Matthew Lenz

Because of his struggles in 2019, I'd have to imagine that he will start 2020 in the minors unless he just blows the team away in spring training. But even if that happens, where is there room for him in the line up if we have Rosario and Cron back? I think we see him up in September if he has proven that he is ready for the call.

I actually had the same thought, as well as about Berrios and Sano...I just have no basis for it so I try not to throw it into any of my articles

Ooh, that is a big one. Thanks for contributing!

He can be the "core member of the this team [and] an important part of what made the Twins what they were in 2019" and still be coming off his worst year as a pro. A reason for his struggle might be because of having a bum ankle. All of that can be true, and although it is most definitely my opinion, it is supported by fWAR. Outside of 2016, where he only played 92 games, 1.2 is the lowest fWAR of his career. I'm not saying he is trash...I am saying, in my opinion, now is not the right time for either party to sign a long term extension.

Rosario is coming off is worst year as a pro, so I don't know that the Twins (or him) will be looking for a long term deal. Also consider that they have had talks in the past and couldn't come to an agreement. Berrios is a possibility, but he has also turned down contract extensions in the past. He's also improved every year as a pro, so he may be betting on himself to continue improving and demand bigger money down the road. Buxton is a tougher case with his injury history. My guess would be he would want to wait until he has another year of 130+ games under his belt before agreeing to a long term deal as he will be worth more then. And who knows how he feels regarding not being called up for the September 2018 roster expansion. Sano is another tough case because he's not good defensively and we have hitting depth in the minors. If he can put up the numbers he did this year through a full season then he may want to see what kind of money he can get in free agency. I'm not saying all of these are never going to happen, but I would lean on them not happening this offseason.

Uf-dah! That's embarrassing. Thanks for pointing it out...we've gone ahead and removed the days of the week and just left the dates!

The Twins have a projected $70 million to spend with the goal becoming a perennial World Series contender instead of just a playoff participant. The importance of this offseason will be discussed a lot over the next few months. Here is a rundown of important offseason dates.Below you will see the list of important offseason dates and a short summary of how the date impacts the Twins. Nov. 4 - Award Finalists Announced Rocco Baldelli was announced as a finalist for the American League Manager of the Year. Nov. 5 - Qualifying Offer Deadline This year the league-wide qualifying offer was determined to be $17.8 million over one year, which is determined by taking the “mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players,” per MLB.com. On Monday the Twins extended a qualifying offer to RHP Jake Odorizzi. He’ll have 10 days to make a decision to accept or enter free agency. If he declines, the Twins could be compensated with a draft pick if he signs prior to the 2020 MLB Draft. Nov. 11 thru Nov. 14 - General Manager (GM) Meetings Among other topics, this is where trade talks can start and you could start hearing rumors about possible deals. Nov. 12 - Managers of the Year Announced Rocco will look to become the fourth Manger of the Year in franchise history. The Twins would become the first franchise to win three MoY awards in a 10 season period. Not to mention with three different managers. Nov. 14 - Qualifying Offers Accepted or Rejected Here is a list of all the qualifying offers around the league, some of which have been mentioned as free agent targets for the Twins: Jose Abreu, Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Josh Donaldson, Jake Odorizzi, Marcell Ozuna, Anthony Rendon, Will Smith, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler. Nov. 19 thru Nov. 21 - Owners Meetings Owners meet to talk about the “business” side of MLB (TV deals, rule changes, etc.). Dec. 2 - Non-tender Deadline MLB Trade Rumors is a great resource for various projections and, well, rumors. Here is their take on our arbitration eligible players: Dec. 9 thru Dec. 12 - Winter Meetings This is where trade talks can really heat up and even happen, as well as many other things. Dec. 12 - Rule 5 Draft Seth Stohs wrote a good article on the Rule 5 draft for the Twins. Jan. 10 - Arbitration Figures Exchanged Jan. 24 thru Jan. 25 - Twins Fest Tickets go on sale on Dec. 11. Notice that they it’s only a two day event this year. Jan. 25 - Twins Daily Winter Meltdown Mark your calendar!! Feb. 12 - Pitchers and Catcher Report It may be a long time until baseball season, but we'll definitely have a lot to pay attention to over the next 99 days. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. Click here to view the article

You've made it clear that you don't judge based off awards, thus my comment about re-evaluating obviously don't apply to you. I am still curious as to what defensive metrics you're looking at as I have scoured Fan Graphs and Baseball Savant but cannot find somewhere that would show he's the best LF In the AL. I understand your scouting and insider knowledge are probably off limits but I'm still not seeing a metric that would suggest that. Am I looking in the wrong places?

I think Eddie gets so much hate because of where he batted in the order, which obviously isn't his fault. But putting him 4th, with his approach, was frustrating to watch for much of the second half.

Metrics and statistics definitely do not paint the whole picture. None of the ones that I have looked at take his "arm" into consideration, so he isn't be docked for how often he tried to throw home or the accuracy of his throws.

