Looking at When Odorizzi Should Pitch in the Playoffs

I think the Twins should have him start game 1 and take him out at the first sign of trouble. He's been the Twins most consistent starter this year so having him get a chance at 2 games (game 1 and potentially game 4 or 5) would be good.

You mentioned he hasn't had great career success at Yankee stadium, but he gave the Twins 6 innings of shutout baseball there this year. Keep that trend going, Jake.

I agree on game one also. We need two starts from our best starter. I think just about anyone will give up an extra home run per game while pitching in New York

Yes, he has been the hottest of the established pitchers and it is not fair to give Dobnak the ball in game one. 

Game one Odorizzi

Two Dobnak

Three Berrios to clinch

The Yanks are going to foul him off to death.

Odorizzi will throw 100 pitches in less than five innings.

That high fastball is going in the 1B stands, the 3B stands, behind the plate, down the lines.

Twins will have to hit to win this series.

I would give the nod to Odorizzi.     Whichever does not start game 1 should start game 3.  If they just give us 5 innings fine.   There is a reason we are carrying at least 9 relievers.   May throw the 6th.   If he does well have him throw the 7th if not then bring in Duffey for 2 and Rogers for one.    Dobnak and 3 or 4 other relievers for game 2.  Since Berrios is the only likely one to go more than 5 innings it would probably be a good idea to let the relievers go more than 1 inning if they throw well.   Most of them have built up to that anyway

As I've said from the beginning:

 

I do not choose my game two starter until game one is finished.

 

If the Twins lose game one, I put Odorizzi on the mound for game two because I don't want to go to Minnesota down 0-2 and he gives me the best chance of not doing that.

 

If I'm up 1-0, Odo pitches game three because running bullpen games back-to-back is probably a bad idea.

Agree with this take. I'm on board with this.

As I've said from the beginning:

 

I do not choose my game two starter until game one is finished.

 

If the Twins lose game one, I put Odorizzi on the mound for game two because I don't want to go to Minnesota down 0-2 and he gives me the best chance of not doing that.

 

If I'm up 1-0, Odo pitches game three because running bullpen games back-to-back is probably a bad idea.

Makes a lot of sense.  But something way in the back of my mind is telling me the best pitching performance of the first three games will come from Dobnak...together with a couple/three relievers for innings 6-9.  So no matter the results of game 1, I would trot Dobnak out to the mound for game 2.

Tough call. I'd start Berrios Game 1 on a very, very short leash. Recently, we have no idea what we get with him on the mound, but at his best he's the best we have. Our strength is our relief pitchers this year since the All Star game. Game 2: Dobnak. Go with the hot hand. Let's take advantage of that. Odorizzi: Game 3. Finish off the Yankees at home with Jake. If we don't sweep, we use our best, the relief pitchers, in the last two games unless Berrios shows us what he's made of. It's catch as catch can against the Yankees. The taste of that game we led 8-2 and lost 14-12 hasn't disappeared yet. As far as I'm concerned, everybody on the pitching staff is on a very short leash.

Which of our 'aces' is more likely to lose it quickly? We know when Berrios starts to go bad, it goes downhill quickly. Yet, the team I think feels he is THE ace still and will get game one. Dobnak is the wild card here. We don't know how he will perform under the great pressure of post season against the Yankee monster.

I see Berrios, Dobnak and Odorizzi in that order. But I also agree fully that they are all on short leashes. I don't have strong feelings on any of this actually. And I'm betting the Yankees are struggling with their rotation in the same way. Lots of question marks.

Maybe turn the question inside out. Who do you want to pitch twice in Yankee Stadium if necessary? Berrios. So he starts game two and five. Odo thus starts one and 4, with a short leash in one, knowing that Berrios can save the bullpen in 2.

I go Odorizzi, Dobnak, Berrios and then see what happens.  Use Perez out of the pen in the first three, if needed.  This also gives you the option of starting Odorizzi in Game 4 on short rest, if the Twins are down 2-1.  I think we start with our most consistent pitcher and set that pitcher up to pitch again in the series if needed.

I get it, I wonder the same thing myself... but that's a gut feeling not based in reality. Any quick hook you give Dobnak, you can give Odorizzi. 

 

And who is the better pitcher? That's pretty clear. It's Odorizzi. The only thing that convinces us Dobnak will be good is his quick hook, not actual talent.

