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The Twins signed the player who may be the hardest to remember from the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series roster at bar trivia to a minor-league deal. Andrew Stevenson, 28, spent all of his 2022 season at the Nationals Triple-A affiliate, the Rochester Red Wings. He had been removed from their 40-man roster early in the season and was never called back up. 
Stevenson had spent his entire career in the Nationals organization. He made his MLB debut in 2017 and accumulated 449 plate appearances in 248 games from 2017-2021. 
His greatest asset is his defense, but Stevenson has shown flashes of offensive production at times in the minor leagues and in the big leagues. During the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Stevenson posted a .366/.447/.732 (1.179 OPS), though it was in just 47 plate appearances. 
His 2022 season with the Red Wings was solid. He hit .279/.344/.457 (.801) with 16 home runs and 67 RBI in 135 games for the Red Wings. 
Stevenson’s addition to the Twins organization is great for any pending injuries. However, the possibility of his call-up would likely entail injuries to the other left-handed hitting outfielders including Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Mark Contreras. 
The timing of the signing is interesting. Gilberto Celestino had surgery on his thumb and will miss two months while rehabbing. Plus, the plan was to let him develop in St. Paul this season anyway. Byron Buxton has yet to play this spring. Nick Gordon has been out with a high ankle sprain. Could it mean those players will be out longer than anticipated? Alex Kirilloff has also not played in a spring game yet which might mean that Joey Gallo may find himself at first base early in the season. Providing the Saints with some outfield options is also wise. 
Stevenson will likely receive nearly every day playing time with the Saints. His hitting abilities will be exciting to see against Triple-A pitching. If Stevenson ends up in a game for the Twins, hopefully, it will be due to hitting too well to ignore and not due to injuries. 
While this is just a minor-league signing, what do you think it means? Discuss in the COMMENTS below. 

After originally planning to play for Puerto Rico, newly re-signed superstar Carlos Correa will be out of the tournament. He will miss some time this week however as his wife Daniella is scheduled to give birth to their second son. It’s the second time Correa will have missed an opportunity to play third base alongside countryman Francisco Lindor. In his place, Jose Miranda could have been the option at the hot corner, but he too will stay with the Twins as he rehabs a sore throwing shoulder.
Miranda and Correa aren't alone in stepping away from the tournament. Star reliever Jhoan Duran also opted out despite already touching 102 mph during live at bats. After signing with Minnesota, Donovan Solano decided he would take the time to acclimate with his new team rather than play in the tournament as well.
It appears as though Minnesota still has seven players on rosters for the tournament, and that’s where the focus should be as the action gets underway. Jose De Leon and Edouard Julien are probably the two players least likely to be on the Opening Day roster, but they join the likes of Pablo Lopez, Jorge Lopez, Christian Vazquez, Jovani Moran, and Emilio Pagan as participants.
With respect to those playing, here’s some things you should be looking for:
Health
First and foremost, the Twins don’t need to see injury for any of their players competing in the tournament. The expectation will be that players and managers operate with a focus on the regular season. Although there is a certain desire to win the tournament, each player knows their season ahead is most important. Having already seen Nick Gordon and Austin Martin fall injured during Spring Training, Rocco Baldelli certainly doesn’t want to see more issues for any of his potential players.
 
With Vazquez slated to be Minnesota's Opening Day starter behind the dish, him remaining healthy throughout the tournament is paramount. Minnesota has seen Gary Sanchez be ineffective while both Mitch Garver and Jeffers have missed time in recent seasons. Vazquez isn't expected to be an offensive juggernaut, but he's a reliable talent defensively and the depth in the organization below the Major League level is not ideal.
 
Quality of Pitching
The pitchers representing Minnesota in the World Baseball Classic are a very intriguing bunch. Pablo Lopez is the headliner having just come over from the Miami Marlins, so seeing how he looks early against some real competition should be more than exciting. Depending on how De Leon is utilized, it’s Lopez that will be the only starter.
From a reliever standpoint, there couldn’t be more to monitor. Pagan did not show well in his spring debut, and tightening things up is a must if he’s going to instill confidence when he takes the mound. Jorge Lopez struggled after joining Minnesota last season, and returning to an All-Star level would be more than nice to see. Moran is certainly battling for a spot in the bullpen, and while he could have an inside track as a lefty, starting strong on a big stage could certainly do wonders.
Next Step for Julien
Thus far we have seen no reason to suggest that Julien’s bat isn’t legit. He raked everywhere last season in the minors, and then continued to do so during the Arizona Fall League. He has started nicely for the Twins this spring, and carrying that over to elite levels of competition for Team Canada is a must. Given his lack of defensive flexibility, the quality of his bat will be what plays, and if he can showcase it during whatever action he sees now, it could help to influence the timeline he sees in 2023.
Team USA is led by Mike Trout and a host of other superstars. The Dominican squad is absolutely stacked. The tournament itself should be a fun one, and there will be plenty of high intensity action to watch alongside the Spring Training games taking place down in Fort Myers.

Coming into spring training, it seemed that Trevor Larnach might serve as the Twins most regular designated hitter. With Joey Gallo looking to handle left field, Alex Kirilloff slated for first base, and Max Kepler still on the team, that was a fair thought. Things got murky when Donovan Solano was added to the mix. Kyle Farmer may take the first crack, but there will still be at-bats to go around.

Is it crazy to give some of them to Canadian prospect Edouard Julien?

Coming off an excellent season for Double-A Wichita, Julien went to the Arizona Fall League and continued to rake. He posted a .931 OPS across 113 games in the Texas League, and his 1.248 OPS during 21 Fall League games went on to beat it. Since being lured away from Auburn, and the Twins had to entice him plenty, all he has done is hit.
That is a good thing for Julien because he leaves plenty to be desired in the field. Mainly playing second base, he’d need an injury to starter Jorge Polanco for an opportunity to open. Even then, Solano, Farmer, or the now-injured Nick Gordon could stand between him and that chance. If his bat is going to carry, though, then maybe that is all Minnesota needs to play.

Rocco Baldelli’s bench should consist of backup catcher Ryan Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and a healthy Gordon. That group gives the manager plenty of flexibility. Should Gordon miss Opening Day due to his high ankle sprain, the spot may need to be taken by an outfielder. Neither Solano nor Farmer is an ideal fit on the grass, and Gordon has all but transitioned to being one. If there is a way for the final spot to be somewhat position-less (or multi-positional), then Julien’s spring isn’t slowing his chances.

Prospects aren’t expected to skip Triple-A entirely, and it usually happens with top-tier types such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, or Jose Berrios. Still, with Julien’s game being somewhat one-sided, he may need less refinement than those in a traditional scenario.
The power has already played this spring with the Twins, and Julien can further substantiate his results by showing well for Team Canada during the World Baseball Classic. As a high on-base guy, his 8/1 K/BB this spring seems abnormal, but we’re also dealing with a tiny sample size. When the dust settles, it’s probably too insignificant to extrapolate much from the results, but that won’t discourage Julien from putting his best foot forward.

It remains unlikely that there is an avenue for Julien to break camp with the Twins and head to Kansas City for Opening Day, but plenty of crazier additions to the 26-man roster have worked their way out. Julien has already been added to the 40-man roster and wouldn't need any back-of-the-napkin gymnastics to find his way into a big-league clubhouse.

Even if it doesn’t happen to start the year, betting against Julien in 2023 seems unwise. He’ll be right down the street in St. Paul, and you’d probably be best served to get your tickets early if you want to see him there. A strong start at Triple-A could force Minnesota’s decision-making process in a hurry.

At some point, the Twins will need to decide how much the hit tool can carry Julien, and if it’s enough to let him do nothing more than that in their lineup, then he’ll find a great position as a consistent designated hitter this year.

