How Does the Twins Outfield Get Sorted?

I wrote to a friend of mine who is a baseball nut in a good way, that with Gallo/Kepler the Twins have two great defensive outfielders and one good hitter. LOL.

This is a conundrum.

AK is too good to say he is washed up yet as a hitter.  Some how got to make sure that wrist is OK to really see what we have.

Buxton is staying
Gallo is staying given we just signed him
Wallner needs to play his way on to the team or go to St Paul
Larnach is the same as Wallner.
Celestino - man I am with you here.  Just not sure what we have.  If we trade Kepler, Celestino has to stay as the backup to Buxton.
Gordon stays as he is Super Utility+ in that he can play the outfield and the infield.
Kepler; Love the defense he brings.  This can't be understated.  But how has he not learned to improve his hitting?  I don't understand this.

So, by reckoning:
Buxton, Gallo, Gordon, Celestino and one of Larnach, Wallner, AK with Kepler being packaged for something good otherwise we keep him.

Not an easy sorting to be honest.

I would like to see:
Buxton, AK, Wallner, Larnach, Celestino (but Gallo has to stay.  If he can just improve his BA and reduce his SOs this could be a fantastic signing, but he hasn't proven that ability yet)

 

If there's no movement, I think the 5 end up being Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Gordon, and Kirilloff...which is a bit out of balance. But Gordon can back up CF and play other positions, played well last year and showed what he could do as a hitter, and is out of options. Kirilloff gives support at 1B and if a superior hitter if healthy. Gallo & Kepler are guarantees if on the roster.

Larnach & Wallner have options, and Wallner still has things to prove (he's a poor defender and his contact rates are still worrisome). Larnach has less to prove to me, but he does need to show he's healthy. Celestino needs to show he can hit enough to be a 4th OF, and needs a little more maturity.

The MLB roster needs another RH bat who can play in the corners, which is why a Kepler move makes so much sense. But they can proceed as is without losing anyone.

With Garlick finally off the 40 man the Twins are down from 9 outfielders to 8 which is still too many outfielders to carry on the 40 man IMO.  6 would be ideal but 7 is fine.  They really just need to trade Max unless they also want to bring in a right handed bat for the outfield.  If they are fine with Farmer in a left field role then again they just need to remove one outfielder from the 40 man and they are fine.  

If the Twins do want to add a right handed bat to the outfield then they should probably look to trade Larnach or Wallner as well.  They both appear to be similar players.  I like that Larnach can hit oppo as I think that gives him a slight advantage bat wise but Wallner has the better arm.  It is a tough call on that one but I think Larnach has more trade value and if they feel they want more 40 man room then I would look to trade him as well.

Looking to next year as things stand they will likely need to add Rodriguez, Urbina, Martin and Maybe Severino so something is going to have give at some point.  Personally I think they should move one of the outfielders and the only two that make much sense to move are Kepler and Larnach.  We will see what Twins end up doing.

I consider Kirilloff the first baseman until he proves otherwise. By opening day outfielders would include Buxton, Larnach, Gallo, and Gordon (utility infielder and outfielder). Wallner( at St Paul), Celistino(at St Paul), Lewis(utility at St Paul and when he's available). That gives us 3 outfielders to start the season with Gordon in a utility role and backup. First callup would be Wallner, Celistino called up only when Buxton goes down for a 10 game injury. Lewis called up when read,y hopefully by July 1.

If there is interest in Celestino and Larnach as trade pieces with significant more value then Kepler I would be ok moving them.  
 

Celestino got the raw deal on development.  Needs time in AAA or everyday ABs. with the addition of Correa I’d guess Lewis becomes the CF, LF future option once he recovers.  Also the organizations thought on Martin.  If he is a suitable CF option.  Celestino seems to be getting passed by high level prospects  very quickly. Get value for him now if there are suitors.  
 

Larnach is another lefty bat that is very solid but has trouble with health and really doesn’t play good defense.  He would be ok to move to get a significant pitching piece.

28 minutes ago, High heat said:

If there is interest in Celestino and Larnach as trade pieces with significant more value then Kepler I would be ok moving them.  
 

