One Pitching Prospect Highlights the Importance of Drafting and Development

There is a lot to like in Povich, look for good things from him. Yes, draft very important for Twins, especially pitching. Twins have had difficult time signing top FA pitchers, need to develop them.

It's amazing to me that MLB teams repeatedly draft pitchers who spent 3+ years at a big D1 program and immediately add 5+ MPH to their fastballs just from some mechanical tweaks.

With all the analytic/biomechanical information available these days, I'd think D1 programs would be closer to MLB teams in terms of maximizing a player's potential. Good for the Twins though -- I'm excited to follow Povich.

The things I like about Povich are his K rate and that he is a solid lefty pitcher.  While he has held his own at High A to this point there do seem to be signs of him falling off.  His WHIP has been rising giving up more hits and walks means there is more to work on IMO.  

I like that the Twins pushed him to High A as I think he was up for the challenge.  He is the best lefty I have seen in the Twins system probably ever and Hajjar is right there with him.  Just hope he can keep refining his stuff to be even more unhittable.

There’s a lot to like with Povich. But if he was with the big league club Rocco would limit him to four inning starts or 70 pitches, whichever come first. Very aggravating! I hope he gets stretched out some in the minors. 

College arms are expected to dominate at Low A since Low-A is probably similar to the top Division I college baseball conferences in terms of competition level. High-A is a big step up, but if a college pitcher struggles there, it's a very bad sign. Generally, I don't get too excited about pitchers until they produce at AA because a single component of pitching can carry up until that point (stuff/control/command).

Mechanics are obviously key to velocity as the right mechanics turned 5'10" 155lb Tim Lincecum into a 100mph fastball monster. Elite velocity can make a big difference below AA/AAA, but there are no MLB hitters who cannot put a 100mph straight-ball into the seats. Also, I don't really see the "filling out" as a good thing so I don't understand the obsession with everybody looking like Ben Rortvedt. Pitchers aren't impact players like NFL linebackers or something. The extra weight = extra strain on the body and body type means much less than mechanics in regard to velocity, but there seems to be a school of thought players who look like defensive lineman are ideal.

Some people have wondered if the Twins pushing pitchers to change their mechanics to add velocity has led to the incredible level of injuries among Twins pitching prospects. It seems reasonable "filling out" could help in regard to building up certain muscle groups to relieve strain on joints, etc, but until the muscle groups supporting the mechanical changes are built up, I'd wager changes of injury increase quite a bit.

I'm probably just babbling at this point.

Back on topic... I'm not all in on the Povich bandwagon. Almost all prospects are younger than their competition and 1 year means nothing meaningful at any level of baseball. Povich is sitting at a 3.96 ERA (which isn't good) and considering he's a Division I college pitcher in his 2nd professional year at A+, I'd expect him to be good. Povich is a strike thrower so he doesn't walk a lot of guys, but he's not exactly skimpy on the walk rate, either at about 3/9. He also gives up a lot of hits so he's been unable to strand runners despite the high strikeout rate. His inability to strand runners has led to a rough 5.09 RA9. If a runner reaches on an error, it seems Povich isn't able to pitch out of the jam. Small sample sizes and less than stellar fielding in the minors no doubt contributes to the situation, though. Just have to wait and see.

2 hours ago, Dman said:

The things I like about Povich are his K rate and that he is a solid lefty pitcher.  While he has held his own at High A to this point there do seem to be signs of him falling off.  His WHIP has been rising giving up more hits and walks means there is more to work on IMO.  

I like that the Twins pushed him to High A as I think he was up for the challenge.  He is the best lefty I have seen in the Twins system probably ever and Hajjar is right there with him.  Just hope he can keep refining his stuff to be even more unhittable.

Do you remember Lewis Thorpe at A ball?  Prior to his JT and his mono stint he was putting up strike out numbers and a sub 2 ERA.  

As a pitcher i am a get to AA and pitch well before I get excited about pitchers.  At A ball you can get guys out with 1 pitch and lack of command.  

What's not to be excited about here? He's LH, throws 4 at least decent pitches (reportedly), with solid control. If the 94-97mph he's been reported at is consistent, he's absolutely deserving of his ranking.

He only threw 10 innings after being drafted last year split between rookie ball and A-. Currently he has fewer hits than IP, a solid .232 BA against, better than a 4-1 SO/BB ratio while jumping straight to A+ this year. Walks are a little high but not bad. Only real negative I can see is 7 HR in 63 innings.