The Twins faced an early split-squad set of games on Saturday afternoon to kick off the start of their 2023 Grapefruit League season. In the home game, Kenta Maeda returned to the mound after missing the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and pitched a scoreless first inning.
Lineup
The Twins only had two anticipated regular position players in their home lineup: Joey Gallo led off and Max Kepler batted cleanup. However, they also had three other players practically guaranteed (health permitting, knock on wood) to make the 26-man roster: Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Kyle Farmer at shortstop and Michael A Taylor patrolled center field.
The lineup also included Twins’ top prospects Edouard Julien (Twins Daily’s #5 prospect) and Brooks Lee (Twins Daily’s #1 prospect), who joined the lineup late when catcher Christian Vazquez was pulled from the lineup due to illness.
Maeda’s Return
But the most anticipated Twins player was Maeda. Twins fans had hoped to see him last September, perhaps in a relief role. But as team injuries and the season jointly spun out of control, all parties decided to wait until this spring for his return.
Maeda was greeted rudely by Rays outfield prospect Josh Lowe with a double into the gap that went off of Joey Gallo’s glove. The good news? It was on a 90.8 mph fastball by Maeda showing velocity already near to what he threw pre-surgery. Lowe was slo unable to advance from second base, as Maeda escaped the inning on two ground balls and a strikeout, throwing 13 pitches, ten for strikes. That was the end of his day, as planned.
"He was happy with his stuff", Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said after the game. "I was happy with his stuff. [Twins pitching coach] Pete [Maki] was happy with his stuff. So a very successful day and one we've been waiting a very long time for,"
The Shift Ban
Both regulars in the lineup for the Twins, Gallo and Kepler, could be positively impacted by MLB’s limitation of “the shift” this year. In the first inning, we got a taste of what we might see. It’s not totally clear the results would have been any different, but both plays likely were completed differently than they would have been.
The new limitation has two parts that could affect left-handed hitters. First, the shortstop can no longer play on the other side (the first base side) of second base. Second, second baseman can no longer play in short right field. He must remain on the infield dirt.
For left-handed pull-hitters, the theory is this could mean more ground balls scooting through the right side of the infield for hits. Alas, that was not the case for Kepler, whose ground ball was fielded by the second baseman to the right of the bag and neatly flipped to the shortstop for a double-play to end the inning. It likely would have been fielded by the shortstop last year, but the double play might not have been as automatic.
On the other hand, Gallo hit a soft line drive to right field over the first baseman’s head for a single. It’s not clear if that result would have been any different had the second baseman been deeper and on the grass – he would have had to range far to his left to get there – but it’s possible. It certainly seem like it would have been fielded by him instead of by the right-fielder.
The next inning, we saw another impact of the new rule. Rays second baseman Vidal Brujan lined up too far over to the left side of the infield. It was called by the umpire, and as a result, the batter – Farmer – was awarded a ball. But with the umpires, players and coaches still working out the communication of the call, it was originally thought that a balk had been called, which would have scored Gallo from third base. After a discussion at home plate with the umpire, he returned to third base and was driven home on a sacrifice fly.
Facing Southpaws
We also got a taste of what we might see when the Twins face left-handed pitching this year. With the exception of Nick Gordon, the Twins entire “bench” is right-handed, and it sounds like Rocco intends to play matchups with them frequently, including in the starting lineup.
It certainly worked on Saturday. The bottom of the lineup featured two non-roster invitees signed as minor league free agents. Switch-hitter Willi Castro is a 25-year-old infielder from the Tigers organization who started at third base. Tyler White, a 32-year-old, who has spent the last couple years in Triple-A, started at first base.
But they looked like All-stars against Rays left-handed reliever Josh Fleming. Castro tripled to deep center and White homered. It blew the game open soon after it started, contributing to a 6-0 lead after just two innings.
The Other Game
Meanwhile, the Twins had another game going on in Sarasota vs the Orioles, with Louie Varland starting. Varland, Twins Daily's #9 prospect, threw two scoreless innings, but things turned sour in the second half of the game and the Twins fell 10-5. Mark Contreras and prospect Kala'i Rosario each homered for the Twins. Nick Gordon started the game with a triple and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Austin Martin. It was interesting to note that the Twins had Gordon start at shortstop with Martin at second base. Martin (Twins Daily's #10 prospect) was hit by a pitch in his next plate appearance, but he must have been OK because he stole second base on the next pitch. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner (Twins Daily's #11 prospect) went a combined 0-for-5 with a walk and five strikeouts. Aaron Sabato walked three times, and one of the newest Twins prospects, Jose Salas (Twins Daily's #8 prospect) walked twice. Randy Dobnak gave up one run despite two hits and two walks in his two innings of work. 
For the Orioles, Terrin Vavra - the youngest son of former Twins hitting coach and bench coach Joe Vavra - went 2-for-3 with a ground-rule double and a long home run. Curtis Terry, who spent last spring with the Twins, hit a three-run homer off of Brock Stewart. One of Baltimore's top prospects, Heston Kjerstad hit two home runs. Chris Vallimont gave up one run over two innings. Sauk Rapids native Anthony Bemboom started behind the plate for the O's and went 0-for-2. 
Next Up
The team makes a long trek up to Clearwater to play the Phillies on Sunday. Joe Ryan will be starting for the Twins. The plan is for Jose Miranda to make the trip and hit third as the designated hitter. Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee should be in the lineup again, too.

The Minnesota Twins thought they were signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Instead, they signed a rock-and-roll legend.
“We’re pleased to announce the unexpected signing of Donovan,” said Twins PR flack Dustin Morse. “We look forward to seeing how he can contribute to the team this spring. We’ll be making no further comment.”
Team sources who requested anonymity to speak freely, said a paperwork mishap at the league office sent Solano, 35, to the Rio Grande Rockin’ Ribs-o-Rama in El Paso, Texas. Despite having no identifiable musical talent, he’s opening for Smash Mouth on the Dairy Queen Grill ‘n Chill Stage.
“He played the recorder in grade school,” said Rich Marsden, Solano’s agent. “He will tear through ‘Hot Cross Buns’ and leave the crowd wanting more.”
Meanwhile, the oldest Twin since Jesse Orosco is headed to his first spring training.
“I’m terribly confused,” said Leitch.
The 76-year-old Scottish folk singer, known for songs like “Mellow Yellow” and “Season of the Witch,” is expected to report to Twins camp on Friday.
Some team officials are embracing the opportunity.
“Phish played ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’ at The Great Went, brother,” said Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse.
“Trey was fire that night,” added Baldelli.
Still, with his 77th birthday on the horizon, most are skeptical that Leitch can contribute to the 2023 squad.
“He’s incredibly old,” said a source close to the front office. “He’s 40 years older than everyone else. He can’t hit for power or average. He has no natural position. He’s never played baseball. And those lyrics are straight nonsense. No one is mad about saffron. No one. Trash spice.”

The Twins front office started the offseason by dealing Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angeles. Soon after, the traded recent-40-man roster addition Casey Legumina to the Reds for infielder Kyle Farmer. The latter was the likely primary shortstop until the Twins were able to bring back Carlos Correa on a six-year, $200 million deal. That moved Farmer into more of a utility role, able to play all four infield spots, potentially a little outfield, and be the third catcher. Jose Miranda was moving to third base. Jorge Polanco will be at second base. The hope is that Alex Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman.
The infield depth was solid, especially considering Royce Lewis could return to the lineup by mid-summer, about the time that prospects such as Austin Martin and Brooks Lee might be deemed ready for the big leagues. In fact, the front office used that depth to acquire starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Marlins, with a couple of prospects, in exchange for Luis Arraez. 
So, it is certainly intriguing that the Twins would add the 35-year-old Donovan Solano on a big-league deal. 
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The timing is certainly interesting. It could make a logical, overthinker like myself to wonder if there is an injury. Or, could a trade be coming? Those are logical thoughts. It's also possible that they believe that he can play enough places to make himself a solid contributor in a role. 
Let's start by looking back at the career of Donovan Solano to this point. While he's played in the big leagues, maybe some don't follow the National League or teams with homes outside of Minneapolis. 
The St. Louis Cardinals signed him when he was 16 years old in 2004. He remained in their organization through the 2011 season, having spent some time at Triple-A. As a minor-league free agent, he signed with the Florida Marlins. The Marlins called him up in late May and he played in 93 games for them. He topped the 100-games-played plateau in 2013 and 2014 despite playing multiple positions. In 2016, he played in 55 games with the Marlins before being released. He signed with the Yankees for the 2016 season and played in nine games while wearing the pinstripes. In 2017, he spent his whole Age-29 season at Triple-A. The Dodgers signed him in 2018 and he again played in Triple-A. 
He was kind of at a career crossroads. The Giants signed him in 2019 and sent him to Triple-A, but something happened. He got called up and in 81 games, he hit .33 with 13 doubles and four home runs. In the Covid-shortened 2020 season, he hit .326 with 15 doubles and three home runs in 54 games. He won a Silver Slugger Award. 
 
In 2021, he played in 101 games for the Giants and hit .280 with 17 doubles and seven home runs. Last year, he signed with the Reds, and in 80 games, he hit .284 with 16 doubles and four homers. He was a teammate in 2022 with Tyler Mahle and Kyle Farmer. Farmer and Solano both played around the infield for the Reds last year, especially after the team called up Spencer Steer in August. 
While he has played all four infield positions, he has primarily played second base in the big leagues. 368 of his 463 career starts (79.5%) have come at second base. If you've been listening to the Gleeman and the Geek podcast or John's recent Caretaker audio posts, you know that the Twins have said that Jorge Polanco will be brought along slowly and as his knee is ready. Speculation (fair or not) might be that the Twins just want to make sure they have another option there.  
While we don't know the dollars of the deal, it won't be real high. Last year, he made $4.5 million with the Reds. This late in spring training, odds are that you can guess the Twins will play him maybe half of that and possibly provide incentives to it. 
The other side of the transaction is also not yet known. The Twins roster is already at 40 players. To make room for Solano, someone will need to be removed from the 40-man roster. Most likely, the Twins will make room for Solano by placing Royce Lewis (or maybe Chris Paddack) on the 60-Day IL. 
(This post will be updated as we learn more about the transaction.) 
Your turn. Share your thoughts on this free-agent signing. Do you think it's a good move? Do you think it indicates something else? Leave your COMMENTS below.  

