Minnesota Twins. This is going to be a tall order with both Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers having already displayed their ability to hit at this level despite their struggles to start the 2021 season. Regardless, he can definitely stick with the Club has a back up catcher with plus defense. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins exploded in the third inning and tacked on more in the sixth to take the three-game set against the division leading Royals. Check out today’s game recap for a dive into the days events.Box Score Berríos: 6.0 IP,6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 9 K Home Runs: Simmons (1), Garver (5), Kirlloff (4) Top 3 WPA: Simmons .195, Berríos .132, Arraez .097 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart (1).png Berríos Struggles through Six I’m being tough on Berríos but considering the expectations we have for him and having a seven-run cushion in the third inning, I’d call today a disappointment. Berríos was cruising through three, as he had set down five consecutive Royals with strikeouts and needed only 34 pitches (80% strike percentage) to do so. Then came the extended delay thanks to an offensive explosion by the Twins and Berríos was not able to regain the efficiency and rhythm he had. Twins Daily’s own John Bonnes and Nick Nelson hit the nail on the head with their comments regarding the 26-year old rightie and, in my opinion, this is what keeps his ceiling below that of an “ace” or even a true #1 starter on a team that’s supposed to be contending for a World Series. Specifically in innings four and five, where he gave up four earned runs, he was consistently getting behind hitters and running two and three ball counts by throwing strikes at just a 56% clip. Twins Offense Takes Advantage of Royals Miscues Good things happen when you hit the ball hard and the Twins did PLENTY of that today owning 10 of the top 12 hardest hit balls on the day. On top of Hunter Dozier’s back-to-back errors in the third inning, the Twins had multiple line drives to the outfield that are not technically errors but were misjudged and landed for extra bases. Even on Dozier’s first error, Josh Donaldson’s exit velocity was 96.7 mph on the batted ball which made it very difficult to handle despite being hit right at the third basemen. Arguably the best development of the day (and weekend), is that Mitch Garver is starting to “heat up” as Twins Daily’s own Andrew Gebo put it. On top of hitting his 5th home run of the season today, he had exit velocities of 97.3, 107.2, and 108.5 today going 2-for-4. Okay maybe this is the best development of the weekend ... KIRILLOFF HAS ARRIVED. The rookie smashed another no-doubt home run in the bottom of the 8th inning. He ended the weekend with four home runs and nine RBI’s. Twins Win their First Series Since April 5-7 in Detroit It’s been a rough month for the Twins, especially considering the World Series expectations that the organization, fans, local, and national media had for the club when the season started. Despite getting rocked on Saturday, it’s encouraging to see the offense start to click with 84% of the season still ahead of them. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet) Click here to view the article

It’s been a frustrating start to the season for the Twins and their fans who are expecting their team to contend for a World Series. Consider this article and comment section a judge-free zone where you can respectfully share some of your reactions, no matter how unpopular they might be.Before we dive into some reactions, I think we need to realize and understand that all fanbases really react and behave in the same manner. If you don’t believe me, Twins Daily’s own Tom Froemming did the homework for me earlier this week. The phrase “winning cures everything” not only can apply to team chemistry and culture, but also to the mood and energy of the fanbase. When you’re winning while not following the traditional and figurative “book”, less people question your methods because “it’s working” but ALLLLLLLL of that changes if you’re not winning. When you search #MNTwins twitter right now, the hot topic issues are mostly surrounding Rocco Baldelli, Willians Astudillo, Randy Dobnak, the Twins bullpen, and to a lesser extent José Berríos. Those are the topics I will breach and encourage you to add your own opinions and reactions to the first two weeks. It’s therapy through writing, people!! Rocco Baldelli is the best Manager for the Twins and this Front Office There is nobody more under fire than Rocco Baldelli right now, especially when it comes to the usage of his pitchers. Although some of it is justified, I believe that Rocco Baldelli is the one of the best Managers in baseball and is the best Manager for the Twins, as he has bought into two ideas: Analytics“Trusting the process”Like it or not, and I know many of you don’t like it, analytics and sabermetrics consume the modern baseball world and influence every decision that is made. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine believe in underlying analytics and have invested in them by hiring Baldelli and expanding the Twins Research and Development Department. If analytics isn’t your thing, then I guess that’s fine, but the Twins front office has put together a team that aligns with their vision and that is important for “the process”. We hear the phrase all of the time ... ”trust the process”, and even as frustrating as it is at times, Baldelli trusts and has bought into “the process”. A good friend of mine (@West_Coast_Jack on twitter for all your elite Gopher analytic needs) said it well, “Rocco literally does not care at all about winning any specific game because [he] only manages for [the] long term”. He’s going to be extra cautious with players who have a checkered injury past by sitting them even if they just returned from the DL and only played in one game. He’s going to limit his pitchers early in the year to 80-90 pitches even if they're cruising, because less usage early on theoretically keeps their arms healthy and strong come playoff time. It might cost us wins in April and May, which I would argue are just as important as wins in August and September, but looking at the bigger picture it’s more important that the players are healthy at the end of the season. Rocco is trusting that process and so should we. Speaking of Big Picture, Willians Astudillo Isn’t a Part of It Astudillo is a “clubhouse guy.” Astudillo brings energy. Astudillo brings entertainment. **Whispers** Astudillo doesn’t bring much more than that. And when you’re on an 18-game playoff losing streak that should matter more than his previously mentioned attributes. You can miss me with the “he doesn’t strike out” or “he’s batting .304 this year and .295 for his career” statistics. I feel like I’m cheating off Tom’s homework here but he can’t put it any better than I would have so I’d like to give him credit: “La Tortuga has actually been productive so far, but this is not sustainable” is the story of his big league career to this point. His positional versatility is a plus, although he’s not really “great” at any position, so his role should really be the last guy off the bench making a spot start once, maybe twice a week. He isn’t an everyday player or a long term solution at any position, and he absolutely shouldn’t be relied on in a high leverage role as a hitter. Randy Dobnak is a Low Leverage Reliever or Spot Starter It seems like we pick and choose when spring statistics matter, and I’m as guilty as everyone else! For example, although there was some concern with Kepler’s spring, the overwhelming thought was “eh, it’s spring training” he’ll be fine. On the other hand, Dobnak dominated the spring and his new slider was the talk of the town with many saying he’s turning into a frontline starter. It’s too early to definitively say that Dobnak can’t be a reliever, although his performances in three appearances this season are dramatically different from the five spring appearances. I’ve never trusted Dobnak’s success in the bigs and wrote about that two weeks before he was sent to the alternate site last year, and although it was