Where Do the Twins Depth Arms Stand?

I'd boot Thorpe, Smeltzer and Barnes off the 40 man. Gant and Stashak to the bullpen. Dobnak and Jax to AAA.

I'm torn on Stashak. I'd be bad if they DFA him just to see him revert back to his usual self, somewhat like what happened to Littell. But does he have enough upside to be worth keeping around? It seems unlikely he becomes a high leverage reliever here... though give him to the Rays and he'll become their closer.

Thorpe and Smeltzer can go, neither have the stuff and Thorpe is brittle as heck and is out of options. I've had enough of the soft-tossing lefty starters. Jax and Barnes are debatable, but I don't think they are MLB starters and can be DFA'd without many problems. They could be worth having as rotational depth in AAA, but is that worth a 40 man spot?

It will be a long season if we count on any of the pitchers listed as primary contributors. 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'd boot Thorpe, Smeltzer and Barnes off the 40 man. Gant and Stashak to the bullpen. Dobnak and Jax to AAA.

That is pretty much my feeling as well.  I was going to maybe even bump Stashak from the 40 man but seeing that 15 K9 this year made me think otherwise.  There are some tough decisions to be made especially on the pitching side so he might not make it but even though the WHIP and ERA were bad this year mainly due to control problems he could break out next year if healthy.  Would hate to see that happen if ends up on another team.

Hard to know how to rate guys you haven't seen all year in Thorpe, and Smeltzer but from what I have seen I don't think they offer enough upside to keep on the 40 man.  I think the same holds true for Barnes.  I would hope we have better arms to save for the 40 man than those three but again will have to wait and see. 

They just traded for Gant so they are not going to get rid of him right away and he has some intriguing stuff.  They just paid Dobnak so again unlikely to get rid of him right away.  I go back and forth on Jax but I do like him.  If he could just get his stuff to play up just a little more he would be a great 5th starter.  He will be a borderline add IMO.

Like I said tough decision's to make and I would guess they lose a pen arm or two that they wish they could have kept but that is the way things work.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'd boot Thorpe, Smeltzer and Barnes off the 40 man. Gant and Stashak to the bullpen. Dobnak and Jax to AAA.

Agree with the first three, but I think Gant sticks as a 5th starter as well as Dobnak and Stashak and Jax go to AAA

It's hard to see Thorpe, Smeltzer or Barnes as MLB starting pitchers. Smeltzer might offer some Long relief of LH Bullpen value, but again it seems like that could be replaced with pitchers released from other Organizations or Rule 5 pickups.  I owuld not put any of those 3 on the 40 man roster unless we have open spots and it seems unlikely that they will be selected in the Rule 5 draft. We should be ale to keep Barnes and Smeltzer in the organization with Minor League contracts with an invitation to Spring training and have them in AAA to start the season. No big deal if one of them is lost. They will get another chance next year with the twins due to the injury or ineffectiveness of others. 

Jax and Stashack are tougher calls because I could see one of them him being drafted in the Rule 5 Draft by a poor team.  I would leave them both on the 40 man. Gant may be our 5th starter next year and, if he isn't, he will be in the Twins bullpen or at the top of the AAA rotation. He stays on the 40 man. Same analysis for Dobnak.   Unfortunately, theis means the RH pitchers stay and the LH pitchers go. Not good. Still, their performance seems to compel this result.  

For those of us not as well versed as others, who needs to be added to the 40 man roster after the season that isn't on the 40 man roster now? Is there a site where this information is available? 

If none of these pitchers make it on the roster next season it will mean that we really are getting better.  If they are part of the team we have not climbed back out of the hole we are in. 

I think Thorpe and Barnes get pushed off the 40-man. Smeltzer...some of it will depend on his injury status, but I still think he's got some value. He'll be a tougher call. Jax is a depth piece to me and a fringe 40-man guy and if it came down to it, I'd keep Smeltzer over Jax. (same age, but Smeltzer has been better especially at keeping the ball in the park and not handing out the free passes. Small sample on both, so it's not an easy call)

Gant I think goes to the bullpen next season; it's why we traded for him. Dobnak will get a shot at the 5th spot, but probably starts in AAA as the 6th starter if they don't try him as the long man again. Stashak all depends on health: if he's healthy he's competing for a spot in the bullpen and deserves to have the chance. If he's not healthy then he won't stick.

