Who Should Be the Twins Leadoff Hitter in 2021?

With Arraez in the lineup - Arraez leading off

With Arraez not in the lineup - Polanco leading off

Lead off ratings: Arraez >  Polanco  > Buxton > Garver

Please put Kepler at 4 - not that I really like him there, but so far we do not have a number 4 and his hitting is more suited for that spot.  Arraez is a natural, beyond him I don't care.

Arraez 100% without a doubt!

It should be Arraez, but Rocco will likely choose Kepler.....

My vote goes to Arraez. Keep him in the lineup at least five games a week and let him get on base at the top of the order.

Depends on who's playing that day, who the opposing pitcher is, which Twin is hot, or cold, with the bat, what Rocco had for breakfast, the price of stadium hot dogs, etc.

If there's one thing we've learned about Rocco it's that he's flexible with his line-ups. Count on seeing all these guys getting a few swings at lead-off. Including La Tortuga.

My opinion is we need Arraez's bat in there as much as possible. But Baldelli will put anyone that he thinks analytically fits.

Arraez makes the most sense to me, but I wonder if there’s something deep in the data that shows Kepler leading off actually makes the most sense for the lineup as a whole.

It's an interesting question. I lean towards Polanco, which then lets you drop kepler in 4th behind Donaldson & Cruz and in front of Sano to break up the righties a bit. You could then stick Garver in 6th, with Kirilloff 7th ahead of Buxton & Simmons on days when Arraez doesn't play.

If you bat Kepler leadoff (and he does well at it, despite the low BA) then you're looking at a regular order of Donaldson, Cruz, Sano, Garver/Jeffers...which would scare the bejeezus out of a lefty but might be a set up for failure against the righties.

For me it comes down to who do you want to have the most ABs during the game. There is 2 outs in 9th and 9th place batter gets on, who do you want to hit. The first batter in lineup may only lead off an inning once a game. With that said, I still take Arraez, going to see plenty of pitches leading off game and most likely to get on in other situations.

Personally I like Arraez at leadoff, but understand why Twins have gone the non-traditional approach.  What I like about Arraez at leadoff is he normally gives you good long at-bats without giving away anything.  He gets on base at high clip.  He does lack speed, but we never steal anyways.  

The Kepler option gives you good chance for extra base hit, but he also loves to attack first pitches, which is not traditionally what one wants for leadoff guys.  However, times are a changing and the Twins love to buck the traditional roles with this FO and manager. 

Personally I like Arraez at leadoff, but understand why Twins have gone the non-traditional approach.  What I like about Arraez at leadoff is he normally gives you good long at-bats without giving away anything.  He gets on base at high clip.  He does lack speed, but we never steal anyways.  

 

The Kepler option gives you good chance for extra base hit, but he also loves to attack first pitches, which is not traditionally what one wants for leadoff guys.  However, times are a changing and the Twins love to buck the traditional roles with this FO and manager. 

I kind of chuckled a bit at the thought of Arraez being the "traditional" pick.

He is in a sort of manner (the recent wave of thought), but to me Buxton screams more as the "traditional" pick due to his speed.

But yeah, I like slotting Arraez at the top of the order.  He takes pitches, works the count, and has a high OBP.

Buxton 

Kepler

Cruz

Sano

Kirilloff

Donaldson

Polanco

Catcher

Simmons

Subject to change on who is pitching and who is hot but I would give the top 2 at least 15 games off the start to see how they do.

... there's nothing wrong with a leadoff guy driving himself in with one swing. ...

Yeah there is -- no one is on base. It's a wasted RBI opportunity.

IMO, should be Arrez when he plays. Especially if Donaldson is going to remain in the 2 spot. I like Polanco as an alternate if he's back to his old self.

I appreciate the BOOM Kepler can bring to the spot, but I think his LH power needs to hit lower.

I’m firmly in the camp that says you fill the lead off spot with your best hitter, because whoever leads off gets the most plate appearances.

It would be unconventional for sure, but I’d like to see Cruz or Donaldson there.

What's the closest example you can think of to a team having done this?

 

Off the top of my head it’s rare, but it looks like the Giants tried it with Willie Mays late in his career.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1969/04/21/leading-man-wondrous-willie

I think it’s more of a theoretical stance than something teams have commonly done.

I asked because by now it's a sabrmetric chestnut, and yet not even a last-place team with a lame-duck manager has said "nothing to lose, let's stack the batting order by OPS, see if there's anything to it." The notion that you give your best hitters the most PAs doesn't seem controversial, and yet so often you see a mediocre guy batting second because of his "bat control." (If the bat control is so good, why isn't he hitting .400?)

 

Batting Cruz lead-off could have negative impact on clubhouse chemistry, I suppose, if he took the attitude "I'm a power hitter, I want men on base in front of me, no offense intended to the #8 and #9 guys." He, and other great hitters, are only human.

 

Yeah, like anything it would need buy in from the players. FWIW, it looks like the Cubs were going to do it with Kris Bryant last year for the reason I give in my earlier post.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-kris-bryant-leadoff-20200219-jvvizmn7qvcl3eifpughxneqai-story.html%3foutputType=amp