encouraging, I was definitely a “let’s wait and see what happens” regarding his performance when games didn’t count. Dobnak’s story is undoubtedly a great one, although I imagine most minor leaguers work part-time jobs given their pathetic “salaries”, but I go back to the 18-game playoff losing streak. Inspiring story is great but I want the best players in the best positions. Dobnak can contribute at the Major League level, but until he proves otherwise he needs to stay in low leverage situations and I can’t trust him as a season long starter. The Twins Bullpen Will Be FINE! R.E.L.A.X The Twins don’t have the top end arm in their bullpen like maybe the White Sox, Yankees, or Dodgers, but I think the depth of the bullpen is its strength despite the shaky start. Not many teams have the option to roll out four different pitchers (Alex Colomé, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Hansel Robles) who have all had success in high-leverage roles throughout their careers. That doesn’t include Caleb Thielbar and Cody Stashak who have been effective out of the bullpen this year too. I believe the Law of Averages will balance out and the bullpen will end the season as one of the best in Majors. José Berríos is Our Third Best Starter This isn’t necessarily a reaction to the first two weeks of the season, as I’ve thought this for two years when Pineda had recovered from Tommy John and is a statistically accurate statement since June 1, 2019. That said, Berríos start to the season is a perfect snapshot into why I think this. From one start to another, Berríos undoubtedly has the higher ceiling as he can have an outing like he did in the second game of the season, but he’s equally if not more likely to have outings like the two he’s had since. He’s far too inefficient and inconsistent for me to slot him ahead of Pineda as the Twins second best starter. In fact, Twins Daily’s own Matthew Taylor shared this stat after his most recent start against the Red Sox: I'm not saying the gap is large, but I’ll take the consistency and higher floor of Pineda as my number two over the higher ceiling but inconsistency of Berríos when I need a win. What are your reactions through the first two weeks of the season? Are you worried or still feeling it out this early in the year? Add your thoughts in the comment section! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Alexander Colomé entered the ninth inning Sunday tasked with protecting a one-run lead. It did not go well. A pair of singles followed by a Kyle Seager home run, the first Colomé has surrendered since 2019, gave Seattle a series-clinching win.Box Score Shoemaker: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Buxton (5) Bottom 3 WPA: Colomé -.748, Cave -.078, Kepler -.052 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart.png Arraez and Buxton Continue Torrid Starts The Twins were aggressive early with Mariners’ starter Chris Flexen as he threw only 11 pitches in the first inning, but faced six Twins batters, allowing three hard hit singles, and a line drive sacrifice fly” to Nelson Cruz. Flexen responded by leaning on his off speed more, but the Twins offense continued to hit. They added three additional runs in the third, and then Byron Buxton hit a two-run, 428-foot shot to center field that, based on his body language, he seemed to think was going to stay in the park in the bottom of the fifth. The home run was his fifth of the season and his second extra-base hit of the day. The Twins only other threat of the day came in the bottom of the seventh inning where they had Miguel Sanó and Max Kepler on 1st and 2nd base, respectively, with two outs but a Jake Cave ground out ended the inning. Matt Shoemaker Cruises Through Five Innings Right out of the gates, Shoemaker struggled to find the zone hitting the second batter of the game and issuing a five-pitch walk to the third batter, Kyle Seager. He escaped that jam and proceeded to throw strikes at a 67% clip, striking out five Mariners, and allowing no runs between innings two and five. Then came the sixth, where he started hanging breaking balls and the middle of the Mariners lineup was banging breaking balls. It started with a solo shot from Seager, then a José Marmolejos double that was just a few feet from being gone, and then Taylor Trammell made it a 6-4 game with a three-run bomb of his own. Regardless, Shoemaker was likely done for the day as he was nearing 100 pitches anyway but home plate umpire Manny Gonzalez made sure of it by ejecting Shoemaker for saying “freaking”... I guess. Alex Colomé Implodes ... Again Stashak relieved Shoemaker, and despite struggling with command, was able to shut down Mariners in the sixth and was pulled after hitting France to start the seventh. He was followed by Caleb Thielbar, who allowed one-run on a fielder's choice, and Hansel Robles who pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning. Twins fans were ... uhhh … ”treated” to the Alex Colomé Experience in the ninth where he allowed back-to-back singles to the first two batters and then a three-run blast to Seager, which was his second of the day. Colomé did record an out on a deep fly ball, but then allowed another single before being pulled in favor of Jorge Alcala making his third appearance of the spring who closed out the inning unscathed. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: pen.png Click here to view the article

New leadoff man Luis Arráez provided a spark that helped the Twins tally eight runs against the Brewers Sunday afternoon. Arráez was 3-for-3 with a pair of walks. Come read all about the game in today’s recap.Box Score Pineda: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K Home Runs: Garver (1), Sanó (1) Top 3 WPA: Pineda .193, Arráez .166, Garver .160 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart.png Buxton Leaves Game Unexpectedly in the Third Twins Daily own, Tom Froemming, speculated that it could possibly be a migraine being that nothing seemed to physically happen in the field. I don’t know that a “non-COVID illness” eliminates the potential for a migraine, but Dan Hayes of The Athletic later added “... this isn’t serious, just unpleasant”. I would guess that with Buxton’s history of concussions a migraine might be considered more serious, so hopefully this just means Buxton is dealing with flu-like symptoms rather than anything that could linger for more than a few days. Starting Pitchers Duel Early It may not have been both starters pitching six no-hit innings like it was on Saturday night, but Adrian Houser and Michael Pineda were both efficient and effective through the first four innings of the game. Combined the righties allowed just five hits and two walks while striking out a combined five batters. Each pitcher allowed an early run as the Twins scored in the top of the first on a Kepler RBI groundout and the Brewers took advantage of a Polanco fielding error. Houser gave up an opposite field homerun to Mitch Garver, his first on the year, in the top of the fifth before being pulled for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the fifth. For the Twins, Pineda also only lasted five innings despite just being at 81 pitches, but this was partially due to a 31-pitch fifth inning and the Twins offense scoring four runs in the top half of the sixth. When his day was done, Pineda allowed six baserunners and zero earned runs while striking out five, and Twins Daily own Matthew Taylor encapsulated his start perfectly. Twins Offense Leaves 21 Runners on Base The Twins leave Milwaukee 2-1, scoring 15 runs, and combining for 37 walks and hits throughout the series so it’s hard to complain. That said, the Twins also combined to leave 47 runners on base throughout the series, including 23 on Thursday afternoon. This isn’t a trend I would expect to continue as the Twins have the third best batting average with runners on base in the league since the start of the 2019 season but something to keep an eye on early on in the season. Twins Bullpen Lights Out Again Stashak allowed a solo homerun to Jackie Bradley Jr to start the sixth inning and appeared to be having troubles with his landing spot on the mound. After walking the next batter he made an adjustment and that represented the only real opportunity the Brewers had to give Houser a no-decision for his efforts. The bullpen finished their day retiring the last 11 Brewers batters. With the exception of one inning on Thursday afternoon the Twins bullpen was very good this series allowing just 3+2+?? Walks and hits combined over 11 2/3 innings pitched in the series. Dick Brehmer of Bally Sports North noted that the Twins bullpen had seven 1-2-3 innings in the series, and ended with a total of eight after Alcala locked down the ninth inning. More importantly, Alex Colomé bounced back with a save on Saturday after that disastrous inning on Opening Day, although Tyler Duffey carried his spring into the start of the season allowing four baserunners during his two outings totaling 1 1/3 innings. Postgame with Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Screenshot 2021-04-04 at 4.43.31 PM.png Click here to view the article

