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raindog reacted to John Bonnes for an article, Report from The Fort: Twins 10, Braves 7, Mahle Returns, Julien HomersThe Twins triumphed over the Atlanta Braves, 10-7, in Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers on Tuesday afternoon. It was Tyler Mahle's first game since shoulder fatigue shut down his 2022 season, but his stuff looked great, with velocity exceeding last year's average fastball velocity. The Twins jumped on an early lead thanks to two infielders - Edouard Julien and Willi Castro - who are likely slated for St. Paul. But the postgame talk with manager Rocco Baldelli revealed some injuries that were reflected in the game's lineup. John Bonnes has the details from the game.
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raindog reacted to Theo Tollefson for an article, Edouard Julien is Set to Make an Impact for the 2023 SeasonEdouard Julien spent his entire 2022 season with the Wind Surge and posted some great statistics. He hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) in 113 games.
With these numbers and an even more impressive stint at the Arizona Fall League where he hit .400/.563/.686 (1.248) in 96 plate appearances. His performance in the AFL earned him the league's Breakout Player of the Year Award.
The growing talent of Julien has been ranked higher on early team prospect rankings, including fifth in the Twins system per Twins Daily. His 2022 season and stint in the AFL has also earned Julien national recognition cracking the number 75 spot on FanGraphs 2023 Top 100 prospects list. While FanGraphs authors Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin listed Julien as a left fielder on the list, it is very unlikely he will play the position this year.
“Last year, my goal was to be aggressive early in the count,” Julien said to Twins beat reporters Tuesday morning. “And this year is gonna be the same thing. I tried to drive a pitch early in counts and get ahead of the pitcher. If I get a couple of balls on me, I feel like I'm in the driver's seat because he's behind, he's got to throw strikes. And then that's when the OPS number goes up and I get better as a hitter.”
Julien has wasted no time in making more improvements as he arrived in Florida a month ago from Quebec to get to the Lee County Sports Complex as early as possible.
Not only did Julien need a break from the snow to get into his baseball routine, but he will be on Team Canada for the World Baseball Classic. Julien wanted to be as ready as possible to represent his home country on one of baseball’s biggest stages.
“You get a chance to wear your country in front of your chest, across your chest. It's always a great experience to see old teammates and some guys that you've never played with,” Julien said.
The one player that Julien is looking forward to playing with for the first time on Team Canada above all others, is Dodgers first baseman, Freddie Freeman.
“It's gonna be a cool experience to learn from him and see his daily routines and what he does before games every day,” Julien said.
While Julien has become more aggressive in counts, he still has shown he is willing to work an at-bat into his favor and draw a walk if need be. He drew 98 walks in 508 plate appearances for the Wind Surge and 23 more free passes in 96 plate appearances in the AFL.
His natural ability to get on base has drawn many comparisons to former Twin Luis Arraez. There have been many fans speculating if he’ll be the guy to replace Arraez’s role in the Twins lineup as the 2023 season progresses.
In Julien’s own words, there are some similarities that can be seen to Arraez without any direct mention of the former Twin.
“I think my approach was better last year just to be aggressive in counts and when they see that you're aggressive in counts I feel like the pitchers are trying to put you a little bit more because they're scared that you're gonna swing the bat early,” Julien said.
Where Julien will start his 2023 season in the Twins organization is still uncertain. though it is likely you will see him in a Saints uniform in April. If he performs as well as he did at the AFL in the WBC and spring training, there’s a chance Julien could be on the Twins roster before the month of April is over, although that will be more dependent upon an opportunity opening up in the big leagues.
What would you like to see from Edouard Julien in the 2023 season? What are realistic expectations for the Canadian who speaks three languages - French, English and Spanish - fluently?
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raindog reacted to Cody Christie for an article, One Twins Power Prospect Still Waiting to BreakoutThe 2020 season was unlike any other in baseball history on and off the field. Major League Baseball found a way to play a shortened season during a pandemic, but different facets of the game had to be altered. Front offices changed their scouting and development processes because limited high school and college games were played nationwide. Entering the 2020 MLB Draft, the Twins had a late first-round pick, which added even more uncertainty to their selection.
Minnesota took Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and he signed for $2.75 million. The slugging first baseman had spent two collegiate seasons pounding the ball for the University of North Carolina, a strong college team. In 83 games, he hit .332/.459/.698 (1.158) with 31 doubles and 25 home runs. Some evaluators questioned the pick because he was projected to provide little defensive value, which means his bat must produce at a high level. The Twins were betting on his bat, but he hasn’t put it all together in his professional career.
Sabato spent his first professional season between Low- and High-A. In 107 games, he hit .202/.373/.410 (.783) with 18 doubles and 19 home runs. Most of his offensive damage came following his promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he posted a 1.015 OPS in the season’s final 22 games. Even with college experience, he faced older pitchers in over 69% of his plate appearances. He ended the year on a strong note, so there was some hope for even better numbers in 2022.
The Twins had Sabato return to Cedar Rapids to start the 2022 season. In 80 games, he hit .226/.351/.448 (.799) with 13 doubles and 17 home runs. Sabato drew 49 walks to help his OBP, but he struck out 111 times in 288 at-bats. He posted a 1.084 OPS in July, so Minnesota promoted him to Double-A. In Wichita, he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition for the first time. His OPS dropped to .688 with nine extra-base hits across 23 games. There were brief signs of his powerful swing, but he lacked the consistency to rank among the team’s top prospects.
Sabato is going to feel pressure for multiple reasons during the 2023 campaign. College players taken in the 2020 Draft must be added to their club’s 40-man roster next winter to be exempt from the Rule 5 Draft. Unless Sabato has a monster 2023 season, the Twins are unlikely to add him to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft. He turns 24 years old at the beginning of June, and the Twins have other slugging prospects ahead of him on the organization’s depth chart.
Minnesota will likely send Sabato back to Double-A to start the 2023 season. He has yet to succeed at that level, and that follows a similar development path the team has used with him in his first two professional seasons. The current front office thought highly enough of Sabato to take him in the first round, so they will give him every opportunity to succeed. However, Sabato needs a solid start to the 2023 campaign to insert himself back into the organization’s long-term plans.
Can Sabato put it all together in 2023? How do you view his ceiling after two professional seasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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raindog reacted to John Bonnes for an article, Report from the Fort: Why did the Twins Sign Donovan Solano?solano-signing-landscape.mp4
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raindog reacted to Cody Christie for an article, What Are Realistic Expectations for Randy Dobnak?Randy Dobnak was never supposed to make it to the big leagues. His journey began at Alderson-Broaddus University, a Division II baseball program in West Virginia. Despite some impressive numbers, teams didn't draft him after his junior or senior seasons, so he headed to an independent league team called the Utica Unicorns. At the time, Dobnak needed to make ends meet and famously drove Uber to help supplement his baseball salary. His Uber driving story followed him as he drove his way into the Twins organization.
Minnesota signed him for $500 during the 2017 season, and he made six appearances between rookie ball and Low-A. He posted solid numbers (2.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), but he was older than the average age of the competition at both levels. Dobnak pitched the entire 2018 campaign in Cedar Rapids, but one coach changed his career. Justin Willard (now the Twins Minor League Pitching Coordinator) was the pitching coach at the time, and he suggested that Dobnak start throwing a new sinker. Dobnak used the pitch to skyrocket through the Twins organization in 2019.
Armed with his new sinker, Dobnak pitched at three different minor-league levels in 2019 before making his big-league debut. In 135 minor league innings, he posted a 2.07 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. He was impressive after his call-up by limiting opponents to five earned runs in 28 1/3 innings. In October, the Twins thrust him into the national spotlight by having him start a playoff game at Yankee Stadium. It didn't go well, as he allowed four earned runs on six hits in two innings. Even with a sour ending, it was a tremendous debut.
It was tough for Dobnak to repeat his 2019 numbers, but he made ten starts in 2020 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Following the season, the Twins signed Dobnak to a five-year extension worth $9.25 million, which includes club options for 2026-28. The deal can be worth nearly $30 million if all three options are exercised. At the time, it was an interesting move by the Twins because Dobnak was going to be under team control for multiple seasons. In hindsight, the deal doesn't look good from the Twins' perspective because Dobnak has been injured over the last two seasons. However, over those two seasons, he made a combined $1.5 million.
Dobnak's finger injury is complex, especially for a pitcher that relies heavily on a sinker. He has ruptured two of the pulleys in his finger, which means he relies on three instead of five. This causes pain and stiffness when he is trying to throw. His rehab process has been frustrating as he attempted to come back before suffering another setback. Dobnak made 11 appearances in the minors last season, but there were some control problems as he learned to pitch through the injury. He posted a 5.8 BB/9, significantly higher than his career average of 2.3 BB/9.
In September, the Twins placed Dobnak on outright waivers to clear his spot from the 40-man roster. His focus for the 2023 campaign is to show he is healthy, and it will be an added bonus if he makes it back to the big-league level. He will start the year at Triple-A, and his pitching repertoire will be altered from what fans have previously seen. His slider and sinker are the two pitches to keep an eye on this spring. Previously, he has thrown his sinker has been his most-used pitch, but that might need to change as he compensates for his injury. His slider was the talk of spring training in 2021 before his finger injury reared its ugly head. Will this pitch be his ticket back to the big leagues?