Celestino got the raw deal on development.  Needs time in AAA or everyday ABs. with the addition of Correa I’d guess Lewis becomes the CF, LF future option once he recovers.  Also the organizations thought on Martin.  If he is a suitable CF option.  Celestino seems to be getting passed by high level prospects  very quickly. Get value for him now if there are suitors.  
 

Larnach is another lefty bat that is very solid but has trouble with health and really doesn’t play good defense.  He would be ok to move to get a significant pitching piece.

I agree with everything you've got here other than Larnach's defense.

Larnach and Gallo seem to have very similar defensive profiles. They're massive guys whose size almost masks their athleticism. They're both able to make plays up against the wall that smaller defenders can't get to without climbing it. The defense doesn't look flashy because they appear to be big plodding guys, but their size often make plays look more routine than they'd be for other players because of their height and reach.

From what I saw of a healthy Larnach the past 2 seasons give me confidence that with more reps at Target Field, he'll provide Kepler level defense, with a better plate approach.

Totally agree with the Celestino analysis and the plan for Lewis on his return.

Celestino is too young to give up on. Ideally a good team needs only 4 outfielders plus a utility player who can play the outfield (Gordon, in our case). Two should bat left, one of whom can play center field. Two should bat right, one of whom can play center field. I have hope that Celestino can be Buxton's RH batter counterpart in the next couple years.

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

There is nothing inherently wrong with 8 outfielders on the 40-man, so long as at least 3 and preferably 4 have minor league options so they can be sent down. I believe Celestino, Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff can all be sent to St Paul at will, with Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, and Gordon all rooted to the major league roster.

So the current array of outfielders is viable, although a bit left-heavy as we all acknowledge. There is no absolute urgency to deal Kepler or anyone else, though it's an option.

My one worry is that we have only 2 catchers on the 40-man. The first time one of the catchers gets an owie that requires multiple days of recuperation (Injured List or otherwise) someone from AAA will have to be added to the 40, and that will mean removing someone unless that injured catcher goes on the 60-day IL. Doubtful it would be a pitcher, so that means an outfielder would have to be moved somehow. That's a risk that is settled if one of the outfielders is himself injured and put on the 60-day IL, but the timing could work the wrong way and cause an unwanted move.

The 2 catchers doesn’t matter because as soon as the season starts Lewis and Paddock go on the 60 day DL and we have 2 open 40 man spots. 
Tony Walters is a very solid 3rd catcher on a minor league deal!

Let’s be clear:  Buxton played 57 games in CF. That’s only about a 1/3, and the confetti hasn’t hit the floor yet. Is that seriously enough for a “starter”?

Celestino simply wasn’t a MLB hitter last year. 
Gallo’s calling card is his bat???  A career .199 hitter???  Ok…

Gordon-Agreed. 
Kepler- It’s been a good ride. Good luck wherever you get traded to. 
Kiriloff-  IF he can play. IF his wrist holds up, he should be on roster. 
Larnach- IF he can stay healthy and learn to hit a curve ball…he could be a 5th OF. It makes more sense to send him to St Paul and find an RH upgrade (starter) who can play CF 2/3 of the games on the trade market. 

 

Buxton started 51 games last year, so Celestino stays, although it would be best for him to play every day  for the St. Paul Saints until he is needs to be called up.

Gallo and Buxton are certainties and Kirilloff has almost no value until he can show his game. I also believe he stays at first base until or unless needed elsewhere, which hopefully doesn't happen. Gordon has so much utility and improved quite a bit last year so I think he stays unless another teams puts an inordinate high value on him.

That leaves Kepler and Larnach. The Twins can just roll with what they have in fear of the bad luck of last year or these two get traded.

Wallner will start in St. Paul unless he too is overvalued by another team. I believe in Wallner and see a physical guy who is just growing into his body with enormous potential to hit for average and power while drawing walks. The K's are a concern, but I think he can only get better in the field.