Despite a rough start on Opening Day, the Twins are considered one of the top teams in baseball with some even predicting them to represent the American League in the World Series. It’s a long way until we’re there so let's take a look at the road to October.I’m a math teacher who loves baseball, and although the games aren’t played on paper I always like to dive into the schedule to see the lay of the land for the Twins season. I’ve taken the Las Vegas total win over/under for each of the Twins opponents and converted it into a winning percentage. I then used that data to analyze many different splits throughout the season. This is my third year doing such an activity, although last year's exercises ended up being pretty meaningless, and like I’ve done in the past I’ll give a quick synopsis of how each month looks. April (11 home, 15 away, 4 off) Although they will spend half the month on the road, from a project opponent win percentage perspective the Twins should end up looking pretty by the end of April. Their projected opponent win percentage is 47.46% and have 10 games against the Tigers, Mariners, Pirates, and Royals who are all projected for less than 74 wins on the year. Heck, outside of the opening series against the Brewers, the other 13 games are against teams who are expected to hover around .500 for the year. Although it’s only April, it will be important the Twins end the month above .500 as the White Sox have an even easier start to the season, based on projections. May (18 home, 10 away, 3 off) The Twins are fortunate their busiest month of the year is also the month they will spend the most time at home AND has the lowest projected winning percentage. Again, it will still be considered early but it will be vitally important that the Twins beat up on Royals (5 gms), Rangers (4 gms), Tigers (3 gms), and Orioles (4 gms) at the beginning and end of the month. The middle of the month will feature their first tough stretch of the year with nine consecutive games against the Athletics and White Sox. Similarly the White Sox start and end May against weaker teams, but they have their own tough stretch in the middle with games against the Twins (6 gms), Yankees (3 gms), and Cardinals (3 gms). This is a really good opportunity for the Twins to put get an early lead on the division over the White Sox, especially facing them six times in the month. June (12 home, 15 away, 3 off) As the weather starts to warm up so does the Twins schedule who will face the Yankees (3 gms), Astros (3 gms), and White Sox (3 gms) who are all teams favored to win their respective divisions. This is where we will get our first real glimpse of how we stack up against teams that we could end up facing in the playoffs, although we are fortunate to be the home team for six out of those nine games. Outside of that we’ll have the opportunity to beat up on the Orioles (2 gms), Royals (4 gms), Rangers (3 gms) and Mariners (3 gms) again while seeing the Reds for the first time. The White Sox will also have their hands full with games against the Blue Jays, Rays, Astros, and Twins. July (14 home, 12 away, 5 off) and August (13 home, 14 away, 4 off) You’ll see why I grouped these two months together. The Twins will enter the All-Star Break with a projected opponent winning percentage of 47.97% which would be the equivalent of a record of about 48-44 record. Compare that to after the All-Star break where the Twins projected opponent win percentage is 50.65%. After the All-Star break, the Twins will face the toughest stretch of their schedule aside from six games against the Tigers. This stretch will take us through the end of August where the Twins will have a thirty game stretch of facing teams who are projected to finish the season above .500. This includes finishing their season series with six games against the White Sox, three games at Busch Stadium, three games at Yankee Stadium, and hosting the Rays and Brewers for three games apiece. It also includes the longest road trip and homestand off the season, which are nine games apiece back-to-back. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-04-02 at 10.23.34 PM.png The timing of this stretch of games will be interesting as the Twins should have an even better idea of how they stack up against the best teams in baseball as the trade deadline comes and goes, although their schedule for the two months after the deadline is tougher than any other two month stretch they face. The White Sox schedule for these two months isn’t quite as tough as the Twins which is why it will be important for the Twins to build an early division lead. Let's hope the Twins get some rest over the break, are healthy, and can finish around .500 during July and August. September/October (13 home, 15 away, 5 off) After a grueling stretch the Twins won’t get much of a reprieve with games against the Rays (3) and Blue Jays (6), but they also get to face the Royals and Tigers a combined nine times including the last six games of the season. Remember, rosters no longer expand on september 1st so even games against the Indians (6) and Cubs (3), which may typically feature multiple prospects getting their first cup of coffee in the bigs, aren’t going to be quite so simple. Meanwhile, the White Sox toughest competition will be three games apiece against the A’s and Angels in the middle of the month. At this point, Twins fans may decide to look back to April and May to see the importance of those early season games as the season comes to an end. I didn’t do a deep dive on the White Sox schedule like I did with the Twins, but just at a quick glance their schedule is a little easier in the sense that their tough games are more spread out throughout the season. Of course, teams from the same division play the same schedule but that thirty game stretch between July and August is going to be brutal for the Twins. Keep that in mind as we try and minimize the importance of games in April and May! If you want to have a little fun with the data yourself, here is a link to the spreadsheet I created. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Last week, we previewed the position players from the White Sox and Twins, who are realistically the only two teams competing for the division this year. The Twins “won” the position player battle 7-3, but how do they match up on the mound? Read on to find out.The White Sox made a bigger offseason splash by signing the best reliever on the market while the Twins brought in former White Sox closer Alex Colomé and Angels closer Hansel Robles. Especially for the White Sox the signing of Liam Hendriks was a curious move as their bullpen was already one of their strengths and they really like the depth elsewhere, while Colomé and Robles will provide the Twins with some depth and flexibility at the back end of their bullpen. The Twins signed J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker who will improve the rotation from 2020 while the White Sox have some top prospects waiting for their shot. Let’s take a more in depth look at each team’s pitching staff. No. 1 Starter: Kenta Maeda versus Lucas Giolito Maeda really flourished in his first full year as a starter finishing second in AL Cy Young voting and now being named the 2021 Opening Day Starter. The projection models (Steamer, ZiPS and PECOTA) disagree on whether this performance is repeatable and although a little regression is likely, his Savant profile would suggest that his 2020 season might not be an outlier. I think the difference between a division title and a wild card team could be determined by how closely Maeda is to his 2020 self. Giolito, who will turn just 27 midseason, is quietly coming off of back-to-back seasons where he finished in the top-seven of Cy Young voting. After posting the worst ERA by a qualified pitcher in Major League history in 2018, he has now established himself as an “ace” for the White Sox. He utilizes a fastball/changeup combo while mixing in a slider to post elite strikeout numbers and solid contact rates. His projection models vary from a 3.00 ERA to a 4.05 where they vary in trusting him to keep the ball in the park, but irregardless I think we’ll see another “ace” season from the White Sox righty. Verdict: I give the edge to Giolito, who has improved in each of the last two seasons, but not by much. No. 2 Starter: Jose Berrios versus Lance Lynn Can Berríos be an “ace”? The question that has plagued Twins fans for the better part of four seasons now, and was already covered on Twins Daily after two strong Spring Training starts. In my opinion, this spring is a perfect snapshot of why I think he will never be an “ace” or even a number one on a World Series contender. 1st two starts: 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 KLast two starts: 8.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 4BB, 7 KHis inconsistency is what brings him down. To be fair, his third start in particular was dreadful but even against the Braves on Monday he allowed five baserunners in four plus innings of work and needed 82 pitches to get 14 outs. From start to start, he has the ceiling of an “ace” and the floor of a back end starter which is why I’ve long believed that he ultimately is a middle of the rotation starter. His projection models have his ERA in the high-3’s/low-4’s which is exactly where he’s been since 2017. I think we all thought that Lynn was cooked after throwing 102 1/3 innings for the Twins in 2018 posting a 5.10 ERA and walking 5.45 batters per nine. Since then he’s posted a 3.66 ERA (3.23 FIP) and only walked 2.5 batters per nine and finished fifth and sixth in 2019 and 2020 Cy Young voting, respectively. Aside from needing Tommy John surgery and missing the 2016 season, Lynn has been one of the more durable pitchers but like Berríos, struggles with consistency. In fact, Lynn and Berríos are projected to have nearly the same season in 2020. Verdict: At this point, Lynn is what he is, whereas Berríos is only 26 and still has some upside so I give him the slight edge to outperform Lynn in 2021. No. 3 Starter: Michael Pineda versus Dallas Keuchel Despite his struggles this Spring, I generally trust Pineda more than Berrios and would label him as the number two starter but I know the Twins (and most fans) don’t necessarily feel that way. After missing 2018, getting suspended at the end of 2019 and missing the start of 2020, Pineda finally started 2021 with a “normal” offseason and spring training. Ultimately, we will see some regression from 2020 as Pineda did not allow a home run over the 26 2/3 innings pitched, and none of the projection models view him favorably in 2021 with his best ERA at 4.42 which would be the second worst of his career. Pineda has always been susceptible to the long ball, although some of that is inflated by Yankee Stadium, but based on his Savant profile I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms his projections in 2021. Remember when Keuchel won a Cy Young Award? Wild. He actually had a very good 2020 season earning an MVP vote along with fifth in Cy Young voting. Very similarly to Pineda, he kept the ball in the park at an unsustainable rate which is going to lead to some regression but still posted a 3.08 FIP which was the second best of his career behind his 2017 Cy Young season. Again like Pineda, the projection models do not view him in an overly positive light with an ERA and FIP above 4.00 and his Savant profile would tend to agree that Verdict: I’ll easily take Pineda over Keuchel. No. 4 Starter: J.A. Happ versus Dylan Cease Happ wasn’t a splash or overly popular signing for fans, but as the Twins number four option he provides an upperhand versus most other teams. He’s coming off of a tough couple years with the Yankees as a flyball pitcher in Yankee stadium, but has otherwise been pretty solid and very durable for almost a decade. He’s not a power pitcher but he’s good at generating weak contact, and will be plenty valuable as a back end starter. That’s what you’re going to have to keep in mind in 2021, his numbers won’t pop but they’ll play as our number four starter. Cease is a former top prospect who is still only 25 years old with just 131 1/3 Major League innings under his belt. He may be their number four now, but his Minor League numbers and scouting report would suggest he could be a #1 or #2 starter. He’s had rough start in his short career really struggling with walks and home runs and the projection models don’t see that improving in 2021. It’s always hard to project when or even if a prospect will produce in the bigs, but if Cease can clean things up he’ll be very good. Verdict: Cease has the higher ceiling but Happ has the higher floor which I’ll take in 2021. Happ over Cease. No. 5 Starter: Matt Shoemaker versus Carlos Rodón See how I started Happ’s paragraph and pretend like I was talking about Shoemaker. Unlike Happ, his biggest question mark is going to be his durability as he’s only thrown 166 innings over the last four seasons combined. That said, if he can stay healthy, those last 166 innings have a solid 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 4.14 FIP which would be phenomenal for a number five. I don’t know how much stock to really put into his projections with so little data over the last five seasons, but they have him with an ERA and FIP in the high 4’s. If he does get hurt, the Twins have the flexibility of plugging in Lewis Thorpe or Randy Dobnak who are having nice spring seasons. I really don’t know why the White Sox aren’t giving Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet a shot here. Sure, they’re young but at this point we kind of know that Rodón tops out as a #3 starter at best, whereas the two mentioned before him are projected to be frontline starters. I’d get it more if he was already under contract but they re-signed him in January, he’s coming off of five consecutive seasons with some sort of army injury, and have already relegated the other two to the bullpen. All of that said, like Shoemaker, when he’s healthy he’s put up numbers that would be very solid for a fifth option. To make for an easier comparison to Shoemaker, over the last four years Rodón has thrown 232 1/3 innings posting a 8.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and a 4.67 FIP. Verdict: Shoemaker over Rodón, and more generally like the Twins options at number five over the White Sox. Bullpen: Minnesota Twins versus Chicago White Sox The front of a team’s bullpen can be very fluid as players get hurt, struggle with performance, and spot starters are needed. With that said, the back end of the rotation is typically more solid and both the Twins and White Sox have some strong players. Where the Twins lack the top end talent of someone like Hendriks, they make up for it with the experience and production of Taylor Rogers, Colomé, Robles, and Tyler Duffey who all have experienced success in high leverage situations. Moreover, having that many options allows you to not assign a formal role and put your pitchers in the best spots where they can be successful. For example, Rogers in 2020 didn’t impress anyone but he also faced more righties than you’d like him to based on his career splits. I also like having Thielbar (if he’s healthy) and the upside of Alcala to help bridge the gap between starters and the four aforementioned names on this list. On top of Hendriks, Crochet, and Kopech who we already know are elite arms out of the bullpen, the White