Do you think Dobnak will return to the big-league level in 2023? What kind of impact can he have on the pitching staff? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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raindog reacted to Adam Friedman for an article, Nick Gordon and Kyle Farmer Give Twins' Bench a 1-2 PunchThe AL Central is expected to be very tight and, according to projections and betting lines, the Twins are projected to finish second or third. For the Twins to make up the ground on Cleveland and Chicago, they'll need to get production on the margins, whether on defense, in the bullpen, or off the bench.
Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon's platoon pairing as utility players could be an excellent way for the Twins to score crucial extra runs. Left-handed hitting Gordon will play most days when righties are pitching, and right-handed hitting Farmer will play most days when lefties are pitching, which will give the Twins lineup added length in either platoon situation.
Kyle Farmer
When the Twins brought in Kyle Farmer from the Reds via trade, Twins fans hoped he would serve as a platoon bat in a utility role. Farmer can fill in all around the infield and corner outfield and, if necessary, at catcher. Farmer playing a utility role hinged on the Twins bringing in a big-name shortstop, and for a while, it appeared the Reds 2022 starting shortstop would be the Twins' Opening Day shortstop in 2023.
When Carlos Correa signed with the Twins for at least six years, Farmer was thrust back into that utility role for which he is well-suited. Being able to target lefty pitchers for him to match up with could be a massive advantage for the Twins. In 2022, he obliterated left-handed pitchers with a 157 wRC+, which indicates he was a 57% above-average hitter, fueled by a .568 SLG.
Farmer will move around the diamond for the Twins to hunt lefty matchups. Considering that two righties, a switch-hitter, and just one lefty make up the Twins' Opening Day infield, they may shuffle things around when lefties are on the bump. Farmer could slot in at left field, as the Twins have suggested, although he's only played four innings in the outfield in his major league career. Alternatively, they could move Jose Miranda to first base and slot Farmer, the superior defensive third baseman, at third.
Wherever he slots in, the Twins hope that he will continue his dominance in those platoon matchups and provide much more versatility than their 2022 right-handed platoon bat, Kyle Garlick.
Nick Gordon
Nick Gordon put together his first full season at the major-league level in 2022. To the surprise of many, the 2014 first round pick was excellent.
Gordon showed a surprising bit of power at the plate, especially against right-handed pitching. He put up a 111 wRC+ overall, and a 125 wRC+ against righties. He also showed that there might even be another level when he had a phenomenal 141 wRC+ against righties from July 1st to the end of the season.
Due to his health, Gordon has a minimal track record of success at the upper minors or major-league level, so it's reasonable to question whether his production is sustainable. However, the batted ball data indicates that it was not just a flash in the pan. Gordon graded out in the 86th percentile for xSLG based on the quality of his contact. That could improve if he faces fewer left-handed pitchers, against whom he had a horrible 58 wRC+ against.
Beyond roughing up righties, Gordon provided tremendous defensive flexibility. He played at least 17 games at left field, second base, shortstop and center field. He wasn't good at any position and was below average in the infield, but he was about average at both left field and center field. His ability to be somewhat competent at many positions will enable the Twins to get his bat into the lineup against righties as they get regulars off their feet.
If you ask the average fan in any market outside of Cincinnati or Minnesota, they probably don't know Nick Gordon or Kyle Farmer. But these can be the type of bench players that make the difference between winning the division and coming up just short, especially when injuries pop up. Depending on the matchup, having one of Farmer or Gordon in the lineup just about every day will be a tremendous asset for the Twins in 2023.
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raindog reacted to Nash Walker for an article, What Does Carlos Correa's Return Mean for the 2023 Twins?On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September.
While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023?
The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106.
Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825.
Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half.
While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%).
The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency.
It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr.
Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter.
FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022.
The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available.
Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever.
It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player.
Excitement is warranted.
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raindog reacted to John Bonnes for an article, STUNNER: Carlos Correa Agrees to Terms with Minnesota TwinsCarlos Correa's wild offseason journey has led to agreements with both the Giants and Mets that fell through over concerns about his physical. Now, it has led him back to where he started.
This time last year, Correa was one of the top names on the free agent market, so much so that he reportedly turned down a 10-year, $270M offer. However, he had to wait out MLB’s lockout, which is when he switched agents to Scott Boras. The market for superstars was less robust when the lockout ended in early March. So, he opted to sign a three-year deal with the Minnesota Twins for $35.1M per year, but the contract also allowed him to opt out after each of the first two years.
That agreement couldn’t have worked out better for both parties. Correa thrived offensively and defensively, becoming the Twins MVP and earning rave reviews for his leadership and mentorship. He opted out of his contract, again positioned as one of the top free agents available.
But the usually thrifty Twins declared their intention to pursue him, eventually offering a 10-year $285M contract. Alas, that appeared to be nowhere near enough. Correa agreed to a deal with the San Francisco Giants for 13 years and $350M, but that deal fell apart a week later when the Giants expressed concerns about a plate in Correa’s right leg from a 2014 injury.
It didn’t take long for Correa to find another suitor. The same night, he agreed to a 12-year deal with New York Mets' owner Steve Cohen for $315M. However, shortly thereafter, the Mets had a similar concern, jeopardizing that deal.
Correa and the Mets worked on resolving that concern for more than two weeks, with varying levels of optimism that a deal would get done. Thursday night, that optimism was shaken when Jon Heyman revealed that Boras had engaged with at least one other team. The talks stalled when the two sides could not agree on language protecting the Mets if Correa’s career or production were cut short due to the old injury. Lenient terms on a team opt-out midway through a 12-year deal can quickly turn a guaranteed contract into a not-so-guaranteed contract.
Enter the Twins. They had re-engaged with a similar contract to the one they previously offered, though the guaranteed amount is unclear. Also, while Correa's old injury surely could provide some concerns, they had the advantage of having already observed Correa and his right leg up close for the last year. Their offer was less dependent on a physical, a key component Boras needed before walking away from the Mets’ offer.
It was unclear to the Twins whether they were truly a serious contender or were being used as leverage for Boras against the Mets. Correa may have enjoyed his time with the Twins, but the Mets have a loaded roster, an owner willing to spend whatever it takes, and the City that Never Sleeps. Were the Twins just being used to drive up the dollars? Or to get the Mets to bend on contract language regarding the opt-out? Or did they really have a chance to land Correa?
The Twins and Boras traded multiple offers over the weekend, and confidence their status varied from hour to hour and executive to executive. They knew that Boras was also doing the same with the Mets, and it should be obvious that negotiations with the super agent Boras can be intense. Several times, the pendulum swung from “optimistic” to “pessimistic” and back again, even over the last 24 hours.
With that said, this is obviously a stunning turn of events in terms of optics. The Mets and Giants are among the most free-spending, impulsive, uninhibited franchises in baseball regarding free agency. The Twins are on the exact opposite end of that spectrum.
Correa has quickly become one of the most publicized high-risk free agents at this level of caliber/price we've ever seen. Minnesota's front office – despite its litany of existing injury concerns – said ‘screw it’ and bypassed the inhibitions that held back big-market titans. Why? Because they feel the shortstop is everything their team needs to take the next step.
The only times the Twins have even approached swimming in waters this deep financially was when they were previously faced with losing longtime Twins fixtures like Kirby Puckett, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton. In 1992, Puckett was the top free agent on the market but re-signed with the Twins for 5 years and $30M. In 2010, entering his last year of team control, Mauer agreed to an 8-year, $184 million contract extension to stay with the team. Finally, last year, also entering his final year of team control, Buxton agreed to a 7-year, $100M contract with almost another $100M in possible incentives.
While Correa was with the team for only one year, he has this in common with those players: the organization didn’t want to lose him.
Correa's impact on the team was clearly evident in 2022, when he put forth stellar production on the field and earned rave reviews of his wide-reaching impact on the organization. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender at a premium position. He’s averaged 28 home runs over 162 games while getting on base at a .359 clip. He’s also just 28 years old, entering the prime of his career. Like those previous players, he is now positioned to be the face of the Twins franchise.
In terms of his future fit, obviously, Correa is lined up to play shortstop for now, which pushes Kyle Farmer into more of a utility role while giving Royce Lewis plenty of time to work his way back from knee surgery. It's interesting that the Mets were planning to immediately shift Correa to third base (and he seemed totally open to it), so that could be the plan somewhere down the line for Minnesota.
But as a 28-year-old former Platinum Glover still fielding short at a high level, there's no rush for now. The Twins got their shortstop. And more than that, they got their guy and turned around a wayward offseason with the biggest and boldest contract in franchise history.
The Twins are in it to win it. Let's go.
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raindog reacted to Lucas Seehafer PT for an article, Fixing Jordan BalazovicJordan Balazovic was held to a mere 70 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level where he posted a mind-numbingly poor 7.39 ERA, by far the worst of his career. His peripheral numbers weren’t much better. Below is a comparison of how Balazovic has performed in many key stats over his last three seasons. (He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the pandemic.)
Like many young arms with natural talent, Balazovic crushed the lower minors. However, as he ascended through the ranks, his performance has dipped, culminating in his forgettable 2022 season at Triple-A. It’s not uncommon for an individual’s stats to decline as he moves up the minor league ladder—each level consists of better and better players, after all—but Balazovic’s represent a relatively steep decline.
What stands out the most is the increase in hard contact he has surrendered, particularly last season. As he has only appeared in the minors, we don’t have publicly available Statcast data for Balazovic, but at a certain point average exit velocities and hard-hit percentages aren’t needed. His BABIP against has increased nearly 40%, while his line drive percentage has gone up 81% and his home runs per fly ball by a staggering 471% from High-A to Triple-A. In short, his pitches are getting hit harder and harder by better and better hitters.
