The Twins Shouldn't Trade for an Ace

I still stand by my comments in other threads.  When you have the number of near major league ready pitchers the Twins now have, you have to find out how many of them will step up and become viable major league pieces. I hope we will be suprised by a few, but out of about a dozen, we should be able to find 4 - 6 major league pieces that are decent.  If we are lucky maybe 1 - 2 will become at least #2 type starters.

I totally agree with your take.  I continually struggle to understand how the pitcher we have is worth less to us because he has only two years left, than someone else's pitcher who has just two years left.  I want to know if our young arms have more than potential before we start maneuvering.

That would be a huge over-pay. The Twins just traded away Berrios for 2 prospects. Why would you trade away an established big-league hitter in Arraez and 3 prospects to get a Berrios like pitcher in Montas back? That makes no sense at all. Going backwards on that 4 for 1 deal would be an understatement and the A's would be smiling all the way to the bank just like the Yankees do everytime the Twins trade with them. 

The FO has missed the boat as the best quality Free Agent arms are all but gone this year. If they trade for an established pitcher that will actually help them this year they will have to pay and it'll be through the nose. The biggest problem is that 1 established quality arm that would help them isn't enough. They need 2. As much as it pains me to say it, I'd rather see them punt 2022. See what they have in Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, Enlow, Canterino, Sands, Vallimont, Strotman, Woods-Richardson and go for it 2023 with the return of Maeda. It'll give them a longer look at Ryan and Ober as well and build them up to be full-time starters, which they won't be in 2022 because of their limited innings pitched to this point. Also bring up Miranda and Martin, give Larnach and Celestino another shot. Find out what you have in Kirilloff and Jeffers. Then make the moves needed to be competitive in 2023 at the trade deadline and during the off-season next year. Who knows, there might not even be major-league baseball this year.

We still have a very good core of players, it'd be a waste of talent if we punted again this season. The Montas trade that's suggested by Nash Walker is fair and very manageable. Players that are suggested are expendable. Arraez, one dimensional player with 0 upside and falling trade value; Kavaco, player type we have over-abundance of;  Duran & Strotman could surprise us but their projections are not that high. Pitching prospects are risky.

While Montas is an established pitcher with a lot of upside left. It'd be wise to extend him as soon as possible, I don't think he'd be that expensive and we can afford it. Even with Montas, I'd like an even more veteran pitcher to anchor this rotation. The benifits will well out weigh the cost. Pull the trigger, when the time comes.

Of course we still need a SS but that can easily be solved if they don't wait around too long. If they don't go for it again this season, don't ever expect them ever to do it.

Trading for 2 years of a super duper Ace #1 guy, makes no sense when the other 4 pieces of a typical rotation are mostly up in the air. Signing a Pineda type for up to 2/20 would help us get by. This year has to be about pitcher development whenever it starts. Maeda may be back sometime this year and hopefully leading the rotation in '23.

Agree 100% with your main point, Cody.  But as far as the trade mentioned is concerned, I see it as a big win for the Twins, especially if they could extend him.  My reason is that I see minimal value in Cavaco or Strotman, and both Arraez and Duran’s health is a concern.  For that reason, and because Martin and Julien are close I would pull the trigger on that trade in a New York minute.

The post makes some reasonable arguments but omits to examine how exactly the loss of these players harms the Twins. Arraez is a terrific batsman without a position. He cannot play in the outfield and is a most unlikely DH. Do we sit JD, Polanco, or restrict opportunity for Miranda? Cavaco could still step forward but he is behind a host of others. Pitching prospects? Ober, Ryan, Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Sands, and Strotman are mostly ready for MLB action. Then there are others coming soon: Woods Richardson, Canterino, Varland. The Twins could afford to trade one or two easily and the return of an experienced pitcher would be a real benefit for the young pitchers, serving as a stabilizing force in the rotation. Lewis and Martin should be ready pretty soon. Maybe an easier add would be Bassitt or Manaea for Arraez plus a lesser prospect/player. Finally, there is Rodon too and he only costs money. The question of budget is real in that case because that idea goes away with a $110 million budget. Will the Twins win the World Series or the AL Central with two additions to their pitching staff? Unlikely. It is more likely that they lose 100 games for several years if they throw their prospects to the wolves without anybody to hold the line. The Twins need two starting pitchers to go before Winder, Ober, and Ryan.