Spring training's start is a time to reflect on the off-season and look ahead to the upcoming campaign. The Twins' off-season plan included a whirlwind of moves, including signing the biggest free-agent contract in team history. Other AL Central teams were less active, so that begs the question: Are the Twins the AL Central's Most Improved Team?
Last Friday, The Athletic's Jayson Stark surveyed 29 executives, former executives, coaches, and scouts for their opinions on the upcoming season. The Twins ranked as the sixth most-improved team in the American League. All the remaining AL Central teams ranked in the top five among the least-improved teams in the AL. The Tigers ranked as the overall least-improved team with 19 votes. Let's recap what happened in the AL Central this winter.
5. Tigers Off-Season Recap: Traded Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens for Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands; Signed Michael Lorenzen; Signed Matthew Boyd; Traded Joe Jimenez for Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jake Higginbotham
In 2021, the Tigers surprised many on the way to a third-place finish in the AL Central. Last season, there was even more anticipation surrounding the team, with many of their top prospects expected to impact the big-league roster. Their season failed to get off the ground for Detroit as the club struggled to a 66-96 record. The team's offseason moves will minimally impact the roster, and that's why the club projects to lose 90 games. Tigers fans can hope that Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Spencer Torkelson, and Riley Greene improve at the big-league level, but Detroit's season looks bleak. 
4. White Sox Off-Season Recap: Lost Jose Abreu and Johnny Cueto to free agency; Signed Mike Clevinger; Signed Andrew Benintendi; Signed Elvis Andrus; Traded Theo Denlinger for Franklin German
Many expected the White Sox to run away with the AL Central in 2021, but the club finished with a .500 record. Pedro Grifol, the former Royals bench coach, is stepping into the managerial role. Like the Twins, Chicago was hit hard by the injury bug last season. Jose Abreu has been a team leader on and off the field, so it will be interesting to see how the team adjusts to not having him in the lineup. Mike Clevinger is under investigation for domestic violence, so there is no guarantee of how much he will pitch for the club this season. Andrew Benintendi is a solid addition to the club, but there are other holes on the roster. Elvis Andrus was still on the market and agreed to a deal over the weekend. The White Sox had room to make plenty of other moves but decided to put their faith in a healthier club in 2023. 
3. Royals Off-Season Recap: Signed Jordan Lyles; Traded Wyatt Mills for Jacob Wallace; Signed Ryan Yarbrough; Signed Aroldis Chapman; Traded Adalberto Mondesi for Josh Taylor; Traded Michael A. Taylor for Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz; Signed Zack Greinke
Kansas City seems stuck in rebuilding mode with some high-end young players and a farm system ranking in the middle of the pack. The Royals aren't going to contend in the near future, but some exciting players are on the roster. Their place on this list is related more to what the other AL Central teams did or didn't do this winter. Aroldis Chapman is an all-time great relief pitcher, but it's hard to know what he has left in the tank. Kansas City can hope he has a great first half, and they can deal him before the trade deadline. Royals fans can pin their hopes on watching Zack Greinke join the 3,000 strikeout club with 108 Ks in 2023. 
2. Guardians Off-Season Recap: Traded Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver; Traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito; Signed Mike Zunino; Signed Josh Bell; Traded Owen Miller for a PTBNL; Traded Will Benson for Justin Boyd
Cleveland didn't need to add much to their roster to be projected near the top of the AL Central. Last season, projections didn't have the Guardians running away with the division, but Minnesota and Chicago fell apart. Many experts will pick Cleveland to win the division again, but they must prove that 2022 wasn't a fluke. The Guardians had a couple of offseason needs, which the team filled with Mike Zunino and Josh Bell. Those aren't big-name free agents, but the club was already considered the most complete in the AL Central. Their organization continues to pump out big-league-caliber pitchers, and Jose Ramirez is one of the game's best hitters. Cleveland fans can look to the future when David Blitzer takes full ownership of the club, which could increase the team's payroll. 
1. Twins Off-Season Recap: Signed Carlos Correa; Signed Christian Vazquez; Signed Joey Gallo; Trade Casey Legumina for Kyle Farmer, Trade Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz for Michael A. Taylor; Trade Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio; Trade Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo
Minnesota's whirlwind winter has been full of ups and downs. Correa seemed headed to multiple other organizations before returning to the Twins. Vazquez adds depth behind the plate, which was one of the team's most significant needs this winter. The front office also upgraded the rotation by trading for Pablo Lopez, even though it cost Luis Arraez. On paper, the Twins have tremendous depth throughout the roster, which can help if/when injuries impact the team in 2023. Some of the moves will help the team more than others, but the team's leaders have set high goals. Can this roster meet expectations?
How would you rank the moves made by the AL Central teams this offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.
The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 
There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.
Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.
 

 
 
Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 
The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  
 
 
While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 
His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. 
Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. 
Joey Gallo, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR
The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. 
Trevor Larnach, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR
Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. 
Jorge Alcala, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. 
Jorge Lopez, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. 
Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

For once, the Twins have some depth to their pitching staff with a mix of holdovers and younger arms in both the rotation and the bullpen. After a 2022 in which they turned Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax from starters to impact relievers, many have become interested in what struggling starting pitching prospect could be the next to follow that path. There are plenty of candidates to be fair. For now however, it doesn’t sound as though we’ll see those plans play out immediately.
Such a small piece of news but so much to draw from it. Assuming health, Bailey Ober appears to be headed for Triple-A to begin 2023 due to the MLB rotation depth. For once, however, the Triple-A rotation will be tons of fun with names such as Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Jordan Balazovic behind him. It’s going to be a treat to attend CHS Field this summer to see some legitimate young arms throwing every day. With only limited spots in the Saints rotation, the Twins immediate plans to keep everyone starting is interesting.
Not being too quick to transition starters into the bullpen is good practice. Especially considering the health questions in the Twins rotation, it’s good to make sure there are as many arms as possible to step in if things go south. For now, it appears the last spot in St. Paul is a three-way battle with names such as Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. With a few injuries this spring, those three options for the #5 spot in St. Paul could all find themselves starting games consistently. It may quickly become an issue that works itself out.
It’s also just much easier to transition a pitcher from a starter to a reliever in a hurry than it is vice versa If the Twins health holds through the spring and they reconsider a few of their young arms, they could switch them over in no time as they did with Sands and Henriquez down the stretch in 2022. It may not have them as ready to relieve as they would be had they been preparing from Day 1, but some guys are able to flip the switch very quickly. Not committing young arms to those spots also opens up a few more possibilities.
The Twins may not have as much Opening Day bullpen depth with all of these young arms remaining starters, but they can go and get external depth to build up even more. As of February 15, players such as Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack can all be put on the 60-Day IL, opening 40-man spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins choose to fill these spots, but it’s probably safe to bet on one addition to the bullpen at the very least.
The reliever market has been nearly bare for some time now, but a few fits still exist. They’ve already been linked to Chaska native Brad Hand, who’s far from the bullpen ace he once was but has continued to limit hard contact. Several other arms remain that they could take fliers on such as Will Smith or Trevor Rosenthal. They’re also due for their yearly waiver claim that makes the Opening Day roster. If they have any moves left to make, it’s easy to see at least one of them being a reliever because of the position-player logjam, and the Twins have at least two 40-man spots to fill if they feel inclined to make an addition.
It also may be too early to rule out a trade. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely to hold onto Max Kepler, but this could easily be posturing on the Twins part. The left-handed hitting outfield depth is to a point where it can be argued that it doesn’t make sense. They aren’t trading recently-signed Joey Gallo, and Trevor Larnach’s value is likely at a low point despite a hope that he can still become an impact hitter to pair with the plus defense that graded out in 2022. This still leaves Kepler as the likeliest player shipped out if a trade is made. As a "two-ish" win player who gets most of his value from defense at this point, he’s certainly a candidate to be sent out in a trade involving a reliever.
The Twins are left with a non-obvious answer for the next man up if one of the current MLB bullpen arms misses time. The Triple-A bullpen likely won’t have a young, obvious option to get the call if needed early in the season, although any acquisitions would likely push Jovani Moran into that spot once again (to this writer’s exhaustion). It’s likely that as the year goes on, we start to see some of these pitchers transition into the bullpen depending on the Twins MLB roster needs and how the young arms perform in the rotation.
Sands is noted as the closest one to making this switch after struggling all-around last season. Henriquez got hit far too hard as a Triple-A starter in 2022. Winder’s shoulder appears to be a chronic issue at this point. If any of these issues persist, look for the Twins to pivot quickly off of their preseason plans to keep these arms in the rotation. By season’s end, we’ll likely be seeing a few of them making appearances out of the bullpen.

