Here's Why the Twins Haven't Gone Hard After Pitching

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The 2022 Twins offense, led by Byron Buxon, Jorge Polanco and others, will have a chance to win if they get any help from the pitching. Why can't that help come primarily from the internal pipeline? It's happened before.

When have the Twins created an entire rotation out of prospects in one season? I can't think of that happening before in this organization. This team has been lucky to get a decent starter once every 5 seasons (Berrios, Gibson, Liriano). Out of the pitchers you listed above only one is on the MLB top 100 list - Balazovic - and he can't stay healthy enough to pitch a full season.

This organization believes it's own press releases.

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Nick, you are spot on: the Twins are not only going to see what they have this year among their burgeoning staff options, but also are not necessarily writing off the year. If our pen is strong, there is no reason we can’t compete.

A couple of points:

1. Of the 13 possibilities (I include Jax), there is a high likelihood that most, if not all of them, barring injury or unexpected poor development/performance, get a shot in the majors this year.

2. The MO of this FO and coaching staff is all about 4-6 inning, two + times thru the order starters anyway. None of them need to be a shutdown, innings eater next year (or even further into the future for that matter, but it would be nice if one or two became that eventually). 

3. The goal should be that by ‘23 we see hopefully at least 3-4 of them develop into legitimate #2-4 starters. The beauty of that is they would all be on LEAGUE MINIMUM!  Think about that for a second. We take 13 legitimate prospects and turn them into 4 legitimate starters under team control for multiple years at a total sum of under $10MM/year. That is an incredibly strong place to be as a mid market team.
 

4. The FO then uses the cash saved to build a killer pen and, if desired, add a more true #1 and/or a key position player or two to fill a hole. Building a killer pen is cheaper, and way less risky, than signing multiple FA starters on longer term deals.

I’ve written this before on the TD and I’ll write it again: I hope the Twins win as many games as possible in ‘22, but this organization (with the resigning of Buxton, the core young positional talent both up and on the way, this cadre of emerging starters/pitchers, and the low cost of the core coupled with an owner willing to spend when the window is open) has a unique chance next year to position the team for several successful, fun, exciting years. I’m more than willing to be patient in ‘22 with that ultimate goal in mind if need be.

 

#3 &#4 are huge!  People may not like it but I believe the FO is managing toward this goal.  It's going to be really exciting to see if they can transition multiple pitchers this year.  It's going to be a lot of fun because there is going to be much more than that day's game on the line when these prospects take the mound.

It's all in the 40-man roster.

The Twins have two current open spots. Come spring training, they will probably have two more with Madea and Enlow going on the longer-term disabledroster, although Enlow would come off eventually.

The Twins currently have eight bullpen arms: Rogers, Cotton, Duffey, Garza, Moran, Alcala, Stashak, Thielbar. If any go on the short-term IL, they have no one else...unless you factor in Thorpe or Jax. Thorpe has to start the season or the Twins say bye-bue. Does he replace a bullpen arm mentioned above, or open in the rotation.

Dobnak, I have little faith in the guy at the moment. He needs to work out of AAA-again, no matter how promising his spring. And he needs to be considered strictly a rotation arm. Otherwise, let him off the 40-man.

The Twins need innings, and people who can get past the 5th inning, otherwise the bullpen will be an utter mess. Of course, if you are in a "rebuild" and just getting pitchers experience, and you don't need a bonifide closer, the Twins could be set.

Bundy has pitched above 150 innings a couple of times, but only reached that number of innings total combined the last two seasons.

Ober could easily be pushed to 150. 30 five inning starts. Not what I want to see, but.

Ryan will get every opportunity to pitch. He has basically done 100 innings 3 of the past four sesons, so could be pushed. But, still, would like someone to pitch 30 games and more than 5 innings a start. Otherwise, just trade for Jake Odorizzi

Griffin Jax has been a workhorse. But, like Bundy, you only want him pitching lots and lots of innings IF he doesn't allow lots and lots of run. You can maybe have one guy giving you bad numbers. But two? And, again, if rebuilding maybe okay. If a guy is pitching this badly, though, what is his future in the orga nization.

The youngsters. Duran has basically missed two easons. How many innings can he pitch? You can pull the minor league trick that the Twins used alot last season and had very few starters go more than 3-4 innings at times to build up their game endurance as well as push innings. But even if Duran started the saeson in the majors, how many games could he potentially start. 