Filling out doesn't necessitate his becoming huge. It means getting a little stronger to potentially further increase velocity, but also to be able to maintain velocity over multiple innings. He was listed only about 185lbs when drafted, so I'd love to see him add a little muscle.

Not sure it's going to be tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him at AA for a handful of games to end the season.

What's not to be excited about? The 4.00 ERA / 5.00 RA9 at A+ ball from a two year pro college draftee.

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

What's not to be excited about? The 4.00 ERA / 5.00 RA9 at A+ ball from a two year pro college draftee.

You keep saying two year pro.  Povich is from the 2021 draft, what am I missing here?  

10 hours ago, SportsGuyDalton said:

It's amazing to me that MLB teams repeatedly draft pitchers who spent 3+ years at a big D1 program and immediately add 5+ MPH to their fastballs just from some mechanical tweaks.

With all the analytic/biomechanical information available these days, I'd think D1 programs would be closer to MLB teams in terms of maximizing a player's potential. Good for the Twins though -- I'm excited to follow Povich.

That would be why Johnson got big bucks 

Seems a LOT like the type of guy sellers are going to be looking for when we call about big league arms to help us down the stretch.

19 hours ago, aspen3109 said:

You keep saying two year pro.  Povich is from the 2021 draft, what am I missing here?  

2021
2022

Two years.

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

2021
2022

Two years.

That's weak.  10 innings, 4 appearances after one is drafted isn't a year in pro ball.  It's 3 weeks of pro ball, not a year.

You don't need to exaggerate something to bolster an opinion that is in the extreme minority across multiple outlets.  But, maybe that's why you did so.  Just say you don't like him, without manipulation. 

8 hours ago, aspen3109 said:

 

That's weak.  10 innings, 4 appearances after one is drafted isn't a year in pro ball.  It's 3 weeks of pro ball, not a year.

You don't need to exaggerate something to bolster an opinion that is in the extreme minority across multiple outlets.  But, maybe that's why you did so.  Just say you don't like him, without manipulation. 

You believe the only value teams offer players is experience while they're on the mound facing competition? Got it.

Here's a thought to consider. Coaches, trainers, medical staff, analytics departments and other staff work on development even while a pitcher isn't actively on the mound including offseason workouts and training programs. What happens on the mound itself is a reflection of all the work (days/weeks/months) which happens off the mound.

You think Josh Winder just started throwing 7mph faster than when he was drafted because the pitching coach ran out there between innings and said, "hey, throw harder?" I mean, you're free to ignore all the workouts, throwing programs and buildup...

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You believe the only value teams offer players is experience while they're on the mound facing competition? Got it.

Here's a thought to consider. Coaches, trainers, medical staff, analytics departments and other staff work on development even while a pitcher isn't actively on the mound including offseason workouts and training programs. What happens on the mound itself is a reflection of all the work (days/weeks/months) which happens off the mound.

You think Josh Winder just started throwing 7mph faster than when he was drafted because the pitching coach ran out there between innings and said, "hey, throw harder?" I mean, you're free to ignore all the workouts, throwing programs and buildup...

When using in-season stats, like you did, to discuss a player that was just drafted less than 12 months ago yes - on the mound facing competition is the discussion.  If you add value to a prospect due to what happens off the field, and still don't like Povich - your original opinion is even more questionable.  But that's the great thing about opinions, everyone has one.  His gains off the bump should excite every single Twins fan out there.  Huge jump in velo, huge jump in slider rpm, more consistent change and added to his body.  But off the field is meaningless for this discussion as they get placed for what they do during competition & get paid for what they do on the field.    

I'm well aware of what to consider.  I've been there.  My name was called.  11 years worth between every single level, including winter ball in 3 countries, plus the show with 5 different teams.  You're not corresponding with a below average fan that doesn't understand the work that's put in 12 months a year.

Your sarcasm is noted.  It's alright, you don't like Povich.  I would like to see more consistency from him, but he has shown a lot of promise in less than 12 months as a professional for me to keep a close eye on him.  He's still in his first year as a professional.   

