Giants, Red Sox Proving You Don’t Need These 3 Things

Nice review and feel good look at Twins possibilities.   Rookie pitchers!  Something our FO seems adverse to trying, we are more into retreads.  Let's hope that changes.

I'm on board with you Tom. Boston and SF surprised me even though I expected them to do well because they did smart moves not expensive foolish ones. Better evaluations are better than deep pockets and poor evaluations.

We are in poor shape to rebuild because of our 40 man chrunch. We are losing valuable undeveloped talent because they were left off a crowded roster. Just think of us trading away our underrated needed core for a wave of new prospects. What added problems of losing our needed prospects on waivers. New priorities need to be adapted.

Great points Tom !  And the Giants faced nearly insurmountable odds with the mighty Dodgers and the trendy Padres in their division.  And yet, the Giants won the division and in a winner take all game tonight could put a stake thru the heart of the invincible Dodgers.  The Twins on the other hand, have worthy competition in the White Sox, Indians and up and coming Tigers.  But to say the twins must "rebuild" to compete against the teams in THEIR division is just too defeatist for me.  I would say the Giants and Red Sox front offices just rang rings around Falvey and Levine last winter.  Are the Pohlads satisfied with that ?  The blueprint of what the Twins front office needs to do is pretty clear:

#1  Sign Buxton.  Sign Buxton. Sign Buxton.

#2  Either thru trades or FA bring in at least 3 SP's who are not bargain basement/garage sale caliber like Happ/Shoemaker.  We've discussed names and will continue to discuss potential Twins SP targets throughout the winter.

#3  Find a SS.  Either a lesser quality "big name" like Javy Baez or more likely someone who is a stopgap for Lewis/Martin like a Galvis or Iglesias.  Or,  trade for someone like Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. (Sosa appears to have beaten him out).

#4  Bullpen.  I believe they have plenty of arms that could work out.  I want them to find a "true" closer.  Let Rogers and Duffey have the 8th inning.  let Rogers close on occasion.  They need a back end guy who's reliable and that pushes all current arms back one inning.  Whether that's Kimbrel or someone they acquire in a trade (Bender or Floro from the Marlins) ??  

#5  Find a reliable 4th OF'er.  No more Cave.  No more Refsnyder or Garlick.  Find a RH bat that can play the OF.  Celestino MIGHT be that guy.  

Tom, you have to stop making sense. It's antithetical to off-season discussions.

Well, can we focus on what each team DID have?

1.  Good starting pitching and a deep staff generally.

2.  A deep offensive attack that stretches the other teams' pitching staff.

3.  Lots of home runs from lots of different players.

4.  And, the one attribute that is most often overlooked, forgotten and ignored because there is no way to control it: multiple veteran guys who have "career years", for whatever reason, during the same season, whether pitchers or hitters. 

40 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Great points Tom !  And the Giants faced nearly insurmountable odds with the mighty Dodgers and the trendy Padres in their division.  And yet, the Giants won the division and in a winner take all game tonight could put a stake thru the heart of the invincible Dodgers.  The Twins on the other hand, have worthy competition in the White Sox, Indians and up and coming Tigers.  But to say the twins must "rebuild" to compete against the teams in THEIR division is just too defeatist for me.  I would say the Giants and Red Sox front offices just rang rings around Falvey and Levine last winter.  Are the Pohlads satisfied with that ?  The blueprint of what the Twins front office needs to do is pretty clear:

#1  Sign Buxton.  Sign Buxton. Sign Buxton.

#2  Either thru trades or FA bring in at least 3 SP's who are not bargain basement/garage sale caliber like Happ/Shoemaker.  We've discussed names and will continue to discuss potential Twins SP targets throughout the winter.

#3  Find a SS.  Either a lesser quality "big name" like Javy Baez or more likely someone who is a stopgap for Lewis/Martin like a Galvis or Iglesias.  Or,  trade for someone like Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. (Sosa appears to have beaten him out).

