Zephrin

Personally, I think $52M is high - especially for multi-year commitments. Remember, the young bats are entering/in arbitration and they will cost more so funds need to be available on that side of the ledger. I hope they find a way to pick up a true ace and I'm ok with paying a premium for that service. But as a team that will have some level of payroll limitations it would be prudent to reserve at least one spot, and maybe two, for developing talent. If the Twins grab 1 big gun and go into the season with Odorizzi as their #3, bring in a veteran innings-eater at the #4, and let Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe/Graterol fill out the back end I would be fine with the decision. If the young guys don't develop or there are injuries they can make a splash at the deadline. But for now some level of payroll flexibility is what will help the Twins keep their window open for more years.

Can someone please help me with QO mechanics? 1. Odo accepts. He is then assured of playing for the Twins at the QO level for a year. But the QO contract could be replaced at any time with a negotiated contract. (Right?) In this case, are there predetermined parameters around AAV or length, or is the negotiated contract simply subject to normal contract rules? 2. Odo rejects. This feels a bit unlikely after the Keuchel saga last year, but let's say he does. Can the Twins still negotiate with him, or are they completely out of the running at that point? If they are allowed to continue negotiating and happen to be the highest bidder, is the QO compensation draft stuff null and void, or would the Twins lose their 1st rounder and have it replaced with a sandwich pick?

Yes, but I was suggesting that Berrios goes 2 trips through the order and turns it over to Odo for a couple innings. If Odo throws 30-35 pitches over 2 innings he could come back and pitch Game 3. I agree that if either pitcher goes 2 trips/4-5 innings they are done until at least Game 4.

Adrianza over Tortuga - assuming they saw what they needed health-wise - makes sense. Gibson might be more of a loyalty add than a real cog in the machine, but if you leave him off he is replaced by who? Thorpe? Not a huge upside there anyway, and if the Twins get blasted in a game they can trot Gibson out for 4-5 innings to preserve the rest of the 'pen. I guess the other option for him is to trot out a Gibson/Smeltzer tandem for Game 4 if we are up 2-1 and prevent Berrios from going on short rest. (And let Berrios/Odo get you 6-7 innings combined in Game 5.)

Remember, with the rest days both the Game 1 and Game 2 starters are available for Game 5, unless Game 1 starter comes back and pitches Game 4 on short rest, which seems unlikely unless the Twins are down 2-1 and they need someone to go on short rest to try to survive to Game 5.

I guess my question is could they piggyback Berrios/Odo in Game 1 a la Scherzer/Strasburg? It is my understanding that Stras will pitch again early in the LDS because they treated the Wild Card game as a side-session day. If that is possible, I might go Berrios for 2 trips through the lineup and if the game is going the Twins way back him up with Odo for 2 innings to bridge the middle innings. Then, he can come back and Start Game 3. Dobnak gets Game 2. if the game is not going the Twins way they can mop up Game 1 and start Odo Game 2.

I think it is fair to want to see some professional results, but having Cavaco at #11 is either an unfair assessment of his potential or the Twins made a pretty big first round mistake. I suspect Falvine and Co. would have him a bit higher up the list I doubt they trade Kirilloff unless the Twins try to land a pretty big fish on the trade market. Larnach or Rooker make more sense to me as a centerpiece for a significant trade.

I agree this is a formidable bottom 3rd. I don't love Buxton batting behind Sano, though. Could nullify his speed a bit.

Is there such a thing as a too-high K rate anymore? Look at the praise being heaped on Joey Gallo this year, and his K rate often approaches 40% for a year. (It's 35.5% in 2019.) As long as Sano keeps taking his walks and mashing doubles and homers he will have significant value. You also have to put his production into context within the team. As a team, the Twins aren't striking out very much, so having one "true outcome" player in the lineup works. Plus, Sano's OBP is above .350. Even with a bit of regression, as long as he keeps it above .325 (which is what Buxton's OBP is right now and folks aren't complaining about him) he will be a valuable cog in the massive hitting attack.

I think I agree with this. Pitching is tricky and it would be good to see a bit more from Berrios before locking him up. There is also the (perhaps unfair) consideration that he is a bit small and perhaps more likely to wear down or break down than a bigger pitcher.

I didn't see it mentioned here (maybe I missed it), but Law stated the following about Javier: "Javier is expected to be ready for spring training, although that surgery could affect his arm and may push him to second base." Is this rumor-mongering or is there real concern he might have to move to 2nd? That would hurt his value quite a bit considering he probably doesn't hit well enough to be "average" at second, right?

It's hard to believe there is a more talented minor league team than Chattanooga, but after looking it up it seems legit.

"Tyler Duffey took a no-decision despite having, arguably, the best game of any Twins pitcher - majors or minors - this season." Then shouldn't he have been the Pitcher of the Day over Stewart?

I know Thorpe is out this year, but what is the status of Landa, Rosario and Romero? Will any of them see time this year? I recall thinking each had shown glimpses of promise pre-injury.

So, slightly off topic. But one of your initial premises is: "Breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbrenner (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is another matter) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with, at least, plus five wins." While I agree that it was probably time for change, subjective criticism on Gardenhire has always been that he is an above average manager. This has been upheld (to the degree possible anyway) objectively using some fairly well reasoned stats at places like http://darowski.com/hall-of-wwar/expectancy/ There are many signs that point to better things for the Twins this year and into the future, but I don't think the rookie manager is going to be worth 5 more wins than Gardenhire was.