Sox will hope that Aaron Bummer can stay healthy and Evan Marshall continues his so far successful career as a reliever. If everything comes together the White Sox bullpen will be very, very dangerous and teams will have to get and hold a lead in the first half of the ball game to win. The concern for them will be if they have an injury and need to start relying on their depth to fill in the holes. As with their position players, they don’t have a ton of solid depth in the bullpen. Verdict: Although the Twins will be very good, the White Sox should better and possibly have the best bullpen in baseball. Conclusion: Minnesota Twins Pitching Staff versus Chicago White Sox Pitching Staff Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-03-25 at 1.47.55 PM.png In general, the White Sox pitching staff have more top end talent and more upside than the Twins pitching staff but I would argue that the Twins have a safer floor. If everything goes right for the White Sox then they will easily take this matchup between pitching staffs, but over a 162 game stretch I would put my money on who can sustain through adversity and I believe the Twins are in the better spot to do that specifically with their starting rotation. Roster: Minnesota Twins versus Chicago White Sox Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-03-25 at 1.48.04 PM.png Verdict: From a (very scientific) purely ✔ mark perspective, the Twins have the clear advantage when we break it down position by position. That said, the gap between many of the positions isn’t that wide on either side. As I’ve stated in both articles, I generally favor the Twins because they have more depth and stability than the White Sox. That said, the race for the division will be close and if some of the White Sox young players can blossom in 2021 then I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take the division either. The division will likely come down to who wins the head-to-head battle between the two teams over the 19-game season series. Either way, I would expect both teams to make the playoffs, even under the pre-COVID format, and maybe they’ll face off in the ALCS?!? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins offense continued sputtering today against the Pirates and Alex Kirilloff optioned, making it a tough day for the Twins on social media platforms. That and more in today’s notebook!Pittsburgh 1, Twins 0 Box Score Twins Takeaways: Standout pitcher: Derek Law (1 IP, 2 K, 11 pitches) Standout hitter: Luis Arraéz (1-for-3) Lineup: Highlights: The Twins pitching staff was top notch today allowing just one earned run over nine innings through a solo shot off the bat of Adam Frazier off of Josh Winder. Griffin Jax got the start allowing five baserunners over 3 innings and getting hit hard despite not allowing anyone to cross the plate. Derek Law (2 K), Luke Farrell (1 H, 2 K), Winder, Matt Canterino (2 BB), and Charlie Barnes (2 K) followed Jax with one inning apiece. On the offensive side of the ball, the Twins were only able to muster up three hits getting one hit each from Luis Arraéz, Willians Astudillo, and Andrew Romine. Although we tend not to put a lot of stock in spring training stats, it would feel a little better to see the Twins offense hit. The Twins rank 29th or 30 in nearly every offensive category as a team as we are less than two weeks from the start of the regular season. Other Hippenin’ and Happenin’s Alex Kirilloff was sent down after slashing .129/.182/.258 in 31 at-bats BOY did this cause quite the stir within Twins social media communities. To me it’s simple ... the Twins were not going to use service time as an obvious reason to keep Kirilloff in the minors, BUT if he gave them any reason outside of that I would bet they would take advantage. With nearly any other player, posting those numbers would have the same results and nobody would think anything of it but understandably things are different when you’re the top prospect in the organization. When you let your longest tenured Twin and fan favorite left fielder walk (**whispers** Eddie Rosario is slashing .139/.179/.139 meaning he has ZERO extra base hits **ducks**), you better do it because your top prospect is ready to take over. Optically, it’s not a great look but with Brent Rooker and Kyle Garlick having good springs, it allowed the Twins the flexibility to send Kirilloff to the alternate training site for some extra seasoning. Get a Randy Dobnak shirt while supporting a good cause MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

A couple weeks ago, Twins Daily writers collaborated to bring you a breakdown of each position group in the AL Central for 2021. In reality, only the Twins and White Sox will battle for the AL Central crown so let's take a closer look at how these teams match up.If you based your division winners solely on hype, the White Sox would win the division in a landslide. Not only do they have the reigning MVP at first base, one of the most charismatic players in the game at short, and an up and coming superstar in Luis Robert, but they bolstered their very good bullpen by adding the best reliever in baseball. This has led to them being ranked ahead of the Twins in various power rankings and Vegas making them the odds-on favorite to win the division. On the other hand, the Twins had a nice little offseason themselves adding one of the best defensive shortstops in the history of the game and solidifying the back end of their bullpen by adding Hansel Robles and Alex Colomé. They maybe don’t have the “swag” or big ticket free agent that the White Sox have, but it seems the back-to-back division champions are being overlooked by just about everyone outside of Twins fans themselves. This got me to wondering ... is the hype legit? Let’s take a position by position look at both the White Sox and Twins to see who comes out on top. Catcher: Mitch Garver versus Yasmani Grandal After bursting onto the scene in 2019, Garver really struggled in 2020 which could be due to an intercostal strain that forced him to miss nearly half the shortened season. I would bet a lot of money that he will be better in 2021 and I would bet the same amount of money that he will not hit as well as he did in 2019. Regardless, he’ll still be one of the best hitting catchers in the game as projections have him providing and above average OPS, while also providing solid defense behind the plate. For years now, Grandal has arguably been the best two-way catcher in the game. He consistently ranks as one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, per Baseball Prospectus, and has a career OPS of nearly .800. On top of that, he’s been one of the most durable catchers in the game typically sitting out less than 40 games a season. Despite entering his age-32 season, all of the projection models have him maintaining his durability and level of play in 2021 which will make him a hard out in the middle of a stacked White Sox lineup. The addition of Jonathon LuCroy should allow him to be spelled from behind the plate a little more while still getting at-bats as a designated hitter. Verdict: Grandal based on his consistent track record, but I do think Garver has the higher ceiling. First Base: Miguel Sanó verus José Abreu I was surprised at how serviceable Sanó looked defensively in his first year at first base and no spring training. I’ve always thought that, for his size, he was a pretty athletic and nimble third basemen and I think we’ll see him become a solid first basemen. Offensively, I’m ready to say that Sano is what he is ... a prototypical power hitter. He swings out of his shoes and hits the ball as hard as anyone else in baseball when he makes contact. He’ll go through swoons where he is nearly unplayable and then he’ll go through a stretch where he crushes everything and, at the end of the day, he’ll end up with an above average OPS but it’ll be a wild ride to get there. Abreu is coming off an MVP campaign where he posted the best slash rates of his career and finished second in all of baseball with 19 home runs. He’s always been a very good and consistent hitter, but has also been one of the worst defensive first basemen in the league. Projection models have