#4  Bullpen.  I believe they have plenty of arms that could work out.  I want them to find a "true" closer.  Let Rogers and Duffey have the 8th inning.  let Rogers close on occasion.  They need a back end guy who's reliable and that pushes all current arms back one inning.  Whether that's Kimbrel or someone they acquire in a trade (Bender or Floro from the Marlins) ??  

#5  Find a reliable 4th OF'er.  No more Cave.  No more Refsnyder or Garlick.  Find a RH bat that can play the OF.  Celestino MIGHT be that guy.  

 

I liked your post but I do not want 3 FA starters - I would take two - even one - and start using our young guys.  Same in BP.  Point #5 is right on.  And I hope Celestino can be the guy and that Larnach corrects whatever the scouts found out to stop his production. 

Great work, Tom. Though I do wonder a bit about this:

"Houston Astros have made rebuilds work in the not-so-distant past"

Yes, it seems like in many ways the sustainable success the Rays and Astros have had recently was built off of the prospect capital that they amassed during their many down years. Essentially, build the infrastructure for development, draft high year after year, and then as your team improves trade the home-grown stars as they near free-agency for other teams' top prospects. 

This is the route the Orioles are taking, I think. They know it'll be a very long haul.

I'm not saying that this is the route I want the Twins to take, but I don't think we have anywhere near the superstar prospect capital that the Astros and Rays had as the foundation for their successful seasons. And our FO just isn't yet very good at assessing, trading for or keeping impact talent. So, we might end up taking the Orioles route after all.

1 hour ago, Old Twins Cap said:

Well, can we focus on what each team DID have?

1.  Good starting pitching and a deep staff generally.

2.  A deep offensive attack that stretches the other teams' pitching staff.

3.  Lots of home runs from lots of different players.

4.  And, the one attribute that is most often overlooked, forgotten and ignored because there is no way to control it: multiple veteran guys who have "career years", for whatever reason, during the same season, whether pitchers or hitters. 

 

 

I'd like to add these teams all have players that HAVE BEEN THER BEFORE! Not only have these players been to the play offs, they have won play off games, series and in some cases the WS. Those are the players we need. Players that dont fold under the pressure and can actually have a sense of urgency when their backs are against the wall. Thats what the Twins lack the most imo. 

The Giants rotation is good inspiration. Obviously, we would need to develop our own Logan Webb and that's tough, maybe it could be Ryan, maybe Balazovic. But Gausman, Wood, and Descalfani are 3 historically average starters who were former high rated prospects from so long ago that post hype sleeper is an understatement and all went on to have great years. Unfortunately, that's even harder since identifying 1 is hard, let alone 3. We could live with 2. Our front office found those guys in Odorizzi and Pineda and that's part of why we won 101, but there's also the misses in Perez and Shoemaker and an NA in Bailey since he got hurt. I don't count Happ or Hill since at that age it's an attempt at stability not upside. So yeah, shows that our mission this offseason of making an entire rotation does have a good ceiling if you hit an absolute jackpot. And if it fails, we just DFA them and kick off the prospect rotation debuts a little sooner with an eye towards 2023.

Another thing most of the playoff teams have in common, able to spend money, large payrolls. According to Spotrac, 2021 payrolls, 4/5 top payrolls made playoffs-Mets the exception. 2 more in next 5, and 2 more in 11-15 range. Brewers were 19 and Rays 26. There were 4 teams under 60M, Dodgers were #1 at 267M, next Yankees at 203M. The difference between the highest-Dodgers and second highest-Yankees was more than the total payroll for each of the bottom 4 teams. MLB has to address this inequity, just establishing a minimum payroll will not be enough. Somehow will need to establish more revenue sharing to bring up the lower teams.

Agree with #3 completely. I desperately want #1 to be true but I have a hard time seeing a massive turnaround next season with the work that needs to be done on the pitching side. Lip service about the intention to compete next year aside, Buxton is the fulcrum that dictates which direction this team actually goes. 