Two guys who can't stay on the field.  PLUS Buxton.  Celestino's a 4th OF.  Wallner has 65 career plate appearances.  Gordon's an infielder.  Somebody's gotta DH.  Apparently, we've gotta trade Kepler cuz he bats left handed.  I always love how our fan base want's to get rid of guys when they get to the point where they're making $10 Million (not a huge amount in this day and age) and then bitch because we don't spend money. 

We break camp with 13 position players - 2 catchers (Vasquez, Jeffers), 5 infielders (Correa, Farmer, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda) and 6 outfielders.  Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, who are the six outfielders (with primary positions)?

1. Buxton (CF).
2. Gallo (RF). 
3. Gordon (LF, CF backup).  
4. Larnach (LF, RF). 
5. Kiriloff (LF, RF, 1B). 
6. Celestino (OF utility) or Wallner (RF) or new RH OF bat

First three are starters.  Any of the six (other than Celestino) could DH with Gordon able to play SS or 2B and Gallo and Kiriloff able to play 1B.

Kepler is traded. Based on spring training, Wallner or Celstino begins the season in AAA with the other (if we add a RH OF bat) and Martin (who may be the first call up given his RH bat status - don’t sleep on him, he could be above Wallner and Celestino in the OF pecking order by the end of May).
 

38 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Two guys who can't stay on the field.  PLUS Buxton.  Celestino's a 4th OF.  Wallner has 65 career plate appearances.  Gordon's an infielder.  Somebody's gotta DH.  Apparently, we've gotta trade Kepler cuz he bats left handed.  I always love how our fan base want's to get rid of guys when they get to the point where they're making $10 Million (not a huge amount in this day and age) and then bitch because we don't spend money. 

They're not getting rid of Kepler because he is due $10 million. They are spending slightly more on Gallo for an upgrade of nearly 50 points of career OPS, and an increase in power (Kepler 1 HR every 22 ABs, Gallo 1 HR every 13 ABs). Both are nearly equal defensively, with Gallo having 2 Gold Gloves, and Kepler being a finalist a couple of times. They don't need 2 guys like that on the roster, hence they trade Kepler.

As long as we never have to see our four outfielders are Cave, Contreras, Garlick and Celestino with Gordon asking for a bat.

Yes, it is a problem, especially with names ike Lewis and Martin needing a play to play, as well as decisions made sooner rather than off-the-cuff as where they will play.

I would be happy opening 2023 with Gallo and Kepler on the edges and Gordon and (I guess Garlick as the reserves. Giving Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner and Celestino fulltime work between the outfield/1B and DH in St. Paul.

Kirilloff needs to really shine, and then the decisions needs to be made where to play him. Arraez is the current 1B/DH. Lee, Lewis could be third baseman, which means a move for Miranda to 1B/DH. 

Some decisions could be made in-season. Can Kepler and Gallo shine and be tradebait with Larnach, Kiriloff, Lewis ready to step in? Where does the speedy Martin fit into the plans. Either way, the Twins 6-7-8 outfielders are better than the 7-8-9 that they had last season.

Wallner is in an interesting position. He looks like a worker, and if he holds his power, he could be the DH who could also play in the outfield for seasons to come. But, again, the Twins are looking at a prospect logjam. Who do you keep, at what cost, and in the back of your mind thinking of those still coming up thru the system (Rodriguez, Severino, Mercedes, Urbina).

4 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

Celestino - man I am with you here.  Just not sure what we have.  If we trade Kepler, Celestino has to stay as the backup to Buxton.

Celestino being the "ideal backup for Buxton" doesn't necessitate him being on the major-league roster. When Buxton needs rest, Gordon or Gallo (who the Twins FO seems to believe in as a viable part-time CF) can start, or can move to CF in the late innings. If (.....when) Buxton gets hurt, Celestino is on call at AAA.

Relax everybody.  This too will work itself out.

20 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Celestino being the "ideal backup for Buxton" doesn't necessitate him being on the major-league roster. When Buxton needs rest, Gordon or Gallo (who the Twins FO seems to believe in as a viable part-time CF) can start, or can move to CF in the late innings. If (.....when) Buxton gets hurt, Celestino is on call at AAA.

