Projecting Minnesota’s Competition in the Carlos Correa Bidding War

I think the Cubs are likely to give Correa an offer. The Mariners might want to upgrade at SS. The Angels have deep pockets and need talent.

The Twins had a hard time with the length and dollars needed for Donaldson.  I highly doubt they'll want to double the years and more than double the cost of that contract for any one player.  

Correa couldn't find a buyer last winter at 10 years and $350mil so high probability he won't this year either.

Three teams looking at the free agents shortstops more than likely will resign their own guys, which their fans know rather than sign someone new. The Yankees could have signed someone last winter if they were in that market, so I think they will go with their top prospects next year. I don't think the Cubs have enough talent to attract Correa so I don't think he'll go there.

Philadelphia made it as a wild card this year, but have to compete with the Mets and Braves. I think that is the most likely place for him to wind up.

The Twins should immediately offer to add 5 years, $150M to their current 2 year $70M deal for a 7 year $220M guarantee. That will likely get topped by someone offering 8 years $240M on the open market.

It will be interesting to see if Boras wants to match the total value of Seager's contract and get Correa 9 years $290M or settle for the highest annual value for a shortstop and get 6 years $215M. Boras is always looking to set a new benchmark.

24 minutes ago, gman said:

Correa couldn't find a buyer last winter at 10 years and $350mil so high probability he won't this year either.

Three teams looking at the free agents shortstops more than likely will resign their own guys, which their fans know rather than sign someone new. The Yankees could have signed someone last winter if they were in that market, so I think they will go with their top prospects next year. I don't think the Cubs have enough talent to attract Correa so I don't think he'll go there.

Philadelphia made it as a wild card this year, but have to compete with the Mets and Braves. I think that is the most likely place for him to wind up.

I agree with Gman that Correa won't find any takers close to that 10yr/ $350 deal. All the big spenders that go to Dior to get their belts have already have their expensive belts. Many have SS prospects that are soon ready so aren't looking for a long term deal. Also Correa still fights that negative cheating stigma that still lingers. I'm not too familar with Philadelphia but they could be one of very few that are interested.

I'm sure this FO will wait & maybe try to match a reasonable long term deal or go again with a higher $/ short term deal. I like our chances of resigning him but this FO should be ready with a good plan B &C.

Correct me if I am wrong, but during the five days following the season that Correa will decide whether or not he is opting out, the Twins are the only team he can negotiate with.  Correct?

Thus, I expect the Twins will, or will not, work to get him signed to whatever extension makes sense to the Twins and Carlos.  If they don't get him signed, he will opt out and following the World Series a month or so later will become a free agent.  Although anything is possible, if they don't get him signed in the next week I don't see him returning to Minnesota.

Twins competition in signing Correa? They would have to offer him significantly more than $35m for one year with another even higher option. I doubt they will do that, or tie them into anything north of $25m a year for five or mroe years, which will not egt it done. Any other team could/would do that.

They lucked out on the Correa contract. Got a bit of p.r. value. But it could've beeen a bigtime miostake if he had been injured for a good portion of this season, which would've meant a pickup by Correa of next season.

The pain is the Twins wish they were in a little better position with Lewis ready to step-in-out-of-spring with Lewis.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think Carlos is going to have any problem finding his big deal. I think the reason he has Boras as an agent now is because the guy he had last year wildly misread the FA situation before the lockout and cost Correa a huge deal then. So out with the old, in with the new super-agent. I think he gets a Seager sized deal, and I think there's multiple teams willing to give it to him. He doesn't care how competitive the Cubs are. If they're at 10/325 and that's the highest he can get he's going to Chicago.

I think he put the cheating stuff behind him this year by having his 2nd best OPS+ season of his career in a new location. And that's all blown out of proportion anyways. The teams looking at him know the vast majority of their fanbase will be on board with signing him because he's probably the best overall SS in baseball. Fans just want wins and don't care about garbage cans from 6 years ago. Even Dodgers fans will be happy if he gets them Ws. 