Torvald Carlsson spends his days curating a formidable collection of Minnesota sports memorabilia. The retired Scandia educator counts a row of seats from the old Met Stadium, a signed Bernie Bierman football, and an original George Mikan Minneapolis Lakers jersey as his most prized possessions. His newest acquisition might be his most unique one yet.
“I was browsing eBay the other day and saw that they put the entire Bally Sports North network up for auction,” said Carlsson. “I don’t really need it, but at $37.50 I figured why the heck not. And now I guess I own the gosh darned thing.”
Diamond Sports Group, which owns Bally Sports North and 18 other regional sports networks, recently skipped a $140 million interest payment, signaling that bankruptcy could soon be imminent. A spokesperson confirmed that Carlsson was on the path to being BSN's new owner, but refused to say if the online auction was part of the company’s plan to recoup needed funds. 
Meanwhile, the new owner of the network that brings Twins, Wild, and Timberwolves games to Minnesota cable subscribers says he has no big plans to change anything for now.
“It’s a whole deal,” said the 71-year-old. “Keeping track of the day-to-day is a real humdinger, I don’t suppose I’ll be a part of that. They just sent me a whole bunch of papers in the mail and (former Twin and current BSN analyst) Tim Laudner is sleeping in my driveway. Ma (Carlsson’s wife Gail) brings him some supper and that seems to settle him down some.”
While a lot of logistical questions remain unanswered (“I guess Glen Perkins needs a food taster on all road trips due to his long list of enemies and rivals,” said Carlsson), Bally employees are hopeful this leads to better days at the company.
“I’m optimistic,” said Dick Bremer, longtime play-by-play voice of Twins. “Ever since Bert (Blyleven, Bremer’s former broadcast partner) retired, I’ve lost weight, I sleep through the night without crying, and no one has taped a ‘FART MASTER’ sign to my back. Not once. They can pay me with pizza crusts and expired Marlboro Miles. I truly don’t care. I am the happiest man in the world.”
Image license here. 

The Twins were one of the most injured teams throughout the 2022 season. Minnesota overcame these injuries during most of the season to be at the top of the AL Central. Unfortunately, the club ran out of gas (and players) in the second half. Will the injury bug hit the Twins again in 2023? Let’s review the team’s injuries from last season and how they will impact spring training. 
Pitchers
Jorge Alcala: Alcala landed on the injured list five days into the 2022 season with elbow inflammation. He tried to return but suffered a setback in June. In August, the Twins announced he underwent arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. Minnesota expected him to be a vital bullpen arm in 2022, so it will be interesting to see what role he can fill in 2023. He’s expected to be ready to start the season. 
Sonny Gray: Gray had three stints on the injured list last season, including ending the year on the shelf. He missed time in April with a hamstring injury and a pectoral strain in June. His season ended on the IL with a hamstring strain. Minnesota was out of contention, so the team had no reason to rush him back. Gray has failed to pitch more than 150 innings in all but two seasons since 2016 due to injuries. 
Kenta Maeda: Maeda missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was some hope he would be able to pitch in the season’s final weeks, but the Twins fell out of contention, and there was no reason to rush him back. Maeda is entering the final year of his contract, so he has a lot to prove on the mound this season. Can teams rely on him to be a starting pitcher moving forward, or is he headed to a bullpen role?
Tyler Mahle: Mahle’s Twins tenure has been overshadowed by injuries. He was limited to four appearances after being acquired by the Twins. Before the trade, Mahle missed 21 days with a right shoulder strain. He came back and made two starts before being moved to the Twins. Minnesota reported that there was no structural damage to the shoulder, and the Twins worked with him on an off-season shoulder regimen. He has a chance to be the team's top pitcher if he can move past his shoulder concerns.   
Bailey Ober: Ober was limited to 11 appearances in 2022 and didn’t make an appearance between June 1 and September 16 because of a groin strain. Throughout his professional career, he hasn’t pitched more than the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021. He reached that number in 2021 between the Twins and Saints. If everyone is healthy, there’s a good chance Ober will start the year in the Triple-A rotation. It would be great if Ober can set a new a career high in innings pitched in 2023, but he hasn't been a bastion of health with the Twins.  
Position Players
Byron Buxton: Buxton had a tremendous start to his 2022 campaign on the way to his first All-Star Game appearance. His second half was much more limited while he dealt with a right hip strain and a knee issue. In September, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery, which the team considered a cleanup procedure. He is expected to be ready as spring training begins, but injuries have impacted much of Buxton’s career.
Carlos Correa: Correa has played 136 games or more over the last two seasons, so injuries haven’t been a concern in recent seasons. However, Correa’s ankle caused two contracts to fall through this winter. He is also not participating in the World Baseball Classic, but that is tied to his wife expecting their second child in March. Different injuries have marked Correa’s big-league career, but the team will likely be taking good care of his ankle during his remaining Twins tenure. 
Jorge Polanco: During the 2022 season, Polanco missed time with patellar tendonitis before landing on the injured list in early September. He tried to work his way back and played in minor league rehab games before suffering a setback. Polanco should be good to go at the start of spring training, but he is certainly someone to watch. Chronic ankle injuries have also impacted him in multiple seasons.
Alex Kirilloff: Kirilloff missed time the last two seasons with wrist issues. Last season, he dealt with considerable pain while swinging, and the team needed to find a long-term solution. In August, he underwent a season-ending ulnar shortening procedure that is relatively rare for professional athletes. There are a lot of unknowns with this procedure and how well a big-league hitter can recover, although Kirk Gibson is one positive example to give you hope. First base is one of the most critical spots in the team’s line-up, and the club needs Kirilloff to produce at a high level. 
Trevor Larnach: In late June, Larnach underwent a bilateral surgical repair to treat a core muscle strain. At the time, the team thought that he’d miss six weeks, but he never returned in 2022. During the 2021 season, his performance suffered before the Twins demoted him to Triple-A. He later revealed that a hand injury had been bothering him. When healthy, he’s shown tremendous power potential but hasn’t been able to stay on the field.  
Are you worried about any of these injuries? Will the Twins be healthier in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 
 

Age: 19 (DOB: 2/28/2003)
2022 Stats: (A): 199 PA, .272/.493/.552, 9 HR, 25 RBI
ETA: 2025
2022 Ranking: 16
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: 46 | MLB: 88 | ATH: 48 | BP: 42
 
What's To Like
It's hard to properly explain just how special and stunning Emmanuel Rodriguez's performance was last year in the Florida State League. First, I'll try to set the stage a little bit.
Rodriguez had just turned 19 before the start of the season, and had played a total of 37 professional games, all in 2021 at the rookie-level Florida Complex League. He had played pretty well there, showing a lot of power (.524 SLG) along with a lot of swing-and-miss (36% K-rate, .214 AVG).
He was embarking upon his first full-season campaign in the Florida State League, always known for its pitcher-friendly conditions. (In 2022, FSL hitters posted a .687 OPS overall.) E-Rod was younger than the league's average by two years. He was facing more experienced, more advanced competition. 
Here's what he did, while playing a very solid center field:
In 199 plate appearances, he hit five doubles, three triples, and nine homers with 11 steals, 52 strikeouts, and 57 walks. That last part is worth repeating: 52 K, 57 BB. He cut his problematic K-rate down to an acceptable range while also drawing walks at a truly staggering frequency. Fifty-seven walks (just one "intentional") in 199 plate appearances equates to a 28.6% BB rate. It's a figure so astronomically high it almost defies belief. Juan Soto led the majors at 20.3% last year.
The freakish rate of free passes indicates that Rodriguez has quickly developed both an incredibly keen eye, and a reputation among pitchers as a feared slugger to avoid. He lived up to the latter billing when he got something to hit, slugging .552, and rode all those walks to a .493 on-base percentage. The lefty swinger had a .522 OBP against left-handed pitchers.
Among players with 100+ PA in the FSL, no one was within 80 points of OPS to the teenaged CF Rodriguez, other than a 24-year-old 1B/DH named Jacob Gonzalez.
Rodriguez's breakout season was cut dramatically short by a knee meniscus injury suffered in June, but evaluators have seen enough in the small sample to elevate him into the elite tier of prospects. All four nationals outlets above have the outfielder in their top 100, and three have him in their top 50. 
Baseball America called him "one of the strongest up-arrow candidates" on their list. "He might be a top-10 prospect in baseball by midseason if what we saw last spring holds up," observed The Athletic's Keith Law. 
It's not hard to see where the hype is coming from. And while you couldn't exactly say he came out of nowhere -- the Dominican scored a $2.75 million bonus at age 16 as one of the top talents in the 2019 international class -- he's definitely going somewhere.
What's Left to Work On
There is not a single thing you can quibble with in Rodriguez's brief flash of brilliance last year. Complete all-around dominance. But, that's all it was: a brief flash. Turning 20 later this month, he's got a very sparse track record – just 84 pro games – and a long road ahead to the major leagues.
There are many possible paths forward for the high-upside, high-variance talent. The direction he'll try to steer clear of goes something like this: As he moves up and faces better pitchers (who can better command the strike zone), Rodriguez's patience gives way to passiveness and his K-rate climbs, while the walk rate drops precipitously. Meanwhile, he loses a step after the surgery and keeps adding bulk as he ages into his 20s, forcing a move to a corner outfield spot and raising the bar for his offensive impact.
Even in this scenario, Rodriguez can still pan out as a pretty valuable player, because his power tool is outstanding and there's nothing wrong with a classic slugging right fielder who can run and throw. 
But if Rodriguez can come back healthy at High-A and keep remotely intact the robust skill set we saw on display over two spectacular months in Fort Myers ... he'll likely be viewed among the top prospects in all of baseball by this time next year, following the trajectory of a future MLB superstar.
What's Next
Prospect rankings tend to be all over the place, but there's a stark level of consensus surrounding Rodriguez and his current estimation from the evaluation community. While there was tremendous dissent regarding the top two spots on the list this year (as we'll soon explore), there was none about who should rank #3: all 10 people who voted on Twins Daily's list had Rodriguez here. 
Even as you zoom out to the national 100 prospect rankings, the level of consensus is pretty stunning for a player who was on none of these lists a year ago. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and The Athletic all have E-Rod ranked between 42nd and 48th overall.
We're all seeing the same thing: a highly touted international talent who showed everything you could possibly want to see during an all-too-brief breakthrough in 2022. Now he needs to rebound from the injury, and put together a full season of work. From there, the sky is the limit.
He might not necessarily be the best prospect in the Twins system, but Rodriguez is almost certainly the most exciting, with a ceiling that rivals any promising young player who's ever graced these rankings.
Feel free to discuss E-Rod as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.
 