I don't comment on specific trade proposals made by fans because it's no better than fantasy baseball. But I will say that trading and free agent signings have this in common: do not overpay unless your team is already contending or strongly expected to contend and the transaction improves the chances of winning a World Championship within a year or, at the most, two.

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

The FO has missed the boat as the best quality Free Agent arms are all but gone this year. If they trade for an established pitcher that will actually help them this year they will have to pay and it'll be through the nose. The biggest problem is that 1 established quality arm that would help them isn't enough. They need 2. As much as it pains me to say it, I'd rather see them punt 2022.

This is exactly where I'm at. I wanted to believe that the FO was serious about it's "championship-caliber roster" and intentions to compete, but that proved to be just PR-puffery. The only realistic path for a resurgence in 2022 was through free agency. That ship has sailed (and please, no Rodon). Now it's time to give the players on the cusp a chance to get used to the pace/challenge of MLB. See what you've got, and get better at keeping the impact prospects.

Cody, can't agree here at all for following reasons:

1.  You rightfully say it makes little sense to go for just one top rotation arm, but why should the FO look to just one when they can obviously add a second from FA(Rodon, Greinke, e.g.), find a solid #3 in a Pineda, Kim, Odo, or Duffy - none of whom will break the bank in salary or prospects?  Seems to me a strawman argument.

2.  Waiting a year (or 2 or 3) to try contending again is a crap shoot, given the current lineup, which has the potential of being playoff-worthy now, but will not all be on the roster in 2 years or will be less productive. 2022 is certainly the best year to contend so long as FO is agressive in going for 3 major league starters not currently on the roster.  Believing the team can contend in the next 2-3 years by depending on prospects and dumpster diving is a fool's errand, especially given the failure of this development team to graduate at least one difference maker in 5+ years of control.

3.  Montas is exactly the type of trade prospect the FO should be seeking, provided they can come to agreement on extending his contract beforehand.  You can quibble with overpaying for him, but if you think Arraez, Cavaco, Strotman are keys to a contending club, I beg to differ.  The only guy I'd hate to lose would be Duran, as he looks like the only potential closer down on the farm, but yes, to get Montas for one valuable prospect is worth it.  You trade from strength and so Arraez is redundant, and we have a pretty long list of near-majorleague-ready pitching prospects.

While the FO's timidity pre-shutdown is regrettable, to say the least, there are still available pitchers out there who if added would transform this team into a contender this year.  They owe it to the current players, the fans and to themselves(if they value their jobs and future employment) to make all reasonable efforts to reconstruct a staff currently at the bottom of of MLB rankings into one that is at least league average.  Over valuation of prospects prevented Ryan's team from ever becoming successful in the playoffs and so far Falvine seems intent to following in TR's footsteps.  This is their last chance to right the ship.

Cody, I agree with your assessment. Thanks for writing a good article, which shows a trade proposed by another writer and  a good argument as to why the proposed trade would not be a wise move. 

4 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Cody, can't agree here at all for following reasons:

1.  You rightfully say it makes little sense to go for just one top rotation arm, but why should the FO look to just one when they can obviously add a second from FA(Rodon, Greinke, e.g.), find a solid #3 in a Pineda, Kim, Odo, or Duffy - none of whom will break the bank in salary or prospects?  Seems to me a strawman argument.

2.  Waiting a year (or 2 or 3) to try contending again is a crap shoot, given the current lineup, which has the potential of being playoff-worthy now, but will not all be on the roster in 2 years or will be less productive. 2022 is certainly the best year to contend so long as FO is agressive in going for 3 major league starters not currently on the roster.  Believing the team can contend in the next 2-3 years by depending on prospects and dumpster diving is a fool's errand, especially given the failure of this development team to graduate at least one difference maker in 5+ years of control.