Balazovic needs to get some AAA games under his belt. I was surprised the Twins didn't bring him up at the end of last season. Give him some of those John Gant games and expose him to what he needs to work on in winter ball/training. It is one thing that upsets one about the Twins. You a

had nothing to lose by elevating Balazovix and Strotman to the majors in the final weeks of the season. You had no need to give innings to Gant and Barnes and Jax if you plan NOT to be in rebuild mode. See what you have. Both Balazovic and Strotman could be on the major league roster and give innings to the team, but will they be clobbered getting experienced and up-and-down to the minors, with still high hopes for 2023 pulling it all together?

Sands, Winder and Vallimont will also need exposure to higher caliber players. Now these guys, as well as the aforementioned, are starters. Potential future starting arms for the organizations. Not yet to be considered relief arms. They will hopefully get opportunities at AAA ball, although how much room there will be on that roster if you have Jax and Strotman and Barnes and Shepherd and Sammons fighting for innings? You suddenly have no room in the inn, or who plays and in what situations. Again, these three can all pitch short games, where you double up rotation arms, if the roster permits. But if any of these three made it to the majors, would you get 10-15-20 starts out of them.

But you need to see pretty much ALL of the names mentioned above in the majors league at some point, deciding who stays and who goes as you end 2022. Are Jax/Thorpe longterm, or a switch to the pen. Why did you trade for Strotman if you didn't feel he was ready...just let Tampa release him and sign him because they didn't see him as part of their future.

Balazovic, Sands, Duran could all be in the rotation, joining Maeda and Ober and Ryan for 2023. With Winder still in ther wings (remember how these names change fast every season). You still have Woods-Richardson, Canterino and Varland, all hoping to get a regular turn at AA Wichita and maybe some time in St. Paul.

So, in overall 40-man positioning, the Twins do look fairly good...if they leave one roster spot open for the bullpen expressess where you bring him up, release him while repalcing with another new name, releasing him, etc. You have to have flexibility where you don't add names too soon that you would rather have on the farm. The Twins already have that issue with Balazovic, Duran, Strotman, Winder, Vallimont, Jax. All names that IF you are a truly competing team, you would only see them for short-term IL-list replacements. 

Are the Twins blowing smoke about being competitive? They have Sano and Donaldson playing...where. No shortstop or left-fielder of note. Arraex and Miranda and Gordon doing what? Catchers that will be catching too many arms trying to impress, and ultimately learning.

Who are the five arms you expect to pitch starting in April for the 2022 Twins. Actually, make that 7 or 8 as you have to double up on arms because of lack of innings pitched.

If properly managed in 2022, who are the five opening in 2023. Remember that Maeda will be back, but do you still expect 200 innings out of him?

Who do you see as longer term keeps out of the dozen of: Balazovic, Duran, Strotman, Winder, Vallimont, Thorpe, Woods-Richardson, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Canterino, Enlow. Who do you see debuting in 2023 and becoming a mainstay in 2024 from even deeper in the minors?

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Nick, you are spot on: the Twins are not only going to see what they have this year among their burgeoning staff options, but also are not necessarily writing off the year. If our pen is strong, there is no reason we can’t compete.

A couple of points:

1. Of the 13 possibilities (I include Jax), there is a high likelihood that most, if not all of them, barring injury or unexpected poor development/performance, get a shot in the majors this year.

2. The MO of this FO and coaching staff is all about 4-6 inning, two + times thru the order starters anyway. None of them need to be a shutdown, innings eater next year (or even further into the future for that matter, but it would be nice if one or two became that eventually). 

3. The goal should be that by ‘23 we see hopefully at least 3-4 of them develop into legitimate #2-4 starters. The beauty of that is they would all be on LEAGUE MINIMUM!  Think about that for a second. We take 13 legitimate prospects and turn them into 4 legitimate starters under team control for multiple years at a total sum of under $10MM/year. That is an incredibly strong place to be as a mid market team.
 

4. The FO then uses the cash saved to build a killer pen and, if desired, add a more true #1 and/or a key position player or two to fill a hole. Building a killer pen is cheaper, and way less risky, than signing multiple FA starters on longer term deals.

I’ve written this before on the TD and I’ll write it again: I hope the Twins win as many games as possible in ‘22, but this organization (with the resigning of Buxton, the core young positional talent both up and on the way, this cadre of emerging starters/pitchers, and the low cost of the core coupled with an owner willing to spend when the window is open) has a unique chance next year to position the team for several successful, fun, exciting years. I’m more than willing to be patient in ‘22 with that ultimate goal in mind if need be.

