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  • 3 Reasons the Twins Farm System Ranking Continues to Drop

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    The Twins farm system continues to drop in national rankings, so should fans be concerned about the organization's future? Here are three reasons why the system continues to drop.

    Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

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    National rankings of a team's farm systems can be taken with a grain of salt. A lot of hope and high expectations are tied to the team's top prospects, but most fans will focus on whether or not the big-league team is consistently winning. Front offices must find a balance between building homegrown talent and trading for pieces that can help the current roster. 

    Baseball America updated its farm system rankings based on changes from this year's draft and the trade deadline. Minnesota's system ranked 25th, the team's lowest ranking since 2017. Baseball American and MLB Pipeline have three Twins prospects in their top 100, including Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and Emmanuel Rodriguez. So, why did the Twins drop so much?

    Trades
    Minnesota was active at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing away some of the organization's most improved prospects. Spencer Steer, Cade Povich, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steven Hajjar were all top-30 prospects in the system. Last winter, the Twins also traded Chase Petty, the team's 2021 first-round pick, to acquire Sonny Gray. Losing that kind of talent will hurt any organization's farm system ranking. Luckily, there are some obvious reasons why Minnesota's ranking dropped. 

    Under 25 Big-League Players
    When looking at the health of an organization, it's essential to look at young players that are no longer prospects but are impacting the big-league roster. The Twins have gotten plenty of production this season from players that are 25 years old or younger. During his rookie campaign, Jose Miranda emerged as a middle-of-the-order bat. On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran completely altered how the team approaches late-inning pitching situations. However, the list of players that are 25 or younger doesn't stop there. 

    Gilberto Celestino, a 23-year-old, has allowed the Twins to give Byron Buxton more regular days off from center field. Cole Sands, Josh Winder, and Jovani Moran have impacted the team's rotation and bullpen. Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have shown how good their bats can be when they are healthy. Even regulars like Ryan Jeffers and Luis Arraez are in their age-25 season. Obviously, the Twins will need to continue to see continued development from these players while they help the team win. 

    Injuries and Underperformance
    Injuries to key prospects are another reason the team's ranking continues to drop. Royce Lewis, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Matt Canterino are all out for the year. Lewis was already impacting the big-league roster before undergoing his second ACL surgery in the last two seasons. Rodriguez had a breakout season before suffering a knee injury on a slide. Canterino's elbow health has been an issue throughout his professional career, and the hope is that Tommy John surgery will get him back on track. All three players should return at some point during the 2023 season. 

    Multiple top prospects have also underperformed during the 2022 campaign. Austin Martin was widely considered one of the organization's top prospects after he was acquired as part of the Jose Berrios trade. In 65 Double-A games, he is hitting .244/.372/.306 (.678) with 11 extra-base hits. Minnesota added Jordan Balazovic to the 40-man roster last winter, but he has struggled throughout the 2022 season. In 15 Triple-A appearances, he has a 9.26 ERA with a 2.17 WHIP across 45 2/3 innings. Both of these players have seen their prospect stock drop significantly. 

    Luckily, the Twins are keeping their winning window open despite the perceived talent drop in the farm system. Minnesota's trades have added controllable talent to the big-league roster, and the team has plenty of young talent up-and-down the roster. 

    Are you concerned about the farm system's drop in national rankings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    13 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Everyone!? 

    How about one? Just one starting pitcher in year 6 who can throw 120+ innings and be at least a back end rotation staple. I mean talk about setting a low bar....

    What makes you think the Twins haven't got that with Ryan? It's also a super convenient complaint because god forbid two young pitchers are injured. That never happens to any team but the failure Twins.

    This is getting really grating. I know everyone is upset, but the pitchers, particularly the young pitchers haven't been the ones losing the games, it's been the offense. The first and second year pitchers are almost exclusively this season's only success stories. Complaining about EVERY aspect of the team just to make sure everyone knows you don't like what the team is doing is a poor argument. It's also OK to shift the complaints when one area improves and another starts failing.

