Twins Minor League Report (6/16): Wallner Blasts on Tough Night for Twins Farm

Looked like a nice crop of starters tonight but it was not their night. Headrick, Gipson-Long and Adams all had one of their poorest outings of the year.

Are they preparing Balazovic to be a relief pitcher?  He has not looked good in any role this year.

Took a peek at Sabato's year, and it looks like he's struggling again to make contact and the big surge he had upon promotion is looking like a small sample size mirage. Too bad, but I can say I'm surprised. His prospect stock has seriously declined, and deservedly so. 

Julien is a really interesting prospect: he's always on base, he has a little pop in his bat and it's going to be really interesting to see if he can maintain this kind of production as he rises in the system. He's got a bit of a log jam ahead of him with the MLB club...is he a potential trade chip? I wonder what other teams think of him as a prospect now.

Happy to see Gipson-Long pitching in AA it was a well deserved promotion with High A ERA at 1.99 and a WHIP of .93.  A tougher night for him at AA but he has the stuff to adjust.  Kind of surprised he isn't in the top 30 for prospects but I guess he doesn't have enough on the fastball to make it?

It looked like the strength of the system was pitching and I remember Keith Law saying something like he didn't think any of our pitchers had overly elite stuff or that it certainly didn't look better than most other teams for high end pitching prospects.  It looks like his take is looking more right than wrong right now IMO.  Balazovich can't find the strike zone and when he does is getting hit hard.  SWR has been OK but I wouldn't call his numbers elite.  Henriquez doesn't look ready for AAA.  Enlow is just getting back but hasn't been great. Sands looks like he might be better in the pen.  Varland has been one of the more consistent arms but still don't know that I would call him dominant just yet.  Canterino has looked dominant but given his arm issues looks more and more like a pen arm.  Strotman has been worse than I ever could have imagined even as a pen arm. Those are our best AA and AAA arms.

Unless things improve that pipeline might be a trickle at best.  I don't see anyone on here that looks like a Ryan or even a Winder type of pitcher so hopefully things change because IMO Cleveland and Chicago have more elite pitching than we do and Cleveland has an actual pitching pipeline and a young team right now.

Povich, Festa, Raya and Hajjar are guys to watch at the lower levels but they have a ways to go and could end up just averagish as well.  I know our pitching has improved over past years and the fact 3 of our 4 affiliates are battling for first place means we have balance and solid arms but where are the dominant arms?  Right now I don't see any.

Took a look at the Saints box score and found some good news.  Yes, Winder wasn't perfect, but his outing was much better than his first game last week.  Another start and he should be ready to return to the Twins.  Also took a look at Drew Strotman's season...ouch.  Has to be a leading candidate to be removed from the 40-man when the Twins next need to make a move.  Does he have any value as an extra piece to a trade next month?

And like jmlease1 above, love what Julien brings.  Kid was 1-2 last night with 3 walks and a stolen base.  Yes, he is striking out more than one would want, but it is a bit less than last year at a higher level.  Hopefully, he can get it down to twenty some percent by the time he reaches the Twins.  Give me a team of guys like Julien and that is a team that will be enjoyable to watch.

Who knows, but it feels like Balazovic might benefit from some R&R, because this strategy of having him pitch through whatever discomfort he is feeling is not working out.

1 hour ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

Who knows, but it feels like Balazovic might benefit from some R&R, because this strategy of having him pitch through whatever discomfort he is feeling is not working out.

Yeah. It seems bizarre to have him pitch through this. 

Is Gardenhire back managing the Saints?

They had such a nice run without him... ?

Boy, tough night on the farm.  I am not going to read too much into the pitching failures, especially for those guys who have been throwing well this summer.  And, Gipson-Long was probably a bit nervous about his first start at AA.  I think Winder will be fine long term--he has good stuff, and has performed in the past.  But, Balazovic is not right, whether due to injury or lack of control, he really is not throwing well.  If it is his leg, that would explain his control being off, but it is certainly a concern.  He has always been a prospect whose potential seems to outpace his performance.  Hopefully, he will start realizing his potential.  I still think Canterino is the closest to ready if he ever gets healthy.