 

the only problem with the killer pen, is that it seldom works that all relievers have good years. And still no guarantee that one bad pitch here or there does not cost you.  I can see signing one more great reliever (I wanted Knebel), but they should get some fallback options if they intend to compete this year.  If not than this plan if fine, but don't expect a few of the prospects will fail, some will succeed later, and a few will come and do well from the start.  That is a lot of pressure on the young pitchers, but we shall see. 

I'm generally in favor of letting young arms get a shot at the rotation rather than filling the bottom of the rotation with a veteran who might have just as much downside.  We've seen how poorly that can work out with Shoemaker and Happ. However, I'm not sure I'm ready to give the front office that much credit for this being an intentional strategy at this point.  We don't know what was going on behind the scenes in the past month and I think it's just as likely they were caught off-guard by the quick market and simultaneously undervalued the talent compared to other organizations.

It hasn't really been the M.O. of this front office to leave a spot open in the rotation for young guys.  In 2020, filling out the rotation with Bailey and Hill, they had in theory 6 veteran starters if they had managed to all be healthy at the same point.  And they had also signed Jhoulys Chacin but released him before the season eventually started.  In 2018 they signed Anibal Sanchez to compete for an opening day roster spot with 5 veterans already ahead of him.

Now, the "promising" young arms being blocked in those days were the likes of Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Lewis Thorpe, Fernando Romero, and Randy Dobnak.  With that group it is pretty easy in hindsight to say they were right to be sure they had enough veterans.  We have also seen that the young guys will inevitably find opportunities due to injuries, though that wouldn't really be a point in favor of the strategy of relying on young guys to start the season, if that is what the front office is planning.  Especially since almost none of their current top prospects had a completely clean bill of health last year.

I still think they will eventually fill the rotation in some way to the point where Ryan and Ober will be the two most "unproven" starters on opening day (at least barring a spring training injury to a veteran).  And at this point I'm prepared to not be overly excited about the two other veterans joining Bundy.  We'll just have to wait and see though.

Of course this is a rebuild. They have no starters from last year’s opening rotation. They have no choice but rebuild the pitching staff. 

There are so many directions they can go but ultimately I hope any investment, whether it be in dollars or prospect capital, goes towards pitchers they control in 2023. They can rebuild the 2022 rotation with one year contracts but all that does is increase the likelihood that they will need to rebuild again next year.

I would strongly prefer the struggles of young pitchers as opposed to pitchers on one year contracts. They need to rebuild but they need to rebuild with a foundation for 2023 as a priority.

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Are the Twins blowing smoke about being competitive?

They're either lying or they're too incompetent to realize this isn't a contender. I don't really like either option.

As you said the pitching staff is all question marks, shortstop is a giant hole and they're relying on rookies in left field.

If these pitchers are ready and the reason the front office isn't going after high quality, proven, front end starters is to avoid roadblocking the pitchers we have, then no additional starters should be signed. This article reads like having your cake and eating it, too.

We've got 3 rotation spots locked up already. Signing more would just be log-jamming our prospects behind mediocre pitchers instead of log-jamming them behind elite pitchers. Even more pointless.

No idea why the Twins signed Bundy if they have all these arms ready for 2022, but lets look into them.

• Balazovic was challenged to make adjustments to use his breaking pitch and changeup more instead of relying so heavily on his fastball. He wound up inconsistent and ineffective down the stretch. He's never spent time at AAA.
• Duran has arm issues, pitched only 16 innings last year and couldn't get outs or throw strikes at AAA. He shouldn't be considered a starter candidate before 2023, if he doesn't need surgery. If he does, we won't see him as a starter until 2024.
• Winder seems like he's ready for an MLB rotation spot. He had "dead arm" or a shoulder issue down the stretch and a rough go of things at AAA, but he's honestly probably the most ready of the prospects.
• Sands, like Balazovic may be ready to make the jump from AA to the big show, but I'm sure the Twins would like him to see action in AAA. He only pitched 80 innings last year due to an undisclosed injury.
• Vallimont can't throw strikes and can't get outs.
• Woods Richardson barely pitched for us. I'm really not buying the story on him just needing to work out to pitch again. He had a month off pitching. It doesn't take 2 months to get ready to pitch again. I like him as a prospect, but there's no chance he's ready before the end of 2022 at the earliest. Something's amiss here.
• Stroatman can't throw strikes and if he tries extra hard to throw them, he gets crushed. 
• Canterino's elbow is awfully sketchy. He pitched only 23 innings in 2021 and didn't make it above A+. 2023 at the absolute earliest in the rotation.
• Varland is a great story, but there are a lot of tempered expectations because of what he was when drafted. Does Varland have the stuff or does he just have adequate polish to succeed in the low minors? He hasn't pitched above A+ ball. Listing him as a potential MLB pitcher in 2022 isn't realistic, but I suppose it's theoretically possible.

