Gilberto Celestino’s Long-Term Upside

I hope they don't mess the guy up by forcing him to develop "power". Not every player has to be a HR hitter. He's done well at legging out doubles in his career.

I long for the days when a guy who could play the game of baseball was appreciated.

I am always mystified by the criticism he receives.  Force fed into the majors he has answered the call.  If he were a starter his statistics might require some hard looks, but he is 23  (almost 24) and he is handling CF when called upon - 112 games there .  Last year Buxton had only 57 games in CF and 60 the year before - 117 games - only five more than Celestino. 

Please no Gallo in CF!  

I look for him to continue to improve and I am happy to have him on the team.  

Thanks Cody for a spot on article, contrary to the negative hype that's out there. I expect him take another step this year w/ the a little more seasoning in AAA. Celestino is a very good hitter, let him develop his power on his own w/o focusing on launch angle. We don't need another SO king- Sano, Gallo, Sanchez & Jeffers are more than enough.

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

26 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

2-5 all bat left handed. (So do Kepler and Gallo.) We need a decent-hitting RH bat for the outfield. I think Celestino will be that player within the next year or two.

Celestino got off to a hot start last year but also had an unsustainable BABIP.  I didn't watch a ton of Twins games last year but when I did I saw him mainly hit singles.  I did sour on his bat as the season went on he was kind of a black hole in the lineup.  

If he doesn't develop power then to me he is a 4th outfielder at best.  Still he is a right handed outfield bat and I believe he will improve as time goes on.  As most on here are saying he should start at AAA and earn his way back up. 

15 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

2-5 all bat left handed. (So do Kepler and Gallo.) We need a decent-hitting RH bat for the outfield. I think Celestino will be that player within the next year or two.

Rodriguez is also a lefty. Buxton, Martin, Celestino and Urbina are the four right-handed bats of the nine.

So without trades or FAs, it would be up to Martin, Celestino or Urbina to be a “decent-hitting RH bat”. My money is on Martin, but Celestino could very well be that player.

I laughed hard at this one. Like a Randballs Stu post!

Gilberto mixes some physical ability to defend with a bat that does not look MLB-ready, and frankly some of the stupidest plays I've seen recently in the majors. Playing him in the minors isn't a luxury, it is the only chance he has to figure it out. (Or maybe the Twins can put a radio in his cap to tell him how many outs there are before every pitch.) Kepler and Gallo are both better options to backup Buxton (better defenders right now, and despite their issues, both better at the plate).

If Celestino has trade value, the Twins should cash in on it; if Gilberto gets 80 starts for the team this year, it probably means another OF meltdown, and another lost season. Maybe someday he gets better, but he should do it in St Paul first.

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

The trouble is - both Gallo and Kepler are still here  

Improving his baserunning awareness and throwing decisions will help.

When the Twins acquired Celestino, I was intrigued. Not blown away, but intrigued. (Duran was the prize at the time, IMO). But after his 2019 season, mostly at then LOW A Cedar Rapids, I became optimistic we got a really talented young OF with potential. He hit, got OB, stole bases, and provided XB and some HR power. What was there to not like?

And as Cody pointed out, despite missing 2020 entirely, and only 8 GAMES at high A, he began 2021 at AA. 

Two very bad things have happened to Celestino the past two years:

1] With a grand total of 8 games at A+ in 2019 and a whopping 21 games at AA he was promoted/rushed to the BIGS due to a vast array of injuries. He clearly wasn't ready. And what did he do? He went to AAA and basically raked for 49 games.

2] The Twins went in to 2022 with Garlick as their only RH OF bat, besides Buxton, which had been an obvious weakness for a couple of years. So they "trusted" the rushed and not yet ready Celestino to play a significant part on a team that was expected to compete for a post season spot. 

Sorry, not sorry, the kid has talent but had a cup of coffee at AA and 2 cups at AAA before being asked to be a productive ML OF and hitter. And despite this, he won't even turn 24yo until just before ST starts.

Honestly, if you step back for a moment and reflect, his rushed promotion has been handled in the same "p*ss-poor" manner as was Polanco. (Old but accurate reference). Polanco overcame these early issues to become a very good ML player. And "very good" might be under selling him. The very best thing the Twins could do, and should do, is ADD a RH bat better than Garlick...beating the same poor horse yet again...and let Gordon and Gallo cover CF when Buxton needs a day off. The team, the lineup needs it, and so does Celestino so he can play daily at St Paul, get his legs under him, hit and play, take everything he's learned, get better, adjust, round off the rough edges, and be ready when called on.