Twins are going to cut someone off the 40-man this year that will probably do ok somewhere else. YMMV on how much that's worthy of freaking out over.

There were lots of injuries for pitchers this year.  So what I would do is let Thorpe walk.  He has had other issues outside of injuries and I think its likely time for him to move on. 

Smeltzer I would take off the 40 man roster but try to sign him to a minor league/ split deal with a major league spring training invite.  He seems to have enough to be a long reliever / spot starter.  I would give him the chance to reclaim that role.  

Gant and Dobnak are 5th starter / long reliever

Barnes is back in AAA and off the 40 man if we need the space.  

Jax is a reliever or in AAA as a 6,7,8th starter.  Stays on the 40 man.

Stashak gets another shot.  again this comes down to 40 man roster spots available.  I would offer the same thing I offered Smeltzer, a split contract with spring training invite.

That is 3 remaining on the 40 man with a potential 4th and 2 for sure off it.  

Ted, understand importance of depth, but for a contender, it must be quality depth - pitchers who can step in and at the very least, give the team at least a reasonable chance of a W.  Unfortunately, there is not one on this list who seem able to do this, at least based on their minor league /brief major league performance.  At best, these are all AAAA players who will do nothing to move the needle.  #6-10 "starters" will have to either come from the bargain basement bin or from our strong current prospect list, e.g, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Balazovic, even Varland.

With that said, if August/September performance is a decent indicator of future performance, Ober and Ryan look like pretty good bets to at least be #4/#5 starters next year, and Pineda should be resigned to slot in the middle.  I for one have a little more confidence now in next year's rotation than I did at the trade deadline, even though the loss of Maeda is huge.  The big question is whether this FO has the chops to lasso two top starters?  They have the payroll space to add one of the top FA starters and excess positional players/top prospects to land a #2 starter via trade.  With an improving pen and a couple of astute moves, I feel contending in 2022 is more of a possibility now than 2 months ago,   but relying on the names above should not be in the plan going forward.

13 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

 

Twins are going to cut someone off the 40-man this year that will probably do ok somewhere else. YMMV on how much that's worthy of freaking out over.

Question for you.  I am too old to be on social media (or give a damn about it) so I have no clue what YMMV means.  Please translate into English.  Thanks.

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

The big question is whether this FO has the chops to lasso two top starters?  They have the payroll space to add one of the top FA starters and excess positional players/top prospects to land a #2 starter via trade. 

This is the crux of whether the Twins can return to relevance next season. One FA signing ($20-30m) and one trade to complement Pineda, Ober, and Ryan would be the minimum expectation.  I'm holding out for two trades and a significant free agent signing to bolster the starting pitching staff for next year.

Remember that the front office cannot just "lasso" two top starters.  The pitchers have to be willing to play in Minnesota.  Recent history has suggested that many top pitchers are using free agency to move closer to their roots or to fulfill a need to be near horses.

Terry://Remember that the front office cannot just "lasso" two top starters. The pitchers have to be willing to play in Minnesota. Recent history has suggested that many top pitchers are using free agency to move closer to their roots or to fulfill a need to be near horses.

C'mon Terry!  This is a lame excuse for past inaction.  Sure, there are guys like Wheeler, Ohtani, etc. who prefer certainn locales, but FA is all about the money.  This ownership has to open their wallet, authorize the FO to spend what they think they need this offseason, and then the Wonder Boys must decide who among the FAs they need to head up a rotation on a contending team, followed by a quick strike(as opposed to waiting for the dust to settle to pick up a bargain) and be willing to overpay for the right pitcher.  Aren't you tired of all the feints this and past FOs have made to "bid" on a desired FA, with the all-too-predictable non-result.?  

3 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Terry://Remember that the front office cannot just "lasso" two top starters. The pitchers have to be willing to play in Minnesota. Recent history has suggested that many top pitchers are using free agency to move closer to their roots or to fulfill a need to be near horses.