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF
Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Prospect #5: Edouard Julien, 2B
Prospect #4: Marco Raya, RHP
Prospect #3: Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Prospect #2: Coming tomorrow!

Four tiny words mean last season's over 
Pitchers and catchers report
A tough year to watch, or remain sober
Pitchers and catchers report
A winter spent refreshing MLB rumors
Praying that Falvey makes a big move or
re-signs Correa? LOL! That’s good humor!
Pitchers and catchers report
A crowded rotation? No chance that’s true.
Pitchers and catchers report
No bad backs or elbows or bubonic flu?
Pitchers and catchers report
We’ll finally see pitching, for which we’ve waited
Mahle & Lopez, Sonny, Maeda,
Ryan & Ober (though he could get Sainted)
Pitchers and catchers report
Pico de Gallo adds power that pleases 
Pitchers and catchers report
Plus K-rriffic swings that add cooling breezes
Pitchers and catchers report
We added a Farmer who fields everywhere 
Also a Taylor (for when Buxton’s not there)
A new framing Christian will answer our prayers. 
Pitchers and catchers report. 
Finally you take your turn as poet
Pitchers and catchers report
Channel your winter frustration and show it
Pitchers and catchers report
The comments below are a great place to bleat
Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat
(But add words wherever, if like me you cheat).
Pitchers and catchers report

Age: 20 (DOB: 8/7/02)
2022 Stats (Low-A): 65 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 76 K, 23 BB
ETA: 2025
2021 Ranking: Honorable Mention

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: 53
 
What’s To Like
The Twins have been high on Marco Raya since they drafted the teenager in the fourth round of the 2020 draft out of high school. Raya was one of the club’s biggest risers in 2022 after not being among Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects entering last season. It was easy to see why he was left off the list since he didn’t pitch at all in 2021 and was looking to make his professional debut in 2022. Since joining the organization, his projection has improved from a mid-rotation starter to a potential ace. 
Minnesota had Raya spend the 2022 season in Fort Myers where he was three years younger than the average age of the competition. He only faced younger batters in 46 plate appearances, and he held older batters to a .571 OPS. Raya posted a 10.5 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9 while batters hit less than .200 against him. His fastball has increased by multiple miles per hour since being drafted. He compliments his fastball with three offspeed offerings that MLB.com already grades as being 50s on the 20-80 scouting scale. 
What’s Left to Work On
Shoulder soreness caused Raya to miss the 2021 campaign and his innings were limited in 2022. His frame is built similarly to former Twin Jose Berrios, so there can be questions about long-term durability with pitchers that size. Raya is listed at 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds so there is room to add more muscle to his frame as he enters his 20s. Marcus Stroman is another similar sized pitcher that has found success at the big-league level, but Raya has a better fastball that is paired with very projectable secondary pitches. He is already considered extremely athletic so it will be interesting to see how his off-season regime added to his frame. 
Raya has been limited to 19 appearances in his professional career, so the 2023 season is critical for building innings. He pitched fewer than five innings in all but four starts last season and he never threw more than 80 pitches. Minnesota will continue to monitor his innings during his young career, and it seems like 100 innings would be a good goal in 2023. His appearances will continue to come against younger hitters and he can continue to refine his secondary pitch offerings. 
What’s Next
During the season’s early weeks, Raya should stay in Fort Myers where the weather will be warmer. His previous shoulder injury is no longer a concern, but there’s no reason to rush him into pitching in colder weather if the team can avoid it. As temperatures improve, Raya can move to Cedar Rapids to accumulate the bulk of his innings. He is already on the national prospect radar after a tremendous debut. By this time next season, he has a chance to be Minnesota’s top prospect and a global top-100 prospect. 
What are your expectations for Raya in 2023? Can he be the team’s top prospect for 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The impact of the bullpen on a team's fate can often be overstated by fans, which is understandable. Not to get into specifics, but ... a certain reliever melting down several times in close games against a division rival lingers in memory more starkly than, say, the offense that couldn't build a sufficient lead, or the starter who couldn't go deep enough to prevent that scenario. 
Many fans will tell you the bullpen was the primary downfall of the 2022 Twins. Is that true? Not really. Their bullpen ranked 20th among MLB teams in fWAR, 16th in ERA, 14th in FIP, compared to a rotation that ranked 21st, 20th, and 18th respectively. The offense, which was supposed to be the engine driving a competitive team, ranked 17th in the majors in runs scored.
Notably, the Twins bullpen ranked 29th in fWAR in the first half last year, but improved to FOURTH in the second half, once they'd parted ways with the likes of Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith. They weren't just improved in the latter portion of the campaign, after ironing out an uninspiring opening group – they were elite. 
All of which is to say they're not working from as lousy of an existing base as many seem to perceive or assume. The front office's decision to bypass any significant offseason RP additions – which now seems all but affirmed, with Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin both coming off the market in the past few days – is justifiable on merit.
That said, failing to properly build a deep and resilient bullpen can be a costly misstep that fans won't be eager to forgive. Even if it's sometimes exaggerated, there's no question that the bullpen plays a vital role in any team's success, and is often a key differentiator between the good and the great. 
Is this group up to snuff?
The team is placing it's chips on a series of outcomes shaking out mostly the right way, in order to fulfill the vision of a bullpen suited to a World Series contender:
The Twins are betting on Jhoan Durán holding up.
He's one of the best relievers in baseball, so Durán would serve as a linchpin in almost any bullpen makeup. But the Twins are set to once again lean hard on him for the late innings, because there is so much uncertainty surrounding him (as we'll discuss).
The big right-hander was remarkably healthy and durable last year, but he was limited to 16 total innings in 2021 by an elbow strain. He throws about as hard as any pitcher in history, so the injury concerns are self-evident and unignorable. 
The Twins can't do much about that other than manage and protect his arm to their best ability, but if they wanted some peace of mind, they might've shelled out or traded for a big-name reliever to serve as co-ace of the bullpen. The Rafael Montero to their Ryan Pressly, if you will.
Alas, it's possible – maybe even probable – that the front office feels it already accomplished this at the deadline last year: 
The Twins are betting on Jorge López getting back on track.
If López and Durán are both pitching at a level approximating their work in the first half last year, they provide Minnesota with one of the most dominant 1-2 punches at the back end of any bullpen. This no doubt played a major role in the front office's strategy during a 2022 deadline that seemed as much oriented toward strengthening the '23 club as boosting their chances for the stretch run.
The plan can still work, and the Twins are counting on it. López's results dropped off big-time after the trade last year, but it was only 23 innings and the stuff was still there. If his drop-off didn't coincide directly with switching teams, it probably would've been less noticeable, and we'd have been more inclined to judge his overall body of work – 71 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4 HR allowed – as a tremendously encouraging first go as a full-time reliever.
Merely replicating that overall level of performance for the full season would make López a worthy setup man or closer. But if getting comfortable while making adjustments brings him back closer to the level of his All-Star first half, the Twins have two powerhouses lurking at the back of the bullpen. They'll be the envy of almost every team in the league.
The Twins are betting on Emilio Pagán proving doubters wrong.
The doubters are many, and they have ample evidence to support their stance. Pagán authored from the mound some of this team's lowest moments in 2022. His propensity for hanging meatballs that got launched 450 feet at dire moments was legendary ... and it's a rep that's now been following him around for a while.
And yet. The Twins believe in the quality of his stuff and they are not alone. Perhaps they feel it started to shine through in the second half and down the stretch, with help from a new breaking ball swapped in for the cutter. After posting a 5.23 ERA in the first half, Pagán lowered that figure to 3.56 in the second half – including 2.16 ERA in his final 16 ⅔ innings, during which he held opponents to a .170/.279/.288 with only one home run allowed.
The overpowering arsenal is undeniable, and in the latter stage of the season – under tutelage from a rearranged coaching staff featuring Pete Maki and Colby Suggs – Pagán finally started to unlock it. Or so the Twins are betting.
The Twins are betting on unproven middle relief options coming through.
Griffin Jax looked very good last year in his transition to relief, but posted a 6.37 ERA the prior season as a rookie. Caleb Thielbar was phenomenal following a rocky start, but he's 36 and was out of pro baseball a few years ago. Jorge Alcalá undoubtedly has the stuff to dominate righties, but missed nearly all of last season with an elbow injury.
Add in the likes of Trevor Megill and Jovani Moran, and you've got a great deal of high-end potential within the middle tier of his bullpen mix – including some very viable setup candidates – but also substantial question marks relating to age, injury, track record, or otherwise. 
The argument for adding another veteran reliever is that you can mitigate some of this uncertainty with more of a proven commodity. The argument against it is that you might be limiting well-earned opportunities for some of the guys lower on the list. 
Moran for example posted a 2.21 ERA while averaging 12.0 K/9 and allowing zero homers in 41 innings for the Twins last year, and he's about to turn 26. Does he really deserve to be buried back in Triple-A with another vet of questionable superiority stacked above him on the depth chart?
The Twins are betting on manufacturing relief arms over the course of the season.
Even if the Twins are mostly right about the pitchers mentioned above, they'll need to rely on an influx of talent throughout the course of the season, because that's always the case. The underlying premise seems to be one guiding this front office philosophically from a bullpen standpoint: we can find them.
Maybe that means extracting good performances out of minor-league signings and waiver claims, such as Danny Coulombe and Oliver Ortega. They've been okay at that, on the fringes. But really, it comes down to identifying pitchers from a wide-ranging pool of flawed starters who can elevate into true relief weapons. 
We saw this last year with Durán and Jax, and I suspect the Twins feel they're only scratching the surface. Keep a close eye on names like Josh Winder, Ronny Henriquez, Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and Brent Headrick as candidates to shift to relief and make a major big-league impact. 
This philosophy that basically boils down to, "Capable relievers are everywhere, but volatile, why pay a premium?" is not exactly unique to the Twins, but it's one they're embracing with all their might. And it might ultimately play a huge role in defining their success this season.
Let's hope they're right on that bet, and the others inherent to a status quo offseason for the Minnesota bullpen.

