Part 5: Seth's Updated Top 50 Twins Prospects (16-20)

Palacios is the same age as Blankenhorn.

Palacios out hit him in single A.

Palacios is playing the more difficult position (SS vs 2B)

Blankenhorn is rated higher.

Are you assuming Palacios power was a one time occurrence and Blankenhorn will develop much more power?

Would you trade Jay before any of these players? My answer would be definitely NO.

Jay has potential of a power closer.

Jay is way under rated in your rankings.

Seth,  Your list so far seems like there have almost been themes to each grouping.  This grouping might be "The Youngish, Not Quite Elitish Infielder Group."  The last group was kind of the Questionable and Injured First Round Pitcher group.  I like it chunked, and I don't pay much attention to the individual rankings, just the range.

This year I feel a big distinction between TOTAL prospects and high floor guys.  By that I mean Granite, Jorge, and Curtiss all have made their debut and have shown they aren't going to be washouts, thus a high floor--they are going to contribute, at least as young and cheap players.  Curtiss at 16ish is high floor, but still reflects some good hope for upside--he could be a MLB closer.  Or just a guy.

I still like Jorge as someone who has a long MLB career.

Two pitchers who barring injury will have solid major league careers, plus three young infielders with good upside makes for a bright #16-#20.

Doubt there are any future stars in this group, although any of them could surprise us.  

Well said Han,

I've seen Jorge pitch 3 or 4 times for the Lookouts now, and each time I've come away with the impression that his stuff pitches "up".   Not anything that will blow you away, just kind of a "sneaky" good.  

Probably not a front line starter type, but if he realizes his full potential, maybe somewhere in the same ball park as Santana.

Well said Han,

 

I've seen Jorge pitch 3 or 4 times for the Lookouts now, and each time I've come away with the impression that his stuff pitches "up". Not anything that will blow you away, just kind of a "sneaky" good.

 

Probably not a front line starter type, but if he realizes his full potential, maybe somewhere in the same ball park as Santana.

How do you feel about Stewart? It's definitely not a perfect comparison, but their MiLB track records aren't all that different.

How do you feel about Stewart? It's definitely not a perfect comparison, but their MiLB track records aren't all that different.

I haven't seen him pitch in person.   For some reason we always seemed to not be able to make those games.   Otherwise I'd have to agree, at least stat comparison wise and what other posters have said who have seen him pitch.

I fully believe he has the talent and skill level to succeed, probably even at a high level.   His "thing" (if you can call it that) like most pitchers and position players, seems to be the mental side of the game.   Not worried yet as some guys just take longer to figure it out (Arrieta anyone?).

Why do we like Blankenhorn?  I like him too but I look at his results and I don't know why.  Is it draft position?  is it he is (kind of) young for his level? 

He doesn't seem to be a wiz at the corner spot, he strikes out a bit too much and his offensive stats are pedestrian.  He might be on the verge of being passed by.

I guess I'm confused a bit on Blenkenhorn. He is still pretty young, reportedly a good athlete has some power, and is already being pulled off 3B? Can he just not play the position at all? Is his arm weak? Seems to me with all the various middle infield prospects in the system, why convert a potential 3B to 2B at this time? Or is this just a case of increasing his positional flexibility going forward?

Each year the ranking get to  a section where I just don't have a lot of expectations and this is a group, other than Curtiss, that just does not excite me. 

Looks like the Twins may be taking a hit on all those minor league free agents they have. Rodriguez is an interesting loss. The Twins were pushing him, but transforming from a position player to a position player hurt him in the ultimate pecking order. Again, this is a prospect that yelled "trade me" last season. Waiting to see if the Twins lose Perez. The Red Wings roster looks pretty slim right now. Of course, most of their roster will be on the Twins 40-man this season, I imagine. Or at least a comfortable percentage.

Looks like the Twins may be taking a hit on all those minor league free agents they have. Rodriguez is an interesting loss. The Twins were pushing him, but transforming from a position player to a position player hurt him in the ultimate pecking order. Again, this is a prospect that yelled "trade me" last season. Waiting to see if the Twins lose Perez. The Red Wings roster looks pretty slim right now. Of course, most of their roster will be on the Twins 40-man this season, I imagine. Or at least a comfortable percentage.

