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  • The Five Best Relief Pitcher Targets for the Twins


    Ted Schwerzler

    We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. It’s all but certain they’ll make additions to a squad they signed Carlos Correa to play for, and the bullpen may be their most integral need.

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    Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins' rosters. Hitters were included, but the analysis focused on pitchers. Rocco Baldelli’s club would benefit from both starting and relief arms, but we’ll start in the bullpen.

    Following Wes Johnson’s departure for LSU, Pete Maki has taken over as pitching coach. We haven’t and won’t see some seismic shift in the relief group, but it’s clear that names like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagan have walked a tightrope at times this year. It’s necessary that Minnesota supplements its group and brings in help.

    Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire:

    Michael Fulmer - Detroit Tigers - 29 yrs old 0.7 fWAR 2.15 ERA 3.12 FIP 8.9 K/9
    The former 1st round pick and top prospect has transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a 2.73 ERA across 99 innings. His 3.36 FIP suggests the ERA is relatively believable. He has a solid 9.3 K/9 in that time, though it has dipped some this season. He’s been incredibly stingy when looking at home run rates, and that’s something that has bit Twins relievers to this point. Fulmer has a solid 2.22 xERA but the 4.25 xFIP could be concerning. He has also had arm issues in the past and his velocity is down a bit from where it was last season. Signed for just $4.95 million this season, he’s a free agent in 2023.

    Joe Mantiply - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 0.9 fWAR 1.20 ERA 1.92 FIP 8.7 K/9
    Mantiply is a well-traveled veteran that didn’t establish himself in the majors until last season with Arizona. Across 39 2/3 innings, he posted a solid 3.40 ERA with even better peripherals. This season he’s substantiated it by performing better. Mantiply owns a 1.75 xERA and a 2.48 xFIP. He rarely serves up a long ball and he’s got a 29/1 K/BB across 30 innings this season. He is one of just three pitchers in the majors yet to allow a barreled ball this season, and he’s been a shining light on an otherwise baseball Diamondbacks ballclub. As a lefty, he could bring an otherwise under-represented handedness to the relief core. Mantiply throws just 90.6 mph with his fastball, just a bit below where he was last season, but he’s a sinker slider pitcher. Mantiply is pre-arbitration and won’t hit the market until 2027.

    Anthony Bass - Miami Dolphins - 34 yrs old 0.9 fWAR 1.60 ERA 2.34 FIP 8.0 K/9
    One of baseball’s more consistent relievers since 2018, Bass has ratcheted up his performance this season for the Marlins. He had a decent year in 2021 but owns a 2.74 xERA and 3.77 xFIP in 2022. He’s giving up a career-low number of free passes and longballs, while also being within a sub-1.000 WHIP for just the second time in his career. Pushing his fastball to 95.1 mph this season, he’s near a career-best in average velocity. Bass dominates with his slider, a pitch that Minnesota loves to use. He’s in the final year of his contract with the Marlins but carries a $3 million team option for 2023.

    David Bednar - Pittsburgh Pirates - 27 yrs old 1.0 fWAR 2.43 ERA 2.52 FIP 12.2 K/9
    The Pittsburgh Pirates have a surprisingly low number of enticing assets despite being a team willing to sell, but that’s what happens when you’re bad. Wil Crowe could be moved from their pen too, but Bednar is the prize. A 2.82 xERA and 2.92 xFIP are both very strong. The strikeout numbers are great, and Bednar allows just a 27.4% hard-hit rate. He averages 97 mph on his fastball and is generating a career-best 15.8% whiff rate. Bednar has been a dominant arm out of the pen for the Pirates each of the past two seasons and has closing experience as well. With youth to his credit and under team control through 2026, he’ll have a higher price tag.

    Scott Effross - Chicago Cubs - 28 yrs old 1.1 fWAR 2.62 ERA 1.63 FIP 11.5 K/9
    After signing Marcus Stroman this winter I’d imagine the Cubs were hoping to be better than this. They aren’t though, and Effross is the gem of the bullpen. Making 14 appearances in 2021, Effross has taken a small sample size and improved upon it. His 2.15 xERA and 2.42 xFIP are both impressive, and he’s avoided damage thanks to a 21.8% hard-hit rate. Effross is not a big velocity guy, averaging just over 90 mph on his fastball, but the sinker slider combo is one the Twins continue to work with. Effross doesn’t get a massive amount of swinging strikes, but he’s generated a good chase rate and is allowing just a 77.5% contact rate. Like Bednar, Effross is younger and remains under team control through 2027.

    Which reliever would you like to see the Twins trade for and why?