Additionally, his walk rates have increased while his strikeout rates have simultaneously dropped from 2019 to 2022. Balazovic has never been one to have pinpoint command despite respectable strikeout numbers (see his K-BB%), and that lack of command has become more troublesome as the opposing batters’ patience has improved at each level. It would be interesting to see his opposing batter chase and whiff rates at all three levels—almost assuredly they would both decrease—but that data isn’t publicly available.
So that belies the question: What can Balazovic due to improve his stuff and get back on the top prospect hype train?
Well, I don’t know. At least not entirely. Pitching is a complex endeavor, both mentally and physically, so rarely is there a simple answer. But I do have a few ideas that my be helpful.
Potential Option #1: Increase elbow flexion at foot plant
This is something that the team of biomechanics wizards at Driveline has looked into quite a bit. Elbow flexion is measured by the degree of bend at the elbow. A fully extended elbow would have 0 degrees of flexion while a fully flexed elbow—biomechanically impossible—would be 180 degrees. Driveline has found that, on average, their most elite pitchers (i.e. fastest throwers) achieve 107 degrees of elbow flexion when the foot of their lead leg hits the ground.
As seen in the picture above, Balazovic frequently fails to reach beyond 90 degrees of flexion, and at times seemingly doesn’t even reach 90 degrees. (Granted, it’s difficult to say with 100 percent certainty from the behind-the-mound camera angle, but this is the best option available to the public.)
Potential Option #2: Decrease posterior trunk lean (i.e. extension) at foot plant
Another Driveline favorite. They have found that most elite pitchers that train with them have, on average, negative 10 degrees of anterior trunk lean at foot plant. In English, that means that the best-of-the-best pitchers generally bend backwards slightly when their foot hits the ground. It’s difficult to put an angle on Balazovic without biomechanics tracking software, but eyeballing it, it seems as though he frequently leans too far back at foot plant. This can contribute to a number of flaws during the throwing motion, particularly making the arm “drag” behind, decreasing command.
Potential Option #3: Increase knee extension power throughout arm swing
All pitchers land with a certain degree of knee flexion (i.e. knee bend) at foot plant. The pitchers who through hardest are able to forcefully extend (i.e. straighten) the knee as they thrust their pitching arm forward. This creates a rigid lever that increases torque and, thus, pitch velocity.
Last season, Balazovic seemingly struggled with this. Perhaps of note, his lead leg is his left and he was reportedly dealing with left knee discomfort all season. It’s possible that the lingering pain caused him to diminish his knee extension after foot plant, impacting his velocity and command.
Potential Option #4: Increase efficient separation between his trunk and pelvis
Watch the video below. The first frame resulted in a ball while the next three were strikes. See if you can parse a difference between Balazovic’s trunk and pelvis between the three pictures.
balazovic 1.mov
Ok, now here’s a video with my notes.
balazovic 2.mov
When Balazovic is able to get his hips pointing toward the plate at foot plant, he’s able to efficiently rotate his torso and throw strikes. When he isn’t his arm lags behind and the result is more often than not a ball.
In short, in order for Balazovic to improve and become a solid MLB pitcher, I would argue that he needs to not only tighten up his mechanics but improve his motion's consistency. His windup consists of many long levers and moving parts, both of which serve to reduce consistency (and, theoretically increase strain on the low back; he's struggled with back pain at time during his brief career). The options I've laid out above may help accomplish the opposite.
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raindog reacted to John Bonnes for an article, What Can We Expect from Joe Pohlad as Twins New Executive Chair?Joe Pohlad has been involved with the Twins since 2007, working in areas of the organization that were preparing him for this leadership role. Most recently, as Executive Vice President, he was involved in the rollout of the new Twins branding, logo, and uniforms, including introducing the changes to the media and fans at the Mall of America earlier this month. He has also been involved in marketing and ticket sales areas within the Twins, and oversaw the Pohlads' media company Go Media. He's also been on the Pohlad Foundation's Board of Directors.
Joe Pohlad has been more visible as a fan of the team than Jim Pohlad, who was viewed as generally hands-off. Joe Pohlad even attended Twins Daily's Winter Meltdown several years ago, and has confessed to being a Gleeman and the Geek podcast listener. He has discussed Twins Daily with me as well, admiring the passion and detail that is contributed by our writers and community.
Joe Pohlad has often been involved in several of the Pohlads' and Twins' more aggressive initiatives, such as Go Media, which included acquiring two radio stations and BringMeTheNews.com. He served as the Executive VP of Brand Strategy and Growth for the Twins, which explains the involvement with the recent rebranding. In that role, he also oversaw the launch of the Minnesota Twins Accelerator by Techstars, an effort to develop startups in technology, sports, and entertainment.
What this means for the direction of the team is anybody's guess. In his letter, Jim Pohlad said he will remain involved as the Control Owner, which suggests at a high-level (including budget, cough, cough), he'll still be involved. However, Joe Pohlad's track record with the Twins suggests he is more likely to be focused on growth than status quo, perhaps aggressively.
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raindog reacted to Theo Tollefson for an article, Twins Still Benefitting from the Pierzynski TradeA.J. Pierzynski is a complicated player in Twins' history. He played a big part in keeping the Twins here and was an all-star catcher on the 2002 team that won the division and beat the Moneyball Oakland A’s.
Over the course of his six seasons as a Twin, he spent half that time as the starting catcher, hitting .301 with 26 home runs and 193 runs batted in. Pierzynski’s promise to continue as an all-star catcher was there going into the 2003-2004 offseason, but the Twins had a local kid named Joe Mauer, that had much more to offer for the team’s future.
On November 14, 2003, the Twins took into favor the promise of Mauer and shipped Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. Pierzynski had a one-and-done year with the Giants and signed with the White Sox the next off-season. The Twins, however, are still reaping the benefits of acquiring these three pitchers as their acquisition of Liriano brought forth the opportunity to bring Jhoan Duran into the Twins organization.
Nathan needs no reminder of his impact on the Twins. Not only did he become the best closer in franchise history but also one of baseball's best relievers of the 2000s.
Bonser was a cult hero with the Twins as a rookie in 2006 making 18 starts and finding success at home in the Metrodome. The success of his rookie year was short-lived as it never carried over into the next two seasons. Bonser spent 2007 as the Twins fifth starter and split time between the rotation and bullpen in 2008.
Following an injury that kept him out all of the 2009 season. The Twins flipped Bonser to the Red Sox for minor-leaguer Chris Province who was out of baseball after one year between Double-A and Triple-A.
Then there is Liriano, the key figure of this trade and the leg of the trade that lives on today. Liriano was a staple to the Twins' rotation until the 2012 trade deadline. While he was struggling to be consistent at that time after his 2006 Tommy John surgery, the White Sox still called the Twins, seeing value in the lefty. In return for Liriano, the Twins received LHP Pedro Hernandez and infielder Eduardo Escobar.
Hernandez was around for the 2013 season with the Twins making 14 forgettable starts and accounting for a 6.83 ERA on the season. He went 8-3 over 16 starts for the Saints in 2015.
Escobar didn’t immediately become the player that most Twins fans remember him. Once he became an everyday player for the Twins in 2014, that’s when fans began to notice him as a utility infielder that could certainly help this team flourish.
Escobar’s time as a Twin was most memorable in the 2017 Wild Card season when he hit 21 home runs, drove in 73 runs, and posted a career-high (at the time) with a .758 OPS.
As Escobar built off his success in 2017 the next year, the Twins were not able to do so as a team seeing themselves as sellers during the 2018 trade deadline. On July 27, 2018, the Twins traded Escobar to the Arizona Diamondbacks and in return received a couple of outfield prospects and a pitcher named Duran.
Jhoan. Duran.
While Jhoan Duran worked his way through the minors as a starting pitcher. In 2022, Twins fans came to know Duran as their best rookie and best reliever. His time with the Twins looks to be certain until he is eligible for free agency in 2028. A lot can still happen between now and then though.
There is a possibility the Twins continue growing branches of this trade history lineage tree, in hopes a player of Duran, Escobar, Liriano, or Nathan’s caliber is received in return.
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raindog reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Lew Ford Can't Say Goodbye to BaseballIf you listen closely, you can still hear the chants of "LEEEEWWWW" raining down from the Metrodome seats. Lew Ford left his mark on the Twins franchise in parts of four seasons, and his mark on the baseball world continues to this day. Let's look back at Ford's Twins tenure and what he has done since leaving the Twins.
The Boston Red Sox drafted Ford in the 12th round of the 1999 MLB Draft out of Dallas Baptist University. His Red Sox's tenure was short-lived as the Twins traded for Ford in September 2000 for reliever Hector Carrasco. Ford spent the next three seasons in the upper levels of the Twins farm system before debuting in 2003.
Minnesota was riding high entering the 2003 season after making it to the ALCS in 2002. Once on the brink of contraction, the Twins needed players like Ford to keep the franchise moving in a positive direction. As a 26-year-old rookie, Ford quickly made his mark on the Twins roster. In 34 games, he hit .329/.402/.575 (.978) with 11 extra-base hits and 15 RBI. Even in limited action, he helped the Twins win the AL Central for the second-consecutive season.
Ford's best season in a Twins uniform came in 2004 when he compiled 4.5 WAR as an everyday outfielder. To put that into perspective, no one on the 2022 Twins has accumulated that high of WAR. For the season, Ford hit .299/.381/.446 (.827) with 31 doubles, 15 home runs, and 20 steals. He even showed up in the playoffs by going 3-for-11 with a double, two RBI, and a stolen base. At the season's end, he received down-ballot votes for the AL MVP.
Over the next three seasons with the Twins, Ford averaged over 100 games per year, but his offensive numbers started to decline. He got on base over 32% of the time, but his OPS+ dipped to 80, and he looked past his prime. From there, he bounced around from different organizations and even made it back to the big leagues with the Orioles in 2012 as a 35-year-old. However, his natural baseball home was with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League.
In August, Ford turned 46 years old and was still wearing a uniform this season. The 2022 season was Ford's 12th season with the Ducks and his eighth in a role as player/coach. In his time with the Ducks, he has been a three-time All-Star (2014, 2016, 2018) and named the Atlantic League's Player of the Year in 2014. As a 41-year-old, he competed in the Atlantic League's Home Run Derby. He leads the Ducks in many career accolades, and he continued to play well for the team this season.
During the 2022 season, Ford played 32 games and hit .270/.293/.429 (.722) with five doubles and five home runs. He became the first player in franchise history to record 1,000 hits in a Ducks uniform. He reached the milestone with an RBI single in the Ducks' 8-2 win over the Charleston Dirty Birds on August 28th. Ford also became just the fourth player in Atlantic League history to reach 1,000 hits, joining former Ducks infielders Bryant Nelson and Ray Navarrete as well as former Somerset Patriots infielder Jeff Nettles.
Last fall, Ford told MLB.com that his favorite memories with the club have been tied to the team's success. "We have won three championships in this league," Ford said. "We broke the record for wins in 2019 and won the championship. That stands out. The winning stands out. All those championships stand out."
Ford's impact on baseball will be felt long after he eventually steps away from the game. For now, he refuses to say goodbye, and chants of "LEEEEWWWW" will continue to follow him each step of the way.
What are your memories of Ford? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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raindog reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Multiple Twins on Pace to Be Gold Glove FinalistsDefensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric developed by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is called the SABR Defensive Index (SDI).
According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, MLB has used SDI as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on August 28, 2022.
Pitcher (AL Ranking): No Twins Pitchers Qualify
The Twins have yet to have a pitcher qualify for the SDI leaderboard in this season's rankings. Many of the team's top starters have missed time during different parts of the season, which means they don't have enough defensive innings to appear on the leaderboard. Former Twin Jose Berrios currently ranks 4th in the AL with a 1.4 SDI.
Catcher (AL Ranking): Gary Sanchez 0.2 SDI (11th)
Sanchez came to the Twins with a reputation as a terrible defensive catcher. Last season, he ranked as the AL's worst catcher with a -8.2 SDI, which was 1.4 points lower than the next qualified player. His increase of over eight SDI points this season shows how much he has improved. In the last SDI ranking, Ryan Jeffers was sixth in the AL with a 2.0 SDI. His recent injury means he no longer qualifies for the leaderboard.
First Base (AL Ranking): Luis Arraez 1.2 SDI (2nd)
Arraez's bat has cooled off recently, but his defensive performance has vaulted him into the Gold Glove conversation at first base. Only Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a higher SDI total among AL first basemen, and Arraez trails by 0.3 points. In July's rankings, Arraez was ninth in the AL with a -0.5 SDI. Can Arraez pass Guerrero Jr. in the season's final month?
Second Base (AL Ranking): Jorge Polanco -2.6 SDI (13th)
While Arraez improved significantly, Polanco's SDI steeply declined over the last month and a half. Polanco has been a strong defender since switching from shortstop to second base. Last season, Polanco finished fourth among the AL's second basemen in SDI. One must wonder if Polanco's knee injury impacts his ability to get to balls defensively.
Third Base (AL Ranking): Gio Urshela -0.2 SDI (T-8th)
Urshela's defense vastly improved compared to earlier in the season. In July, only one AL third baseman ranked lower than Urshela, but his SDI total improved by 1.6 points. Form Twin Josh Donaldson leads all AL third basemen with 7.8 SDI, which ranks as the fifth best SDI total in the AL.
Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa 3.1 SDI (5th)
Correa posted an MLB-high 15.8 SDI last season on his way to winning the American League's Platinum Glove. His early season defensive numbers were disappointing, but he has slowly climbed the SDI leaderboard. Correa improved his SDI total by 2.5 since the July rankings, and another month like that would move him into the AL's top three shortstops.
Left Field (AL Ranking): Nick Gordon 0.8 SDI (5th)
Gordon was an infielder throughout his professional career until the Twins shifted him to a utility role for 2022. Injuries to regular outfielders like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have forced the Twins to use Gordon regularly in left field. His leaderboard position has improved in each SDI update as he becomes more comfortable in the outfield.
Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified
No Twins center fielders have appeared on the SDI leaderboard this season because Byron Buxton has been getting regularly scheduled rest days and time at DH. According to Baseball Savant, Buxton has an Outs Above Average in the 95th percentile, which places him among baseball's best defenders. The Twins also added Billy Hamilton to the big-league roster to improve the team's outfield defense.
Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 5.7 SDI (2nd)
Fans may be frustrated by Kepler's offensive woes this season, but he continues to be an elite defender in right field. Only Houston's Kyle Tucker ranks higher than Kepler among AL right fielders. Over the last month, Kepler has closed the gap on Tucker, and he has a chance to finish the year in first place. Can Kepler win his first Gold Glove?
Which rankings above surprise you the most? Will Kepler or Arraez win the Gold Glove? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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raindog reacted to Jeremy Nygaard for an article, Twins Select Brooks Lee #8 OverallLong-term, Lee's bat will play anywhere, profiling more as a pure hitter than a masher. He's grown to 6' 2 and over 200 pounds, so it's less likely he will stick at shortstop and eventually move to third base, where he easily has enough arm to survive. He doesn't fit the typical power profile as a third baseman, but could be a very good second baseman as well.
Regardless, he checks so many of the boxes the Twins are looking for. Great bat-to-ball skills, could unlock more power and has defensive versatility.
The draft slot associated with the 8th pick is $5,439,500.
You can read Jamie Cameron's profile on Brooks Lee here.
Baseball America's scouting report, ranked second overall:
MLB.com's scouting report, where he ranked 5th overall:
ESPN's scouting report, where he ranked 6th:
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raindog reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Nick Gordon Is Quietly Filling the Royce Lewis VoidStepping in for an injured Carlos Correa back in May, Royce Lewis was brilliant, slashing .300/.317/.550 in 11 games while filling in at shortstop. Upon Correa's healthy return, the Twins made the logical decision to option Lewis to the minors. This raised a great deal of consternation among fans who wanted to see the electric rookie stick around.
At the time, I tweeted out a question: If you wanted Lewis to stay, who was getting bumped from the roster to make room for Correa? I was stunned by the number of responders casually casting their votes for Nick Gordon – even with the understanding he is out of options and would thus be lost from the organization.
It's true that Gordon had worn off much of his prospect shine in the eight years since being drafted No. 5 overall. And it's true he was unspectacular as a rookie in 2021, albeit while training in as a utilityman on the fly. But he's also a 26-year-old whose development was derailed by physical issues, and who'd shown some genuinely positive signs in his checkered MLB play.
Looking back, calls for waiving Gordon to keep Lewis illustrate the danger of short-sighted, emotional thinking. Had they done so, only to have Lewis suffer a season-ending knee injury, they'd now be without both.
And that would really suck because, as it turns out, Gordon has basically turned into exactly the player we wanted Lewis to be.
In 34 games since May 18th, the date of Lewis' demotion, Gordon is slashing .289/.330/.505 with five doubles, two triples, and four home runs. He has played all over the field: center, left, second base, even a little shortstop. His speed and range have been highly valuable in the outfield. His undisciplined and aggressive approach at the plate (22 K, 3 BB) is paying off with a bunch of power and consistent productivity.
If Lewis had stayed healthy and produced the following Statcast measurables over the past five weeks, I think we'd have all been pretty much over the moon:
This is not to say it doesn't suck Lewis is gone. But it's a very good thing Gordon is still here, and to his deep credit, he is helping fill the void of expectations set (perhaps optimistically) for Lewis as a free-swinging, speedy 800-OPS utilityman who makes contributions from all over the field.
If he were a little better defensively at short, I'd almost say Gordon is building a case to serve as interim fill-in while Lewis rehabs in early 2023, but I think that's a stretch. Even so, the late-blooming first-rounder and top prospect is finally fortifying his fit with the organization that drafted him. And it's a beautiful thing to see.
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raindog reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Devin Smeltzer Deserves a Longer LookMinnesota acquired Devin Smeltzer as part of the Brian Dozier trade back in 2018. At the time of the trade, he was a middling prospect who had yet to post a sub-4.00 ERA in any professional season. Smeltzer made some adjustments with the Twins and became one of the team’s biggest surprises during the 2019 season.
At Double- and Triple-A, the 23-year-old combined for a 2.76 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 104 1/3 innings. His first taste of the big leagues went well as he posted 118 ERA+ with a 1.27 WHIP. One of the most significant issues in his rookie campaign was that he allowed eight home runs in 11 games, but he limited other damage, and it looked like he might fit into the team’s future plans.
The 2020 season was strange for many reasons, and Smeltzer’s numbers in seven appearances don’t tell the whole story. He allowed five earned runs on six hits in two innings of work in his first outing. Five of the six outs he recorded were on strikeouts, but he surrendered two home runs. It was a disastrous start to his season, but he made six more appearances and never allowed more than two earned runs in any outing. Smeltzer also didn’t allow a home run during that stretch. All of 2020 was a small sample size, but there were positives to improve upon for 2021.
Unfortunately, Smeltzer couldn’t build off those successes during the 2021 season. During spring training, he lost feeling in three fingers on his pitching hand, which impacted his control. He was limited to one appearance for the Twins in April, but multiple injuries kept him out for the remainder of the year. By season’s end, he dealt with elbow inflammation, a herniated disc, and long-term side effects from his childhood chemotherapy. In November, the Twins removed him from the 40-man roster.
Now 26-years old, Smeltzer entered spring training this year with a clear goal of making it back onto the team’s roster. He made four appearances and didn’t allow a run in 11 innings. His velocity was back into the 90s, and his command and control were back to his pre-injury form. Smeltzer didn’t crack the Opening Day roster, so he went to St. Paul with something to prove.
In his first four starts (19 IP), Smeltzer posted a 1.42 ERA and limited batters to hitting .194/.260/.254 (.514). In his last Triple-A appearance, he allowed six earned runs on eight hits in two innings. It was his first hiccup since spring training started, but the Twins needed another arm at the big-league level, and the team added him back to the 40-man roster.
Earlier this week, Smeltzer made his first MLB start since August 7, 2020. He pitched five innings and limited the Guardians to one earned run on three hits. In that start, he showcased a pitch mix change similar to his breakout 2019 campaign. Smeltzer used his fastball over 46% of the time, with his curveball (31.2%) being used the most out of his secondary pitches. It’s only one spot start, but it was a long journey back to the big-league level for Smeltzer.
In the last week, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy returned from the injured list, and Bailey Ober is nearing a return. Some assumed Smeltzer was out of minor league options, but his demotions in 2020 were too short to count. As the rotation starts to look crowded, the Twins need to decide the best role for Smeltzer.
Following Thursday's off-day, Minnesota is entering a portion of their schedule with 18 games in 17 days. This schedule quirk includes a scheduled doubleheader in Detroit and no off-day until June 6. The Twins will need plenty of pitching depth to make it through the upcoming weeks, and Smeltzer deserves the opportunity to keep pitching at the big-league level.
Can Smeltzer provide value out of the MLB bullpen, or should he continue to start games at Triple-A? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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raindog reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, The Alex Kirilloff Situation Is a Colossal BummerAlex Kirilloff's first stretch in the majors (not counting his postseason debut in 2020) was a great example of why you shouldn't put too much stock into results over a modest sampling of at-bats, at least without taking a deeper look. He started out his career in an 0-for-15 slump, but it was clear to anyone watching that Kirilloff was hardly overmatched. He wasn't striking out and when he connected he was driving the ball.
We all knew the hits were going to come. And they did, in a hurry. The outfielder broke out with a nine-game hitting streak that included three doubles and four home runs. But during that stretch – on May 3rd, while sliding into second on one of those doubles – Kirilloff hurt his wrist. And since then nothing has really been the same.
He kept playing for a couple more months but managed only 13 extra-base hits in 46 games the rest of the way before undergoing surgery in July. The hope was that this procedure would correct the wrist issue while also giving him plenty of time to rehab and be ready for this 2022 season. Unfortunately, it hasn't played out like that.
At no point this year has Kirilloff really looked like himself. He opened the season in a 1-for-17 slump and unlike that opening drought from last year, this one carried no signs of being a mirage. He admitted his wrist was still causing him "a lot of pain" while swinging and went on the injured list, receiving a cortisone shot. Since returning, little has changed.
Statcast, which measures the quality and characteristics of batted balls, paints an almost incomprehensibly grim picture of Kirilloff's performance. His highest exit velocity all year is 100.8 MPH, which puts him in the 9th percentile of MLB hitters for Max AV. Last year he topped that number 35 times. His average exit velocity is down to 85 MPH from 91 last year. He has recorded zero barrels all season, meaning he basically has not once truly squared a ball up.
Kirilloff's launch angle is what really tells the story. It's at -14.1 degrees this year, which means he is basically hitting everything directly into the ground. The extreme nature of that figure cannot be overstated – there is not a single qualified MLB player with a negative launch angle this season, much less that deep in the red. Last year there was one player in the negative (Raimel Tapia of the Rockies at -4.4).
It's unheard of. Kirilloff's swing is completely broken and that is especially hard to see from a player of his natural talent, who was showing glimpses of letting that talent shine. Kirilloff says he's never been able to swing pain-free since the surgery, and he now sounds like he's just trying to cope with this new reality.
"There's still discomfort, and he thinks that his swing does feel different from how it did before the surgery," wrote Do-Hyoung Park for MLB.com. "He's just not able to pinpoint the exact ways in which it feels different. It might be physical. It might be mental. It's likely some combination of both."
I wish I could feel confident he was going to head to Triple-A and figure things out in short order. But Kirilloff is just so far from where he needs to be, and the path to getting there is so unclear. Playing in a doubleheader for the Saints on Sunday, he notched four hits – all singles. The former standout slugger still has yet to collect his first extra-base hit through 69 plate appearances in the majors and minors.
The Twins need his bat at its full potency. Kirilloff can be a pivotal difference-maker for this lineup, as without him they are severely lacking for left-handed power. They need this swing back:
Is it still within him? The 24-year-old is going to try to find something that works over the coming weeks at St. Paul. If another month or so passes without the power starting to manifest, you have to wonder if they'll turn to Plan B: another surgery.
Park mentioned in his article that a procedure could be done to create more space between bones where Kirilloff's cartilage has worn away, contributing to the discomfort. He added that this surgery is "more invasive and involves shortening his ulna altogether by breaking and cutting out a section of the bone."
Sounds unpleasant and undesirable. But we're now basically sorting through bad scenarios to land on the least bad. And in the meantime, Kirilloff – who already lost a full year of his career to Tommy John surgery – is watching his prime playing days pass by while he wrestles with, in his words, "one long, continuous puzzle to try to figure out."
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raindog reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Scouring the Twins System for Relief HelpAlthough your mileage may vary on the quality levels, there are a ton of different arms in the organization capable of contributing to the Twins bullpen. Some of them bring ample big-league experience, while others bring tantalizing upside. If just a few of these guys can hit, it'd make a huge difference for the Twins bullpen.
Below you'll find 13 pitchers with a chance to join the fray this year, listed roughly in order of when you might expect to see them materialize in the big leagues.
Jharel Cotton, RHP
Cotton was of course a member of the Opening Day bullpen after being claimed off waivers from Texas during the offseason. He tossed a couple innings for the Twins before being sent down to Triple-A in a roster crunch. Coming off a 3.52 ERA in 30.1 IP for the Rangers last year, the 30-year-old is a candidate to return soon, although his removal from the 40-man roster complicates things.
Devin Smeltzer, LHP
The left-hander looked to be on his way to securing a roster spot this spring, allowing zero runs on five hits in 11 innings, but Smeltzer was surprisingly sent to Triple-A. There he has continued to excel with a 1.29 ERA in 14 frames. The Twins are keeping him stretched out for long relief duty – or possibly even another chance to start – and it's only a matter of time before he resurfaces in Minnesota.
Juan Minaya, RHP
He pitched extremely well out of the Twins bullpen last year, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate in 40 innings. He's made more than 150 appearances in the majors. He currently has a 2.48 ERA and 8-to-0 K/BB ratio with the Saints. Doomed with a AAAA-player label he can't seem to shake, Minaya has to keep fighting for his chances, but like with Smeltzer, the good work should earn him another nod soon enough.
Jovani Moran, LHP
Compared to Cotton, Smeltzer and Minaya, Moran is much more of a prospect, and he has a leg up in that he's already on the 40-man roster. But it's the lack of polish that will force him to wait his turn. He struggled while debuting in the majors late last year, allowing seven earned runs on nine hits and seven walks in eight innings, and the control issues have persisted this year in St. Paul where he's allowed six walks in 6.1 IP.
Ronny Henriquez, RHP
He initially looked like a toss-in on top of Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the Mitch Garver trade, but there was immediate buzz surrounding Henriquez as an arm the Twins really fancied. His first appearance at Triple-A for the Saints last week did nothing to silence the buzz – Henriquez struck out four over three hitless innings, notching 11 swinging strikes on 47 pitches. Oh, and he's on the 40-man. It wouldn't shock me to see him beat everyone else on this list to the majors, but the Twins probably want to give him some time to settle in and form a rhythm at Triple-A.
Yennier Cano, RHP
Signed out of Cuba for $750K back in the summer of 2019, Cano was viewed as a potential fast riser with a big heater touching the high 90s. The pandemic year slowed him down, but Cano was excellent in the minors last season with a 3.23 ERA and 11.1 K/9 rate in 69.2 IP between Double-A and Triple-A. Through five appearances at St. Paul this year, he has an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio with zero runs allowed. Cano is already 28, so there's no sense in waiting much longer to give him a look, although he's not yet on the 40-man. I think he and Henriquez are the two pitchers on this list I'm most excited about from a short-term perspective.
Trevor Megill, RHP
Megill is one of a handful of veteran-ish relievers signed by the Twins to minor-league contracts during the offseason. That group also includes the likes of Jake Petricka, Jake Faria, JC Ramirez, and Dereck Rodriguez (who we've already seen). They've all got their own strengths and weaknesses but are relatively similar in terms of quality and realistic upside. MLB experience is an asset for each.
