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Projected Starter: Byron Buxton
Likely Backup: Jake Cave
Depth: Max Kepler, Keon Broxton
Prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Misael Urbina
THE GOOD
Ever since he was a teenager, Byron Buxton's greatness was preordained. He was drafted second overall out of high school. He became the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball. He debuted in the major leagues at age 21, and won a Platinum Glove at age 23.
Year after year, he's been situated as a centerpiece in Minnesota's plans. They rightfully view him as a singularly transformative force who can elevate a team to new heights. When Buxton's been on the field over the past two years, they've won 70% of their games.
It's all too easy to focus on the time he's spent off the field, but let's be clear: this is a premier athlete, at the height of his physical prime. He's 27 years old, and for now, he's healthy. We can dream on the (very real) possibilities.
Buxton's 2018 season was a total loss, sabotaged by front-to-back injury woes. But when you subtract that, his performance has been phenomenal since a breakout 2017 campaign. He has posted 7.5 fWAR in 266 games, mixing elite defensive value with outstanding offensive production – especially in the past couple seasons, where he's emerged as a power-hitting force.
It is here that we've seen the most progression and growth from Buxton as a hitter. As you compare his Statcast measurements from 2017 and last year, you can see this pretty clearly. What hasn't changed is that Buxton is unbelievably fast, and amazing at covering ground in the outfield. What has changed is that he's now crushing the ball with the best of 'em.
In 2019, Buxton set new career highs in basically every Statcast metric for power: Barrel %, Exit Velocity, Launch Angle, xSLG, Hard Hit %. In 2020, he was better in every category.
Between those two seasons, he launched 23 home runs in 126 games with a .534 slugging percentage. Buxton is a bona fide slugger, who also plays world-class defense in center. That's not a combination you come across very often.
Of course, Buxton's appeal doesn't doesn't end with his power stroke. What makes him a uniquely exciting and valuable player is his unrivaled speed. He can beat you by bashing it over the fence, or tapping a dribbler to the shortstop.
The Twins and Rocco Baldelli haven't opted to call many steals for him lately, but it's a weapon in his arsenal (he has an 87% career success rate) and Buxton can take extra bases with leisure. He keeps pitchers and defenses on edge. He's a threat at all times.
When he's healthy and in his groove, Byron Buxton impacts every phase of the game and single-handedly shifts outcomes. How many players have we been able to say that about?
THE BAD
Needless to say, keeping Buxton healthy and in his groove has been an overwhelming challenge. Dating back to 2018 he has missed more than half of the team's games, and the difference in outcomes with and without him has been dramatic.
The Twins have taken extensive measures to try and protect their superstar asset, to little avail. Last year he was healthier than usual, playing in two-thirds of Minnesota's regular-season games, but still ended the season hurt and unavailable. His surgically repaired shoulder reportedly continued to bother him (though you wouldn't know it by his results when swinging), and late in the year, he suffered a concussion after taking a fastball to the head.
No amount of planning or safety-focused coaching is going to be able to prevent things like this. More broadly, Buxton's game is based on aggressiveness and borderline-reckless speed. If he's not going all out, he's not Byron. All the Twins can do is embed small tweaks (such as launching off one foot for leaping attempts the wall) and hope for a little better luck. All parties involved are beyond due for it.
Alas, it'll be important to be prepared for his absence, with short-term and long-term contingencies.
For the former scenario, Jake Cave is ready to step in. In the event of a lengthier absence, the Twins are more likely to slide Max Kepler over and activate their depth in the corners. Cave and Kepler are both capable, but sizable downgrades from the incumbent.
Should Buxton find a way to stay mostly healthy this year, the key focus will be refining his approach at the plate. I've given up on the idea of him being a remotely disciplined hitter, and Buxton has proven he can make it work with a swing-at-everything mindset. His .844 OPS last season, when he drew two walks against 36 strikeouts, is evidence enough. But the .267 on-base percentage was painful, offsetting some of his power-driven value.
If Buxton's future is as a streaky, slump-prone, pure power bat, that's not the worst thing. It's certainly how the Twins treated him last year, batting him consistently at the middle-bottom of the lineup and having him attempt only three total steals.
But if he can just become a shade more selective at the plate, harnessing the pure hitting skill and modicum of discipline that contributed to a .310 average and .364 OBP at Triple-A, Buxton can take the next step to MVP-level stardom.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This is a massive season for Byron Buxton. He's at a crux point in his career, with free agency two years away and his reputation as a player on the line. Will he finally stay on the field, gaining the necessary comfort and consistency at the plate to fulfill his offensive potential while staying golden in center? If so, Buxton will probably be one of the two or three most impactful players in the league.
If 2021 brings more of the same – checkered availability along with offensive ups and downs – he'll be lined up to hit the open market more as an intriguing gamble for some team, as opposed to a highly coveted nine-figure stud.
The stakes aren't quite as high for the Twins, who by now are acclimated to playing without him, and fairly well positioned in terms of depth. But they know as well as anyone: Buxton is the single biggest wild-card in their quest to get over the hump.
READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES
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