C'mon Terry!  This is a lame excuse for past inaction.  Sure, there are guys like Wheeler, Ohtani, etc. who prefer certainn locales, but FA is all about the money.  This ownership has to open their wallet, authorize the FO to spend what they think they need this offseason, and then the Wonder Boys must decide who among the FAs they need to head up a rotation on a contending team, followed by a quick strike(as opposed to waiting for the dust to settle to pick up a bargain) and be willing to overpay for the right pitcher.  Aren't you tired of all the feints this and past FOs have made to "bid" on a desired FA, with the all-too-predictable non-result.?  

Which free agent pitcher do you think the Pohlads should commit 5 years and 125 to 150 million of their dollars to?

That is the question. Who gets the 4-5 year $20-$25 million a year contract? If you aren’t willing to pay that, you cannot expect to get a tier 1 or even a tier 2 starter. That is why we no longer have Berrios. We didn’t offer that kind of money and he will get there or more when he becomes a free agent. And that’s for a tier 2 starter like Berrios.

I would go high twice, on short term, one long-term. For the short term, I would offer Verlander and Greinke each 20 to 25m a year on a 2 year deal given their age. That maybe a tough sell because they are going to want to go to a team they see is being contenders in their last two years. Verlander Is a little younger so he may want and get more years. Greinke is my target - Older guy, doesn’t like the limelight. If that doesn’t work you drop the money and pivot to Cory Kluber or Robbie Ray.

Then, you sign a younger younger pitcher to a four or five year $20-$25 million a year deal. Best choices are Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rondon. Push hard to get one of them. Those two guys head the rotation, Pineda comes back at somewhere between 8 and $10 million a year for a couple of years, and Ober and Ryan fill out the rotation. There will be plenty of opportunities in 2022 for other guys to get a shot do the injury and there isn’t anybody else in the system that is shown they are worthy of a full year shot at this point.

How do I pay for this? That is where all of the off-season money goes. We sign a stopgap glove first shortstop like Iglesias or Galvis or even Simmons to a $5 or less million deal, and we run with the bullpen and lineup we have. Yes, that means picking up Colome’s option and also signing Rogers to a three-year $20-$25 million backloaded deal. It’s back loaded so that Rogers salary jumps when the older starter comes off the books.  Overall, this commits another roughly $50-70 million a year to the payroll, which should put us between $140-160 million If my memory is right on what’s committed to next year, etc. If necessary, we trade Kepler and/or Sano as part of a package for young pitching to reduce payroll so we can spend the money on major-league pitching.

I think this approach makes us competitive next year without putting an unrealistic strain on payroll. It also gives us options as guys develop over the next two or three years. 

http://Which free agent pitcher do you think the Pohlads should commit 5 years and 125 to 150 million of their dollars to?

There are 4 FA pitchers who are young enough to slot in as top starters :  Rodon, Stroman, Ray, and Gausman.  They deserve at least 4-5 year, $20-25MM/yr contracts.  Frankly, I can't see the Sox, Jays, or Giants not resigning their guys, which leaves Stroman as most likely available.  Another arm I'd be all over is Thor but consensus seems that Mets will offer him a QO.  If none of these guys are possible, then I'd go after more of a stopgap like Greinke or Verlander and hope that our young bloods would be ready to lead the staff in 2023.

That's it for starter FA signings.  There are too many other needs on this team to go big on two big FAs.  At least one closer-type should be signed(Kimbrel would be my choice @ $15MM/yr).  A second proven reliever in the $5-10MM range would be a nice add, given Rogers injuries and Duffy's wildness.  As many have said, signing a FA SS would be nice, but clearly we can't sign one of the top ones, given our multiple pitching needs, so either we get lucky with someone like Baez willing to sign for a modest short term or we go with a fielder-first FA.

While I agree with LA Vikes on need for a #2 rotation arm, reality says we have to go the trade route.  A combination of Arraez, Garver or Jeffers or Kepler, and one of our good MI  or pitching prospects should pry a young major league with #2 potential.  Levine should already be talking to Miami who has an abundance of pitching and holes in their lineup, perhaps San Diego who might shed someone like Clevinger, Snell or Darvish, or even the Dodgers with a huge surplus of both top end arms as well as A prospects.  It can be done.  Just not confident that the current org. up to the task.