Not all fans approved of the Twins trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was a fan favorite, and there are multiple reasons the club was willing to part with the reigning AL Batting Champion. He has yet to have a true defensive home and doesn't fit the profile of a slugging first baseman. Minnesota has other options at first base in 2023, which might be the most pivotal position on the roster. 
Presumed Starter
Alex Kirilloff returns from a unique off-season surgery where doctors shortened his ulna bone. He has dealt with wrist issues over the last two seasons, and this surgery was the best way to solve these problems. This surgery has shown success with the general population, but there have been few professional athletes to undergo this procedure. There is no guarantee Kirilloff will return to his previous form, but all reports from the Twins have him on track to complete a regular spring training. 
Projection systems defer in what to expect from Kirilloff in 2023. During his big-league career, Kirilloff hasn't been healthy, which impacts how projections view his potential contributions. ZiPS has Kirilloff hitting .250/.310/.401 (.711) while accumulating 0.9 WAR in 82 games (332 PA). Baseball-Reference projects him to post a .708 OPS in 301 PA. The Twins are hoping to get more than half a season from Kirilloff, so their internal projections are likely higher for his output during the upcoming season. 
Other First Base Options
Minnesota can use Joey Gallo at first base, but he provides much of his value with Gold Glove-caliber outfield defense. He can likely be a strong defender at first, but the Twins' best defensive alignment has him in a corner outfield spot. Gallo has played over 745 innings at first base in his career, but most of those innings came in 2017 or earlier. His offensive profile fits at first base, so he is a fallback option if Kirilloff misses time in 2023. 
Jose Miranda got time at first last season, but the Twins want him to be the club's everyday third baseman. He has never been considered a strong defender at third, so first base might be his eventual long-term position. Rocco Baldelli can undoubtedly use a line-up that includes Kyle Farmer at third base with Miranda sliding over to the other corner infield spot. Farmer and Christian Vazquez have played over 100 innings at first base so that they can be emergency options.
Offensive Potential
Fans may forget that Kirilloff was considered one of baseball's top prospects throughout his professional career. All three major national rankings had him among their top 100 prospects for three consecutive seasons (2019-21), with Baseball America and MLB.com ranking him in the top 15 entering the 2019 season. He was the 2018 TD Minor League Hitter of the Year after he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs in 130 games. Kirilloff can still be that type of hitter if his latest wrist surgery proves successful. 
Minnesota saw flashes of the offensive wunderkind when they sent Kirilloff to St. Paul during the 2022 season. He was struggling to fight through his wrist injury with the Twins, and the club wanted him to rediscover his swing in an environment more suitable for working on mechanical adjustments. He dominated in 35 games by hitting .359/.465/.641 (1.106) with seven doubles and ten home runs. His hot hitting didn't follow him back to the Twins, and he was eventually shut down because of his wrist. 
The Twins' best line-up against a right-handed starter has Alex Kirilloff at first base with an outfield of Joey Gallo (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), and Max Kepler (RF). If Kirilloff isn't deemed ready, the Twins can move Gallo to first and have one of the other young outfielders (Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner) take his place in a corner outfield spot. Minnesota focused on improving the club's outfield defense this winter, so they may avoid using players that struggle more on the defensive side. 
If Kirilloff is healthy, Minnesota's line-up is strong at nearly every position, with depth waiting in the wings. The Twins will need to be ready to pivot to other first-base options like Gallo or Miranda if Kirilloff has any setbacks. How important is first base to the Twins line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

The Twins certainly have a history when it comes to their most hyped prospects getting to the majors and immediately or shortly thereafter suffering career-altering injuries. To make matters worse, these prospects usually show they can handle the hardest part of breaking through to the majors: holding their own, or even thriving against big league pitching/hitting. A few examples:
Jason Kubel (Knee) Joe Mauer (Knee) Francisco Liriano (Elbow) Byron Buxton (Three Stooges Syndrome) Royce Lewis (Knee X2) Trevor Larnach (Core) And to a lesser extent:
Bailey Ober (Groin) Christian Guzmán (Shoulder) Another player to add may be Alex Kirilloff. Drafted by the Twins 15th overall in 2016, he hit right away in the short-season leagues until he tore a ligament in his elbow and missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He reestablished himself in 2018, hitting .348 in two levels of Single-A. Prior to 2019, he was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the 39th best overall prospect while being praised for “preternatural raw hitting talent.”
He dealt with more minor injuries the following few years, but still ranked as high the ninth overall prospect at MLB.com and fifteenth at Baseball America. Opinions of scouts obviously differed, but no one doubted his hitting ability. The question was how much power he would show and at what position.
However, since debuting in the 2020 postseason, just about nothing has gone according to plan. Kirilloff tore a ligament in his wrist in 2021 after starting out hot at the plate, tried to play through it and lost his ability to drive the ball. He underwent season-ending surgery, came back in 2022, and experienced the same soreness. He took some time off, went to Triple-A and raked for a month, his power seemingly back. 
He arrived back with the big club in June and continued to hit with a slash line of .306/.346/.469 in the 29 games following his promotion. He looked good at first and playable in the outfield. Had the Twins found their number five hitter for the next several years?
Not quite. A recurrence of the same wrist issue again ended his season, this time resulting in a much more invasive ulna shaving surgery. Now, his .694 career OPS is below average and often quoted by national outlets as reasons why he is a disappointment, but that’s pretty lazy analysis. 
After starting his career 0-for-14 in 2021, Kirilloff went on a seven-game tear, hitting for a 1.190 OPS before he sustained the original wrist injury. A lot of players have hot seven game stretches, and never become anything, but the 29-game stretch in 2022 cemented for me what he is with two wrists. Watch a single game of a healthy Kirilloff while factoring in his prospect pedigree, and its hard to come away thinking he is anything but a pure, line-to-line hitter with tremendous plate coverage.
That said, he is aggressive, and I doubt we’ll ever see him walk in ten percent of his plate appearances, healthy or not. He’s also not quick in the outfield, so his bat will need to carry him. But take a look at this swing, his second opposite field homer of that day, and tell me it won’t. In my player comps series, I compared his upside to a less patient Will Clark, but a more realistic comp may be Rondell White, a notoriously aggressive hitter who hit for high averages and decent power during his heyday with the Expos.
The caveat, of course, is we don’t know how Kirilloff’s wrist will respond to the bone -breaking surgery and plate implant completed only six months ago. One source of optimism is the one major leaguer who underwent the same procedure over forty years ago: Kirk Gibson.
After starring in baseball and football at Michigan State, Gibson was touted as one of the game’s premier power-speed prospects in the late 1970s but almost had his career ended before it began after he took a swing during his rookie season on June 16, 1980. He felt a pop in his wrist and immediately left the game. What happened next is documented in the book Detroit Tigers 1984: What a Start! What a Finish!
“Gibson woke up the next day in severe pain. The team doctors could not find a problem, so the wrist was put in a cast to rest it. The injury resulted in a truncated season in which Gibson hit .263 with nine home runs. In August, he visited the Mayo Clinic, where doctors found the problem: an abnormal development in his arm bones. They shortened his ulna bone and inserted a steel plate. Gibson was told that he would need eight months of rehabilitation. There were no guarantees that the wrist would hold up or that Gibson would ever play baseball again. The irony was that the wrist injury would not have affected his playing football.”
Gibson did reinjure the wrist in 1981 and sat out a month, but returned and hit .328 the rest of the year. The surgery was clearly a success, as Gibson hit .275/.358/.477 the rest of the decade, winning an MVP in 1984 and hitting perhaps the most famous home run in baseball history.
By all accounts, Kirilloff is doing well in his rehab, experiencing minor soreness but not the pain he felt in 2021 or 2022. Expecting him to turn into Kirk Gibson is probably foolish (or at least unfair), but at least there is precedent for a top prospect to rebound from such an extreme procedure and have a long, productive career,