42 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I wonder if Gossett's reassignment to Witchita indicates that SWR or Varland will get bumped to St. Paul once Winder rejoins the Twins.

The Saints stash of starters the big club needs in case of emergency has been really poor all season long. It would be really nice to get the guys with potential up to that level.

It would be nice if they would move both up IMO because those are the only two that look like they could possibly help the big club if they can handle that level.  They both are not on the 40 man but they will need to be at the end of the season anyway so if they look like a solution they could be added early.  

I know Rocco said they were encouraged by Sands last start but Balazovich and Henriquez don't look ready and haven't really improved so if Varland and or SWR can show something then maybe the Twins will have other options.  No way to find out though until they move them up. Those two look like the only potential reinforcements unless Canterino comes back but I have to believe it will be pen work for him if he does come back.   The rest of those guys look like wait until next year types IMO.

Still time for things to change with Sands, Balazovich and Henriquez but to this point I haven't seen much improvement and Sands and Balazovich have both struggled with minor injuries' that might be affecting them in major ways.  So might be lost years for them to some degree.  Have to wait and see but starting pitching help from the farm doesn't look good if you ask me.

19 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I've failed to understand the Henriquez hype.

This is all about age. He is 4 years younger than Winder and Strotman. He is the same age as SWR but pitching one level higher. He needs to improve and show some improvement this year just because he takes up a 40 man roster spot.

44 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

This is all about age. He is 4 years younger than Winder and Strotman. He is the same age as SWR but pitching one level higher. He needs to improve and show some improvement this year just because he takes up a 40 man roster spot.

Those are both good points.  21 is very young to be at AAA but to Nicksavikings point the Twins haven't done much to help him develop to this point.  While he has a good K9 for a 21 year old at AAA his walks have increased and his Home Run rate has increased as well which is what drives his ERA to higher levels than it should be.  I know he is at a higher level than last year but just like Strotman he seems to be pitching worse than he was before we got him.

You would like to think that the pitching coach\organization would be thinking hmmm he is giving up HR's on fastballs we should tweak that. Throw those less.  Throw them in a different spot.  Keep them down. Keep them up.  Whatever it takes to help him with HR suppression because everything else looks good. He literally has been giving up too many free passes and then giving up HR's on top of it.  Fix that and he might be a solution sooner rather than later.

Maybe he can't control his secondary's I don't know I haven't watched him much but I would have thought they would\could have done more to help him by now as you are right he is taking up a valuable 40 man spot so there is no time to lose to make him more valuable than he is right now.

Pitching at that level is hard, I get it and he is very young as well so plenty of time to get better. I think we all just thought he would be better than a 7.45 ERA and 1.63 WHIP given how he pitched last year and given how happy the Twins seemed to be getting him via trade.

Strotman was always a toss in piece in that trade. Expectations he was a valuable prospect were unreasonable in my opinion. When he was acquired from Tampa, I think a lot of members of the site saw the sparkly ERA/FIP and ignored the reasonability of that success and projectability of a guy who was issuing free passes like that. 

Last year Wes Johnson wanted Strotman to throw strikes instead of trying to pick at the zone because a 5+ BB/9 innings in the minors isn't going to be playable at the MLB level, but once Strotman started throwing strikes, hitters tee'd off on his pitches.

This year, hitters are driving Strotman's pitches pretty hard again and it's hard to tell if the .400 BABIP is a function of luck or just predictability. He's got a 50% GB rate (not reliable) on Fangraphs so there's reason to think he could eat some middle innings if he worked more on inducing weak contact and less on chasing strikeouts... but ahem... pitch-to-contact philosophies have their limits, too.

Considering how desperate the Twins were for pitchers at times this season and the fact he's already on the 40 man, it seems like Strotman is a leading candidate to clear 40 man roster space.

