Player Predictions: DH Byung Ho Park

Parks’ Nexen teammate in 2014, Jung Ho Kang signed with Pittsburgh and spent his rookie season with the Pirates. After a slow start, he played quite well and if not for a late-season injury, he was giving Kris Bryant a run for NL rookie of the year.

Let’s take a look at Kang’s transition last year:

Here is Byung Ho Park’s 2015 in Korea:

While the numbers are pretty similar in the two players’ year before moving to MLB, there are some differences. Park had been better for longer. Park walked a bit more, but he struck out significantly more, and therein lies the concern. If it was just about those overall numbers, we could do some basic math and figure that Park would OPS somewhere around .780. But that strikeout rate is certainly more alarming coming into MLB than Kang’s was.

Spring training has shown that Park can perform. He should not be overwhelmed. He hit three home runs, all on fastballs. He took quality at-bats. He drove in runs. He gave reason for optimism, and yet fans need to know that there will be some difficult moments and weeks for Park. Just like any rookie. But I’m more optimistic now that he can make the transition.

So, what is in store for him in 2016? Below you’ll find my predictions for Park in 2016.

KEY NUMBERS

29 - Though he is a rookie, and arguably a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, he will turn 30 in mid-July. To some extent, he is what he is at this point. He’s actually closer to the end of his prime than the middle of it. However, he is still capable of adjusting, he certainly will have to, and we all hope he will.

105... but 303 - Yes, Park was a power hitting star in the KBO, knocking 105 home runs over the last two seasons. However, he also struck out 303 times in that same time frame. His strikeout rate was between 24% and 26% the last couple of years. I would predict that he’ll strike out closer to 30% in his upcoming rookie season.

PREDICTIONS

Byung Ho Park: 471 at-bats, .247/.318/.423 (.741), 23 doubles, 0 triples, 20 home runs.

With the transition and the rough times I would expect Park to get a day off each week and maybe two days off in the rougher weeks. Remember that Molitor will want to get Oswaldo Arcia’s bat into the lineup on a somewhat regular basis and DH is a good spot for that.

As you can see, I predict him to struggle. I think that .741 OPS will be right around league average, and maybe that’s pretty good for a rookie. My hope, of course, would be that we will see improvement from April to June, from June to August, and so on. He will hit some home runs. I feel like my number might be a little low, and he will hit doubles too.

While those numbers might seem disappointing, I do believe that Park is going to be fine, and I think he’s shown enough that over the course of his four (and optionally five) years with the Twins under this contract, he will become a better than average hitter with even more power.

YOUR TURN

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byung Ho Park in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

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