3.  Montas is exactly the type of trade prospect the FO should be seeking, provided they can come to agreement on extending his contract beforehand.  You can quibble with overpaying for him, but if you think Arraez, Cavaco, Strotman are keys to a contending club, I beg to differ.  The only guy I'd hate to lose would be Duran, as he looks like the only potential closer down on the farm, but yes, to get Montas for one valuable prospect is worth it.  You trade from strength and so Arraez is redundant, and we have a pretty long list of near-majorleague-ready pitching prospects.

While the FO's timidity pre-shutdown is regrettable, to say the least, there are still available pitchers out there who if added would transform this team into a contender this year.  They owe it to the current players, the fans and to themselves(if they value their jobs and future employment) to make all reasonable efforts to reconstruct a staff currently at the bottom of of MLB rankings into one that is at least league average.  Over valuation of prospects prevented Ryan's team from ever becoming successful in the playoffs and so far Falvine seems intent to following in TR's footsteps.  This is their last chance to right the ship.

 

Mike, while I respectfully disagree with your conclusion, thank you for a well thought out position and for presenting the other side to Cody's position. 

In the interest of competing this year and every year for that matter,  I would do this deal.  But it should just be one step in the process.  I still believe it to be feasible to sign Rodon to a one or two year contract and to sign Story.  If our up and coming young pitchers are ready they will get their chances due to injuries.  How many starting pitchers do we use on average?  I think there will be more than enough innings for the young guys.  My only question in this scenario is payroll for 2022.  But I think that this lineup and adding 2 good SP gives us a great chance at winning the division.

I may be in the minority, but I feel like 2022 would be better seen as a "Let's see what we've got" year.  Guys like Duran, Winder, Sands, Balezovic, etc don't need to be in the rotation for the entire season for the club to see what it has in them.  Innings can still be managed if necessary, but I'd like to see guys like that make at least 10-12 starts each, health allowing of course.  Maybe Canterino shows enough over the first 3 months to warrant a look at the mlb level.  At some point, let's actually see Royce Lewis play SS.  Get Jose Miranda at least 300 AB...I don't care where he plays in the field, 3B or 1B.  Give Austin Martin a cup of coffee.  Continue to give Celestino some run...along with Larnach and Kiriloff of course.

I understand both sides of the argument of trying to make a push to contend this season or develop assets for a push in 2023. Given these assets and variables are dynamic and speculative and difficult to predict - it makes the most sense to attempt to contend almost any season when the core of the team has obvious strengths.

Core Strengths:

1. Line up: Polanco, Buxton, Donaldson, Garver (This group can produce runs.)

2. Emerging Talents at or near MLB: Kirilloff, Martin, Lewis, Jeffers, Miranda. (A few of these guys might be pretty darn good.)

3. Young arms at or near MLB: Ryan, Ober, Alcala, Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Sands, Canterino etc. (Sheer #'s means at least a few of these players pan out as effective MLB pitchers.)

4. Tradable Assets: Arraez, Kepler, Larnach, "Surplus" young arms. (Enough to get an upper rotation SP - who? Fill in the blank. -Maybe even a controllable arm beyond 2023.)

5. Payroll available for one big signing: Rodon? Story? (Add a big splash - might be enough?)

6. Eliminate sky is falling mindset. (No guarantee of success but Twins can make this work.)

Win Twins.

In my opinion, it really depends on the intent of such a trade.

Do you just trade for one or two years of an good starter to try to make this team competitive in the short term? That will probably end up being a failure, unless the Twins hit the baseball jackpot and several of their pitching prospects are great immediately. Highly unlikely. As others have pointed out, this is especially true if the big trade is the only move to improve the rotation. 

On the other hand, do you make this trade with the intention to extend your new starter (and willingness to pay market rate for him!)? Then you could build your rotation in the upcoming years around him. All the young pitchers would certainly benefit from his presence. And once they have settled in, the new pitcher could help you contend. In this case, yes please. That's what I think the FO should do.

Unfortunately, nothing this FO has ever done has given me the indication that they're willing to give big long-term contracts to SPs. Therefore, I am not a big fan of a move like the proposed Montas trade. Seems just like a waste of assets on a pitcher who won't be here anymore when it matters.

Of the entire Twins roster, here are the guys I believe they can count on to be productive, pull their own weight players.

• Donaldson
• Polanco
• Kepler
• Buxton

Here are the guys who will probably be productive, pull their own weight players.

• Ryan
• Ober
• Arraez
• Garver

That's it. The every day guys who will probably produce 2 WAR or more. All 8 of the 14 positions you'd want to be confident in. Like half the roster is filler or unproven.

Here are roster filler guys

• Sano
• Gordon
• Dobnak
• Strotman
• Jax

Here are question marks

• Larnach
• Rooker
• Kirilloff
• Celestino
• Miranda
• Winder
• Balazovic
• Rortvedt
• Thorpe
• Bundy
• Jeffers

I think the Twins have a few things to figure out before they sell the farm for an ace. I think fans believe the Twins are close or "hey, they did it in 2019 and 2020!" but the AL Central is nothing like the division it was when the opportunity to "put the boot on the neck" was casually passed on by this front office. The White Sox look potentially elite. The Tigers look very good and have more payroll to play with. The Royals have a better farm system as well, and an owner more willing to spend than the Pohlads. Actually, only maybe the Guardians are as tight fisted with money as the Pohlads, but Cleveland was clearly a better team than Minnesota last year, finishing 7 games ahead in the standings. The Twins are not as good as they were last year on paper. No Berrios. No Maeda. No Cruz. Questionable on Rogers. Those are big shoes to fill and right now, Minnesota is filling them with "ifs"

Cody, thank you for stimulating the discussion with an excellent "scenario."  I'm late to comment as I was at Mass this morning and had some errands to run afterward.  But being late gives me a chance to say while I respect your viewpoint, I'm on board with Dr. Gast, tony&rodney and Mike8791.  I have always stated that that we should be gearing up to contend in 2022.  We were back to back division winners in 2019 and the shortened 2020.  We handed the division last year to the White Sox when our front office completely failed and the Sox FO was stellar.  Good for the White Sox.  If our "dynamic duo" wants to remain employed they can't let the current pitching staff remain the status quo.  The trade you put forward is very fair according to Baseball Trade Values, and since I manage a TV station sales team (and am not employed by a MLB front office) I use that as my baseline to see if I'm realistic or insane.  The only guy in your trade I would feel some unease about is Duran.  I love Arraez.  But with Miranda, Martin and Lewis we really need to move him for pitching.  He's just superfluous going forward.  A trade for Montas is needed not just for 2022 but for the seasons to come.  As I was reading the other comments I was thinking "why couldn't we acquire Montas and then either sign Story for SS or Rodon to go WITH Montas ??  Others subsequently made those points.  I could see myself bargaining with the A's to NOT include Duran (I see him as our future closer) by including Sabato/Wallner  Rooker or Dobnak.    Getting Montas without giving up Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, or SWR is a WIN !  I fervently want Canterino to be a stud SP for the Twins, but I could also live with him as our future closer if we HAD to include Duran in the deal.  So what about Rodon to go WITH Montas ??  I was driving in the car on Friday and heard a couple guys talking about Rodon on XM Radio.  One guy said something i hadn't ever heard before about Rodon.  Seems until he had Tommy-John surgery, Rodon had never worked out.  Never lifted any weights.  But because he had to rehab he was "forced to."  He reported to spring training in the best shape of his life and proceeded to have a tremendous year.  Had he not hurt his arm or gone thru a dead arm period, he was the best pitcher in the A.L. last year.  He was Koufax-esque !!  That puts me in a different mind set regarding if I would go after him.  If we traded for Montas in the deal you proposed, and I had to choose between signing Story or Rodon, I'd probably go with Story to plug that HUGE hole at SS.  But if I was Jim Pohlad, I do that Montas deal, and sign BOTH Story and Rodon. (or just Rodon and trade for Mondesi or DeJong).  I'd expect my manager and pitching coach to want to baby every arm with the names Ryan, Ober, Balazoivic, Winder, Canterino, and SWRichardson attached to it.  I'd see how 2022 plays out.  (remember, we don't need to win 106 games like the Dodgers last year to finish 2nd!!!).  And after 2022, I'd start the whole evaluation process over again:  How's our lineup?  Buxton, Polanco, Kiriloff, Story  getting it done ?  Is it time to move on from Sano ?  How are Miranda, Martin and Lewis shaping up as well as Larnach/Celestino ?  What about our catchers ?  And finally, what did Montas & Rodon show us?  And key to all of this:  Where are we at with ALL THOSE YOUNG PITCHERS ???  Who got hurt ?  Who disappointed ?  Who FLASHED ??  And once again, the entire process starts up again.  But no, I will never be happy with the determination that we have to punt 2022 and that 2022 should be a 90-100 loss season. 

