SkyBlueWaters

Save your comments about the Twins inexorable run of postseason trauma. Everyone knows about the streak. I’m not here to talk about the streak. What I’m interested in is, are this season’s Minnesota Twins set up favorably (from a roster construction standpoint) to make a run in October? I think the answer is no. Here’s three reasons why.
A Lack of High Leverage Relief Arms
Watching the Yankees come back to win the final game of their series with the Twins was painfully familiar. The Yankees slowly eroded a 7-3 Twins lead, behind an incredible effort from their bullpen. While the Yankees are an extreme comparison (they have the best bullpen in baseball), they are relevant for a few reasons.
One, they are the type of team you are going to have to beat to make a meaningful October run. Two, think about how October games are won. Short starts, lots of relief innings. I know I’m not the only Twins fan who wonders, after a solid four innings from Chris Archer, how Rocco Baldelli will navigate the bullpen gauntlet with the limited weapons he has at his disposal. Here are a few of the Yankees best relievers by FIP: Banuelos 1.57, Holmes 1.65, King 1.91, Peralta 2.78. Let’s go through a similar exercise for the Twins: Jhoan Duran 2.96, Caleb Thielbar 3.05, Griffin Jax 3.27, Smith 4.52.
While the Twins bullpen has generally been successful, they are not set up for October success. They lack enough high-leverage arms, and overall quality depth. This must be addressed ahead of the trade deadline if the Twins are serious about winning in October.
Not Enough High-Caliber Starting Pitching
While watching the Twins repeatedly hit the ball hard on Tuesday against Logan Gilbert in a game where the offense put up a higher xBA (.244) than the Mariners (.241), I asked myself if the Twins have a starting pitcher better than Gilbert? You can make a case that Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are better, ultimately, they’re a similar caliber of starter to Gilbert. Outside of Gray and Ryan, there is no one on the Twins roster I would feel confident in going into an October matchup. Simply put, if the Twins are serious about winning in the playoffs, not just making them, they need to add another starting pitcher who can compete effectively in a playoff game.
A Feast or Famine Offense
I’ll end with the most modest concern. After losing to the Mariners on Tuesday night, the Twins has been shut out 9 times, most in MLB. While the offense is top ten in most major offensive categories (5th in wRC+, 7th in wOBA), they also have more peaks and valleys than other offenses. After recording 72 hits in 6 games against the likes of Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, and Nestor Cortes, they proceeded to score 3 runs in their next 27 innings, against the Rays bullpen, Chris Flexen, and Logan Gilbert. While the offense is the strength of the team, the caliber of pitching, particularly relief pitching, will make putting up crooked numbers in October difficult.
Put simply, this Twins team is a jack of all-trades, and a master of none. Their offense is good, not exceptional. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are the only starting pitchers who have any business starting a playoff game. There are few to no trusted high leverage relief arms outside Jhoan Duran. If the Twins are to subvert the incredibly tiresome postseason narrative, the front office will have to do something they have yet to do with regards to roster construction; go all in.
 
 

Josh Winder gained a lot of prospect steam last season as he performed incredibly well at Double-A with a sub 2.00 ERA in 50+ innings before getting promoted to Triple-A. He may have been well on his way to his MLB debut before being shut down with shoulder issues, but he looks healthy and effective so far this spring. 
Winder finds himself in the conversation for a rotation spot due to what can only be described as a massive disappointment in regards to the Twins addressing their rotation this winter. They currently have four starting pitchers penciled in with Opening Day less than two weeks away. Led by Sonny Gray, the rest of the rotation consists of reclamation project Dylan Bundy and two rookies in Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, the latter of which has only five MLB starts under his belt. The fifth spot at this point is unspoken for. Candidates include Devin Smeltzer who isn't currently on the 40 man roster. Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax have been moved into bullpen roles but could find themselves competing due to a lack of other options. Then of course we have Josh Winder who has yet to debut.
It’s fair to grab ahold of the shiny new prospect when reading that list of names. The other three, of course, have all had their opportunities and haven’t exactly flourished. It’s absolutely possible that the Twins see this decision the same way if they fail to bring in one more arm. It’s worth noting that Winder winding up in the Opening Day rotation, however, should be viewed with much more disappointment than excitement.
From Minnesota to the rest of the league, rookie pitchers fail all the time (or at least most often) in their debut. It should almost be expected at this point. Some need a bit more time in the minors such as when Jose Berrios debuted with his 8+ ERA. Others just never figure it out despite being highly touted all throughout the minors such as Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero. It’s important to remember this not just to be pessimistic, but to keep expectations in check.
Winder hadn’t pitched above A ball until 2021 when he posted those 54 2/3 innings in AA, and not only did he put up only 17 innings in AAA, but they weren’t all that effective. His K% fell from 31.3% to 22.4%. He allowed two home runs in those 17 innings and posted a 4.67 ERA before being shut down. Surely a small sample size, but not exactly a performance that screams “MLB ready”.
The point being, if the Twins don’t add another starting pitcher to the roster and go with Winder right out of the gate, they may very well be following up an offseason failure with a decision that damages one of their top pitching prospects as well as their season. They’d likely be better off mixing and matching with arms they know everything about than a rookie pitcher who hasn’t shown he’s quite MLB ready yet.
Winder would make a great Plan B for any struggling or injured arms after the season begins assuming he’s doing reasonably well in St. Paul. It’s fair to assume that he makes his debut in some way in 2022. It just shouldn’t be as the third rookie starting pitcher on an Opening Day roster that considers themselves contenders.
Am I just a thief of joy, or do you agree? Leave your COMMENTS below. 
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
— Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

There’s been no denying that the Twins needed significant help in the starting rotation. Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are the only current locks, and two of those three have less than an entire season of Major League experience under their belt. Pitching will always come at a substantial cost, and we saw that here in Minnesota needing to part with the 2021 26th overall pick, Chase Petty.
Gray has become less of an extreme ground-ball-inducing pitcher than he was early in his career, but he continues to hover right around 50%. He gives up hard contact less than 30% of the time, and his whiff rates are workable. Gray now operates with an average fastball around 93 mph while mixing a slider and curveball.
 