59 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

might I suggest urban dictionary?
 

Your Mileage May Vary

every car commercial had that phrase when quoting fuel efficiency because consumers would complain that they never got the states mileage.

It has now become “everyone has their own opinions”

Thanks.

21 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

For those of us not as well versed as others, who needs to be added to the 40 man roster after the season that isn't on the 40 man roster now? Is there a site where this information is available? 

This is the best site for it: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins

Under the "Options / Or Rule5 Status" you can see what year the player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. By my opinion, I think Lewis, Miranda, Winder, Enlow, and Sands are locks, while there are a handful more who are decent candidates to be protected.

We only need to add 2 starters for next season.  Pineda is 1 on a 2 year 24 million.  And the other can come on a 20-25 AAV contract or trade.  That gives us a rotation of 1.  FA or trade pitcher, 2.  Pineda, 3.  Gant, 4.  Ober, 5.  Ryan with Dobnak as 6 and then Jax, Barnes, Smeltzer.....Around the Allstar break or even before.... Balazovich Winder and Richardson-Woods could be ready.  Lots of depth and pitchers who can hold their own. 

Sign Chris Taylor for SS.  Then watch a healthy lineup score 7-8 runs a night and win games 7-5

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

We only need to add 2 starters for next season.  Pineda is 1 on a 2 year 24 million.  And the other can come on a 20-25 AAV contract or trade.  That gives us a rotation of 1.  FA or trade pitcher, 2.  Pineda, 3.  Gant, 4.  Ober, 5.  Ryan with Dobnak as 6 and then Jax, Barnes, Smeltzer.....Around the Allstar break or even before.... Balazovich Winder and Richardson-Woods could be ready.  Lots of depth and pitchers who can hold their own. 

Sign Chris Taylor for SS.  Then watch a healthy lineup score 7-8 runs a night and win games 7-5

Yikes. That rotation would equate to a 90 loss season. 

On 9/24/2021 at 2:32 PM, bean5302 said:

I'd boot Thorpe, Smeltzer and Barnes off the 40 man. Gant and Stashak to the bullpen. Dobnak and Jax to AAA.

I don't know that I'm so quick to move on from Smeltzer or Barnes, but I sure would like to see them pull a Bailey Ober and add a couple of clicks to their fastballs this winter.

Barnes in particular looks okay-ish on paper, but you can see even without watching him that he lacks a real put-away pitch. A little extra giddy-up on his fastball might be enough to keep him around as a 5th starter or long relief guy heading into next season.

Thorpe isn't and hasn't ever really been a major league pitcher. I'd love to hand his roster spot to a Winder or a Balazovic.

5 hours ago, mike8791 said:

http://Which free agent pitcher do you think the Pohlads should commit 5 years and 125 to 150 million of their dollars to?

There are 4 FA pitchers who are young enough to slot in as top starters :  Rodon, Stroman, Ray, and Gausman.  They deserve at least 4-5 year, $20-25MM/yr contracts.  Frankly, I can't see the Sox, Jays, or Giants not resigning their guys, which leaves Stroman as most likely available.  Another arm I'd be all over is Thor but consensus seems that Mets will offer him a QO.  If none of these guys are possible, then I'd go after more of a stopgap like Greinke or Verlander and hope that our young bloods would be ready to lead the staff in 2023.

That's it for starter FA signings.  There are too many other needs on this team to go big on two big FAs.  At least one closer-type should be signed(Kimbrel would be my choice @ $15MM/yr).  A second proven reliever in the $5-10MM range would be a nice add, given Rogers injuries and Duffy's wildness.  As many have said, signing a FA SS would be nice, but clearly we can't sign one of the top ones, given our multiple pitching needs, so either we get lucky with someone like Baez willing to sign for a modest short term or we go with a fielder-first FA.