Who was the better pitcher in 2019 and who will be the better pitcher in the future may be two different answers.  Will Dobnak be one of those guys who has been passed over his entire life, a person who has a bulldog mentality who continues to prove everyone wrong?  I don't know the answer, but I will not rule out that he has a chance to be that pitcher.  So to me, it isn't clear who the better pitcher will be going forward...beginning sometime this weekend.

Odorizzi has never once started on short rest, in his entire career.
I really doubt this staff will try it for the first time now. Could be available for a couple innings out of the bullpen though.

In a win or go home playoff game, anything is possible.  Strasburg never had a relief appearance in his entire career until two nights ago.  If he is the best option in a game you need to win, it becomes more tempting to go with him even if he only gives you a few innings.

Typical pre game type of discussion  but who pitches what game is far less important than how who ever pitches what game is able to execute their pitches and, above all, be the aggressor on the mound as opposed to being afraid of balls flying over the fences. I can still see Ervin Santana taking the mound with a 2-0 lead in the first inning and having no idea where the strike zone was or, worse, being afraid to throw a strike. Just go get 'em.

I think I would lean to Odorizzi in Game 1, Dobnak in game 2 and then Berrios at Home.    I don't know this as fact but I am guessing Odorizzi would handle the pressure of the first start better and he has pitched better down the stretch.   Dobnak I want for Yankee stadium since he is more prone to throw grounders.     Not sure what to do for Game #4 if necessary.   Since the series is play 2 games then a day rest, play 2 games then a day rest I think our best relievers can go back-to-back games if we want to have game #4 be a reliever game.    All hands on deck for game #5

As I've said from the beginning:

 

I do not choose my game two starter until game one is finished.

 

If the Twins lose game one, I put Odorizzi on the mound for game two because I don't want to go to Minnesota down 0-2 and he gives me the best chance of not doing that.

 

If I'm up 1-0, Odo pitches game three because running bullpen games back-to-back is probably a bad idea.

If that is true, he should start game one. I don’t happen to believe it’s true. Most of the Yankee hitters have seen Odorizzi. A lot. No one has seen Dobnak. Scouts only can tell you so much. Until you actually stand in against the guy, you just don’t know what to expect.

I would go Odorizzi, Dobnak, Berrios. Simply because I think Berrios is the guy who will most “feed” off the home crowd.

I also don’t agree with “wait and see” before setting the next game starter. There’s a reason why literally no team does that. Ever. Sure, injuries and rainouts can cause a rotation to get shuffled during the season. But teams don’t do it needlessly.

I guess my question is could they piggyback Berrios/Odo in Game 1 a la Scherzer/Strasburg?  It is my understanding that Stras will pitch again early in the LDS because they treated the Wild Card game as a side-session day.  If that is possible, I might go Berrios for 2 trips through the lineup and if the game is going the Twins way back him up with Odo for 2 innings to bridge the middle innings.  Then, he can come back and Start Game 3.  Dobnak gets Game 2.  if the game is not going the Twins way they can mop up Game 1 and start Odo Game 2. 

Remember, with the rest days both the Game 1 and Game 2 starters are available for Game 5, unless Game 1 starter comes back and pitches Game 4 on short rest, which seems unlikely unless the Twins are down 2-1 and they need someone to go on short rest to try to survive to Game 5.  

Two trips through the order is 70+ pitches.

Zero chance Berrios throws 70 pitches, then starts again on 2 days rest.

Sandy Koufax pitched a shutout in game 5 of the 1965 World Series and then another in game 7, on 2 days rest. I can’t find pitch count data, but I’d guess 110-120 each.

But, that is why he is Sandy Koufax and no one else is.

I'd definitely save him for game 3 for all the talked about reasons, because I think that  makes game 3, with the excitement of coming back to Target Field, as close to an automatic win as you can get in this series. And then he would be available in relief in game 5. Maybe even an inning in game 1 instead of his bullpen. Split in the Bronx, win games 3 and 4 behind Odorizzi and the bullpen. That is our best chance. 

Gut tells me Berrios starts game 1. I don't know what the Twins braintrust and analytics tell them. If my crystal ball was working, and it told me a "sharp" Berrios would be on the mound for game 1, I'd definitely go with him. One game this season in Yankee stadium, vs career numbers, tells my Odorizzi and that short RF porch aren't a great match.

I think Brock is right about game 2.

I HATE to do this, but let us assume the "sharp" Berrios, pen and hitters win game 1. It would seem natural to put your next best SP out there for game 2. But again, history, I think I agree on Dobnak, more of a groundball pitcher, for game 2 and a potential bullpen game.

That puts Oddo in charge of game 3 at home, with a day of rest for guys used in the pen to be ready to go.