Maybe we need to define flashy? 3/4 teams mentioned were legitimately fighting for playoff spots in September. People love to clown on SD for spending and not making the postseason, but they also played in a division with 2 teams that won 100+ games. We need to move away from the notion that being able to select the player(s) you want by spending the money necessary to gain their services isn't an advantage. 

Boston has the 3rd highest payroll in baseball. A single offseason vs. the Twins' doesn't tell us much. MN can hope to be the Giants and have a ton break right for them, but that seems like a lot of what the plan was going into this year too. I also don't think the number of players signed matters. We've seen the Twins "spread the wealth," i.e. bargain shop rather than shoot for mid/high tier guys in the past, and it hasn't necessarily gone well either. It's simplistic, but really it boils down to choosing players that perform. 

8 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Great points Tom !  And the Giants faced nearly insurmountable odds with the mighty Dodgers and the trendy Padres in their division.  And yet, the Giants won the division and in a winner take all game tonight could put a stake thru the heart of the invincible Dodgers.  The Twins on the other hand, have worthy competition in the White Sox, Indians and up and coming Tigers.  But to say the twins must "rebuild" to compete against the teams in THEIR division is just too defeatist for me.  I would say the Giants and Red Sox front offices just rang rings around Falvey and Levine last winter.  Are the Pohlads satisfied with that ?  The blueprint of what the Twins front office needs to do is pretty clear:

#1  Sign Buxton.  Sign Buxton. Sign Buxton.

#2  Either thru trades or FA bring in at least 3 SP's who are not bargain basement/garage sale caliber like Happ/Shoemaker.  We've discussed names and will continue to discuss potential Twins SP targets throughout the winter.

#3  Find a SS.  Either a lesser quality "big name" like Javy Baez or more likely someone who is a stopgap for Lewis/Martin like a Galvis or Iglesias.  Or,  trade for someone like Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. (Sosa appears to have beaten him out).

#4  Bullpen.  I believe they have plenty of arms that could work out.  I want them to find a "true" closer.  Let Rogers and Duffey have the 8th inning.  let Rogers close on occasion.  They need a back end guy who's reliable and that pushes all current arms back one inning.  Whether that's Kimbrel or someone they acquire in a trade (Bender or Floro from the Marlins) ??  

#5  Find a reliable 4th OF'er.  No more Cave.  No more Refsnyder or Garlick.  Find a RH bat that can play the OF.  Celestino MIGHT be that guy.  

 

I find it difficult to believe that you read the article that @Tom Froemming wrote, then come out of the gate firing with SIGN BUXTON!

That is the complete opposite of the strategy the Red Sox employed with their big star to get them big into WS contention. If we are to learn anything about how the Red Sox (the Giants have not been faced with this dilemma recently) would approach the Buxton situation for the betterment of their teams competitiveness, it would be to trade Buxton this offseason. That is a big bright neon lights kinda obvious, if you think emulating the Red Sox is a good idea. 

Yes, it's going to be extremely unpopular, but if the Twins can acquire a package in return  for Buxton that is similar to what the Sox got for Betts, it will make the Twins a more competitive team than keeping him. 

It would also bum me out until the Twins started winning again, but if 2023 sees a dramatic turnaround, it's worth it.

Also, neither of these teams has any high end bullpen talent. They both basically have no strengths, but also no weaknesses, when it comes to the pen. Every guy falls somewhere between 3.20 and 4.20 ERA talent. So another lesson is to sign more Robles-like guys and less Hendricks-like guys.

Sorry to rag on you, but you essentially say "screw it" to the Red Sox/Giants strategy to team building and I'd rather use this thread to discuss what some common, obvious strategies are that these two teams used to build contenders. It's not that I disagree with you, but it seems to miss the point of the original article.

One thing that seems to be more than a strategy, but really an edict: don't acquire SP after their 31st birthday. 

The only exception to this rule on either roster is Garrett Richards, who was quickly moved to the pen once June 2nd rolled around. 