Of the list, I would say Winder and mayyyyyybe Sands could take a rotation spot day 1. Balazovic could join the rotation in maybe June after a couple months at AAA? Woods-Richardson could get a cup of coffee. I don't see Canterino or Varland joining the rotation before 2023 and Duran, Vallimont, Stroatman are probably bullpen guys.

There is nothing more dispiriting than listening to a Twins game when someone, like Shoemaker or Happ, blows a lead or pitches a lousy inning and puts the Twins in a hole.

That game against Seattle, way early in the season, I think the Twins were up like 7-1 or something at home, and Shoemaker gives up a 3-run bomb after being lights out.  Loses his cool, gets tossed by the ump and turns out, he never had good stuff in any case.  He's worried about a call?

I can take it from a young pitcher.  It's how they learn.  Next time out, maybe they make an adjustment, but if they can get the job done and learn from mistakes, there's a sense of imminent progress in the clubhouse.  Not so with veterans because you know they are who they are:  they have earned their mediocrity.  There's no higher place for them.

The rooks, who knows what they will become?  Even someone like Liam Hendriks, seemed like a failure as a young Twin, next time you see him, he's one of the best closers in the game.  How'd that happen?  No idea, but that kind of thing doesn't happen with Shoemaker or Happ and never will.

It will certainly make listening to the Twins interesting again.

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If these pitchers are ready and the reason the front office isn't going after high quality, proven, front end starters is to avoid roadblocking the pitchers we have, then no additional starters should be signed. This article reads like having your cake and eating it, too.

Of the list, I would say Winder and mayyyyyybe Sands could take a rotation spot day 1. Balazovic could join the rotation in maybe June after a couple months at AAA? Woods-Richardson could get a cup of coffee. I don't see Canterino or Varland joining the rotation before 2023 and Duran, Vallimont, Stroatman are probably bullpen guys.

A bunch of people are going to hate or be real sad on your realistic view of the prospects.

and lets not forget Ryan only has 26.2 major league innings, and Ober has only pitched in 20 MLB games

3 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Agreed - I really like Nick's analysis and always appreciate that @Nick Nelson frequently engages in the forum.

I really doubt we see a trade for starting pitching. It would likely cost the prospects that the FO has been working so hard to collect and is banking on to be in the MLB pitching staff. I would guess they'll sign Pineda (or another 1 year $10m-ish starting pitcher)

I agree w/ Gleeman and the Geek that rebuilding doesn't make sense so they have to competently  fill our holes. Although this FO have difficulty making big trades so I tend to agree w/ you that they won't. But depending on bunch of weak pitchers to pitch around 3 innings and try to juggle them around will be a challenge for them to compete. Gleeman and the Geek also stated how FO doesn't like to gamble on big $ FA pitchers so trade makes a lot of sense. Hording prospects and players which are redundant (right now we have an abundance of pitching prospect which they can evaluate and spare a prospect or 2) is counter productive especially when gaining a much needed current pitching.

I definitely don't like the undertone that its acceptable that if they go for a "mid rotation guy like Michael Pineda" that is considered an acceptable approach. Pineda was on this team last year. Extending Buxton, re-signing Pineda, and bringing in a lottery pick like Bundy is not improving on what they had last year. It's not even attempting to. And the fact that us Twins fans are ok with that approach is why they continue to do it. Why spend and go after a legit championship when the fans will support the team no matter what you throw out there? I'm having a hard time finding a reason to be interested in the upcoming season.

5 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Last year was an absolute disaster. If the OP was the plan all along, why didn’t more of these guys get a taste of the bigs? At least some long relief… instead we watched Albers et al get hammered

Great question Sconnie.

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Of course this is a rebuild. They have no starters from last year’s opening rotation. They have no choice but rebuild the pitching staff. 

There are so many directions they can go but ultimately I hope any investment, whether it be in dollars or prospect capital, goes towards pitchers they control in 2023. They can rebuild the 2022 rotation with one year contracts but all that does is increase the likelihood that they will need to rebuild again next year.

I would strongly prefer the struggles of young pitchers as opposed to pitchers on one year contracts. They need to rebuild but they need to rebuild with a foundation for 2023 as a priority.