My recollection of ‘22 watching games once in a while from Cincinnati. Gordon got an opportunity in LF everyday due to OF injuries. Played well. Whenever Buxton needed a day off or if he went to the IL, Gordon played CF. Played reasonably well. As the season wore on Polanco couldn’t play 2nd so Gordon ended up there. With Kepler getting hurt - Buxton being out - Gordon forced into infield, the outfield had Jake Cave & Gilberto Celestino daily due to Zero other options.

We need a better option than Celestino for our 5th outfielder!! His age, lack of time to develop, whatever, does not matter. It’s time to win games & he’s not the answer.

Kepler is gone via trade.

Hopefully, Celestino can be part of same trade with Kepler.

Larnach has 60 games in LF, maybe 60 games at DH………Gordon plays 80 games in LF, maybe 60 games in CF……….Gallo plays 100 games in RF, maybe 15 games in CF………Buxton plays 85 games in CF, maybe 40 games at DH…………5th outfielder gets 20 games in LF (depending if we keep Kiriloff) & maybe another 60 games in RF. Would be best if 5th outfielder can bat Right handed - obvious, right?

Walner needs to develop and get at bats everyday in St. Paul. Needs to be ready when there’s an OF injury or when Gallo fails & gets DFA’d.

Need to pick up a guy OR if somebody in lower Farm System has a RH that’s 

3 hours ago, High heat said:

The 2 catchers doesn’t matter because as soon as the season starts Lewis and Paddock go on the 60 day DL and we have 2 open 40 man spots. 
Tony Walters is a very solid 3rd catcher on a minor league deal!

As is Sisco, in my opinion. I think they are well set at C. 

Aside from differing with the opening paragraph that 8 of 40 isn’t “nearly 25 percent,” I’m with Ash — it’s not a problem.

If it’s a big deal to you, change the Web page (created by the PR department, not Falvey and associates, by the way) to list Kirilloff and Gordon with the infielders. Now we’re at six outfielders on the 40. Problem solved.

If folks are healthy, assume that Celestino (and probably Wallner) are in St. Paul. Now the 26-man roster lists Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Larnach.

56 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Relax everybody.  This too will work itself out.

Agreed. It’s not a popular opinion on TD, but I like the collection of 17 hitters on the 40-man.

Operative word being “collection.” Good talent, mix of skill sets, lots of positional flexibility, blend of vets and youth.

Look, we’re not going to trade Buxton, and it’s very rare that you trade a just-signed FA (not sure I’ve ever heard) in Gallo. Among the others, if there’s a trade of them that improves the team, sure, but otherwise, this feels like a solution in search of a problem. 

Sounds like much to do about nothing to me.  Kirilloff is a 1B who can play the outfield.  If he is healthy, the infield is likely 1B Kirilloff / 2B Polanco / 3B Miranda / SS Correa with Arraez and Farmer as utility players.  Gordon can also cover the middle IF spots.  So, there are really 7.  Wallner for certain starts in AAA and Celestino likely joins him so we are down to 5.  This is not a problem at all when there are only 2 catchers and a spot is not used by a primary DH.

Should we feel bad about having depth at AAA?  If Kepler gets traded there will be an article about us being vulnerable now citing all the injuries last year.
 

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Agreed. It’s not a popular opinion on TD, but I like the collection of 17 hitters on the 40-man.

Operative word being “collection.” Good talent, mix of skill sets, lots of positional flexibility, blend of vets and youth.

Look, we’re not going to trade Buxton, and it’s very rare that you trade a just-signed FA (not sure I’ve ever heard) in Gallo. Among the others, if there’s a trade of them that improves the team, sure, but otherwise, this feels like a solution in search of a problem. 

Agreed. The only thing we actually do need is a true ace SP.  whats the real cost of getting one when you have so many unknowns of young and previously injured players. We can take time to make a trade for an ace SP because they just arent always available but we can be ready when one is available. The FO is on top of the issue and will make a deal when its best for the team. We have to figure probably 20 large uncertainties on our 40 man roster and then deal with a trade when the right one presents itself.  Our 26 man will have Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Gordon Larnack and 1/2AK on opening day.  The other half of AK will be DH/1B. Providing everyone is healthy. Celestino and wallner will be AAA until an actual injury occurs. 

First I remember reading towards the beginning of the off-season that AK's wrist bone being shaved down could impact how well he plays or even if he can play well moving forward.   Secondly all the focus seems to be on trading for a pitcher where that is a priority I would also offer perhaps AK, Larnach, and Wood-Richardson as a start to Pittsburgh for Reynolds.   He gives us a sure fire well rounded outfielder who can play all 3 outfield spots, a definite improvement and help to clear the outfield log jam.  A trade like that and Lewis returning in July to take up an outfield spot would give consistency and flexibility to the outfield.

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Agreed. It’s not a popular opinion on TD, but I like the collection of 17 hitters on the 40-man.

Operative word being “collection.” Good talent, mix of skill sets, lots of positional flexibility, blend of vets and youth.

Look, we’re not going to trade Buxton, and it’s very rare that you trade a just-signed FA (not sure I’ve ever heard) in Gallo. Among the others, if there’s a trade of them that improves the team, sure, but otherwise, this feels like a solution in search of a problem. 

Well stated.  Great view and insight.

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

There is nothing inherently wrong with 8 outfielders on the 40-man, so long as at least 3 and preferably 4 have minor league options so they can be sent down. I believe Celestino, Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff can all be sent to St Paul at will, with Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, and Gordon all rooted to the major league roster.

So the current array of outfielders is viable, although a bit left-heavy as we all acknowledge. There is no absolute urgency to deal Kepler or anyone else, though it's an option.

My one worry is that we have only 2 catchers on the 40-man. The first time one of the catchers gets an owie that requires multiple days of recuperation (Injured List or otherwise) someone from AAA will have to be added to the 40, and that will mean removing someone unless that injured catcher goes on the 60-day IL. Doubtful it would be a pitcher who gets jettisoned, so that means an outfielder would have to be moved somehow. That's a risk that is settled if one of the outfielders is himself injured first and put on the 60-day IL, but the timing could work the wrong way and cause an unwanted move.

We ran out of outfielders in 2022 so having 8 gives some sense of comfort that a slate of 4 performing at a major league level can be cobbled together at any given time.

I don't like trading away up-the-middle players or prospects, so I'm not interested in moving Celestino, even though at present he has his warts. About to turn 24, the 2023 season will be fish or cut bait time with him, I suspect.

 I heard they have said farmer is an emergency catcher ,,, 

Don't trade Kepler, his trade value is down, we won't get anything for him. Due to the shift ban, Kepler will get his swing back & his offensive #s will look much better. At that point we'll see how Larnach will have progressed. Gallo main problem isn't the shift, it's his SOs. So IMO Gallo is going down the same path as Sano & Sanchez (lot of potential but can't get out of their rut). I really don't want him take away ABs away from Gordon. I'd trade Gallo as soon as possible for whatever lottery ticket. So to start the season, I'd have Buxton, Gordon & Kepler with Gallo as 4th OF (I'd rather have Larnach). If Kiriloff is ready I'd put him at 1B. Celestino, Larnach & Wallner to AAA, due to injury or trade they'll be called up.

Celestino really isn't a tough one to figure out. He was jumped over AAA for emergency reasons, and he plays like it, so send him to AAA and find out if he can develop. If somebody asks for him in a trade, and you can get a useful return, sprain ankles jumping on it, but I'm not holding my breath. (Gallo and Kepler can both play better defense to backup Buxton.)

Kepler has little trade value, plays great defense, and really isn't worse offensively than most of the OFs mentioned here (low bar until the youngsters prove something). I'd rather have most of the youth (other than Gordon and a healthy Kirilloff, if he IS healthy) start in the minors. And force their way to the majors the old fashion way. (And if Max starts to hit more with the shift gone and increase his in-season trade value, I'd love that.) Having the younger set catch fire, and actually create a problem would be fabulous, because until they do our problem in the OF (other than Byron staying healthy) is quality, not quantity. And trades would just be ditching quantity since they are all discount bin material. (If you want a real return, you would need to trade something really valued like Polanco or Arraez or Miranda or Brooks Lee. Or pitching. And I don't want to go there yet.)