him regressing back to his career norms in 2021 which would still make him one of the better hitters in the league where he will be an RBI machine in the three-hole. Verdict: Abreu in a landslide. Second Base: Jorge Polanco versus Nick Madrigal Polanco is another Twins who really struggled in 2020 after a monster 2019, but we eventually found out that he was hobbled by his ankle and required surgery for the second consecutive offseason. Like Garver, Polanco is better than his 2020 season but probably not quite as good as his 2019 season. Being that he was injured I’m not actually that concerned about last year as his K/BB rate was similar to his career norms but really struggled with making solid contact on the ball, and even better news ... the projection models aren’t concerned either. Madrigal had a really nice rookie campaign batting .340 and boasting a wRC+ of 112 and providing solid defense. Unfortunately, he hit for almost zero power, had an extremely low walk rate, and his savant profile would say that he should have batted almost 40 points less than he did. As big league pitchers get a scouting report on him they are going to be able to attack these weaknesses and I, along with the projection models, think he’ll need some time to adjust in 2021. He’ll still be a good hitter but he won’t be contending for a batting title. Verdict: A healthy Polanco will easily outhit Madrigal in 2021. Third Base: Josh Donaldson versus Yoán Moncada We all know what Donaldson can be but it will all come down to if he can stay on the field. At 35 years old and now a recurring calf injury there is plenty to be worried about, although the Twins have set themselves up nicely to get him regular rest and are prepared as they could be if he were to miss more time. More on that later. Like so many all around baseball, Moncada had himself the best year of his short career in 2019, but he followed that up in 2020 by dropping his OPS more than 200 points. Oddly enough his swing rates were around his career norms and he actually improved his walk rate in 2020, but he didn’t make hard contact all season. He’ll be turning just 26 in May and all of the projection models have him rebounding in 2021 but that will likely depend on if he can get back to driving the ball. Both he and Donaldson provide solid defense at their positions. Verdict: For reasons, I’ll address later I’m going to bet on the health of Donaldson and take him over Moncada. Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons versus Tim Anderson Since signing with the Twins, we have published a variety of articles on the signing of Andrelton Simmons. In short, he is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball history but will ultimately settle in the eight or nine spot of the lineup. I don’t want to make it sound like he’s an awful hitter because he’s not, his career OPS is .696 and projection models have him hitting right around there in 2021 which would be considered “below average”. Anderson is the cover athlete for RBI '21 and one of the most charismatic personalities in the game, but is all the attention warranted? He’s not great defensively, but continues to get it done at the plate despite his BABIP and batted ball data suggesting that he’s getting awfully lucky. Although the projection models predicted regression last year and were mostly wrong, they’re back at this year as most are expecting his OPS to drop more than 100 points from 2020. I would expect the same, but I think we all expected that coming into last season. Verdict: Andrelton defense edges Anderson’s bat, especially if he were to regress like he’s projected to. Left Field: Brent Rooker versus Eloy Jiménez As of right now, I would be surprised to see Kirilloff start in left field on Opening Day as he’s been struggling this Spring and despite what the Twins say I think they’ll use that as an out to save his service time. This leaves the position open to a few players, but I think Brent Rooker would be the primary left fielder. In his short stint in the majors he looked like a professional hitter in 2020 before breaking his forearm on a hit by pitch. He won’t be a great defensive outfielder but he will be serviceable and will provide some good pop in the back half of the line up. I think Jiménez is one of the most underrated young players in baseball as he’s only 24 years old and in his two years in the big leagues he has clubbed 45 home runs over 177 games. He has legitimate power while hitting for a respectable average, although is a poor defender. Like many power hitters who struggle with walks and strikeouts, he’ll end up having some tough stretches throughout the season but at the end of the year his projection models have him continuing to hit the cover off the ball. Verdict: Jiménez easily over Kirilloff/Rooker/etc as he’s already shown he can produce at the ML level. Center Field: Byron Buxton versus Luis Robert Buxton’s 2020 season at the plate was a bit of an odd one ... his 1.5-percent walk rate and 51-percent fly ball rate are concerning, but then he posted career highs in hard hit data, OPS, and home runs. He almost turned into a power hitter rather than relying on his speed as one of the fastest players in the game, but if his walk rate trend continues he will not be able to sustain any sort of success at the plate in 2021. The projection models do see some bounce back in his walk percentage but also some regression in his OPS, but still see him as an above average contributor at the plate. All of that said, when healthy, Buxton remains the league's premier center fielder and until he starts losing a step that shouldn’t change for many years. Lovingly known as “Lou Bob” in the southside of Chicago, he has the potential to be on of the most polarizing players in the game throughout his career. He’s projected to hit for power while providing some speed on the base paths and very good defense in center field. He’s almost what everyone thought Byron Buxton could be with a less speed but more pop. He struggled at the plate in 2020 posting a higher K-rate and and lower OPS than he did at any minor league level, and all the projection models see that continuing in 2021. Lou Bob is going to be a start in Chicago but at only 23-years-old it might just take a little time. Verdict: For now, Buxton because of his defense but Robert is, at least figuratively, on his heels. Right Field: Max Kepler versus Adam Eaton Kepler, entering his sixth full season as a pro, has established himself as one of the best all-around right fielders in the game. At the plate he can provide an above average bat while in the field providing some of the best defense in the league. If you’re like me, you might have felt like Kepler really struggled last year but in reality he posted an above average OPS and wRC+ although his hard hit data shows that he didn’t connect with the ball as well as he had in the past. Eaton has actually been better and more reliable than I think he gets credit for as he’s really only suffered from two lower body injuries in back-to-back years in 2017 and 2018. He did struggle at the plate last year and then missed a chunk of time with a broken finger which isn’t something that can really be re-occurring outside of freak accidents. That said, Eaton is on the downturn of his career and projected as an average hitter while providing poor defense. Verdict: Kepler and it’s not close. DH: Nelson Cruz versus ??? Obviously, Cruz will be the primary DH in 2021 but as he enters his age 41 season and is coming off a very bad last month of the season you still have to wonder if father time has struck midnight. Despite those concerns, the Twins have options in who can fill-in at DH to give Cruz some extra time off. I expect to see Donaldson, Sano, and Rooker to all get some time at DH to keep Nelson rested and healthy for the grueling 162-game season. I don’t know that even the White Sox know who their DH will be and it could very well be a rotation. As mentioned before, Grandal is getting older and may start need more breaks behind the plate. When he is catching, you might see Jonathan LuCroy as the DH or maybe they give prospects Zack Collins or Andrew Vaughn some AB’s. Like I said, I don’t