Obviously neither Kennys Vargas or Miguel Sano were ever going to become the next David Ortiz, but both were lazily compared at every juncture. As big-time sluggers that failed to realize much of their potential for Minnesota, it was low hanging fruit to bring up that suggestion. Their careers are not at all the same, and Sano’s tenure with the Twins only ended last season. Entering 2023 though, both find themselves at a crossroads.
On Thursday, the Cincinnati Reds signed Vargas to a minor-league deal. He received an invitation to big-league Spring Training, and it’s the first step on his path toward a return to the big leagues. The former Minnesota prospect hasn’t played in the majors since 2017, and after a stop overseas, he has spent time in the Dominican, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, and Mexico.
Playing 85 games last year in Mexico, Vargas put up gaudy numbers. His .324/.462/.566 slash line was punctuated with 17 home runs and 17 doubles. He played another 50 games during both the Venezuelan and Mexican winter leagues, in which he recorded 10 homers and a pair of triples.
Vargas spent all of 2018 at Triple-A Rochester for Minnesota. He posted just a .752 OPS, and while the power numbers played he whiffed plenty. After being part of the 2014 Futures Game at Target Field alongside teammate Jose Berrios, Vargas never really produced more than an average big leaguer. His career 102 OPS+ was compiled across 236 games. That Futures Game also included Joey Gallo, Jorge Lopez, Michael A. Taylor, and Alex Meyer.
It remains improbable that a 32-year-old Vargas is now the best version of himself, but the Reds should hardly have an impossible roster to crack.
On the flip side, you have Sano, who was in the big leagues as recently as 2022. Unfortunately, he was so terrible that in just 29 games, Sano generated -0.9 fWAR. He tore his meniscus and tried to return later in the year, but the knee was not in playing shape and ultimately he was shut down.
A source indicated that Sano may potentially need more time yet to recover from his injury and that a mid-season signing could be likely. He has been training down in Tampa, Florida this winter, and a workout is now on the horizon. Darren Wolfson reports that Sano will host scouts next week.
It is somewhat shocking that Sano couldn’t find a deal for 2023 before the likes of Vargas, but that is solely a reflection of where his knee is physically. Sano may be looking for a guaranteed Major League deal as well, but even with a universal designated hitter, his health and production of late have not been good at all. Sano has shown an ability to hit at the Major League level, and he did own a 112 OPS+ in 2021. He was an All-Star back in 2017 and posted a 139 OPS+ along with 34 homers for the Bomba Squad in 2019. Despite racking up strikeouts in droves, his bugaboo has largely been facing velocity. Maybe a team believes in his plate discipline enough to give him a shot, but they’ll need to see a good showing next week.
At the end of the day, neither slugger is or was ever going to come close to Ortiz. It is shocking to see Sano the one still out in the cold heading into 2023, but he also has a reputation that may precede him.

Like the other 29 MLB teams, the Minnesota Twins face a new defensive challenge in 2023: they’ll have to adapt to rules barring shifts on the infield. When we think about the ramifications of that change, we often focus on fielders’ ability to reach and field the ball. In reality, though, there’s an interaction between raw range and throwing arm–one that will become more important. To that end, bringing back Carlos Correa at shortstop was crucial, but even his strong arm faces a tougher test under the new guidelines. 
Shifts aren’t just about reaching balls that would otherwise scoot cleanly through to the outfield. They are, in nearly equal measure, about making plays more comfortable for defenders. When a big-league team deploys a shift, a much higher share of ground balls hit by the opposition are within a step or two of a fielder’s starting position. They can usually make the play, plant their feet, and make a strong, balanced throw from a firm footing.
In a post-shift world, we will see teams carefully calibrate their positioning to create as many of those easy chances as the new constraints permit. Inevitably, though, we’re going to see more plays made on the run. Since two defenders have to set up on each side of second base, the shortstop won’t be able to shade as far toward the hole against some right-handed batters as they previously had, because the second baseman will have to be a couple of steps further away from any ball hit to the left side of second base. That, in turn, will force the third baseman to play a step further off the foul line, in order to help defend the hole. 
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The human brain is fantastic, but it doesn't have the power to consider everything. For example, before you read this sentence, you ignored that you could see your nose. Your mind had been ignoring that because it's not essential.
Cognitive psychologists refer to our brains' shortcuts as heuristics or cognitive biases. There's nothing wrong with them, but they're important to remember. They play a part in the way we watch sports.
There are popular shortcuts that many people know about, such as anchoring, where we tend to base our opinions on something more in a first impression than information we learn later. I won't name names, but some schmucks may still think Miguel Sanó could be an MVP based solely on his 2015 rookie campaign.
Confirmation bias leads us to latch on to evidence that supports our preconceived notions over evidence against them. Perhaps another person supports their disdain for Miguel Sanó because of his many strikeouts, ignoring his 500-foot moonshots.
If this stuff interests you, check out this very approachable list of a few dozen different biases and heuristics). There's a well-known bias that explains what I'm going to discuss, so I'll dip into developmental psychology for this discussion.
Two episodes from the last year or so stand out to me when I think about how our brains consume sports, not so much because of what happened, but because of people's reactions.
1. After a disappointing 73-89 2021 season, owner Jim Pohlad gave the front office an A+ grade. 
2. During the 2022 season, the Twins were not completely transparent about Byron Buxton 's schedule as he worked through knee pain.
In both episodes, fans and media were in the streets wailing and gnashing their teeth. Both instances were frustrating, but were they worth the consternation they received?
One of the points in an infant's growth that developmental psychologists have identified is the development of object permanence. If you've ever played peek-a-boo with an infant, you will have seen it in action. When the adult's face hides behind the hands, then reappears, the infant gets excited because, before the face reappears, they didn't think it existed anymore.
Infants struggle to understand that things they don't see can still exist. It is a bit wild to think about. Sometimes I'm, as an adult, convinced that I don't own buffalo sauce until my wife points out the bottle in the fridge and the bottle next to it from the last time I didn't think we had any.
But enough about buffalo sauce, how does object permanence pertain to what I'm talking about here?
In the first example, many fans took Jim's comments to mean that he genuinely had no issues with how the season went and was perfectly pleased. Because this was, for the most part, the amount of information fans had to go off of, it seemed like his complete thoughts on the topic.
We, as fans, are not privy to the conversations behind closed doors between an owner and upper management of the team. Heck, others in baseball operations aren't made aware of every conversation. We can forget that.
Instead, we latch on to the soundbite and forget that the group is constantly communicating for the other 364 days a year, working toward their shared goals. Because we don't see it, though, it doesn't exist.
Please don't read this as me saying that there shouldn't be criticism of the group. We sometimes pay too much attention to the tiny bits of interaction with which we are privileged.
The second example, regarding Bryon's knee, is a bit more egregious. Following his knee flair-up in Boston last April, his presence in the lineup was a bit scattershot, which was obviously frustrating for fans—if for no other reason than that fans want to see the best players play.
However, there was a common attitude that Byron's seemingly haphazard presence in the lineup was evidence that there was "no plan" for him to play. Why? Because the team did not make any statement on his status on a day-to-day basis.
In reality, the team was monitoring his knee and its pain and range of motion daily—adjusting whenever needed. It makes sense that no team personnel would make an official statement regarding his expectations because the situation was developing.
This lack of information led some fans to see the handling as incompetent, and they believed that the team lacked a plan for getting him back out there.
Instead, behind the scenes, Buxton spent hours every day working on getting his body ready to compete. His situation was fluid, and the team was adapting to new information daily. But we, as fans, had no explicit information telling us this, so instead, because we couldn't see it, our brains told us that nothing was happening.
Perhaps there's an argument that teams should be more forthcoming with information so that fans can make more informed reactions. Still, we would have blind spots that our brains would fill in.
It's important to remember that pro sports are filled with professionals working full-time jobs. The people on the other side of the glass spend their entire days making decisions about the team that we watch for four hours a day with a rain delay. They want to win more than you want them to (with minimal exceptions).
If we fall into the trap of believing that what we see in press conferences or public statements is the entirety of the situation, our opinions can become relatively uninformed.
Some people may be incompetent at their jobs and worthy of criticism, but that criticism should be based on what we can observe rather than the gaps our brains fill in. Remember that even if we don't see it, things are happening.

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. 
Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. 
As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. 
That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. 
Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. 
After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. 
Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central?
The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. 
On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. 
The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them.
The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. 
  As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. 
What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.
 