Drew Stotman, RHP
The Nelson Cruz trade already looks like a slam-dunk win thanks to Joe Ryan. Imagine if Strotman, the second piece of the deal, develops into an impact reliever. The Twins seem to envision that path, since they kept him on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason after he posted a 7.33 ERA in 12 starts for St. Paul following the trade. He has officially converted into relief duty now, and the early results at Triple-A have been meh (7 IP, 3 ER, 5 BB, 5 K). It might take a little time, but the 25-year-old former fourth-rounder has potential.
Matt Canterino, RHP
One of my favorite arms in the system. Canterino's off to a stellar start in the Wichita rotation, with with a 2.79 ERA and 13.0 K/9, but his innings are being managed with extreme caution (he has 9.2 IP in four starts). Moving him to relief is the only way the Twins can hope to get anything resembling a full season out of him. It wouldn't necessarily need to be a permanent pivot, and would set the stage for a fast track to the majors.
Cole Sands, RHP
A phenomenal 2021 season at Double-A (2.82 ERA, 10.8 K/9 in 80.1 IP) compelled the Twins to protect Sands from the Rule 5 draft, so he's on the 40-man roster. He reported to St. Paul as a starter and looked brilliant in his first couple turns, allowing one run over 10 innings with 12 strikeouts. Then he gave up 10 earned runs in 1.2 IP over his next two outings. Hopefully everything is okay physically, but either way his ascent to the majors has hit a major speed bump.
Chris Vallimont, RHP
Added to the 40-man alongside Sands during the offseason, Vallimont's campaign is off to a similarly ugly start, which may endanger his roster spot. He has a 10.29 ERA in three starts at Wichita. Either the Twins are going to try and switch gears with a bullpen role or they're gonna be forced to waive him, barring a drastic turnaround. Given he was already a marginal addition to the 40-man roster, there's no way the team can stay beholden to a 25-year-old who's getting blasted in a Double-A rotation. That said ... there's a reason they liked him.
Louie Varland, RHP
He was the organization's 2021 pitcher of the year thanks to a sterling 2.10 ERA and 12.4 K/9 across two levels of A-ball. Now Varland is getting his first taste of the upper minors at Wichita, and holding his own with a 4.11 ERA and 18-to-8 K/BB ratio in 15.1 IP. The Twins seem committed to him as a starter, in which case we probably won't see him this year, but a late-season look as a reliever is hardly out of the question.
Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Widely regarded as a top 100 prospect in the game a year ago, Woods Richardson came over alongside Austin Martin in the José Berríos trade. As one of the younger starting pitchers in Double-A last season, he struggled a fair amount, but this year he's off to a dazzling start at Wichita: 16.2 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 14 K, zero earned runs. He's only 22, and – like Varland – pretty firmly a starter. But he's got big stuff and composure, and he's also gonna be on a strict innings limit. If Woods Richardson keeps lighting it up all summer, he could be bringing gas out of the Twins bullpen in September.
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raindog reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, 3 Takeaways from Friday's Win Over the White Sox1: Baldelli showed confidence in Duffey, and it paid off.
Confirmation bias runs rampant in sports fandom, and it's one reason that every coach, manager, and official reliably receives an undue share of criticism. In recognizing this, it's only fair to give Rocco Baldelli his due.
I wrote earlier this week, following Tyler Duffey's second costly meltdown of this young season, that Baldelli should act quickly in reducing the veteran's bullpen role. This was less a reaction to Duffey's two bad outings this year and more with an eye toward his overall regression since 2020. He just seems to have lost a ton.
Alas, Baldelli turned back to Duffey in a big spot on Friday night. With the Twins down 1-0 in the eighth inning and the top of Chicago's order due up, Duffey took the ball and mowed 'em down. He struck out Tim Anderson and Leury Garcia before inducing a groundout from José Abreu.
Threat neutralized. And along with it, the angry mob. For now.
2: Correa finally caught a break.
The game started in signature fashion for Carlos Correa. He worked a good first AB against Michael Kopech before smashing a hard drive up the middle ... straight to the shortstop for a double play – his league-leading fifth of the season to quash a modest budding rally.
Correa hasn't looked great at the plate by any means, and his whiff rate says it all. But he's also been dealing with some rotten luck. His exit velocities and hard-hit rates are near the top of the charts, but so often the outcomes have resembled the above.
So it was nice to see fortune finally tilt in his favor in the eighth inning. With runners on the corners and two outs, Correa drilled a 98-MPH one-hopper into the hole between short and third. Anderson made a nice play on it to his right, but his off-balance throw to first missed wide and chaos ensued.
By the end of it all, the Twins were in the lead and Correa was pumping up his teammates in the dugout. It was an unorthodox way to finally come through for the new team but we'll take it.
3: Baseball sure is a boring product right now.
I guess Correa's eventful infield hit could be described as exciting, but there have been few such moments in the many innings of baseball played this week. What a dull and dreary product fans are receiving these days.
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to have it. I realize that Major League Baseball could've easily been absent from our lives at this point, had the lockout not mercifully ended in March. But the quality of the play has just been really sub-par, with dead-ball era vibes across the league, and Friday was a perfect encapsulation.
The Twins have been a big mess lately, yet Chicago was only messier. The winning runs scored on sloppy defensive plays, and the game featured a familiar lack of compelling offensive sequences.
I was watching on TV with a few friends who are – I would say – at least moderate Twins fans. None of them could even sustain their attention on the ninth inning of a tightly contested one-run game. Even as a total diehard who revels in every intricacy of the game, I could feel their pain.
It was a drag to watch. In the waning moments of a game where seemingly nothing ever happened, Emilio Pagán was battling through never-ending at-bats up until he finally escaped his self-made mess with a borderline strike three call.
It was an unfulfilling end to an unfulfilling victory. I hope better days are ahead.
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raindog reacted to Melissa Berman for an article, Front Office Signals Starting Rotation Might Be Complete- Should Fans Buy In?On March 29, Twins President of Baseball of Operations Derek Falvey seemed to suggest that although the Twins making a trade for another starting pitcher is not off the table yet, Opening Day might be drawing too close to realistically get a deal done. This sentiment has resulted in some mixed feelings from Twins fans- namely frustration at a Front Office traditionally hesitant to spend on top tier starting pitching, and one that seemingly has done it again. We're out of time, they seem to be saying. Should fans buy this excuse?
When free agency opened last fall, despite the lockout looming and a depleted starting rotation that was 25th out of the 30 MLB teams in ERA, the Twins only signed starting pitcher Dylan Bundy to a one-year, $4 million guarantee. While establishing a floor on the starting rotation, Bundy's 6.06 2021 ERA did not exactly whip pitching-hungry Twins fans into a frenzy. Other teams were plenty active during this pre-lockout time- many of the top-regarded starting pitcher free agents in this strong class were claimed, some of whom include: Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Eduardo Rodríguez, Justin Verlander, Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Steven Matz, Corey Kluber and Alex Cobb. Of the top-regarded starters, only Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw remained. Kershaw was regarded as unlikely to sign with Minnesota, anyway, so really, that just left Rodón. If the Twins planned to rebuild their rotation through free agency, they missed their chance pre-lockout.
Once the MLB lockout ended on March 10, the Twins joined the league-wide free agent and trading frenzy and made a sizeable pitching move. Credit needs to given where it is due: on March 13, the Twins traded 2021 first round pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds for starting pitcher Sonny Gray, and part II of the offseason seemed to be off to a promising start. The Twins had a pressing need to numerically round out their starting rotation, and at 18 years old, Petty would not be ready to pitch for the Twins for at least five years. Because high quality free agents were no longer an option, the trade seemed to make sense. Gray has performed well in spring training and is primed to be the ace of the Twins rotation (though he might not be a top of the rotation guy elsewhere). However, it was obvious that one more arm was needed to round out the rotation in light of the Twins trading Jose Berrios and losing Kenta Maeda to injury last season- a rotation that already included Bundy, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan- so Twins fans kept waiting. More had to be coming.
But as the remaining top free agents, and then the third and fourth starters, disappeared off the board one by one and the days ticked by, the Twins rotation remained at four. According to this list, the Twins, arguably one of the most in-need of starting pitching teams in the MLB, signed exactly one of the top 25 free agent pitchers, Bundy, ranked 20th. With the free agent market now even more bare, it was evident that a trade now was needed to complete this rotation. But time kept passing. Articles were even written about how long the Twins could get by without a fifth starter. Rumored potential Twins trades involving Oakland Athletics pitchers Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea still have not panned out at the time of this writing. Twins beat reporters are swamped with memes in response to nearly every one of their tweets questioning the whereabouts of a certain Athletics pitcher.
Finally, on March 28, the Twins announced they had signed free agent pitcher Chris Archer to a 1-year deal. A fifth starter at long last. Archer has a high ceiling as a former two-time All Star with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he underwent surgery in 2020 for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and has played little since (19.1 innings in 2021), so it is difficult to predict his future success. He essentially fills the role left by former Twins pitcher Michael Pineda, who was a free agent this offseason too and seemed like a low-risk, high floor move for a rotation still in flux. However, the Twins made the conscious decision to move on from Pineda and did not contact him during free agency before he signed with the Detroit Tigers.
Archer’s contract is only worth $3.5 million plus incentives, which leaves the Twins in a good financial position to make another signing. Archer's signing was met with mixed reactions from Twins fans. When he signed, a common sentiment was that that he could not possibly be the final missing piece to the 2022 starting rotation, right? Though the starting rotation has now been numerically rounded-out with the Archer signing, it is hard not to feel that there is still something missing, especially in light of the addition of Carlos Correa, a clear signal that the Twins intend on competing in 2022. But then came Falvey’s quote.