Other than Richards, every SP was acquired before they turned 31. Some guys are older, such as Johnny Cueto and Chris Sale, but they were all acquired prior to their 31st birthday. Some were barrel scraper acquisitions, such as Martin Perez and Anthony DiSclefani, some were superstars, such as Cueto and Sale, and some were mid-level SP such as Kevin Gaussman and Nathan Eovaldi. 

This Twins FO has acquired three SP that were under 31, Odo, Pineda, and Martin Perez. I would argue that two of those three have been the best SP acquisitions this FO has made to date. 

This seems like an emulatable and repeatable strategy. Let's see if Falvine thinks so too.

Absolutely agree with this OP 100%

1] I've thought all along this team needs to re-tool and not re-build. Losing Maeda really hurts and makes said re-tool a lot harder. But when I look at the position player portion of thisLet team I'm still excited. Granted there were some down years for some if the guys. But with a couple rebounds, just a little better luck injury wise, and the continued development of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino and the debut of Miranda I think there is still a lot of offensive potential.

2] Let's face it, even if the Twins were to max out their payroll, to around $150M, they simply can't make the SPLASH moves very often that other larger  market teams can. Which is why they just have to be smart. Have they always been so? No. But the Odorizzi, Maeda and Cruz moves WERE. Most of the trade returns they've made look solid and a couple of the guys are starting to make their presence known. Yes, they can make a splash here and there. But again, it's about being smart. And they are going to have to be really, really smart this offseason in regard to the rotation. They have room for one big move there, but doubtful they can make two.

3] The previous years this group has done a really solid job of building the pen without spending a ton of $. And they seem to tweak things as they go along and have even better second halves. While the 2021 pen just imploded the first half, it was put together in a way that SEEMED smart initially. And boy was it a better bullpen the second half. They absolutely need one really good arm for the back of the pen. And maybe they need another smaller Clippard or Robles type of addition. (Not sure it's necessary but wouldn't hurt). But with that one good addition, I'm encouraged.

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I liked your post but I do not want 3 FA starters - I would take two - even one - and start using our young guys.  Same in BP.  Point #5 is right on.  And I hope Celestino can be the guy and that Larnach corrects whatever the scouts found out to stop his production. 

Mike, I can't really disagree with you. And I don't want to for sure. But I'm afraid I'm kind of forced to. I think some of the young arms could be up and ready in as little as half a year, Balazovic, Winder, Sands and hopefully Duran, etc. But we have to have a full rotation to begin the season. Now, they don't HAVE to sign three FA. It might be two and a trade for a third, but they need arms.

I think Pineda is a virtual lock for 1yr around $8M. I almost don't count him as a FA because it's really just keeping one of our own. But he's really a #3. I think Ryan and Ober are near locks. And I still think a healthy Dobber is going to play a real part in 2022 at some point. And the Twins have more thN enough $ available to make ONE big FA signing, and I'm still thinking Stoman is just an obvious choice. 

But they still need one more guy to help front the rotation. Could be a trade. Could be another 1yr deal on a rebound or "prove it" kind of deal for someone coming off a disappointing year. But they just have to add two guys to Pineda, Ryan and Ober, don't they?

55 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Mike, I can't really disagree with you. And I don't want to for sure. But I'm afraid I'm kind of forced to. I think some of the young arms could be up and ready in as little as half a year, Balazovic, Winder, Sands and hopefully Duran, etc. But we have to have a full rotation to begin the season. Now, they don't HAVE to sign three FA. It might be two and a trade for a third, but they need arms.

I think Pineda is a virtual lock for 1yr around $8M. I almost don't count him as a FA because it's really just keeping one of our own. But he's really a #3. I think Ryan and Ober are near locks. And I still think a healthy Dobber is going to play a real part in 2022 at some point. And the Twins have more thN enough $ available to make ONE big FA signing, and I'm still thinking Stoman is just an obvious choice. 

But they still need one more guy to help front the rotation. Could be a trade. Could be another 1yr deal on a rebound or "prove it" kind of deal for someone coming off a disappointing year. But they just have to add two guys to Pineda, Ryan and Ober, don't they?

