Eephus

Drafting and development are essential for any organization attempting to keep a winning window open as long as possible. Organizations must develop big-league caliber players from each draft or find other ways to supplement their organization. Minnesota’s current front office has hit and missed on multiple draft picks, but some players are already showcasing the organization’s strengths. 

The Twins selected Cade Povich in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Povich posted a 3.52 ERA in three collegiate seasons with a 1.23 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. His junior season helped his draft stock as he posted a 2.82 ERA with a 79-to-19 strikeout to walk ratio in 73 1/3 innings. The left-handed hurler was not ranked very high in pre-draft rankings, but those rankings can have flaws, and the Twins hoped to improve Povich after he signed. 

In college, Povich was known for pumping strikes with a fastball that typically sat in the high-80s. Minnesota worked with Povich’s delivery and mechanics, and the results were immediately evident. His fastball velocity jumped with the improvements, and he can consistently hit in the low 90s with the ability to top out in the mid-to-high 90s. 
During his professional debut, Povich made four dominant appearances. In 10 innings, he allowed one earned run and struck out 19 of the 42 batters he faced. His 17.1 K/9 was quite the jump from his collegiate totals, but that was expected with his experience and improved delivery. All signs pointed to Povich being a prospect to watch during the 2022 season. 

Minnesota could have started Povich back at Low-A, but the team bumped him up to Cedar Rapids for the start of the 2022 campaign. He is over a year younger than the average age of the competition at High-A, as over 70% of his at-bats have come against older batters. Povich has held older competition to a .582 OPS with 62 strikeouts in 175 at-bats. He has posted five strikeouts or more in all but two appearances, including two games with 11 strikeouts.
“Povich throws four pitches and throws strikes with all of them,” Twins director of player development Alex Hassan said. “Fastball up to 96. We like his changeup and slider a lot. And he still has room to fill out physically.”

It’s exciting to project what Povich has the potential to become as he continues to develop. At Twins Daily, Povich has already moved into the team’s top-10 prospects, which is quite the rise for him in less than a year in the organization. He is the fifth highest-ranked pitcher in the organization and ranks higher than some of the team’s other draft picks from 2021. 

Pitching prospects can be fickle, and Povich is far from making his debut at Target Field. Organizations must have pitching depth within their system, and Povich certainly adds to the team’s pitching pipeline. Even with his improvements, Povich still projects as a potential mid-rotation starter. That might not sound like a lot, but the Twins need to continue developing MLB talent. For a third-round pick, Povich is already exceeding expectations. 

What stands out to you about Povich? How high is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 

