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Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins' rosters. Hitters were included, but the analysis focused on pitchers. Rocco Baldelli’s club would benefit from both starting and relief arms, but we’ll start in the bullpen.
Following Wes Johnson’s departure for LSU, Pete Maki has taken over as pitching coach. We haven’t and won’t see some seismic shift in the relief group, but it’s clear that names like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagan have walked a tightrope at times this year. It’s necessary that Minnesota supplements its group and brings in help.
Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire:
Michael Fulmer - Detroit Tigers - 29 yrs old 0.7 fWAR 2.15 ERA 3.12 FIP 8.9 K/9
The former 1st round pick and top prospect has transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a 2.73 ERA across 99 innings. His 3.36 FIP suggests the ERA is relatively believable. He has a solid 9.3 K/9 in that time, though it has dipped some this season. He’s been incredibly stingy when looking at home run rates, and that’s something that has bit Twins relievers to this point. Fulmer has a solid 2.22 xERA but the 4.25 xFIP could be concerning. He has also had arm issues in the past and his velocity is down a bit from where it was last season. Signed for just $4.95 million this season, he’s a free agent in 2023.
Joe Mantiply - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 0.9 fWAR 1.20 ERA 1.92 FIP 8.7 K/9
Mantiply is a well-traveled veteran that didn’t establish himself in the majors until last season with Arizona. Across 39 2/3 innings, he posted a solid 3.40 ERA with even better peripherals. This season he’s substantiated it by performing better. Mantiply owns a 1.75 xERA and a 2.48 xFIP. He rarely serves up a long ball and he’s got a 29/1 K/BB across 30 innings this season. He is one of just three pitchers in the majors yet to allow a barreled ball this season, and he’s been a shining light on an otherwise baseball Diamondbacks ballclub. As a lefty, he could bring an otherwise under-represented handedness to the relief core. Mantiply throws just 90.6 mph with his fastball, just a bit below where he was last season, but he’s a sinker slider pitcher. Mantiply is pre-arbitration and won’t hit the market until 2027.
Anthony Bass - Miami Dolphins - 34 yrs old 0.9 fWAR 1.60 ERA 2.34 FIP 8.0 K/9
One of baseball’s more consistent relievers since 2018, Bass has ratcheted up his performance this season for the Marlins. He had a decent year in 2021 but owns a 2.74 xERA and 3.77 xFIP in 2022. He’s giving up a career-low number of free passes and longballs, while also being within a sub-1.000 WHIP for just the second time in his career. Pushing his fastball to 95.1 mph this season, he’s near a career-best in average velocity. Bass dominates with his slider, a pitch that Minnesota loves to use. He’s in the final year of his contract with the Marlins but carries a $3 million team option for 2023.
David Bednar - Pittsburgh Pirates - 27 yrs old 1.0 fWAR 2.43 ERA 2.52 FIP 12.2 K/9
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a surprisingly low number of enticing assets despite being a team willing to sell, but that’s what happens when you’re bad. Wil Crowe could be moved from their pen too, but Bednar is the prize. A 2.82 xERA and 2.92 xFIP are both very strong. The strikeout numbers are great, and Bednar allows just a 27.4% hard-hit rate. He averages 97 mph on his fastball and is generating a career-best 15.8% whiff rate. Bednar has been a dominant arm out of the pen for the Pirates each of the past two seasons and has closing experience as well. With youth to his credit and under team control through 2026, he’ll have a higher price tag.
Scott Effross - Chicago Cubs - 28 yrs old 1.1 fWAR 2.62 ERA 1.63 FIP 11.5 K/9
After signing Marcus Stroman this winter I’d imagine the Cubs were hoping to be better than this. They aren’t though, and Effross is the gem of the bullpen. Making 14 appearances in 2021, Effross has taken a small sample size and improved upon it. His 2.15 xERA and 2.42 xFIP are both impressive, and he’s avoided damage thanks to a 21.8% hard-hit rate. Effross is not a big velocity guy, averaging just over 90 mph on his fastball, but the sinker slider combo is one the Twins continue to work with. Effross doesn’t get a massive amount of swinging strikes, but he’s generated a good chase rate and is allowing just a 77.5% contact rate. Like Bednar, Effross is younger and remains under team control through 2027.
Which reliever would you like to see the Twins trade for and why?
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