As for the teams in his market:
Yankees: would be surprised if they changed course and went after him hard this offseason, but they're always going to be a player in these things even if it's just to raise the price for other teams

Dodgers: I'd guess they bring back Turner before chasing Correa, but if Turner heads back east (I think I saw somewhere there's rumors he'd prefer to be back on the east coast) I'd expect the Dodgers to be on the phone with Boras immediately.

Red Sox: Think they're a real player in this. Bogaerts is a terrible fielder and would be best moving to 3B, but they're going to extend Devers for 3B. Don't think they want to move Story back to SS so I think Correa is a big target for them. Along with a ton of pitching.

Braves: Would be shocked if he ended up here. Think Swanson for much cheaper is the most likely outcome, but even if they lose him I'd be surprised if they went big enough to get Correa.

White Sox: Would also be surprised by this. Think moving Anderson off short would be huge for them, but I don't see them having this kind of spending ability moving forward.

Phillies: I think they'll certainly kick the tires. Stott is a big time prospect so they won't just ignore him, and they didn't trade for Sosa for no reason, but they want to win and Correa would go a long ways in helping that. I think he'd make a ton of sense there, but also think they may be more in need of OF help. Especially someone who can defend a bunch of the grass to cover up for Schwarber and Castellanos.

Cardinals: I don't know why, but they feel like a dark horse to me in this. I don't know that they have the payroll room to do this, but he'd fit in perfect there. 

Giants: If they're willing to admit paying Crawford for his last gasp, late in career spike year was a mistake and move on I think I'd put them as the front runners for Correa. They have the finances for it and he'd fit that organization quite well.

Angels: Would be surprised if they handed out another mega-deal, but he'd be the best one they did (outside of the Trout extension). They need to spend on pitching, but if the owner decides he wants another shiny offensive toy they won't find one much shinier than Correa.

Then there's always that 1 "mystery team" you have to worry about. It just takes 1 owner saying "go get me Correa" and he's getting some crazy deal. I don't think anyone saw Seager and Semien to Texas coming last year. Just takes 1 team. So I'm quite sure he's going to get his mega-deal, and I think there's a number of teams that will be in on the bidding. I actually feel like St Louis and San Fran would be my first 2 guesses on where he goes, but I have no real reason to believe that.

This seems like a more accurate list...At the very least, swap out the Chicago teams.  And STL and SF seem to have at least decent odds.  It will definitely be interesting to see what happens with Correa and the other big name shortstops.

I wonder if we could add a 7 year 210 million extension to current contract.  He still would have opt outs.  Maybe add a few more.  And the total contract would be 10 years and 315 million.  

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think Carlos is going to have any problem finding his big deal. I think the reason he has Boras as an agent now is because the guy he had last year wildly misread the FA situation before the lockout and cost Correa a huge deal then. So out with the old, in with the new super-agent. I think he gets a Seager sized deal, and I think there's multiple teams willing to give it to him. He doesn't care how competitive the Cubs are. If they're at 10/325 and that's the highest he can get he's going to Chicago.

I think he put the cheating stuff behind him this year by having his 2nd best OPS+ season of his career in a new location. And that's all blown out of proportion anyways. The teams looking at him know the vast majority of their fanbase will be on board with signing him because he's probably the best overall SS in baseball. Fans just want wins and don't care about garbage cans from 6 years ago. Even Dodgers fans will be happy if he gets them Ws. 

As for the teams in his market:
Yankees: would be surprised if they changed course and went after him hard this offseason, but they're always going to be a player in these things even if it's just to raise the price for other teams

Dodgers: I'd guess they bring back Turner before chasing Correa, but if Turner heads back east (I think I saw somewhere there's rumors he'd prefer to be back on the east coast) I'd expect the Dodgers to be on the phone with Boras immediately.

Red Sox: Think they're a real player in this. Bogaerts is a terrible fielder and would be best moving to 3B, but they're going to extend Devers for 3B. Don't think they want to move Story back to SS so I think Correa is a big target for them. Along with a ton of pitching.

Braves: Would be shocked if he ended up here. Think Swanson for much cheaper is the most likely outcome, but even if they lose him I'd be surprised if they went big enough to get Correa.

White Sox: Would also be surprised by this. Think moving Anderson off short would be huge for them, but I don't see them having this kind of spending ability moving forward.