know that anyone really knows at this point. Verdict: I’ll take Cruz/Donaldson/Sano/Rooker over the White Sox options. Bench: Ryan Jeffers/Luis Arraéz/Jake Cave/Willians Astudillo versus Jonathan Lucroy/Leury García/Danny Mendick/Adam Engel Here’s where I think the Twins really separate themselves from the White Sox. If the White Sox were to lose a starter they really lose a lot of productivity. Ryan Jeffers excelled last season and we’ll likely see him and Garver split time which should only keep them healthy and rested. With the addition of Simmons, the Twins now move someone who is projected to win the batting title into a fifth infielder which in turn should help keep Donaldson and Cruz healthy and rested, while not sacrificing a ton at the plate. Lastly, Jake Cave inarguably struggled in 2020 after showing some promise in 2019 but projection models have him rebounding a little bit. At some point, he might find himself out of the picture with Rooker, Kirilloff and even Trevor Larnach competing for an active roster spot. All the depth pieces for the White Sox would be significant downgrades if they were to lose a starter, and when you play 162 games in a season ... depth matters. Sure, Lucroy had a couple good seasons but that was five plus years ago. Garcia, Mendick, and Engel will be okay replacements on the defensive side of the ball but will really be weak spots when they are inserted into the batting order. Verdict: Minnesota Twins bench by a lot. Conclusion: Minnesota Twins Position Players versus Chicago White Sox Position Players Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-03-20 at 4.15.50 PM.png We’ll take a look at the pitching staff for each team next week, but I give the Twins position players the advantage over the White Sox. I think their offenses will be pretty equal but I think the Twins defense and depth are clearly better than the White Sox, which cannot be understated in a 162-game season. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins fall to the Pirates in their game on Tuesday and are now 6-8 on the Grapefruit League season. Brent Rooker and Josh Donaldson stay hot on the offensive side of the ball while José Berríos gets roughed up in four innings of work. That and more in today’s notebook.Pittsburgh 4, Twins 2 Box Score Twins Takeaways: Standout pitcher: Tyler Duffey (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2K) Standout hitter: Josh Donaldson (2-for-3, 2B) Lineup: Highlights: TYLER DUFFEY IS BACK. Okay, sorry ... but Twins fans may be able to take a deep breath after today’s outing by Duffey where he averaged 92.6 miles per hour on his fastball, which was his average in 2020, but had been averaging sub-90 this spring. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic came to twitter with even more encouraging news… We don’t have, or at least I couldn’t find, the data to see if this is his usual approach for spring training but given today’s results I don’t have a reason to believe otherwise. Duffey wasn’t the only talking point out of the bullpen today as Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, and Brandon Waddell threw one shutout inning each while only allowing a combined four baserunners and striking out three. Berríos failed to record a single clean inning today and was really hit hard by the Pirates over four innings by allowing eight hits, walking one, and only striking out one batter. Although players seem to be ramping up, as the Twins play their second nine-inning game in as many days, I still take today’s results with a grain of salt. Although it’s not encouraging, it’s spring training and at the end of the day it’s only one start. Jorge Polanco left today’s tilt early after hurting himself when diving for a ball Get a Randy Dobnak shirt while supporting a good cause. Check out this beautiful Alex Kirilloff Topps Inception Rookie Card Other News Around the League: Speedster Billy Hamilton, recently released by Cleveland, joins the Chicago White Sox camp on a minor league deal The White Sox lack depth and Hamilton would be a nice option fo the extra-inning rule from 2020. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him stick as the last guy on the bench. Old friend Kyle Gibson to get first Opening Day start of his career After six-plus seasons with the Twins, the sinker baller joined Texas in 2020 making 12 starts and sporting a 5.35 ERA (5.70 xERA) and striking out 58 batters over 67.1 innings. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

For this installment of the series, we will take a look at the top three relievers in each bullpen. The White Sox added the best reliever in baseball, but do they have the best bullpen in the division? Let’s find out.The Rundown Reliever is arguably the hardest position to predict or project, as a vast majority of elite relievers have very short life span, and even if you’re not elite your results can vary pretty drastically from year to year. The Twins are all too familiar with this as Taylor Rogers was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2019 but then really struggled in 2020. On the other hand, Tyler Duffey was very good in 2019 and had an even better 2020 season. Now that’s not to say that relievers cannot be counted on from year to year. Over the last couple of seasons the Twins have relied on sturdy veterans like Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo who have a combined 24 seasons of relief experience and have accrued 19.4 fWAR between them. With all of that said, I will be utilizing savant profiles and projection models (i.e. ZiPS and Steamer) more than previous statistics to preview and grade the top 3-4 arms in each American League Central team's bullpen. It’s not exact science but I think those resources will provide a better idea than past results. Let’s dive in. Detroit Tigers As is the new norm, Steamer projects the Tigers using a rotation at closer that might also include Joe Jiminez, although he’s never been overly effective in his career. The Tigers do have some up and coming starters, but their bullpen isn’t going to be good in 2021 and is headlined by Buck Farmer, Bryan Garcia, and Gregory Soto. Check out their 2020 savant profiles below...it ain’t pretty. Download attachment: Tigers.png Farmer’s 2020 savant profile doesn’t quite do him justice as he’s more capable of missing bats than his 10th percentile ranking would indicate, while also being more susceptible to walks. His fastball was about two miles-per-hour slower than in 2019 and he pounded the zone a bit more in 2020, which when put together may be why hitters hit him hard last season. Garcia has thrown a total of 461 pitches at the big league level which makes him dually hard to project, but one thing that is clear is that control is always an issue of his. He was successful in 2020 by allowing a lot of soft contact and ground balls, but hitters will quickly learn to make him throw strikes which could be troublesome if he’s not able to locate his pitches on the edges of the zone. Soto is Garcia except with much, much better “stuff”. He has a smaller sample size than Soto and has produced markedly different results in two years as a pro. He was downright awful in 2019 but then showed some promise in 2020 with an xERA of 3.70 and dropping his opponent xwOBA by 100 points. If he can reign in the walks, which neither ZiPS or Steamer project him to do in 2020, he could be their best reliever. Cleveland On paper you might look at the Cleveland bullpen and, aside from James Karinchak, ask ‘who’?? And although Cleveland is at the early stages of their sudden rebuild, their bullpen is actually still in decent shape. It’s not the dominant Cleveland bullpen we’ve come accustomed to over the last few years, but I think they’ll be better than they look if you go by name recognition. Download attachment: Indians.png It will be interesting to see how Karinchak’s career develops over the next few years. At only 25 years old and just 32.1 innings under his belt, his lack of control has been an issue from the time he entered the Cleveland organization in 2017. Despite this, he consistently posted beyond elite strikeout numbers and flew through the system debuting at the end of 