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    Brandon

    Brandon 2,195

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    23 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

    Ryan, Duran, Winder, Jax, Ober, Sands?

    This sounds like my kids yelling about there not being any cookies in the house after they just got done finishing off a carton of Oreos.

    Stashak, Alcala, Moran, and kinda Smeltzer too.

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    LastOnePicked

    LastOnePicked 1,796

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    • Posted

    7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

    The first and second year pitchers are almost exclusively this season's only success stories.

    Jose Miranda would like a word.

    C'mon, there's no question that the Twins have struggled and continue to struggle to develop pitching. This was supposed to be the year of the "pipeline," but there are still no standouts and no one you'd put much stock in for 2023 beyond Duran. That's a big problem - and it's not a problem every team has.

     

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    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 4,113

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

    What makes you think the Twins haven't got that with Ryan? It's also a super convenient complaint because god forbid two young pitchers are injured. That never happens to any team but the failure Twins.

    This is getting really grating. I know everyone is upset, but the pitchers, particularly the young pitchers haven't been the ones losing the games, it's been the offense. The first and second year pitchers are almost exclusively this season's only success stories. Complaining about EVERY aspect of the team just to make sure everyone knows you don't like what the team is doing is a poor argument. It's also OK to shift the complaints when one area improves and another starts failing.

    Ryan isn't a developmental success. He threw a whopping 9 innings at AAA and was immediately called up post trade. Again, great trade, but he was MLB ready when the Twins got their hands on him. God forbid two pitchers are injured? C'mon...that's not even close to what I've said.

    Bringing up an inconsistent offense is whataboutism. It doesn't have any bearing on pitching development. If the expectation that the Twins would have at least developed one reliable backend guy by this point is unreasonable, then we've moved the goalposts too far. 

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    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 1,313

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

    Jose Miranda would like a word.

    C'mon, there's no question that the Twins have struggled and continue to struggle to develop pitching. This was supposed to be the year of the "pipeline," but there are still no standouts and no one you'd put much stock in for 2023 beyond Duran. That's a big problem - and it's not a problem every team has.

     

    Three of the top twenty rookies in MLB this season sure sounds like standouts to me.

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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I actually like the Twins minor league bats, it's a good mix of high end potential and solid floors. Brooks Lee was an excellent draft pick (mlbpipeline ranked him #33 overall!), Wallner is close and might let us move on from Kepler, Royce Lewis looked like the real deal before his injury, and Rodriguez and Urbina are a long way away but could be absolute studs. I'm still a big fan of Martin, an on-base machine, which I think is what teams are realizing they need to get back to, and Julien and Noah Miller are also good at getting on base. I'm not quite as good with farm systems as I was a few years ago, but I feel that the team has some really good upside with the bats.

    But the pitching, ugh. We just keep hoping but there doesn't feel like there is much upside. Bunch of AAAA/long reliever/4-5 inning starter stuff in the system.

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    TwinsDr2021

    TwinsDr2021 1,828

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    16 hours ago, Brandon said:

    Stashak, Alcala, Moran, and kinda Smeltzer too.

    Are you trying to be funny here? Stashak(28) has 72 MLB innings and has 9 holds in 4 years, Moran is in the minors, Alcala (27) looks like there is potential but has pitched 87.2 innings has 1 save, 11 holds and 5 blown saves. (and some innings from Winder)

    The Twins success has come been 126 innings from Ober, 53 innings from Duran and that is pretty much it, all the rest have basically come from trades.

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    DJL44

    DJL44 3,265

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 8/21/2022 at 5:36 PM, Linus said:

    The vaunted pitching pipeline is turning out to be a garden hose. 

    Part of the problem is they are incredibly reliant on the MLB draft to fill the pitching pipeline. They are getting nothing from their international scouting.