22 minutes ago, Dman said:

Those are both good points.  21 is very young to be at AAA but to Nicksavikings point the Twins haven't done much to help him develop to this point.  While he has a good K9 for a 21 year old at AAA his walks have increased and his Home Run rate has increased as well which is what drives his ERA to higher levels than it should be.  I know he is at a higher level than last year but just like Strotman he seems to be pitching worse than he was before we got him.

You would like to think that the pitching coach\organization would be thinking hmmm he is giving up HR's on fastballs we should tweak that. Throw those less.  Throw them in a different spot.  Keep them down. Keep them up.  Whatever it takes to help him with HR suppression because everything else looks good. He literally has been giving up too many free passes and then giving up HR's on top of it.  Fix that and he might be a solution sooner rather than later.

Maybe he can't control his secondary's I don't know I haven't watched him much but I would have thought they would\could have done more to help him by now as you are right he is taking up a valuable 40 man spot so there is no time to lose to make him more valuable than he is right now.

Pitching at that level is hard, I get it and he is very young as well so plenty of time to get better. I think we all just thought he would be better than a 7.45 ERA and 1.63 WHIP given how he pitched last year and given how happy the Twins seemed to be getting him via trade.

The Twins pitching coaches may well be working with Henriquez to throw pitches he doesn't normally throw or throw certain pitches (changeup) more often or change the approach by throwing pitches in different zones. If Henriquez doesn't develop the changeup and prove he can throw it often, he will not be a viable starter. Best to figure out what he brings to the table. Wes Johnson challenged Balazovic to throw his changeup far more frequently and in different counts last year and there were plenty of growing pains. MLB pitchers need to be able to throw multiple pitches at any count and for strikes or batters can wait for the right situation and know what's coming to punish it. Unless you're Mariano Rivera, that ends poorly for the guy on the bump.

To me, age is often irrelevant, like in this case. Henriquez is in his 5th year of minor leagues (4 years of competitive professional pitching) so it was required he be added to the 40 man to protect him. His promotion schedule wasn't particularly aggressive seeing only 1 mid-year promotion in his career.

2 hours ago, Dman said:

So might be lost years for them to some degree.

Way too many lost years from the guys in the minors, with injuries and Covid, maybe time to try something different with these pitchers?

IMO it seems there have been an excess of injuries with guys brought though the minors.

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Strotman was always a toss in piece in that trade. Expectations he was a valuable prospect were unreasonable in my opinion. When he was acquired from Tampa, I think a lot of members of the site saw the sparkly ERA/FIP and ignored the reasonability of that success and projectability of a guy who was issuing free passes like that. 

Last year Wes Johnson wanted Strotman to throw strikes instead of trying to pick at the zone because a 5+ BB/9 innings in the minors isn't going to be playable at the MLB level, but once Strotman started throwing strikes, hitters tee'd off on his pitches.

This year, hitters are driving Strotman's pitches pretty hard again and it's hard to tell if the .400 BABIP is a function of luck or just predictability. He's got a 50% GB rate (not reliable) on Fangraphs so there's reason to think he could eat some middle innings if he worked more on inducing weak contact and less on chasing strikeouts... but ahem... pitch-to-contact philosophies have their limits, too.

Considering how desperate the Twins were for pitchers at times this season and the fact he's already on the 40 man, it seems like Strotman is a leading candidate to clear 40 man roster space.

 

Yeah I don't know what they are doing but it is starting to make me wonder.  I get that you have to be able to throw strikes and especially when you need them but I wonder if they missing things as well.  They dumped Vallimont and his 7 plus ERA and over 2 WHIP and now granted it is a small sample 8 innings pitched size but Baltimore has him pitching with a 1.13 ERA and .75 WHIP.  I don't think he had a stretch that good with the Twins this year.  Granted those numbers won't last but it makes you wonder how they could help him so fast.