Falvey’s sentiment, which seems to suggest that there is not enough time to make moves to bolster the starting rotation in this “late stage” did not sit quite right with some Twins fans- me included. Yes, we are in the "late stage" of the offseason- we are about a week away from Opening Day. That is about as close to the 11th hour as you can get. But to be clear, the Twins are in a self-inflicted time crunch. They have no one to blame but themselves. Free agency began last fall and the Twins knew well where they stood at that time. The Twins front office throwing their hands up now and seemingly saying, “well, it’s too late now!” seems like a bit of a hollow excuse for fans, especially in light of the Correa signing that produced so much hope for the 2022 season’s success- not to mention ticket sales.The Correa signing resulted in a massive amount of tickets sold- over 100,000 from March 19 when the signing was announced until March 23.
It was thought by some that this signing was practically conditioned on the fact that the Twins would be making some more big starting pitching moves- a starting rotation filled with firepower to complement a young, highly talented Twins batting lineup that appears to be top-to-bottom strong. To put it humorously, as I wrote in a blog post in the immediate aftermath of the Correa signing, “[m]ore pitching moves have to be coming. Having this starting rotation with Correa on your roster is like having Ikea furniture in your Lake Minnetonka mansion. Time to upgrade.”
None of this is intended as a knock on the non-Sonny Gray members of the rotation- Ober, Ryan and Bundy have experienced success during spring training and Archer is yet to debut for the Twins. The rotation on paper and as a whole just seems a bit lackluster given what was available on the free agent market months ago, and there are valid questions that can be asked regarding how some members of the rotation will perform over the course of an entire season. Ober and Ryan have not yet experienced a full season's starting pitcher workload in the MLB (In 2021, Ryan went 26.2 innings and Ober went 92.1). Archer is a wildcard both performance and durability-wise due to his injury history. More depth is needed in case any of the starting rotation members end up on the IL. There is very little room for error health-wise with the current rotation.
It’s true that a signing might still come and that Falvey would not necessarily show his hand if a trade was imminent, but considering one has not occurred and other teams are trying to nail down their Opening Day rotations as well, I am skeptical. And if the Twins do still make a trade before Opening Day, it shouldn’t be a “I told you so” moment- Twins fans have a right to be wary based on the team's past track record in regards to acquiring (or not) starting pitching. Fans have every right to expect more out of the team they love and financially support. So should Twins fans accept the front office’s excuse that they just ran out of time? I recognize that I am not in the negotiating war room, Maybe they tried extremely hard but just could not pry Montas and Manaea from the Athletics’ clutches despite giving great offers, and maybe they just could not land any of those free agents for the same reason, Maybe they just had bad luck. But history suggests otherwise. Out of time? I am not so sure we should let the front office off that easily.
So yes, where Frankie?
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raindog reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Projecting the 2022 Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 3.0Major League Baseball recently announced that teams will be able to carry 28-player rosters until May 1. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of injuries. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots.
Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez
One of the biggest remaining questions is whether or not the Twins will carry a third catcher. Jeffers can't start every game behind the plate, and Sanchez is known as one of baseball's worst defenders. Minnesota's only other catcher on the 40-man roster is José Godoy, but it seems more likely for him to stay in St. Paul until there is a need at the big-league level. If Jeffers or Sanchez struggles behind the plate, Godoy is one phone call away from Target Field.
Infielders (7): Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Gio Urshela, Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker**
Correa's addition undoubtedly changes the face of the infield, including solidifying the team's up-the-middle defense. Minnesota has made it clear that Arraez won't be getting regular playing time in the outfield, leaving him as a backup infield option at multiple positions. Last season, Arraez's defense was significantly improved at third base, so maybe he and Urshella will be fighting for playing time at the hot corner. Barring injury, Gordon and Rooker fill out the bench, but neither has a path to a consistent starting job.
Outfielders (4): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach**
With three corner outfielders, the Twins will need to be strategic about getting at-bats for each player. Larnach isn't a true fourth outfielder, so the team may want him in St. Paul to get regular at-bats. Kirilloff can spend time at first base, which is his best defensive position. Rooker is also on the roster, but the team is hesitant to play him defensively in the outfield. Gilberto Celestino is the lone outfielder on the 40-man roster left off this projected Opening Day roster. He was terrific in St. Paul last year, and he's one injury away from taking over a big-league role.
Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer
Randy Dobnak's injury took him out of contention for an Opening Day roster spot. Minnesota signed Archer to serve as Dobnak's replacement at the rotation's backend. Archer's deal is a low-risk option for the Twins as it is highly incentive-based, but he has a chance to prove he is healthy. Also, it's important to consider that the Twins won't need a fifth starter very regularly at the beginning of the season. In some years, off-days and weather delays can push back the need for a fifth starter, but that won't be the case this season.
Bullpen (10): Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, Joe Smith, Cody Stashak, Jharel Cotton, Jovani Moran**, Griffin Jax**, Jhon Romero**
This spring, Rogers has looked strong, which is a good sign for the bullpen's backend. Smith was the team's most significant offseason addition to the bullpen. He comes with over 13 years of big-league experience. Minnesota needed another right-handed relief option, and Smith filled that role. Cotton and Stashak have started in the past, so they can pitch multiple innings when needed. If there were a 26-man roster, the last three names would be fighting for a job. All three could enjoy a big-league paycheck for the season's first month with expanded rosters.
What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Which on the bubble players will miss the cut? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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raindog reacted to Thiéres Rabelo for an article, Trevor Story’s Splits Shouldn’t Scare YouFirst and foremost, I believe it’s crucial to get as much important information about this topic as possible out in the open. People shouldn’t just stick to shallow common-places when there’s so much in-depth information and analysis out there. That’s especially true when it comes to the effects of altitude in baseball.
In this brilliant 2020 article, Rox Pile’s Kevin Larson buts the myth that hitters at Coors Field only succeed because of the altitude. I’ll be quoting a few parts of that article here, but I think everyone would learn a lot if they read the whole thing. Basically, Larson advises people to do two things when analyzing players' performances at Coors:
Take into account the unique circumstances Rockies hitters live through, having to adjust to different pitcher approaches in Denver and on the road; Ignore the traditional stats splits and focus on Park Adjusted stats, like wRC+, OPS+, and DRC+, which can paint the big picture more nicely; Then, Larson goes on to provide several examples of both hitters who improved their wRC+ after leaving the Rockies, but also the contrary, players whose offensive productivity decreased after they joined the Rockies from other teams. Can you guess a former Twin, winner of an MVP in Minnesota, who falls in that last category?
The bottom line is, things aren’t as simple as “hitters won’t succeed after leaving Coors.” Trevor Story's traditional splits sure don’t look good, but that shouldn’t be a reason not to bring him to Minnesota. Not only would the Twins be giving up on a potentially above-average right-handed hitter, but they would be bailing on one of the best defenders in the game.
One of the best examples of former Rockies who succeeded elsewhere is second baseman DJ LeMahieu, who was signed by the Yankees in 2019 and has since won two Silver Slugger awards and received MVP votes in two seasons (finishing third in 2020). Take a look at some of his numbers.
DJ LeMahieu's splits during his time with the Rockies (2012-2018), per Fangraphs:
Home
.329/.386/.447 (.834)
.374 wOBA
96 wRC+
13.4% K%
8.6% BB%
Away
.267/.314/.367 (.681)
.298 wOBA
84 wRC+
17.0% K%
6.2% BB%
DJ LeMahieu as a Yankee, overall (since 2019), per Fangraphs:
.307/.370/.461 (.831)
.356 wOBA
126 wRC+
13.2% K%
8.8% BB%
The same way the belief that “Coors hitters do badly once they leave Colorado” shouldn’t be a rule, LeMahieu’s example isn’t a rule either. Former Rockies cornerstone third baseman Nolan Arenado, for instance, didn’t improve his numbers the same way LeMahieu did. However, his overall numbers in St. Louis didn’t get worse either. They were actually slightly better than his road numbers while with the Rockies.
Nolan Arenado's splits during his time with the Rockies (2013-2020), per Fangraphs:
Home
.322/.376/.609 (.985)
.409 wOBA
129 wRC+
13.7% K%
8.0% BB%
Away
.263/.322/.471 (.793)
.334 wOBA
108 wRC+
16.3% K%
7.8% BB%
Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal, overall (since 2021), per Fangraphs:
.255/.312/.494 (.807)
.336 wOBA
113 wRC+
14.7% K%
7.7% BB%
In conclusion, Trevor Story’s splits shouldn’t dissuade the Twins from trying to sign him. As someone who follows the Rockies very closely, I can attest to how talented and hard-working he is, and also how fun it is to watch him play every night.
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raindog reacted to RandBalls Stu for an article, Lockout Lookup: Brendan HarrisSubject: Brendan Harris
Why You Remember Him: If you were a wheeling and dealing MLB GM in the mid-to-late ‘00s, chances are you threw in Brendan Harris as part of the deal. The infielder out of William & Mary was moved four times between 2004 and 2010, three of them involving your Minnesota Twins.