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    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 9,100

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    On 8/21/2022 at 9:43 AM, tony&rodney said:

    The drop in rankings is only concerning if one forgets that the Twins have a fair nucleus of young players as the post notes. While we can hope that Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and even Emmanuel Rodriguez are stars soon, the Twins are reasonably set with Jeffers, Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda, Celestino, and Larnach, while we also have veterans still with some talent like Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton. The Twins could use a stronger catcher and a superstar corner outfielder but they are ok for now. I do think Palacios can play shortstop in MLB and that Wallner could be a fair DH/OF in a few years. I'm not real concerned about the hitting.

    The biggest problem with some of the Twins pitching prospects has been their struggles with command. If you watch Balazovic, for example, you see a guy with all the pitches or stuff but he is missing the ability to repeat mechanics (command and control) as well as seeming to get frustrated with his pitches. However, pitching is really difficult and he could still develop into a fine starter. This could be quick or take a few years. Maturity in life comes differently for all of us, in our personal lives as well as in our work and pleasures. So it goes with athletes too and I do think Balazovic can be a very good starting pitcher. One of the things that Cleveland does is get their pitching prospects some time in The Show to see where they must adapt when they invariably return to the minors to work on their sequences. They also use some of these young pitchers in relief before they move to the rotation.We saw this with Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, and Quantrilll, and Sam Hentges may be transitioning next. The Twins have some guys but health is important. Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Varland, and Woods Richardson need to step forward. If they can we can forget where the Twins rank with their prospects.

    I am as big of a Ryan Jeffers fan as almost anyone on TD, except for maybe his mom, and I think the Twins need to find a better complement (larger share) to him in the Catcher time share.

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    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 9,100

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    22 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Ryan isn't a developmental success. He threw a whopping 9 innings at AAA and was immediately called up post trade. Again, great trade, but he was MLB ready when the Twins got their hands on him. God forbid two pitchers are injured? C'mon...that's not even close to what I've said.

    Bringing up an inconsistent offense is whataboutism. It doesn't have any bearing on pitching development. If the expectation that the Twins would have at least developed one reliable backend guy by this point is unreasonable, then we've moved the goalposts too far. 

    Ober is a pretty good home grown 4th/5th starter. Injuries happen, but he’s one, isn’t he? if the response is injury, then has any team ever developed a starter who’s never been injured?
     

    Winder is close and seems likely to be better than back end of rotation- TBD

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    Brandon

    Brandon 2,195

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    10 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    Are you trying to be funny here? Stashak(28) has 72 MLB innings and has 9 holds in 4 years, Moran is in the minors, Alcala (27) looks like there is potential but has pitched 87.2 innings has 1 save, 11 holds and 5 blown saves. (and some innings from Winder)

    The Twins success has come been 126 innings from Ober, 53 innings from Duran and that is pretty much it, all the rest have basically come from trades.

    I am super serial......man bear pig......

    but in truth these players are developed and have potential.  Moran has pitched well up here and has a killer changeup.  Stashak has solid numbers for a middle reliever and Alcala was coming on strong last season before being hurt this one.  THese are the guys at the end of the "we developed them spectrum"  but these are developed pitchers from our system.  

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    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 4,113

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    Ober is a pretty good home grown 4th/5th starter. Injuries happen, but he’s one, isn’t he? if the response is injury, then has any team ever developed a starter who’s never been injured?
     

    Winder is close and seems likely to be better than back end of rotation- TBD

    To be clear I'm not writing either of them off completely here, and they're one part of what I see as a larger problem.

    I think you're downplaying Ober's injury history a little. 108 innings last year (the most he's ever thrown) seems like the exception to the rule, and that's not a viable SP workload even by today's modest standards. We tend to forget it, but he began, and finished last year on the IL too. He's 27, and this year will be his third time in four full professional seasons where he'll finish with 70 something or fewer IP. None of this touches on whether he'll stick from a talent standpoint either. 

    Idk what to do with Winder. His MLB exposure is limited; I don't see much value in picking that apart, but the shoulder thing scares me. 3x in 1 year is a problem that doesn't seem like it's going away without intervention, and anytime we're talking a shoulder or an elbow....yeah....

    Maybe these guys hit your ceilings. They'll certainly get every opportunity to fail; that's the corner this FO has painted themselves into. 

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