2019. Even considering his elite whiff and contact rates, you have to wonder if hitters will start challenging him to throw strikes and how he will respond. I was somewhat surprised when I saw Maton’s Savant profile as compared to his previous statistics. In his four year career, his numbers are mostly pedestrian despite his Savant profile ranking him in the 80th and 90th percentiles nearly across the board. His projections would agree has all of them have him posting career best numbers this year. Clase missed 2020 due to a PED suspension but threw 23.1 efficient innings in 2019. The 22-year-old rookie will be a force to be reckoned with as he can consistently pump triple digits and does so while limiting walks, but not creating the strikeouts you might assume. Most of his projections have him striking out one batter inning, but you have to think the organization that has developed some elite pitchers in recent years will change that. Chicago White Sox The White Sox already had a solid bullpen in 2020 and then went and added the best reliever in the game in Liam Hendriks. Before teams get to Hendriks they will have to first get through the formidable duo of Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall along with other very capable relievers. Download attachment: White Sox.png We know Hendriks is very good, and he has been covered well by our Twins Daily crew this offseason. In lieu of restating others' work, feel free to revisit these articles… Why Did the Twins Let Liam Hendriks Go? by Cody ChristiePotential Twins Bullpen Target: Liam Hendriks by Andrew Thares...while also remembering the article I linked earlier on why I was okay with missing out in Hendriks. Bummer missed the majority of the 2020 season with left biceps soreness which is why I used his 2019 savant profile. He’s a hard throwing lefty who doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs and will need to limit walks to reach his full potential. His projections show some regression from 2019 as his expected values (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) don’t quite match his contact rates. Nonetheless, he’ll still be a solid option to bridge the gap between the starter and Marshall/Hendriks. It’s taken a while for Marshall to get here, and he’s only been “here”...read as ‘a very good reliever’....for the last 35 innings of his career outside of a hot start to the 2019 season. Although his Savant profile is impressive, most of his projections have him regressing a little bit on his 2020 numbers striking out fewer batters while walking more. Kansas City Royals The Royals bullpen is going to be a rough one this year although they do have some decent arms to close out games. They are lead by Scott Barlow, Greg Holland, and Josh Staumont but after that it gets pretty thin quick. Their prospect pool at pitcher is extremely deep and many are projected to make their debuts in 2021, so it’s possible they temporarily convert a couple of their arms to relievers. Download attachment: Royals.png Barlow has been a solid yet unspectacular reliever for the Royals over the last three seasons. He has a nice fastball, slider mix that he can locate while striking out a good amount of batters. He can be a little susceptible to the long ball for a reliever, but might be the most reliable arm they have heading into 2021 as his projects to be their best reliever. Holland had a really nice 2020 season that is supported by his Savant profile. I’m surprised to see that all of the projections model show a considerable regression in his ERA and FIP, although his 2020 groundball and home run rates weren’t totally inline with his career norms which could partially affect this. He’s lost considerable umph from his fastball over the years as he now sits low-90’s and has become more reliant on his slider. I feel like I’ve profiled Staumont already when I wrote up my blurb on Karinchak. He throws hard, generates lots of whiffs but walks way too many batters and, like Karinchak, if he can reign in the walks he would immediately become one of the best relievers in the game. I imagine an improvement in walk rates is hard to project as it requires a concentrated change in mechanics, pitch selection, and/or mindset that isn’t really possible to predict. That said, his projections have his flyball tendencies catchuping to him, allowing more homeruns, not improving his walk rate, and ultimately allowing too many baserunners and runs. Minnesota Twins I’m going to take a little bit of a different take on the Twins part of this article as we already have a lot of great resources for you to read about. In short, the Twins have the depth to put pitchers in spots that they can succeed with the additions of Alex Colomé and Hansel Robles and have significantly improved one of the best bullpens in baseball. Download attachment: Twins.png Parker Hageman provided really good insight on Colomé here and here. Although written back in August, Matthew Trueblood did an excellent job of dissecting Taylor Rogers issues in 2020 here. Cooper Carlson and JD Cameron wrote quick hitters in Robles here and here, respectively. Duffey, who was recently ranked the 9th best reliever by MLB Network, isn’t getting the love from Twins Daily-ers. In reality, it’s more likely the writers at Twins Daily were ahead of the curve on identifying him as one of baseball’s best relievers in 2019 and haven’t needed to publish articles convincing the Twins fans otherwise. The projections do show some regression, but I think it can’t be understated how the Twins will be able to put their best relievers in the best positions this year. I expect another outstanding season from the Duff. If you want to take a look at the other names you’ll see pitch in 2021, I projected the Twins bullpen here, which was after the Colomé and Robles signings, but before it was announced that Thorpe was granted a fourth option. Grade ‘Em I didn’t cover every name in every bullpen...this article was long enough! That said, feel free to check out the ZiPS and Steamer projections to see how the rest of the bullpen fares for each team! Detroit Tigers: D The Tigers bullpen doesn’t look pretty but they do have some youn arms with upside that were mentioned in this article, which is really what you need as a non-competitive team. Cleveland: C+ It’s interesting to me that Cleveland is going to have a solid bullpen heading into 2021 despite no plans of competing. I mean I understand that your entire team can’t be awful, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Maton dealt at the deadline if he’s having a good year. Chicago White Sox: A- The only thing keeping this bullpen from an A are some of the question marks I mentioned surround Marshall and Bummer. That said, even if those two were to falter the White Sox have plenty of weapons to be one of the best bullpens in baseball. Although they lack depth at just about every position, they excel in their bullpen with the likes of Jimmy Cordero, Codi Heuer, and top 100 prospect Garret Crochet at the front end. The one thing I will say is this...Colomé was very good for them over the last two seasons so although Hendriks is inarguably an upgrade, it’s not like they were relying on Fernando Rodney to close out games. Kansas City Royals: C- The top end of the Royals bullpen doesn’t look too bad with the aforementioned names, especially if Staumont can clean things up a bit. They do have some nice pieces to fill-in the gaps with Kyle Zimmer, and like I mentioned before, have enough pitching prospects that we could see them enter the mix at some point this year. Minnesota Twins: B+ I still question the front end of the Twins bullpen and, even at the back end, Hansel Robles isn’t guaranteed to bounce back to his 2019 form. Stashak has been serviceable but has only pitched 40 big league innings while everything says Alcala and Thielbar are legit but again that was only over 20 and 24 innings, respectively. I’m not counting on significant regression from the aforementioned names but that’s what kept them from grading out to an A- for me. How do you feel about the White Sox and Twins bullpens heading into the season? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article