I'd say it is a "partial rebuild" from what the Twins ended with last year. Ober and Ryan were part of last years rebuild, since they were not starters for the Twinkies at the beginning of 2021, but during the 2021 year, they became starters and were regular starters at the end of the season.  Maeda and Pineda are gone and who knows who the 5th starter was when the season ended last year? I sure don't. So we can take Ober and Ryan as 2 starters from the end of last year and they shall be called, "Holdovers" and the other 3-5 starters for 2022 will be new, and therefore can be part of a rebuilt rotation, therefore they shall be called  "Rebuildables".  

Great article Nick. This question needs to be discussed and answered by Derek and Thad and they need to report to TD in writing by the end of 2021. 

Well, the rationalizations for doing nothing about the rotation before the lockout are in full swing now.

And it's not that you're wrong, Nick, it's just that we again seem to be rushing right in to make excuses for this organization. Excuses they aren't even making - they've said next-to-nothing to the fans about their seemingly-changed plans for 2022. Though, as you point out, they might never have been planning to sign a top FA starter.

I get the sense that lots of teams have pitching prospects like the Twins. Our pitching prospects are not particularly exceptional, and we currently have a mid-tier farm system, and most have been seriously hurt. Like you, I have *hope" that they'll pan out, but there are no guarantees that even one of them will become an impact starter.

And this organization needs an impact starter - multiple impact starters. There was nothing wrong with signing a few reliable, established veterans, even if 2022 seems lost. They could have served as mentors for younger pitchers, OR they could possibly be traded at the deadline if they overperform and the younger pitchers prove to be ready.

This line from your article sums up this sad attitude that we seem to have as Twins fans: "Maybe even win some games." A year after having WS aspirations, our fan expectations are so embarrassingly low now that we're crossing our fingers hoping that *maybe* some of our hurt pitching prospects might debut next year and win a few games. Good gosh.

But, if you're trying to find or make some sense of reason in all this, your article does seem to get there.

I agree that is probably what's happening, but for me the biggest issue is that half the guys on this list are already 24 or 25 and haven't really sniffed the big leagues yet.  They are already past peak prime for prospects, so best case is likely a back of the rotation starter anyway.  The Twins have been lacking in front of the rotation starters for so long now, I fear we've all just come to accep that the best we can do is a few 3 or 4s, including the FO. 

I don't look at this as a rebuild. This is a chance to find out who has the ability and temperament to be a Big League pitcher. If this is the way the Twins do it,, this should be a fascinating year.

I’m not nearly as interested in this experiment as many of you. I’m interested in winning games in 2022 and this plan ain’t going to get it done. 

If I stand outside of being a Twins' fan and look at these pitchers that are supposed to be the future and the saviors of this team and it's seemingly now 7 year plan FO (is that enough time, yet?), I am not impressed at all, and with only  Balazovic raised in our own farm rated in the top 100 of MLB prospects (Ryan is a recent trade), it seems that others outside of being a Twins' fan are equally unimpressed. It is what it is, now, as our guys were trying to figure out how to navigate while others were already sailing, and already caught all the fish that weren't in the home net.

It could all happen. Sure. Maybe it will. I hope it will. That would impress me. Right now, I enjoy the optimism, but am not pretending to be impressed just because I am a Twins' fan. 

We will need a lot of luck. A ton of luck. 

Canterino threw 23 pitches last season, Duran threw 16, and each dealt with elbow issues. Assuming the Twins get lucky and there's no surgical intervention, those guys still aren't going to throw a significant number of innings, let alone get much experience at the major league level. Maybe Winder's shoulder issues were just fatigue, but even if his injury situation is also a best case scenario, breaking down after 70ish innings isn't encouraging; he's likely limited this year as well. SWR pitched so poorly the Twins decided to shut him down, but he's another guy with workload questions. That leaves Balazovic to round out the Twins' best shot at an "impact," arm, and none of these guys really profile as a front of the rotation arm. These guys aren't likely to start the year in MN. How much "learning," or evaluation is actually going to occur? 

From where I'm sitting the Twins still have a gaping hole at the top of the rotation, with Ryan as a long shot to fill in as a 3 rather than 4-5 type. If the belief is that the pipeline will debut and solidify the pitching need, why not get that front line starter(s) to supplement and actually try to win some games? If the prospects are still viewed as massive question marks, why not sign legitimate pitchers as insurance and again, maybe win some games. There really isn't an excuse for sitting on your hands and wasting a year, particularly with the position players in place. 

I sincerely hope that "the plan all along," wasn't to fail miserably in FA, be meh in trades, and pin all hope of success over the next 3-5 seasons on a good but not great group of prospect arms. Gunnarthor nailed it; the goalposts have shifted considerably if we're rationalizing sitting out an offseason and wasting a year as necessary to build a "sustainable winner," and make upcoming 40 man decisions easier.