Phillies: I think they'll certainly kick the tires. Stott is a big time prospect so they won't just ignore him, and they didn't trade for Sosa for no reason, but they want to win and Correa would go a long ways in helping that. I think he'd make a ton of sense there, but also think they may be more in need of OF help. Especially someone who can defend a bunch of the grass to cover up for Schwarber and Castellanos.

Cardinals: I don't know why, but they feel like a dark horse to me in this. I don't know that they have the payroll room to do this, but he'd fit in perfect there. 

Giants: If they're willing to admit paying Crawford for his last gasp, late in career spike year was a mistake and move on I think I'd put them as the front runners for Correa. They have the finances for it and he'd fit that organization quite well.

Angels: Would be surprised if they handed out another mega-deal, but he'd be the best one they did (outside of the Trout extension). They need to spend on pitching, but if the owner decides he wants another shiny offensive toy they won't find one much shinier than Correa.

Then there's always that 1 "mystery team" you have to worry about. It just takes 1 owner saying "go get me Correa" and he's getting some crazy deal. I don't think anyone saw Seager and Semien to Texas coming last year. Just takes 1 team. So I'm quite sure he's going to get his mega-deal, and I think there's a number of teams that will be in on the bidding. I actually feel like St Louis and San Fran would be my first 2 guesses on where he goes, but I have no real reason to believe that.

St. Louis has been thrown around as a fit. I can definitely see that. They would have three hall of famers in their infield, which would be nuts. Then they could move Edman to 2b. 

Yankees and Dodgers fans HATE Correa. I can't see that working out.

The Angels already have the Trout deal (good) and Rendon (bad) and want to extend Ohtani. Correa also wants to go to a contender, and I doubt he sees them as a contender. I mean the Angels stink. 

Giants-Yes.

Mariners-Yes.

Red Sox-Yes. 

Phillies-Yes.

CWS-No. 

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

Yankees and Dodgers fans HATE Correa. I can't see that working out.

Come on. You think if Correa puts up a 140 OPS+, 5-6 WAR season in 2023 in a Yankee and Dodger uniform, their fans are so stupid that they’d have a problem with that? Nonsense. He’d be an upgrade at the position for literally every team in baseball. The one and only team for which he wouldn’t be a clear upgrade…the Padres…have a CURRENT cheater at the position.

Minnesota’s competition for Correa?  That implies the Twins will be in there trying to out bid other teams. I got a good chuckle out of that one. 

I thought this was a Randball parody article when I read the title.

We’re more likely to find Babe Ruth’s DNA in an amber-crystallized mosquito and splice it into Ozzie Smith’s to play SS and bat clean up next year.

Even if we committed to a significant term, which we won’t, he’ll likely take a discount to get the hell out of here.  He’s a high-end competitor.  He’s not wasting his career away with Nick freaking Gordon protecting him while getting his arse kicked by garbage teams in the worst division in baseball.  He might sooner retire and play for the Raymond Rockets (where the odds of winning anothet World Series are equivalent).

To partially use an analogy from Carlos:  I would rather have the Twins sign a guy from Northern Tool and Equipment than go to Dior to sign Correa. - a chain saw rips through the opposition better than an overpriced gold chain. 

Is the market better for Correa this offseason than last?  Honest question.

It seems like it is not much better, so why do we think someone is suddenly going to through 300+ million at him THIS off season

I don't see NY, Boston or LA being big players for reasons mostly already covered.

Without them bidding other teams up.... it will be hard to break the bank

Phili seems like the most likely landing place, but if nobody is bidding them up....... (That is where is Boras comes in I guess... he certainly has tricked teams into bidding themselves up in the past)

I like Correa. I've become a fan of his. Despite his final numbers looking good, I don't believe he produced up to his contract and reputation. He was just too often invisible at the plate the 1st half. And I know a late start and his illness was probably part of that. But I think he's a great player, better than his production in 2022, and has a very good career going forward.

He's not old! But he is one year older now. I've always had a hard time buying in to the 10yr $350M idea. Just because Texas did almost the same with Seager doesn't mean someone else will be willing to do the same, or better that deal.