HIS CEILING: A starting CF for many teams, but a fill-in with Buxton entrenched. IDK if he has it in him to be a 20 HR hitter, but he's got XB pop/power in his bat, XB and SB ability, and hit and OB ability based on his milb career. (POTENTIAL starting LF for the Twins over several options, including Martin who might look better NOW).

HIS FLOOR: Everything stated above but as a 4th OF who plays great defense in all 3 spots, as well as PH, PR, and and adds decent hitting, OB, pop/power, etc, but on a 4th OF basis.

SHAME on the FO, IMO, if they ignore a RH OF bat need for the ML 2023 team and ignore the potential of a quality asset that could pay dividends with a little more development time. 

Were it not for Buxton injuries would we have even seen Celestino's MLB debut yet?  Absolutely HAVE to be patient with him.  Already a good (not great yet) CF defensively.  

IF...and it's a big if...there is any reason to bring in a more veteran 4th OF that can play CF and hit RH, it's to let Celestino play every day in St.Paul in order to develop the bat.

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The trouble is - both Gallo and Kepler are still here  

Gone by ‘24

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

SHAME on the FO, IMO, if they ignore a RH OF bat need for the ML 2023 team and ignore the potential of a quality asset that could pay dividends with a little more development time. 

That bat might be Austin Martin.

19 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

AK will man 1st base in 2024. Martin and Erod will be shuttling between mpls and st paul. Celestino will be our 5th outfielder after spending 1/3 of 2023 in St. Paul.  The kids just need more development but we will be stacked with good controllable OFs. 

19 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

AK will man 1st base in 2024. Martin and Erod will be shuttling between mpls and st paul. Celestino will be our 5th outfielder after spending 1/3 of 2023 in St. Paul.  The kids just need more development but we will be stacked with good controllable OFs. 

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs.

’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs.

With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players. 

5 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs.

’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs.

With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players. 

 

That list looks great with Correa on it but I doubt he will be here. Erod and Julien are still babies in 2024. One or both will still spend significant time in st. Paul but I do love your list! A home grown team would be awesome to see developed finally! 

Pretty obviously Celestino lost development time in the minors. If he had played regularly in the minors for 2 years with time to work on his weaknesses he would probably be ready for his role as starting center fielder. Buxton will get the nod as starter, but at most he is just a part time player with no ability to plan when he can play. Unfortunately that means keeping a center fielder on the bench ready to play most of the time but no specific games.

I don't like Celestino's lack of power and mental lapses on defense. If Martin is ready mid season (who bat's right) and proves himself I would be all for trading Celestino. But for now his ability to play centerfield will keep him here whether in the bigs or AAA waiting Buxton to get injured. 

That said, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Buxton has his first heathy full season. 

One of the few games I went to last year, maybe against the Tigers?, Celestino fielded a ball in fairly deep center running away from the play, and heaved it all the way home on the fly, where Sanchez tagged a runner out.

He does have a good arm.  Mental mistakes can be fixed, but not length on throws.  That Ben Revere, when he came up, I was like, "How can he possibly make it in the big leagues?  No length to his arm or his bat."

Put some more power in Celestino's bat and he could be a keeper. 

It's a big diamond in MLB, Christian Dior big, and you have to make plays involving great length.  That takes a MLB body.

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs.

’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs.

With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players. 

 

Celestino should be part of a trade along with, Pagan, Kepler, López for best we can get. Can’t hit the ball to left of 2nd baseman - no power - not bright on bases - OK outfielder. He got innings last year because 5 outfielders in front of him in the organization were hurt - no other reason.

2024 roster estimation:

Infield……..If Correa signs one of Lee - Lewis - Julien - Miranda will get traded due to their upside & everyday player ability. Arraez.

Catcher………Vázquez & Jeffers 

DH………Larnach (placeholder - actually a rotation)

Outfield……….Gordon - Walner - Kirilof - Rodriguez - Buxton

Kirilof & Arraez & Buxton & Walner get DH at bats…….Kirilof plays as much 1B as OF.

Payroll is $45 million OR $74 million.

Would prefer to have $105 million for our pitching staff, if needed!!! (vs. $76 million)

Definitely needs to be in St. Paul! Has speed but no clue on how to play a wall (Just like all the young Twin Outfielders). Could be a future backup.

Reading this thread reminds me of the Eduardo Escobar threads at a similar age. It isn’t unusual for an up the middle player to arrive before their bat is ready yet still develop to their potential while spending time on the bench. I would bet on Celestino in his prime years being a starting outfielder.

“The Twins need someone who can play centerfield regularly with a bat that stands up when the player has to fit into a corner outfield spot.”  And they should sign one!  Meanwhile, Celestino goes to Saint Paul to learn to be a big leaguer.