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

So in other words, you don’t think the Twins should ever go big on a FA or trade? ?

I assume your wink is because of the infrequency with which the Twins strongly contend. And I get that. But I didn't say not to go big. I said not to overpay. There's a difference.

If the A's include the "perpetualyl injured but really though if he can stay healthy this year" guy in AJ Puk, then I would consider this deal. I love the upside of Duran, but all the TWins will do is make him a releiver anyways. and at least getting back equally powerful arm that is equally injury prone in Puk would help offset that risk.  Cavaco still has upside, but he is a diem a dozen upside. we have 6 others exactly like him. Although if I remember correctly wasnt he compared to A-rod after being drafted???   So that leaves Arraez & Strotman.   Arraez is a nice bat, but how many innings is he really going to play? with Nick Gordon also here as a potential utility guy I am not sure how yo manage AB's around both Gordon and Arraez (assuming we get a decent SS option).  and then there is Strotman. I have no strong opinion, except maybe he is similar to a number of other decent to good pitchign prospects we have,  SO if I Do not see Cavaco making it to the bigs with others ahead of him. and I see Duran and his big yet injured arm swapped with Puk and his big yet injured arm, then I ask... woudl I do Arraez and Strotman for Montas?  and the answer is an unsexy yes.

Great comments all around.  You hit a nerve with a lot of us, Cody.  I think the FO put themselves between a rock and a hard place with their inactivity last fall.  By not signing any legitimate free agent starter, they are left now with having to figure out how to add at least two legitimate starters in order to be competitive.  Montas, Castillo and a few others are good trade candidates, but what will it get us if it turns out to be Montas, Ryan, Ober and then the young kids in the rotation?  Now if they added Rodon IF he is healthy, and then traded for a Montas or Castillo, and added another starter like Pineda or a similar guy, then they might have the makings of a good rotation.  So, my answer to the question is "it depends."  IF Montas is it, pass on the trade because you won't be competitive this year and unless the FO changes course and decides to extend their starters, he will walk after 2023 and you will not get necessary value out of him.  IF on the other hand, the FO is going to sign a Rodon and a Pineda then a trade may make sense.  Finally, it also depends on what the Twins have to give up.  It may take more than what has been suggested to get a Montas type, and then you have to weigh losing Martin, or one of the young pitching studs, against two years of a Montas type.  I have to say there are so many good comments on both sides of this issue that I could probably click the heart on them all.  