 

The Twins neither had to drop one of the best bats in the American League nor acquire more pitching depth to technically have a successful off season. In fact, the hitters are now almost obviously in a worse place without Arraez leading off every day. But this is also a team prone to injuries—so much it led to a new trainer coming in this off season—and it is likely the Twins made this trade on knowledge of what team might be playing in 2023.
Let’s start on the pitching side. Depending on who you talk to, the Twins either had eight starting pitchers heading into the off season or two. Although no longer requiring the services of the Dylan Bundys and Chris Archers of the world, the rotation set up for this year has been beaten and bruised in recent years: Tyler Mahle’s shoulder, Bailey Ober’s groin, Tommy John for Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack (the Twins at least seem some potential upside with Paddack, signing him to an extremely team friendly extension). Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan made it through the season quite well, but neither grabbed enough innings to even qualify for awards at the end of the season. The prospects show a lot of upside, but none are an ace. With Correa and Buxton both hitting their peak seasons, the Twins aren’t necessarily interested in a bet when the American League Central remains easily taken.
Lopez thus seems like an easy, but not necessarily ideal, addition to the team. He’s certainly a great, and possibly All Star caliber pitcher, but is clearly a step below what many Twins fans hoped for at the beginning of the season. Additionally, he has similar injury questions over the last couple years. 
However, one way the trade makes more sense is if you assume that those possible injuries are not just hypotheticals but still real. Maeda and Ober last year seemed to be mysteries waiting in the wing for returns with deadlines kicked down the can. Falvey and co. have painted an optimistic picture but have seemingly remained tight lipped on what to expect, particularly on Mahle. If the Twins know if any of these pitchers are actually in the same trouble as before, the Lopez trade becomes not so much as padding as a necessity. The Twins themselves have hinted at returning Ober to Triple A, perhaps in part due to maybe looming injury concerns. 
On the upside of things, this also means the Twins have likely been able to see enough upside finally on Alex Kirilloff. Anytime the word “experimental” is used to describe a surgery can cause worry, but the Twins likely knew enough that they could trade their All Star first baseman as Kirilloff was ready to fill the void. According to Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic, “Whereas last offseason Kirilloff had to shut down his hitting for a month, this year there have been no such shutdowns.” The various projection models seem at least positive on him, hitting around .260 and a positive WRC+, which would nowhere near put him in the All Star level but also help clear the way for the next round of prospects as Jose Miranda eventually makes a mid season move there. The question for Kirilloff is not necessarily that he be fantastic as much as healthy on the field. The Twins, it seems, have seen enough to pull the trigger on what would otherwise be a somewhat alarming trade, especially after Arraez won a Gold Glove for his work at the position.
Nobody truly loves this trade, but the problem seems to in part by seeing the Twins at full strength rather than what might actually be the case. Sometimes front offices do have to make bets, but they know quite a bit more about the status of the players coming into camp next month. If the Twins see two pitchers go down by the end of April, having Lopez will be an absolute welcome. And if Kirilloff plays well enough, Arraez’s production will still be aesthetically missed, but not necessarily lost. If anything, knowing they should make this trade only confirms the worries that the team that won't be obvious to us until players report to Fort Meyers.
 

Reviewing the Twins offseason up to this point after a flurry of January activity, some notable trends and focal points emerge. In sizing up the front office's moves this winter, it strikes me that there was a clear intent to address six key areas that factored into last year's fade, starting with the biggest one: 
Better physical outcomes with a new head trainer.
One of the first moves the Twins made this offseason was replacing head athletic trainer Michael Salazar with Nick Paparesta, a reputed leader in the field who'd spent the past 12 years in Oakland with the A's.
It was a fitting top priority for the front office coming off a season that was completely wrecked by injuries, with unending recovery timelines and frustrating setbacks decimating the roster. The Twins were not a flawless team, as we'll cover below, but the level of physical attrition and number of days lost gave them no legitimate chance to hang on.
To a large extent, injuries are uncontrollable. Training staffs tend to become scapegoats in circumstances where sheer bad luck is the prime culprit. But that's the nature of the beast, and as bad as things got last year, it can't hurt to bring in a fresh – yet seasoned – perspective.
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Better pitching depth from the start.
The pitching staff was definitely hurt by injuries last year, but not to the same degree as the lineup. No, the problem with the Twins' pitching staff last year was more foundational: On Opening Day, they had Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer as members of the starting rotation. On Opening Day, they had Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, and Josh Winder – owner of zero major-league innings – all as part of the bullpen. 
This year the Twins will be much more structurally sound from the start on the pitching side. The return of Kenta Maeda, along with the acquisitions of Tyler Mahle and Pablo López, have surrounded Sonny Gray with a bevy of proven veterans. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who both pitched very well last year, push the rotation to six deep, while Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson have both proven ready to step in. Randy Dobnak is a wild card. 
On the bullpen side, Jhoan Durán emerged as a force last year while Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax are both coming off outstanding seasons. Jorge López, if he returns to form, can give the Twins an unparalleled 1-2 punch alongside Durán in the late innings. Jorge Alcalá is back after missing almost all of last year, joining middle-relief options like Trevor Megill, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe. Your mileage may vary on Emilio Pagán but he's a high-upside piece they don't need to rely on.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another addition on the relief side (Michael Fulmer, come on down?), but as things stand, the 2023 Twins are in a much better position on pitching stability. 
Dynamic contingencies and depth in the position player corps.
If you want to stir up some bad memories, I've got a recommendation to fulfill your sadistic urge: go back and pull up a random Twins starting lineup from last August or September. The club's utterly ravaged position-player corps regularly left Rocco Baldelli submitting sad lineups with little hope to compete. 
Nick Gordon and Gio Urshela trading off at cleanup. Jake Cave and Mark Contreras starting against lefties. Gilberto Celestino hitting fifth or sixth, repeatedly. It was ugly, and something none of us want to experience again. The front office is doing everything it realistically can to prevent it.
Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor are borderline starting-caliber players and top-shelf backups. They both provide experience, flexibility, and defensive prowess to help keep things chugging along in a variety of injury scenarios. The Twins are stacked with options in the corners and that's before you account for their prospects nearing readiness. 
Presently, it's kind of hard to see how someone like Gordon or Trevor Larnach is even going to find his way to steady at-bats. Things will change, as we know, but the Twins are well prepared for that eventuality. Even with their 2022 leader in plate appearances gone, Minnesota is very strong on depth across the board. 
Improved hitting against left-handed pitchers.
Southpaws were a perpetual pain point for the Twins last year, holding the team to a .240/.310/.391 overall slash line while regularly shutting down poorly optimized lineups. This owed partially to injuries, especially later on, but was also a result of poor planning. Kyle Garlick can mash lefties and is a nice piece to have on hand, but you don't want to be primarily dependent on him in that role as they were last year. 
This year, Garlick will likely open in Triple-A as ready-made depth for the same role. Meanwhile, the big-league club is significantly more balanced on the bench. Taylor could hardly be described as a "lefty masher" but he's solid against them, and should reduce the need for lefty-hitting outfielders to start against same-siders.
The big add here is Farmer, whose defensive flexibility will allow him to plug in all over and start against almost all left-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .288/.345/.492 career slash line (including .309/.380/.568 last year).
Run prevention via defensive improvements.
You might feel the Twins were not emphatic or aggressive enough in their approach to upgrading a pitching staff that ranked 14th in runs allowed and remains plagued by question marks. You'd have a fair point.
But the name of the game isn't pitching well – it's preventing runs. While performance on the mound obviously plays a major role, defense is also a big factor in this equation. The Twins weren't necessarily bad in this area last year, ranking 12th in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved thanks in large part to CF/RF, but they could stand to get better. 
In 2023, they're poised to field one of the best defensive units in the league. Buxton and Correa return as elite up-the-middle defenders, and are joined by glove-first catcher Christian Vázquez. Newcomer Joey Gallo adds a standout fielder to the corner mix. Max Kepler provides another top-shelf glove if he sticks around, and if he goes, Larnach's a very good defender in his own right. 
Alex Kirilloff is a superior first baseman to Luis Arraez (Gold Glove hub-bub aside), and we won't see Arraez's sub-par defense at second or third, which is a benefit through this lens. 
Even beyond the starting lineup, we find defensive strength in the Twins' depth. Taylor is a great center fielder whose range is elite in the outfield corners. Farmer is a capable shortstop who excels at the infield corners. Jeffers is a glove-first backup to a glove-first starter. 
 
 
 
Greater catching stability.
Speaking of Jeffers and Vázquez, the presence of these two puts the Twins in a much better position behind the plate than they were last year, when Minnesota backstops collectively posted a .629 OPS and just 1.8 fWAR. 
Dealing away Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt left the Twins woefully short on high-level catching depth. When Jeffers went down, they were forced to lean on Gary Sánchez as a starter before turning over the reins to no-hit veteran Sandy León after grabbing him from Cleveland's Triple-A club. 
Bringing in Vázquez makes a profound difference in this regard, giving the Twins two starting-caliber catchers to buttress against an injury to either. The addition of Tony Wolters on a minor-league deal also supplies the Twins with some experienced depth at Triple-A; Wolters has played more than 400 games in the majors, albeit only 16 since 2020.
Additions like Vázquez and Wolters might not be the most exciting, but like many of the other moves mentioned above, they had strategic underpinnings geared toward shoring up the weaknesses that brought down the 2022 Twins. 

The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer. 
Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? 
Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. 
However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. 
Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. 
In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. 
The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. 
I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere