Twins Getting Solid Work from a Former Ace

Check in after the All Star break.  Glad to have good inning from him, but he is not the answer in the rotation yet. 

He has managed to take the ball each time, sure for only about 4 or 5 innings, but he has not been terrible.  If we were to start playoffs tomorrow, he would not be my number one choice that is for sure, but he has added more value than some other guys. 

Archer's career numbers.
ERA
1st time through = 3.13
2nd time through = 3.94
3rd time through = 4.32

FIP
1st time through = 3.34
2nd time through = 3.59
3rd time through = 4.22

xFIP
1st time through = 3.36
2nd time through = 3.62
3rd time through = 3.93 

There is a noticeable drop off between the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, but as you start looking at the TTO's, you start getting into smaller and smaller sample sizes. Archer's xFIP 3rd time through is still better than a lot of middle relievers.

The whole blanket 3rd time TTO movement is a whole lot of BS as far as I'm concerned. The end of the world is not guaranteed if a guy throwing a good game with a low pitch count goes back out there.

8 minutes ago, Trov said:

He has managed to take the ball each time, sure for only about 4 or 5 innings, but he has not been terrible.  If we were to start playoffs tomorrow, he would not be my number one choice that is for sure, but he has added more value than some other guys. 

Archer's been on a 4 inning, 80 pitch cap most of the season.

I'm pleased. WOuld like to see him pitch deeper. But if we get a full 30 or so starts, I'll settle for upwards of 150 innings for the season. By letting him build up,m it is working to the Twins advantage.

Maybe the Twins do know what they are doing, running with more bullpen innings when they could carry more bullpen arms, limited all starters to innings so they will be bstronger once the bullpen cuts down to 8.

Would love to see Archer go 5+ tonight and keep building on what's been a relatively successful season.

Thanks Ted for bringing this fact to us. An interesting fact I heard was Archer's ERA w/ Jeffers is under 2 (including the LAD & NYY games) while w/ Sanchez it's over 6 and Godoy over 4. I believe Archer's FB still tops out at 95/96 but fades longer he pitches. Archer has 5 pitches - slider, 4sFB, change up, curve and sinker. His FB & slider have been rated as elite (his slider his best) his change up is well above average. Although his change up is inferior to his FB/slider, IMO his change up could be very effective latter in the count as a SO pitch to mix up it up, not in the beginning of the count. I'd love it if Santana could help him to perfect that pitch he could be awsome.

Archer's production will continue become better, stronger & more efficent he gets. Very happy that he can pitch 5 innings now. But Archer's greatest contribution is not his production but the chemistry and mentorship he provides to the young arms.

He's doing pretty well, and I'm pleased with the results and the fact that he seems to be staying healthy. He's become one of my favorite interviews on the team; he's interesting and thoughtful. I could see him being awesome in the booth when he retires. As a back-end starter, he's a solid fit for us I think and I think he's someone who can figure out ways to compete even with lesser stuff than he used to have. And it'd be fine if he's more of a "5 and Fly" guy, if that means he's able to take the ball ever 5th day.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Archer's been on a 4 inning, 80 pitch cap most of the season.

Except when he gets through 5 on 59 pitches.......  SMH

In his own contribution during one of those stretches when the Twins are going through a prolonged pitching flux, Archer has been about as important to the staff as Devin Smeltzer.

With his injury history, the pitching brain trust was smart to limit Archer's pitch count at the beginning of the season.

He has been a pleasant surprise, especially with our injury/covid/vax issues. I'm not necessarily optimistic about him for the rest of the season, but if he stays healthy and they can stretch him out ... and his progress continues, I can see him as a valuable number four guy.

I so wish we had a deep rotation, and really hope they can make a deal for a frontline starter from someone out of the race at the trade deadline. 

At his age and with his history of injury, I'm leery of relying on Archer too much, i.e., as a number three starter, should we make the playoffs.

But if we could add a front line starter, alongside Gray and Ryan, with Smeltzer, Ober & Winder developing well ...

I still miss Taylor in the bullpen. (Sigh.) 

I'm going to speculate that the velocity on all of his pitches improving from last year has something to do with a mindset that he's only going out there for 4.




It seems like the options are for him to throw 93-94 for 4 innings or 91-92 for 6 innings. Option A gives you a much better chance to win a game, so that appears to be the game plan. I'm fine with this. I'm actually wondering if you start seeing this more often with their scrap heap signings. 

Would anyone have predicted he'd be the only one not on the IR? 

I enjoy watching his facial expressions when he pitches. He looks like he's having fun. I just wish he could get through 6 innings...

On 6/13/2022 at 12:58 PM, bean5302 said:

Archer's career numbers.
ERA
1st time through = 3.13
2nd time through = 3.94
3rd time through = 4.32

FIP
1st time through = 3.34
2nd time through = 3.59
3rd time through = 4.22

xFIP
1st time through = 3.36
2nd time through = 3.62
3rd time through = 3.93 

There is a noticeable drop off between the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, but as you start looking at the TTO's, you start getting into smaller and smaller sample sizes. Archer's xFIP 3rd time through is still better than a lot of middle relievers.

The whole blanket 3rd time TTO movement is a whole lot of BS as far as I'm concerned. The end of the world is not guaranteed if a guy throwing a good game with a low pitch count goes back out there.

I would think almost every pitcher shows a drop-off during the second and third times through the lineup. How do Archer's numbers compare with the MLB average?

I think Archer has actually been a very important off-season signing, perhaps the third most important after Correa and Gray. We also have to keep in mind that he will not be a 6 to 7 inning starter at any point this year or perhaps ever again. He is really more of a classic #4/5 starter, go in expecting 4-5 innings and hoping for 6, knowing the chances of any more than a 6 innings are very small and that he if he goes out for the sixth inning you go get them as soon as there's any hint of trouble. There is real value to that role and very real value to that role for this year's Twins team.

Now that Smeltzer is getting banged around a bit once teams had a chance to see him or get good film on him, I'm wondering if he and Archer can be a piggyback tandem once Ober gets back and reclaims the #3 spot in the rotation. Winder can be the other starter when he gets back or maybe we can trade for a starter that isn't going to be incredibly expensive like Marquez, Hendricks, or even Jose Quintana. I don't think were going to be willing to pay the freight for a Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas. I wonder if a package of Larnach plus an A ball pitcher could get us David Bednar, José Quintana, and Zach Thompson from Pittsburg....

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I think that's an underappreciated point, but not in the way you probably mean, because of the reason the samples get smaller. 

Any study of data needs to be on guard for bias in that data.  And here, we have a situation where a guy isn't allowed a second time through the lineup if he's having a truly terrible day (in the first or second inning and gets pulled).  And he certainly doesn't get a third chance through the lineup if the first two trips through were pretty bad.  So the data is biased at each step *toward* the pitcher; and yet, at each step, he does worse.

It's worse than the raw numbers tell us, IOW.

In the way I mean? As in, it's tough to get reliable data from small sample sizes for specific players. Keeping in mind, nobody cares if a pitcher gets worse. If the pitcher has a 0.00 ERA/FIP in the 1st TTO, it's not relevant if their ERA is 1.00 the 2nd time or 3.00 the third time. They're still better than the alternative (middle reliever.)

16 hours ago, ashbury said:

Small samples for individual pitchers, but league-wide the samples are large enough - yet still carry the same fundamental problem of bias each time through the lineup.

League-wide does not apply to each individual pitcher. Some pitchers have vastly different performances than the average. Also, when it comes to the 2nd vs. 3rd time through the order on a league-wide basis, the difference in performance is pretty small.

2022 League  xFIP
= 3.61 median 1st time
= 4.03 median 2nd time
= 4.08 median 3rd time

This has been the case in every previous year I've looked as well. If the goal is to protect the scoreboard or the pitcher from giving up runs, they should be pulled after the first time through the order. Essentially, there should be no starting pitchers in the game.