Like you Rosterman, I always wonder why we don't see some of these guys moved before we lose them in either the Rule 5 or ML free agency.  Perhaps someone knows, but I am guessing there isn't much of a market for these type of trades.  Wouldn't help to get somebody's player back who is in the same situation.  Anyone have any insight into this problem?

Why do we like Blankenhorn?  I like him too but I look at his results and I don't know why.  Is it draft position?  is it he is (kind of) young for his level? 

 

He doesn't seem to be a wiz at the corner spot, he strikes out a bit too much and his offensive stats are pedestrian.  He might be on the verge of being passed by.

Blankenhorn started the season red hot.  I was almost ready to say they should promote him to the next level and he tapered off and then slumped badly.  I'm not sure what to think but I am still high on him.  If he figures things out as a hitter they can find a position to play him at. 

I think he came in as a Shortstop so he should be able to handle third but I haven't seen him play there.  They must like his speed and agility if they are playing him at 2nd.  Maybe looking for another Dozier type player because it looks like Blanky has power.  I am thinking he might follow the Max Murphy path at a younger age.  It seemed like it took Max a bit to hit the offspeed stuff and be more patient at the plate.  If he breaks out offensively then he will be a top ten prospect.  I am betting on the Blanket to  make it.

I think consistency is a big thing for players early in their careers. It's a long season. As they develop and work on mechanics and learn themselves and all of that, the goal would be that the consistency would come (preferably good consistency). 

 

Here are his OPS by month...

 

April: .776

May: .604

June: 1.048

July: .449

August: 1.023

 

September: 1.500 (though it was just 8 plate appearances)

 

Of course, these are just monthly break downs and there are probably wilder extremes looking at different start/end dates, but it isn't unusual to see something like this...

 

Also, he played SS in high school - like everyone - but they moved him to 3B/2B right away. I don't think the move to 2B in the 2nd half was anything related to performance. I think it was a planned thing to get him consistent time in both places. The reality is that they still are trying to figure out where he'll play. He's OK at both. 

I thought April was better than that he must have just had a hot couple of weeks then.

Correct... I mean, the three Twins minor leaguers who made it from the 2011 draft without getting added to the 40-man roster (hence making it to free agency) are: 

 

Levi Michael, Dereck Rodriguez and David Hurlbut.  Rodriguez (especially based on comments received) was probably a stretch at #29. The other two aren't Top 50 guys. Just hard to find trade value, except as toss-ins. 

When I responded above, Seth, I was thinking more of the guys like your second tier of players when you did your Rule 5 article. 

Expect the time to have moved them would have been July.  Perhaps we will see more moves in the future now that the new young management has settled in.

I guess I'm confused a bit on Blenkenhorn. He is still pretty young, reportedly a good athlete has some power, and is already being pulled off 3B? Can he just not play the position at all? Is his arm weak? Seems to me with all the various middle infield prospects in the system, why convert a potential 3B to 2B at this time? Or is this just a case of increasing his positional flexibility going forward?

This is maybe echoes of my 1970s baseball card interpretation of how good players were who I didn't know anything about, but there's something about the name Blankenhorn that makes me think: rock solid, no nonsense ballplayer.  My not even half-baked theory on why we like Blankenhorn is that his name sounds like an old school ballplayer.

Absolutely not trying to cast aspersion on any of the analysis here, but when I see him rated fairly high despite not that solid of numbers I can't help but wonder what his ranking would be if his name was Joe Smith or Jesus Rodriquez.

Curtiss ahead of Moya, Jay, and Burdi?  Based on?  Ceiling? Floor? Health?  Stuff?  Potential?  Results?

 

No way

 

As his 9 games in the majors showed, 0% HR/FB rate and .212 BABIP are not sustainable.  He really sucked when he was called up.

This is what we call small sample size.  Mike Schmidt did not reach the Mendoza line his first year in the bigs.  Do not know how things will turn out, but Seth has contacts where the bulk of us do not.  Let's wait and see.

I think Curtiss can be a closer. I could argue for Jay higher than him. Moya's more of a 7th-8th inning guy. Burdi could be a closer, but obviously with all the injuries, that's my concern.

 

9 games is not going to affect my thoughts on him.

Curtiss could be a decent pro, but boy you seem to put lot of stock in the classic FB/Slider guys with control issues. Moya has good control, a devestating change up, decent curve and enough FB to punish hitters waiting for the change up. His numbers are video game like and I would bet 1 US dollar that he ends his career with more saves than Curtiss. He's already in the lead!