Your reasoning is sound, but I think the Rays showed that you do not need a big signing if you are bringing up quality arms. 

If you don't add a couple or three quality arms, you are punting on 2022.  I agree we need to look at the young pitchers, but the bulk of them did not pitch major innings in 2021.  You must assume most will be on innings limits in 2022 (starters).  Relievers are mainly another year away.  We might get 1 - 2 in 2022, but counting on them is dangerous. 

That being said, we are going to have to look at a lot of them next year, because 40 man roster crunch is going to get us, and we can't afford to give away more talent.  That may mean making a riskier trade or two to send out more players and get closer players to the majors back.

mikelink45:  I should have probably made this more clear in my post.  I would TRADE for two "good, young, starting pitchers" and only sign one FA for "somewhat" big bucks.  Someone like Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez etc...

Minny505:  I don't mind your comment at all.  You're not attacking "ME" you're pointing out a "flaw" in my logic.  I rec'd you for that.  I'd just clarify that even though I liked Tom's original post, I may not agree with 100% of it.  I am NOT opposed to trading Buxton if it improves the team.  But if I'm using Baseball Trade Values Buxton is terribly undervalued right now.  We're not getting CJ Abrams for him straight up, much less have them throw in Mackenzie Gore.  The Red Sox moved on from Betts, and it's worked out.  But they still haven't really seen tangible value for the trade at the major league level other than Verdugo, who had a "decent" but not an "outstanding" season.  I just believe the Twins MUST sign Buxton.  it's why I listed it #1 and emphasized it.  But in a winnable division like the A.L. Central and only this season's disappointing last place finish following two consecutive division crowns, I don't want a major rebuild and I think the opportunity is there for this front office to re-tool and compete in 2022.       

I have long said to be successful in baseball you need to build a quality team across the board not just try and have the top pitcher or few hitters.  Look at Angels, they have had the best player in all of baseball for a long time but have not won.  They have had a few other top guys and still could not put together winning teams.  You need minor league depth too.  Supplementing your team via trade and FA is important but you need to build the core through your organization no matter who you are.  

I have always felt baseball more than any other sport having solid guys across the board will get you much further than a few top guys filling in the rest.  If you get lucky and you have some top guys come through your system great, but if you expect to just go out and drop tons of money on FA and expect results that hardly works out.  

On 10/15/2021 at 8:10 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

...I'd just clarify that even though I liked Tom's original post, I may not agree with 100% of it...

and I liked your post for this part

On 10/15/2021 at 6:10 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

mikelink45:  I should have probably made this more clear in my post.  I would TRADE for two "good, young, starting pitchers" and only sign one FA for "somewhat" big bucks.  Someone like Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez etc...

Minny505:  I don't mind your comment at all.  You're not attacking "ME" you're pointing out a "flaw" in my logic.  I rec'd you for that.  I'd just clarify that even though I liked Tom's original post, I may not agree with 100% of it.  I am NOT opposed to trading Buxton if it improves the team.  But if I'm using Baseball Trade Values Buxton is terribly undervalued right now.  We're not getting CJ Abrams for him straight up, much less have them throw in Mackenzie Gore.  The Red Sox moved on from Betts, and it's worked out.  But they still haven't really seen tangible value for the trade at the major league level other than Verdugo, who had a "decent" but not an "outstanding" season.  I just believe the Twins MUST sign Buxton.  it's why I listed it #1 and emphasized it.  But in a winnable division like the A.L. Central and only this season's disappointing last place finish following two consecutive division crowns, I don't want a major rebuild and I think the opportunity is there for this front office to re-tool and compete in 2022.       

@TopGunn#22, I love you fella. Thank you for taking my comment in the spirit it was intended. I'm so used to internet names freaking out at suggesting an opposing viewpoint. 

I am ambivalent to trading vs signing Buxton. It's like voting between a Democrat or a Republican. The path that we take is not likely to change the overall trajectory of the institution, but I certainly have the path that would bring me more temporary happiness, even if the end result is worse. 

Again, thank you for being a good human being behind your keyboard.