4 hours ago, aspen3109 said:

 

When using in-season stats, like you did, to discuss a player that was just drafted less than 12 months ago yes - on the mound facing competition is the discussion.  If you add value to a prospect due to what happens off the field, and still don't like Povich - your original opinion is even more questionable.  But that's the great thing about opinions, everyone has one.  His gains off the bump should excite every single Twins fan out there.  Huge jump in velo, huge jump in slider rpm, more consistent change and added to his body.  But off the field is meaningless for this discussion as they get placed for what they do during competition & get paid for what they do on the field.    

 

I'm well aware of what to consider.  I've been there.  My name was called.  11 years worth between every single level, including winter ball in 3 countries, plus the show with 5 different teams.  You're not corresponding with a below average fan that doesn't understand the work that's put in 12 months a year.

 

Your sarcasm is noted.  It's alright, you don't like Povich.  I would like to see more consistency from him, but he has shown a lot of promise in less than 12 months as a professional for me to keep a close eye on him.  He's still in his first year as a professional.   

I just don't see where you're really going with this. Povich is not young or inexperienced vs. his competition and he's had last year real world professional experience on the mound (though limited), and an entire offseason to work on a throwing program, mechanics, etc. He's also had this season to see the results from the offseason throwing program. This is his 2nd year of professional experience. If you want to take the opinion I should say 1 year of experience or I should have said 1.5 years experience because of the two pro seasons and one offseason or whatever, that's your opinion. 

It could be the Twins aren't actually trying to evaluate Povich's best performance numbers right now and are instead having him focus on getting command and control over one or more of his pitches. I'd say that's pretty likely considering Povich's best rank was #276 by Baseball America and unranked by everybody else when the Twins took him at #98. 

I agree results are basically all normal fans like myself can get excited about because I'm not part of the Twins' development team. All I can really judge is the numbers, but I also understand the numbers are not a reflection of the work the pitcher is doing on the bump in games, but the work the pitcher put in away from the game. The game itself is proof of the work and the theory. When it comes to the actual results, they are not that impressive. A 4.00 ERA and 5.00 RA9 are adequate, not exciting. The 1.21 WHIP is pretty good, but certainly not great. That's why I say we'll just have to wait and see.

Seems like the perfect type of guy to trade for a relief pitcher.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I just don't see where you're really going with this. Povich is not young or inexperienced vs. his competition and he's had last year real world professional experience on the mound (though limited), and an entire offseason to work on a throwing program, mechanics, etc. He's also had this season to see the results from the offseason throwing program. This is his 2nd year of professional experience. If you want to take the opinion I should say 1 year of experience or I should have said 1.5 years experience because of the two pro seasons and one offseason or whatever, that's your opinion. 

It could be the Twins aren't actually trying to evaluate Povich's best performance numbers right now and are instead having him focus on getting command and control over one or more of his pitches. I'd say that's pretty likely considering Povich's best rank was #276 by Baseball America and unranked by everybody else when the Twins took him at #98. 

I agree results are basically all normal fans like myself can get excited about because I'm not part of the Twins' development team. All I can really judge is the numbers, but I also understand the numbers are not a reflection of the work the pitcher is doing on the bump in games, but the work the pitcher put in away from the game. The game itself is proof of the work and the theory. When it comes to the actual results, they are not that impressive. A 4.00 ERA and 5.00 RA9 are adequate, not exciting. The 1.21 WHIP is pretty good, but certainly not great. That's why I say we'll just have to wait and see.

I'm not going anywhere with anything except to tell you, he's a first year pro.  As are every single other 2021 draftee, it's that simple.  What off-season throwing program did he go thru?  I'll fill you in on something, he had an extremely condensed "throwing program", if that's what someone wants to call it, after he was done in Florida in 2021.  He didn't pick up a ball till late December with a <15 toss minimal build-up till he showed up in January.  Pending his work load in 2022, it'll be interesting to see how the Twins handle this off-season.  He's at the halfway point of season one and you act like the guy has 200+ innings under his belt.  That's not just an opinion, it's a common sense opinion supported by damn near every single front office in MLB.  Baseball America is likely the most laziest publication out there when it comes to college baseball and draft projections after the first round, maybe two.  Baseball America, or whatever other publication you decide to cite next, is irrelevant during the process.  They may assist with a tip, but it starts & ends with that.    D1 Baseball covers college, with a lot of focus on the midwest, better than anyone else out there.  And they were all over Povich and it grew as the 2021 Nebraska season went on.  They ended up pretty spot on regarding him.   