The Yankees have to re-sign Judge. Period! And they've been very protective of their young SS prospects. Even with their ultra deep pockets, they've been best when building from within. And even they have a budget. So I say no. 

Boston, LA, and Atlanta have what they need already in place if they just re-sign and keep continuity. Why would they spend, potentially, even more rather than keep what they have? Of course, I'd they did, now there's a new SS player in the field looking for a team and a deal and that changes the complexion of things.

I don't buy in to the Cubs or the Cardinals. Despite deep pockets, the Cubs ownership seems to have a history of being frugal. They went all in a couple years ago and then tore things down. Just a hunch, but I don't think they feel they are ready to make that kind of 1 player splash right now. The Cardinals have ALWAYS been one of the best run franchises in all of MLB. And they haven't been adverse to spending good $ on a great ballplayer. But they are already very good, and don't they have to try re-sign Arenado?

The Phillies, Angels, Giants and Dirty Sox make sense to me as competition. 

The Philles haven't been shy lately about spending to chase winning. They're chasing both Atlanta and the Mets right now. Are they willing to add another big name and contract to get it done? The Giants have made splashes before. But after riding career highs from just about everyone in 2021 and then falling way back this season, are they looking a re-build or re-load? The Dirty Sox have Anderson at SS already. They are an interesting mix of veterans and youth. Can they convince Anderson to move to a different spot? They might be a real player to help erase 2022. And the Angels, to me, are the mystery team. They have $! They need pitching and keep losing despite having 2 of the best players in all of MLB. The SP FA market isn't as good as last year, and their huge run at drafting only pitching isn't going to pay off for a couple of years. But they seem to have a history of making moves well outside the box. Might they just blow Correa and Boras out of the water to add a 3rd star player without having a complete team and hope pitching turns out soon?

IMO, the teams to seriously sign Correa, in no exact order are the Phillies, Giants, Angels and MAYBE the Dirty Sox. This makes sense to me. (I think it would be a mistake for the Angels and Sox, but who knows). I'm thinking depressed value, only slightly, due to one year older and post covid attendance, etc, etc, at 8yrs and $280M. (Remember,  he already got $35M this year).

Going to say this one more time and then I promise myself I won't get drawn in to yet another "Correa what if" thread ever again. The Twins will not get a hometown discount from Correa/Boras unless we're talking about very close numbers and Correa and family really, really liking Minnesota. 

The only way he re-signs here is:

1] The market is depressed due to existing payrolls, low attendance affecting payrolls, teams up against their numbers, potential landing sites wanting to keep their own players, etc.

2] Even with factor #1, the Twins will need to go at least 7yrs, possibly 8, which would take him to age 34-35, at around $30-35M per...depending again on factor #1...which means a MINIMUM of $210M and probably closer to $270-280M. And they would have to probably front load the deal, which they could, at $35-40M the first few years to help offset the last few years when Correa probably declines and maybe changes positions.

That's it. 7 or 8 years and front loaded and knowing he won't be the same player in his last couple of years, probably. Hell, maybe he pulls a Ripken and can still be a quality SS who produces at that age. 

And MAYBE, for various reasons, the market just goes unexpectedly dry and he has to "settle" for 6-7 years only and "only" $30M on average per year. I know, fantasy land, right? But I've seen crazier things happen.

Sorry, but unless the market or the Twins go nuts, he's not coming back.

Time for plan B.

Honestly, as much as I'm a fan of Correa and would love to keep him somehow, are the Twins maybe better off spending his salary over the entire ark of the team rather than the one player????

Correa is a leader, he has the intangibles that so many just do not have. I am writing this minutes after watching Palacios hit his first career HR in a blowout loss vs. the White Sox. As Palacios crossed home plate, Correa was the only one out of the dugout applauding his teammate in a meaningless game, blowout loss. Correa will be expensive, there is no doubt about it, but the Twins should do everything in their power to retain his services. Him and Buxton leading the team and molding the mindsets of our prospects coming up for years to come will pay huge dividends for this franchises future. It will create the winning culture in this organization, even if this year was not a good sample, largely in part to uncontrollable injuries.