I'm curious what you're seeing that suggests that Grossman is the best LF in the AL? If you're using a gold glove as your only evidence, then I would recommend re-evaluating how you judge defenders in baseball. I'm not saying metrics and statistics are the end all be all, but I trust those wayyyy more than I trust the gold glove voting process. I know it's MLB coaches, but they're making their votes based on watching a player for at most 19 games and in majority of cases 3-7 times...assuming that the best defenders are in every game.

None of the defensive stats I've referenced rank/rate his "arm".

Odorizzi and Berrios posted the highest fWARs of their career. Once Pineda regained his velocity he was better than both Odorizzi and Berrios. Gibson was on pace for his highest fWAR season before ulcerative colitis derailed his season. This all seems really good, in my opinion.

Tom and I discussed Eddie's defense on Periscope...check it out!

That's called a minor league contract. If they would agree to that, great, but I doubt they are at the point in their careers where they can only get a minor league deal.

If the Twins are able to give big names at the top of the rotation, then these guys could be good fillers for very low cost. I completely agree...if the Twins headline the 2020 offseason with one of the three mentioned here, then we are in trouble. We do have young arms, but are they for sure any more or less solid than these 3? A very small sample of starts and relief work doesn't sell it for me.

I know there are many metrics to look at in terms and defensive performance, but most metrics suggest that Eddie has been below average since 2017 and has been getting worse each season.

If Michael Pineda is truly your 5th best starting pitcher then you might have the best 1-4 in baseball history! I would love this!

Despite Eddie Rosario being ranked as one of the worst outfielders in baseball, per Baseball Savant, the other two-thirds of the Twins outfield is one of the best in baseball. Let's take a deeper dive into three fly-ball pitchers on the free agent market who could complement the strengths of the Twins defense.Last week, I attempted to quantify the value of Byron Buxton's defense and joined Tom Froemming via Periscope to discuss several topics related to the outfield. Let's take a look at how that unit may impact how the Twins invest in their pitching staff. Four names that will not require a deep dive as you are probably already pretty familiar with are Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi. These four pitchers ranked in the top 50 in fly ball percentage in 2019, per FanGraphs, and I think any Twins fan would be happy to see them in uniform in 2020. After the four mentioned above, the remaining fly ball free agent pitchers would be guys who the Twins might grab as a fourth of fifth starter in their 2020 rotation. Jordan Lyles, RHP, 29 years old In his last two seasons, where he has played for four different teams, Lyles had a fly ball rate of 39.4 percent and a dreadful 16.1 percent homerun per fly-ball rate. Prior to his last two seasons he was more of a ground ball pitcher, but he’s been relying more on his fastball and curveball while using his sinker significantly less. Part of me wonders if this is partly because of pitching at Coors for three plus years of his career. Lyles' peripherals aren’t attractive, but the former 38th overall pick is young and will be cheap if the Twins decide to spend big on other names. If Wes Johnson can work his magic and improve Lyles' control, then we could tap into what the Astros saw back when they drafted him in 2008. Rick Porcello, RHP, 30 years old How is Rick Porcello only 30-years-old? It’s crazy to think he was the game 163 starter for the Tigers back in 2009. Ten seasons and one Cy Young Award later, Porcello enters the 2020 free agent class after one of his worst seasons as a pro. That said, Porcello might fit right in with Baldelli’s philosophy with his starting pitchers as well as the Twins defense. In 2019, Porcello was significantly worse the third time through the batting order than he was the first two times. One indication is his home run per fly-ball rate went from average to awful, per FanGraphs, and his K/BB went from above average to awful. As Baldelli did with Odorizzi in 2019, the key to Porcello may be not to let him face the opponent a third time through the order. Drew Smyly, LHP, 30 years old Another former Tiger, Drew Smyly, is a cheap name the Twins could add to the bottom of their rotation. Smyly has struggled with injuries for much of his career, so much so that he did not make a major league appearance in 2017 or 2018 before being signed by the Phillies in late July of 2019. He’s always been an intriguing pitcher when healthy as he has the ability to strike out more than one batter per inning. In his return, he boasted an above average K/BB of 3.24 but had a dreadful 19.1 percent home run per fly-ball rate in 62 2/3 innings, per FanGraphs. Taking the small sample into consideration, the good news is that the K/BB is right around his career averages while the home run per fly-ball rate is significantly higher. Of course none of the names above are the sexy names we are hoping the Twins will get, but at the end of the day the Twins need to find four guys who can take the ball every fifth day. Even the Houston Astros don’t have the sexiest of names as their fourth and fifth starters, but somebody has to do the job. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY 4 Off-the Radar Pitching Trade Targets for the Twins Should Twins Consider Moving Mitch Garver to 1B? Excellent Plate Discipline Emphasizes Why Luis Arraez Deserves Starting Spot on 2020 Twins Click here to view the article