What rank BA & "everyone else" had for the 2021 draft, and has for drafts moving forward, is irrelevant.  What matters is what's going on after they're drafted.  So, do us a favor and let everyone know how many boards he's moving up.  Hint:  Almost everyone.  Oh, and by the way, Baseball America has an update coming & guess what!?  LOL, uh huh, he's getting a bump in their ratings so thanks for inserting them in to the discussion...

Also, just so you know, the Twins hosted Povich the same week they hosted Miller.  60-70+ Twins staff in attendance, including the decision makers.  All at Target Field, with intention.  I can say for certain there were 13 other ball clubs that wanted to host Povich that week and they decided on the Twins.  19 different teams, some multiple times, watched his bullpens from the time Nebraska's season ended up to the draft.  They all went to Omaha to do so.  Joe Bisenius did a heck of a comprehensive job on Povich throughout the college season.   Point of sharing this is, teams aren't exhausting their resources in the last 3 weeks leading up to the draft on someone that is far down many teams' boards.  The Twins had a choice to make; take a gamble and draft him in the 5th or 6th where they had projected him OR, move up to the 3rd as multiple teams were in position to take him in the 4th round.  I believe there were 4 teams, but I'm not 100% certain, maybe it was 3 but no less than 3 were prepared to take him in the 4th.  If you doubt me, reach out to Seth or Ted and ask them.  Just do us a favor if you do contact them, share their response.      

No, that isn't what the Twins are doing.  If they were, he'd still be in Florida.  You don't aggressively place someone in their first season of pro ball outside low A to focus on getting command and control over one or more pitches.  You do so to challenge them against older competition, whether it's 1 or 2 years doesn't matter & that's what the Twins have done.  Right, wrong, or indifferent is another discussion to have but one I'm not interested in outside of sharing I thought he should've started in low A for the first 4-6 weeks then go from there.  Had that happened, I don't think we're having any further discussion outside of 1 v 2 years of pro ball.

Ahhh, back to judging (meaningless) numbers.  I'm going to give you another hint, and leave this discussion for good.  ERA & RA9 are quite possibly the last thing they look at in high A.  Here are the 4 categories of focus; FIP (2.90), K % (32%), K/9 (12.3), BB % (7%).  The (   ) represents his 2022 numbers, and I believe they're up to date.  The first three are damn good, and the fourth needs just a little work which I think will happen once he grasps the velocity jump.  

1 hour ago, aspen3109 said:

 

I'm not going anywhere with anything except to tell you, he's a first year pro.  As are every single other 2021 draftee, it's that simple.  What off-season throwing program did he go thru?  I'll fill you in on something, he had an extremely condensed "throwing program", if that's what someone wants to call it, after he was done in Florida in 2021.  He didn't pick up a ball till late December with a <15 toss minimal build-up till he showed up in January.  Pending his work load in 2022, it'll be interesting to see how the Twins handle this off-season.  He's at the halfway point of season one and you act like the guy has 200+ innings under his belt.  That's not just an opinion, it's a common sense opinion supported by damn near every single front office in MLB.  Baseball America is likely the most laziest publication out there when it comes to college baseball and draft projections after the first round, maybe two.  Baseball America, or whatever other publication you decide to cite next, is irrelevant during the process.  They may assist with a tip, but it starts & ends with that.    D1 Baseball covers college, with a lot of focus on the midwest, better than anyone else out there.  And they were all over Povich and it grew as the 2021 Nebraska season went on.  They ended up pretty spot on regarding him.   

 

What rank BA & "everyone else" had for the 2021 draft, and has for drafts moving forward, is irrelevant.  What matters is what's going on after they're drafted.  So, do us a favor and let everyone know how many boards he's moving up.  Hint:  Almost everyone.  Oh, and by the way, Baseball America has an update coming & guess what!?  LOL, uh huh, he's getting a bump in their ratings so thanks for inserting them in to the discussion...