While I agree with LA Vikes on need for a #2 rotation arm, reality says we have to go the trade route.  A combination of Arraez, Garver or Jeffers or Kepler, and one of our good MI  or pitching prospects should pry a young major league with #2 potential.  Levine should already be talking to Miami who has an abundance of pitching and holes in their lineup, perhaps San Diego who might shed someone like Clevinger, Snell or Darvish, or even the Dodgers with a huge surplus of both top end arms as well as A prospects.  It can be done.  Just not confident that the current org. up to the task.

I really think the main difference between us is that I say sign  two free agent starters  and you’re using some of that money to sign relief, and then trading for that second starter. I think either approach works well. The key is getting two guys to handle rotation. I don’t think our needs in relief are as great. I think we may have actually found a decent group in the second half. If we go to the trade route, Miami seems illogical partner. I live in LA, and I seriously doubt if the Dodgers will trade pitching so I don’t think either they or the Padres are likely to trade anyone any good. My only other disagreement is I think we would be buying high on Robbie Ray if we signed him and I don’t think he is anywhere near as good as the other guys you mentioned.  But Hey, I would be happy if your plan came to fruition. 

I'm going to treat this thread a bit differently that the BP OP because for starters, no pun intended, there are far fewer options/names to consider.

First of all I'm eliminating both Stashak and Thorpe from this discussion. I'm eliminating Stashak because he has already reached the "if healthy again, he could re-establish value in the BP and has already moved on from a rotation spot option" part of his career. I am also, grudgingly, moving Thorpe to the "too much has happened and his arm just never came back from surgery and now he has to transition to throwing as hard as he can, and use his other stuff, to try to carve out a role in the BP" part of HIS career. Sucks!

DOBNAK:

Like many pitchers, and many top prospects, injuries completely foiled his 2021. I believe the FO missed the mark on him to begin the season by ignoring his impressive ST and deferring to the veteran Shoemaker initially. It sounded like a good idea at the time, I guess, letting Dobber sit in the pen and trust in a Shoemaker rebound. But not every pitcher adapts to easily to such a change in roles. I just can't ignore his 2019 or what he did in 2020 for us and dismiss him for 2022. Believe me, I don't WANT to say this, but I could see a scenario where the Twins via FA and/or trade, pick up a pair of experienced SP and just trust Ryan, Ober and Dobnak to fill out the rest. I just think that's asking too much of 3 young arms. I believe the Twins will come up with 3 arms....more to come on that....and Dobber will compete with Ryan and Ober and someone will go to St Paul.

SMELTZER:

Yes he's a tremendous story! I wish him the best! But with so much young talent across the roster, I just don't think I can protect him. Previously, he's shown be can be a solid fill-in piece in the rotation and the pen. I'd love to have him back in a milb deal. 

BARNES:

I just don't there's enough STUFF to keep him unless he's the 39th/40th guy. I watched him closely his last start and saw high 80's and a couple low 90's FB and a couple really nice breaking and off speed pitches. Also so a few hung and crushed. I think he's done enough, shown enough, that if it turns out there is room, go ahead and protect him. Otherwise, expose him and see what happens. Love to have him back for depth and hope. 

GANT:

He's had SOME success as a SP in his career, and has looked surprisingly solid for the Twins thus far, starting almost out of necessity. What I think the Twins have is not some late bloomer, but a solid middle man who can be stretched out and fill-in, If they expect more than that, I think they've shot low. He could be a solid BP piece with versatility.

JAX:

Oh, what might have been! The Twins were confident the military was going to change their demands/restrictions and allow him to persue a professional career. But it took 2 1/2 years for that to happen and it probably happened too late for him to reach his potential. And yet, despite rather pedestrian numbers, he's actually been solid in his milb career and has been promoted aggressively by the Twins, albeit out of necessity this season. At the ML level, he's been quality the first time through the order. The Cubs game the other day he supposedly couldn't feel the ball for his FB. But his slider looked great. And I thought it was his secondary stuff that was the problem? As a back end SP option or maybe a quality middle RP option I like him and would absolutely protect and keep him.

I like Jax’s stuff.  Keep Gant. Thorpe, Barnes, and Smeltzer gone.   Dobnak is #5, 6, 7 or BP. Jax BP, Gant same as Dobnak