I thought for just a brief second we may actualyl have an ORIGINAL, UNIQUE article here.  you touched on it for just a quick second Cody when you said the Twins FO didnt have a whisper on any FA pitcher. Thsi makes me more happy than if we DID try and get pitchers and failed. this at least tells me that whether I agree with it or not, the Twins FO ACTUALLY HAS A PLAN for once!!!  hehe.  Sure there were pitchers I wanted like Jon Gray and maybe Stroman, but this at least means the FO has their plan and it never included FA signings.  I think they are confident that Pineda will ultimately resgin. This means either the trade option was the way they were going the entire time, or actually I think more likely... I think they fancy themselves the new TB Rays. where they can develop pitching.  I said before and I thin i still agree with myself (although not 100%) that with a combination of #1 a large number of quality arms nearing MLB ready,   #2 A majority of them being on some sort of innings limit, and #3 the Twins LOVING (and me HATING) analytics and not letting our pitchers go past 5 innings anyways... we will see or #5 starter be actually TWO young propsects piggybacking each other, with each pitchers going 3-4 innings.  and I acually wouldnt be too shocked to see us end up with TWO sets of piggy backing starters!!!   Now THERE is an article for someone!!! fewer "general relievers" and more "piggy back starters" with 3-4 back end of the rotation power arms.

So because the Twins chose to sit out FA, and trading for one frontline starter doesn't solve all their issues, the answer is to cross fingers and do nothing? Waiting for the stars to align is a great way to ensure it never occurs. If the plan all along (a rather convenient shift of the goalposts/distraction from recent failures) was to graduate prospects then it'd make more sense, not less, to have some sort of stability around which these prospects could be integrated. 

I doubt the Twins make a move for anything close to a frontline SP, but that shouldn't be spun into some kind of positive about preserving the future. 

I think most of argument against the trade is to give the young unproven arms a chance but I think that with young unestablished arms and Bundy, the piggy-back approach will be accepted and I hope a large long releif corp, there'll be plenty of opportunity to see our young pitching prospects. By rotating AAAA system, we can play those w/ a hot hand w/o depending on all of them to produce and putting unduly pressure on them. Thus evaluating them, who's MLB ready.

I am listening here but maybe not convinced yet.

My thinking is to acquire a pitcher like Montas at a prospect cost similar to that we acquired for Berrios. That would effectively give them an extra year given the pitcher has 2023 control. I have no interest in trading prospects for a pitcher like Bassitt who has one year of control. I suppose you could be of the mind that they should just wait to acquire a Montas type next year and that will be a lower prospect cost buying just one year. Why just toss 2022 though? The Twins have one projection (from PECOTA) of 84 wins. Would Montas push that projection into the 87-88 range? That might get them in the playoffs and certainly would make for a more entertaining season.

On the other hand projections in the mid to upper 70s is probably more reasonable and Montas doesn’t do enough at that point. Maybe I ought to change my thinking here.

What a fantastic discussion.  But are we missing something.  Could the FO be planning on piggy-backing 8 starters with two pitching 3-4 innings each every fourth game?  If they are, they might sign someone or do a lessor Odorizzi type trade.  Or maybe they believe they have those 8 arms with a couple more likely ready by June?

I'd like to see the Twins go with their young guys.  I know the Twins have a lot of up and coming pitching prospects.  I know none of them will be able to pitch enough innings this year to man the staff with 5 guys.  I was thinking if the Twins were really going to punt on this season, which it looks like that will be happening at this point in time.  Then maybe instead of piggybacking guys together for 3 innings apiece maybe they should run out a 7 man rotation except throw Bundy every 5 days.  Then have the other guys throw 6 innings, or at least push their pitch count to a decent level and then that guy will have 6 or 7 days off before his next start, along with moving a few guys up and down to St Paul, that should keep all of the young guys over all innings down.  But it also allows them to go deeper into ball games so they are more ready next year to be quality starters next year?  Just a different idea if they are planning to go with their young guys.

3 hours ago, roger said:

Could the FO be planning on piggy-backing 8 starters with two pitching 3-4 innings each every fourth game?

This is a very good point, and the FO hinted at this recently, if I'm not mistaken. I think the Rays have done this with young pitchers, and it might be the right move for this staff at this point. I still would have preferred 1-2 solid FA signings, but this is a reasonable Plan B for an organization that needs to learn how to develop frontline starters.