 

Also, just so you know, the Twins hosted Povich the same week they hosted Miller.  60-70+ Twins staff in attendance, including the decision makers.  All at Target Field, with intention.  I can say for certain there were 13 other ball clubs that wanted to host Povich that week and they decided on the Twins.  19 different teams, some multiple times, watched his bullpens from the time Nebraska's season ended up to the draft.  They all went to Omaha to do so.  Joe Bisenius did a heck of a comprehensive job on Povich throughout the college season.   Point of sharing this is, teams aren't exhausting their resources in the last 3 weeks leading up to the draft on someone that is far down many teams' boards.  The Twins had a choice to make; take a gamble and draft him in the 5th or 6th where they had projected him OR, move up to the 3rd as multiple teams were in position to take him in the 4th round.  I believe there were 4 teams, but I'm not 100% certain, maybe it was 3 but no less than 3 were prepared to take him in the 4th.  If you doubt me, reach out to Seth or Ted and ask them.  Just do us a favor if you do contact them, share their response.      

 

No, that isn't what the Twins are doing.  If they were, he'd still be in Florida.  You don't aggressively place someone in their first season of pro ball outside low A to focus on getting command and control over one or more pitches.  You do so to challenge them against older competition, whether it's 1 or 2 years doesn't matter & that's what the Twins have done.  Right, wrong, or indifferent is another discussion to have but one I'm not interested in outside of sharing I thought he should've started in low A for the first 4-6 weeks then go from there.  Had that happened, I don't think we're having any further discussion outside of 1 v 2 years of pro ball.

 

Ahhh, back to judging (meaningless) numbers.  I'm going to give you another hint, and leave this discussion for good.  ERA & RA9 are quite possibly the last thing they look at in high A.  Here are the 4 categories of focus; FIP (2.90), K % (32%), K/9 (12.3), BB % (7%).  The (   ) represents his 2022 numbers, and I believe they're up to date.  The first three are damn good, and the fourth needs just a little work which I think will happen once he grasps the velocity jump.  

Povich wasn't atop draft rankings for Baseball America, MLB.com, Prospects1500, Bleacher Report or any major publication which provides scouting reports. I stated that only to back up the assertion the Twins would have expected to have some development work with Povich, which feeds into the idea the Twins may be having him work on his pitches, not the results. The statement was not to put him down or make any assertion about how good he could be or where he should be ranked now... 

I did not imply Povich was placed into A+ ball to work on his pitches, which is where I think you're addressing with your "no, that's not what they're doing" paragraph. I'm implying the Twins are undoubtedly working with Povich on developing his pitches and depending on the focus of Povich's development, the objective may reasonably be focused on improving his control or feel for specific pitches rather than trying to get the absolute best possible results in the game by only throwing in his comfort zone.

Me: Cade Povich is a 2nd year pro because he's had significant professional experience in two separate years, plus an offseason program including spring training, etc. 

You: Cade Povich is a 1 year pro. Offseason activities don't really matter and you paint yourself as an industry insider, possible Twins staffer, pitching development expert and experienced MLB pitcher. 

I thought I was pretty clear why I'm not all-in on Povich. He's given up quite a few hits so his WHIP isn't great and he hasn't been able to pitch out of jams despite the high strikeout rate and that has led to an uninspiring ERA/RA9. I'd put more faith in FIP if the scoring seemed more reliable in the minors. Results matter to me because there have been a dozen Twins pitching prospects who never panned out despite being labeled as studs who were just unlucky with results.

You're free to say I'm wrong. You're free to have an opinion, and if you are an insider, your opinion is definitely more informed than mine, but if you do have that insider professional development knowledge, lend yourself some credibility and stop adding/changing the context of my comments. You should have enough confidence in your own position to stop misrepresenting mine.

On 7/9/2022 at 11:13 AM, bean5302 said:

... Mechanics are obviously key to velocity as the right mechanics turned 5'10" 155lb Tim Lincecum into a 100mph fastball monster. ...

This surprised me. You might want to double-check your research on The Freak.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tim-lincecum/5705/pitch-type-splits?position=P

In '08 his fastball averaged 94.1 mph; in '09: 92.4. Those were his Cy Young years. By '14, his fastball averaged less than 90 mph.  It was that incredible changeup that had batters lunging out of their shoes. 

Maybe you were thinking of someone else?

No debate on his talent. But scouts were concerned about his frail build. Obviously, everyone would love to draft and develop a two-time CY winner who helps you win three world series in five years. But sadly, scouts' concerns over his frailty were right, in terms of how short his career was, given his early dominance. 

IMO....this organization is not very good at developing, especially pitching.  So draft some good ones and trade them for MLB ready average-above average pitchers.  Seems we wait forever for nothing.