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins pitching coaches may well be working with Henriquez to throw pitches he doesn't normally throw or throw certain pitches (changeup) more often or change the approach by throwing pitches in different zones. If Henriquez doesn't develop the changeup and prove he can throw it often, he will not be a viable starter. Best to figure out what he brings to the table. Wes Johnson challenged Balazovic to throw his changeup far more frequently and in different counts last year and there were plenty of growing pains. MLB pitchers need to be able to throw multiple pitches at any count and for strikes or batters can wait for the right situation and know what's coming to punish it. Unless you're Mariano Rivera, that ends poorly for the guy on the bump.

To me, age is often irrelevant, like in this case. Henriquez is in his 5th year of minor leagues (4 years of competitive professional pitching) so it was required he be added to the 40 man to protect him. His promotion schedule wasn't particularly aggressive seeing only 1 mid-year promotion in his career.

Yeah and you need that change in your pocket for opposite side batters so I get it.  Development takes time but waiting is frustrating and limited 40 man space makes it tougher and needing another arm or two on the 26 man makes it even tougher still.

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I don't know what they are doing but it is starting to make me wonder.  I get that you have to be able to throw strikes and especially when you need them but I wonder if they missing things as well.  They dumped Vallimont and his 7 plus ERA and over 2 WHIP and now granted it is a small sample 8 innings pitched size but Baltimore has him pitching with a 1.13 ERA and .75 WHIP.  I don't think he had a stretch that good with the Twins this year.  Granted those numbers won't last but it makes you wonder how they could help him so fast.

 

 

 

Who knows? Sometimes guys are uncoachable until the end of their career flashes before their eyes. The move to Baltimore had to have been a wake up call for Vallimont. It's the end of the road if something doesn't change and making it clear a guy isn't worth a roster spot is a pretty good way of saying "the end is near."

5 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah I don't know what they are doing but it is starting to make me wonder.  I get that you have to be able to throw strikes and especially when you need them but I wonder if they missing things as well.  They dumped Vallimont and his 7 plus ERA and over 2 WHIP and now granted it is a small sample 8 innings pitched size but Baltimore has him pitching with a 1.13 ERA and .75 WHIP.  I don't think he had a stretch that good with the Twins this year.  Granted those numbers won't last but it makes you wonder how they could help him so fast.

 

 

 

Vallimont has had stretches that he's looked unhittable before and it never lasted. Maybe Baltimore has unlocked something with the mechanics or delivery or something that allowing him to throw strikes with greater consistency, but...until he can really put together a good month or three where he commands his pitches, then he's another guy with a live arm who can't control it.

On 6/17/2022 at 1:34 PM, bean5302 said:

Strotman was always a toss in piece in that trade. Expectations he was a valuable prospect were unreasonable in my opinion. When he was acquired from Tampa, I think a lot of members of the site saw the sparkly ERA/FIP and ignored the reasonability of that success and projectability of a guy who was issuing free passes like that. 

Is that true? I remember the discussion on the two prospects being that they were close in value, some sites had Strotman as the better prospect. It seems easy to say this in hindsight, but I don't recall anyone thinking Ryan was the only prospect worth of value and Strotman was a throw-in.

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

The upshot was a trade value of 11.4 for Ryan and 2.4 for Strotman.

Those respective values today?  32.2 and 1.5.  Even that paltry value for Strotman seems a little high, but it may not have been updated too recently, plus some trading partner might value him as a buy-low candidate.

Intriguing... Fangraphs had them as near equals, while your source and Mill1634 had Ryan as far more valuable prospects. 

On 6/18/2022 at 11:27 PM, Danchat said:

Intriguing... Fangraphs had them as near equals, while your source and Mill1634 had Ryan as far more valuable prospects. 

Are you talking about the pre-2021 prospects list for Tampa Bay where Strotman was listed as 17th and Ryan at 18th?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-62-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/

Neither Ryan nor Strotman were top prospects at the beginning of the year, but Ryan had a significantly more impressive season with a lot more attention focused on him than Strotman. By the trade deadline, Ryan had jumped quite a bit where he slotted into the Twins' top 10, close to top 5 immediately vs. Strotman being a lateral transfer at 16th and falling from there.