     

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    This is a good list.  I still like Jorge Lopez, even though he blew two saves when pitching against the Twins.  Obviously, Bednar is the prize and would be VERY expensive.  As bad as the closers have been for the Dodgers, I see them making a play with their deep farm system, but the Twins could certainly look for cheaper options.  We just simply need a deeper bullpen.  I still think there are some "In-House" arms as possibilities, as Cody Pirkl wrote not long ago too.  

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    Any of them would help, but don’t want Wallner included in any trade. He’s having a breakout year that I believe is sustainable, and he’s not a base clogger. 

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    Bass is probably the only one get able without having to over pay due to team control or within division.  

     

    I would kick the tires on Effross tho, he might be a guy worth getting with team control and could learn and work with Joe Smith.  

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    I would welcome some of these players but at what cost?  Personally, I would focus on players on expiring contracts like Robertson, Bard, Fulmer, Chafin, etc. who have experience pitching in high leverage spots and in the postseason if possible. Only If one of the young studs is available on a good deal and not an overpay would I consider them. 

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    1 hour ago, RJA said:

    I would welcome some of these players but at what cost?  Personally, I would focus on players on expiring contracts like Robertson, Bard, Fulmer, Chafin, etc. who have experience pitching in high leverage spots and in the postseason if possible. Only If one of the young studs is available on a good deal and not an overpay would I consider them. 

    I agree with this approach.  Don’t sell the farm to get a long-term option, just get what we need to make it through this year.

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    I like them all and throw in Bard & Robertson. I don't think DET will deal w/ us, Bednar too expensive IMO MIA will keep Bass. I agree that FO will look for a 1 yr. deal because they want Pagan as the future closer no matter what.

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    Lopez (mentioned in a comment, not the article) worries me, unless for some strange reason he could be acquired cheaply.  Until last year he was a mediocrity, even in relief.  He's been elite for less than a year, and I have visions of him turning back into a pumpkin - apart from the pumpkin-turning the Twins inflicted on him this past week.

    / Update: he gave up a run yesterday against Texas too.

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    1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

    I like them all and throw in Bard & Robertson. I don't think DET will deal w/ us, Bednar too expensive IMO MIA will keep Bass. I agree that FO will look for a 1 yr. deal because they want Pagan as the future closer no matter what.

    I doubt Detroit would care much about trading with the Twins for Fulmer.  They would be giving up a guy that probably won't resign with them.  Sure, they'd have to face him for the rest of the season, but they're out of contention, so that shouldn't matter much.  

    It's the Twins that might be warry.  They'd probably have to give up a prospect that could come back to haunt them for 6 years.  I personally think it's worth the risk. 

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    Bednar would be likely to cost as much a Kimbrel did before he became a White Sox. Effross wouldn’t be too far behind on that price tag. Mantiply a bit further back. I would doubt the FO would spend that kind of capital unless there were prospects that the other team loved that the FO wasn’t that enamored with. If either were with Oakland or Miami it would be interesting to be a fly on the wall. Detroit will trade Fulmer to anyone. They are not going anywhere this year, he is a free agent afterwards. Divisional rivalries do not matter. This FO might be reluctant to give Detroit a good prospect.  Seeing someone for a few years on a rental wouldn’t be fun. Then again, it is Detroit. I am sure when Fulmer is traded the people here will be more than correct with the “we could have matched that garbage”

    That leaves Bass

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    15 hours ago, RJA said:

    I would welcome some of these players but at what cost?  Personally, I would focus on players on expiring contracts like Robertson, Bard, Fulmer, Chafin, etc. who have experience pitching in high leverage spots and in the postseason if possible. Only If one of the young studs is available on a good deal and not an overpay would I consider them. 

    Who cares about cost?  They have the money and if they go far in the playoffs it will pay off this and next year.  We have to stop going cheap and play with the big-boys!

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    I like the list of effective relievers, but outside of Bass, I don’t think the Twins should chase any of them. The Twins can save prospects by chasing after short-term options, plus relievers can change drastically in the matter of a singular season, dropping hefty 2-3 Prospects for Lopez, Bednar, or Effross would be very costly. Stick to consistency and role in some veterans.

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    The Angels are in a nosedive and they have some expensive, decent relievers on the roster. Raisel Iglesias has a contract that could turn ugly but Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup are just modestly overpaid. 

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    I like Bass & Bednar and they may cost what there worth. That’s ok. The Marlins are looking for position players especially out field. Celestino or Urbina. Pittsburgh (Bednar) may take more pitching and position prospects. Sabato, Canterino  & Strotsman. When I look at the Twins current roster promotions and the prospects list I see the named prospects as extendable. I also see Martin & maybe Wallner extendable for a starting pitcher such as Lopez (Marlins), Costillio (Reds), Montas (A’s), Mahle (Reds).  Another Marlin pitching  prospect who is on the ten day injury list Cabrera is very intriguing to me. 

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