After leaving the Yankees, Gray signed a four-year deal for $38 million with Cincinnati. He’s on the books for 2022 at $10.166 million and has a $12 million team option for 2023. The option is almost certain to be picked up, and he’d pair with Kenta Maeda to form a solid one-two punch once the former staff ace returns from injury.
Minnesota also grabbed Francis Peguero in the deal. He’s a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher outside of the Reds top 30 prospects. Peguero had been in their system since he was a teenager and made his stateside debut in 2018 at the age of 20. Last season, Peguero pitched at High-A Dayton and owned a 4.96 ERA. He’s worked 74 games for 103 innings and operated solely as a reliever. Looking at his track record, Peguero has some things Minnesota can work with. A high K/9 is paired with low home run and walk rates. Giving up contact too often has been troublesome, and he presents a project for the Twins development staff.
 
Chase Petty, last season’s 1st round pick for Minnesota, is going to the Reds. He’s a hard thrower and had arguably the best velocity of anyone in the 2021 draft. Debuting in the Florida Complex League, Petty got in just five innings following his prep season. Soon-to-be 19-years-old, Petty has a ton of development ahead of him. Refinement of pitches and continued command adjustments will always be part of the process when selecting a prep arm.
For Cincinnati, Petty’s path is not unlike one they may soon be cashing in on. Hunter Greene, taken in the same draft as Royce Lewis, had similar attributes when selected. Greene was praised for his triple-digit fastball, as was Petty, and there may be parallels in how their new prospect is brought along.
 
Knowing how barren the starting pitching market had gotten in free agency, it seemed inevitable Minnesota would acquire an arm via trade. Depth was a need in the rotation, but so too was a top-tier arm. Cautious in what to expect or maybe more, what needed to be given up, this seems like a significant win for Derek Falvey. Petty has a high ceiling, but there’s nothing more volatile than a prep arm. Getting a starter of Gray’s caliber for what likely amounts to two seasons and not dipping into other areas of the farm system is great negotiating.
 
The front office still has work to do, and there’s money to be spent, but this move should be seen as a significant come-up.
MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email

No American League starter with at least 200 innings pitched over the last two seasons has a lower ERA than Chris Bassitt. Even then, the most intriguing starter for the Athletics is Frankie Montas. 
THE PLAYER
Montas, 28, is coming off a terrific season where he posted a 3.37 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.37 FIP in an AL-leading 32 starts. Montas bounced back from a forgettable 2020 to set career highs in innings (187), strikeouts (207), and Wins Above Replacement (3.7). 
Traded three times in as many years, Montas is no stranger to changing organizations. The Red Sox signed him as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 and traded him to the White Sox in 2013. 
Chicago then moved him to the Dodgers in a three-team deal to acquire Todd Frazier in 2015. Finally, Montas settled in with Oakland after another deal just eight months later. Jharel Cotton, whom the Twins just claimed, was also a part of that deal. 
After a tumultuous start to his career, Montas finally hit his stride in 2019 with a terrific 2.70 ERA and 2.90 through his first 15 starts. Then, more adversity. MLB suspended Montas for 80 games after he tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He returned for one start in September but was ineligible for the postseason.
Montas has a high-spin, upper 90s fastball that he could work up in the zone more. Like Bassitt, he overuses a mediocre-to-poor sinker. His splitter is terrific, with an expected batting average of .134 at a whiff rate over 50%.
Montas’ splitter was the fourth-best in baseball in 2021 and produced the highest swing-and-miss rate among starters. Lefties destroyed his sinker, hinting that he needs to up the usage of that nasty split. 
He’s already excellent against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .295 On-Base Percentage and .660 OPS in 2021. There’s more to unlock here.
THE COST
Montas is under contract for two more seasons with an estimated salary of $5.2 million in his second year of arbitration. With a raise in 2023, Montas is probably holding a two-year, $13-15M price tag. 
Unlike Sean Manaea and Bassitt, who are free agents after 2022, Montas’ two remaining arbitration years theoretically double his value. If the Athletics are serious about resetting, it’s fair to assume they’d be looking for close-to-the-majors players in return. 
According to MLB Trade Simulators, an imperfect tool, the Twins would need to part with a value that equates to a package of Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach. If Montas replicates his 2021 season for the next two years, that’s a fair price to pay. 
The enticing part of this deal is the upside. Montas, like Luis Castillo, is in his prime and harnesses some of the best stuff in the majors. With a few tweaks, the Twins could oversee a complete breakout from the promising right-hander. 
What do you think? Should the Twins pursue Frankie Montas? Comment below!
FOR MORE TWINS CONTENT:
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email