minman1982

From 2019 to 2021, Sano averaged 239 Ks per 162 games and hit for an average of 0.229 in 1026 at bats. That would seem to be a large enough sample to say who Sano is as a batter. Outside of 30 or 40 homeruns he might hit, he is a complete black hole in terms of offense.

I have to believe there is someone out there who is going to offer Sano a minor league deal and ship him to AAA just to take a chance. I don't think it will be the Twins but someone will spend a couple hundred thousand just to see if Sano still has something.

I think the problem with trying to calculate the odds of successfully stealing is that there are so many variables to consider. Many of these are hard to quantify and use to predict the outcome of the play. How good is the catcher at throwing out potential base stealers? How fast does the pitcher deliver to the plate? Does the pitcher have a great/poor pickoff move which changes how much a player can lead off first? How quick are the 2B and/or SS at applying a tag? How fast is the runner at first? How fast does the pitcher throw? Where is the pitch going to be located? This might be one of those plays where a large sample size evens out some of the variability in the play over the long run but this will require a team to steal a lot of bases. If a team gets the reputation for one that is aggressive on the base paths, it should change how other teams approach them and thus alter the odds.

Found an answer to my question. Looks like a success rate of about 75% is when stealing second becomes advantageous from an expected runs perspective. If the Twins are only successful about two thirds of the time, this would probably explain why they aren't running more. https://www.math.emory.edu/~ckeyes3/blog_stealing_bases.html

Baserunning: it is interesting this is the first article I have seen that mentioned this when the Twins were downright awful in this area last season. So many blunders on real basic things. I would also like to see them more active on the basepaths. Try to steal a base every now and then. The Twins were dead last in both stolen base attempts and stolen bases last season. The Twins were successful about two thirds of the time when they did steal. Does anyone know what the break-even point is for stealing second? At what success rate does it become advantageous to try to steal and risk the out?

There is no deal that is worth bringing a guy like this on. I would rather watch the Twins lose 120 games in 2023 than have Bauer on the team.

How about $60M for 2 years? That is what the Twins would have been on the hook for had Correa not opted out right? I think Correa's camp has completely screwed themselves.

From everything I have read, the Twins made a competitive offer. Correa chose a few more years and some more money over a larger annual paycheck. Can't say I really blame the guy. I think the focus should turn to Rodon first and then Swanson second. If I was to list the needs of this team going into the offseason, I would have put them in this order: 1. A starting catcher who can hit the ball 2. A clear top of the rotation starting pitcher: they have a lot of solid depth pieces but lack the one dude you go to when you need to dominate a game, protect the bullpen, and get the win. 3. Figure out what to do at shortstop (do you sign someone long term or plug the hole until the calvary arrives from the farm?) 4. An impact relief pitcher 5. A MLB caliber outfielder, preferably a center fielder that can play the 80 games Buxton will not play. The AL Central feels like it will be a winnable division again this season. The Tigers are a mess. The Royals are still re-building. The White Sox have some good pieces but as we saw last year could fall apart. The Guardians are good but beatable.

Any reliever should be able to come into the ninth inning up by three runs and get out of there with a win more often than not. The idea of a "closer" who you save for the ninth inning regardless of what is happening is kind of antiquated. Tie game, bases loaded, no one out in the seventh should be a situation for your best pitcher out of the bullpen. If you best bullpen pitcher is your closer and you refuse to bring him out except for a save, you probably will not get to use him.

There are some things that are really hard to quantify. Defense happens to be one of them. Relief pitching can also be hard. Think of the value of a reliever who you bring into a tie ballgame with no outs and bases loaded in the sixth inning and gets the next three guys out. This is obviously an important situation in the game and a valuable performance that might be lost in pitching stats (1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, not that exciting). Is the 40 save closer who only pitches the ninth when you have a lead really more valuable to a team than the reliever that has proven they can be trusted in the most important and highest leverage game situations? How do you know a reliever can be trusted in these situations?

The price for Ohtani is likely way too high for the Twins to realistically get him.

I am fine with a stop gap option at SS and see what happens with Lewis, Martin, and/or Lee can provide beyond 2023. If they can get someone who isn't a complete liability for $5-7M, why not? This also frees up a ton of money to pursue and catcher, another OF (someone who can play RF for sure), and a top end SP.

Let's look at the top of the list. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts are both going to long term deals in the $30-35M/yr range. It would not shock me if neither of these guys changes teams. Correa is probably number three behind these two in terms of free agent shortstops. Dansby Swanson is probably about the same as Correa or at least not that far behind. Beyond that you have some serviceable and cheaper options in Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias but neither of those would seem like a long term solution. Tim Anderson may not return to the White Sox, so he could be available. The question I have is how many teams are in the market for a long term (say 6 to 8 years) contract worth $30M+/year? Could the Twins get Correa again (or Turner/Bogaerts) on another short term, creative contract with a high annual value but short term? If they pursue a cheaper option, would the remaining $25-30M be spent somewhere else (pitching)? I think the FO assumes that either Royce Lewis or Austin Martin is going to be the future answer. If a player like Trea Turner fell into their laps (I doubt he will), would they pull the trigger on a 8-10 year/$250-350M deal?

Interesting article. It shows you a couple of things. First, how hard it is to actually predict which young players will actually become contributors at the Major League level. Second is that there are so many things that can derail a young players development. I would be curious to know how this stacks up to other organizations.

I am going with the Mariners. To get to the World Series, they are going to have to beat the Cheaters from Houston and then either the Evil Empire of New York or some Statue in Cleveland. Also, they have a fun group of guys that don't seem to ever quit playing. When I was watching the game yesterday, I said in the 5th when the Blue Jays were up 8-1, "well, time for Seattle to think about protecting their bullpen for tomorrow's game". Apparently, no one mentioned this idea to the Mariners. I have to respect a team that still goes all out when they are down 8-1.