Byron Buxton’s short four and a half year career has seen him play over just 100 games just once back in 2017. In the two years since, Buxton has only had five at-bats after July 31, most recently missing the Twins final two months of one of their best seasons in franchise history. With just three years of team control remaining and the 2020 offseason being crucial to the Twins competitive window, it’s time to consider how much the Twins should be planning their window around Buxton.Byron Buxton, when healthy, is one of the best center fielders in the game. Baseball Savant has many metrics that can make this argument. Keeping Buxton healthy has been endlessly debated on Twitter and, without spending too much time on that, I think the answer may be found by improving his reaction time, per the graphic from Baseball Savant below. I found their “jump” metric to be the most surprising. For being such a great outfielder (he was sixth in Outs Above Average among outfielders despite missing two months) he was rated as average in his “jump”, which takes into account a players reaction, burst, and route. Improving on reaction time is something much more realistic than asking him to change his instincts. Defense can be a hard thing to quantify in baseball, but using data Baseball Savant I will try to paint a picture of just how impactful Byron’s glove is in center field. For the majority of this exercise I will compare Buxton’s centerfield metrics to Max Kepler’s as he has the most meaningful data from the 2019 season. In 2019, the average batted ball had an average flight time of about five seconds, was hit about 65 feet away from the outfielder, and had a 97% catch probability. When looking at five second hang time data, the catch probability significantly drops from 85 feet (72.5%) to 90 feet (50.0%) and then again at 95 feet (27.8%), so this is the range I want to focus the comparison. In the graphic above, I have put a black rectangle around that 85 foot to 95 foot range mentioned above. Your first reaction might be to notice that the specified range, specifically around the five second mark, doesn’t look much different. On that note, I’d remind you that Kepler had 419.0 more innings in the outfield than Buxton and thus had many more opportunities to get outs. If anything, you should compare the number of grey dots (hits) in each rectangle as well as the number of red dots (outs) to the right of the rectangle. More simply put, Buxton had three more Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in fewer innings than Kepler. Let’s look at the impact it had on Twins pitchers. Due to sample size, I did not include relief pitchers, and due to suspension or health issues, the only starters I decided to include were Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. Prior to the Buxton injury on Aug. 1, Berrios and Odorizzi had a .968 and .830 OPS on line drives and fly balls hit to center field, respectively. After the Buxton injury, their OPS increased to 1.339 and 1.154, respectively. In short, it’s clear Buxton absence had a significant impact on their defense. With all that in mind, where do you sit on Buxton? Trade him? Buy out his arbitration years and sign him to a long-term deal? Continue playing the waiting game to see if he can stay healthy? Let’s discuss in the comments. Next week, I’ll be looking at what free agent starters we should target to compliment Buxton’s strengths. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY The 2020 Offseason Handbook Is Now Available for Preorder!Excellent Plate Discipline Emphasizes Why Luis Arraez Deserves Starting Spot on 2020 TwinsThe Defensive Future of Royce Lewis Click here to view the article

On Monday, I wrote a quick hitter on my 2019 Twins Daily Twins Awards. Now, I want to do a quick rundown of my postseason roster. Catcher: Mitch Garver, Jason Castro It'll be interesting to see how much they split time in the postseason. Both have been good this year but Garver has been better. Infielders: CJ Cron, Luis Arraez, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano With Rocco saying that Arraez is progressing better than expected, I think he'll make the roster. He may not play on Friday but I think we'll see him sometime during this series. Outfielders: Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave, Max Kepler It won't happen, but I'd love to see a guy like Ian Miller on the roster for his speed. On this roster, the Twins don't have anyone in their lineup to pinch run if they need speed on the bases. Utility/DH: Marwin Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, Ehire Adrianza or Willians Astudillo Adrianza, Gonzalez, and Astudillo are guys who can mostly play anywhere. The health of Adrianza makes it seem like he won't be on the roster, so I think Willians gets the 25th spot. Pitchers: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Zack Littell, Sergio Romo, Cody Stashak, Brusader Graterol, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Kyle Gibson The first 11 are locks for me. Kyle Gibson, I'm not so confident in. It feels weird to not have Gibson on the postseason roster, as the most tenured Twin, but if he's not healthy and can't pitch well then he shouldn't be on the roster. It's that simple. I also wouldn't be totally against leaving Adrianza/Astudillo off the roster and adding another pitcher like Martin Perez, but with his struggles I don't think he brings as much value as an extra utility player. What does your postseason roster look like?

Yep, fair point. I don't think the catchers defensive contribution (more than just blocking, framing, and throwing out runners) can be overstated. Catchers, outside of Realmuto, aren't expected to play everyday. Only 7 played more than 120 games next year. Garver will get a lot closer to that number next year with Castro, assumedly, gone. My opinion of Berrios fell drastically this year and could admittedly by biased with his second half, but I just don't think he'll ever be "the guy". Solid #2 but not the ace we heard so much about. 200 innings is great, but I need something more than quantity to get him on my list. Ultimately he had one bad year (2018) after having two and a half good years (2015-2017) and now a career year (2019). Sure there's a case but I don't know that anyone should have been super surprised by this year.