Coming into the weekend, Byron Buxton has put up a tremendous season so far. He’s 36% above league average offensively according to wRC+ and has topped his career-high in home runs, well on his way to over 40 despite regular rest days. That being said, it's been a puzzling season for the Twins' star center fielder. While we can’t complain about his performance to date, it is worth wondering about Buxton moving forward.
The goal has always been to keep Byron Buxton healthy. Since 2019, he has been a well above league-average hitter whenever he’s been on the field. The Twins have accomplished that to an extent this season, as he’s avoided any IL trips thus far despite a few small injuries here and there leading to short absences. It’s widely understood that Buxton has been and will likely continue working through a chronic knee injury suffered in Boston back in April. Just something to keep in mind when looking at Buxton’s season.
As you can see, Buxton’s season consists of incredibly high highs and incredibly low lows. It’s possible that these brutal streaks coincide with flare-ups of his ailing knee, an issue that unfortunately doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon. One thing is for certain, however, after a shortened 2021 season in which he would have paced out as one of the best in baseball, he’s completely changed his approach.
After an unbelievably well-rounded line of .306/.358/.647 in 2021, Buxton has essentially failed to provide anything at all at the plate aside from power. His .218 batting average is his worst mark since 2018 and his .293 OBP is his worst since 2020, a season in which he walked only 1.5% of the time. While he’s having a career year in terms of walk rate (7.9%), his strikeout rate of 28.2% is his highest since 2018 as well. His batting average on balls in play of .210 is also a career-worst by a long shot. Why might that be?
After a shortened 2021 season in which Buxton was one of the best hitters in baseball, his flyball rate has absolutely exploded from 38.4 to 50.3%. To put it simply, in more than half of his batted ball events he’s hitting the ball in the air. 26.5% of those fly balls have found the seats, but the other 73.5% are easy outs. This increase in fly balls has come at the expense of his line drives, a batted ball type that typically rewards hitters league-wide with a near .700 batting average. It’s worth noting that Buxton’s quality of contact remains intact and has afforded him a .262 xBA and .358 xWOBA to this point, but it seems flyball-oriented hitters league wide have underperformed so far in 2022.
Regarding the short term, it’s worth considering how such a flawed plate approach could affect him moving forward. Since May 11, Buxton is slashing .192/.273/.479, still a 110 wRC+, but nowhere near the superstar levels we’ve seen him achieve in the past. The entirety of that measure comes strictly from slugging percentage, as the batting average and on-base ability are quite frankly terrible. Masking those numbers are several high-profile home runs in the clutch, a trait that many believe isn’t a predictive or repeatable skill. His overall batting line wouldn’t change if just a few of his homers hadn’t come in such clutch spots, but would the perception around him change at all?
In the long term, you have to desperately hope this change in approach isn’t an active choice that he intends to continue. We’ve seen that Buxton is still a valuable player while he’s selling out for fly balls, but becoming so one-dimension offensively cuts off any chance of being the MVP level player he’s capable of being. Furthermore, he’s able to take the mistakes he’s given and drive them over the fence regularly enough to mask his other deficiencies in 2022. What happens a few years down the road when that ability decreases with age?
There’s no action to take with Byron Buxton at this time, and it’s incredibly hard to be dissatisfied with his season thus far. Still, it’s worth pointing out that there has been a major change in his approach this season that has made him a decidedly worse offensive player. This “sell out for fly balls” approach has resulted in just three more big flies than he had in a near-identical amount of plate appearances in 2021, and every other offensive stat of his has suffered greatly as a result. Hitting home runs is fun, but he’s going to have to continue to do so in high-leverage spots to make any meaningful contributions on offense.
Perhaps it’s his knee injury, or perhaps it was an active choice to get the ball in the air as much as possible coming into the season. Either way, after several brutal stretches already this season followed by glimpses of what Byron Buxton can be, hopefully another change in approach is on the horizon. 
Perhaps it’s not fair to judge the way somebody achieves success. In Buxton’s case, however, it’s so hard to imagine why we’re seeing such a dramatic shift in approach coming off an MVP-caliber performance. Does this change in approach concern you? Are you happy to enjoy the big flies while they last and worry about the future when we get there? Let us know below!
 

Remember Steve Carlton? The not-very-integral member of the 1987 World Champion Minnesota Twins was, at one time, the best pitcher in baseball. Four Cy Youngs, five years leading the National League in strikeouts (the fifth time at age 38), last pitcher to throw 300 innings a season, led the Phillies to their first title in 1980. A remarkable career.
He was also completely out of his mind.
Carlton never spoke to the media, which means we didn’t learn until he was long retired that he built a mountain lair with a 7000-foot storage cellar loaded to the gills with guns and bottled water for “The Revolution.” That revolution was coming thanks to Russian sound waves, the Skull and Bones Society, the Elders of Zion, the National Education Association, and more. I’m aware this qualifies him to represent the state of Georgia in Congress today, but in 1994 this was wild stuff.
One assumes that the Phillies knew that Steve was off his nut, but when you can produce like he did, you let that stuff slide a little bit, especially if he keeps it quiet. By the time he was failing to make the Minnesota Twins playoff roster because he wasn’t as good as Lester Straker, he was just a cooked 43-year-old with weirdly anti-Semitic ideas about how the world works. He never pitched again.
Which brings me to Andrelton Simmons.
Already the COVID patient zero of the Twins locker room, he took to social media on Thursday to let the world know, and I quote:
I’m not going to debate the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines with Simmons or anyone else, as there is no debate to be had. They work. Please shut up and let the horses have their wormer paste. (Also, it’s “effects.”)
Across town, the Vikings are dealing with a similar situation. A handful of their best players (Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, I guess Kirk Cousins if you squint hard enough) apparently won’t get the vacc either. It presents some hard choices for them, as they don’t have quality replacements for any of them as the regular season looms, and the NFL will make teams forfeit games if they can’t field a lineup due to COVID quarantines.
The Twins face no such dilemma.
The season is over. Simmons is an offensive liability and a good-to-excellent defender, which basically makes him a better Jeff Reboulet, if Jeff Reboulet thought Jurassic Park was real. He’s on a one-year deal. Maybe if he was the standout player in a disappointing season you could let his idiocy slide. Or maybe if it was something less harmful and kind of quirky, like thinking the earth was flat or dedicating his Instagram Stories to proving that birds are a deep-fake.
He’s not good enough to get away with this. Let the summer of Drew Maggi begin.
Image license here.