2004: As part of the 4-team Nomar Garciaparra blockbuster (Twins fans: feel free to call this the Dougie Baseball blockbuster, I won’t tell anyone), Harris was traded by the Cubs to the Montreal Expos. 2006: In the only non-Minnesota transaction, the Expos are now the Nationals, and they include Harris in a trade with the Reds for Austin Kearns. 2007: The Matt Garza trade! You remember the Matt Garza trade! Harris came over with (sigh) Delmon Young and Jason Pridie for Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eddie Morlan. 2010: The J.J. Hardy trade! You remember the J.J. Hardy trade! You’re probably still mad about it and that’s OK! Harris and Hardy were shipped to Baltimore for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobsen. I’m getting upset just typing it. Harris was coming off a career year in Tampa (highs in OPS, HRs, RBI, OBP, and batting average) when he joined Minnesota. He didn’t quite scale those offensive heights in his 2+ seasons here and his defense didn’t make up for it. Despite this, the team signed him to an extension prior to the 2010 season in a move described by one local blogger as a “head-scratcher.”
What You Don’t Remember: Future Twin Orlando Cabrera was also moved in the Nomar/Mientkiewicz deal.
What You Might Remember: From 2011 to 2013, J.J. Hardy led all major league shortstops with 77 home runs. Hoey pitched 24 innings for the 2011 Twins before never seeing the majors again. I’ve just made myself upset again! This is on me!
What’s He Up To: Harris is using his Wharton MBA for X10 Capital, an organization that “empowers professional athletes with the tools and resources necessary to fulfill their dreams.” Before you ask, yes, Tuffy Gosewisch is one of his co-workers. You can find him occasionally tweeting at @brendanharris23.
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raindog reacted to Cody Christie for an article, One Final Remnant of the Johan Santana TradeBill Smith was in a no-win situation. After taking the reins as the Twins GM, Torii Hunter left via free agency, and he faced trading away baseball’s best pitcher. Rumors swirled about potential prospect packages from the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets. Eventually, the Twins settled on a package that included Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber.
Gomez had the longest Twins career, but the club traded him to Milwaukee, where he made back-to-back All-Star appearances. He played his final game in 2019. Humber pitched just over 20 innings in Minnesota, but his most significant mark on baseball was pitching the 21st perfect game in MLB history. His final big-league pitch came in 2013. Mulvey pitched fewer than 30 big-league innings and only appeared in two Twins games. He is about to start his sixth season as the head coach at Villanova. That leaves one man standing.
Like many pitching prospects, Guerra didn’t follow a linear development path. He pitched his first two professional seasons in the Mets organization, where they were aggressive with his level. Baseball America ranked him as baseball’s 35th best prospect at the time of the trade, while Baseball Prospectus had him ranked 79th. Of course, he had yet to throw an inning above High-A, but evaluators considered him one of the game’s best pitching prospects.
Guerra pitched seven seasons in the Twins organization but never got the call to the big league level. He switched to a bullpen role in 2011 after posting an ERA north of 6.00 during the 2010 season. His strikeout numbers improved with the switch, but he still allowed too many runs and gave up too much hard contact. Following the 2013 season, he left the Twins organization and went on quite the professional journey.
Pittsburgh signed him for 2015, and he made his big-league debut. Unfortunately, he allowed five home runs in 16 2/3 innings, but he struck out more than a batter per inning. The following winter, he re-signed with the Pirates on December 7, and three days later, the Angels selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. Los Angeles had to keep him on the big-league roster for the 2016 season, and he got his first extended look in his age-27 season. In 53 1/3 innings, he compiled a 3.21 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 36-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio.
From 2017 to 2020, he bounced around from Los Angeles to Texas to Milwaukee to Philadelphia. During those stops, he made 29 appearances and had a 6.55 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP. He had posted some substantial numbers in the high levels of the minors, but those numbers weren’t translating to the big-league level. Entering his age-32 season, it looked like his career might be coming to a close.
Oakland gave Guerra one last chance, and he slid into their bullpen for the entire 2021 season. He posted a 4.11 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP across 65 2/3 innings. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story as he ranked in the 85th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit %, wxOBA, xERA, and xBA. Even without eye-popping strikeout numbers, batters cannot make solid contact against his offspeed offerings. In fact, only his four-seam fastball allowed a batting average over .245 and a slugging percentage over .392. He uses five pitches out of the bullpen, which is a rarity in today’s game.
Oakland kept Guerra on their 40-man roster this winter, so it looks like he may be part of the team’s plans for the 2022 campaign. Either way, his journey to this point in his career is one of determination and resilience. He’s the last piece of the Johan Santana trade, and he still has something to prove.
What do you remember about the Santana trade? Did you think players tied to the trade would still be playing? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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raindog reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Offseason Status Update: 40-Man Shuffling, Missed OpportunitiesTwins Protect Prospects, Fill 40-Man Roster
Last Friday marked the deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man rosters in order to block them from being claimed in the Rule 5 draft. Minnesota elected to protect six prospects.
IN:
Royce Lewis, SS Jose Miranda, 3B Josh Winder, RHP Cole Sands, RHP Blayne Enlow, RHP Chris Vallimont, RHP While the first four adds above were essentially considered locks, the Twins went the extra mile by adding Enlow (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Vallimont (24-year-old with no success yet above Single-A). After getting burned on the loss of Akil Baddoo last year, it seems Minnesota wanted to take no undue risks this time around, especially when it comes to their critical minor-league pitching depth.
In order to facilitate this wave of additions, the team also cleared room by offloading four players.
OUT:
Devin Smeltzer, LHP (Outrighted) Kyle Garlick, OF (Outrighted) Charlie Barnes, LHP (DFA) Willians Astudillo, UTIL (DFA) These moves leave the 40-man roster full, with 17 position players and 23 pitchers. Here's the makeup as it currently stands.
From here on out, the Twins will need to remove a player and risk losing him for each new addition. Any of Danny Coulombe, Ralph Garza Jr., Juan Minaya, Cody Stashak, Drew Strotman, and Lewis Thorpe could be on the chopping block. It's hard to envision any more drops on the positional side (barring trades), after one clear candidate got himself a controversial new contract for 2022.
Cave Lands Deal for 2022
It was widely expected the Twins would move on from Jake Cave this offseason. He produced a total of 0.2 fWAR in 118 games over the past two seasons, his performance progressively worsening. Alas, the team agreed to terms with him Friday on a one-year, $800K contract.
It's a bit less than Cave was projected to earn in arbitration this winter, but still could hardly be considered much of a value, considering how awful his play has been. My read on this is that the Twins are simply trying to preserve some experienced outfield depth, with both Byron Buxton and Max Kepler ranking among their most likely players to be traded this offseason. Still, Jake Cave?
It bears noting that arbitration contracts are not guaranteed. The Twins can still cut Cave before the next season starts while shedding most of his salary commitment. That rarely happens, but it may be somewhat more likely in this case given the circumstances.
Here's a look at the updated 2022 roster and payroll projection, with Cave (for now) penciled in as fourth outfielder:
Rotation Options Fly Off the Free Agency Board
Free agent starters Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander and Eduardo Rodriguez have all signed with aspiring 2022 contenders from the American League. None of those teams are the Twins.
Detroit made an emphatic statement about its status as a reborn legit player in the AL Central, signing Rodriguez to a five-year, $77 million contract. Not only is E-Rod a quality arm added atop a talented young Tigers rotation, but he was also one of the more realistic high-end starter targets for the Twins. (Though they reportedly were not in on him.)
Syndergaard got a one-year, $21.5 million contract from the Angels, while Verlander re-signed with Houston on a one-year deal worth $25 million, plus a 2023 player option. It's likely that neither of these ace-caliber hurlers had much interest in signing with the reigning last-place finishers in the Central, but those kinds of short-term commitments are in the wheelhouse of the flexibility-focused Twins.
With that trio off the board, here's what remains at the top end of the free agent starting pitching market (* denotes QO and draft pick compensation):
Max Scherzer, RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP Robbie Ray, LHP* Marcus Stroman, RHP Clayton Kershaw, LHP Carlos Rodón, LHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Steven Matz, LHP Zack Greinke, RHP Alex Cobb, RHP Yusei Kikuchi, LHP Jon Gray, RHP Alex Wood, LHP Still plenty of quantity out there, but if the Twins want to score a name from this list they might want to act quickly, because other clubs aren't wasting time. One lower-level name also came off the board on Sunday when José Quintana signed with the Pirates for $2 million.
Winter of Discontent?
We all knew this was likely to be an unusual offseason, given the looming labor strife. Plenty of organizations seem to be biding their time. The Twins front office, especially, has had a habit of waiting out the market and treating patience as an asset, so their general lack of activity comes as no big surprise.
With that said, the early events of this offseason have done nothing but fuel the sour vibes of frustrated fans who are eager for a turnaround, and a showing of intention. Since wrapping up one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history, here's what we've witnessed:
Three top free agent starters signing with other teams, including one with a division rival. An unpopular player in Cave re-signing for 2022. José Berríos signing a long-term extension with Toronto, and more or less indicating that his prior dedication to reaching free agency was largely due to Minnesota never making an offer that seriously tempted him. Reports of Buxton negotiations inexplicably remaining fruitless despite the apparent presence of a reasonable framework, with a trade considered likely. None of these are necessarily unforgivable offenses on their own (the Buxton thing might be, if it plays out like it's trending). But they all feed into negative narratives around the Twins: a team that is unwilling to do what it takes to keep premier homegrown talent, or to sign high-end free agent pitching. A team that's overly committed to perceived "bargains," and maintaining the status quo rather than taking bold action.
There's time to turn the tides on these narratives yet, but if the Twins stand still until the CBA expires midway through next week, they're staring down the prospect of letting this sourness and discontent fester through an extended lockout, which will already be alienating enough for fans on its own.
If that's the case, well... good luck with those season ticket sales.
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