It's simple, the Twins already have another 2 years signed with Correa, which he will soon get out of. This offer should stand and not a penny more. If he leaves, then fine, they save a lot of salary for others and will develop a younger infielder. Case closed.

I expect Boras to use the Twins as leverage against the field.

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

they would have to probably front load the deal

Nobody needs to front load a deal. Always better economically to back load it. Money costs less tomorrow. MLB luxury tax will be higher later. If nothing else you can put the "front load" money in the bank and draw interest on it until you have to pay it later.

Given the Twins current payroll situation, they should be able to afford Correa, and I am hoping they do.  If they intend to compete, they need a player like him, since he is covering one of the only black holes in the Twins defense.

If you think Lewis can fill the hole (I would really worry about this), maybe you get a stopgap, but Twins are setup to compete now.  Kepler and Polanco will soon be off the books, as will Gray, Mahle, and Maeda.  Don't waste their last year in a Twins uniform, by not trying to compete.  Other choice(not my choice) would be to move Polanco back to SS until Lewis is ready, and use either Arraez or Julien at 2B (I am hoping Julien), Miranda at 3B and Kirloff and Arraez at 1B.  You then have Kepler, Gordon, Buxton, Laurach, Wallner as outfielders (Gordon should not be used in the infield any more except break glass in time of emergency.). 

12 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

To partially use an analogy from Carlos:  I would rather have the Twins sign a guy from Northern Tool and Equipment than go to Dior to sign Correa. - a chain saw rips through the opposition better than an overpriced gold chain. 

This is possibly the worst analogy I've read on this site.

What you're saying is you'd rather have a worse shortstop that makes references to things you're familiar with, which is dumb.

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

Given the Twins current payroll situation, they should be able to afford Correa, and I am hoping they do.  If they intend to compete, they need a player like him, since he is covering one of the only black holes in the Twins defense.

If you think Lewis can fill the hole (I would really worry about this), maybe you get a stopgap, but Twins are setup to compete now.  Kepler and Polanco will soon be off the books, as will Gray, Mahle, and Maeda.  Don't waste their last year in a Twins uniform, by not trying to compete.  Other choice(not my choice) would be to move Polanco back to SS until Lewis is ready, and use either Arraez or Julien at 2B (I am hoping Julien), Miranda at 3B and Kirloff and Arraez at 1B.  You then have Kepler, Gordon, Buxton, Laurach, Wallner as outfielders (Gordon should not be used in the infield any more except break glass in time of emergency.). 

I like everything about this comment except you are dismissing Urshela. In hindsight, he was perhaps our most consistent player this year from start to finish, both bat and glove. His stats vs Donaldson's make that trade a huge winner for the Twins. Love Urshela. Would not surprise me if he is our SS to begin next year when Correa signs elsewhere. I do not see us in the running for a long term $300+M dollar contract for anyone. 

This team is not even reasonably close to competing for a title.  Correa and Buxton being great together?  Where is that fantasy coming from.  Buxton has and will continue to miss 40-50% of games due to injury.  He is severely injury prone and henceforth not dependable.  IMO the Twins are not in competition with anyone for Correa.  The Twins aren't going to give him that kind of money and years.  Besides, if you do pay him that much then many fans like me will be complaining about the Twins not having enough payroll to add players to make the team competitive.  Carlos best offense month was September.  Just a big salary drive for himself against normally sub par pitching as teams roll out unproven pitchers to see what they can do.  What good is it to sign a big time player if you aren't going to be able to surround him with other good players?  I say let him go.  It didn't do much good to have him this year.  He was in hiding for several months offensively when the club needed him.  Now that he is padding his stats to make it appear he had a good season is not missed on most.

To paraphrase that wise philosopher, Pogo: "I have seen the enemy/competition, and it is us." Pay the man what he is worth. He is arguably the best fielder at the most critical position on the field, he is a proven exceptional leader, a huge positive influence on the younger players, and a good enough hitter with enough power and a rocket arm, to be moved to 3B when he slows down at SS. He has been healthy. He is capable of being the team leader. He is a better player than "The Captain", who is/will be HOF. He would be an absolute joy to watch represent the Twins for the next 8 years. Find out what the least he will sign for and pay it. Break out of trying to be "slightly above average:".